Covid_Third_Wave_Forecasting/covid-19-forecasting-using-arima.ipynb

{"cells":[{"source":"<a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/shiv28/covid-19-forecasting-using-arima?scriptVersionId=89158469\" target=\"_blank\"><img align=\"left\" alt=\"Kaggle\" title=\"Open in Kaggle\" src=\"https://kaggle.com/static/images/open-in-kaggle.svg\"></a>","metadata":{},"cell_type":"markdown","outputs":[],"execution_count":0},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":1,"id":"e67e1bc8","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:40.006796Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:40.005903Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:40.0101Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:40.009487Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:06.934288Z"},"id":"bQjQjPofjok_","papermill":{"duration":0.053058,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:40.010265","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:39.957207","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[],"source":["import pandas as pd\n","import numpy as np\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":2,"id":"f1ed0583","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:40.086131Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:40.085461Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:41.829119Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:41.82989Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:06.9424Z"},"papermill":{"duration":1.785067,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:41.830944","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:40.045877","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/html":["<div>\n","<style scoped>\n","    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n","        vertical-align: middle;\n","    }\n","\n","    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n","        vertical-align: top;\n","    }\n","\n","    .dataframe thead th {\n","        text-align: right;\n","    }\n","</style>\n","<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n","  <thead>\n","    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th>iso_code</th>\n","      <th>continent</th>\n","      <th>location</th>\n","      <th>date</th>\n","      <th>total_cases</th>\n","      <th>new_cases</th>\n","      <th>new_cases_smoothed</th>\n","      <th>total_deaths</th>\n","      <th>new_deaths</th>\n","      <th>new_deaths_smoothed</th>\n","      <th>...</th>\n","      <th>female_smokers</th>\n","      <th>male_smokers</th>\n","      <th>handwashing_facilities</th>\n","      <th>hospital_beds_per_thousand</th>\n","      <th>life_expectancy</th>\n","      <th>human_development_index</th>\n","      <th>excess_mortality_cumulative_absolute</th>\n","      <th>excess_mortality_cumulative</th>\n","      <th>excess_mortality</th>\n","      <th>excess_mortality_cumulative_per_million</th>\n","    </tr>\n","  </thead>\n","  <tbody>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>0</th>\n","      <td>AFG</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>Afghanistan</td>\n","      <td>2020-02-24</td>\n","      <td>5.0</td>\n","      <td>5.0</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>37.746</td>\n","      <td>0.5</td>\n","      <td>64.83</td>\n","      <td>0.511</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>1</th>\n","      <td>AFG</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>Afghanistan</td>\n","      <td>2020-02-25</td>\n","      <td>5.0</td>\n","      <td>0.0</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>37.746</td>\n","      <td>0.5</td>\n","      <td>64.83</td>\n","      <td>0.511</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2</th>\n","      <td>AFG</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>Afghanistan</td>\n","      <td>2020-02-26</td>\n","      <td>5.0</td>\n","      <td>0.0</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>37.746</td>\n","      <td>0.5</td>\n","      <td>64.83</td>\n","      <td>0.511</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>3</th>\n","      <td>AFG</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>Afghanistan</td>\n","      <td>2020-02-27</td>\n","      <td>5.0</td>\n","      <td>0.0</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>37.746</td>\n","      <td>0.5</td>\n","      <td>64.83</td>\n","      <td>0.511</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>4</th>\n","      <td>AFG</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>Afghanistan</td>\n","      <td>2020-02-28</td>\n","      <td>5.0</td>\n","      <td>0.0</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>37.746</td>\n","      <td>0.5</td>\n","      <td>64.83</td>\n","      <td>0.511</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>...</th>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>165403</th>\n","      <td>ZWE</td>\n","      <td>Africa</td>\n","      <td>Zimbabwe</td>\n","      <td>2022-02-25</td>\n","      <td>235467.0</td>\n","      <td>500.0</td>\n","      <td>348.143</td>\n","      <td>5392.0</td>\n","      <td>2.0</td>\n","      <td>1.000</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.6</td>\n","      <td>30.7</td>\n","      <td>36.791</td>\n","      <td>1.7</td>\n","      <td>61.49</td>\n","      <td>0.571</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>165404</th>\n","      <td>ZWE</td>\n","      <td>Africa</td>\n","      <td>Zimbabwe</td>\n","      <td>2022-02-26</td>\n","      <td>235803.0</td>\n","      <td>336.0</td>\n","      <td>368.429</td>\n","      <td>5393.0</td>\n","      <td>1.0</td>\n","      <td>1.000</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.6</td>\n","      <td>30.7</td>\n","      <td>36.791</td>\n","      <td>1.7</td>\n","      <td>61.49</td>\n","      <td>0.571</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>165405</th>\n","      <td>ZWE</td>\n","      <td>Africa</td>\n","      <td>Zimbabwe</td>\n","      <td>2022-02-27</td>\n","      <td>235803.0</td>\n","      <td>0.0</td>\n","      <td>350.143</td>\n","      <td>5393.0</td>\n","      <td>0.0</td>\n","      <td>1.000</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.6</td>\n","      <td>30.7</td>\n","      <td>36.791</td>\n","      <td>1.7</td>\n","      <td>61.49</td>\n","      <td>0.571</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>165406</th>\n","      <td>ZWE</td>\n","      <td>Africa</td>\n","      <td>Zimbabwe</td>\n","      <td>2022-02-28</td>\n","      <td>236380.0</td>\n","      <td>577.0</td>\n","      <td>401.286</td>\n","      <td>5395.0</td>\n","      <td>2.0</td>\n","      <td>1.286</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.6</td>\n","      <td>30.7</td>\n","      <td>36.791</td>\n","      <td>1.7</td>\n","      <td>61.49</td>\n","      <td>0.571</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>165407</th>\n","      <td>ZWE</td>\n","      <td>Africa</td>\n","      <td>Zimbabwe</td>\n","      <td>2022-03-01</td>\n","      <td>236871.0</td>\n","      <td>491.0</td>\n","      <td>413.000</td>\n","      <td>5395.0</td>\n","      <td>0.0</td>\n","      <td>1.000</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.6</td>\n","      <td>30.7</td>\n","      <td>36.791</td>\n","      <td>1.7</td>\n","      <td>61.49</td>\n","      <td>0.571</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","  </tbody>\n","</table>\n","<p>165408 rows × 67 columns</p>\n","</div>"],"text/plain":["       iso_code continent     location        date  total_cases  new_cases  \\\n","0           AFG      Asia  Afghanistan  2020-02-24          5.0        5.0   \n","1           AFG      Asia  Afghanistan  2020-02-25          5.0        0.0   \n","2           AFG      Asia  Afghanistan  2020-02-26          5.0        0.0   \n","3           AFG      Asia  Afghanistan  2020-02-27          5.0        0.0   \n","4           AFG      Asia  Afghanistan  2020-02-28          5.0        0.0   \n","...         ...       ...          ...         ...          ...        ...   \n","165403      ZWE    Africa     Zimbabwe  2022-02-25     235467.0      500.0   \n","165404      ZWE    Africa     Zimbabwe  2022-02-26     235803.0      336.0   \n","165405      ZWE    Africa     Zimbabwe  2022-02-27     235803.0        0.0   \n","165406      ZWE    Africa     Zimbabwe  2022-02-28     236380.0      577.0   \n","165407      ZWE    Africa     Zimbabwe  2022-03-01     236871.0      491.0   \n","\n","        new_cases_smoothed  total_deaths  new_deaths  new_deaths_smoothed  \\\n","0                      NaN           NaN         NaN                  NaN   \n","1                      NaN           NaN         NaN                  NaN   \n","2                      NaN           NaN         NaN                  NaN   \n","3                      NaN           NaN         NaN                  NaN   \n","4                      NaN           NaN         NaN                  NaN   \n","...                    ...           ...         ...                  ...   \n","165403             348.143        5392.0         2.0                1.000   \n","165404             368.429        5393.0         1.0                1.000   \n","165405             350.143        5393.0         0.0                1.000   \n","165406             401.286        5395.0         2.0                1.286   \n","165407             413.000        5395.0         0.0                1.000   \n","\n","        ...  female_smokers  male_smokers  handwashing_facilities  \\\n","0       ...             NaN           NaN                  37.746   \n","1       ...             NaN           NaN                  37.746   \n","2       ...             NaN           NaN                  37.746   \n","3       ...             NaN           NaN                  37.746   \n","4       ...             NaN           NaN                  37.746   \n","...     ...             ...           ...                     ...   \n","165403  ...             1.6          30.7                  36.791   \n","165404  ...             1.6          30.7                  36.791   \n","165405  ...             1.6          30.7                  36.791   \n","165406  ...             1.6          30.7                  36.791   \n","165407  ...             1.6          30.7                  36.791   \n","\n","        hospital_beds_per_thousand  life_expectancy  human_development_index  \\\n","0                              0.5            64.83                    0.511   \n","1                              0.5            64.83                    0.511   \n","2                              0.5            64.83                    0.511   \n","3                              0.5            64.83                    0.511   \n","4                              0.5            64.83                    0.511   \n","...                            ...              ...                      ...   \n","165403                         1.7            61.49                    0.571   \n","165404                         1.7            61.49                    0.571   \n","165405                         1.7            61.49                    0.571   \n","165406                         1.7            61.49                    0.571   \n","165407                         1.7            61.49                    0.571   \n","\n","        excess_mortality_cumulative_absolute  excess_mortality_cumulative  \\\n","0                                        NaN                          NaN   \n","1                                        NaN                          NaN   \n","2                                        NaN                          NaN   \n","3                                        NaN                          NaN   \n","4                                        NaN                          NaN   \n","...                                      ...                          ...   \n","165403                                   NaN                          NaN   \n","165404                                   NaN                          NaN   \n","165405                                   NaN                          NaN   \n","165406                                   NaN                          NaN   \n","165407                                   NaN                          NaN   \n","\n","        excess_mortality  excess_mortality_cumulative_per_million  \n","0                    NaN                                      NaN  \n","1                    NaN                                      NaN  \n","2                    NaN                                      NaN  \n","3                    NaN                                      NaN  \n","4                    NaN                                      NaN  \n","...                  ...                                      ...  \n","165403               NaN                                      NaN  \n","165404               NaN                                      NaN  \n","165405               NaN                                      NaN  \n","165406               NaN                                      NaN  \n","165407               NaN                                      NaN  \n","\n","[165408 rows x 67 columns]"]},"execution_count":2,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["covid_word = pd.read_csv('../input/covidowid/owid-covid-data (1).csv')\n","covid_word"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"17dad1b2","metadata":{"id":"C3AT_2fsjolB","papermill":{"duration":0.038254,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:41.907737","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:41.869483","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["Let's study our DataSet. As you can see, it consist of 159321 rows × 67 columns. There is some missing data are observed in the DataSet. We should be sure that Python recognized types of data correctly.\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":3,"id":"d6baa720","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:41.988181Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:41.987523Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.122829Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.122065Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:08.332407Z"},"id":"O2M9TmepjolC","papermill":{"duration":0.179024,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.123034","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:41.94401","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>\n","RangeIndex: 165408 entries, 0 to 165407\n","Data columns (total 67 columns):\n"," #   Column                                      Non-Null Count   Dtype  \n","---  ------                                      --------------   -----  \n"," 0   iso_code                                    165408 non-null  object \n"," 1   continent                                   155504 non-null  object \n"," 2   location                                    165408 non-null  object \n"," 3   date                                        165408 non-null  object \n"," 4   total_cases                                 162378 non-null  float64\n"," 5   new_cases                                   162230 non-null  float64\n"," 6   new_cases_smoothed                          160247 non-null  float64\n"," 7   total_deaths                                144574 non-null  float64\n"," 8   new_deaths                                  144611 non-null  float64\n"," 9   new_deaths_smoothed                         142515 non-null  float64\n"," 10  total_cases_per_million                     161624 non-null  float64\n"," 11  new_cases_per_million                       161476 non-null  float64\n"," 12  new_cases_smoothed_per_million              159499 non-null  float64\n"," 13  total_deaths_per_million                    143833 non-null  float64\n"," 14  new_deaths_per_million                      143870 non-null  float64\n"," 15  new_deaths_smoothed_per_million             141780 non-null  float64\n"," 16  reproduction_rate                           125067 non-null  float64\n"," 17  icu_patients                                23307 non-null   float64\n"," 18  icu_patients_per_million                    23307 non-null   float64\n"," 19  hosp_patients                               24450 non-null   float64\n"," 20  hosp_patients_per_million                   24450 non-null   float64\n"," 21  weekly_icu_admissions                       5394 non-null    float64\n"," 22  weekly_icu_admissions_per_million           5394 non-null    float64\n"," 23  weekly_hosp_admissions                      10858 non-null   float64\n"," 24  weekly_hosp_admissions_per_million          10858 non-null   float64\n"," 25  new_tests                                   67006 non-null   float64\n"," 26  total_tests                                 68944 non-null   float64\n"," 27  total_tests_per_thousand                    68944 non-null   float64\n"," 28  new_tests_per_thousand                      67006 non-null   float64\n"," 29  new_tests_smoothed                          83658 non-null   float64\n"," 30  new_tests_smoothed_per_thousand             83658 non-null   float64\n"," 31  positive_rate                               78590 non-null   float64\n"," 32  tests_per_case                              78027 non-null   float64\n"," 33  tests_units                                 85981 non-null   object \n"," 34  total_vaccinations                          44858 non-null   float64\n"," 35  people_vaccinated                           42688 non-null   float64\n"," 36  people_fully_vaccinated                     40047 non-null   float64\n"," 37  total_boosters                              17241 non-null   float64\n"," 38  new_vaccinations                            37155 non-null   float64\n"," 39  new_vaccinations_smoothed                   83919 non-null   float64\n"," 40  total_vaccinations_per_hundred              44858 non-null   float64\n"," 41  people_vaccinated_per_hundred               42688 non-null   float64\n"," 42  people_fully_vaccinated_per_hundred         40047 non-null   float64\n"," 43  total_boosters_per_hundred                  17241 non-null   float64\n"," 44  new_vaccinations_smoothed_per_million       83919 non-null   float64\n"," 45  new_people_vaccinated_smoothed              82654 non-null   float64\n"," 46  new_people_vaccinated_smoothed_per_hundred  82654 non-null   float64\n"," 47  stringency_index                            129843 non-null  float64\n"," 48  population                                  164337 non-null  float64\n"," 49  population_density                          147109 non-null  float64\n"," 50  median_age                                  137068 non-null  float64\n"," 51  aged_65_older                               135582 non-null  float64\n"," 52  aged_70_older                               136333 non-null  float64\n"," 53  gdp_per_capita                              137737 non-null  float64\n"," 54  extreme_poverty                             90712 non-null   float64\n"," 55  cardiovasc_death_rate                       136019 non-null  float64\n"," 56  diabetes_prevalence                         143150 non-null  float64\n"," 57  female_smokers                              105463 non-null  float64\n"," 58  male_smokers                                104016 non-null  float64\n"," 59  handwashing_facilities                      68189 non-null   float64\n"," 60  hospital_beds_per_thousand                  122981 non-null  float64\n"," 61  life_expectancy                             154405 non-null  float64\n"," 62  human_development_index                     135494 non-null  float64\n"," 63  excess_mortality_cumulative_absolute        5696 non-null    float64\n"," 64  excess_mortality_cumulative                 5696 non-null    float64\n"," 65  excess_mortality                            5696 non-null    float64\n"," 66  excess_mortality_cumulative_per_million     5696 non-null    float64\n","dtypes: float64(62), object(5)\n","memory usage: 84.6+ MB\n"]}],"source":["covid_word.info()"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"57325158","metadata":{"id":"rR_i-AuyjolC","papermill":{"duration":0.036314,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.196933","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.160619","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["As you can see, 66 columns of COVID-19 data were recognized correctly (float64). First 4 columns and tests_units were recognized as objects. Let's investigate them:\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":4,"id":"f290397c","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.275607Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.274898Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.289131Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.289616Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:08.459048Z"},"id":"l9qfqY2SjolD","papermill":{"duration":0.056566,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.289789","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.233223","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/html":["<div>\n","<style scoped>\n","    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n","        vertical-align: middle;\n","    }\n","\n","    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n","        vertical-align: top;\n","    }\n","\n","    .dataframe thead th {\n","        text-align: right;\n","    }\n","</style>\n","<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n","  <thead>\n","    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th>iso_code</th>\n","      <th>continent</th>\n","      <th>location</th>\n","      <th>tests_units</th>\n","    </tr>\n","  </thead>\n","  <tbody>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>0</th>\n","      <td>AFG</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>Afghanistan</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>1</th>\n","      <td>AFG</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>Afghanistan</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2</th>\n","      <td>AFG</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>Afghanistan</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>3</th>\n","      <td>AFG</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>Afghanistan</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>4</th>\n","      <td>AFG</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>Afghanistan</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>...</th>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>165403</th>\n","      <td>ZWE</td>\n","      <td>Africa</td>\n","      <td>Zimbabwe</td>\n","      <td>tests performed</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>165404</th>\n","      <td>ZWE</td>\n","      <td>Africa</td>\n","      <td>Zimbabwe</td>\n","      <td>tests performed</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>165405</th>\n","      <td>ZWE</td>\n","      <td>Africa</td>\n","      <td>Zimbabwe</td>\n","      <td>tests performed</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>165406</th>\n","      <td>ZWE</td>\n","      <td>Africa</td>\n","      <td>Zimbabwe</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>165407</th>\n","      <td>ZWE</td>\n","      <td>Africa</td>\n","      <td>Zimbabwe</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","  </tbody>\n","</table>\n","<p>165408 rows × 4 columns</p>\n","</div>"],"text/plain":["       iso_code continent     location      tests_units\n","0           AFG      Asia  Afghanistan              NaN\n","1           AFG      Asia  Afghanistan              NaN\n","2           AFG      Asia  Afghanistan              NaN\n","3           AFG      Asia  Afghanistan              NaN\n","4           AFG      Asia  Afghanistan              NaN\n","...         ...       ...          ...              ...\n","165403      ZWE    Africa     Zimbabwe  tests performed\n","165404      ZWE    Africa     Zimbabwe  tests performed\n","165405      ZWE    Africa     Zimbabwe  tests performed\n","165406      ZWE    Africa     Zimbabwe              NaN\n","165407      ZWE    Africa     Zimbabwe              NaN\n","\n","[165408 rows x 4 columns]"]},"execution_count":4,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["fields = ['iso_code', 'continent', 'location', 'tests_units']\n","covid_word[fields]"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"4f244478","metadata":{"id":"7GI9FShzjolE","papermill":{"duration":0.037503,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.366092","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.328589","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["Let's show information about the field date.\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":5,"id":"3de82fc9","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.444241Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.443509Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.449622Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.450117Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:08.482785Z"},"id":"-hYrN453jolF","papermill":{"duration":0.046661,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.450282","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.403621","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/plain":["0         2020-02-24\n","1         2020-02-25\n","2         2020-02-26\n","3         2020-02-27\n","4         2020-02-28\n","             ...    \n","165403    2022-02-25\n","165404    2022-02-26\n","165405    2022-02-27\n","165406    2022-02-28\n","165407    2022-03-01\n","Name: date, Length: 165408, dtype: object"]},"execution_count":5,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["covid_word['date']"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"53698bfb","metadata":{"id":"OCAkVRmJjolG","papermill":{"duration":0.038156,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.526453","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.488297","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["### Сhange the data types of columns\n"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"241f947e","metadata":{"id":"YOwOer5pjolH","papermill":{"duration":0.037158,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.601194","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.564036","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["As you can see, the columns: 'iso_code', 'continent', 'location', 'tests_units' have many repetitions and should be assigned to categorical fields **pandas.astype()**. \n","\n","The field 'data' should be converted into DataTime type **pandas.to_datetime**  \n","To see the results we can use **pandas.describe()**.\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":6,"id":"5dd39949","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.682569Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.681861Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.847447Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.847949Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:08.493036Z"},"id":"W8IQFt5ajolJ","papermill":{"duration":0.20897,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.848147","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.639177","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/html":["<div>\n","<style scoped>\n","    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n","        vertical-align: middle;\n","    }\n","\n","    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n","        vertical-align: top;\n","    }\n","\n","    .dataframe thead th {\n","        text-align: right;\n","    }\n","</style>\n","<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n","  <thead>\n","    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th>iso_code</th>\n","      <th>continent</th>\n","      <th>location</th>\n","      <th>tests_units</th>\n","    </tr>\n","  </thead>\n","  <tbody>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>count</th>\n","      <td>165408</td>\n","      <td>155504</td>\n","      <td>165408</td>\n","      <td>85981</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>unique</th>\n","      <td>238</td>\n","      <td>6</td>\n","      <td>238</td>\n","      <td>4</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>top</th>\n","      <td>ARG</td>\n","      <td>Africa</td>\n","      <td>Argentina</td>\n","      <td>tests performed</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>freq</th>\n","      <td>791</td>\n","      <td>39197</td>\n","      <td>791</td>\n","      <td>62269</td>\n","    </tr>\n","  </tbody>\n","</table>\n","</div>"],"text/plain":["       iso_code continent   location      tests_units\n","count    165408    155504     165408            85981\n","unique      238         6        238                4\n","top         ARG    Africa  Argentina  tests performed\n","freq        791     39197        791            62269"]},"execution_count":6,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["fields = ['iso_code', 'continent', 'location', 'tests_units']\n","covid_word[fields] =covid_word[fields].astype('category')\n","covid_word.loc[:, 'date'] = pd.to_datetime(covid_word['date'])\n","covid_word[fields].describe()"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"1b0a41e7","metadata":{"id":"WmHQN9iGjolK","papermill":{"duration":0.037758,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.924651","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.886893","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["### Rows filtering\n"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"75e8f2b6","metadata":{"id":"uaPESo_8jolL","papermill":{"duration":0.037708,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.000506","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:42.962798","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["As we can see, the DataSet contains information about 6 continents and 238 countries.\n","The field 'tests_units' consist of 4 categories. To show a list of countries, we can use **pandas.Series.cat.categories**.\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":7,"id":"916e0d76","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.083227Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.08256Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.085038Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.085628Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:08.669697Z"},"id":"-IgQLE9RjolL","papermill":{"duration":0.047063,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.085802","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.038739","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/plain":["Index(['Afghanistan', 'Africa', 'Albania', 'Algeria', 'Andorra', 'Angola',\n","       'Anguilla', 'Antigua and Barbuda', 'Argentina', 'Armenia',\n","       ...\n","       'Uzbekistan', 'Vanuatu', 'Vatican', 'Venezuela', 'Vietnam',\n","       'Wallis and Futuna', 'World', 'Yemen', 'Zambia', 'Zimbabwe'],\n","      dtype='object', length=238)"]},"execution_count":7,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["covid_word['location'].cat.categories"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"d1eb6daf","metadata":{"id":"80889yb9jolM","papermill":{"duration":0.03765,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.161577","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.123927","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["Let's investigate the dynamics of new cases of COVID-19 for a separate country. We will use India for saving models and further forecast. You can use your country. Let's use a pandas filter to do this.\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":8,"id":"233dd5e5","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.241238Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.240552Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.28381Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.284436Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:08.678842Z"},"id":"CTqsGuIfjolN","papermill":{"duration":0.08507,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.284608","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.199538","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/html":["<div>\n","<style scoped>\n","    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n","        vertical-align: middle;\n","    }\n","\n","    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n","        vertical-align: top;\n","    }\n","\n","    .dataframe thead th {\n","        text-align: right;\n","    }\n","</style>\n","<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n","  <thead>\n","    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th>iso_code</th>\n","      <th>continent</th>\n","      <th>location</th>\n","      <th>date</th>\n","      <th>total_cases</th>\n","      <th>new_cases</th>\n","      <th>new_cases_smoothed</th>\n","      <th>total_deaths</th>\n","      <th>new_deaths</th>\n","      <th>new_deaths_smoothed</th>\n","      <th>...</th>\n","      <th>female_smokers</th>\n","      <th>male_smokers</th>\n","      <th>handwashing_facilities</th>\n","      <th>hospital_beds_per_thousand</th>\n","      <th>life_expectancy</th>\n","      <th>human_development_index</th>\n","      <th>excess_mortality_cumulative_absolute</th>\n","      <th>excess_mortality_cumulative</th>\n","      <th>excess_mortality</th>\n","      <th>excess_mortality_cumulative_per_million</th>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>date</th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","    </tr>\n","  </thead>\n","  <tbody>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-01-30</th>\n","      <td>IND</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>India</td>\n","      <td>2020-01-30</td>\n","      <td>1.0</td>\n","      <td>1.0</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.9</td>\n","      <td>20.6</td>\n","      <td>59.55</td>\n","      <td>0.53</td>\n","      <td>69.66</td>\n","      <td>0.645</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-01-31</th>\n","      <td>IND</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>India</td>\n","      <td>2020-01-31</td>\n","      <td>1.0</td>\n","      <td>0.0</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.9</td>\n","      <td>20.6</td>\n","      <td>59.55</td>\n","      <td>0.53</td>\n","      <td>69.66</td>\n","      <td>0.645</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-02-01</th>\n","      <td>IND</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>India</td>\n","      <td>2020-02-01</td>\n","      <td>1.0</td>\n","      <td>0.0</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.9</td>\n","      <td>20.6</td>\n","      <td>59.55</td>\n","      <td>0.53</td>\n","      <td>69.66</td>\n","      <td>0.645</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-02-02</th>\n","      <td>IND</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>India</td>\n","      <td>2020-02-02</td>\n","      <td>2.0</td>\n","      <td>1.0</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.9</td>\n","      <td>20.6</td>\n","      <td>59.55</td>\n","      <td>0.53</td>\n","      <td>69.66</td>\n","      <td>0.645</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-02-03</th>\n","      <td>IND</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>India</td>\n","      <td>2020-02-03</td>\n","      <td>3.0</td>\n","      <td>1.0</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.9</td>\n","      <td>20.6</td>\n","      <td>59.55</td>\n","      <td>0.53</td>\n","      <td>69.66</td>\n","      <td>0.645</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>...</th>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-02-25</th>\n","      <td>IND</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>India</td>\n","      <td>2022-02-25</td>\n","      <td>42905844.0</td>\n","      <td>11499.0</td>\n","      <td>14762.714</td>\n","      <td>513481.0</td>\n","      <td>255.0</td>\n","      <td>321.571</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.9</td>\n","      <td>20.6</td>\n","      <td>59.55</td>\n","      <td>0.53</td>\n","      <td>69.66</td>\n","      <td>0.645</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-02-26</th>\n","      <td>IND</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>India</td>\n","      <td>2022-02-26</td>\n","      <td>42916117.0</td>\n","      <td>10273.0</td>\n","      <td>13377.714</td>\n","      <td>513724.0</td>\n","      <td>243.0</td>\n","      <td>260.143</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.9</td>\n","      <td>20.6</td>\n","      <td>59.55</td>\n","      <td>0.53</td>\n","      <td>69.66</td>\n","      <td>0.645</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-02-27</th>\n","      <td>IND</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>India</td>\n","      <td>2022-02-27</td>\n","      <td>42924130.0</td>\n","      <td>8013.0</td>\n","      <td>12229.429</td>\n","      <td>513843.0</td>\n","      <td>119.0</td>\n","      <td>247.714</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.9</td>\n","      <td>20.6</td>\n","      <td>59.55</td>\n","      <td>0.53</td>\n","      <td>69.66</td>\n","      <td>0.645</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-02-28</th>\n","      <td>IND</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>India</td>\n","      <td>2022-02-28</td>\n","      <td>42931045.0</td>\n","      <td>6915.0</td>\n","      <td>11302.286</td>\n","      <td>514023.0</td>\n","      <td>180.0</td>\n","      <td>239.857</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.9</td>\n","      <td>20.6</td>\n","      <td>59.55</td>\n","      <td>0.53</td>\n","      <td>69.66</td>\n","      <td>0.645</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-03-01</th>\n","      <td>IND</td>\n","      <td>Asia</td>\n","      <td>India</td>\n","      <td>2022-03-01</td>\n","      <td>42938599.0</td>\n","      <td>7554.0</td>\n","      <td>10224.000</td>\n","      <td>514246.0</td>\n","      <td>223.0</td>\n","      <td>232.000</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>1.9</td>\n","      <td>20.6</td>\n","      <td>59.55</td>\n","      <td>0.53</td>\n","      <td>69.66</td>\n","      <td>0.645</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","      <td>NaN</td>\n","    </tr>\n","  </tbody>\n","</table>\n","<p>762 rows × 67 columns</p>\n","</div>"],"text/plain":["           iso_code continent location       date  total_cases  new_cases  \\\n","date                                                                        \n","2020-01-30      IND      Asia    India 2020-01-30          1.0        1.0   \n","2020-01-31      IND      Asia    India 2020-01-31          1.0        0.0   \n","2020-02-01      IND      Asia    India 2020-02-01          1.0        0.0   \n","2020-02-02      IND      Asia    India 2020-02-02          2.0        1.0   \n","2020-02-03      IND      Asia    India 2020-02-03          3.0        1.0   \n","...             ...       ...      ...        ...          ...        ...   \n","2022-02-25      IND      Asia    India 2022-02-25   42905844.0    11499.0   \n","2022-02-26      IND      Asia    India 2022-02-26   42916117.0    10273.0   \n","2022-02-27      IND      Asia    India 2022-02-27   42924130.0     8013.0   \n","2022-02-28      IND      Asia    India 2022-02-28   42931045.0     6915.0   \n","2022-03-01      IND      Asia    India 2022-03-01   42938599.0     7554.0   \n","\n","            new_cases_smoothed  total_deaths  new_deaths  new_deaths_smoothed  \\\n","date                                                                            \n","2020-01-30                 NaN           NaN         NaN                  NaN   \n","2020-01-31                 NaN           NaN         NaN                  NaN   \n","2020-02-01                 NaN           NaN         NaN                  NaN   \n","2020-02-02                 NaN           NaN         NaN                  NaN   \n","2020-02-03                 NaN           NaN         NaN                  NaN   \n","...                        ...           ...         ...                  ...   \n","2022-02-25           14762.714      513481.0       255.0              321.571   \n","2022-02-26           13377.714      513724.0       243.0              260.143   \n","2022-02-27           12229.429      513843.0       119.0              247.714   \n","2022-02-28           11302.286      514023.0       180.0              239.857   \n","2022-03-01           10224.000      514246.0       223.0              232.000   \n","\n","            ...  female_smokers  male_smokers  handwashing_facilities  \\\n","date        ...                                                         \n","2020-01-30  ...             1.9          20.6                   59.55   \n","2020-01-31  ...             1.9          20.6                   59.55   \n","2020-02-01  ...             1.9          20.6                   59.55   \n","2020-02-02  ...             1.9          20.6                   59.55   \n","2020-02-03  ...             1.9          20.6                   59.55   \n","...         ...             ...           ...                     ...   \n","2022-02-25  ...             1.9          20.6                   59.55   \n","2022-02-26  ...             1.9          20.6                   59.55   \n","2022-02-27  ...             1.9          20.6                   59.55   \n","2022-02-28  ...             1.9          20.6                   59.55   \n","2022-03-01  ...             1.9          20.6                   59.55   \n","\n","            hospital_beds_per_thousand  life_expectancy  \\\n","date                                                      \n","2020-01-30                        0.53            69.66   \n","2020-01-31                        0.53            69.66   \n","2020-02-01                        0.53            69.66   \n","2020-02-02                        0.53            69.66   \n","2020-02-03                        0.53            69.66   \n","...                                ...              ...   \n","2022-02-25                        0.53            69.66   \n","2022-02-26                        0.53            69.66   \n","2022-02-27                        0.53            69.66   \n","2022-02-28                        0.53            69.66   \n","2022-03-01                        0.53            69.66   \n","\n","            human_development_index  excess_mortality_cumulative_absolute  \\\n","date                                                                        \n","2020-01-30                    0.645                                   NaN   \n","2020-01-31                    0.645                                   NaN   \n","2020-02-01                    0.645                                   NaN   \n","2020-02-02                    0.645                                   NaN   \n","2020-02-03                    0.645                                   NaN   \n","...                             ...                                   ...   \n","2022-02-25                    0.645                                   NaN   \n","2022-02-26                    0.645                                   NaN   \n","2022-02-27                    0.645                                   NaN   \n","2022-02-28                    0.645                                   NaN   \n","2022-03-01                    0.645                                   NaN   \n","\n","            excess_mortality_cumulative  excess_mortality  \\\n","date                                                        \n","2020-01-30                          NaN               NaN   \n","2020-01-31                          NaN               NaN   \n","2020-02-01                          NaN               NaN   \n","2020-02-02                          NaN               NaN   \n","2020-02-03                          NaN               NaN   \n","...                                 ...               ...   \n","2022-02-25                          NaN               NaN   \n","2022-02-26                          NaN               NaN   \n","2022-02-27                          NaN               NaN   \n","2022-02-28                          NaN               NaN   \n","2022-03-01                          NaN               NaN   \n","\n","            excess_mortality_cumulative_per_million  \n","date                                                 \n","2020-01-30                                      NaN  \n","2020-01-31                                      NaN  \n","2020-02-01                                      NaN  \n","2020-02-02                                      NaN  \n","2020-02-03                                      NaN  \n","...                                             ...  \n","2022-02-25                                      NaN  \n","2022-02-26                                      NaN  \n","2022-02-27                                      NaN  \n","2022-02-28                                      NaN  \n","2022-03-01                                      NaN  \n","\n","[762 rows x 67 columns]"]},"execution_count":8,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["covid_word.index = covid_word['date']\n","c_covid = covid_word[covid_word['location'] == \"India\"]\n","c_covid"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"3719c936","metadata":{"id":"ZTv5QgLzjolO","papermill":{"duration":0.038819,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.362688","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.323869","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["Let's choose the fields 'new_cases', 'new_cases_smoothed' for forecasting. First of all, we should visualize this data.\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":9,"id":"17abfe69","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.444604Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.443884Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.850335Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.849797Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:08.72386Z"},"id":"TGc-RyczjolO","papermill":{"duration":0.448558,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.850518","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.40196","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"data":{"image/png":"iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAYkAAAESCAYAAAAIfCk9AAAAOXRFWHRTb2Z0d2FyZQBNYXRwbG90bGliIHZlcnNpb24zLjUuMSwgaHR0cHM6Ly9tYXRwbG90bGliLm9yZy/YYfK9AAAACXBIWXMAAAsTAAALEwEAmpwYAABRA0lEQVR4nO3dd3Qc1dnA4d/dLmnVJTe5V9xtcAFsDMZgDDj0XgKEQKgfBJJgEhJ6AoFAaAm9JQRM7x2MTbWxTXHvTa6yets2c78/ZlaWbXWttCrvc46PNXdn5t5drfbd25XWGiGEEKImjngXQAghRNslQUIIIUStJEgIIYSolQQJIYQQtZIgIYQQolYSJIQQQtTKFe8CxFpWVpbu27dvvIshhBDtyqJFi3ZrrbP3Te9wQaJv374sXLgw3sUQQoh2RSm1qaZ0aW4SQghRKwkSQgghaiVBQgghRK06XJ9ETcLhMLm5uQQCgXgXRbQzPp+Pnj174na7410UIeKiUwSJ3NxckpOT6du3L0qpeBdHtBNaa/Lz88nNzaVfv37xLo4QcdEpmpsCgQCZmZkSIESjKKXIzMyUGqjo1DpFkAAkQIgm6ajvG8PUGKZsEyDq12mChBBij5kPfcWJj3wV72KIdqBT9EkIIfbIKw2yYntJvIsh2gmpSQjRyZQGwvEugmhHOl1N4tZ3lrF8W2y/RQ3rkcLNvxhe5zkbN27k2GOPZfLkyXzzzTfk5OTw1ltvsW3bNq688kry8vJITEzkiSeeYNCgQQwcOJD169dTXFxMZmYmc+bMYcqUKUyZMoWnnnqKQYMG7ZdHWVkZV199NQsXLkQpxc0338ypp57K5Zdfzvfff09lZSWnnXYat956KwCzZs3i7bffxuVyMX36dO69917y8vK47LLL2Lx5MwD//Oc/mTRpEnPnzuWaa64BrHb6efPmkZycHNPXUbSOYMSs+jkQNvC5nXEsjWjrGhwklFJOYCGwVWs9UynVD3gJyAQWAedrrUNKKS/wPHAQkA+cqbXeaN/jRuBiwAD+T2v9kZ0+A3gAcAJPaq3vstNrzKPZzzpO1qxZw4svvsgTTzzBGWecwWuvvcYzzzzDo48+yqBBg5g/fz5XXHEFn3/+OUOGDGH58uVs2LCBAw88kC+//JKJEyeyZcuWGgMEwO23305qaipLliwBoLCwEIA777yTjIwMDMNg2rRp/Pzzz+Tk5PDGG2+wcuVKlFIUFRUBcM011/Db3/6WyZMns3nzZo455hhWrFjBvffeyyOPPMKkSZMoKyvD5/O1ymsmYi8QNqp+Lq4MS5AQdWpMTeIaYAWQYh/fDdyvtX5JKfUo1of/v+3/C7XWA5VSZ9nnnamUGgacBQwHegCfKqUG2/d6BDgayAW+V0q9rbVeXkceTVbfN/6W1K9fP8aMGQPAQQcdxMaNG/nmm284/fTTq84JBoMAHHbYYcybN48NGzZw44038sQTT3D44Yczfvz4Wu//6aef8tJLL1Udp6enA/Dyyy/z+OOPE4lE2L59O8uXL2fYsGH4fD4uvvhiZs6cycyZM6vusXz58qp7lJSUUFZWxqRJk7juuus499xzOeWUU+jZs2fMXhfROrTWrN1VtldN4qY3l/LEL8fFsVSirWtQn4RSqidwPPCkfayAI4FX7VOeA06yfz7RPsZ+fJp9/onAS1rroNZ6A7AWmGD/W6u1Xm/XEl4CTqwnj3bJ6/VW/ex0OikoKCAtLY0ff/yx6t+KFSsAmDJlCl9++SULFizguOOOo6ioiC+++ILDDjusUXlu2LCBe++9l88++4yff/6Z448/nkAggMvlYsGCBZx22mm8++67zJgxAwDTNPnuu++qyrN161b8fj+zZs3iySefpLKykkmTJrFy5crYvTCiVby4YAtH3z+PuavzqtI+Wb4zjiUS7UFDO67/CfwBiH4FyQSKtNYR+zgXyLF/zgG2ANiPF9vnV6Xvc01t6XXlsRel1KVKqYVKqYV5eXk1ndImpaSk0K9fP1555RXA+qb3008/ATBhwgS++eYbHA4HPp+PMWPG8NhjjzFlypRa73f00UfzyCOPVB0XFhZSUlJCUlISqamp7Ny5kw8++ACw+i+Ki4s57rjjuP/++6vynT59Og899FDVPX788UcA1q1bx8iRI7nhhhsYP368BIl2aNm2YgB+2lJUlXZAN+lXEnWrN0gopWYCu7TWi1qhPE2itX5caz1Oaz0uO3u/PTPatBdeeIGnnnqK0aNHM3z4cN566y3AqnX06tWLgw8+GLCan0pLSxk5cmSt97rpppsoLCxkxIgRjB49mjlz5jB69GjGjh3LAQccwDnnnMOkSZMAKC0tZebMmYwaNYrJkydz3333AfDggw+ycOFCRo0axbBhw3j00UcBqwN7xIgRjBo1CrfbzbHHHtuSL4toAQl230NxpTW6KSctgQSP9EeIujWkT2IScIJS6jjAh9Un8QCQppRy2d/0ewJb7fO3Ar2AXKWUC0jF6sCOpkdVv6am9Pw68mh3+vbty9KlS6uOf/e731X9/OGHH9Z4zZdffln18znnnMM555xTZx5+v5/nnntuv/Rnn322xvMXLFiwX1pWVhazZ8/eL7167UK0T1639Z2wsNwa+5HscxGq1j8hRE3qrUlorW/UWvfUWvfF6nj+XGt9LjAHOM0+7QLgLfvnt+1j7Mc/11prO/0spZTXHrU0CFgAfA8MUkr1U0p57Dzetq+pLQ8hRCMFwlZA2FZsrUWV5YngjpTFs0iiHWjOPIkbgJeUUncAPwBP2elPAf9RSq0FCrA+9NFaL1NKvQwsByLAlVprA0ApdRXwEdYQ2Ke11svqyaNTe+aZZ3jggQf2Sps0adJe/RFC7Kv6JLoD1GYez7sNpQ0o/RmSu8WxZKIta1SQ0Fp/AXxh/7wea2TSvucEgNP3TbcfuxO4s4b094H3a0ivMY/O7qKLLuKiiy6KdzFEO1NSGan6+U+u/5KoK6yDzd/C8JPjVCrR1smyHEJ0EqVBqyahMBnjWMdPqdMI4oatbXZMimgDJEgI0Ulst/si+qvtJKtK1qdOZCV9Yevi+BZMtGkSJIToBExTk1tYCcBYx1oAdiaP4Gc9ELb9AKZR1+WiE5MgIUQnsLssWDXcdbxaRSmJlPr7stLIgXAFlGyLcwlFWyVBQrRbP/74I++/v2e8wy233MK9997b5Ps9++yzXHXVVbEoWpuzo8RqakrxOTnS+QPfOw/E5XKz0bQnnxZtimPpRFsmQUK0W/sGCVG7sqA1smlEUjHZqphlnpF4XA626C7WCYUSJETNOl+Q+GAWPHN8bP99MKvebDdu3MjQoUO55JJLGD58ONOnT6eyspJ169YxY8YMDjroIA477DBWrlyJYRj069cPrTVFRUU4nU7mzZsHWAv/rVmzpsY8ysrKuOiiixg5ciSjRo3itddeA+Dyyy9n3LhxDB8+nJtvvrnq/FmzZjFs2DBGjRpVNQM8Ly+PU089lfHjxzN+/Hi+/vprAObOncuYMWMYM2YMY8eOpbS0tMYybN++nSlTpjBmzBhGjBhRNWvc7/fz+9//nuHDh3PUUUexYMECjjjiCPr378/bb78NQCAQqCr/2LFjmTNnTq3poVCIv/zlL8yePZsxY8ZUzRJfvnx51X0ffPDBqnL997//ZcKECYwZM4bf/OY3GIbVBv/MM88wePBgJkyYUPVcO6LyoPV8x3pyAdjsGYjH6WCbzrROKM6NV9FEG9fpNh2Kp86wn8T//vc/jjnmGP70pz9hGAYVFdZY/PLyco488kjuueceTj75ZG666SY++eQTli9fzgUXXMAJJ5zAI488glKKJUuWsHLlSqZPn87q1atrTb/ttttYuHAhDz/8MGA1N61cuZI5c+ZQWlrKkCFDuPzyy1m7di2zZ8/m66+/xu12c8UVV/DCCy9w9NFHc/PNN7No0SJSU1OZOnUqY8eOjeWvvM0ot2sSh0XmU669bPcNYITLQQQXpi8dR/muOJdQtFWdL0gce1fcsu4M+0mMHz+eX/3qV4TDYU466aSq5+vxeKqWIx85ciRerxe3283IkSPZuHEjAF999RVXX301AAcccAB9+vRh9erVtabX5Pjjj8fr9eL1eunSpQs7d+7ks88+Y9GiRVWvXWVlJV26dGH+/PkcccQRRBeFPPPMM2u9b3tX1dxUOZ8PzfGEHT7cTqshwUzMxlHeflZPFq2r8zU3xVFn2E9iypQpzJs3j5ycHC688EKef/55ANxuN9YWIeBwOKpeC4fDQSQSqfFeTbHvaxyJRNBac8EFF1Q9p1WrVnHLLbfELM/2oDwYIZEA/kgRa82eaA1up/X7iCRkQpkECVEzCRJx1BH3k9i0aRNdu3blkksu4de//jWLFzd8otZhhx3GCy+8AMDq1avZvHkzQ4YMqTU9OTm51r6R6qZNm8arr77Krl1Wk0pBQQGbNm1i4sSJzJ07l/z8fMLhcNXvoSMqDxn0Utbz36y7UBGO4HFZf/6RhCyQ5iZRCwkScdbR9pP44osvqvKcPXs211xzTYNfiyuuuALTNBk5ciRnnnkmzz77LF6vt9b0qVOnsnz58r06rmsybNgw7rjjDqZPn86oUaM4+uij2b59O927d+eWW27hkEMOYdKkSQwdOrTBZW1vyoMRBrl3A7BFZ1MeNPDYzU0rS72YUpMQtVDWitwdx7hx4/TChQv3SluxYkWH/gAQLasjvH9mvfYzXZY9zXXmM4wJPIbLn8Xdp47k4ucWcpXzDX7nfgVu2gUub/03Ex2SUmqR1nq/Dc+lJiFEJ1AZNujt2IXpSaYIP+XBSFXH9W5SrZOk81rUoPONbuoA2sJ+EkuWLOH888/fK83r9TJ//vxWK4NouLBh0pOdkN4HShRdUrxVQSJfp1gnledBas2j1kTnJUGiHWoL+0mMHDmyqlNbtH2hiKaL3o0jdSj/OvdARvdKY4e9KuxubdckpF9C1KDTNDd1tL4X0To6wvvm9cW5fLpiJ1lmAaR057iR3clJS6jquM6nWk1CiH10iiDh8/nIz8/vEH/wovVorcnPz691dnl7cd3LP+ElRIougeQeVenRIbBF2m8lVBbGo3iijesUzU09e/YkNzeXvDz5piQax+fz1Tq7vD0osfe17qLsAJDSveqx6GS6EhIxcOCUINHuBCMGWoPP7WyxPDpFkHC73fTr1y/exRCi1X2z1pob0Q07ACTvCRLRmgQoSpWftMqCVi6daK6p93zBztIg6/56XIvl0Smam4TorKK70XVTdgBIqdbc5Nzz519MMlRIkGhvthUHMMyWbUaXICFEB1ZSaTU3dVX71yTc1YJEgfZLn0Q71pL9rRIkhOjAiu0g0U0VEMALvtSqx/Y0N0GBkYiW5qZ2qyQQu0Uy9yVBQogObE+QKGS3IxPslXhh75pEIcnoCqlJtFd5pYEWu7cECSE6sOKq5qYC8h2Zez0WHd0EUKj9KKlJtFtrd5W32L0lSAjRgRVXhnE6FN0oZLfaO0gotU+QCFdAJNjaRRTNkOy1Bqj+sKXlaoESJITowEoCEbKTPHRRhexWGbWeV4xMqGvPthRUtNi9JUgI0YGVByP0SwrgVZE6g0RhdNa1DINtV4IRE4BA2GyxPDrFZDohOqvyYIReaWUAFKi0/R5/4KwxlAcN3nlrmZVQkd+KpRPNYZqakGEFh2DEaLF8pCYhRAeltaY8ZNDNYW3xWkDafuecOCaH8X3T96wEK4v8tRvRAAEtW5OQICFEBxWMmBimpoujGIB8lVrjeSkJ7mp7SuxureKJZgqGqwcJqUkIIRqpPGhNsBqQYA2PvPTYg2s8L9nnogg/Jg4o39Vq5RPNU72JKdo30RIkSAjRQVWErA+RdF0MDjeTRw6q8bwEtxOHw0mFO02am9qR6oFBahJCiEYrD1k1CX+kAJKy95ptXZ1SipQEN2XOdNmdrh2JBgm/1yU1CSFE40WbmxJCBeDPrvPcZJ+LIkea1CTakZAdGFJ8LqlJCCEarzxofXD4QvmQ1KXOc1N8bgpJlT6JdiRsj25K9rlJCefDrhUtko8ECSE6qGhNwhPYDf56gkSCi906RUY3tSPRIJHuNfnafTn6X4dAOPYL/UmQEKKDKrc7rl2BQkjMrPPcBLeL3aRCqAxCLbfEg4id6DyJQ/ViABQadi6NeT4SJITooMqDEbyEUEZwr30kauJ1O6yaBEi/RDsRNqyNhvqbm/ck7vg55vnUGySUUj6l1AKl1E9KqWVKqVvt9H5KqflKqbVKqdlKKY+d7rWP19qP9612rxvt9FVKqWOqpc+w09YqpWZVS68xDyFE/cpDEZKxti+tN0i4HOw2o+s3SZNTexC2O667mHkU6SQrsQWWVWlITSIIHKm1Hg2MAWYopQ4G7gbu11oPBAqBi+3zLwYK7fT77fNQSg0DzgKGAzOAfymlnEopJ/AIcCwwDDjbPpc68hBC1KM8GCHNYTcd1RsknOQZydaBLPLXLkT7JDKMXWzUXTFdCVBZFPN86g0S2lJmH7rtfxo4EnjVTn8OOMn++UT7GPvxacpauP5E4CWtdVBrvQFYC0yw/63VWq/XWoeAl4AT7Wtqy0MIUY/yoEG2x94fogE1iZ2GXZOQzut2IWxazU1p4V1s01mY3jQIFMU8nwb1Sdjf+H8EdgGfAOuAIq11dGPVXCDH/jkH2AJgP14MZFZP3+ea2tIz68hj3/JdqpRaqJRamJcn7alCgFWT6OK2R7t4U+o81+tysCMizU3tidXcpEkJ7mSbzsTwpsanJgGgtTa01mOAnljf/A+IeUmaQWv9uNZ6nNZ6XHZ23ZOGhOgsKkIGGU47SDSgJpEf8aIdblkuvJ0IGyaplOMxK9mmszC8KfELElFa6yJgDnAIkKaUiu5H0RPYav+8FegFYD+eCuRXT9/nmtrS8+vIQwhRj/JQhAxntOO6npqE2wkoa6isNDe1C2HDJEdZv6ttOpOIJzU+zU1KqWylrN1KlFIJwNHACqxgcZp92gXAW/bPb9vH2I9/rrXWdvpZ9uinfsAgYAHwPTDIHsnkwercftu+prY8hBD1CEVMUlVDO66tjwIzIVNqEu1EyNB0U9Yggx06wwoSLVCTaMjOdN2B5+xRSA7gZa31u0qp5cBLSqk7gB+Ap+zznwL+o5RaCxRgfeijtV6mlHoZWA5EgCu11gaAUuoq4CPACTyttba3yeKGWvIQQtQjbJgkqwpQDvD46zw3GiSMhAycEiTahbBhkqlKANhNKmF3SovUJOoNElrrn4GxNaSvx+qf2Dc9AJxey73uBO6sIf194P2G5iGEqF8oYuLXFVandS0rwEZ5XU4AIr4MPLtjP2tXxF44YpKFFSTydTIBV4o1Y94Ig9Mds3xkxrUQHVQwYuKnvN7+CLBmXAOEvRkyuqmdiNYkDFcilfh4alGh9UCgOKb5SJAQooMKGyZJuqLe/gjY09wU9GRYHzJGuKWLJ5opZGiyHSVEfBkAFEdnXce4X0KChBAdVMgwSTLLwJdW77nR5qaAxz5XZl23eWHDJEuVYiRkAVCMHSRi3C8hQUKIDioc0STo8non0gH43FaQqHSlWQnS5NTmhQ2TDFWCkWCt8FtSVZMojGk+EiSE6KBChkmiUdag5ia/1xrDsi1sf9DIXIk2L2yYZFCMmbhPTUKam4QQ9dFaEwwb+MyGdVz7fVaQ+OtcOzjIMNg2LxQ2SacEHQ0S2h7mLM1NQoj6XPXiD1SEwniN8gbVJJK8VnNTgbZXgpWaRJvnDJfiIQJSkxBCNNZ7P2/HT8DarawBfRLR5qZCkoloB5TtbOkiiibSWnP1iz+wYNkqKyHJChJhXAQdCVKTEEI0TArl1g8NqEkk2B3XJg7ySYWyHS1ZNNEMP24p4p2ftpFBqZXg37OoaaXDLzUJIUTDJKuGLe4HoKrNyM5XGVAqNYm26pt1Vn9RlrImzTnsmgRAuSNZahJCiIZpTE2iumJXBpRKTaKtWpJrBYfouk0Of5eqx8qlJiGEaKjk6AqwDeiTqG6XTpPmpjZsY74V/KPNTa7kPc1N5covNQkhRN1CEWvv4xQatkx41Hc3TuPksTlsNVKt0U1GpP6LRKsrDVi/lyxVTIVKxOnx7XlM+WUynRCibpUhA6hWk2hgkOiW6mNAdhK54VRAQ/muFiqhaI6yoBUkMlUJpc50XI49/UklKkmam4QQdQtGrCAxsbs1YqkxzU0zRnSzmptA+iXaIK01ZcEIDgUZlFDiTNtr0EGJToJweUwXaJQgIUQHEwhbzU0DUzW4EsDlafC1vTOSJEi0YYGwiWFquqb4yFQllDisLwA5aQlAy0yokyAhRAcTsGsSCUZpo0c2eVwOCp3WgnHSed32lAatGkKXFB+ZqpQia2dpvp51JMeO6EZhCyzNIUFCiA4mELaChCfSsHWb9rvek4mJkrkSbVC007qb300GJRSpPb9fr8tBgWnVKKQmIYSoVbS5yRspaXRNAiDB56XcmSY1iTaozA4SfZLCuJRJAXt+v36fi10hO0hITUIIUZtoTcIdKW30HAmAJK+LQqdMqGuLKuyRaz091si1fL3n95vsc7M9aA+HlZqEEKI2VUEi3LC9JPbl9zrtpTm2x7poopkiplVLzHJYs67zo6v2Ask+FwVmonUgNQkhRG2C9mQ6Z6ikSX0Sfq+LXWRAiQSJtiZiagAytBUk8vSeLwHJPne10U2xm1AnQUKIDiZak3CGGj+6Cazmpu1mOpTnxXS8vWi+iGEFiWTTDhLmnppEis9FBBemK1Gam4QQtQtETLyEUEawSX0SyT4X20x71rXsK9GmGHZzU7JRBEBaZteqx5Lt3QUj3lRpbhJC1C4YNkgmukx4E2oSHhebQ2nWgTQ5tSlhuyaRYhQR9qTx8HkTqx5L9rkBCDr9ECyNWZ4SJIToYCpDBikqukx4WqOv9/tcbI7YwaV0W+wKJprNsPskXIF83CldSE/aM5t+WPcUMpI87Ay6JEgIIWpXFoyQ4QxYB03suN6hM6wDGQbbpkSqBYno3tZRSV4Xw3ukUKoTJEgIIWpXGozQ1RMNEk0ZAuuiED/a4YYSqUm0JRHDHrlWmV+1t3V1XpeTMgkSQoi6lAUiZLmD1kETJ9NpHESSuspciTYmWpOoLUgkeJxSkxBC1K0sGCHL1fSOa789SibkzbSGwYo2w6pJaFSwuMbfbYLbQYn2QagsZnlKkBCigykLREhvZp8EQMCbCWUSJNqSiKnxEkaZkRpriT63k2LDZ9Uk7OGyzSVBQogOpjQYIU1VgnKAx9/o6xM91mZFFZ5M2Z2ujYmYutq2tPsHiQS3k2LTC2hr86EYkCAhRAdTFgyT6qiwvmlW27WsoRLcdpBwZ1h7XcfoG6loPsPUe7alraEm4XU7KTTsRf5i1C8hQUKIDqYsECGZiib1R4DVZAFQ5koHbUBlQSyLJ5ohbJjW7xZqDBIJbnt0E0iQEELsL7oHchIVTeqPgD1BotSZbiWUSZNTW2GYmlQVHZRQU5BwUIoECSFELYIRk7ChSTLLmjTbGsDntj4WNgbsFUWlX6LNCBuaVIcdJGrpuN5TkyiJSZ4SJIToQKLbW/qM8ibNkQDwuayaxH+W2h9GMsKpzTBMkxSHPXLNu/+ghASPkzLsPSWkJiGE2FdZMBokmrZMOIDDYXV2747uVSBzJdqMsKHxO+yJkjWMXPO6HJTRyh3XSqleSqk5SqnlSqllSqlr7PQMpdQnSqk19v/pdrpSSj2olFqrlPpZKXVgtXtdYJ+/Ril1QbX0g5RSS+xrHlTKGpJRWx5CiJpF90B2R8qa3CcRVUwSYVzS3NSGGKYmSYWsA0/Sfo+7nY64dFxHgOu11sOAg4ErlVLDgFnAZ1rrQcBn9jHAscAg+9+lwL/B+sAHbgYmAhOAm6t96P8buKTadTPs9NryEELUoDQYRmHiauLWpXtTFDtSpbmpDYmYJkkqAChw+fZ73OV0UNbaHdda6+1a68X2z6XACiAHOBF4zj7tOeAk++cTgee15TsgTSnVHTgG+ERrXaC1LgQ+AWbYj6Vorb/TWmvg+X3uVVMeQogalAUi+Amg0E3uk6iu2JEuNYk2JGJoklTQamqqYQ6M26mI4MJw+iBQHJM8G9UnoZTqC4wF5gNdtdbR1b92ANEtknKALdUuy7XT6krPrSGdOvIQQtSgLBghheheEs2tSUA+qTIEtg2JmJokAuBJrPFxt9P6SI94Ulo/SCil/MBrwLVa673GVtk1AB2TEtWirjyUUpcqpRYqpRbm5UnVWHReZcEIyXWMo2+sfFKl47oNiZiaRBWqsT8CqgUJd3LrDoFVSrmxAsQLWuvX7eSddlMR9v/RrxtbgV7VLu9pp9WV3rOG9Lry2IvW+nGt9Tit9bjs7OyGPCUhOqTSQGxrErvNFCtI6Bb9DigaKGKYJBIAd81BwmWPTAu5W7EmYY80egpYobW+r9pDbwPREUoXAG9VS/+lPcrpYKDYbjL6CJiulEq3O6ynAx/Zj5UopQ628/rlPveqKQ8hRA3KghHSnbVPtmqo+X+cxozh3dipU8AIQaAoNgUUzRI2NAkEaq1JeFzWR3rYlRyzIOFqwDmTgPOBJUqpH+20PwJ3AS8rpS4GNgFn2I+9DxwHrAUqgIsAtNYFSqnbge/t827TWkcXhbkCeBZIAD6w/1FHHkKIGpQFImS7A1bDbDNqEl1TfPTJTGTH6hRwYi30lyAj0OMtGDGsmoSn5haTaE0i6EqGytwaz2mseoOE1voroLalJKfVcL4GrqzlXk8DT9eQvhAYUUN6fk15CCFqVhaM0McVgDDNbm7yup1sN5KtIFG2C7IGxaSMoukCYYMEgvV2XIdcSfEZ3SSEaNtKAxEyYtDcBNaKontmXcsIp7YgGDFJ0IFa9wmJBomAMxkCJTHpS5IgIUQHUhYMk+koB08yuDzNuleip1qQkAl1bUIgbODVAXDXVpOwGn0CTj+YYQhXNjtPCRJCdCBlwQjpqhQSm99/kJrgppBktHJITaKNCIRNvLqy1o5rl12TqHTYNY0YNDlJkBCiA6kMGaTqMkjIaPa90hLdmDiIeNNlQl0bEIwY5JVU4NG1z5PwRIOEU4KEEKIGlSGDZF0Cic0PEumJVnNVwJslE+ragN/8ZxGOiN18VOtkOqu5qSJak4jBhDoJEkJ0IJVhgySjJCY1iWiQqHBLTaIt+GJVnjX8FWrtk3A6okHCDiJSkxBCVFcZNkg0YlOTSE10A1DizJCaRBuRqGrfSwJAKYXH6aBM2UGisqjZeUqQEKKDME1NOBwmwSiNSU0ixefC7VQUqjQJEm1EUrQmUcs8CQCXU/H4/N3WgTQ3CSGiAhFjz7pNMahJKKXokuxjh5EM4QoIljX7nqJ5EojWJGrukwAIRcyY7ikhQUKIDuJXz35PurI/yGNQkwDokeZjS8hu2pBhsHFnbThErQv8gbVSbCVeDJQECSHEHt+tLyANO0jEYJ4EQPfUBDYE7A8kmVAXV9nJ3gbVJCyKchIlSAgh9pau7A+FGNUkuqX6WFduN11ITSKutIZpA+zgUEefRFSFSpIgIYTYW0Y0SCRmxuR+aYlutkWSrQMZBhtX5cEIfhWyDmoZ3QR7lguvdCRKx7UQYm/Z2OPi/V1icr+0BA/52AsFyginuDFMTWXYwB8dAlvLPAmAm44fCkDQIc1NQohqkjxOpuRoa3E/d0JM7pme6CaCi4g3TWoScVQRigDVO65rDxK/PKQvhw7IpEJJkBBC2AxTUx4ySDOLwB+7LXyjE+pCPlmaI54qQgYACcpeAdZR90d3osdJqU6QICGEsJQFrW+aKUYhJMWmqQn2LM1R6ZFZ1/EU/f0m6GADRjaBzy1BQghRTVGF1aHpD+fHrD8CICXBqkmUuTKkuSmOKoJWTcKrK+tsaopK9DgpNn0SJIQQlq2F1uqgCaGCmAaJRLcTgHJXutQk4ihak/CagQbVJBI9LopMH4TLwTSalbcECSE6gNyiSlxEcIeKYtrc5LODRKkr3RpOGQ7E7N6i4aId1x6jss7hr1E+t5Miw2cdNLM2IUFCiA4gt7CSLGWPiY9hx7XXHnNf4rBncMuEuriI1iRcRkUDaxJOqyYBzZ4rIUFCiA4gvyxI/4QK6yCGNQmHQ+F1OShwZVkJxVtjdm/RcNHRTY0JEmU6Nov8SZAQogMoqgzTx2t/GCR3i+m9fW4nuxxdrYPiLTG9t2iYcrsm4QyXN7i5KVYrwUqQEKIDKKkM08tlz7aOeZBwsEPZtZOiTTG9t2iYQNiqSahwOXjrDxJSkxBC7KWoIkwPR5F14O8a03snuJ2UGi6rGatoc0zvLRqmMmzgUECovMHNTaVVNQnpkxCi0yuqDNFFFUJSNjjdMb23z+1k4cYCAkk9oEiam+IhEDbxu0FFAg1ubirV9nwKqUkIIYoqwmSZ+ZDcPeb3LqkMs604wKfbfWipScRFZdgg3R22Dho4T0L6JIQQgDWGvjQQIc1omSCxrdiaG5Grs9FFW8A0Y56HqFsgbJDmakyQcFKBFx2D3ekkSAjRzq3eae1GlxrJj3mndXW5OguHGZK5EnEQCBuku+rfSyLK53aicRBxNX/jIQkSQrRzq3aU4CKCJ9gyNYnBXa0PpVxtz5WQJqdWFwibpFYFiYbVJADCriTpuBais9tRHCSLYhS6RWoSb105mc+uP5xcbc/kliDR6ipDBmmOhu5vvSdIBJ1JEJAgIUSnVlAepL8vOpEu9jWJBI+T3hmJbI3WJAo3xDwPUbdAxCDF2fAgEV1zK+BMhkBxs/KWICFEO7e7PMRAn/1tsYX6JNxOBy6fnyJ3V9i9pkXyELWrDBkkV9Uk6u+T8LocOBRUOJOhsrBZeUuQEKKdKygL0dsdDRKxr0lE5aQlsMXZC/JWtlgeombBiLlnf+sGBAmllDUM1pEMlUXNyluChBDtXEF5iB7OIlBOSMpqsXwGZPtZEelu1SRkGGyrCoSNPftbN6C5CewJdUpqEkJ0ekWVIbrq3ZDSAxzOFsunX1YSP1R2hXCFLPTXyoIRkyQa3icBVud1CX4IlYIRbnLeEiSEaOcqggZZxk5I7dWi+WT5Paw2c6yDvFUtmpfYWzBskEAAnN4GL7uS6HFSjB1QmtHkJEFCiHZMa015KEJ6aCektWyQSE10s1ZHg4T0S7SmYMQkQVc2uBYBVnNTgWn3XzSjyUmChBDtWGXYQGkDfyivxWsSqQluivETTsiC3VKTaC0RwyRiajtI1N9pHZXocVJgRmsSBU3Ov94goZR6Wim1Sym1tFpahlLqE6XUGvv/dDtdKaUeVEqtVUr9rJQ6sNo1F9jnr1FKXVAt/SCl1BL7mgeVUqquPIQQe5QHDbpRgAOj5WsSCVYzR1nyQGluakUhwxok4G1kTSLR42R3VZBo2ZrEs8CMfdJmAZ9prQcBn9nHAMcCg+x/lwL/BusDH7gZmAhMAG6u9qH/b+CSatfNqCcPIYTt3o9W0UPlWwetUJMAKErqZwUJrVs0P2EJhu0gYTa+uWl3xF4uvCWDhNZ6HrBvXeVE4Dn75+eAk6qlP68t3wFpSqnuwDHAJ1rrAq11IfAJMMN+LEVr/Z3WWgPP73OvmvIQQthmL9xCjtptHaT1btG8UuwgscvX11oPqHRHi+YnLMGIFSQ8jQwSiR4nO8OtECRq0VVrvd3+eQcQ3QorB6g+Ni7XTqsrPbeG9LryEO1IMGJUbb0oWkaPaJBIyan7xGaK1iS2uftYCdJ53SqCEevvx21UNLJPwsXusAeUI74d13YNoEXrnfXloZS6VCm1UCm1MC8vryWLIhpgS0EFM/45j/98u5FLnl/EqFs/JmzI5KtYM03rT6K7KiDkSQNPYovm53U58bkdbHL0tBKkX6JVRGsSbqOyQftbR/ncTirCGnxpcQkSO+2mIuz/owvMbwWqN4z2tNPqSu9ZQ3pdeexHa/241nqc1npcdnZ2E5+SiJXrXv6RlTtK+fcX65i3Oo9QxGTeagnesVZUaU2Q6q7ycab1rOfs2EhNcLMtnIz2pUlNopVE+yRckYpGNzeFDBOdkB6XIPE2EB2hdAHwVrX0X9qjnA4Giu0mo4+A6UqpdLvDejrwkf1YiVLqYHtU0y/3uVdNeYg2zDQ1S7YWA5rJZR/wruePfOH5LdvfvxszHIp38TqUvFJrBu74jECrBYlEj4uXF21ludETc8eSVsmzs4s2N7ki5Y0OEgCmLw0qWnYI7IvAt8AQpVSuUupi4C7gaKXUGuAo+xjgfWA9sBZ4ArgCQGtdANwOfG//u81Owz7nSfuadcAHdnpteYg26uu1uznuwS8JhSPM7fYAf3c/QQrllDpTOa/0KcpeuyreRexQlm2zloBOCu60luRoBZsLKgD4prI3eseSZi33IBomGDFxYOI0Ao3qk4guFx7xpDWrJuGq7wSt9dm1PDSthnM1cGUt93kaeLqG9IXAiBrS82vKQ7Rdf/9wJSt3lHKq4yv6FC3ggcgp/CtyAr89dhRffHIbV6+cTcGCI7kndzg3/2JY1ZtYNM2PW4rI9Jq4AgWtFiQMux9kidkfp/G+1eTUbWSr5N1ZBSMGiTRucT+otjudJxVv0dom5y8zrkWTrd1VSlkwAljLQ6zeWYaXENe5X6EyexT/jJxCEA9Th3ThgcgprHQNwfneb5m7YDE3v7WM373yU5yfQfu2uaCCg9IrrYOU1mluivpZ97N+2PZjq+bbGQXDJomNXNwP9gSJkCdN1m4S8XHUffM498n5ADz/7SYqwwaXOt8lR+VTPuUvaPvtNSA7iaSEBC4tvwwnJv/1/JWNiz7m1UW5lNtBRjTejuIAgxLsfSRaqSbx1AXjuOKIAZQn9qbS4YetC1sl384sGDGrLRPe+OamgCsFgsVgNO1vTYKEaJKIPaT1py1FaK25+e1ljFFrud79Ku8ZE0gYPJVTxuaQ4HbicjowTc1m3ZX/9f87Lgxme2/nY8/v2bJyUZyfSfu1vTjAYJc96C+9T6vkOW1oV/4w4wAGdk1hqXMIbJ7fKvl2Zk1tbkryWr0Jla4UK6GJ25hKkBBNEh27DdaHFWgezHiVPJ3C78OXkehxct+ZY1hxu7XKSoU9oa7/+BlcmPAQd4XPIl2V0eP9X0IkGI+n0K5VhCIUV4bpa24GdyKktuxs630dOiCTORUDIG9Fs0bOiPpZe0k0Pkj47SBRppKthCZ2XkuQEE1SPUgcf9ebPOW+l97lP/P3yFlU4MNep7FKtMOze5qPkMPLo8YJXBu+gpTgDtbNnsUp//oaLWsBNZgVmKF7aCNkHwCO1v1THtDFz0JziHWwZUGr5t3ZBMMmiU1obkr2WUGimOYtFy5BQjRJdOw2wNnOz5nm/IHAwON51ZhS53U9UhOqZgqX5xzGc5GjGbDmabJyP6GgXOZRNNQOO0ikla2DLkNbPf8sv5ef9ABMhxs2f9vq+XcmwYiBnyYECa+9IGNVkGhajU+ChGiSgD0L9IBMF6c75/Kj2R/3OS9wzVFDOHfi/k0fRw+zlt5KS3Rj2DWGsyf04m7zfH4y+3Ov+zFm3PEqK7aXtN6TaMe2FwdIpQxP5S6rJtHKsvwegngoTB0uQaKFBSMm/kbubw3gt2sSBWbzFvmTICGaJFqT+PsBa+jn2Mn9kdNxOhTXHjWYO0/ef9z8w+eM5fs/HYVSqqrpaXzfDIb2yuba8JV4CfG29ybW/fBFaz6NdmtHcSXDHJusg67DWj3/rGQvAFuSR8O2HyBc2epl6CyCEZMUp13LbkSQcDqsJt/nfrC/eDWx70iChGgw09Tc9OYSjrz3C75YlUcGJQxe8TBrzBzmmqPqvNbrcpJtf7CM7W1tJZLp95Lic7FBd+fC8A0oNIf/8Fso2V7XrQRQEogwwWVPkMoZ1+r5J3tdeF0OVvlGgRGCrTJKraUEwwZpTjsIe5Mbff3GCjemwwOlTfu7kiAh6jVn1S6CEYON+eX897vNrN9dzn0fLOEh90N4AvnkTr2ff597UIPv988zx/DGFYeSmuCuWto3YfBUrnHehCtcxuZHTyUSlG+mtbn+5Z94fN56xjvXQPZQSEhr9TIopcjye3kjrycaBZu+afUydBbBiEmqqrRGsTndjb5e46DM2xVKttZ/cg0kSIhalQbCLNtWzEXPfM+0f8xl6Tar2npS2jpW+y5gknMZW8fdwNSpx3DsyO4Nvm+S11VVm4g2PZ00NgfVbTi/DV1G74pl5L/z59g/oQ7ANDWvLc5FYTJKr4Ze4+NWlqxkL99tN1hh9kZvmBu3cnR0VUHCm9Loa2cda/VX5TmyoFiChIih7cWVjLzlY45/8CtAQ9Em/vbip9zqfpb7AjcDsNgcSOnQ2pb2aphokEhNcJPp9/KhOYH/RaaSvexp2Lm8uU+jw1mbVwbACLWRFMqg96FxK0u23wPA5+YY2PQtlOfHrSwdWTBikKIqwNf4IHHZ4QMYmZPKdrKgOLf+C2ogQUJU2VJQwX0fr8I0NUf9w/pm2J18PvP8jq+81/Kt72rOc37Khn5nMTzwFKeEbsOd2Pg3bnURO0i4HYrMJOtD557ImRSbCZS+fq3so7yPez6yNvqZ7lyIiQMGHxO3slSErMELHxgTUdqAVe/FrSwdWTBs4m9iTQKgW6qPLZF0q0+iCUtzSJAQVX73yk88+PlaVu0spTxkkE0hj3nuo5sq4NPuv+GByMlc4/8HKaf8k3ISAJq9kusdJ43gqKFdOLBPOgn2gmQzJgzn75EzSd45H5a82uzn1VFUhgzmrc7DS4hfOL5llXckJGbErTxje6cBUJx6AFtVV/TS1+NWlo4sGDHx66bVJAC6p/pYHUwDbUBZ4/cllyAhqkS/GS7ZWkwSlbyacj+jHBv4c/gickdczv2R01njHEh2spck+wPd5VR13bJeg7sm8+QF4/G5nYTsWdz9s/wsSDuejd4D0B//qclrznQ0K3aUEIyY/CXzc/o6dvJpyilxLc+1Rw1m4U1H8X9HDebV8CTYMBd2yW51sRaMGCRR3qyaxIZQmnXQhH4JCRKiitdlvR2+/nkNb3tuok9oLdeGruB1cwqHDMgCILfQ2nTmjSsncfaEXnRJ9sUsf4/Tyj/Z56JPdgpXl5yHWbaL/DdnxSyP9mx9XjmgOS7yGV8Zw/lUt/7Q1+rcTgdZfi8T+mbwXGQ6IWcSwff+IE2EMVYRMkhqRk2iR2oCudr6+6Voc6OvlyAhAGs/iEDE4HDHT9y+6Rz6qJ0UHX0fb5qTGd4jhSHdkjnv4N48ePZYwKoB/O2UUVUTdmLhiqkDuezwAZx8YA490nws0f15MnIcmSv/R3jNFzHLp73asLuMYc5c0oNbedc8hLDRNj6Me2ckEvJmcFflSXg3zSW4TPomYqkiZJBoNq8msVl3RSsn7F7V6OslSAhKAmGOfeBLum6fwzOev1Ook7mr6z9Im3QxT/5yHM9eNAGAO04aybShXVusHKkJbmYdewBel5NuKVYN5V/qTDaaXYm8fQ2bdlqjZ7TWfLxsB68uyq1aB6oz2LC7nLMSF4FyMO3EC3nk3APjXSQAHA5Fz/QE/mMczWozh/J3bkDLDOyYCQYDeHQQfKlNur57qo8QbkoTe1s7CTZSvduXio5La805T8zn2/X5HO74ibvdTxBOH4Tz7A/5Q4Y1j+GoYS0XFOqS7LMmDU0Z1pu/LP0Vz5f+jfcfuoYNY37PiWNyuPQ/1gzfjCQ3PdISGJjtx+Xs2N951u8q48/6W+g7maMntK0tQ70uBxFc3Br5JS8E/8aGR07mpb63ccMJ43HEsLbZGTlDpaBoVk3CoWCntw8pTegz6th/VaJOG/Mr+HZ9Pl0o5CH3g0R8mXjPfp6eXTLxuOL71oiuNN4l2cuOrEOYHTmCy13vcMCPf+W1l57kKucb/NH1ArvevIn7H7yPe977GYBN+eU88/WGDrei7I2v/4zatYzukS0w/OR4F2c/Ibvpq6T7ZP4QvoRehfM5Y/Ev+WHh14QiJos3N21xubp8v7GAc5/8jjmrdnH3hyu59Z1lMc8j3rTWuMLW3Jim9kl4XU76ZCaxVudAwfpG798iNYlObOFGa8Gv57q/iqcgwoM5t3NTHJadrskpB/ZkSW4xV04dyO6yIDfu/DVB5eNXrg8h8iG4wdQKKuEsj2bTwhfYOvhFZrywm8qwwZtzF/DrtMX0GTeDUROmxvvpNMuWggpeXLCF37m+w1ROHENPiHeR9hO2dyr888xh3PkenLu1Gw95HqLHB6fz3Op7uHNpOu9ePZkROTU3mZQFI3y0dAfdUn1MGpjFuz9vY1N+BVdOHVhrnqc/aq0++/XaPZP4zp3YmwHZ/v32M2mvghGTRF1uHTSxuQlgUBc/i7Z141htQP66Ri0KKTWJTiy3sJIJjpUMLZzD22nncd5xR8a7SFX8Xhf3nD6ajCQPfTISMXHwTOrlvH/IS5wR/DPH+1/kfzN+YFDweS4OXU+CCuF88xIqwxGmD0zigcCf+cWuRxnx3slsfeeOdj3i5pPlOwHNTMd3lHQ7BJKy4l2k/bjtpr5Mv4f0JA/z9VBOCN7OLsPPJWuv5A3PX5jzwt2UF2xj/vp8TFOzdlcpX6yytl+97+PVXP/KT5z75Hye+2YjV/3vB+75aBVa66qtcqurvkHVSLWe2Z7b+MTze958+A9c/u93mPjXT1vnibewypA92xqa3NwE0CsjkcUVXayDvBWNulZqEp3Ua4tyeeCzNbya8DokduGMK/8KnsR4F6tGXVOtTuxEjxN/v3EsmGPS20zgoL6ZGDj5zDyIp7whbgw8xBXOtznLo+jt2MmvQr/jROc3nLjoHszQJhynPL6nHaudiBgmry3OZbjaSF/HTopH3BDvItXoobPHMvv7zfTL3LOU9TWnHMFZ7yZyXPhzzvXM5eqKRzAe/DeLIjM5L3IaYfvj56bjhzJvTR5j1Rouc73D0A83cajHw0bdlZ1LEzn1Pc3kgVncfdqelYajzYm3H5nJaV9fSCF+tugu/M7xP8I7Z3NP5AzgqFZ9DVpCRdggGTtINLG5CSAjycOyUFd0ggOV17gRThIkOqGiihDXv/ITBzuWM04vhcPuarMBAqCrPRfD63LQI82a6e10KHqkJlSds7Lr8Xy28Sv+4J4N6+F1YzKfmwcy5LDTWP/VPfx2ycuQ0R+m3hiX59BUX63dzbJtJczutwJzh4uUMSfFu0g1GtjFz5+Ot5owol/ys/xeevXI4amNx5N9+HV88808jq94iytcb3OsYz7bdSZpqpzVH+dwA0GO9P5A0JXMJ8Hh+AgxzrGKzNdO4k5jNM8vPppvRmVz6GBrIcno9q0Ti94nQYU4Lvgn/nLhCZzy7Atc7nqHWa6XCG65DG+vMfF4OWKmIhghXdl9EglNn10f3SQqktoX987G9d1Ic1Mn9NGyHbiIMMv1IsWuTDjowngXqU6JXmt2d5bfS7+sJM4Y15OHzh5LSoKLwwZl8fA5Y8lMTuDS8HVcEL4R89dz+GzIbVx+xAB+eWhfHjBO4ZXIFJh7Fwseu7xJ69fsKgnQd9Z7fLys8csaNMeCDQW4HZrx5XNwDJyGSsps1fyb4oTRPQAY3NVPVrK1Hld6kofkPmO4IXIpl4SuI1dnk6FKCeNkkmMZfdUOvnAdxtKZ73BN+Cp+E76OycEHuCt8FqMd63jacy+DX5nKi4/9jbMe/Yrcwkp8BOm78WW+MoazQXdnYLafxXow14d/QxFJmB/MAq1ZurWYn7YUxfEVabrdZSEysVccaEYzY2aStZdLWcYI2Lq4UddKTaKTKa4Mc+s7y7ku8QPGmOuInPAUuBPqvzCOJvTN4PIjBnDRpL44HYq/nza66rH/XDwRgJ9zizFwsto/HkfPA3nkPOtxa5VZxY2RX1OOjwu3/4/gMxvwnvoYpPdpcBlW7Ci18vtuE9OHd4vZc6vPsm0lnJy5BUfJVjjqllbLtzlOPagnx43sToLHyZCuKby/ZAc+t5Mh3ZJ5b8l2cg4+jc1dL+T8N5budV2f5EQe69YPsFYrve/cQ7n8BR//NY7iDwM2M3bL85y9/S7GmC/wwpezuNb1IZ6K7TxsXAxY/SEAJfi5L3I6d2x7hvLFLzPzFWuP5413Hd96L0KMfL+xgExVinYnoZrxdxp9bfJSR5K+/m0o2QYpPRp0rdQkOpm3f9pGTngTl/EaDDsJ16jT4l2kermcDm6YcUCdS4Bk2X8EiZ69FxyMzgiP4OKQq57m+tBlhLb8SOjxabB7TYPL4LbvE66hE7UlbSmo4ET1JbiTYMhxrZp3c0QXa7z8iAHcfepIZo7qwYgcq029X1ZSVRPigb3TePk3hwDWaqfVf8d9s6z+jTIS6XLIufwidCeXha4lXZVzx84rucz1DqFR5/GdaTVzJXr2fOd923k0G9wD8b3/f/RgN6D5cfVG/vb+Moorwy3+/GPlpy1F9E2oQDVzsEI3u19vmRpkJeQubPC1EiQ6kaKKEO8vXs9jvodxJKTCsX+Pd5FiJro1ak0fACk+F06HYmAXP6+ZUzg5dCvFFUEK/zWd8LYlDbp/dKJepBWXwjBMze7CIsaVzYFhJ4LX32p5x4rH5eDM8b1xOhRHHtCVly49mPMP7kOyz/pAT/a56ZVhfUMOGSbpidYkyq4pXnqm7/nmPLR7MqD40JzAowMfZa4xireMSbiPvZMu9u8e4MQx1rfj48f05rLwbzFNk5e9t/GF5zrG/G80180/nMVPXwuh8tZ5AZppza4yerjLmz2iLRqUZ30DEeWC3AUNvlaCRCfx9drdTLzzY87Zfhf99WY46VFIjs9s6pZwxGBreN9JY3L2e+ybG6fx41+OrqpVrNU9OSd0E0FDo545FjZ9Q0mg7m+X0SGX4VZcBmRbUSXH8DVeswLGnNNq+bakg/tn4nAoDuqTzsWT+3HnySPI9nsZmZPKvaePQinFc7+awBtXTKqadQ97vgkD9OgzkAvCs/i9eTUqIY1Pfns438yyhm//4/TRLLv1GEbkpLAqkM7fQmeS4ahktyeHu8Nn8aU5gql5/yX4+NEUFuyucXhtW1EZMthSWEEXCiC54Ts/1iQ66z2Ih58ZBBu/avi1zcpZtGna7rTbUlDBb5+by4Pef/ML53cY026FQe1/eGB16Ukelt92DDcet/9kQL/XVfWBE10h4vWbf8WpwVvYFPQTeuYE7rz9RlZuKyC/rObZqNHF9FrrQ2XZtmIO+/vn/Mr5AZXpB0Dfya2Sb2txOR38eeYweqYn4nI6eOfqyRx5gPWl5fDB2VWj2B46eyxvXjkJr2tPM+KAbKtGFbJ/F6mJ7qrzXU4HSV4XM0dZNYqnjWOZfdTXzJ3wKP82TuCDkQ/wG+MPuHavZOX9v+CW1xe12nNurHV5ZWitSQtshfS+zb7f+QdbfXCfhUait/0IhRsbdJ10XHdgL32/hRtfX8IBajOvee6jp86HI/+M87Br4120FlG9Tbo2X91wJOXBCMk+N1vJ5tTQLTzuuY+73U+Q99hs8lU6vun/R9Khv97rupBh7bXRGn0Sa3eVcdZj33Gq40uGOrYQmfyvdje/I1Z+MXpP52r/7CRy0hIYkZOKx+lg5qjav12nJrh54KwxPPnlBs4Y14vKsIHP7eSiSX35v8ow160q4wHPv+Dn/6P0yNcgKXuvmktbsC6vjGyKcJrBmASJ208awfGjunPt4/n8zvMqLH4epv2l3uskSHRQYcPkX5+v5kLnh9zgeomwOxl1wUfQa3y8ixZX0W+cYM27KIokc2bozxzp+IETnN8ySG0l6ePr2bxiLs+5z+CP581EAQXlVnNUa/RJ/PH1JXQLbeTu5P9Rlj4O/9jm7SPeUXx+/RFVPy+77ZiqWd61OXFMDifazY9JXlfVEh+9MhJ4xpyMCsHd7sfxPjSUXTqNrUf8jQOmtp1mvTU7yxjs3G4dZPSLyT1H9Uwlz5HF2tRDGbT4eTj8BnB567xGgkQH8+nyndz53nKOSlrLvRVPMtG9kh1dp5B+1qOQvn97fWf23v8dxrq8Mg4fnM34Ozx8FjyIowenctD6R7lo8wf8kXfY+tBENqYezOOruuOiOxEjYi2QVrp9v293K3eU4HY6qppDGmtrUSU/bC5k16blvO3/Oy5PIv6zngKHtArvq74AUZde6dbE0e9TjuaWlBGkb53Lsc75jJx7OYGdn/BZl4uYfvhk3E4Hm/LL6Z2RGJe1oNbsKmVq0kYIAT1isyx8osfFEYOzeXDLVB4yvoJlb8LoM+u8RoJEB/Ltunz+8fJH3Go8zpTyJZS6UtAzH6bb2PM6bXNFXQZ28TOwi/WB/tzFE/hw6Q6OGJLNOavP5qnIDC71fMixBd8ypfA7Pra/bG2ryIQ77AXlZm3Za6mEGf/8Emj4ePz56/PZUlhJ91QfCzYU8MxnP3KS8yte9byBFwec/05MmhnE3qKLDB4zvBsT+g3jsv+m8YbvZM4L/o+LVrzH0SveYsnG81FT/sDJT/7IFUcM4PfHDKE0GCGlmU1S//l2Iwf1yWBYj/qX2Fizq4wrXOsgeVBM9zI/ZkQ3/rDyAO7tPgjv/H/DqDPq/HyQINEBfLh0B89/vZ5RuS/whvNlPD4PuybcQuaU36C8bXe5jbbkwN7pHNjb2kPjwkP78uw3MPP6Jzjvie8o253LfN9VAAS1y1rbH9g++xpeVTNw9hjFzLENn5i3syTA1qJKLn76a2bor5jmWMxpaiO/9eUBsNgcSK9zniW7ESt1ioab0C+DpbceU7VP+5tXTmJY9xT++EYPpiw6llnuFzlt87OUv/gGz7t7o77WbPjBYFF5No5B0zj1rIvBm9zofLXW/Pkta0mM+r5IlAUjbMovZ1DiChgU2/kx4/tmAIp7Co/gpsInYM3HMPiYWs9Xuh2vjlmTcePG6YULGz5RpL0yTU3IMHn7h6288uYr/Mn1AmMc6wgNOAbPCfdDqjQtNZVhanaVBuiemkBpIMzWokr+9uDDjHWs4Z+R0xikcrne9QrTHItxK4OgdrNK9ySEmyQCpPcaSq6rJ3rcpQzo35+XF25hQLaf0T1Tmb1gM5989iHTnQs52fkVOSqfXJ3FD+ZAJkyczKbUiSyM9OOKqYPi/TJ0Omt3lXLUffP4xegeFCz7nFPV5wxUW0nwuNgR9DLCsZF0VUZYecnNmkzRwJMYM+0s7p+zkf5ZSZw4pgfBiInX5aixeaoyZDD0Lx8C+weJK19YTLdUH3+eaX0xmLc6jzueeY2PvTfALx6I6dI5Wmv63fg+biJ8lPBH+iaD4zfzUP6sRVrvv3G6BIl2IhQxWbatmA+X7iDHXcqWxR/Ru+wnxqlVDHVsRvu7oY6+FUadKU1LLaDvrD37Nr979WTmrs7j8Y8WcWmPDQxTG3HuWkqO2s12nUF3VcAAx3Yi2kEpibgw2KCtpTwyVQk5Kp+IdvCdOZQJ593KL97zsKGgglW3z+gw+yC0V5vzK+iVkcB36wt4eM4arpo6iEFd/Uy/fx6T+qeTnLeIIbs/4TjnArJVMYZWlJKIRuFyuVije7HGPYSh44+k35jD+XQLnDg6B1Nr8sqCHPK3z4H9g0T0/RVNv+ejlbi//DvXul6D61dBcmyXgpmzahdvLN7K5iXzeNV7B66eY1G//qTGICHNTW2Y1po5q3bx5rcriKz/kvF6CSc7lnOAYwsAla4EVjv6kzf5r2QfekG7nJHb3qy8fQY+t5NA2OAe/KRNPJuEbD9nPf4dAP8690DOe2Exw9VG/tJvJSs3b8dNhN5qFyHcbNNZdD/hJq5f2hdHYgaTh4zh9b4RDK0lQLQBvTOt5tlDBmRyyIA9iyl+M+tIfG4nociBTLtvEF91+T29C74mpWAJA5KC9MpIZPmW3Qx3bOQU4w3cX70KX8F4ncWC9/qRb/opCDm51x1ip07jk3tf4jDvGhzT72BjykFV+WjTRAVL+HHdNh70fAF9p8Y8QABMHdKFqUO68OcEN9d8X8DDWx6o9VypSbQhRRUhPluxiy0b1+BY9ynekg0c7FjBCLUBp9KEHV6WOoezJmksp592Lqr7aHBKnG8N0W966/563J6Z27tKGZDtJ2Jqbn1nGRdP7k+PNB9nPPotvz6sP78Y3YN7P1qF06HISU+gsDxEv6ykVl0gUMRe2DBxKoXDoSiqCOFzO/G6HPz9o1UkuJ0cPzSV3z/0AmMdaxjrWMcAtY1kVUFPtbvG+5VrL0t0f0LaRY7azQDHdgq131oi/KIPoM+hLfZciipCHHrX54wML+Xlu37fPpublFIzgAcAJ/Ck1vquus5vD0Fi6dZispO9BEJhflixhsEJJXz74xK2bVjBMc6FTHBYm4KEtJNdqaPwDpqK7ncYXQ6YVO+YZtEy9m0OEKIuq3aUUhGKMCInlS9W5bFyewmzv1jIZHMhXyUdw0sXjebBDxYTWjuPi1wfMtqxnnWmNTkw7EpCG2HSp99At0nntnhZP162g4+X7+QfZ4xpf0FCKeUEVgNHY60f/D1wttZ6eW3XxDtIaLvZYF1eGYFgEEewjGBZASpYTHFhPms3biC8ZTETHSsZqjbhVXvvbbDD04ek8efiGT6TrY4e9O+WHqdnIqqTICGaa9wdn7K7LFi113fYMNmwu5wZ939BBqVcOH08vzl8AG6no+pzpDUppdpln8QEYK3Wej2AUuol4ESg1iCxuyzI7E++ok/eHNDaGq2oqy+loFFoe/ss+2dA6T1pVjr2sXVt9BqFxtRQGghTWVmBO1KOGSihqyeIxyjHGS4jRVXSVZfjV4H9yjcFCDld7EgewU/JZ1KZ1BN/lz5k9+hHr74D6ZaUXdXx3L9ZL50Qoi1J9rnYXRbE67ImArqdDgZ3TcbEwW5SuerIPSPa2lL/VFsPEjnAlmrHucDEfU9SSl0KXArg6TaQD+Z8wbOee2NaEFOr6uEDjSKiXJSRSDmJhIwkQs4kwoldKXIkEXIlU+lMIiUtk8SUTPClkpSaSY9uPfB1HUhvdwK9Y1pC0ZJOO6gnry7KjXcxRDt22eH9ueG1JfvtizJ1SDZrdpXFqVT1a+vNTacBM7TWv7aPzwcmaq2vqu2asQcepL+Y9yWEywFlfytXe0aF2scohar2eNV5Dsdex9Z5+0v0ONtUtBdCiOZor81NW4Fe1Y572mm1cjoUqf5EQGYaCyFEc7X1lcO+BwYppfoppTzAWcDbcS6TEEJ0Gm26JqG1jiilrgI+whoC+7TWelmciyWEEJ1Gmw4SAFrr94H3410OIYTojNp6c5MQQog4kiAhhBCiVhIkhBBC1EqChBBCiFq16cl0TaGUKgV2AMWNuCy1kedHZQE1L+0Y+7yacl1TytfUvNr6a9ia5WtKfm399WvqdR2xfE3Nq63/jodorfffck9r3aH+AQuBxxt5TaPOr55XE65pal6Nvq4p5WtGXm36NWzN8jUlv7b++jXjde9w5WtGXm36d1xbPh21uemdFj6/OZqaV1svo5Svefm19devOde1Vj5t/TVs6+WrUUdsblqoa1h/pL3n1RRtvXzQ9sso5WseKV/ztVYZa8unI9YkHu+geTVFWy8ftP0ySvmaR8rXfK1Vxhrz6XA1CSGEELHTEWsSQgghYkSChBBCiFpJkGgApdRJSimtlDog3mWpi1Kqzu2tlFJfKKVavZNOKdVTKfWWUmqNUmqdUuoBe+n32s6/VinVqhuC1PfaxZO8/5pH3n/NI0GiYc4GvrL/bzCllLNlitN+KGv7vteBN7XWg4DBgB+4s47LrkV2japO3n9NJO+/5pMgUQ+llB+YDFyMtekRSqkjlFLzlFLvKaVWKaUeVUo57MfKlFL/UEr9BBwSh/IeoZR6t9rxw0qpC1u7HNUcCQS01s8AaK0N4LfAr5RSSUqpe5VSS5VSPyulrlZK/R/QA5ijlJrTmgVVSvmVUp8ppRYrpZYopU600/sqpVYopZ5QSi1TSn2slEporTIh77/mkPdfM0mQqN+JwIda69VAvlLqIDt9AnA1MAwYAJxipycB87XWo7XWX7V6adue4cCi6gla6xJgM/BroC8wRms9CnhBa/0gsA2YqrWe2splDQAna60PBKYC/1B7NjIfBDyitR4OFAGntlKZ5P3XPPL+ayYJEvU7G3jJ/vkl9lT5F2it19vfTF7E+rYHYACvtW4R260jgMe01hEArXVBfIuDAv6qlPoZ+BTIAbraj23QWv9o/7wI68OlNcj7r+Ucgbz/6tXmd6aLJ6VUBlZ1daRSSmNtoaqB9+z/q4seB+w/3HiJsHfw98WrILblwGnVE5RSKUBvYGM8ClSHc4Fs4CCtdVgptZE9r1+w2nkG0OLVfXn/xYS8/5pJahJ1Ow34j9a6j9a6r9a6F7ABOAyYoJTqZ7cFn4nVsdgWbAKGKaW8Sqk0YFqcy/MZkKiU+iVUdab+A3gWa+/y3yilXPZjGfY1pcD+q1G2vFRgl/0HOhXoE4cyVCfvv+aT918zSZCo29nAG/ukvWanfw88DKzA+sPd97xWZb/Rg1rrLcDLwFL7/x/iWS5tTek/GThdKbUGWI3V9vpH4EmstuGf7Y7Wc+zLHgc+bK2Ow+hrB7wAjFNKLQF+CaxsjfzrIO+/ZpL3X/PJshxNoJQ6Avid1npmnItSRSk1GnhCaz0h3mVpb9rbayfvv46lrb92UpPoAJRSl2F1Xt4U77K0N/LaNZ+8hk3XHl47qUkIIYSoldQkRKeilOqllJqjlFpuT0y6xk7PUEp9oqylGz5RSqXb6efaE62WKKW+sZsGovd6Wim1Sym1NF7PR7Q/sXoP1nafmJdXahKiM1FKdQe6a60XK6WSscacnwRcCBRore9SSs0C0rXWNyilDgVWaK0LlVLHArdorSfa95oClAHPa61HxOP5iPYnVu/B2u6jtV4ey/JKTUJ0Klrr7VrrxfbPpVijg3KwZjY/Z5/2HNYfLVrrb7TWhXb6d0DPaveaB8R7ApZoZ2L1HqzjPjElQUJ0WkqpvsBYYD7QVWu93X5oB3tmulZ3MfBB65ROdAaxeg/uc5+YkhnXolNS1sJ5rwHXaq1L9iyRY42tt2c4Vz9/KtYf6GSEiIFYvQf3vU+syyk1CdHpKKXcWH9UL2itX7eTd9ptvNE2413Vzh+FNfHqRK11fmuXV3Q8sXoP1nKfmJIgIToVe1XNp7A6Au+r9tDbwAX2zxcAb9nn98baj+B8eyVWIZolVu/BOu4T2/LK6CbRmSilJgNfAksA007+I1Zb7stYC79tAs7QWhcopZ7EWpZ5k31uRGs9zr7Xi1griWYBO4GbtdZPtdJTEe1UrN6Dtd1Ha/1+TMsrQUIIIURtpLlJCCFErSRICCGEqJUECSGEELWSICGEEKJWEiSEEELUSoKEEDGklLpFKfW7Oh4/SSk1rDXLJERzSJAQonWdBEiQEO2GzJMQopmUUn/CmiG7C9iCtWRzMXAp4AHWAucDY4B37ceKsSZIATwCZAMVwCVa6zaxt7EQIEFCiGZRSh0EPAtMxFowczHwKPBMdI0dpdQdwE6t9UNKqWeBd7XWr9qPfQZcprVeo5SaCPxNa31k6z8TIWomq8AK0TyHAW9orSsAlFJv2+kj7OCQBviBj/a90F6981DglWorgHpbusBCNIYECSFaxrNYu4T9pJS6EGuNp305gCKt9ZjWK5YQjSMd10I0zzzgJKVUgr2F5C/s9GRgu72U87nVzi+1H8Ne+3+DUup0sFb1rL6HthBtgQQJIZrB3j5yNvAT1o5h39sP/RlrVc+vgeod0S8Bv1dK/aCUGoAVQC5WSv0ELMPawlKINkM6roUQQtRKahJCCCFqJUFCCCFErSRICCGEqJUECSGEELWSICGEEKJWEiSEEELUSoKEEEKIWkmQEEIIUav/Byhn3nmbsCivAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\n","text/plain":["<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"]},"metadata":{"needs_background":"light"},"output_type":"display_data"},{"data":{"text/plain":["<Figure size 432x288 with 0 Axes>"]},"metadata":{},"output_type":"display_data"}],"source":["import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n","fields = ['new_cases', 'new_cases_smoothed']\n","c_covid[fields].plot()\n","plt.show()\n","plt.savefig('smooth.png')"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"9f8c446a","metadata":{"id":"orrIf1ImjolQ","papermill":{"duration":0.040701,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.934173","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.893472","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["### Elimination of missing data\n"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"e65d7cb5","metadata":{"id":"OyOgB9-NjolR","papermill":{"duration":0.040673,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.015935","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:43.975262","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["As you can see, there are large fluctuations in the new cases plot. Let's try to make a forecast for these waves.\n","First of all, we should delete missing data using **pandas.DataFrame.dropna()**\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":10,"id":"2c02974b","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.102139Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.101476Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.116039Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.116642Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:09.027477Z"},"id":"9GwadSLqjolS","papermill":{"duration":0.059122,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.116812","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.05769","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/html":["<div>\n","<style scoped>\n","    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n","        vertical-align: middle;\n","    }\n","\n","    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n","        vertical-align: top;\n","    }\n","\n","    .dataframe thead th {\n","        text-align: right;\n","    }\n","</style>\n","<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n","  <thead>\n","    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th>new_cases</th>\n","      <th>new_cases_smoothed</th>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>date</th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","    </tr>\n","  </thead>\n","  <tbody>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-02-05</th>\n","      <td>0.0</td>\n","      <td>0.429</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-02-06</th>\n","      <td>0.0</td>\n","      <td>0.286</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-02-07</th>\n","      <td>0.0</td>\n","      <td>0.286</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-02-08</th>\n","      <td>0.0</td>\n","      <td>0.286</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-02-09</th>\n","      <td>0.0</td>\n","      <td>0.143</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>...</th>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-02-25</th>\n","      <td>11499.0</td>\n","      <td>14762.714</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-02-26</th>\n","      <td>10273.0</td>\n","      <td>13377.714</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-02-27</th>\n","      <td>8013.0</td>\n","      <td>12229.429</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-02-28</th>\n","      <td>6915.0</td>\n","      <td>11302.286</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-03-01</th>\n","      <td>7554.0</td>\n","      <td>10224.000</td>\n","    </tr>\n","  </tbody>\n","</table>\n","<p>756 rows × 2 columns</p>\n","</div>"],"text/plain":["            new_cases  new_cases_smoothed\n","date                                     \n","2020-02-05        0.0               0.429\n","2020-02-06        0.0               0.286\n","2020-02-07        0.0               0.286\n","2020-02-08        0.0               0.286\n","2020-02-09        0.0               0.143\n","...               ...                 ...\n","2022-02-25    11499.0           14762.714\n","2022-02-26    10273.0           13377.714\n","2022-02-27     8013.0           12229.429\n","2022-02-28     6915.0           11302.286\n","2022-03-01     7554.0           10224.000\n","\n","[756 rows x 2 columns]"]},"execution_count":10,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["c_covid = c_covid[fields].dropna()\n","c_covid"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"4006220a","metadata":{"id":"0g93hJUJjolT","papermill":{"duration":0.041102,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.19918","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.158078","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["### Data transformation\n"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"a9beb2db","metadata":{"id":"kXxia8tOjolT","papermill":{"duration":0.040907,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.281148","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.240241","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":[" To check for dependencies, it is necessary to perform a correlation analysis between them. This requires:\n","\n","1.  duplicating of data and moving it vertically down for a certain number of days (lag)\n","2.  deleting the missing data at the beginning and end **pandas.DataFrame.shift()**\n","3.  calculating the correlation coefficient between the obtained series.\n","\n","It is convenient to create a separate function for lag:\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":11,"id":"e1580ffb","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.366309Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.365679Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.372465Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.372999Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:09.046339Z"},"id":"TsFjwyuLjolV","papermill":{"duration":0.051018,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.373175","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.322157","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[],"source":["def lag_correlation_ts(y, x, lag):\n","    \"\"\"\n","   \n","    y: fixed\n","    x: shifted\n","    lag: lag for shifting\n","    r: DataFrame of lags correlation coefficients\n","    \"\"\"\n","    r = [0] * (lag + 1)\n","    y = y.copy()\n","    x = x.copy()\n","    y.name = \"y\"\n","    x.name = \"x\"\n","\n","    for i in range(0, lag + 1):\n","        ds = y.copy().to_frame()\n","        ds = ds.join(x.shift(i), how='outer')\n","        r[i] = ds.corr().values[0][1]\n","    r = pd.DataFrame(r)\n","    r.index.names = ['Lag']\n","    r.columns = ['Correlation']\n","    return r"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"33e6635c","metadata":{"id":"zEWzS05xjolX","papermill":{"duration":0.040855,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.455108","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.414253","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["Let's create a target DataSet.\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":12,"id":"84d74534","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.54014Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.539506Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.546601Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.547178Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:09.05696Z"},"id":"x0dTv-hAjolY","papermill":{"duration":0.051307,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.547345","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.496038","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/plain":["date\n","2020-02-05        0.0\n","2020-02-06        0.0\n","2020-02-07        0.0\n","2020-02-08        0.0\n","2020-02-09        0.0\n","               ...   \n","2022-02-25    11499.0\n","2022-02-26    10273.0\n","2022-02-27     8013.0\n","2022-02-28     6915.0\n","2022-03-01     7554.0\n","Name: new_cases, Length: 756, dtype: float64"]},"execution_count":12,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["y_dataset = c_covid['new_cases']\n","y_dataset"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"50d94cb9","metadata":{"id":"LxE_B-hWjolY","papermill":{"duration":0.041254,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.629999","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.588745","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["Let's test a 50-day lag.\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":13,"id":"a5cb103f","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.716319Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.715686Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.003054Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.002454Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:09.073205Z"},"id":"Q5JvTDvPjolZ","papermill":{"duration":0.331357,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.003193","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:44.671836","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["     Correlation\n","Lag             \n","0         1.0000\n","1         0.9945\n","2         0.9861\n","3         0.9774\n","4         0.9667\n","5         0.9544\n","6         0.9417\n","7         0.9259\n","8         0.9026\n","9         0.8771\n","10        0.8521\n","11        0.8265\n","12        0.8000\n","13        0.7745\n","14        0.7467\n","15        0.7136\n","16        0.6803\n","17        0.6489\n","18        0.6179\n","19        0.5874\n","20        0.5590\n","21        0.5301\n","22        0.4979\n","23        0.4666\n","24        0.4383\n","25        0.4112\n","26        0.3856\n","27        0.3624\n","28        0.3397\n","29        0.3147\n","30        0.2910\n","31        0.2703\n","32        0.2511\n","33        0.2329\n","34        0.2168\n","35        0.2014\n","36        0.1839\n","37        0.1669\n","38        0.1529\n","39        0.1399\n","40        0.1279\n","41        0.1178\n","42        0.1070\n","43        0.0935\n","44        0.0805\n","45        0.0694\n","46        0.0592\n","47        0.0495\n","48        0.0414\n","49        0.0330\n","50        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1qVODhd5Ywe+Ner0sSkfOgQJdfKBMWzOsDk6kVG8k94xeyYvshr0sSkUJSoMuvxESG8ebgtkSXCWXQG/NJ3XvU65JEpBAU6HJaVaPLMP7utuTkOu4cO1+TT4v4AQW6nFGduLKMHdSGtPRMBr0xn/SMLK9LEpGzUKDLWSXVqMCIO1qxdlc6wyYuJDNbMx+JlFQKdDmnbg0q82yf5szasI/fTV5KroYIECmR1A9dCqVP60T2HsnkH1+sIa5sOE/e0FhDBIiUMAp0KbR7Lr2EPemZvD7zJ+LKhfNAt7pelyQiBSjQpdDMjMevbcTeI5k899VaKkaF0bdtDa/LEpF8CnQ5L0FBxnM3t+DgsSz+56PllAkNpldSgtdliQi6KSpFEBYSxGsDWtOudkUeeW8pX67Y5XVJIoICXYooIjSYMQPb0CIxmt9MWsS0tXu8Lkmk1FOgS5GVDQ/hjbva0qBKOYZNWKjBvEQ8pkCXCxJdJpTxg9tRs1IkQ95MYeHm/V6XJFJqKdDlglWMCmPikHbEl49g0NgFLN+mERpFvKBAF5+oXC6Ct4a0IzoylAFj57F652GvSxIpdRTo4jPVYsowaWh7yoQGc8eYeazfne51SSKligJdfKp6xUjeHtqeoCCj35h5bEo74nVJIqWGAl18rnZsFG8PaUdurqPf6Hls2XfM65JESgUFuhSLevHlmDikHRnZOfQdPZftB497XZJIwFOgS7FpVLU8E+9uR3pGFv1Gz2XXoQyvSxIJaAp0KVZNE6IZf3c79h05Qb/Rc9lzWKEuUlwKFehm1sPM1prZBjN77Az73Gpmq8xspZm97dsyxZ+1rB7DuLvasPtwBrePnsuedIW6SHE4Z6CbWTDwCnAN0Bjoa2aNT9mnHvBHoJNzrgkw3Pelij9LrlWRcYPbsutQBv1Gz9Ok0yLFoDBX6G2BDc65Tc65E8A7QM9T9hkKvOKcOwDgnNNITfIrbWpV5I1Bbdh+4Dj9x8xl7xGFuogvFSbQE4CtBZa35a8rqD5Q38xmmdlcM+txujcys3vMLMXMUtLS0opWsfi1dpdUYuygNmzZf4w7xsxjn0JdxGd8dVM0BKgHdAX6AqPNLObUnZxzo5xzyc655Li4OB8dWvxNhzqVeH1gG37ae5T+Y+ax/+gJr0sSCQiFCfTtQPUCy4n56wraBkx1zmU5534C1pEX8CKn1aluLGMGJrNp71H6jZ6rNnURHyhMoC8A6plZbTMLA24Hpp6yzxTyrs4xs1jymmA2+a5MCURd6sUxdmAbNu87xq2vzdHDRyIX6JyB7pzLBh4EvgJWA5OdcyvN7GkzuzF/t6+AfWa2CpgG/ME5t6+4ipbA0bleLBOHtGXvkUxufXUOP+096nVJIn7LnHOeHDg5OdmlpKR4cmwpeVZsP8SdY+cTZMbEIW1pWKW81yWJlEhmttA5l3y6bXpSVEqEpgnRTL63PcFBcNtrc1my9aDXJYn4HQW6lBh1K5fj/WEdKV8mhP6j5zJ3k1rtRM6HAl1KlOoVI3nv3o5UjSnDwLHz+WGdnlcQKSwFupQ4VaIjePee9tSJK8vQN1P4euUur0sS8QsKdCmRKpUNZ9LQ9jSuVp773lrE1KU7vC5JpMRToEuJFR0ZysQh7UiuWYGH31nM5JSt5/4ikVJMgS4lWtnwEMbd1ZbOdWN59P1ljJ+T6nVJIiWWAl1KvDJhwYwZmMyVjeP588crGTVjo9cliZRICnTxC+EhwYzo34rrm1flfz9fw4S5m70uSaTECfG6AJHCCg0O4vnbWpKRlcufP15B+YgQerY8dSRnkdJLV+jiV0KDg3i5XxLta1fid5OX8u2q3V6XJFJiKNDF70SEBjN6YDJNq5Xn/rcXMWejnigVAQW6+Kmfe7/UrBjJkDcXsFRjv4go0MV/VYgKY8Ld7agQFcbAN+azfne61yWJeEqBLn6tSnQEbw1pR2hwEHe8Po/N+zSeupReCnTxezUrRTHx7nacyM6l3+h5mvlISi0FugSEBlXKMeHudhzOyKLf6LnsPpzhdUkiF50CXQJG04Ro3hzclr3pmfQfM4+9RzTxtJQuCnQJKK1qVOD1QW3YduAYA16fz8FjJ7wuSeSiUaBLwGl/SSVGDUhm454jDBw7n/SMLK9LErkoFOgSkC6tH8eI/q1YueMwd72xQKEupYICXQLWFY3jebFvEku2HqT/mHkcOKrmFwlsCnQJaNc2q8prA1qzZlc6t742R71fJKAp0CXgXd4onnF3tWHHwePc8uoctu4/5nVJIsVCgS6lQsc6sbw1tD2Hjmdx86uzNUyABCQFupQaLavHMPneDuQ6uPW1OSzfdsjrkkR8SoEupUqDKuV4794ORIaF0Hf0XGZv3Ot1SSI+o0CXUqdWbBTv39eBajERDBq7gE+X7fC6JBGfUKBLqVQ1ugzv3duRFtWj+c2kxbwx6yevSxK5YAp0KbWiI0OZcHc7rmocz18+WcUzX6zBOed1WSJFpkCXUi0iNJgR/VvTv10NXv1hI49MXkpWTq7XZYkUSaEC3cx6mNlaM9tgZo+dZb8+ZubMLNl3JYoUr+Ag42+9mvLIlfX5cPF27n4zhSOZ2V6XJXLezhnoZhYMvAJcAzQG+ppZ49PsVw54GJjn6yJFipuZ8ZvL6/HMTc2YtWEvN4+crYkyxO8U5gq9LbDBObfJOXcCeAfoeZr9/go8C+jZavFbt7etwdhBbdh+4Di9XpmlyafFrxQm0BOArQWWt+WvO8nMWgHVnXOf+bA2EU9cVj+OD+7vSHhIELeNmsOXK3Z6XZJIoVzwTVEzCwL+AzxSiH3vMbMUM0tJS0u70EOLFJv68eWY8kAnGlUtz7CJixgxfYN6wEiJV5hA3w5UL7CcmL/uZ+WApsB0M0sF2gNTT3dj1Dk3yjmX7JxLjouLK3rVIhdBbNlwJg1tzw0tqvHPL9fy6PvLOJGtHjBScoUUYp8FQD0zq01ekN8O9Pt5o3PuEBD787KZTQd+75xL8W2pIhdfRGgwL97ektqxUbz43XrW7znCiP6tqBZTxuvSRH7lnFfozrls4EHgK2A1MNk5t9LMnjazG4u7QBGvmRm/u7I+I/u3YsOeI1z34o/MWKcmQyl5zKt2weTkZJeSoot48S+b0o5w38RFrNuTzvDL6/Ob7nUJCjKvy5JSxMwWOudO+6yPnhQVOQ+XxJXlowc60qtlAs9/u47Bby7Q1HZSYijQRc5TZFgI/7m1BX/r1ZTZG/Zx/UszWaL+6lICKNBFisDMuKN9Td4b1gGAW16dzdiZP6lro3hKgS5yAVpUj+GzhzpzWf04nv50FfdNXMSh41lelyWllAJd5ALFRIYx+s5kHr+2Ed+u3s0NL83U9HbiCQW6iA+YGUMvvYR37+1Adk4ufUbOZvycVDXByEWlQBfxodY1K/DZQ13oVLcSf/54Jb99dwkZWTlelyWlhAJdxMcqRIXx+sA2PHJlfaYs2cHto+ayJ12DkErxU6CLFIOgoLzx1Uf2b8XaXen0enkWK7arXV2KlwJdpBhd06wq7w3rgANueVVD8UrxUqCLFLOmCdF8/GAnGlQpx7CJi3jpu/W6WSrFQoEuchFULhfBO/e0p1fLavz7m3U8OGkxRzVvqfiYAl3kIokIDeb521ry2DUN+WL5TnqPmMWmtCNelyUBRIEuchGZGcMuq8P4we1IS8+k58uz+GbVbq/LkgChQBfxQOd6sXzym87Uio1i6PgU/v31WnJy1a4uF0aBLuKRxAqRvDesA7e0TuSl7zcweNwCDh7TULxSdAp0EQ9FhAbzz5ub8/feTZm9cS/X/PdHflyv2ZCkaBToIh4zM/q3q8kH93UkMiyYAa/P54kpKzh2Qr1g5Pwo0EVKiOaJMXz2UBfu7lybifM2c+1/f2Th5v1elyV+RIEuUoJEhAbzxPWNeXtIe7JyHLe8Oodnv1xDZrYG+JJzU6CLlEAd6lTiy+FduKV1dUZO38gNL81k0ZYDXpclJZwCXaSEKhcRyrM3N2fsoGTSM7LpM3I2T01dyRE9YSpnoEAXKeG6N4zn699eyp3ta/LmnFSu+s8PfL9GDyPJrynQRfxAuYhQ/tKzKe8P60hUeAiDx6Xw4NuLSEvP9Lo0KUEU6CJ+5OcZkX57RX2+Xrmby/89nQlzUvWUqQAKdBG/ExYSxMNX1OPzh7vQNCGaJz5eSc9XZrJYN01LPQW6iJ+qW7ksbw1px0t9k0hLz+SmkbP544fLOHBUwweUVgp0ET9mZtzQohrfPdKVIZ1rMzllG93+PZ235m0mOyfX6/LkIlOgiwSAsuEhPH5dYz5/qAv148vx+EcruOqFGXy5YqdmRypFFOgiAaRBlXK8e097XhvQGgOGTVxE7xGzmbtpn9elyUWgQBcJMGbG1U2q8NXwS3m2TzN2Hcrg9lFzGfTGfFbtOOx1eVKMzKtfx5KTk11KSoonxxYpTTKychg3O5UR0zZwOCOb65pXZfjl9agXX87r0qQIzGyhcy75dNsKdYVuZj3MbK2ZbTCzx06z/XdmtsrMlpnZd2ZW80KLFhHfiAgNZthldfjx0e482K0u09fs4aoXZjD8ncX8tPeo1+WJD53zCt3MgoF1wJXANmAB0Nc5t6rAPt2Aec65Y2Z2H9DVOXfb2d5XV+gi3th/9ASvzdjI+NmbOZGTS++kBB7qXo8alSK9Lk0K4UKv0NsCG5xzm5xzJ4B3gJ4Fd3DOTXPOHctfnAskXkjBIlJ8KkaF8cdrGjHj0W4M6liLT5bu4PL/TOd/P19NekaW1+XJBShMoCcAWwssb8tfdyZ3A1+cboOZ3WNmKWaWkpamabZEvBRXLpwnrm/MjEe7cVNSIqN/3ES3f/3A5JSt5GooAb/k014uZnYHkAw8d7rtzrlRzrlk51xyXFycLw8tIkUUXz6CZ29uzscPdKJGxTI8+v4yeo+YpfHX/VBhAn07UL3AcmL+ul8wsyuAx4EbnXMaAk7EzzRPjOGD+zry/G0t2Hkog5tGzOZ37y5h16EMr0uTQipMoC8A6plZbTMLA24HphbcwcySgNfIC/M9vi9TRC4GM6N3UiLTft+V+7vW4dNlO+n2r+k8/806TVrtB84Z6M65bOBB4CtgNTDZObfSzJ42sxvzd3sOKAu8Z2ZLzGzqGd5ORPxAVHgIj/ZoyHePXEb3RpX573fr6frcdN5T+3qJpgeLROScFm7ez18/Xc2SrQdpUq08j1/XiI51Yr0uq1S64AeLRKR0a12zIh/d35EX+yZx8FgW/UbP47bX5jBt7R4N/lWC6ApdRM5LRlYOb83bwpgfN7HzUAYNq5Tjvq51uK5ZVUKCdY1Y3M52ha5AF5EiOZGdy9SlO3j1h41s2HOExAplGNrlEm5JTiQyLMTr8gKWAl1Eik1uruO7NXsYOX0Di7YcpHxECLe3rcGA9jWpXlHDCfiaAl1Eip1zjoWbD/DG7FS+XLEL5xxXNo7nrk61aVe7ImbmdYkB4WyBrt+LRMQnzIzkWhVJrlWRnYeOM2HOZibN38JXK3fTsEo5BnSoSc+WCZQNV+wUF12hi0ixycjKYeqSHbwxO5XVOw8TGRZMz5bV6Nu2Bs0TY7wuzy+pyUVEPOWcY8nWg0yav4VPlu7keFYOTRPK07dtDW5oUY3yEaFel+g3FOgiUmIczsji48XbeWveFtbsSicsOIhL68dyXfOqXNEonnIK97NSoItIieOcY+m2Q3y6dAefLd/JzkMZhIUEcVn9OK5rVpUrGservf00FOgiUqLl5joWbz3IZ8t28vnynew6nEFEaBBXNa5Cr6RqdKkXR6geWgIU6CLiR3JzHQu3HODjJdv5dNlODh7LomJUGDc0r0qvpARaVo8p1V0gFegi4pdOZOcyY10aHy3ZzrerdpOZnUu9ymUZ0qU2PVsmEBEa7HWJF50CXUT8XnpGFl8s38W42ams2nmYSlFhDOhQkzva1yS2bLjX5V00CnQRCRjOOeZs2seYH3/i+zV7CAsJok+rBAZ3qk29+HJel1fs9KSoiAQMM6NjnVg61ollw54jvD7zJz5ctI1J87fSpV4sd3WqRdf6lQkKKn3t7LpCFxG/t+9IJpPmb2HC3M3sPpxJ7dgoBnaoyc3J1QOu66OaXESkVMjKyeXz5TsZNzuVxVsOUjY8hD6tEri5dXWaJpQPiN4xCnQRKXWWbD3IG7N+4ovluziRk9c75qZWifROSqBKdITX5RWZAl1ESq1Dx7L4bPlOPly0jZTNBzCDTnVi6Z2UwFVN/G+oAQW6iAiQuvcoHy3ezoeLt7F1/3HCQoLoWj+O61tU44pGlf1ipiUFuohIAT8PNfDpsh18tmwne9IziQgN4vKG8VzfvCqXNYgrseGuQBcROYOcXMeC1P18umwHXyzfxb6jJ4gIDaJr/cr0aFqF7o0ql6jhfRXoIiKFkJ2Ty/yf9vPlyl18tXIXuw9nEhpsdKoby9VNqnBZ/TiqxZTxtEYFuojIefq5Wearlbv4YsVOtu4/DsAlcVF0qRtL53pxtL+k4kW/qapAFxG5AM451u0+wo/r05i5YS/zNu3neFYOwUFGUvUYutSL49L6sTRPjCG4mJ9QVaCLiPhQZnYOizYfZOaGNH5cv5fl2w/hHMREhtKpbiyX1Yvj0vpxxdLfXYEuIlKM9h89wcwNe5mxLo0Z69LYk54JQHLNCvRulcD1zaoRHembphkFuojIReKcY+3udL5bvYePFm9nw54jhAUHcXmjytzUKpHL6scRFlL02ZcU6CIiHnDOsWL7YT5cvI2pS3aw7+gJKkSG8tSNTejZMqFI76nhc0VEPGBmNEuMplliNP9zbSN+XJ/Gh4u2k1BMXR8LFehm1gP4LxAMjHHOPXPK9nBgPNAa2Afc5pxL9W2pIiL+KzQ4iO4N4+neML7YjnHOhhwzCwZeAa4BGgN9zazxKbvdDRxwztUFngee9XWhIiJydoVpmW8LbHDObXLOnQDeAXqesk9P4M381+8Dl1sgDDwsIuJHChPoCcDWAsvb8teddh/nXDZwCKh06huZ2T1mlmJmKWlpaUWrWERETqvofWeKwDk3yjmX7JxLjouLu5iHFhEJeIUJ9O1A9QLLifnrTruPmYUA0eTdHBURkYukMIG+AKhnZrXNLAy4HZh6yj5TgYH5r28GvndedXAXESmlztlt0TmXbWYPAl+R121xrHNupZk9DaQ456YCrwMTzGwDsJ+80BcRkYuoUP3QnXOfA5+fsu7PBV5nALf4tjQRETkfnj36b2ZpwOYifnkssNeH5fgDnXPpoHMuHS7knGs6507bq8SzQL8QZpZyprEMApXOuXTQOZcOxXXOF7XbooiIFB8FuohIgPDXQB/ldQEe0DmXDjrn0qFYztkv29BFROTX/PUKXURETqFAFxEJEH4X6GbWw8zWmtkGM3vM63qKg5mNNbM9ZraiwLqKZvaNma3P/7uClzX6kplVN7NpZrbKzFaa2cP56wP5nCPMbL6ZLc0/57/kr69tZvPyP9/v5g+3EVDMLNjMFpvZp/nLAX3OZpZqZsvNbImZpeSvK5bPtl8FeiEn2wgE44Aep6x7DPjOOVcP+C5/OVBkA4845xoD7YEH8v9dA/mcM4HuzrkWQEugh5m1J29ymOfzJ4s5QN7kMYHmYWB1geXScM7dnHMtC/Q9L5bPtl8FOoWbbMPvOedmkDcmTkEFJxF5E+h1MWsqTs65nc65Rfmv08n7z55AYJ+zc84dyV8Mzf/jgO7kTRIDAXbOAGaWCFwHjMlfNgL8nM+gWD7b/hbohZlsI1DFO+d25r/eBRTfxIQeMrNaQBIwjwA/5/ymhyXAHuAbYCNwMH+SGAjMz/cLwKNAbv5yJQL/nB3wtZktNLN78tcVy2e7UINzScninHNmFnD9Tc2sLPABMNw5d7jgLIaBeM7OuRygpZnFAB8BDb2tqHiZ2fXAHufcQjPr6nE5F1Nn59x2M6sMfGNmawpu9OVn29+u0Asz2Uag2m1mVQHy/97jcT0+ZWah5IX5W865D/NXB/Q5/8w5dxCYBnQAYvIniYHA+3x3Am40s1Tymku7A/8lsM8Z59z2/L/3kPeDuy3F9Nn2t0AvzGQbgargJCIDgY89rMWn8ttRXwdWO+f+U2BTIJ9zXP6VOWZWBriSvHsH08ibJAYC7Jydc390ziU652qR93/3e+dcfwL4nM0syszK/fwauApYQTF9tv3uSVEzu5a8drifJ9v4u7cV+Z6ZTQK6kjfE5m7gSWAKMBmoQd6ww7c65069ceqXzKwz8COwnP9rW/0f8trRA/Wcm5N3MyyYvAuryc65p83sEvKuXisCi4E7nHOZ3lVaPPKbXH7vnLs+kM85/9w+yl8MAd52zv3dzCpRDJ9tvwt0ERE5PX9rchERkTNQoIuIBAgFuohIgFCgi4gECAW6iEiAUKBLqWNmR869l4j/UaCLiAQIBboIYGY35I/JvdjMvjWz+Pz1cfnjVa80szFmttnMYr2uV+R0FOgieWYC7Z1zSeQ9tfho/vonyXtEvQl5Q7zW8Kg+kXPSaIsieRKBd/MHSgoDfspf3xnoDeCc+9LMDnhUn8g56QpdJM9LwMvOuWbAvUCEx/WInDcFukieaP5v2NaBBdbPAm4FMLOrgICZ11QCjwbnklLHzHKBHQVW/Ye82YKeJ29Oy++BNs65rvmTEkwib0aZOcD1QK1AGQ1QAosCXeQszCwcyHHOZZtZB2Ckc66lx2WJnJZuioqcXQ1gspkFASeAoR7XI3JGukIXEQkQuikqIhIgFOgiIgFCgS4iEiAU6CIiAUKBLiISIP4/c+RW6IZNYT8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\n","text/plain":["<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"]},"metadata":{"needs_background":"light"},"output_type":"display_data"}],"source":["pd.options.display.float_format = '{:,.4f}'.format\n","l = pd.DataFrame(lag_correlation_ts(y_dataset, y_dataset, 50)) \n","print(l)\n","l.plot()\n","plt.savefig('df.png')"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"8c36d2d8","metadata":{"id":"-eZ9tcidjola","papermill":{"duration":0.042649,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.088637","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.045988","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["To automate this process, let's make a universal function for time series transformation to create this DataSet.\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":14,"id":"50b6e4bf","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.186397Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.185732Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.189312Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.189842Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:09.417638Z"},"id":"D6AFsIPsjolb","papermill":{"duration":0.05881,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.190064","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.131254","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[],"source":["def series_to_supervised(in_data, tar_data, n_in=1, dropnan=True, target_dep=False):\n","\n","    n_vars = in_data.shape[1]\n","    cols, names = list(), list()\n","\n","    if target_dep:\n","        i_start = 1\n","    else:\n","        i_start = 0\n","    for i in range(i_start, n_in + 1):\n","        cols.append(in_data.shift(i))\n","        names += [('%s(t-%d)' % (in_data.columns[j], i)) for j in range(n_vars)]\n","\n","    if target_dep:\n","        for i in range(n_in, -1, -1):\n","            cols.append(tar_data.shift(i))\n","            names += [('%s(t-%d)' % (tar_data.name, i))]\n","    else:\n","        # put it all together\n","        cols.append(tar_data)\n","        names.append(tar_data.name)\n","    agg = pd.concat(cols, axis=1)\n","    agg.columns = names\n","\n","    # drop rows with NaN values\n","    if dropnan:\n","        agg.dropna(inplace=True)\n","\n","    return agg"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"f88e5742","metadata":{"id":"Rz7l6YB7jolc","papermill":{"duration":0.042892,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.276796","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.233904","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":[" When forecasting time series, the input and output fields are the same, only shifted by the lag.\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":15,"id":"de612de6","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.366374Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.365626Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.393884Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.393224Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:09.428877Z"},"id":"aUQorOh_jolc","papermill":{"duration":0.073919,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.394024","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.320105","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/html":["<div>\n","<style scoped>\n","    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n","        vertical-align: middle;\n","    }\n","\n","    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n","        vertical-align: top;\n","    }\n","\n","    .dataframe thead th {\n","        text-align: right;\n","    }\n","</style>\n","<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n","  <thead>\n","    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-0)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-1)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-2)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-3)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-4)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-5)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-6)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-7)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-8)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-9)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-10)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-11)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-12)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-13)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases(t-14)</th>\n","      <th>new_cases</th>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>date</th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","      <th></th>\n","    </tr>\n","  </thead>\n","  <tbody>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-02-19</th>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-02-20</th>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-02-21</th>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-02-22</th>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2020-02-23</th>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","      <td>0.0000</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>...</th>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","      <td>...</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-02-25</th>\n","      <td>11,499.0000</td>\n","      <td>13,166.0000</td>\n","      <td>14,148.0000</td>\n","      <td>15,102.0000</td>\n","      <td>13,405.0000</td>\n","      <td>16,051.0000</td>\n","      <td>19,968.0000</td>\n","      <td>22,270.0000</td>\n","      <td>25,920.0000</td>\n","      <td>30,757.0000</td>\n","      <td>30,615.0000</td>\n","      <td>27,409.0000</td>\n","      <td>34,113.0000</td>\n","      <td>44,877.0000</td>\n","      <td>50,407.0000</td>\n","      <td>11,499.0000</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-02-26</th>\n","      <td>10,273.0000</td>\n","      <td>11,499.0000</td>\n","      <td>13,166.0000</td>\n","      <td>14,148.0000</td>\n","      <td>15,102.0000</td>\n","      <td>13,405.0000</td>\n","      <td>16,051.0000</td>\n","      <td>19,968.0000</td>\n","      <td>22,270.0000</td>\n","      <td>25,920.0000</td>\n","      <td>30,757.0000</td>\n","      <td>30,615.0000</td>\n","      <td>27,409.0000</td>\n","      <td>34,113.0000</td>\n","      <td>44,877.0000</td>\n","      <td>10,273.0000</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-02-27</th>\n","      <td>8,013.0000</td>\n","      <td>10,273.0000</td>\n","      <td>11,499.0000</td>\n","      <td>13,166.0000</td>\n","      <td>14,148.0000</td>\n","      <td>15,102.0000</td>\n","      <td>13,405.0000</td>\n","      <td>16,051.0000</td>\n","      <td>19,968.0000</td>\n","      <td>22,270.0000</td>\n","      <td>25,920.0000</td>\n","      <td>30,757.0000</td>\n","      <td>30,615.0000</td>\n","      <td>27,409.0000</td>\n","      <td>34,113.0000</td>\n","      <td>8,013.0000</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-02-28</th>\n","      <td>6,915.0000</td>\n","      <td>8,013.0000</td>\n","      <td>10,273.0000</td>\n","      <td>11,499.0000</td>\n","      <td>13,166.0000</td>\n","      <td>14,148.0000</td>\n","      <td>15,102.0000</td>\n","      <td>13,405.0000</td>\n","      <td>16,051.0000</td>\n","      <td>19,968.0000</td>\n","      <td>22,270.0000</td>\n","      <td>25,920.0000</td>\n","      <td>30,757.0000</td>\n","      <td>30,615.0000</td>\n","      <td>27,409.0000</td>\n","      <td>6,915.0000</td>\n","    </tr>\n","    <tr>\n","      <th>2022-03-01</th>\n","      <td>7,554.0000</td>\n","      <td>6,915.0000</td>\n","      <td>8,013.0000</td>\n","      <td>10,273.0000</td>\n","      <td>11,499.0000</td>\n","      <td>13,166.0000</td>\n","      <td>14,148.0000</td>\n","      <td>15,102.0000</td>\n","      <td>13,405.0000</td>\n","      <td>16,051.0000</td>\n","      <td>19,968.0000</td>\n","      <td>22,270.0000</td>\n","      <td>25,920.0000</td>\n","      <td>30,757.0000</td>\n","      <td>30,615.0000</td>\n","      <td>7,554.0000</td>\n","    </tr>\n","  </tbody>\n","</table>\n","<p>742 rows × 16 columns</p>\n","</div>"],"text/plain":["            new_cases(t-0)  new_cases(t-1)  new_cases(t-2)  new_cases(t-3)  \\\n","date                                                                         \n","2020-02-19          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000   \n","2020-02-20          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000   \n","2020-02-21          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000   \n","2020-02-22          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000   \n","2020-02-23          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000   \n","...                    ...             ...             ...             ...   \n","2022-02-25     11,499.0000     13,166.0000     14,148.0000     15,102.0000   \n","2022-02-26     10,273.0000     11,499.0000     13,166.0000     14,148.0000   \n","2022-02-27      8,013.0000     10,273.0000     11,499.0000     13,166.0000   \n","2022-02-28      6,915.0000      8,013.0000     10,273.0000     11,499.0000   \n","2022-03-01      7,554.0000      6,915.0000      8,013.0000     10,273.0000   \n","\n","            new_cases(t-4)  new_cases(t-5)  new_cases(t-6)  new_cases(t-7)  \\\n","date                                                                         \n","2020-02-19          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000   \n","2020-02-20          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000   \n","2020-02-21          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000   \n","2020-02-22          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000   \n","2020-02-23          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000          0.0000   \n","...                    ...             ...             ...             ...   \n","2022-02-25     13,405.0000     16,051.0000     19,968.0000     22,270.0000   \n","2022-02-26     15,102.0000     13,405.0000     16,051.0000     19,968.0000   \n","2022-02-27     14,148.0000     15,102.0000     13,405.0000     16,051.0000   \n","2022-02-28     13,166.0000     14,148.0000     15,102.0000     13,405.0000   \n","2022-03-01     11,499.0000     13,166.0000     14,148.0000     15,102.0000   \n","\n","            new_cases(t-8)  new_cases(t-9)  new_cases(t-10)  new_cases(t-11)  \\\n","date                                                                           \n","2020-02-19          0.0000          0.0000           0.0000           0.0000   \n","2020-02-20          0.0000          0.0000           0.0000           0.0000   \n","2020-02-21          0.0000          0.0000           0.0000           0.0000   \n","2020-02-22          0.0000          0.0000           0.0000           0.0000   \n","2020-02-23          0.0000          0.0000           0.0000           0.0000   \n","...                    ...             ...              ...              ...   \n","2022-02-25     25,920.0000     30,757.0000      30,615.0000      27,409.0000   \n","2022-02-26     22,270.0000     25,920.0000      30,757.0000      30,615.0000   \n","2022-02-27     19,968.0000     22,270.0000      25,920.0000      30,757.0000   \n","2022-02-28     16,051.0000     19,968.0000      22,270.0000      25,920.0000   \n","2022-03-01     13,405.0000     16,051.0000      19,968.0000      22,270.0000   \n","\n","            new_cases(t-12)  new_cases(t-13)  new_cases(t-14)   new_cases  \n","date                                                                       \n","2020-02-19           0.0000           0.0000           0.0000      0.0000  \n","2020-02-20           0.0000           0.0000           0.0000      0.0000  \n","2020-02-21           0.0000           0.0000           0.0000      0.0000  \n","2020-02-22           0.0000           0.0000           0.0000      0.0000  \n","2020-02-23           0.0000           0.0000           0.0000      0.0000  \n","...                     ...              ...              ...         ...  \n","2022-02-25      34,113.0000      44,877.0000      50,407.0000 11,499.0000  \n","2022-02-26      27,409.0000      34,113.0000      44,877.0000 10,273.0000  \n","2022-02-27      30,615.0000      27,409.0000      34,113.0000  8,013.0000  \n","2022-02-28      30,757.0000      30,615.0000      27,409.0000  6,915.0000  \n","2022-03-01      25,920.0000      30,757.0000      30,615.0000  7,554.0000  \n","\n","[742 rows x 16 columns]"]},"execution_count":15,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["dataset = series_to_supervised(pd.DataFrame(y_dataset), y_dataset, 14)\n","dataset"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"cfe6bfd6","metadata":{"id":"uyhomtQOjold","papermill":{"duration":0.043388,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.481093","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.437705","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["As you can see, the first and last columns contain the same target data.\n","Now we should create input (**X**) and output (**Y**) .\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":16,"id":"1f849173","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.575755Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.57509Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.578808Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.579533Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:09.466942Z"},"id":"HfNkGMxYjold","papermill":{"duration":0.054855,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.579763","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.524908","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["Input:  Index(['new_cases(t-1)', 'new_cases(t-2)', 'new_cases(t-3)', 'new_cases(t-4)',\n","       'new_cases(t-5)', 'new_cases(t-6)', 'new_cases(t-7)', 'new_cases(t-8)',\n","       'new_cases(t-9)', 'new_cases(t-10)', 'new_cases(t-11)',\n","       'new_cases(t-12)', 'new_cases(t-13)', 'new_cases(t-14)'],\n","      dtype='object')\n","Target: new_cases\n"]}],"source":["col = dataset.columns\n","X, Y = dataset[col[1:-1]], dataset[col[-1]]\n","print(\"Input: \", X.columns)\n","print(\"Target:\", Y.name)"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"e0ebcaf4","metadata":{"id":"Fe_XPrg2jole","papermill":{"duration":0.043318,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.668356","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.625038","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["### Data normalization\n"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"e2c26819","metadata":{"id":"BDsWx7rHjolf","papermill":{"duration":0.043534,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.756611","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.713077","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["After that, we should normalize all the data. To do this, the **sklearn.preprocessing.MinMaxScaler** module should be used.\n","It allows us to normalize **fit_transform()** and convert back all the data easily: **inverse_transform()**.\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":17,"id":"0c668f2b","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.851165Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.848277Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:46.804204Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:46.803655Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:09.476465Z"},"id":"33T04gPBjolf","papermill":{"duration":1.003546,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:46.804351","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:45.800805","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[],"source":["from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler\n","scaler_x = MinMaxScaler(feature_range=(0, 1))\n","scaler_y = MinMaxScaler(feature_range=(0, 1))\n","\n","scaled_x = scaler_x.fit_transform(X)\n","scaled_y = scaler_y.fit_transform(Y.values.reshape(-1, 1))"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"0cc83abf","metadata":{"id":"1S3RMN93jolg","papermill":{"duration":0.043788,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:46.893225","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:46.849437","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["After that, we are going to form training and test DataSets using **sklearn.model_selection.train_test_split()**. \n","\n","We will make them at the ratio of 73/27. Without shuffling. It means, that test samples are located in the end of **X** and **Y** DataSets.\n","\n","Input normalized DataSets: **X_train, X_test**\n","\n","Target normalized DataSets: **y_train, y_test**\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":18,"id":"8935d056","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:46.988969Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:46.988268Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.047826Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.047219Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:09.497182Z"},"id":"5PCYCVmOjoli","papermill":{"duration":0.108701,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.047998","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:46.939297","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[],"source":["from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split\n","X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(scaled_x, scaled_y, test_size=0.29, shuffle=False)"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":19,"id":"136d60a9","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.140145Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.139474Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.145062Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.145614Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:09.514054Z"},"papermill":{"duration":0.053238,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.14578","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.092542","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["(526, 14)\n","(526, 1)\n","(216, 14)\n","(216, 1)\n"]}],"source":["print(X_train.shape)\n","print(y_train.shape)\n","print(X_test.shape)\n","print(y_test.shape)"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"778bfc2b","metadata":{"id":"tMMBy15ejolk","papermill":{"duration":0.044461,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.235157","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.190696","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["All the data is normalized now. However, in order to compare to results, we need real scale data of the training and test DataSet:\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":20,"id":"20d0a300","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.332513Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.331713Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.335309Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.33481Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:09.530006Z"},"id":"6GNfTSkcjoll","papermill":{"duration":0.052974,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.335476","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.282502","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[],"source":["res_train = scaler_y.inverse_transform(y_train).flatten()\n","res_test = scaler_y.inverse_transform(y_test).flatten()"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"dd3c7b9e","metadata":{"id":"Ir65XC3ujoln","papermill":{"duration":0.044017,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.424329","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.380312","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["Target real scale DataSets: **res_train, res_test**.\n"]},{"cell_type":"markdown","id":"67fc69d6","metadata":{"papermill":{"duration":0.044021,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.512883","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.468862","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"source":["# Arima "]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":21,"id":"6b2501cb","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.605783Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.605088Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:20:58.93079Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:20:58.930138Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:09.542751Z"},"papermill":{"duration":11.373695,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:58.930959","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:47.557264","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["Collecting pmdarima\r\n","  Downloading pmdarima-1.8.5-cp37-cp37m-manylinux_2_17_x86_64.manylinux2014_x86_64.manylinux_2_24_x86_64.whl (1.4 MB)\r\n","     |████████████████████████████████| 1.4 MB 4.6 MB/s            \r\n","\u001b[?25hRequirement already satisfied: scikit-learn>=0.22 in /opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from pmdarima) (0.23.2)\r\n","Requirement already satisfied: Cython!=0.29.18,>=0.29 in /opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from pmdarima) (0.29.26)\r\n","Requirement already satisfied: pandas>=0.19 in /opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from pmdarima) (1.3.5)\r\n","Requirement already satisfied: urllib3 in /opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from pmdarima) (1.26.7)\r\n","Requirement already satisfied: setuptools!=50.0.0,>=38.6.0 in /opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from pmdarima) (59.5.0)\r\n","Requirement already satisfied: joblib>=0.11 in /opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from pmdarima) (1.1.0)\r\n","Requirement already satisfied: scipy>=1.3.2 in /opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from pmdarima) (1.7.3)\r\n","Requirement already satisfied: numpy>=1.19.3 in /opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from pmdarima) (1.20.3)\r\n","Requirement already satisfied: statsmodels!=0.12.0,>=0.11 in /opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from pmdarima) (0.13.1)\r\n","Requirement already satisfied: python-dateutil>=2.7.3 in /opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from pandas>=0.19->pmdarima) (2.8.0)\r\n","Requirement already satisfied: pytz>=2017.3 in /opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from pandas>=0.19->pmdarima) (2021.3)\r\n","Requirement already satisfied: threadpoolctl>=2.0.0 in /opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from scikit-learn>=0.22->pmdarima) (3.0.0)\r\n","Requirement already satisfied: patsy>=0.5.2 in /opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from statsmodels!=0.12.0,>=0.11->pmdarima) (0.5.2)\r\n","Requirement already satisfied: six in /opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from patsy>=0.5.2->statsmodels!=0.12.0,>=0.11->pmdarima) (1.16.0)\r\n","Installing collected packages: pmdarima\r\n","Successfully installed pmdarima-1.8.5\r\n","\u001b[33mWARNING: Running pip as the 'root' user can result in broken permissions and conflicting behaviour with the system package manager. It is recommended to use a virtual environment instead: https://pip.pypa.io/warnings/venv\u001b[0m\r\n"]}],"source":["!pip install pmdarima"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":22,"id":"67d4b010","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:20:59.03681Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:20:59.035845Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:21:29.730103Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:21:29.730949Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:18.620804Z"},"papermill":{"duration":30.751057,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:21:29.731193","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:58.980136","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/ipykernel_launcher.py:2: FutureWarning: The pandas.datetime class is deprecated and will be removed from pandas in a future version. Import from datetime module instead.\n","  \n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["Performing stepwise search to minimize aic\n"," ARIMA(2,1,2)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2737.637, Time=1.03 sec\n"," ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2691.205, Time=0.12 sec\n"," ARIMA(1,1,0)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2701.241, Time=0.12 sec\n"," ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2702.396, Time=0.23 sec\n"," ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,0,0)[0]             : AIC=-2693.145, Time=0.03 sec\n"," ARIMA(1,1,2)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2698.888, Time=0.60 sec\n"," ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2698.375, Time=0.34 sec\n"," ARIMA(3,1,2)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2739.994, Time=1.55 sec\n"," ARIMA(3,1,1)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2738.276, Time=1.40 sec\n"," ARIMA(4,1,2)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2724.653, Time=1.83 sec\n"," ARIMA(3,1,3)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2823.874, Time=1.92 sec\n"," ARIMA(2,1,3)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2701.004, Time=1.17 sec\n"," ARIMA(4,1,3)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2742.995, Time=2.11 sec\n"," ARIMA(3,1,4)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2752.019, Time=2.41 sec\n"," ARIMA(2,1,4)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2755.439, Time=2.29 sec\n"," ARIMA(4,1,4)(0,0,0)[0] intercept   : AIC=-2712.654, Time=2.46 sec\n"," ARIMA(3,1,3)(0,0,0)[0]             : AIC=-2837.091, Time=1.11 sec\n"," ARIMA(2,1,3)(0,0,0)[0]             : AIC=-2739.851, Time=0.99 sec\n"," ARIMA(3,1,2)(0,0,0)[0]             : AIC=-2744.652, Time=0.72 sec\n"," ARIMA(4,1,3)(0,0,0)[0]             : AIC=-2817.886, Time=1.26 sec\n"," ARIMA(3,1,4)(0,0,0)[0]             : AIC=-2754.219, Time=1.16 sec\n"," ARIMA(2,1,2)(0,0,0)[0]             : AIC=-2744.516, Time=0.74 sec\n"," ARIMA(2,1,4)(0,0,0)[0]             : AIC=-2765.803, Time=1.22 sec\n"," ARIMA(4,1,2)(0,0,0)[0]             : AIC=-2752.001, Time=0.97 sec\n"," ARIMA(4,1,4)(0,0,0)[0]             : AIC=-2800.396, Time=1.85 sec\n","\n","Best model:  ARIMA(3,1,3)(0,0,0)[0]          \n","Total fit time: 29.683 seconds\n"]}],"source":["\n","# fit an ARIMA model and plot residual errors\n","from pandas import datetime\n","from pandas import read_csv\n","from pandas import DataFrame\n","from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA\n","from pmdarima import auto_arima\n","\n","from matplotlib import pyplot\n","# load dataset\n","auto_arima_model=auto_arima(y_train,trace=True,Supress_warnings=True)"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":23,"id":"8042333c","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:21:29.858044Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:21:29.852253Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.064034Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.064922Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:45.826515Z"},"papermill":{"duration":1.270661,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.065201","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:21:29.79454","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning: Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals\n","  ConvergenceWarning)\n"]}],"source":["arima_model_202 = ARIMA(y_train, order=(3,1,3)).fit()"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":24,"id":"acd26557","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.233068Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.23237Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.248654Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.248036Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:46.929746Z"},"papermill":{"duration":0.080331,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.248805","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.168474","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/html":["<table class=\"simpletable\">\n","<caption>SARIMAX Results</caption>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>Dep. Variable:</th>           <td>y</td>        <th>  No. Observations:  </th>    <td>526</td>   \n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>Model:</th>            <td>ARIMA(3, 1, 3)</td>  <th>  Log Likelihood     </th> <td>1425.545</td> \n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>Date:</th>            <td>Thu, 03 Mar 2022</td> <th>  AIC                </th> <td>-2837.091</td>\n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>Time:</th>                <td>03:21:31</td>     <th>  BIC                </th> <td>-2807.247</td>\n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>Sample:</th>                  <td>0</td>        <th>  HQIC               </th> <td>-2825.404</td>\n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th></th>                      <td> - 526</td>      <th>                     </th>     <td> </td>    \n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>Covariance Type:</th>        <td>opg</td>       <th>                     </th>     <td> </td>    \n","</tr>\n","</table>\n","<table class=\"simpletable\">\n","<tr>\n","     <td></td>       <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>ar.L1</th>  <td>    0.5304</td> <td>    0.019</td> <td>   28.099</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.493</td> <td>    0.567</td>\n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>ar.L2</th>  <td>   -0.5220</td> <td>    0.021</td> <td>  -25.021</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.563</td> <td>   -0.481</td>\n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>ar.L3</th>  <td>    0.9463</td> <td>    0.018</td> <td>   52.184</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.911</td> <td>    0.982</td>\n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>ma.L1</th>  <td>   -0.4032</td> <td>    0.030</td> <td>  -13.438</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.462</td> <td>   -0.344</td>\n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>ma.L2</th>  <td>    0.4865</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>   13.658</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.417</td> <td>    0.556</td>\n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>ma.L3</th>  <td>   -0.7607</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>  -22.473</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.827</td> <td>   -0.694</td>\n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>sigma2</th> <td>    0.0003</td> <td> 7.57e-06</td> <td>   33.893</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n","</tr>\n","</table>\n","<table class=\"simpletable\">\n","<tr>\n","  <th>Ljung-Box (L1) (Q):</th>     <td>0.01</td>  <th>  Jarque-Bera (JB):  </th> <td>2120.67</td>\n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>Prob(Q):</th>                <td>0.94</td>  <th>  Prob(JB):          </th>  <td>0.00</td>  \n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>Heteroskedasticity (H):</th> <td>24.67</td> <th>  Skew:              </th>  <td>-0.50</td> \n","</tr>\n","<tr>\n","  <th>Prob(H) (two-sided):</th>    <td>0.00</td>  <th>  Kurtosis:          </th>  <td>12.79</td> \n","</tr>\n","</table><br/><br/>Warnings:<br/>[1] Covariance matrix calculated using the outer product of gradients (complex-step)."],"text/plain":["<class 'statsmodels.iolib.summary.Summary'>\n","\"\"\"\n","                               SARIMAX Results                                \n","==============================================================================\n","Dep. Variable:                      y   No. Observations:                  526\n","Model:                 ARIMA(3, 1, 3)   Log Likelihood                1425.545\n","Date:                Thu, 03 Mar 2022   AIC                          -2837.091\n","Time:                        03:21:31   BIC                          -2807.247\n","Sample:                             0   HQIC                         -2825.404\n","                                - 526                                         \n","Covariance Type:                  opg                                         \n","==============================================================================\n","                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n","------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n","ar.L1          0.5304      0.019     28.099      0.000       0.493       0.567\n","ar.L2         -0.5220      0.021    -25.021      0.000      -0.563      -0.481\n","ar.L3          0.9463      0.018     52.184      0.000       0.911       0.982\n","ma.L1         -0.4032      0.030    -13.438      0.000      -0.462      -0.344\n","ma.L2          0.4865      0.036     13.658      0.000       0.417       0.556\n","ma.L3         -0.7607      0.034    -22.473      0.000      -0.827      -0.694\n","sigma2         0.0003   7.57e-06     33.893      0.000       0.000       0.000\n","===================================================================================\n","Ljung-Box (L1) (Q):                   0.01   Jarque-Bera (JB):              2120.67\n","Prob(Q):                              0.94   Prob(JB):                         0.00\n","Heteroskedasticity (H):              24.67   Skew:                            -0.50\n","Prob(H) (two-sided):                  0.00   Kurtosis:                        12.79\n","===================================================================================\n","\n","Warnings:\n","[1] Covariance matrix calculated using the outer product of gradients (complex-step).\n","\"\"\""]},"execution_count":24,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["arima_model_202.summary()"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":25,"id":"5f0d1320","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.370488Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.369568Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.373759Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.373236Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:46.964458Z"},"papermill":{"duration":0.069157,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.373901","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.304744","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["72 to 714\n"]}],"source":["start = dataset.index.get_loc('2020-05-1')\n","end = dataset.index.get_loc('2022-02-02')\n","print(start,'to',end)\n"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":26,"id":"ff4960b4","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.489953Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.489234Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.513503Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.514083Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:46.989703Z"},"papermill":{"duration":0.084041,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.514249","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.430208","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["The length of pred_future values : 180\n"]},{"data":{"text/plain":["array([0.13302672, 0.13325197, 0.13317217, 0.13301586, 0.13318777,\n","       0.13328501, 0.13309895, 0.13311218, 0.13330834, 0.13322941,\n","       0.13309767, 0.13325462, 0.13333194, 0.13316637, 0.13318671,\n","       0.13335709, 0.13328017, 0.13316968, 0.13331246, 0.13337307,\n","       0.13322614, 0.13325168, 0.13339928, 0.1333252 , 0.13323303,\n","       0.13336249, 0.13340915, 0.13327912, 0.13330829, 0.1334358 ,\n","       0.13336515, 0.13328873, 0.13340574, 0.13344083, 0.13332606,\n","       0.13335758, 0.13346743, 0.13340062, 0.13333768, 0.13344312,\n","       0.13346868, 0.13336764, 0.13340048, 0.13349483, 0.13343211,\n","       0.13338069, 0.13347542, 0.13349316, 0.13340446, 0.1334378 ,\n","       0.13351857, 0.13346008, 0.13341844, 0.13350332, 0.13351472,\n","       0.13343706, 0.13347024, 0.13353917, 0.13348492, 0.13345157,\n","       0.13352742, 0.13353372, 0.13346591, 0.13349843, 0.13355704,\n","       0.13350699, 0.13348062, 0.13354822, 0.13355048, 0.13349143,\n","       0.13352291, 0.13357256, 0.13352659, 0.13350608, 0.13356618,\n","       0.13356527, 0.133514  , 0.13354416, 0.13358605, 0.13354401,\n","       0.13352839, 0.13358169, 0.13357833, 0.13353395, 0.1335626 ,\n","       0.13359778, 0.13355949, 0.13354793, 0.13359507, 0.13358988,\n","       0.13355158, 0.13357858, 0.13360799, 0.13357324, 0.13356502,\n","       0.13360662, 0.1336001 , 0.13356714, 0.13359244, 0.13361688,\n","       0.13358546, 0.13357997, 0.13361659, 0.13360915, 0.13358089,\n","       0.13360444, 0.13362464, 0.13359632, 0.13359303, 0.13362519,\n","       0.13361716, 0.13359301, 0.13361483, 0.1336314 , 0.13360596,\n","       0.13360445, 0.13363262, 0.13362427, 0.13360371, 0.13362382,\n","       0.13363731, 0.13361452, 0.13361442, 0.13363903, 0.13363057,\n","       0.13361313, 0.1336316 , 0.13364248, 0.13362212, 0.13362311,\n","       0.13364456, 0.13363616, 0.13362144, 0.13363832, 0.13364701,\n","       0.13362887, 0.13363069, 0.13364934, 0.13364112, 0.13362876,\n","       0.13364413, 0.13365097, 0.13363486, 0.1336373 , 0.13365347,\n","       0.13364553, 0.13363519, 0.13364915, 0.13365444, 0.13364018,\n","       0.13364306, 0.13365704, 0.13364945, 0.13364086, 0.13365349,\n","       0.1336575 , 0.13364489, 0.13364807, 0.13366013, 0.13365294,\n","       0.13364584, 0.13365723, 0.13366018, 0.13364907, 0.13365243,\n","       0.1336628 , 0.13365603, 0.13365021, 0.13366046, 0.13366254,\n","       0.13365278, 0.13365622, 0.13366511, 0.13365879, 0.13365406,\n","       0.13366325, 0.13366462, 0.13365607, 0.13365952, 0.13366711])"]},"execution_count":26,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["pred_future_10101=arima_model_202.predict(start=len(dataset)+1,end=len(dataset)+(180),dynamic=False)\n","print(\"The length of pred_future values :\",len(pred_future_10101))\n","pred_future_10101"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":27,"id":"7124894f","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.640622Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.639903Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:26:08.462988Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:26:08.464512Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:14:47.046441Z"},"papermill":{"duration":276.892259,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:26:08.46481","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:21:31.572551","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/ipykernel_launcher.py:4: FutureWarning: The pandas.datetime class is deprecated and will be removed from pandas in a future version. Import from datetime module instead.\n","  after removing the cwd from sys.path.\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.094267, expected=0.106787\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.112918, expected=0.100556\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.109852, expected=0.100995\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.095185, expected=0.096898\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.092060, expected=0.073756\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.079762, expected=0.102912\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.105095, expected=0.103774\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.093958, expected=0.107784\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.111508, expected=0.093262\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.101996, expected=0.094329\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.089113, expected=0.085707\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.078410, expected=0.068095\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.071622, expected=0.092598\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.094426, expected=0.099460\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.090063, expected=0.096864\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.099177, expected=0.093356\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.101507, expected=0.087117\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.081897, expected=0.079522\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.072749, expected=0.060760\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.063157, expected=0.084932\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.088211, expected=0.087885\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.079003, expected=0.088296\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.090426, expected=0.083192\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.090385, expected=0.074720\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.068309, expected=0.060533\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.053721, expected=0.061487\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.065832, expected=0.090763\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.092164, expected=0.111457\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.103491, expected=0.107821\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.112765, expected=0.112893\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.123333, expected=0.108847\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.105086, expected=0.103598\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.100511, expected=0.074703\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.079904, expected=0.101319\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.102331, expected=0.113697\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.106578, expected=0.109496\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.114392, expected=0.102895\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.112340, expected=0.103253\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.098844, expected=0.094035\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.088341, expected=0.075381\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.079660, expected=0.091444\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.092518, expected=0.104453\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.095925, expected=0.084438\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.084036, expected=0.080582\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.088029, expected=0.069029\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.061451, expected=0.065801\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.056453, expected=0.061334\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.065285, expected=0.065613\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.066227, expected=0.073807\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.065859, expected=0.083061\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.084214, expected=0.086101\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.091551, expected=0.074297\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.071139, expected=0.073049\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.070900, expected=0.063051\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.065228, expected=0.065101\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.065596, expected=0.077074\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.071206, expected=0.075768\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.074966, expected=0.071504\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.076861, expected=0.068389\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.066189, expected=0.062872\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.057305, expected=0.045378\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.046044, expected=0.045559\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.046064, expected=0.056808\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.050360, expected=0.064529\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.062655, expected=0.058799\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.059746, expected=0.055149\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.055140, expected=0.050216\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.047705, expected=0.044294\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.043114, expected=0.045470\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.046051, expected=0.054157\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.051893, expected=0.051322\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.047498, expected=0.047660\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.048797, expected=0.043859\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.043605, expected=0.043777\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.040386, expected=0.034557\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.033782, expected=0.038202\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.039571, expected=0.045842\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.044136, expected=0.040711\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.037725, expected=0.038584\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.040417, expected=0.034154\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.034049, expected=0.032826\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.029046, expected=0.031527\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.031686, expected=0.035305\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.036792, expected=0.044555\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.043280, expected=0.038113\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.036234, expected=0.039417\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.042351, expected=0.038403\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.038070, expected=0.034540\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.031060, expected=0.030006\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.030322, expected=0.032476\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.034108, expected=0.039006\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.036628, expected=0.034641\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.032925, expected=0.034557\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.035437, expected=0.030976\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.030725, expected=0.030213\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.026865, expected=0.025165\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.025173, expected=0.028738\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.030004, expected=0.031109\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.028808, expected=0.030732\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.029577, expected=0.026387\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.027937, expected=0.026138\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.025498, expected=0.027712\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.024556, expected=0.024448\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.024622, expected=0.027683\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.029194, expected=0.031606\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.030209, expected=0.030218\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.029361, expected=0.028610\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.030948, expected=0.027212\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.026883, expected=0.024697\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.022263, expected=0.021403\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.021544, expected=0.024619\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.025682, expected=0.028777\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.027329, expected=0.026814\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.025731, expected=0.024873\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.026843, expected=0.025322\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.024997, expected=0.020493\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.018545, expected=0.018298\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.018548, expected=0.022413\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.022956, expected=0.022017\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.019493, expected=0.025469\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.025126, expected=0.020083\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.021170, expected=0.021184\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.020543, expected=0.020061\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.018322, expected=0.016876\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.017115, expected=0.021618\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.022835, expected=0.023576\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.022044, expected=0.022251\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.021833, expected=0.020771\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.022658, expected=0.000000\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=-0.002224, expected=0.041529\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.042161, expected=0.016471\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.013630, expected=0.020375\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.024604, expected=0.022741\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.022738, expected=0.020285\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.016531, expected=0.019291\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.018910, expected=0.019018\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.021263, expected=0.017746\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.014382, expected=0.013965\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.012248, expected=0.016862\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.019789, expected=0.019252\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.018861, expected=0.017980\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.014895, expected=0.000000\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.000228, expected=0.017251\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.019037, expected=0.032942\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.029666, expected=0.012859\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.008884, expected=0.015252\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.022088, expected=0.018096\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.013950, expected=0.016056\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.010696, expected=0.017357\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.021891, expected=0.016869\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.019090, expected=0.015768\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.010801, expected=0.015351\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.014576, expected=0.022200\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.026840, expected=0.031759\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.031394, expected=0.040474\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.038860, expected=0.054987\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.060840, expected=0.066523\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.071763, expected=0.081485\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.083030, expected=0.090246\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.095901, expected=0.140267\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.153183, expected=0.219533\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.235328, expected=0.282722\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.303552, expected=0.342806\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.373857, expected=0.385410\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.414677, expected=0.433916\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.460548, expected=0.405765\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.432705, expected=0.470125\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.510819, expected=0.597354\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.632643, expected=0.637879\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.659148, expected=0.649060\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.695549, expected=0.654780\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.701044, expected=0.623120\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.631431, expected=0.574662\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.583319, expected=0.683192\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.720750, expected=0.766637\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.784426, expected=0.838397\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.852511, expected=0.815340\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.854436, expected=0.805270\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.839149, expected=0.738949\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.725412, expected=0.617773\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.604303, expected=0.690300\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.738429, expected=0.691435\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.675383, expected=0.606510\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.567649, expected=0.568660\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.607105, expected=0.565639\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.562437, expected=0.506818\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.452405, expected=0.403341\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.382027, expected=0.389644\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.406538, expected=0.416316\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.364850, expected=0.360691\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.350382, expected=0.308923\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.317762, expected=0.259481\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.223786, expected=0.202507\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.147864, expected=0.163204\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.160299, expected=0.172301\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.162743, expected=0.161965\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.113536, expected=0.140219\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.113984, expected=0.121701\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.120091, expected=0.108349\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.070754, expected=0.082361\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.060293, expected=0.066175\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.057011, expected=0.073916\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.066706, expected=0.074259\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.045721, expected=0.062580\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.063435, expected=0.053768\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.048480, expected=0.048210\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.024916, expected=0.038753\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.029978, expected=0.032365\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.034285, expected=0.036462\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.022502, expected=0.034158\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.018461, expected=0.031787\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.026331, expected=0.027763\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.021397, expected=0.024803\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.015260, expected=0.019346\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.016943, expected=0.016695\n"]},{"name":"stderr","output_type":"stream","text":["/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'\n","/opt/conda/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.\n","  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'\n"]},{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":["predicted=0.015793, expected=0.018238\n","Test RMSE: 0.023\n"]}],"source":["history = [x for x in y_train]\n","predictions = list()\n","from pandas import read_csv\n","from pandas import datetime\n","from matplotlib import pyplot\n","from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA\n","from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error\n","import warnings\n","from statsmodels.tools.sm_exceptions import ConvergenceWarning\n","warnings.simplefilter('ignore', ConvergenceWarning)\n","from math import sqrt\n","# walk-forward validation\n","for t in range(len(y_test)):\n","\tmodel = ARIMA(history, order=(3,1,3))\n","\tmodel_fit = model.fit()\n","\toutput = model_fit.forecast()\n","\tyhat = output[0]\n","\tpredictions.append(yhat)\n","\tobs = y_test[t]\n","\thistory.append(obs)\n","\tprint('predicted=%f, expected=%f' % (yhat, obs))\n","# evaluate forecasts\n","rmse = sqrt(mean_squared_error(y_test, predictions))\n","print('Test RMSE: %.3f' % rmse)"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":28,"id":"c3fc5f5e","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:26:08.900418Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:26:08.899723Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:26:08.902701Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:26:08.903334Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:19:27.627348Z"},"papermill":{"duration":0.201362,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:26:08.903524","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:26:08.702162","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/plain":["array([0.10678726, 0.10055579, 0.1009952 , 0.09689803, 0.07375636,\n","       0.1029122 , 0.10377413, 0.10778439, 0.093262  , 0.09432915,\n","       0.08570746, 0.06809468, 0.09259805, 0.09945967, 0.09686423,\n","       0.09335616, 0.08711744, 0.07952186, 0.06075985, 0.08493245,\n","       0.08788521, 0.08829565, 0.08319169, 0.07471969, 0.0605329 ,\n","       0.06148657, 0.09076313, 0.11145663, 0.1078206 , 0.11289318,\n","       0.10884671, 0.10359788, 0.07470279, 0.10131872, 0.11369716,\n","       0.10949617, 0.1028953 , 0.10325263, 0.09403459, 0.07538123,\n","       0.09144398, 0.10445257, 0.0844375 , 0.08058176, 0.06902904,\n","       0.06580104, 0.06133447, 0.06561272, 0.07380706, 0.08306132,\n","       0.086101  , 0.07429718, 0.07304895, 0.06305108, 0.06510087,\n","       0.0770737 , 0.07576753, 0.07150376, 0.06838923, 0.06287242,\n","       0.04537794, 0.04555902, 0.05680754, 0.06452867, 0.05879939,\n","       0.05514887, 0.05021633, 0.0442939 , 0.04546969, 0.05415657,\n","       0.0513221 , 0.04765952, 0.04385931, 0.04377722, 0.03455677,\n","       0.03820246, 0.0458415 , 0.04071098, 0.03858393, 0.03415357,\n","       0.03282567, 0.03152675, 0.03530522, 0.04455465, 0.03811313,\n","       0.03941688, 0.03840285, 0.03453987, 0.0300057 , 0.03247559,\n","       0.03900644, 0.03464127, 0.03455677, 0.03097627, 0.03021333,\n","       0.0251649 , 0.02873816, 0.03110906, 0.03073242, 0.02638657,\n","       0.02613789, 0.02771205, 0.02444784, 0.02768308, 0.03160642,\n","       0.03021816, 0.0286102 , 0.02721228, 0.02469651, 0.02140332,\n","       0.02461926, 0.02877679, 0.02681391, 0.02487276, 0.02532183,\n","       0.02049311, 0.01829845, 0.02241253, 0.02201657, 0.02546911,\n","       0.02008267, 0.02118362, 0.02006094, 0.01687639, 0.0216182 ,\n","       0.02357625, 0.02225077, 0.02077076, 0.        , 0.04152945,\n","       0.01647078, 0.02037481, 0.02274088, 0.02028547, 0.01929076,\n","       0.01901793, 0.01774556, 0.01396467, 0.01686191, 0.01925213,\n","       0.01797976, 0.        , 0.01725062, 0.03294156, 0.01285889,\n","       0.01525153, 0.01809565, 0.01605551, 0.01735685, 0.01686915,\n","       0.0157682 , 0.01535052, 0.02220006, 0.03175853, 0.04047437,\n","       0.05498711, 0.06652293, 0.08148474, 0.09024646, 0.14026722,\n","       0.21953316, 0.28272186, 0.34280568, 0.38540952, 0.43391648,\n","       0.40576501, 0.47012468, 0.59735434, 0.63787942, 0.64906033,\n","       0.65477995, 0.62312042, 0.57466175, 0.68319217, 0.76663737,\n","       0.83839706, 0.81533989, 0.80526959, 0.73894946, 0.61777261,\n","       0.69030006, 0.69143481, 0.6065096 , 0.56865964, 0.56563927,\n","       0.50681816, 0.40334099, 0.38964432, 0.41631578, 0.36069128,\n","       0.30892252, 0.2594812 , 0.20250707, 0.16320367, 0.17230098,\n","       0.1619651 , 0.14021893, 0.12170077, 0.10834935, 0.08236115,\n","       0.06617526, 0.07391571, 0.07425855, 0.06258028, 0.05376785,\n","       0.04820999, 0.03875293, 0.03236453, 0.0364617 , 0.0341584 ,\n","       0.0317875 , 0.02776276, 0.02480275, 0.01934629, 0.01669532,\n","       0.01823809])"]},"execution_count":28,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["y_test=y_test.flatten()\n","y_test"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":29,"id":"1db20fe2","metadata":{"execution":{"iopub.execute_input":"2022-03-03T03:26:09.297104Z","iopub.status.busy":"2022-03-03T03:26:09.296074Z","iopub.status.idle":"2022-03-03T03:26:09.658927Z","shell.execute_reply":"2022-03-03T03:26:09.659436Z","shell.execute_reply.started":"2022-03-03T03:19:27.656455Z"},"papermill":{"duration":0.567937,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:26:09.65961","exception":false,"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:26:09.091673","status":"completed"},"tags":[]},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/plain":["<AxesSubplot:xlabel='date'>"]},"execution_count":29,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"},{"data":{"image/png":"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\n","text/plain":["<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"]},"metadata":{"needs_background":"light"},"output_type":"display_data"}],"source":["df_2 = pd.DataFrame({'Actual test': y_test, 'ARIMA': predictions,})\n","df_2.index = dataset.index[len(dataset)-len(res_test):]\n","df_2.plot()"]}],"metadata":{"kernelspec":{"display_name":"Python 3","language":"python","name":"python3"},"language_info":{"codemirror_mode":{"name":"ipython","version":3},"file_extension":".py","mimetype":"text/x-python","name":"python","nbconvert_exporter":"python","pygments_lexer":"ipython3","version":"3.7.12"},"papermill":{"default_parameters":{},"duration":340.648903,"end_time":"2022-03-03T03:26:10.662261","environment_variables":{},"exception":null,"input_path":"__notebook__.ipynb","output_path":"__notebook__.ipynb","parameters":{},"start_time":"2022-03-03T03:20:30.013358","version":"2.3.3"}},"nbformat":4,"nbformat_minor":5}