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COVID-stochastic-fitting

Repository of code and data for fitting state-level stochastic models of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States of America.

Overview

Please see website link for a description of the model, the fitting procedure, results, and more details. In brief, this repository contains the data and code needed to reproduce our work fitting an SEIR model to daily reports of SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths for 50 states in the USA. Our work relies heavily on the R package pomp.

How to generate results

There are three main routines associated with generating results:

  1. Download data and create pomp model objects for each state
  2. Fit the model to the data using the pomp::mif2 function to perform maximum likelihood estimation by iterated filtering.
  3. Simulate and project from the fitted model

Fitting the models for all 50 states is computationally demanding and requires the use of a High Performance Computing cluster. All scripts in this repository, and the instructions that follow, are set up to run on the University of Georgia's HPC. These scripts also assume you have access to the Drake Lab covid19_p resources on the GACRC sapelo2 cluster.

Workflow

Login to GACRC using the sapelo2 cluster using your uga myid and ArchPass

ssh [myid]@sapelo2.gacrc.uga.edu

Check to ensure no other job is running on the covid19_p partition (queue).

This command shows all running and recently completed jobs:

sacct-gacrc

Ensure you have most recent unacast data spline fits and code

cd ~/COVID-stochastic-fitting
git pull

if you want to change any of the initial R0 or warm start parameters:

nano ~/COVID-stochastic-fitting/code/00-CREATE-HEADER.R

  • Go down to # specify parameter initialization and mif runs for each state

  • To change wamr start parameters:

    • Go to # warm start spec for each state
    • state_full == "[state]" ~ "last", If previous fit was good, use the last run for the warm start
    • state_full == "[state]" ~ "fresh", For a fresh start for that state
    • state_full == "[state]" ~ "YYYY-MM-DD", to set a specific date for the warm start

  • To change initial R0 from default = 6 to higher or lower depending on how the previous runs went

    • Go to # R0 at beginning of epidemic for each state
    • if it looks like it isn’t ramping up quickly enough: increase R0
    • if it looks like it is ramping up too quickly: decrease R0

  • ignore Washington: this is going to be fixed by eliminating stuttering chains at the start

Copy files to temporary directory:

cd ~
cp -r COVID-stochastic-fitting/data/ cov/
cp -r COVID-stochastic-fitting/code/ cov/

If you made changes to any shell scripts in the repo, you may want to copy those over as well:

cp -r ~/COVID-stochastic-fitting/*.sh ~/cov/

Submit via slurm:

  1. To modify the email address for notification, edit the line #SBATCH [email protected] in files sub_slurm_1.sh and sub_slurm_2.sh
nano ~/cov/sub_slurm_1.sh

To modify job time allocated, edit the following line in sub_slurm_2.sh :

#SBATCH --time=1-12:00:00 # Time limit days-hrs:min:sec

  1. Submit header job to download data and create pomp model objects.:
cd ~/cov  
sbatch sub_slurm_1.sh

This script takes ~15 seconds to run. To check that it is running:

squeue --me

Make sure files have shown up:

ls

You should see directories output/ and header/ and files 00-CREATE-HEADER.Rout, covstateshdr.*.out, covstateshdr.*.err.

  1. Submit array job:
cd ~/cov  
sbatch sub_slurm_2.sh
squeue --me

        JOBID    PARTITION   NAME     USER ST  TIME  NODES NODELIST(REASON) 
xxxxxx_[16-50]   covid19_p   covstate user PD  0:00      1 (Resources) 
      xxxxxx_1   covid19_p   covstate user  R  0:08      1 d2-6 
      xxxxxx_2   covid19_p   covstate user  R  0:08      1 d2-10 
        ...

Make sure files are appearing.

ls

You should see several multi-digit numbers, and several files slurm-*_*.out

Wait at least 24 hours. You may log off. Slurm will email the user specified in the sub_slurm_2.sh once the job ends or fails.
Note: the gacrc email notification system may not always work. Log in and check on jobs manually if you don't receive expected emails.

Log back in and transfer files :

Make sure job is complete.

sacct-gacrc

...to see a list of completed and running jobs, or

squeue --me

...to see a list of running jobs only.

Transfer files, push, and cleanup :

Using shell script

If all jobs have run successfully, run the bash script saveoutput.sh.
It's ok to run this script from any directory.

bash saveoutput.sh

This script transfers the latest outputs to the github repo, and flatest full results to the working group directory on sapelo2 /work/covid19lab/. You may be asked for your github credentials. NOTE: The script does not push any code changes you may have made. If you edited any code in the ~/cov/ directory, you will need to copy it over manually to ~/COVID-stochastic-fitting if you wish to push it to the repo.

Contents of saveoutput.sh:

#!/bin/bash
# Run this script from the command line after the array job has ended on sapelo2
# >bash saveoutput.sh
cd ~/COVID-stochastic-fitting  
git pull  
cp -r ~/cov/output/current/ ~/COVID-stochastic-fitting/output/
cd ~/cov/output
LATESTDIR=$(ls -td 202* | head -1)
LATESTDIRFULL="full$(echo $LATESTDIR | sed -e 's/-//g')"
LATESTDIRFULLPATH="/work/covid19lab/full/$LATESTDIRFULL"
cp -r $LATESTDIR ~/COVID-stochastic-fitting/output/
cd /work/covid19lab/full
mkdir $LATESTDIRFULL
cp ~/cov/output/*.rds $LATESTDIRFULLPATH
cd ~/COVID-stochastic-fitting
git add --all
git commit -m "Update"
git push origin master
cd ~/cov
rm *.Rout
rm *.err
rm *.out
rm -r [0-9]*

...or manually :

If you prefer not to use the shell script saveoutput.sh, use the following manual workflow:

cd ~/COVID-stochastic-fitting  
git pull  
cd ~
cp -r ~/cov/output/current/ ~/COVID-stochastic-fitting/output/
cd ~/cov/output
ls

Note the latest directory name in the format YYYY-MM-DD, e.g. 2020-10-14. Copy that directory to the repo:

cp -r ~/cov/output/2020-10-14/ ~/COVID-stochastic-fitting/output/

The full MIF results are very large and should not be stored in the git repo. Instead, these should be transfered to the shared directory on Sapelo2:

Go to the shared directory and make a new dated folder, then transfer results into it:

cd /work/covid19lab/full
mkdir full20201123
cd ~/cov/output
cp *.rds /work/covid19lab/full/full20201123/

Push new results to github:

cd ~/COVID-stochastic-fitting
git add --all
git commit -m "Update"
git push origin master

Clean up temporary directory:

The file cleandir.sh can be used to clean up temporary files. The script may need to be copied over to the ~/cov from the repo.
This script must be run from the directory to be cleaned up.

cd ~/cov
bash cleandir.sh

This cleanup script is equivalent to :

rm *.Rout
rm *.err
rm *.out
rm -r [0-9]*

Generate reports

Basic Report generation is automated and runs twice daily. If a manual run is needed:

From local machine, cd into the local repo directory, then pull.

cd [path]/COVID-stochastic-fitting/
git pull
cd ./code
Rscript autoupdate_docs.R
git add -A
git commit -m "manual update of docs and shinydata"
git push origin master

View [repo]/docs/plots.html to see most recent fits and parameters for all states.

Generate detailed state reports

If fits over time are reuqired for a subset of states, you go can do be editing and sourcing the following script /COVID-stochastic-fitting/code/plotting/render_diagnostic_plots.R

Edit the first section to include the states for which you want detailed reports and the start and end dates for the reports. Each report will include pltos of data, fits and covariates for each date.

states <- c("Indiana", "Massachusetts", "Michigan", "New Jersey", "Ohio", "Washington")
startdate <- "2020-09-01" # Y-m-d
enddate <- format(Sys.time(), '%Y-%m-%d')

Reports appear as dated *.html files in /COVID-stochastic-fitting/docs/plots/

Change 00-CREATE-HEADER.R as needed prior to next run (see above).

Push to repo

git push origin master