decision-maker.md

Decision maker

tool for making decision in cumbersome cases - when you have a lot of uncertainties/emotions ( or/and a lot of people )

collect all factors that make (even potentially ) influence on your decision

during this "mind storm" think about:

• risks
• opportunities
• what you want to achieve directly ( goals ), indirectly ?
• what you will obtain after the achievement ?
• who also will be affected ?
• ...

  item
  item A
  item B
  item C
  item D
  item E
  item F
  item G
  item H
  item I
  item J
  item K
  item L

probability

1. Create second list with all the items from previous step.

2. Sort them out from high probability ( on top ) to less probability ( on bottom ).

   item
   item A
   item B
   item G
   item K
   item H
   item J
   item E
   item I
   item C
   item F
   item D
   item L

3. Detect "waterline" for the probability - rid off items below it, what is not gonna happen from your point of view.

   item
   item A
   item B
   item G
   item K
   item H
   -w--w--w-
   item J
   item E
   item I
   item C
   item F
   item D
   item L

4. Set likelihood [0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1] where 1 - will be for sure and 0.25 - low possibility.

   item	likelihood
   item A	1
   item B	1
   item G	0.5
   item K	0.5
   item H	0.25

importancy

1. Take list from previous step and sort them out from most influenced to less influenced items ( what will affect your decision ).

2. Detect equal item from influence on decision point of view.

   item	diff
   item B
   item A
   item G	x
   item H	x
   item K

3. Next, just image that you have possibility to set between elements diff-value as [1,2,3]

   item	diff
   item B	3
   item A	1
   item G	2
   item H	2
   item K

4. Try to detect elements, where 3 is not enough, mark all of them.

   item	diff
   item B	3 x
   item A	1
   item G	2
   item H	2
   item K

5. Read all marked elements again and try to evaluate one maximal biase between previous element and marked element.

   item	diff
   item B	5
   item A	1
   item G	2
   item H	2
   item K

6. Set proper value for your maximal marked element and set corresponding values agains rest of marked elements.

7. For each item calculate importancy to summarize all previous values, start from 1

   item	diff	influence
   item B	5	9
   item A	1	4
   item G	2	3
   item H	2	3
   item K		1

calculate factor

1. multiply influence on likelihood for all the elements

   item	factor
   item B	9*1
   item A	4*1
   item G	3*0.5
   item H	3*0.5
   item K	1*0.25

2. sort them out according to factor value

   item	factor
   item B	9
   item A	4
   item G	1.5
   item H	1.5
   item K	0.25

positive/negative

1. for each of the item detect influence on the process

   positive	neutral	negative
   +	%	-

2. and set for each item

   item	factor
   item B	+9
   item A	-4
   item G	%1.5
   item H	%1.5
   item K	+0.25

evaluation

evaluate each of your options with set of item from previous list and calculate factor YES: B, G, H, K = 6.25 ( winner ) NO: A, G, H = -4