What changed in our cliff computations since February 2023?

[MaxGhenis]

Since we introduced cliff prevalence metrics in February, our estimated cliff prevalence has fallen, both under current law and reforms we documented then. Why?

Some of this is a bug, like 2022 not showing any impacts #3543. But that aside, we have some surprises like estimating that repealing SNAP EAs slightly increases the cliff rate in 2023.

I wonder if #3538 is not yet fully resolved.

Scenario	Year	Cliff Rate (Feb)	Cliff Rate (Dec)	Cliff Gap, $B (Feb)	Cliff Rate, $B (Dec)
Baseline	2022	1.7%	-	18.5	-
Baseline	2023	0.5%	0.3%	5.0	1.5
Baseline	2024	-	0.2%	-	1.1
Raise SSI Earned Income Exclusion to 75%	0.5%	0.3%	5.0	1.4
Repeal SNAP EAs	2022	0.2%	-	1.1	-
Repeal SNAP EAs	2023	0.3%	0.4%	4.3	1.2