Analysis code for comparison of expert and computational forecasts of Ebola transmission in North Kivu 2019/2020
This repo contains the analysis code for the paper "Predicting ongoing transmission and flare-ups in a declining Ebola epidemic: Understanding the relative performance of experts and mathematical models". The breakdown of the codebase is as follows:
The preperation of data from the expert forecasts is found in a seperate repository: https://github.com/epiforecasts/Expert-elicitation
Computational forecasts were made using the EpiCastR package: https://github.com/epiforecasts/EpiCastR
All code for evaluating the forecasts can be found in this repository.
The code for making the computational forecasts is found in run_forecasts_ee.R
The analysis is broken into two components:
- Analysis of Healthzones included in the survey
- Analysis of Healthzones nominated by the experts
Cleaning, combination and scoring of the forecasts made in each of these components are found in:
clean_data_surveyed.R
and
clean_data_nominated.R
respectively.
The presentation of scores and ranking based on performance is executed in:
score_and_rank_combinations_surveyed.R
and
score_and_rank_combinations_nominated.R
respectively.
The calculation of hazard rate gap is executed in calculate_hazard_rates_surveyed.R