notebooks/02-analyze-senate-voter-power-index.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Analyze FiveThirtyEight Voter Power Index"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import pandas as pd"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Load \"Voter Power Index\" scores"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "voter_power_index = pd.read_csv(\"../data/fivethirtyeight/senate-voter-power-index.csv\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "usps_state = {\n",
    "    \"AZ\": \"ARIZONA\",\n",
    "    \"CA\": \"CALIFORNIA\",\n",
    "    \"CT\": \"CONNECTICUT\",\n",
    "    \"DE\": \"DELAWARE\",\n",
    "    \"FL\": \"FLORIDA\",\n",
    "    \"HI\": \"HAWAII\",\n",
    "    \"IN\": \"INDIANA\",\n",
    "    \"MA\": \"MASSACHUSETTS\",\n",
    "    \"MD\": \"MARYLAND\",\n",
    "    \"ME\": \"MAINE\",\n",
    "    \"MI\": \"MICHIGAN\",\n",
    "    \"MN\": \"MINNESOTA\",\n",
    "    \"MO\": \"MISSOURI\",\n",
    "    \"MS\": \"MISSISSIPPI\",\n",
    "    \"MT\": \"MONTANA\",\n",
    "    \"ND\": \"NORTH DAKOTA\",\n",
    "    \"NE\": \"NEBRASKA\",\n",
    "    \"NJ\": \"NEW JERSEY\",\n",
    "    \"NM\": \"NEW MEXICO\",\n",
    "    \"NV\": \"NEVADA\",\n",
    "    \"NY\": \"NEW YORK\",\n",
    "    \"OH\": \"OHIO\",\n",
    "    \"PA\": \"PENNSYLVANIA\",\n",
    "    \"RI\": \"RHODE ISLAND\",\n",
    "    \"TN\": \"TENNESSEE\",\n",
    "    \"TX\": \"TEXAS\",\n",
    "    \"UT\": \"UTAH\",\n",
    "    \"VA\": \"VIRGINIA\",\n",
    "    \"VT\": \"VERMONT\",\n",
    "    \"WA\": \"WASHINGTON\",\n",
    "    \"WI\": \"WISCONSIN\",\n",
    "    \"WV\": \"WEST VIRGINIA\",\n",
    "    \"WY\": \"WYOMING\"\n",
    "}"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "voter_power_index[\"state_name\"] = voter_power_index[\"state\"].apply(usps_state.get)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
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       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>state</th>\n",
       "      <th>vpi</th>\n",
       "      <th>state_name</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>AZ</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.830486</td>\n",
       "      <td>ARIZONA</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>CA</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>CALIFORNIA</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>CT</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.067179</td>\n",
       "      <td>CONNECTICUT</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>DE</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.078927</td>\n",
       "      <td>DELAWARE</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>FL</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.989972</td>\n",
       "      <td>FLORIDA</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "  state       vpi   state_name\n",
       "0    AZ  3.830486      ARIZONA\n",
       "1    CA  0.000000   CALIFORNIA\n",
       "2    CT  0.067179  CONNECTICUT\n",
       "3    DE  0.078927     DELAWARE\n",
       "4    FL  0.989972      FLORIDA"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 5,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "voter_power_index.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "assert voter_power_index[\"state_name\"].isnull().sum() == 0"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Load state registered voter counts, by demographic\n",
    "\n",
    "Note: Population and registered-voter counts are *thousands*."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "demo_by_state = pd.read_excel(\n",
    "    \"../data/census/table04b.xls\",\n",
    "    skiprows = 4,\n",
    "    skipfooter = 5,\n",
    "    na_values = [ \"-\" ]\n",
    ")\n",
    "\n",
    "demo_by_state.columns = [\n",
    "   \"state\", \"demographic\", \"total_pop\", \"total_citizen_pop\", \"total_registered\", \n",
    "   \"pct_registered\", \"moe_registered\", \"pct_registered_citizen\", \n",
    "   \"moe_registered_citizen\", \"total_voted\", \"pct_voted\", \"moe_voted\", \n",
    "   \"percent_voted_citizen\", \"moe_voted_citizen\"\n",
    "]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>state</th>\n",
       "      <th>demographic</th>\n",
       "      <th>total_pop</th>\n",
       "      <th>total_citizen_pop</th>\n",
       "      <th>total_registered</th>\n",
       "      <th>pct_registered</th>\n",
       "      <th>moe_registered</th>\n",
       "      <th>pct_registered_citizen</th>\n",
       "      <th>moe_registered_citizen</th>\n",
       "      <th>total_voted</th>\n",
       "      <th>pct_voted</th>\n",
       "      <th>moe_voted</th>\n",
       "      <th>percent_voted_citizen</th>\n",
       "      <th>moe_voted_citizen</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>US</td>\n",
       "      <td>Total</td>\n",
       "      <td>245502</td>\n",
       "      <td>224059</td>\n",
       "      <td>157596.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>64.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>70.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>137537.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>56</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>61.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>Male</td>\n",
       "      <td>118488</td>\n",
       "      <td>107554</td>\n",
       "      <td>73761.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>62.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>68.6</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>63801.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>53.8</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>59.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>Female</td>\n",
       "      <td>127013</td>\n",
       "      <td>116505</td>\n",
       "      <td>83835.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>66</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>72</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>73735.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>63.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>White alone</td>\n",
       "      <td>192129</td>\n",
       "      <td>177865</td>\n",
       "      <td>127463.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>66.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>71.7</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>111891.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>62.9</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>White non-Hispanic alone</td>\n",
       "      <td>157395</td>\n",
       "      <td>154450</td>\n",
       "      <td>114151.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>72.5</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>73.9</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>100849.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>64.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>65.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "  state               demographic  total_pop  total_citizen_pop  \\\n",
       "0    US                     Total     245502             224059   \n",
       "1   NaN                      Male     118488             107554   \n",
       "2   NaN                    Female     127013             116505   \n",
       "3   NaN               White alone     192129             177865   \n",
       "4   NaN  White non-Hispanic alone     157395             154450   \n",
       "\n",
       "   total_registered pct_registered moe_registered pct_registered_citizen  \\\n",
       "0          157596.0           64.2            0.3                   70.3   \n",
       "1           73761.0           62.3            0.4                   68.6   \n",
       "2           83835.0             66            0.4                     72   \n",
       "3          127463.0           66.3            0.3                   71.7   \n",
       "4          114151.0           72.5            0.3                   73.9   \n",
       "\n",
       "  moe_registered_citizen  total_voted pct_voted moe_voted  \\\n",
       "0                    0.3     137537.0        56       0.3   \n",
       "1                    0.4      63801.0      53.8       0.4   \n",
       "2                    0.4      73735.0      58.1       0.4   \n",
       "3                    0.3     111891.0      58.2       0.3   \n",
       "4                    0.3     100849.0      64.1       0.4   \n",
       "\n",
       "  percent_voted_citizen moe_voted_citizen  \n",
       "0                  61.4               0.3  \n",
       "1                  59.3               0.5  \n",
       "2                  63.3               0.4  \n",
       "3                  62.9               0.4  \n",
       "4                  65.3               0.4  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 8,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "demo_by_state.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "demo_by_state[\"state\"] = demo_by_state[\"state\"].fillna(method=\"ffill\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>state</th>\n",
       "      <th>demographic</th>\n",
       "      <th>total_pop</th>\n",
       "      <th>total_citizen_pop</th>\n",
       "      <th>total_registered</th>\n",
       "      <th>pct_registered</th>\n",
       "      <th>moe_registered</th>\n",
       "      <th>pct_registered_citizen</th>\n",
       "      <th>moe_registered_citizen</th>\n",
       "      <th>total_voted</th>\n",
       "      <th>pct_voted</th>\n",
       "      <th>moe_voted</th>\n",
       "      <th>percent_voted_citizen</th>\n",
       "      <th>moe_voted_citizen</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>US</td>\n",
       "      <td>Total</td>\n",
       "      <td>245502</td>\n",
       "      <td>224059</td>\n",
       "      <td>157596.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>64.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>70.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>137537.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>56</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>61.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>US</td>\n",
       "      <td>Male</td>\n",
       "      <td>118488</td>\n",
       "      <td>107554</td>\n",
       "      <td>73761.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>62.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>68.6</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>63801.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>53.8</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>59.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>US</td>\n",
       "      <td>Female</td>\n",
       "      <td>127013</td>\n",
       "      <td>116505</td>\n",
       "      <td>83835.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>66</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>72</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>73735.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>63.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>US</td>\n",
       "      <td>White alone</td>\n",
       "      <td>192129</td>\n",
       "      <td>177865</td>\n",
       "      <td>127463.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>66.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>71.7</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>111891.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>62.9</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>US</td>\n",
       "      <td>White non-Hispanic alone</td>\n",
       "      <td>157395</td>\n",
       "      <td>154450</td>\n",
       "      <td>114151.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>72.5</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>73.9</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>100849.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>64.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>65.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "  state               demographic  total_pop  total_citizen_pop  \\\n",
       "0    US                     Total     245502             224059   \n",
       "1    US                      Male     118488             107554   \n",
       "2    US                    Female     127013             116505   \n",
       "3    US               White alone     192129             177865   \n",
       "4    US  White non-Hispanic alone     157395             154450   \n",
       "\n",
       "   total_registered pct_registered moe_registered pct_registered_citizen  \\\n",
       "0          157596.0           64.2            0.3                   70.3   \n",
       "1           73761.0           62.3            0.4                   68.6   \n",
       "2           83835.0             66            0.4                     72   \n",
       "3          127463.0           66.3            0.3                   71.7   \n",
       "4          114151.0           72.5            0.3                   73.9   \n",
       "\n",
       "  moe_registered_citizen  total_voted pct_voted moe_voted  \\\n",
       "0                    0.3     137537.0        56       0.3   \n",
       "1                    0.4      63801.0      53.8       0.4   \n",
       "2                    0.4      73735.0      58.1       0.4   \n",
       "3                    0.3     111891.0      58.2       0.3   \n",
       "4                    0.3     100849.0      64.1       0.4   \n",
       "\n",
       "  percent_voted_citizen moe_voted_citizen  \n",
       "0                  61.4               0.3  \n",
       "1                  59.3               0.5  \n",
       "2                  63.3               0.4  \n",
       "3                  62.9               0.4  \n",
       "4                  65.3               0.4  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 10,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "demo_by_state.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Join the two datasets"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "joined = pd.merge(\n",
    "    demo_by_state,\n",
    "    voter_power_index,\n",
    "    left_on = \"state\",\n",
    "    right_on = \"state_name\",\n",
    "    how = \"left\",\n",
    "    suffixes = [\"\", \"_vpi\"]\n",
    ").dropna(subset = [\"vpi\"])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>33</th>\n",
       "      <th>34</th>\n",
       "      <th>35</th>\n",
       "      <th>36</th>\n",
       "      <th>37</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>state</th>\n",
       "      <td>ARIZONA</td>\n",
       "      <td>ARIZONA</td>\n",
       "      <td>ARIZONA</td>\n",
       "      <td>ARIZONA</td>\n",
       "      <td>ARIZONA</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>demographic</th>\n",
       "      <td>Total</td>\n",
       "      <td>Male</td>\n",
       "      <td>Female</td>\n",
       "      <td>White alone</td>\n",
       "      <td>White non-Hispanic alone</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>total_pop</th>\n",
       "      <td>5196</td>\n",
       "      <td>2525</td>\n",
       "      <td>2671</td>\n",
       "      <td>4471</td>\n",
       "      <td>2940</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>total_citizen_pop</th>\n",
       "      <td>4585</td>\n",
       "      <td>2256</td>\n",
       "      <td>2329</td>\n",
       "      <td>3950</td>\n",
       "      <td>2875</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>total_registered</th>\n",
       "      <td>3145</td>\n",
       "      <td>1485</td>\n",
       "      <td>1660</td>\n",
       "      <td>2773</td>\n",
       "      <td>2145</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>pct_registered</th>\n",
       "      <td>60.5</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.8</td>\n",
       "      <td>62.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>62</td>\n",
       "      <td>73</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>moe_registered</th>\n",
       "      <td>2.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.7</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>pct_registered_citizen</th>\n",
       "      <td>68.6</td>\n",
       "      <td>65.8</td>\n",
       "      <td>71.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>70.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>74.6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>moe_registered_citizen</th>\n",
       "      <td>2.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.7</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>total_voted</th>\n",
       "      <td>2769</td>\n",
       "      <td>1273</td>\n",
       "      <td>1496</td>\n",
       "      <td>2480</td>\n",
       "      <td>1963</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>pct_voted</th>\n",
       "      <td>53.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>50.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>56</td>\n",
       "      <td>55.5</td>\n",
       "      <td>66.8</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>moe_voted</th>\n",
       "      <td>2.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.5</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.9</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>percent_voted_citizen</th>\n",
       "      <td>60.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>56.5</td>\n",
       "      <td>64.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>62.8</td>\n",
       "      <td>68.3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>moe_voted_citizen</th>\n",
       "      <td>2.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.5</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.5</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.9</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>state_vpi</th>\n",
       "      <td>AZ</td>\n",
       "      <td>AZ</td>\n",
       "      <td>AZ</td>\n",
       "      <td>AZ</td>\n",
       "      <td>AZ</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>vpi</th>\n",
       "      <td>3.83049</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.83049</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.83049</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.83049</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.83049</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>state_name</th>\n",
       "      <td>ARIZONA</td>\n",
       "      <td>ARIZONA</td>\n",
       "      <td>ARIZONA</td>\n",
       "      <td>ARIZONA</td>\n",
       "      <td>ARIZONA</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                             33       34       35           36  \\\n",
       "state                   ARIZONA  ARIZONA  ARIZONA      ARIZONA   \n",
       "demographic               Total     Male   Female  White alone   \n",
       "total_pop                  5196     2525     2671         4471   \n",
       "total_citizen_pop          4585     2256     2329         3950   \n",
       "total_registered           3145     1485     1660         2773   \n",
       "pct_registered             60.5     58.8     62.2           62   \n",
       "moe_registered              2.2      3.2      3.1          2.4   \n",
       "pct_registered_citizen     68.6     65.8     71.3         70.2   \n",
       "moe_registered_citizen      2.3      3.3      3.1          2.4   \n",
       "total_voted                2769     1273     1496         2480   \n",
       "pct_voted                  53.3     50.4       56         55.5   \n",
       "moe_voted                   2.3      3.3      3.2          2.5   \n",
       "percent_voted_citizen      60.4     56.5     64.2         62.8   \n",
       "moe_voted_citizen           2.4      3.5      3.3          2.5   \n",
       "state_vpi                    AZ       AZ       AZ           AZ   \n",
       "vpi                     3.83049  3.83049  3.83049      3.83049   \n",
       "state_name              ARIZONA  ARIZONA  ARIZONA      ARIZONA   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                              37  \n",
       "state                                    ARIZONA  \n",
       "demographic             White non-Hispanic alone  \n",
       "total_pop                                   2940  \n",
       "total_citizen_pop                           2875  \n",
       "total_registered                            2145  \n",
       "pct_registered                                73  \n",
       "moe_registered                               2.7  \n",
       "pct_registered_citizen                      74.6  \n",
       "moe_registered_citizen                       2.7  \n",
       "total_voted                                 1963  \n",
       "pct_voted                                   66.8  \n",
       "moe_voted                                    2.9  \n",
       "percent_voted_citizen                       68.3  \n",
       "moe_voted_citizen                            2.9  \n",
       "state_vpi                                     AZ  \n",
       "vpi                                      3.83049  \n",
       "state_name                               ARIZONA  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 12,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "joined.head().T"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "joined[\"demo_power\"] = joined[\"total_registered\"] * joined[\"vpi\"]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>total_registered</th>\n",
       "      <th>vpi</th>\n",
       "      <th>demo_power</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>state</th>\n",
       "      <th>demographic</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>TENNESSEE</th>\n",
       "      <th>White non-Hispanic alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>2601.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.709810</td>\n",
       "      <td>12250.215810</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>NORTH DAKOTA</th>\n",
       "      <th>White non-Hispanic alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>399.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>29.625290</td>\n",
       "      <td>11820.490710</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>MISSOURI</th>\n",
       "      <th>White non-Hispanic alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>2832.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.607548</td>\n",
       "      <td>10216.575936</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>NEVADA</th>\n",
       "      <th>White non-Hispanic alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>879.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.799970</td>\n",
       "      <td>9493.173630</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>TEXAS</th>\n",
       "      <th>White non-Hispanic alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>6822.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.309738</td>\n",
       "      <td>8935.032636</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>ARIZONA</th>\n",
       "      <th>White non-Hispanic alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>2145.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.830486</td>\n",
       "      <td>8216.392470</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>FLORIDA</th>\n",
       "      <th>White non-Hispanic alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>6432.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.989972</td>\n",
       "      <td>6367.501190</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>MISSISSIPPI</th>\n",
       "      <th>White non-Hispanic alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>1056.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.337465</td>\n",
       "      <td>5636.363040</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>INDIANA</th>\n",
       "      <th>White non-Hispanic alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>2832.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.238373</td>\n",
       "      <td>3507.072336</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>TEXAS</th>\n",
       "      <th>Hispanic (of any race)</th>\n",
       "      <td>2654.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.309738</td>\n",
       "      <td>3476.044652</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>MISSISSIPPI</th>\n",
       "      <th>Black alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>632.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.337465</td>\n",
       "      <td>3373.277880</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>MONTANA</th>\n",
       "      <th>White non-Hispanic alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>532.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.818740</td>\n",
       "      <td>3095.569680</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>WEST VIRGINIA</th>\n",
       "      <th>White non-Hispanic alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>860.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.154491</td>\n",
       "      <td>2712.862260</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>NEVADA</th>\n",
       "      <th>Hispanic (of any race)</th>\n",
       "      <td>234.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.799970</td>\n",
       "      <td>2527.192980</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>ARIZONA</th>\n",
       "      <th>Hispanic (of any race)</th>\n",
       "      <td>654.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.830486</td>\n",
       "      <td>2505.137844</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>NEBRASKA</th>\n",
       "      <th>White non-Hispanic alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>882.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.829602</td>\n",
       "      <td>2495.708964</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>TENNESSEE</th>\n",
       "      <th>Black alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>519.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.709810</td>\n",
       "      <td>2444.391390</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>TEXAS</th>\n",
       "      <th>Black alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>1724.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.309738</td>\n",
       "      <td>2257.988312</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>MINNESOTA</th>\n",
       "      <th>White non-Hispanic alone</th>\n",
       "      <td>2680.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.691564</td>\n",
       "      <td>1853.391520</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>FLORIDA</th>\n",
       "      <th>Hispanic (of any race)</th>\n",
       "      <td>1779.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.989972</td>\n",
       "      <td>1761.160544</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                                        total_registered        vpi  \\\n",
       "state         demographic                                             \n",
       "TENNESSEE     White non-Hispanic alone            2601.0   4.709810   \n",
       "NORTH DAKOTA  White non-Hispanic alone             399.0  29.625290   \n",
       "MISSOURI      White non-Hispanic alone            2832.0   3.607548   \n",
       "NEVADA        White non-Hispanic alone             879.0  10.799970   \n",
       "TEXAS         White non-Hispanic alone            6822.0   1.309738   \n",
       "ARIZONA       White non-Hispanic alone            2145.0   3.830486   \n",
       "FLORIDA       White non-Hispanic alone            6432.0   0.989972   \n",
       "MISSISSIPPI   White non-Hispanic alone            1056.0   5.337465   \n",
       "INDIANA       White non-Hispanic alone            2832.0   1.238373   \n",
       "TEXAS         Hispanic (of any race)              2654.0   1.309738   \n",
       "MISSISSIPPI   Black alone                          632.0   5.337465   \n",
       "MONTANA       White non-Hispanic alone             532.0   5.818740   \n",
       "WEST VIRGINIA White non-Hispanic alone             860.0   3.154491   \n",
       "NEVADA        Hispanic (of any race)               234.0  10.799970   \n",
       "ARIZONA       Hispanic (of any race)               654.0   3.830486   \n",
       "NEBRASKA      White non-Hispanic alone             882.0   2.829602   \n",
       "TENNESSEE     Black alone                          519.0   4.709810   \n",
       "TEXAS         Black alone                         1724.0   1.309738   \n",
       "MINNESOTA     White non-Hispanic alone            2680.0   0.691564   \n",
       "FLORIDA       Hispanic (of any race)              1779.0   0.989972   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                          demo_power  \n",
       "state         demographic                             \n",
       "TENNESSEE     White non-Hispanic alone  12250.215810  \n",
       "NORTH DAKOTA  White non-Hispanic alone  11820.490710  \n",
       "MISSOURI      White non-Hispanic alone  10216.575936  \n",
       "NEVADA        White non-Hispanic alone   9493.173630  \n",
       "TEXAS         White non-Hispanic alone   8935.032636  \n",
       "ARIZONA       White non-Hispanic alone   8216.392470  \n",
       "FLORIDA       White non-Hispanic alone   6367.501190  \n",
       "MISSISSIPPI   White non-Hispanic alone   5636.363040  \n",
       "INDIANA       White non-Hispanic alone   3507.072336  \n",
       "TEXAS         Hispanic (of any race)     3476.044652  \n",
       "MISSISSIPPI   Black alone                3373.277880  \n",
       "MONTANA       White non-Hispanic alone   3095.569680  \n",
       "WEST VIRGINIA White non-Hispanic alone   2712.862260  \n",
       "NEVADA        Hispanic (of any race)     2527.192980  \n",
       "ARIZONA       Hispanic (of any race)     2505.137844  \n",
       "NEBRASKA      White non-Hispanic alone   2495.708964  \n",
       "TENNESSEE     Black alone                2444.391390  \n",
       "TEXAS         Black alone                2257.988312  \n",
       "MINNESOTA     White non-Hispanic alone   1853.391520  \n",
       "FLORIDA       Hispanic (of any race)     1761.160544  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 14,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "trimmed = (\n",
    "    joined[\n",
    "        ~joined[\"demographic\"].isin([\"Total\", \"Male\", \"Female\", \"White alone\"]) &\n",
    "        ~joined[\"demographic\"].str.contains(r\"combination\")\n",
    "    ]\n",
    "    .sort_values(\"demo_power\", ascending = False)\n",
    "    .set_index([\n",
    "        \"state\",\n",
    "        \"demographic\"\n",
    "    ])\n",
    "    [[\n",
    "        \"total_registered\",\n",
    "        \"vpi\",\n",
    "        \"demo_power\"\n",
    "    ]]\n",
    ")\n",
    "\n",
    "trimmed.head(20)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "*Note: \"White non-Hispanic alone\" in North Dakota is index 389, while \"Black alone or in combination\" in Mississippi is index 284*"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "3.5041556404478604"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 15,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "(\n",
    "    trimmed.loc[(\"NORTH DAKOTA\", \"White non-Hispanic alone\")][\"demo_power\"] \n",
    "    / trimmed.loc[(\"MISSISSIPPI\", \"Black alone\")][\"demo_power\"]\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "---\n",
    "\n",
    "---\n",
    "\n",
    "---"
   ]
  }
 ],
 "metadata": {
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    "name": "ipython",
    "version": 3
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