Project#1 - compare future population projection with the one from ISTAT

[danieleongari]

ISTAT, in Sept 2022 made a projection of future Italian resident population:

https://www.istat.it/it/files/2022/09/Households-and-population-projections-base2021.pdf

In a glance, my baseline scenario is very close to their "worse" scenario: I need to understand better the difference in assumptions, but from a first quick read, they assume that the future fertility rate (declining in the last 10 years) will likely increase again as a baseline scenario (why?) while I assumed that is staying roughly the same (which is still optimistic, because it could follow the trend and decline more!).