How to anticipate the correct release branch name?

[jdimeo]

If we're using semver for branch names, how do you know exactly if your work for that release will be patch vs. minor vs. major? For example, I might be planning on 1.0.5 but then due to shifting priorities or an angry customer, we squeeze in an API contract change and it needs to become 1.1.0.

I suppose the answer is you just start a 1.1.0 branch and merge the dead branch in, but I'm wondering if that creates more noise in real world applications of this branching model.