PointProcessSSGLM-development.lyx~

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\begin_body

\begin_layout Section
Development of the point-process filtering and SS-GLM
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsection
The CIF (rate function)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We examine the spike trains that a neuron elicits in all the trials in the
 experiment and built a raster plot.
 In a steady state, we could simply average in each time bin and get a PSTH.
 When learning occurs this is impossible.
 Instead we define a rate function (single trial 
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset

PSTH
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset

) for trial #k and time bin #l of size
\begin_inset Formula $\Delta$
\end_inset

:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\lambda_{k}\left(l|\theta_{k},\gamma,H_{k}\right)=\exp\left\{ \sum_{r=1}^{R}\theta_{k,r}g_{,r}\left(l\right)\right\} \exp\left\{ \sum_{j=1}^{l}\gamma_{j}n_{k,l-j}\right\} 
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Where:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}$
\end_inset

 is a vector of the 
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset

PSTH
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset

 in trial #k
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $g_{r}\left(l\right)=\begin{cases}
\begin{array}{c}
1\\
0
\end{array} & \begin{array}{c}
\left(r-1\right)\cdot\frac{T}{R}<l\le r\cdot\frac{T}{R}\\
otherwise
\end{array}\end{cases}$
\end_inset

, 
\begin_inset Formula $T$
\end_inset

 being the numner of bins in each trial (each bin of duration 
\begin_inset Formula $\Delta$
\end_inset

 typically 1mSec) and 
\begin_inset Formula $R$
\end_inset

 being the number of PSTH bins.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $\gamma$
\end_inset

 is a vector of the self - history dependence
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $H_{k}$
\end_inset

 is the history (of spiking) and in our case it is the binary vector 
\begin_inset Formula $n_{k}$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsection
The log-likelihood function
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The probability of observing 
\begin_inset Formula $n_{k}$
\end_inset

 spikes in trial #k and time bin #l is simply 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(N_{k}\left(l\right)=n_{k}\left(l\right)\right)=\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot\Delta\right)^{n_{k}\left(l\right)}\cdot\left(1-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot\Delta\right)^{1-n_{k}\left(l\right)}\approx\frac{\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right)^{n_{k}\left(l\right)}\cdot\exp\left(-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right)}{n_{k}\left(l\right)!}$
\end_inset

.
 The Poisson approximation is valid for 
\begin_inset Formula $n_{k}=0,1$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $\lambda\Delta\ll1$
\end_inset

.
 Thus, the log-likelihood of a single time bin is:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
\log p\left(N_{k}\left(l\right)=n_{k}\left(l\right)\right)=-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta+n_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right)
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We assume that the trial by trial evolution of the PSTH parameters follow
 a gaussian distribution.
 Namely, 
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
p\left(\theta_{k+1}|\theta_{k}\right)\sim\mathbb{N}\left(0,\Sigma\right)
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
At this point the mean is zero and we still didn't take stimulus features
 into account.
 A non-zero mean will be added in section 7 as a result of a fitted learning
 algorithm.
 Stimulus features are added in section 6.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
If we assign the symbol 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{0}$
\end_inset

 to the initial value of 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta$
\end_inset

 we can get the log-likelihood function of the observed spikes (
\begin_inset Formula $\left\{ N_{k}\right\} _{k=1}^{K}$
\end_inset

) and the hidden process 
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(
\begin_inset Formula $\left\{ \theta_{k}\right\} _{k=1}^{K}$
\end_inset

)
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\color inherit
 as a sum over all time bins in all trials:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
L=\log p\left(\left\{ N_{k}\right\} _{k=1}^{K},\left\{ \theta_{k}\right\} _{k=1}^{K}|\psi\right)=\log\sum_{k=1}^{K}p\left(\mathbf{n_{k}}|\theta_{k},H_{k}\right)\cdot p\left(\theta_{k}|\theta_{k-1}\right)=
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
=\sum_{k=1}^{K}\sum_{l=1}^{T}\left[-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta+n_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right)\right]+K\cdot\log\left(\left(2\pi\right)^{-\frac{R}{2}}\cdot\left|\Sigma\right|^{-\frac{1}{2}}\right)-\frac{1}{2}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)^{T}\Sigma^{-1}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Our log-likelihood function is 
\begin_inset Formula $F\left(\psi\right)=\log\int d^{K}\theta e^{L}$
\end_inset

.
 
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The parameters of the likelihood function are 
\begin_inset Formula $\psi=\left(\gamma,\theta_{0},\Sigma\right)$
\end_inset

 and maximizing the likelihood can be done in the gradient ascent / simulated
 annealing methods.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
In our optimizations we will assume 
\begin_inset Formula $\Sigma$
\end_inset

 to be diagonal (block diagonal after introducing the features) and next
 we introduce the EM algorithm for likelihood maximization.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsection
The EM algorithm (introduction)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
Formulation
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We're looking for the set of parameters, 
\begin_inset Formula $\psi^{*}$
\end_inset

 that maximizes 
\begin_inset Formula $F\left(\psi\right)=\log\int p\left(\left\{ N_{k}\right\} _{k=1}^{K},\left\{ \theta_{k}\right\} _{k=1}^{K}|\psi\right)d^{K}\theta$
\end_inset

.
 Assume the existance of an auxillary function 
\begin_inset Formula $Q\left(\psi,\psi'\right)$
\end_inset

 that satisfies the following:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Itemize
\begin_inset Formula $Q\left(\psi,\psi'\right)\le F\left(\psi\right)\forall\psi'$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Itemize
\begin_inset Formula $F\left(\psi\right)=Q\left(\psi,\psi\right)$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
This means that we can define an iterative process that maximizes the log-likeli
hood (locally).
 At step 'i' we define 
\begin_inset Formula $\psi^{\left(i+1\right)}=\arg\max_{\psi}Q\left(\psi,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)$
\end_inset

.
 This choice means that
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
F\left(\psi^{\left(i+1\right)}\right)=Q\left(\psi^{\left(i+1\right)},\psi^{\left(i+1\right)}\right)\ge Q\left(\psi^{\left(i+1\right)},\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)\ge Q\left(\psi^{\left(i\right)},\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)=F\left(\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
This form suggest a two stage iterative algorithm.
 It is named EM-algorithm (the 'expectation' nature of the first step will
 become clear later in this section) and at step 'i' it goes as:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Itemize
E-Step: Calculate 
\begin_inset Formula $Q\left(\psi,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Itemize
M-Step: find 
\begin_inset Formula $\psi^{\left(i+1\right)}$
\end_inset

 by maximizing 
\begin_inset Formula $\psi^{\left(i+1\right)}=\arg\max_{\psi}Q\left(\psi,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Using the notation of 
\begin_inset Formula $N,\theta$
\end_inset

 to describe the observable and latent variables we find 
\begin_inset Formula $Q$
\end_inset

 in the following way:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
F\left(\psi\right)\overset{1}{=}F\left(\psi'\right)+\log\frac{p\left(N|\psi\right)}{p\left(N|\psi'\right)}\overset{2}{=}F\left(\psi'\right)+\log\int p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)\frac{p\left(\theta|N,\psi\right)}{p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)}\cdot\frac{p\left(N|\psi\right)}{p\left(N|\psi'\right)}d^{K}\theta
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
\overset{3}{=}F\left(\psi'\right)+\log\int p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)\frac{p\left(N,\theta|\psi\right)}{p\left(N,\theta|\psi'\right)}d^{K}\theta\overset{4}{\ge}F\left(\psi'\right)+\int p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)\log\frac{p\left(N,\theta|\psi\right)}{p\left(N,\theta|\psi'\right)}d^{K}\theta
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
\equiv Q\left(\psi,\psi'\right)
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Where:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Enumerate
From the definition of 
\begin_inset Formula $F\left(\psi\right)=\log p\left(\left\{ N_{k}\right\} _{k=1}^{K}|\psi\right)$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Enumerate
Because 
\begin_inset Formula $\int p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)\frac{p\left(\theta|N,\psi\right)}{p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)}d^{K}\theta=1$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Enumerate
From Bayes' law 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(\theta|N,\psi\right)\cdot p\left(N|\psi\right)=p\left(N,\theta|\psi\right)$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Enumerate
From Jensen's inequality: 
\begin_inset Formula $\log\int\ge\int\log$
\end_inset

 in concave functions
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Note that 
\begin_inset Formula $Q\left(\psi,\psi'\right)=F\left(\psi'\right)-\frac{1}{p\left(N|\psi'\right)}D_{KL}\left[p\left(N,\theta|\psi'\right)||p\left(N,\theta|\psi\right)\right]$
\end_inset

 which means that the requirements above are met.
 In applying the E-step it is enough to reduce the auxillary function to
 
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
Q\left(\psi,\psi'\right)=\int p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)\log p\left(N,\theta|\psi\right)d^{K}\theta=E_{p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)}L
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Because the M-step requires optimization over 
\begin_inset Formula $\psi$
\end_inset

 and not 
\begin_inset Formula $\psi'$
\end_inset

.
 Now this is in the form of an expected value ...Hence the 'E-Step'.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
Remarks
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Note two important points:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Enumerate
We never actually compute the log-likelihood 
\begin_inset Formula $F\left(\psi\right)$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Enumerate
We get the divergence 'for free' because: 
\begin_inset Formula $\nabla_{\psi}\log p\left(N|\psi\right)|_{\psi=\psi'}=\nabla_{\psi}\log\int p\left(N,\theta|\psi\right)d^{K}\theta|_{\psi=\psi'}=\frac{1}{p\left(N|\psi'\right)}\cdot\nabla_{\psi}\int p\left(N,\theta|\psi\right)d^{K}\theta|_{\psi=\psi'}=\int\frac{p\left(N,\theta|\psi'\right)}{p\left(N|\psi'\right)}\cdot\nabla_{\psi}\log p\left(N,\theta|\psi\right)d^{K}\theta|_{\psi=\psi'}=\nabla_{\psi}Q\left(\psi,\psi'\right)|_{\psi=\psi'}$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsection
E-Step - i'th iteration
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Here we need to compute the expectation of 
\begin_inset Formula $L$
\end_inset

 (eqn #) over the distribution 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)$
\end_inset

.
 This calculation boils down to computing the following constituents:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Enumerate
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k|K}\equiv\int p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)\cdot\theta_{k}d^{K}\theta$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Enumerate
\begin_inset Formula $W_{k,k+1|K}\equiv\int p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)\cdot\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|K}\right)\cdot\left(\theta_{k+1}-\theta_{k+1|K}\right)d^{K}\theta$
\end_inset

 which is the covariance of 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k},\theta_{k+1}$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Enumerate

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\begin_inset Formula $\int p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)\cdot\theta_{k}^{2}d^{K}\theta$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Enumerate

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\color none
\begin_inset Formula $\int p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)\cdot\exp\left(\theta_{k}\right)d^{K}\theta$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The whole point here is going to be that we assume the distribution of 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{0}$
\end_inset

 to be Gaussian (or a 
\begin_inset Formula $\delta$
\end_inset

 function) and that all posterior distributions (
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(\theta_{k}|...\right)$
\end_inset

) are also Gaussian.
 This will allow developing a filtering algorithm.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
This is done by several algorithms:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
Forward filter algorithm (Kalman++ Eden et al 2004)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Define the following mean values and covariance matrices:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Enumerate
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k|k-1}=E\left[\theta_{k}|N_{1:k-1},\psi^{(i)}\right]$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Enumerate
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k|k}=E\left[\theta_{k}|N_{1:k},\psi^{(i)}\right]$
\end_inset

 includes the spiking activity in the k'th trial
\end_layout

\begin_layout Enumerate
\begin_inset Formula $W_{k|k-1}=Var\left[\theta_{k}|N_{1:k-1},\psi^{(i)}\right]$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Enumerate

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\begin_inset Formula $W_{k|k}=Var\left[\theta_{k}|N_{1:k},\psi^{(i)}\right]$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
This algorithm starts from the initial values 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{1|0}=\theta_{0}$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $W_{0|0}=0$
\end_inset

 and iterates forward the following steps:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
One step prediction:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
From the identity 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(\theta_{k}|N_{1:k-1},\psi^{(i)}\right)=\int p\left(\theta_{k}|\theta_{k-1},\psi^{(i)}\right)p\left(\theta_{k-1}|N_{1:k-1},\psi^{(i)}\right)d\theta_{k-1}$
\end_inset

 we assume all densities to be Gaussian; 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(\theta_{k}|N_{1:k-1},\psi^{(i)}\right)\sim N\left(\theta_{k|k-1},W_{k|k-1}\right)$
\end_inset

, 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(\theta_{k-1}|N_{1:k-1},\psi^{(i)}\right)\sim N\left(\theta_{k-1|k-1},W_{k-1|k-1}\right)$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(\theta_{k}|\theta_{k-1},\psi^{(i)}\right)\sim N\left(\theta_{k-1},\Sigma\right)$
\end_inset

.
 The convolution of two gaussians is also a gaussian (Appendix) so we immediatel
y get the relation:
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\theta_{k|k-1}=\theta_{k-1|k-1},W_{k|k-1}=W_{k-1|k-1}+\Sigma
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Next, we incorporate the observed spikes in the k'th trial.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
The posterior distribution:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We use Bayes law to incorporate the observed spikes in the k'th trial: 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(\theta_{k}|N_{1:k},\psi^{(i)}\right)\overset{1}{=}\frac{p\left(N_{1:k}|\theta_{k},\psi^{(i)}\right)\cdot p\left(\theta_{k}|\psi^{(i)}\right)}{p\left(N_{1:k}\right)}\overset{2}{=}\frac{p\left(N_{k}|\theta_{k},\psi^{(i)}\right)\cdot p\left(N_{1:k-1}|\theta_{k},\psi^{(i)}\right)\cdot p\left(\theta_{k}|\psi^{(i)}\right)}{p\left(N_{k}|N_{1:k-1}\right)\cdot p\left(N_{1:k-1}\right)}$
\end_inset


\begin_inset Formula $\overset{3}{=}\frac{p\left(N_{k}|\theta_{k},\psi^{(i)}\right)\cdot p\left(N_{1:k-1}\right)\cdot p\left(\theta_{k}|N_{1:k-1},\psi^{(i)}\right)}{p\left(N_{k}|N_{1:k-1}\right)\cdot p\left(N_{1:k-1}\right)}$
\end_inset


\begin_inset Formula $\overset{4}{=}\frac{p\left(N_{k}|\theta_{k},\psi^{(i)}\right)\cdot p\left(\theta_{k}|N_{1:k-1},\psi^{(i)}\right)}{p\left(N_{k}|N_{1:k-l},\psi^{(i)}\right)}\sim N\left(\theta_{k|k},W_{k|k}\right)$
\end_inset

.
 Where (1) and (3) follow Bayes' rule, (2) stems from 
\begin_inset Formula $N_{k}$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $N_{1:k-1}$
\end_inset

 being independent given 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}$
\end_inset

 and (4) is simple algebra.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We are going to take the log of both sides and differentiate with respect
 to 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}$
\end_inset

 so we can ignore the denominator.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We use 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(N_{k}|\theta_{k},\psi^{(i)}\right)=\prod_{l}\exp\left[-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta+n_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right)\right]$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(\theta_{k}|N_{1:k-1},\psi^{(i)}\right)\sim N\left(\theta_{k|k-1},W_{k|k-1}\right)$
\end_inset

 to get
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
-\frac{1}{2}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k}\right)^{T}W_{k|k}^{-1}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k}\right)=\sum_{l=1}^{T}\left[-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta+n_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right)\right]-\frac{1}{2}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k-1}\right)^{T}W_{k|k-1}^{-1}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k-1}\right)+constants
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We now derivate with respect to 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}$
\end_inset

 twice.
 First to get the linear term (the mean) and second to get the variance.
 (remember that 
\begin_inset Formula $W$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $ $
\end_inset


\begin_inset Formula $W^{-1}$
\end_inset

 are symmetric)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
\frac{\partial}{\partial\theta_{k,r}}\rightarrow\left[W_{k|k}^{-1}\cdot\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k}\right)\right]_{r}=\left[W_{k|k-1}^{-1}\cdot\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k-1}\right)\right]_{r}-\sum_{l=1}^{T}\frac{\partial\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\right)}{\partial\theta_{k,r}}\cdot\left[n_{k}\left(l\right)-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right]
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
=\left[W_{k|k-1}^{-1}\cdot\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k-1}\right)\right]_{r}-\sum_{l=\left(r-1\right)\frac{T}{R}}^{r\frac{T}{R}}\left[n_{k}\left(l\right)-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right]
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
This should hold for 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}=\theta_{k|k-1}$
\end_inset

 so we insert it and get
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
-W_{k|k}^{-1}\cdot\left(\theta_{k|k-1}-\theta_{k|k}\right)=\sum_{l=1}^{T}\frac{\partial\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\right)}{\partial\theta}\cdot\left[n_{k}\left(l\right)-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right]|_{\theta=\theta_{k|k-1}}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
which we solve and get:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\theta_{k|k}=\theta_{k|k-1}+W_{k|k}\cdot\sum_{l=1}^{T}\frac{\partial\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\right)}{\partial\theta_{k}}\cdot\left[n_{k}\left(l\right)-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right]=\theta_{k|k-1}+W_{k|k}\cdot\left(\begin{array}{c}
\sum_{l=1}^{\frac{T}{R}}\left(n_{k}\left(l\right)-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot\Delta\right)\\
.\\
.\\
\sum_{l=T\cdot\frac{R-1}{R}+1}^{T}\left(n_{k}\left(l\right)-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot\Delta\right)
\end{array}\right)|_{\theta=\theta_{k|k-1}}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We now differentiate again:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
\frac{\partial}{\partial\theta_{k}}\left\{ W_{k|k}^{-1}\cdot\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k}\right)=W_{k|k-1}^{-1}\cdot\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k-1}\right)-\sum_{l=1}^{T}\frac{\partial\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\right)}{\partial\theta_{k}}\cdot\left[n_{k}\left(l\right)-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right]\right\} 
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
W_{k|k}^{-1}=W_{k|k-1}^{-1}-\sum_{l=1}^{T}\left\{ \frac{\partial^{2}\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\right)}{\partial\theta^{2}}\cdot\left[n_{k}\left(l\right)-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right]-\Delta\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot\frac{\partial\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\right)}{\partial\theta}\cdot\left(\frac{\partial\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\right)}{\partial\theta}\right)^{T}\right\} |_{\theta=\theta_{k|k-1}}
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\left[W_{k|k}^{-1}\right]_{ab}=\left[W_{k|k-1}^{-1}\right]_{ab}+\Delta\cdot\delta_{ab}\sum_{l=\left(a-1\right)\frac{T}{R}+1}^{a\frac{T}{R}}\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot|_{\theta=\theta_{k|k-1}}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
This is the first order (in 
\begin_inset Formula $\Delta$
\end_inset

) correction to the Kalman filter for non-Gaussian observation.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
So, we starts sequentially (in 'k'), from equation # followed by equations
 #,# and calculate 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k|k},W_{k|k}$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
Note:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
There is a point here that is not clear.
 In deriving the last equation (#) we insert 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta=\theta_{k|k-1}$
\end_inset

 but this is arbitrary.
 The correction to 
\begin_inset Formula $W_{k|k}$
\end_inset

 is 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta$
\end_inset

 dependent which seems wrong to me.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
(It will also be the same result if we develop 
\begin_inset Formula $\lambda_{k}$
\end_inset

 around 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k|k-1}$
\end_inset

 ...
 so it's fine)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
Smoothing algorithm (Kalman smoother)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
This is a reverse sequence a.k.a.
 the Kalman smoother (Jazwinski, page 217, equation 7.86, see also in Shumway
 and Stoffer 1982)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
This is developed here for 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k+1}-\theta_{k}\sim N\left(0,\Sigma\right)$
\end_inset

 and assumes that we have 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k|k},W_{k|k}\forall k$
\end_inset

 (from previous stages).
 This algorithm will have to be revisited when introducing learning algorithms
 in section 7.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We start by assuming that 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k|l},\theta_{k+1|l}$
\end_inset

 (
\begin_inset Formula $l>k$
\end_inset

) both maximize the Gaussian joint distribution 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(\theta_{k},\theta_{k+1}|N_{1:l},\psi^{(i)}\right)$
\end_inset

.
 Now,
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
p\left(\theta_{k},\theta_{k+1}|N_{1:l},\psi^{(i)}\right)=\frac{p\left(\theta_{k},\theta_{k+1},N_{1:l}|\psi^{(i)}\right)}{p\left(N_{1:l}\right)}=\frac{p\left(N_{1:k}\right)}{p\left(N_{1:l}\right)}\cdot p\left(\theta_{k},\theta_{k+1},N_{\mathbf{k+1}:l}|N_{1:k},\psi^{(i)}\right)
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
=\frac{p\left(N_{1:k}\right)}{p\left(N_{1:l}\right)}\cdot p\left(N_{k+1:l}|\theta_{k},\theta_{k+1},N_{1:k},\psi^{(i)}\right)\cdot p\left(\theta_{k},\theta_{k+1}|N_{1:k},\psi^{(i)}\right)
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Since the process is assumed Markov (including the observations) we use:
 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(N_{k+1:l}|\theta_{k},\theta_{k+1},N_{1:k},\psi^{(i)}\right)=p\left(N_{k+1:l}|\theta_{k+1},\psi^{(i)}\right)$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(\theta_{k},\theta_{k+1}|N_{1:k},\psi^{(i)}\right)=p\left(\theta_{k+1}|\theta_{k},N_{1:k},\psi^{(i)}\right)\cdot p\left(\theta_{k}|N_{1:k},\psi^{(i)}\right)=p\left(\theta_{k+1}|\theta_{k},\psi^{(i)}\right)\cdot p\left(\theta_{k}|N_{1:k},\psi^{(i)}\right)$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Combining the terms above with equation # we get:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
p\left(\theta_{k},\theta_{k+1}|N_{1:l},\psi^{(i)}\right)=c\left(\theta_{k+1}\right)\cdot p\left(\theta_{k+1}|\theta_{k},\psi^{(i)}\right)\cdot p\left(\theta_{k}|N_{1:k},\psi^{(i)}\right)
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Where 
\begin_inset Formula $c\left(\theta_{k+1}\right)$
\end_inset

 is independent of 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}$
\end_inset

.
 We now insert 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(\theta_{k+1}|\theta_{k},\psi^{(i)}\right)\sim N\left(\theta_{k},\Sigma\right)$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $p\left(\theta_{k}|N_{1:k},\psi^{(i)}\right)\sim N\left(\theta_{k|k},W_{k|k}\right)$
\end_inset

 and require that 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k|l},\theta_{k+1|l}$
\end_inset

 minimize:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
d\left(\theta_{k+1}\right)+\left(\theta_{k+1}-\theta_{k}\right)^{T}\cdot\Sigma^{-1}\cdot\left(\theta_{k+1}-\theta_{k}\right)+\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k}\right)^{T}\cdot W_{k|k}^{-1}\cdot\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k}\right)
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Where 
\begin_inset Formula $d\left(\theta_{k+1}\right)$
\end_inset

 is independent of 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}$
\end_inset

.
 If we assume that 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k+1|l}$
\end_inset

 is known we only need to minimize
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\left(\theta_{k+1|l}-\theta_{k}\right)^{T}\cdot\Sigma^{-1}\cdot\left(\theta_{k+1|l}-\theta_{k}\right)+\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k}\right)^{T}\cdot W_{k|k}^{-1}\cdot\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k}\right)
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
With repect to 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}$
\end_inset

.
 We take the derivative and set it to zero (remember that the matrices are
 symmetric):
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
0=\left(\Sigma^{-1}+W_{k|k}^{-1}\right)\cdot\theta_{k|l}-\Sigma^{-1}\cdot\theta_{k+1|l}-W_{k|k}^{-1}\cdot\theta_{k|k}
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
which solves to 
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\theta_{k|l}=\left(\Sigma^{-1}+W_{k|k}^{-1}\right)^{-1}\cdot\left(\Sigma^{-1}\cdot\theta_{k+1|l}+W_{k|k}^{-1}\cdot\theta_{k|k}\right)
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Using the identities in appendix 8.3 this resolves into:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\theta_{k|l}=\theta_{k|k}+A_{k}\cdot\left(\theta_{k+1|l}-\theta_{k+1|k}\right)
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
A_{k}=W_{k|k}W_{k+1|k}^{-1}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
Proof: 
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Set the matrices in appendix 8.3 to be 
\begin_inset Formula $M=I,R=\Sigma,P=W_{k|k}$
\end_inset

 and get 
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
\theta_{k|l}=\left(\Sigma^{-1}+W_{k|k}^{-1}\right)^{-1}\Sigma^{-1}\cdot\theta_{k+1|l}+\left(\Sigma^{-1}+W_{k|k}^{-1}\right)^{-1}W_{k|k}^{-1}\cdot\theta_{k|k}
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
=W_{k|k}\cdot\left(W_{k|k}+\Sigma\right)^{-1}\theta_{k+1|l}+\left(I-W_{k|k}\cdot\left(W_{k|k}+\Sigma\right)^{-1}\right)\theta_{k|k}
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
and all that is left is to identify 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k|k}=\theta_{k+1|k}$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $W_{k|k}+\Sigma=W_{k+1|k}$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Next we develop the smoothing of the covariance matrix.
 We define 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k|q}^{\sim}=\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|q}$
\end_inset

 and subtract equation # from 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}$
\end_inset

 to get:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
\theta_{k|l}^{\sim}+A_{k}\theta_{k+1|l}=\theta_{k|k}^{\sim}+A_{k}\theta_{k|k}
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We square both sides (multiply by transpose) and compute the expextation
 to get
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
W_{k|l}+\underset{=0}{A_{k}\left\langle \theta_{k+1|l}\theta_{k|l}^{\sim T}\right\rangle }+\underset{=0}{\left\langle \theta_{k|l}^{\sim}\theta_{k+1|l}^{T}\right\rangle A_{k}^{T}}+A_{k}\left\langle \theta_{k+1|l}\theta_{k+1|l}^{T}\right\rangle A_{k}^{T}=W_{k|k}+\underset{=0}{A_{k}\left\langle \theta_{k|k}\theta_{k|k}^{\sim T}\right\rangle }+\underset{=0}{\left\langle \theta_{k|k}^{\sim}\theta_{k|k}^{T}\right\rangle A_{k}^{T}}+A_{k}\left\langle \theta_{k|k}\theta_{k|k}^{T}\right\rangle A_{k}^{T}
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
and so, by the identity 
\begin_inset Formula $\left\langle \theta_{k}\theta_{k}^{T}\right\rangle =W_{k|q}+\left\langle \theta_{k|q}\theta_{k|q}^{T}\right\rangle $
\end_inset

 we get
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
W_{k|l}=W_{k|k}+A_{k}\cdot\left(W_{k+1|l}-W_{k+1|k}\right)\cdot A_{k}^{T}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Backwards (reverse) calculation:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We start with 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{K|K}$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $W_{K|K}$
\end_inset

 that resulted from the forward filter (section 4.1) and iterate equations
 #,# from K...1 to obtain 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k|K}$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $W_{k|K}$
\end_inset

 
\begin_inset Formula $\forall k$
\end_inset

.
 From these quantities we easily get:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
E\left(\theta_{k}^{2}|N,\psi^{(i)}\right)=\int p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{(i)}\right)\cdot\theta_{k}^{2}d^{K}\theta=W_{k|K}+\theta_{k|K}^{T}\theta_{k|K}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
state space covariance algorithm (de Jong and Mackinnon 1988)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Here we compute 
\begin_inset Formula $W_{k,u|K}\equiv\int p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)\cdot\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|K}\right)\cdot\left(\theta_{u}-\theta_{u|K}\right)d^{K}\theta$
\end_inset

 .
 We assume that 
\begin_inset Formula $1\le k\le u\le K$
\end_inset

 and use 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k|l}=\theta_{k|k}+A_{k}\cdot\left(\theta_{k+1|l}-\theta_{k+1|k}\right)$
\end_inset

 (equation # above).
 
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
Lemma: 
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The orthogonal projection of 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}$
\end_inset

 on the subspace 
\begin_inset Formula $N_{1},...,N_{k},\theta_{k+1}-\theta_{k+1|k},\epsilon_{s+1}...\epsilon_{K}$
\end_inset

 (with 
\begin_inset Formula $\epsilon_{k+1}=\theta_{k+2}-\theta_{k+1}$
\end_inset

 being the realization of the random additions in the brownian motion) is:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
\hat{\theta_{k}}=\theta_{k|k}+A_{k}\cdot\left(\theta_{k+1}-\theta_{k+1|k}\right)
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
Proof:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The inner product is 
\begin_inset Formula $\left\langle X,Y\right\rangle =E\left(XY\right)$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Both 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k+1}-\theta_{k+1|k}$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $\epsilon_{s+1}...\epsilon_{K}$
\end_inset

 have mean zero and are uncorrelated to each other and to 
\begin_inset Formula $N_{1},...,N_{k}$
\end_inset

.
 So the projection breaks (see appendix) to 
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\hat{\theta_{k}}=\theta_{k|k}+Cov\left(\theta_{k},\theta_{k+1}-\theta_{k+1|k}\right)\cdot W_{k+1|k}^{-1}\cdot\left(\theta_{k+1}-\theta_{k+1|k}\right)
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
and
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
Cov\left(\theta_{k},\theta_{k+1}-\theta_{k+1|k}\right)\cdot W_{k+1|k}^{-1}=Cov\left(\theta_{k},\theta_{k}\right)\cdot W_{k+1|k}^{-1}=A_{k}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hence, 
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
W_{k,u|K}\equiv Cov\left[\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|K},\theta_{u}-\theta_{u|K}\right]=Cov\left[\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|K},\theta_{u}\right]=Cov\left[\theta_{k}-\hat{\theta_{k}}+\hat{\theta_{k}}-\theta_{k|K},\theta_{u}\right]\overset{1}{=}Cov\left[\hat{\theta_{k}}-\theta_{k|K},\theta_{u}\right]
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
=Cov\left[A_{k}\cdot\left(\theta_{k+1}-\theta_{k+1|K}\right),\theta_{u}\right]=A_{k}W_{k+1,u|K}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Where the equality '1' stems from the orthogonality of the error in different
 steps.
 Namely, 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}-\hat{\theta_{k}}$
\end_inset

 is a projection of 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}$
\end_inset

 on a space that is uncorrelated to 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{u}$
\end_inset

.
 (See appendix)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
Calculating 
\begin_inset Formula $\left\langle \exp\left(\theta\right)\right\rangle $
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The last quantity we need to calculate in the E-step is 
\family roman
\series medium
\shape up
\size normal
\emph off
\bar no
\noun off
\color none

\begin_inset Formula $\int p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)\cdot\exp\left(\theta_{k,r}\right)d^{K}\theta$
\end_inset

.
 Here we expand 
\begin_inset Formula $\exp\theta_{k,r}$
\end_inset

 around 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k|K}$
\end_inset

 in a taylor series to the second order and get:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\exp\left(\theta_{k,r}\right)\approx\exp\left(\theta_{k|K,r}\right)+\left(\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|K}\right)\cdot\nabla_{\theta}\right)\exp\left(\theta\right)|_{\theta=\left(0,0,...,\theta_{k|K,r},0,..\right)}+\frac{1}{2}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|K}\right)\left[\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|K}\right)\nabla_{\theta}\left(\nabla_{\theta}\exp\theta\right)\right]|_{\theta=\left(0,0,...,\theta_{k|K,r},0,..\right)}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
and than take the expectation according to 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}\sim N\left(\theta_{k|K},W_{k|K}\right)$
\end_inset

 and get:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
E\left[\exp\theta_{k,r}|N,\psi^{(i)}\right]\approx\exp\theta_{k|K,r}+\frac{1}{2}\left[W_{k|K}\right]_{rr}\exp\theta_{k|K,r}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsection
M-Step - i'th iteration
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The goal here is to find 
\begin_inset Formula $\psi^{\left(i+1\right)}=\arg\max_{\psi}Q\left(\psi,\psi^{(i)}\right)$
\end_inset

.
 Remember,
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
Q\left(\psi,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)=E_{p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)}\left[\sum_{k=1}^{K}\sum_{l=1}^{T}\left(-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta+n_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right)\right)\right]
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
-\frac{1}{2}KR\log2\pi-\frac{1}{2}K\log\left|\Sigma\right|-\frac{1}{2}E_{p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)}\left[\sum_{k=1}^{K}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)^{T}\Sigma^{-1}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)\right]
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
With (reminder) 
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\lambda_{k}\left(l|\theta_{k},\gamma,H_{k}\right)=\exp\left\{ \sum_{r=1}^{R}\theta_{k,r}g_{,r}\left(l\right)\right\} \exp\left\{ \sum_{j=1}^{l}\gamma_{j}n_{k,l-j}\right\} 
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
Updating 
\begin_inset Formula $\gamma$
\end_inset

 (Newton-Raphson)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Newton raphson iteration for finding the extermum of 
\begin_inset Formula $f\left(x\right)$
\end_inset

 by 
\begin_inset Formula $x_{n+1}=x_{n}-\frac{f^{'}\left(x_{n}\right)}{f^{(2)}\left(x_{n}\right)}$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $Q\left(\psi,\psi^{(i)}\right)$
\end_inset

's dependence on 
\begin_inset Formula $\gamma$
\end_inset

 separates quite nicely.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
\frac{\partial Q}{\partial\gamma_{j}}=\sum_{k,l}\left(-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot\Delta\cdot n_{k}\left(l-j\right)+n_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot n_{k}\left(l-j\right)\right)
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
\frac{\partial^{2}Q}{\partial\gamma_{s}\partial\gamma_{j}}=-\Delta\sum_{k,l}\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot n_{k}\left(l-j\right)\cdot n_{k}\left(l-s\right)
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
These derivatives are used to follow an iterative algorithm whos 'm' iteration
 goes:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\gamma_{m+1}^{\left(i\right)}=\gamma_{m}^{\left(i\right)}-\left[\nabla_{\gamma}^{2}Q\right]^{-1}\cdot\nabla_{\gamma}Q|_{\gamma=\gamma_{m}^{(i)}}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
and the stopping criterion is 
\begin_inset Formula $\left|\gamma_{m+1}^{\left(i\right)}-\gamma_{m}^{\left(i\right)}\right|<10^{-2}$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
Updating 
\begin_inset Formula $\Sigma$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $Q\left(\psi,\psi^{(i)}\right)$
\end_inset

's dependence on 
\begin_inset Formula $\Sigma$
\end_inset

 separates completely.
 Furthermore, there is a closed form solution to:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\Sigma^{(i+1)}=\arg\max_{\Sigma}S\left(\Sigma\right)=\arg\max_{\Sigma}\left\{ -\frac{1}{2}K\log\left|\Sigma\right|-\frac{1}{2}E_{p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)}\left[\sum_{k=1}^{K}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)^{T}\Sigma^{-1}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)\right]\right\} 
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
In the original setting 
\begin_inset Formula $\Sigma$
\end_inset

 is a diagonal matrix.
 So, in this case we can assume 
\begin_inset Formula $\Sigma=\left(\begin{array}{cccc}
d_{1} &  &  & 0\\
 & .\\
 &  & .\\
0 &  &  & d_{R}
\end{array}\right)$
\end_inset

 and solve 
\begin_inset Formula $\frac{\partial S}{\partial d_{j}}=0$
\end_inset

:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
0=\frac{K}{d_{j}}-E_{p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)}\left[\sum_{k=1}^{K}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)^{T}\left(\begin{array}{cccc}
0 &  &  & 0\\
 & .\\
 &  & -\frac{1}{d_{j}^{2}}\\
0 &  &  & 0
\end{array}\right)\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)\right]=\frac{K}{d_{j}}-\frac{1}{d_{j}^{2}}E_{p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)}\left[\sum_{k=1}^{K}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)_{j}^{T}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)_{j}\right]
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
which is solved to:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
d_{j}=\frac{1}{K}E_{p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)}\left[\sum_{k=1}^{K}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)_{j}^{T}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)_{j}\right]
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
In the general case we use the fact that 
\begin_inset Formula $\Sigma$
\end_inset

 is symmetric and invertible so there exists a diagonal matrix 
\begin_inset Formula $D=\left(\begin{array}{cccc}
d_{1} &  &  & 0\\
 & .\\
 &  & .\\
0 &  &  & d_{R}
\end{array}\right)$
\end_inset

 and an orthogonal matrix 
\begin_inset Formula $O$
\end_inset

 such that 
\begin_inset Formula $\Sigma=ODO^{-1}$
\end_inset

.
 Introducing this into equation # we get
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $S\left(\Sigma\right)=-\frac{1}{2}K\log\left|\Sigma\right|-\frac{1}{2}E_{p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)}\left[\sum_{k=1}^{K}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)^{T}\Sigma^{-1}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)\right]$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $=-\frac{1}{2}K\log\left|D\right|-\frac{1}{2}\int d^{R}\theta p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)\left[\sum_{k=1}^{K}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)^{T}O^{T}D^{-1}O\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)\right]$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We make the change 
\begin_inset Formula $y_{k}=O\theta_{k}$
\end_inset

 which has a Jacobian with determinant 1 and get
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
S\left(D\right)=-\frac{1}{2}K\log\left|D\right|-\frac{1}{2}E_{p\left(O^{T}y|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)}\left[\sum_{k=1}^{K}\left(y_{k}-y_{k-1}\right)^{T}D^{-1}\left(y_{k}-y_{k-1}\right)\right]
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
which solves as above.
 All we need to do now is transform back to 
\begin_inset Formula $\Sigma$
\end_inset

 via:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\Sigma^{(i+1)}=\frac{1}{K}E_{p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)}\left[\sum_{k=1}^{K}O\left(\begin{array}{cccc}
\left(O^{T}\theta_{k}^{T}-O^{T}\theta_{k-1}^{T}\right)_{1}\left(O\theta_{k}-O\theta_{k-1}\right)_{1} &  &  & 0\\
 & .\\
 &  & .\\
0 &  &  & d_{R}
\end{array}\right)O^{-1}\right]
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
=\frac{1}{K}E_{p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)}\sum_{k}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)^{T}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
Updating 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{0}$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
This too has a closed form solution.
 The part of 
\begin_inset Formula $Q\left(\psi,\psi^{(i)}\right)$
\end_inset

 pertaining 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{0}$
\end_inset

 is 
\begin_inset Formula $-\frac{1}{2}E_{p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)}\left[\left(\theta_{1}-\theta_{0}\right)^{T}\Sigma^{-1}\left(\theta_{1}-\theta_{0}\right)\right]=-\sum_{ab}\frac{1}{2}E_{p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)}\left[\left(\theta_{1}-\theta_{0}\right)_{a}\Sigma_{ab}^{-1}\left(\theta_{1}-\theta_{0}\right)_{b}\right]$
\end_inset

.
 We derivate by 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{0q}$
\end_inset

 and equate to zero (taking into consideration that 
\begin_inset Formula $\Sigma^{-1}$
\end_inset

 is symmetric:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
-E_{p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)}\left[\Sigma^{-1}\left(\theta_{0}-\theta_{1}\right)\right]_{q}=0
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
But, since 
\begin_inset Formula $\Sigma$
\end_inset

 is invertible we obtain:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\theta_{0}^{(i+1)}=E_{p\left(\theta|N,\psi^{\left(i\right)}\right)}\left[\theta_{1}\right]
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
This concludes the M-step (and the original SSGLM).
 Next we include the stimulus features.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsection
Introducing stimulus features
\begin_inset Formula $ $
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Here we add another dimension to the CIF, the stimulus features.
 Thus, the change is:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\lambda_{k}\left(l|\theta_{k},\gamma,H_{k}\right)=\exp\left\{ \sum_{r=1}^{R}\sum_{\alpha=0}^{F}\theta_{k,\alpha,r}g_{,r}\left(l\right)f\left(x_{k}\right)_{\alpha}\right\} \exp\left\{ \sum_{j=1}^{l}\gamma_{j}n_{k,l-j}\right\} 
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Where, 
\begin_inset Formula $x_{k}$
\end_inset

 is the stimulus at thr k'th trial, 
\begin_inset Formula $f\left(x_{\alpha}\right)\in\left\{ -1,1\right\} ^{F+1}$
\end_inset

 is it's features and 
\begin_inset Formula $f_{0}$
\end_inset

 is always '1' to account for the feature independent cases.
 This change is equivalent to a dynamic PSTH for each feature.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Next we will see the changes in the algorithms this change introduces.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
log-likelihood function
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Here there's no change.
 We continue to assume 
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
p\left(\theta_{k+1}|\theta_{k}\right)\sim\mathbb{N}\left(0,\Sigma\right)
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
But now 
\begin_inset Formula $\Sigma$
\end_inset

 is symmetric and block diagonal because we construct 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}=\left(\theta_{k,r=1,\alpha=0},\theta_{k,r=1,\alpha=1},...,\theta_{k,r=1,\alpha=F},\theta_{k,r=2,\alpha=0},...\right)$
\end_inset

.
 For ease of use we identify 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k,r,\alpha}=\theta_{k}\left(\left(r-1\right)F+\alpha+1\right)$
\end_inset

The log-likelihood of observed spikes and hidden process (
\begin_inset Formula $L$
\end_inset

) doesn't change.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
E-step
\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Forward filter algorithm (Kalman++ Eden et al 2004)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The development of the forward filter starts the same.
 The differences start when taking derivatives of 
\begin_inset Formula $\lambda$
\end_inset

.
 Here we introduce the changes.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
\frac{\partial}{\partial\theta_{k,r,\alpha}}\rightarrow\left[W_{k|k}^{-1}\cdot\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k}\right)\right]_{r,\alpha}=\left[W_{k|k-1}^{-1}\cdot\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k-1}\right)\right]_{r,\alpha}-\sum_{l=1}^{T}\frac{\partial\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\right)}{\partial\theta_{k,r}}\cdot\left[n_{k}\left(l\right)-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right]
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
=\left[W_{k|k-1}^{-1}\cdot\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|k-1}\right)\right]_{r,\alpha}-\sum_{l=\left(r-1\right)\frac{T}{R}}^{r\frac{T}{R}}\left[n_{k}\left(l\right)-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right]\cdot f\left(x_{k}\right)_{\alpha}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
This should hold for 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}=\theta_{k|k-1}$
\end_inset

 so we insert it and get
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\theta_{k|k}=\theta_{k|k-1}+W_{k|k}\cdot\sum_{l=1}^{T}\frac{\partial\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\right)}{\partial\theta_{k}}\cdot\left[n_{k}\left(l\right)-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right]=\theta_{k|k-1}+W_{k|k}\cdot\left(\begin{array}{c}
\sum_{l=1}^{\frac{T}{R}}\left(n_{k}\left(l\right)-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot\Delta\right)\cdot\overrightarrow{f}\left(x_{k}\right)\\
.\\
.\\
\sum_{l=T\cdot\frac{R-1}{R}+1}^{T}\left(n_{k}\left(l\right)-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot\Delta\right)\cdot\overrightarrow{f}\left(x_{k}\right)
\end{array}\right)|_{\theta=\theta_{k|k-1}}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Another derivative yields:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
W_{k|k}^{-1}=W_{k|k-1}^{-1}-\sum_{l=1}^{T}\left\{ \frac{\partial^{2}\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\right)}{\partial\theta^{2}}\cdot\left[n_{k}\left(l\right)-\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\Delta\right]-\Delta\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot\frac{\partial\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\right)}{\partial\theta}\cdot\left(\frac{\partial\log\left(\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\right)}{\partial\theta}\right)^{T}\right\} |_{\theta=\theta_{k|k-1}}
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\left[W_{k|k}^{-1}\right]_{\left(a,\alpha\right),\left(b,\beta\right)}=\left[W_{k|k-1}^{-1}\right]_{\left(a,\alpha\right),\left(b,\beta\right)}+\Delta\cdot\delta_{ab}\sum_{l=\left(a-1\right)\frac{T}{R}+1}^{a\frac{T}{R}}\lambda_{k}\left(l\right)\cdot f_{\alpha}\left(x_{k}\right)\cdot f_{\beta}\left(x_{k}\right)|_{\theta=\theta_{k|k-1}}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Smoothing algorithm (Kalman smoother)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Here there are no changes.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
state space covariance algorithm (de Jong and Mackinnon 1988)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Here there are no changes.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
Calculating 
\begin_inset Formula $\left\langle \exp\left(\theta\right)\right\rangle $
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The last quantity we need to calculate in the E-step is 
\family roman
\series medium
\shape up
\size normal
\emph off
\bar no
\noun off
\color none

\begin_inset Formula $\int p\left(\theta|N,\psi'\right)\cdot\exp\left(\theta_{k,r}\right)d^{K}\theta$
\end_inset

.
 Here we expand 
\begin_inset Formula $\exp\theta_{k,r}$
\end_inset

 around 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k|K}$
\end_inset

 in a taylor series to the second order and get:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\[
\exp\left(\sum_{r,\alpha}\theta_{k,r,\alpha}g_{,r}\left(l\right)f\left(x_{k}\right)_{\alpha}\right)\approx\exp\left(\sum_{r,\alpha}\theta_{k|K,r,\alpha}g_{,r}\left(l\right)f\left(x_{k}\right)_{\alpha}\right)
\]

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $ $
\end_inset


\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
+\left(\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|K}\right)\cdot\nabla_{\theta}\right)\exp\left(\sum\theta gf\right)|_{\theta=\theta_{k|K}}+\frac{1}{2}\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|K}\right)\left[\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k|K}\right)\nabla_{\theta}\left(\nabla_{\theta}\exp\sum\theta gf\right)\right]|_{\theta=\theta_{k|K}}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
and than take the expectation according to 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k}\sim N\left(\theta_{k|K},W_{k|K}\right)$
\end_inset

 and get:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
E\left[\exp\left(\sum_{r,\alpha}\theta_{k,r,\alpha}g_{,r}\left(l\right)f\left(x_{k}\right)_{\alpha}\right)|N,\psi^{(i)}\right]\approx\exp\left(\sum_{\alpha}\theta_{k|K,r,\alpha}f\left(x_{k}\right)_{\alpha}\right)\cdot\left[1+\frac{1}{2}\sum_{\alpha,\beta}\left[W_{k|K}\right]_{\left(r,\alpha\right),\left(r,\beta\right)}\cdot f\left(x_{k}\right)_{\alpha}\cdot f\left(x_{k}\right)_{\beta}\right]
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
where 
\begin_inset Formula $r$
\end_inset

 is such that 
\begin_inset Formula $g_{r}\left(l\right)=1$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
M-step
\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Updating 
\begin_inset Formula $\gamma$
\end_inset

 (Newton-Raphson)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
No change.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Updating 
\begin_inset Formula $\Sigma$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
No change.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Updating 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{0}$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
No change.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsection
Introducing learning algorithms
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Learning algorithms can be introduced via the drift term in the stochastic
 waights update.
 Our approach will be to iterate the optimization of the stochastic processes
 with the updating of deterministic algorithmic properties (e.g.
 learning rate) with the goal of minimizing the random components (e.g.
 
\begin_inset Formula $\Sigma$
\end_inset

s)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsection
Appendices
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
Normal distribution
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
p\left(\mathbf{x}\right)=\left(2\pi\right)^{-\frac{d}{2}}\left|\mathbf{P}\right|^{-\frac{1}{2}}\exp\left[-\frac{1}{2}\left(\mathbf{x}-\mathbf{\mu}\right)^{T}\mathbf{P}^{-1}\left(\mathbf{x}-\mathbf{\mu}\right)\right]
\end{equation}

\end_inset

Where the mean is 
\begin_inset Formula $\mathbf{\mu}$
\end_inset

 and the covariance matrix is 
\begin_inset Formula $P_{ij}=cov\left(x_{i},x_{j}\right)$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
The convolution of gaussians
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We want to compute 
\begin_inset Formula $\int p\left(\theta_{k}|\theta_{k-1},\psi^{(i)}\right)p\left(\theta_{k-1}|N_{1:k-1},\psi^{(i)}\right)d\theta_{k-1}\sim\int\exp\left(-\frac{1}{2}\frac{\left(\theta_{k}-\theta_{k-1}\right)^{2}}{2\Sigma}\right)\otimes\exp\left(-\frac{1}{2}\frac{\left(\theta_{k-1}-\theta_{k-1|k-1}\right)^{2}}{2W_{k-1|k-1}}\right)d\theta_{k-1}=\int\exp\left(-\frac{1}{2}\frac{\left(u+\theta_{k-1|k-1}-\theta_{k}\right)^{2}}{2\Sigma}\right)\otimes\exp\left(-\frac{1}{2}\frac{u^{2}}{2W_{k-1|k-1}}\right)du$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
A simple fourier analysis (namely, the fact that the charachteristic function
 of the normal distribution 
\begin_inset Formula $N\left(\mu,\Sigma\right)$
\end_inset

 is 
\begin_inset Formula $\exp\left(i\mu^{T}t-\frac{1}{2}t^{T}\Sigma t\right)$
\end_inset

 ) shows that the result is also Gaussian with mean 
\begin_inset Formula $\theta_{k-1|k-1}$
\end_inset

 and variance 
\begin_inset Formula $W_{k-1|k-1}+\Sigma$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
Matrix equalities
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Let 
\begin_inset Formula $P,R,M$
\end_inset

 be square matrices (reversible)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Eq1: 
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $\left(I+PM^{T}R^{-1}M\right)^{-1}=I-PM^{T}\left(MPM^{T}+R\right)^{-1}M$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We simply check: 
\begin_inset Formula $\left(I+PM^{T}R^{-1}M\right)\cdot\left(I-PM^{T}\left(MPM^{T}+R\right)^{-1}M\right)=I+PM^{T}R^{-1}M-PM^{T}\left(MPM^{T}+R\right)^{-1}M-PM^{T}R^{-1}MPM^{T}\left(MPM^{T}+R\right)^{-1}M=I+PM^{T}R^{-1}\left(MPM^{T}+R-R-MPM^{T}\right)\left(MPM^{T}+R\right)^{-1}M=I$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Eq2:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Multiply by 
\begin_inset Formula $P$
\end_inset

 from the right and get: 
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $\left(I+PM^{T}R^{-1}M\right)^{-1}P=P-PM^{T}\left(MPM^{T}+R\right)^{-1}MP$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Eq3:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Multiply by 
\begin_inset Formula $M^{T}R^{-1}$
\end_inset

 from the right:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $\left(I+PM^{T}R^{-1}M\right)^{-1}PM^{T}R^{-1}=PM^{T}R^{-1}-PM^{T}\left(MPM^{T}+R\right)^{-1}MPM^{T}R^{-1}=PM^{T}\left(I-\left(MPM^{T}+R\right)^{-1}MPM^{T}\right)R^{-1}=PM^{T}\left(MPM^{T}+R\right)^{-1}\left(MPM^{T}+R-MPM^{T}\right)R^{-1}=PM^{T}\left(MPM^{T}+R\right)^{-1}$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Eq4:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $\left(I+PM^{T}R^{-1}M\right)^{-1}P=\left(P^{-1}+M^{T}R^{-1}M\right)^{-1}$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Proof: Take 
\begin_inset Formula $()^{-1}$
\end_inset

 from the left side, 
\begin_inset Formula $\left[\left(I+PM^{T}R^{-1}M\right)^{-1}P\right]^{-1}=P^{-1}\cdot\left(I+PM^{T}R^{-1}M\right)=P^{-1}+M^{T}R^{-1}M$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Eq5:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Since the left hand side of #4 and #2 is the same we get 
\begin_inset Formula $\left(P^{-1}+M^{T}R^{-1}M\right)^{-1}=P-PM^{T}\left(MPM^{T}+R\right)^{-1}MP$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Eq6:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Similarly, we insert Eq #4 into #3 and get
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $\left(P^{-1}+M^{T}R^{-1}M\right)^{-1}M^{T}R^{-1}=\left(I+PM^{T}R^{-1}M\right)^{-1}PM^{T}R^{-1}=PM^{T}\left(MPM^{T}+R\right)^{-1}$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
Orthogonal projection of random variables
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
We can treat functions of random variables as inner product vector spaces.
 More specifically we define the 
\begin_inset Formula $\sigma$
\end_inset

-algebra of a random variable 
\begin_inset Formula $X$
\end_inset

 as:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\sigma\left(X\right)=span\left\{ \delta_{x_{1}}\left(X\right),...,\delta_{x_{n}}\left(X\right)\right\} 
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
with 
\begin_inset Formula $A=\left\{ x_{1},...,x_{n}\right\} $
\end_inset

 being the possible values of 
\begin_inset Formula $X$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $\delta_{x_{i}}\left(X\right)=\begin{cases}
\begin{array}{c}
1\\
0
\end{array} & \begin{array}{c}
X=x_{i}\\
X\ne x_{i}
\end{array}\end{cases}$
\end_inset

 is an indicator function.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Defining the inner product, 
\begin_inset Formula $\left\langle X,Y\right\rangle =E\left(XY\right)$
\end_inset

, we see that 
\begin_inset Formula $\left\{ \delta_{x_{i}}\left(X\right)\right\} _{i=1}^{n}$
\end_inset

 is an orthogonal basis of 
\begin_inset Formula $\sigma\left(X\right)$
\end_inset

.
 Also, by definition 
\begin_inset Formula $\left\langle \delta_{x_{i}}\left(X\right),\delta_{y_{j}}\left(Y\right)\right\rangle =P\left(X=x_{i},Y=y_{j}\right)$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The orthogonal projection of 
\begin_inset Formula $\delta_{x_{i}}\left(X\right)$
\end_inset

 on 
\begin_inset Formula $\sigma\left(Y\right)$
\end_inset

 is thus 
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\sum_{j=1}^{m}\frac{\left\langle \delta_{x_{i}}\left(X\right),\delta_{y_{j}}\left(Y\right)\right\rangle }{\left\langle \delta_{y_{j}}\left(Y\right),\delta_{y_{j}}\left(Y\right)\right\rangle }\delta_{y_{j}}\left(Y\right)=\sum_{j=1}^{m}\frac{\left\langle \delta_{x_{i}}\left(X\right),\delta_{y_{j}}\left(Y\right)\right\rangle }{\left\langle \delta_{y_{j}}\left(Y\right)\right\rangle }\delta_{y_{j}}\left(Y\right)=E\left(\delta_{x_{i}}\left(X\right)|Y\right)
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
and this holds true to any function of 
\begin_inset Formula $X$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Example 1 (conditional expectance):
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Let 
\begin_inset Formula $\sigma_{L}\left(Y\right)=span\left\{ Y-E\left(Y\right),1\right\} $
\end_inset

 (an orthogonal basis).
 This means that projecting 
\begin_inset Formula $X$
\end_inset

 on 
\begin_inset Formula $\sigma_{L}\left(Y\right)$
\end_inset

 gives 
\begin_inset Formula $Cov\left(X,Y\right)\cdot Var\left(Y\right)^{-1}\cdot\left(Y-E\left(Y\right)\right)+E\left(X\right)$
\end_inset

.
 If X,Y are jointly normal this results holds for 
\begin_inset Formula $\sigma\left(Y\right)$
\end_inset

 itself and we get:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
E\left(X|Y\right)=E\left(X\right)+Cov\left(X,Y\right)\cdot Var\left(Y\right)^{-1}\cdot\left(Y-E\left(Y\right)\right)
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Example 2 (orthogonality):
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
As in any vector orthogonal projection we get that 
\begin_inset Formula $X-Cov\left(X,Y\right)\cdot Var\left(Y\right)^{-1}\cdot\left(Y-E\left(Y\right)\right)$
\end_inset

 is orthogonal to 
\begin_inset Formula $Y-E\left(Y\right)$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Example 3 (uncorrelated variables):
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Let Y,Z be uncorrelated (
\begin_inset Formula $Cov\left(Y,Z\right)=0$
\end_inset

).
 The projection of X on 
\begin_inset Formula $\left(Y,Z\right)-\left\langle \left(Y,Z\right)\right\rangle $
\end_inset

 is 
\begin_inset Formula $\left(Cov\left(X,Y\right),Cov\left(X,Z\right)\right)\cdot Var\left(Y,Z\right)^{-1}\cdot\left(\begin{array}{c}
Y-E\left(Y\right)\\
Z-E\left(Z\right)
\end{array}\right)$
\end_inset


\begin_inset Formula $=Cov\left(X,Y\right)\cdot Var\left(Y\right)^{-1}\cdot\left(Y-E\left(Y\right)\right)+Cov\left(X,Z\right)\cdot Var\left(Z\right)^{-1}\cdot\left(Z-E\left(Z\right)\right)$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Paragraph
Example 4 
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
If 
\begin_inset Formula $E\left(YZ\right)=\left\langle Y,Z\right\rangle =0$
\end_inset

 then the projection of X on Y,Z is 
\begin_inset Formula $\left(\left\langle X,Y\right\rangle ,\left\langle X,Z\right\rangle \right)\cdot\left(\begin{array}{cc}
\left\langle Y,Y\right\rangle  & \left\langle Z,Y\right\rangle \\
\left\langle Z,Y\right\rangle  & \left\langle Z,Z\right\rangle 
\end{array}\right)^{-1}\cdot\left(\begin{array}{c}
Y\\
Z
\end{array}\right)=\left\langle X,Y\right\rangle \cdot\left\langle Y,Y\right\rangle ^{-1}\cdot Y+\left\langle X,Z\right\rangle \cdot\left\langle Z,Z\right\rangle ^{-1}\cdot Z$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsubsection
Orthogonal projection and discrete optimal linear smoothing (Meditch 1967)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Let:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula 
\begin{equation}
\begin{array}[t]{c}
x_{k+1}=\phi_{k+1,k}\cdot x_{k}+u_{k}\\
z_{k}=H_{k}\cdot x_{k}+\nu_{k}
\end{array}
\end{equation}

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
define the dynamics and observation process.
 
\begin_inset Formula $x_{k}\in\mathbb{R}^{n},z_{k}\in\mathbb{R}^{m},\phi\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times n},H\in\mathbb{R}^{m\times m}$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $\left\langle u_{j}u_{k}^{T}\right\rangle =Q_{k}\cdot\delta_{kj},\left\langle \nu_{j}\nu_{k}^{T}\right\rangle =R_{k}\cdot\delta_{kj}$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Also, 
\begin_inset Formula $\left\langle x_{0}\right\rangle =0$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $\left\langle x_{0}x_{0}^{T}\right\rangle =P_{0}$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
Estimation
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The estimation of 
\begin_inset Formula $x_{k}$
\end_inset

 using data points 1...j is 
\begin_inset Formula $\hat{x}_{k|j}$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
Error
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The estimation error is 
\begin_inset Formula $\widetilde{x}_{k|j}=x_{k}-\hat{x}_{k|j}$
\end_inset

.
 An optimal estimation minimizes the squared error 
\begin_inset Formula $\left\langle \widetilde{x}_{k|j}^{2}\right\rangle $
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $\hat{x}_{k|j}$
\end_inset

 is a member of the vector space 
\begin_inset Formula $Y_{j}=\left\{ \sum_{i=1}^{j}B_{i}z_{i}|B_{i}\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times m}\right\} $
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
Orthogonal projections
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Define the orthogonal projection of 
\begin_inset Formula $x_{k}$
\end_inset

 on 
\begin_inset Formula $Y_{j}$
\end_inset

 as 
\begin_inset Formula $\bar{x}_{k|j}$
\end_inset

 and it follows:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
- 
\begin_inset Formula $x_{k}-\bar{x}_{k|j}\bot Y_{j}$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
- if 
\begin_inset Formula $x_{k}-\zeta\bot Y_{j}$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $\zeta\in Y_{j}$
\end_inset

 then 
\begin_inset Formula $\zeta=\bar{x}_{k|j}$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
Theorem 1:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $\bar{x}_{k|j}=\hat{x}_{k|j}$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
Proof 1:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
- 
\begin_inset Formula $\hat{x}_{k|j}\in Y_{j}$
\end_inset

 by definition
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
- Rewrite 
\begin_inset Formula $\left\langle \left(x_{k}-\hat{x}_{k|j}\right)^{2}\right\rangle =\left\langle \left(x_{k}-\bar{x}_{k|j}\right)^{2}\right\rangle +2\cdot\left\langle \left(x_{k}-\bar{x}_{k|j}\right)\cdot\left(\bar{x}_{k|j}-\hat{x}_{k|j}\right)\right\rangle +\left(\bar{x}_{k|j}-\hat{x}_{k|j}\right)^{2}$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The middle part is zero by the orthogonality of 
\begin_inset Formula $\left(x_{k}-\bar{x}_{k|j}\right)$
\end_inset

 to all members of the vector space 
\begin_inset Formula $Y_{j}$
\end_inset

 (including 
\begin_inset Formula $\left(\bar{x}_{k|j}-\hat{x}_{k|j}\right)$
\end_inset

) and the last part is non-negative.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
From the optimality of 
\begin_inset Formula $\hat{x}_{k|j}$
\end_inset

 we conclude that 
\begin_inset Formula $\bar{x}_{k|j}=\hat{x}_{k|j}$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
Theorem 2 (Kalman):
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $\hat{x}_{k+1|k}=\phi_{k+1,k}\cdot\hat{x}_{k}$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $M_{k+1}=\phi_{k,k+1}P_{k}\phi_{k,k+1}^{T}+Q_{k}$
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
with the covariance matrix 
\begin_inset Formula $M_{k+1}=\left\langle \tilde{x}_{k+1|k}\cdot\tilde{x}_{k+1|k}^{T}\right\rangle $
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
Define
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $\hat{z}_{k|j}=H_{k}\cdot\hat{x}_{k|j}$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $\tilde{z}_{k|j}=z_{k}-\hat{z}_{k|j}$
\end_inset

 and the vector space 
\begin_inset Formula $Z_{k+1}=\left\{ K_{k+1}\cdot\tilde{z}_{k+1|k}|K\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times m}\right\} $
\end_inset

 and get
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
Lemma:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Formula $Z_{k+1}$
\end_inset

is orthogonal to 
\begin_inset Formula $Y_{k}$
\end_inset

.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subparagraph
Proof:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
consider the basic vector 
\begin_inset Formula $\tilde{z}_{k+1|k}=z_{k+1}-H_{k+1}\phi_{k+1,k}\hat{x}_{k}$
\end_inset

(Kalman) which can be expanded to 
\begin_inset Formula $=H_{k+1}x_{k+1}+\nu_{k+1}-H_{k+1}\phi_{k+1,k}\hat{x}_{k}=H_{k+1}\phi_{k+1k}\cdot\left(x_{k}-\hat{x}_{k}\right)+H_{k+1}u_{k}+\nu_{k+1}$
\end_inset

.
 Now, 
\begin_inset Formula $u_{k}$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $\nu_{k+1}$
\end_inset

 are gaussian with mean zero and are trivially orthogonal to 
\begin_inset Formula $Y_{k}$
\end_inset

 and 
\begin_inset Formula $x_{k}-\hat{x}_{k}$
\end_inset

 is orthogonal to 
\begin_inset Formula $Y_{k}$
\end_inset

 from Theorem 1.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Subsection
References
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset

Stochastic processes and filtering theory
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset

 - Andrew H.Jazwinski (AP 1970 Vol 64)
\end_layout

\end_body
\end_document