bsvars_PSEunimelb.tex

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% Plan
% 1. Bridge the gap
% + objectives and incentives: academia vs. governance institutions
% 
%2. Package features presentation
%+ feature listings
%+ workflows
%+ plots
%+ back to the mismatch
%
%3. Roadmap:
% + bsvars
% + other packages
% + training & development
 


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\begin{document}
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			\textbf{\Huge\color{whi}Structural and Predictive}\\[1.3ex]
			\textbf{\Huge\color{whi}Monetary Policy Analyses}\\[1.3ex] 
			\textbf{\Huge\color{whi}Using the R packages bsvars.org}\\[20ex]
			
			\Large
			{\color{whi}Tomasz Wo\'zniak $\bullet$ University of Melbourne}
			
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	}
	
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			\centering
			
			\textbf{\LARGE\color{whi}R packages for Bayesian\\ Structural Vector Autoregressions}\\
			\includegraphics[trim=0cm 0cm 0cm 2cm, clip, scale=0.25]{hex}
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			\textbf{{\color{whi}a case for software packages}}
			
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	\begin{frame}{\huge objectives and incentives}
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		\begin{columns}
        		\begin{column}{0.5\textwidth}
				\textbf{\Large academia}\\[1ex]
				\large
				\begin{itemize}[label=$\blacktriangleright$]
				{\color{lig}
					\item marginal contributions\\[1ex]
					\item performance excellence\\[1ex]
					\item focus on detail\\[1ex]
					\item one-point case\\[1ex]
					\item result reproducibility
				}	
				\end{itemize}
			\end{column}
			\begin{column}{0.5\textwidth}
				\textbf{\Large governance institutions}\\[1ex]
				\large
				\begin{itemize}[label=$\blacktriangleright$]
				{\color{lig}
					\item decision-making support\\[1ex]
					\item application/data driven\\ [1ex]
					\item reporting \& communication\\[1ex]
					\item broad interpretability\\[1ex]
					\item accountability
				}	
				\end{itemize}
			\end{column}
		\end{columns}
	\end{frame}
	
	
	
	
	\begin{frame}{\huge mutual benefits}
		\Large		
		\begin{itemize}[label=$\blacktriangleright$]
		{\color{lig}
			\item knowledge \& experience exchange\\[1ex]
			\item strategic synergies \\[1ex]
			\item relevance\\[1ex]
			\item publishable outputs\\[1ex]
			\item research dissemination
		}	
		\end{itemize}
	\end{frame}

	
	
	\begin{frame}{\huge a case for software packages}
		\Large
		
		\begin{itemize}[label=$\blacktriangleright$]
		{\color{lig}
			\item potential for bridging the mismatch\\[1ex]
			\item joint development benefiting from specialisations\\[1ex]
			\item respectful of parties' objectives and needs \\[1ex]
			\item strategically planned development and rollout
		}	
		\end{itemize}
	\end{frame}

	
	
	
	
	
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			\vspace{1cm}\Huge
			\textbf{{\color{whi}bsvars.org features}}
			
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	\begin{frame}{\huge bsvars.org features}
		\Large
		
		\includegraphics[scale=0.28]{bsvars_cran}
		\includegraphics[scale=0.28]{bsvarSIGNs_cran}
		
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	\begin{frame}{\huge bsvars.org features}
		\Large
		
		\begin{itemize}[label=$\blacktriangleright$]
		{\color{lig}
			\item Bayesian estimation of Structural VARs\\[1ex]
			\item coherent code structure, workflows, and objects\\[1ex]
			\item  excellent computational speed\\[1ex]
			\item  frontier econometric \& numerical techniques\\[1ex]
			\item  written in \textbf{C++} using \textbf{Rcpp} and \textbf{RcppArmadillo}\\[1ex]
			\item data analysis in \textbf{R}
		}	
		\end{itemize}
	\end{frame}



	\begin{frame}{\huge bsvars.org features}
		\Large
		\textbf{Structural Vector Autoregressions}
		\begin{align*}
		\text{VAR eq.:}&& \mathbf{y}_t &= \mathbf{Ax}_t + \boldsymbol\epsilon_t\\[1ex]
		\text{structural eq.:}&& \mathbf{B}_0\boldsymbol\epsilon_t &= \mathbf{u}_t \\[1ex]
		\text{structural shocks:}&& \mathbf{u}_t &\sim\mathcal{N}(\mathbf{0}, \text{diag}\left(\boldsymbol\sigma^2_t\right) ) \\
		\end{align*}
		
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	\begin{frame}{\huge bsvars.org features}
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        		\begin{column}{0.5\textwidth}
				\includegraphics[scale=0.35]{bsvars}\\[1ex]

				\large
				\begin{itemize}[label=$\blacktriangleright$]
				{\color{lig}
					\item based on own research\\ [1ex]
					\item exclusion restrictions\\[1ex]
					\item heteroskedasticity, and\\[1ex]
					\item non-normality\\[1ex]
					\item 5 volatility \& 3 non-normal models\\[1ex]
					\item Priors: 3-level eq-specific local-global shrinkage
				}	
				\end{itemize}
			\end{column}
			\begin{column}{0.5\textwidth}
				\includegraphics[scale=0.35]{bsvarSIGNs}\\[1ex]
				
				\large
				\begin{itemize}[label=$\blacktriangleright$]
				{\color{lig}
					\item based on top-field papers\\ [1ex]
					\item sign restrictions\\ [1ex]
					\item sign \& zero restrictions\\[1ex]
					\item narrative restrictions\\[1ex]
					\item flexible Bayesian VAR\\[1ex]
					\item Priors: Minnesota with dummy observations and estimated shrinkage
				}	
				\end{itemize}
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		\end{columns}
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	\begin{frame}{\huge bsvars.org features}
		\centering
		\includegraphics[scale=0.25]{bs_irf}
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	\begin{frame}{\huge bsvars.org features}
		\centering
		\includegraphics[scale=0.25]{bs_fevd}
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	\begin{frame}{\huge bsvars.org features}
		\centering
		\includegraphics[scale=0.25]{bs_fit}
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	\begin{frame}{\huge bsvars.org features}
		\centering
		\includegraphics[scale=0.25]{bs_ss}
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	\begin{frame}{\huge bsvars.org features}
		\centering
		\includegraphics[scale=0.25]{bs_sds}
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	\begin{frame}{\huge bsvars.org features}
		\centering
		\includegraphics[scale=0.5]{bs_fore}
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	\begin{frame}{\huge bsvars.org roadmap}
		\Large
		
		\begin{itemize}[label=$\blacktriangleright$]
		{\color{lig}
			\item R package \textbf{bvarPANELs}\\[0.5ex]
			Forecasting with Bayesian Hierarchical Panel VARs\\[1ex]
			\item R package \textbf{bsvarTVPs} \\[0.5ex]
			Bayesian SVARs with Time-Varying Identification\\[1ex]
			\item R package \textbf{bsvarCFs}\\[0.5ex]
			Conditional Forecasting for Bayesian Structural VARs
		}	
		\end{itemize}
	\end{frame}


	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
		
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