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UK proposed corporate tax reform results #52

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nikhilwoodruff opened this issue Jul 27, 2022 · 0 comments
Open

UK proposed corporate tax reform results #52

nikhilwoodruff opened this issue Jul 27, 2022 · 0 comments
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@nikhilwoodruff
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nikhilwoodruff commented Jul 27, 2022

One of the proposals from a few of the leadership candidates earlier this month was to set the UK corporate income tax rate at 15% (it's currently 19% and set to rise to 25% in 2023).

I just tried running this through OG-UK and got the following result (percent formatted).

Variable 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2022-2031 SS
GDP ($Y_t$) +0.07% +0.13% +0.15% +0.16% +0.20% +0.12% +0.11% +0.09% +0.08% +0.07% +0.12% +0.27%
Consumption ($C_t$) -0.04% -0.92% -0.20% -0.02% +0.06% +0.13% +0.16% +0.17% +0.18% +0.19% -0.03% +0.47%
Capital Stock ($K_t$) +0.09% +0.25% +0.46% +0.49% +0.53% +0.55% +0.54% +0.53% +0.51% +0.49% +0.44% +1.20%
Labor ($L_t$) +0.05% +0.07% -0.01% -0.01% +0.02% -0.12% -0.13% -0.14% -0.15% -0.16% -0.06% -0.23%
Real interest rate ($r_t$) +0.98% +2.37% +1.98% +1.93% +1.92% +1.72% +1.70% +1.70% +1.71% +1.72% +1.77% +0.76%
Wage rate +0.01% +0.06% +0.16% +0.18% +0.18% +0.23% +0.24% +0.24% +0.23% +0.23% +0.18% +0.50%

For a ten-point rate cut, these results seem small. I'm definitely reading them right as already percentages right? It could also be the fact that we're still using the linear tax fit.

cc @jdebacker @rickecon @MaxGhenis

@nikhilwoodruff nikhilwoodruff added the help wanted Extra attention is needed label Jul 27, 2022
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