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Add nuclear #3

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brynpickering opened this issue Jan 20, 2021 · 3 comments
Open

Add nuclear #3

brynpickering opened this issue Jan 20, 2021 · 3 comments

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@brynpickering
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Some countries still plan on having nuclear power up to 2050 (namely FR, CZ, and UK), which should be put in as a fixed capacity to meet electricity demand (with a small modulation capability). The exact 2050 quantity depends on the data source. Based on current lit review:

Country 2017 capacity 2017 source 2050 capacity (GW) 2050 source Comments EUTIMES values
ALB: Albania 0 0?
All 101 https://www.statista.com/statistics/263993/generation-capacity-of-nuclear-power-worldwide-by-2030/ OECD Europe
All 111 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 34 - 73 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
AUT: Austria 0 0 0
BEL: Belgium 5.918 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 0 http://www.iaea.org/inis/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/48/058/48058392.pdf?r=1 0
BGR: Bulgaria 1.926 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 3.2? https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/bulgaria.aspx 3.18
BIH: Bosnia and Herzegovina 0 0
CHE: Switzerland 3.333 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_energy_policy_by_country Need to improve source 0
CYP: Cyprus 0 0
CZE: Czechia 3.930 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 6.23-7.86 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/ec_courtesy_translation_cz_necp_0.pdf Based on increase in the share of electricity generation coming from nuclear by 2040 3.42
DEU: Germany 9.515 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_energy_policy_by_country Need to improve source 0
DNK: Denmark 0 0
ESP: Spain 7.121 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 0 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/es_swd_en.pdf 0
EST: Estonia 0 0 0
FIN: Finland 2.769 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf >0? https://tem.fi/documents/1410877/2769658/Government+report+on+the+National+Energy+and+Climate+Strategy+for+2030/0bb2a7be-d3c2-4149-a4c2-78449ceb1976/Government+report+on+the+National+Energy+and+Climate+Strategy+for+2030.pdf 4.7?
FIN: Finland 2.769 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 2.75? https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/finland.aspx
FRA: France 63.130 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 22 - 58.6 https://www.ademe.fr/sites/default/files/assets/documents/ademe-energy-transition-scenarios-2030-2050-english-french-7942.pdf Depends on which scenario the country takes.
Based on expected production of electricity from nuclear * CF of all current french nuclear plants in 2018 (https://cnpp.iaea.org/countryprofiles/France/France_tables.htm) 3.26
GBR: United Kingdom 8.918 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 8.9 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/789655/Nuclear_electricity_in_the_UK.pdf 17.04
GRC: Greece 0 0 0
HRV: Croatia 0 0 0
HUN: Hungary 1.889 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_energy_policy_by_country Need to improve source 2.79
HUN: Hungary 1.889 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 1.2 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/ec_courtesy_translation_hu_necp.pdf "Pursuant to the intergovernmental agreement between Hungary and the Russian Federation, two new nuclear power plant units will be built in Hungary by 2030, each with a capacity of 1200MW (Paks 2)."
IRL: Republic of Ireland 0 0 0
ITA: Italy 0 0 6.6
LTU: Lithuania 0 0 1.35
LUX: Luxumbourg 0 0 0
LVA: Latvia 0 0 0
MKD: North Macedonia 0 0 0
MNE: Montenegro 0 0 0
NLD: Netherlands 0.482 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 0 https://www.government.nl/topics/renewable-energy/documents/reports/2016/04/28/energy-report-transition-tot-sustainable-energy "Under the current market conditions, there is no demand for a new nuclear power plant, however the cabinet does not rule out new nuclear technologies being deployed in the future, as long as they are safe." 1.2
NOR: Norway 0 0 0
POL: Poland 0 0 6
PRT: Portugal 0 0 0
ROU: Romania 1.300 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 0.65 - 2.65 http://www.enpg.ro/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/NECP-Romania-EPG-Analysis.pdf 4 CANDU reactors, 650MW each, with 4th going online in 2031. Depends on when the other 3 go online (i.e. are they decommissioned by 2050?) 0.72
SRB: Serbia 0 0 0
SVK: Slovakia 1.814 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 0.94-3.34 https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-o-s/slovakia.aspx Depends on if 2.4 GW of planned capacity is realised 1.59
SVN: Slovenia 0.688 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf ? Very ambiguous as to whether any nuclear is on the agenda 1.6
SWE: Sweden 8.629 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf 0? https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/sweden_draftnecp.pdf 2040 100% renewables target, although it specifically states that it isn't a deadline for banning nuclear 0
SWE: Sweden 8.629 https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-38_web.pdf ? http://www.iaea.org/inis/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/48/058/48058392.pdf?r=1 "in June 2016, the Swedish parliament announced an agreement to phase out over two years a tax on installed nuclear capacity and to allow the construction of up to ten nuclear reactors to replace existing plants. The agreement was described as supporting Sweden’s goal to have a 100% renewable electricity system by 2040 but without requiring nuclear phase-out by that date"
@brynpickering
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brynpickering commented Jan 25, 2021

Since there are a few countries with capacity ranges, I plan to allow construction of capacity in those ranges with costs from this DIW report. Which would be:

investment: 4500 USD2018/kW (similar to the European mean collated in this study and the value used for 2040 from the IEA's world energy model)
annual O&M: 93,280 USD2018/MW/year
om_prod(?): 2.14 USD2018/MWh
om_con: 10.11 USD2018/MWh
capacity factor: 0.85 (0.75 in IEA's world energy model)
lifetime: 40 years (60 years according to Barkatullah and Ahmad)

The IEA's world energy model gives a 2040 fuel + O&M cost of 35 USD2017/MWh. Distributing the annual O&M to MWh based on a capacity factor of 0.75, and the fuel cost to produced electricity (40% energy_eff) would lead to the DIW fuel + O&M being ~41 USD2018/MWh, which is a 17% higher than used by the IEA for 2040, but is in line with that given in the IEA projected cost of generating electricity 2020. The projected costs give annual O&M of 85,000, om_prod of 1.5 and om_con of 10.33, giving 40 USD(2019?)/MWh, assuming a 0.75 capacity factor and 40% energy_eff.

The 17% difference between the WEM and other sources doesn't seem to be related to the reference year, since the WEM also uses this lower price in 2019. The DIW report refers to Barkatullah and Ahmad for its O&M and fuel costs; the latter does not cite any sources for the cost assumptions used. However, given a lack of alternative sources, and the similarity between total costs from Barkatullah & Ahmad and IEA projected cost of generating electricity 2020, I plan to use this data, amounting to (assuming 1USD2018->0.85EUR2018 and 1EUR2018->0.96EUR2015):

energy_cap: 3,672 EUR2015/kW
annual O&M: 76,116 EUR2015/MW/year
om_prod(?): 1.75 EUR2015/MWh
om_con: 8.25 EUR2015/MWh
capacity factor: 0.75-0.85 (set as a constraint)
lifetime: 50 years

@brynpickering
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brynpickering commented Jan 25, 2021

BEIS gives another source of costs for the 2025 model year:

energy_cap: 3700-5100 GBP/kW
annual O&M: 72,900 GBP/MW/year + 10,000 GBP/MW/year (insurance)
om_prod: 5 GBP/MWh (no indication of whether it includes fuel)
capacity factor: 0.9
lifetime: 60 years

These are higher than the costs I intend on using.

@brynpickering
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Following discussion in calliope-project/euro-calliope#226, the fuel prices will be updated to relate to electricity output (om_prod), not input (om_con).

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