Evaluation of bad RMSE lakes against PB0

[jordansread]

Now that we have the 6_evaluation stage set up, I was looking at some of the worst performers

Some of these have observations that don't make sense, such as 1° temperatures in October

Same kind of integer pattern in obs for another one

with values that don't make sense.

I thought maybe these would be a coop source where a column was flipped or something, but for the top worst sites, they all have wqp as the only source

real_bad_sites <- pb0_matched_to_observations %>% group_by(site_id) %>% summarize(rmse = sqrt(mean((pred-obs)^2, na.rm=TRUE)), n = length(depth)) %>% arrange(desc(rmse)) %>% head(10) %>% pull(site_id)
obs_for_eval <- scmake('obs_for_eval')

obs_for_eval %>% filter(site_id %in% real_bad_sites) %>% pull(source) %>% unique()
[1] "wqp"

This pattern seems to continue to at least the 20th worst site

I wonder if these are all from the same provider?

[jordansread]

For future reference in easy to copy/paste code form:

pb0_matched_to_observations %>% group_by(site_id) %>% summarize(rmse = sqrt(mean((pred-obs)^2, na.rm=TRUE)), n = length(depth)) %>% arrange(desc(rmse))
# A tibble: 2,377 x 3
   site_id          rmse     n
   <chr>           <dbl> <int>
 1 nhdhr_109986912  17.2    29
 2 nhdhr_109989488  15.3    14
 3 nhdhr_121207127  14.7    20
 4 nhdhr_121650602  13.2    69
 5 nhdhr_145608202  12.1    27
 6 nhdhr_109984628  11.8    21
 7 nhdhr_121650552  11.6    26
 8 nhdhr_121650633  11.4    83
 9 nhdhr_121207134  11.3    61
10 nhdhr_109987472  11.3    20
11 nhdhr_121627799 11.3     51
12 nhdhr_121628955 11.3     34
13 nhdhr_121650613 11.2     84
14 nhdhr_109990726 10.9     68
15 nhdhr_69545019  10.8     86
16 nhdhr_85083102  10.8     53
17 nhdhr_109989482 10.2     32
18 nhdhr_121650592 10.2     59
19 nhdhr_109986464  9.60    48
20 nhdhr_121625003  8.98   105
# … with 2,367 more rows

[jordansread]

The first 14 of those lakes all have monitoring locations that are prefixed with IL_EPA-

and they are mostly in the NE corner of IL:

Additionally, many (all?) seem to have ResultAnalyticalMethod/MethodIdentifier as "LAB"...which makes me wonder if these are the temperatures in the lab for some other extraction method vs actual field measurements...

[jordansread]

Out of all of these sites,

table(d$`ResultAnalyticalMethod/MethodIdentifier`)

FIELD   LAB 
 2714  1609 

median of FIELD is 21.205°, median of LAB is 3°...

[jordansread]

I have tacked on the monitoring ID to the source field for wqp data in the daily obs temperature build, so instead of getting source = 'wqp' we get a lot of different wqp sources, such as wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E16

Now, I can group by source instead of site_id and take an RMSE to see if there are particular sources that are really bad vs pb0 (this is from the pgmtl-data-release pipeline btw):

mutate(pb0_matched_to_observations, pred_diff = pred-obs) %>%
     group_by(source) %>% summarize(rmse = sqrt(mean((pred_diff)^2, na.rm=TRUE)), n = length(source)) %>% arrange(desc(rmse)) %>% print(n=100)
# A tibble: 2,924 x 3
    source                                                                   rmse     n
    <chr>                                                                   <dbl> <int>
  1 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E16                                                      19.7      7
  2 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E-16                                                     15.5    154
  3 wqp_IL_EPA-RML-1                                                        15.4      7
  4 wqp_USGS-475150098210000                                                15.1      2
  5 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E-9                                                      14.7     36
  6 wqp_SDDENR_WQX-WHITELAWL03                                              13.9     26
  7 wqp_WIDNR_WQX-10031157                                                  11.6     74
  8 wqp_MNPCA-21-0057-00-206                                                11.4     14
  9 wqp_SDWRAP-SWLAZZZ3703A                                                 10.9      6
 10 wqp_MNPCA-21-0103-00-202                                                10.7     24
 11 wqp_SDDENR_WQX-WALLZZZWL08                                              10.7      8
 12 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E17                                                      10.6     12
 13 wqp_MNPCA-21-0106-01-204                                                10.5     24
 14 wqp_MNPCA-21-0106-02-201                                                10.4      8
 15 wqp_IL_EPA_WQX-WGZJ-2                                                   10.3      2
 16 wqp_WIDNR_WQX-10029926                                                   9.92   174
 17 wqp_MNPCA-21-0085-00-207                                                 9.76    24
 18 7a_temp_coop_munge/tmp/South_Center_DO_2018_09_11_All.rds                9.61   853
 19 7a_temp_coop_munge/tmp/Carlos_DO_2018_11_05_All.rds                      9.57   996
 20 wqp_MNPCA-21-0054-00-205                                                 9.53    23
 21 7a_temp_coop_munge/tmp/Greenwood_DO_2018_09_14_All.rds                   9.51  1043
 22 wqp_MNPCA-77-0150-02-205                                                 9.34    52
 23 wqp_MNPCA-69-0939-02-203                                                 9.23    18
 24 wqp_MNPCA-82-0001-00-206                                                 8.98     2
 25 wqp_WIDNR_WQX-10033610                                                   8.92     4
 26 wqp_IL_EPA_WQX-RGE-2                                                     8.91     5
 27 wqp_NARS_WQX-NLA06608-0859                                               8.83    20
 28 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E-17                                                      8.78    82
 29 wqp_IL_EPA_WQX-RGE-1                                                     8.65    92
 30 wqp_IL_EPA_WQX-RTI-3                                                     8.48     3
 31 wqp_WIDNR_WQX-443514                                                     8.36    12
 32 wqp_MNPCA-27-0139-00-201                                                 8.33   253
 33 wqp_MNPCA-21-0052-00-205                                                 8.32    24
 34 wqp_USGS-454616092082100                                                 8.25     6
 35 wqp_IL_EPA_WQX-RGL-1                                                     8.17   140
 36 wqp_MNPCA-70-0091-00-452                                                 8.05     1
 37 wqp_MNPCA-11-0246-00-201                                                 8.03     1
 38 wqp_IL_EPA_WQX-RPC-2                                                     8.02     7
 39 wqp_MNPCA-19-0071-00-202                                                 7.98     5
 40 wqp_MNPCA-69-0790-00-201                                                 7.87    43
 41 wqp_MNPCA-27-0133-10-101                                                 7.85   120
 42 wqp_NALMS-6703                                                           7.83     4
 43 wqp_WIDNR_WQX-403112                                                     7.78    75
 44 wqp_MNPCA-69-0694-00-117                                                 7.73     1
 45 wqp_IL_EPA_WQX-RHD-2                                                     7.71     3
 46 wqp_MNPCA-18-0372-00-101                                                 7.69    95
 47 wqp_NALMS-3283                                                           7.63     1
 48 wqp_USGS-480352099093800                                                 7.61    11
 49 wqp_USGS-425235088075302                                                 7.60     1
 50 wqp_WIDNR_WQX-403107                                                     7.59   485
 51 wqp_MNPCA-29-0142-00-201                                                 7.58    10
 52 wqp_IL_EPA_WQX-RTW-1                                                     7.58   134
 53 wqp_MNPCA-21-0080-00-204                                                 7.56    24
 54 wqp_USGS-482018092292001                                                 7.48    36
 55 wqp_MNPCA-73-0139-00-204                                                 7.45    57
 56 wqp_WIDNR_WQX-193050                                                     7.40    17
 57 wqp_IL_EPA-WGX-1                                                         7.38     7
 58 wqp_IL_EPA_WQX-WGZJ-1                                                    7.37    63
 59 wqp_MNPCA-27-0062-03-202                                                 7.36     1
 60 wqp_MNPCA-18-0044-00-201                                                 7.31     1
 61 wqp_MNPCA-69-0859-02-201                                                 7.28     5
 62 wqp_USGS-423755088341700                                                 7.26    40
 63 wqp_USGS-435721084561801                                                 7.25     5
 64 wqp_MNPCA-15-0068-00-207                                                 7.24    38
 65 wqp_IL_EPA_WQX-RPA-1                                                     7.17    99
 66 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-W-4                                                       7.17   216
 67 wqp_MNPCA-82-0033-00-201                                                 7.15    50
 68 wqp_MNPCA-62-0005-00-201                                                 7.14     2
 69 wqp_WIDNR_WQX-403110                                                     7.13  1712
 70 wqp_MNPCA-82-0031-00-201                                                 7.12     5
 71 wqp_MNPCA-21-0123-00-218                                                 7.10    24
 72 wqp_MNPCA-27-0014-00-201                                                 7.09  2286
 73 wqp_MNPCA-77-0215-00-209                                                 7.07   101
 74 7a_temp_coop_munge/tmp/Tenmile_1997_Temperatures.rds                     7.06    28
 75 wqp_SDDENR_WQX-KINGSBUC03                                                7.02    16
 76 wqp_MNPCA-71-0159-00-203                                                 7.00     5
 77 wqp_USGS-454856094544602                                                 6.99    37
 78 wqp_MNPCA-77-0215-00-202                                                 6.98    80
 79 wqp_IL_EPA_WQX-RGE-3                                                     6.98     8
 80 wqp_21NDHDWQ-385455                                                      6.98     5
 81 wqp_MNPCA-82-0110-00-451                                                 6.92    22
 82 wqp_MNPCA-16-0253-00-202                                                 6.86     1
 83 wqp_USGS-444016085310201                                                 6.82     6
 84 wqp_MNPCA-19-0024-00-451                                                 6.80    11
 85 wqp_MNPCA-27-0129-00-201                                                 6.77     1
 86 wqp_IL_EPA_WQX-RGB-2                                                     6.77     9
 87 wqp_MNPCA-18-0358-00-201                                                 6.75     4
 88 wqp_MNPCA-69-0939-01-204                                                 6.73    89
 89 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-RND-3                                                     6.71   168
 90 wqp_WIDNR_WQX-513088                                                     6.67   307
 91 wqp_WIDNR_WQX-013144                                                     6.66   103
 92 wqp_MNPCA-61-0023-00-204                                                 6.66    10
 93 wqp_WIDNR_WQX-10007592                                                   6.63    13
 94 wqp_USGS-425235088075300                                                 6.62    28
 95 wqp_MNPCA-27-0133-02-205                                                 6.56     2
 96 wqp_IL_EPA_WQX-RTW-2                                                     6.55     2
 97 wqp_USGS-435009088550100                                                 6.54     9
 98 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-W7                                                        6.51    14
 99 7a_temp_coop_munge/tmp/grant_mnlakedata_historicalfiles_manualentry.rds  6.50    64
100 wqp_IL_EPA_WQX-VTJ-1                                                     6.46   129
# … with 2,824 more rows

and taking the first one off the top since it has a small number of obs:

pb0_matched_to_observations %>% filter(source == 'wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E16')
# A tibble: 7 x 6
  site_id        date       depth   obs  pred source            
  <chr>          <date>     <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <chr>             
1 nhdhr_74926427 2013-07-15  7.62  5.78  24.1 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E16
2 nhdhr_74926427 2013-07-15 10.7   4.39  24.0 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E16
3 nhdhr_74926427 2013-07-15 13.7   3.83  23.9 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E16
4 nhdhr_74926427 2013-07-15 16.8   3.83  23.8 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E16
5 nhdhr_74926427 2013-07-15 19.8   3.83  23.8 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E16
6 nhdhr_74926427 2013-07-15 22.9   3.83  23.7 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E16
7 nhdhr_74926427 2013-07-15 24.4   3.83  23.7 wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E16

This is Lake Chippewa in Sawyer, WI

read_csv('out_data/lake_metadata.csv') %>% filter(site_id == 'nhdhr_74926427')
# A tibble: 1 x 9
  site_id        lake_name     group_id                     meteo_filename                                    centroid_lon centroid_lat   SDF state county
  <chr>          <chr>         <chr>                        <chr>                                                    <dbl>        <dbl> <dbl> <chr> <chr> 
1 nhdhr_74926427 Lake Chippewa 06_N45.50-46.50_W84.50-92.00 nldas_meteo_N45.9375-45.9375_W91.1875-91.1875.csv        -91.2         45.9  16.2 WI    Sawyer

and it is a complex lake:

The second worst source is wqp_LCOWIS_WQX-E-16 which is probably the same monitoring ID. It is definitely in the same lake.

Modeled (red) and observed (black) are very different

The pb0 model thinks this is a well-mixed lake (at least up to 25 m deep) while the obs are a strongly stratified system that looks more like a small lake to me. Perhaps this is a bay.

Other sources seem clearly wrong, like 7a_temp_coop_munge/tmp/Greenwood_DO_2018_09_14_All.rds, which looks like the depths are flipped 👀

@limnoliver heads up on that one ☝️ but note we haven't done any kind of comprehensive look.

[jordansread]

Looks like at least
7a_temp_coop_munge/tmp/South_Center_DO_2018_09_11_All.rds, 7a_temp_coop_munge/tmp/Carlos_DO_2018_11_05_All.rds, and 7a_temp_coop_munge/tmp/Greenwood_DO_2018_09_14_All.rds have depths flipped

[limnoliver]

Yikes! The explainer file for South_Center says:

Note that the depth of the sample is in negative.

And that was interpreted (by me) as simply needing to multiply by -1. And, turns out, I processed South Center, Carlos, and Greewood with the same parser, and did the same thing, since all had negative depth vals. So, more likely, this is distance from bottom, where 0 is bottom, and ~-28m is surface? In that case, I'm guessing we will lose these data because we can't be certain on depth? OR, we assume the first measure is taken at 0m?

[jordansread]

Perhaps looping in w/ Holly related to these files and #173 would be good. Doesn't help us for this immediate issue, but probably good to get on the radar.