From 1878118d27ea5e63f78ce718719981c8af9ee10e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Jarad Niemi <niemi@iastate.edu>
Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2013 11:47:53 -0600
Subject: [PATCH] added remainder of posts from wordpress

---
 ...9-23-a-much-better-template-heckerped.html |  12 +
 _posts/2009-09-28-added-a-calendar.html       |  12 +
 ...-models-are-wrong-but-some-are-useful.html |  14 +
 _posts/2009-10-01-google-wave.html            |  12 +
 ...0-02-kitchen-safe-digital-recipe-book.html |  16 +
 _posts/2009-10-02-student-blogging.html       |  17 +
 .../2009-10-05-dealing-with-bibtex-files.html |  12 +
 _posts/2009-10-05-qmss-ucsb.html              |  17 +
 ...10-07-another-reason-to-get-an-iphone.html |  12 +
 _posts/2009-10-08-meandering-river-video.html |  14 +
 _posts/2009-10-12-forecasting-datasets.html   |  33 ++
 _posts/2009-10-13-baltic-dry-index.html       |  17 +
 ...conomists-talk-climate-change-at-ucsb.html |  12 +
 _posts/2009-10-13-particle-mcmc-at-rss.html   |  12 +
 ...009-10-14-debt-as-a-percentage-of-gdp.html |  15 +
 ...9-10-15-all-space-missions-on-one-map.html |  14 +
 ...009-10-16-an-inconvenient-truth-graph.html |  15 +
 _posts/2009-10-21-seminar-today.html          |  13 +
 .../2009-10-26-bioengineering-insights.html   |  17 +
 _posts/2009-10-27-housing-starts.html         |  14 +
 ...009-10-28-core-faculty-member-of-qmss.html |  12 +
 ...wine-flu-mortality-rates-bubble-chart.html |  16 +
 ...2009-10-29-classy-california-governor.html |  12 +
 _posts/2009-10-29-mars-missions.html          |  14 +
 _posts/2009-10-29-u-s-homeownership-rate.html |  12 +
 _posts/2009-10-30-h1n1-deaths.html            |  16 +
 _posts/2009-10-30-motorola-droid.html         |  12 +
 ...03-october-economic-summary-in-graphs.html |  12 +
 ...-multi-level-models-in-stata-sas-or-r.html |  12 +
 .../2009-11-05-national-data-buoy-center.html |  14 +
 ...009-11-06-cdc-adds-daily-flu-tracking.html |  12 +
 _posts/2009-11-06-employment-recession.html   |  16 +
 _posts/2009-11-12-synthetic-biology.html      |  16 +
 ...arents-do-that-screw-kids-up-for-life.html |  24 ++
 _posts/2009-11-23-student-fee-hikes.html      |  12 +
 _posts/2009-12-01-flu-update.html             |  18 +
 _posts/2009-12-07-hit-by-spammers.html        |  14 +
 _posts/2009-12-09-flu-update-2.html           |  22 ++
 ...9-12-13-garmin-communicator-agreement.html |  64 ++++
 ...-13-garmin-software-license-agreement.html |  24 ++
 ...009-12-13-garmin-terms-and-conditions.html |  67 ++++
 _posts/2009-12-16-vista-service-pack-2.html   |  39 ++
 _posts/2009-12-28-hp-image-zone-software.html |  28 ++
 ...2-29-logitech-webcam-software-license.html |  48 +++
 _posts/2009-12-30-e-coli-o157h7-outbreak.html |  20 +
 _posts/2009-12-30-gmail-terms-of-service.html | 251 +++++++++++++
 .../2009-12-31-password-safe-agreement.html   | 208 ++++++++++
 _posts/2009-12-31-weekly-flu-update.html      |  12 +
 _posts/2010-01-02-h1n1-vaccine-recall.html    |  14 +
 ...-03-google-help-forum-terms-of-servic.html |  68 ++++
 _posts/2010-01-04-chase-auto-pay-terms.html   |  33 ++
 _posts/2010-01-04-mars-spirit-dead.html       |  14 +
 ...ucing-drug-resistant-staph-infections.html |  22 ++
 _posts/2010-01-06-windows-service-pack-3.html | 338 +++++++++++++++++
 ...1-because-the-grass-is-always-greener.html |  14 +
 ...01-12-health-care-quality-versus-cost.html |  12 +
 _posts/2010-01-12-vlc-terms.html              | 355 ++++++++++++++++++
 _posts/2010-01-13-uc-living-well.html         | 120 ++++++
 _posts/2010-01-19-weekly-flu-update-2.html    |  14 +
 ...ome-sales-decline-sharply-in-december.html |  14 +
 ...0-01-25-stewart-comments-on-olbermann.html |  12 +
 ...10-01-26-mars-spirit-rover-not-moving.html |  14 +
 ...01-26-olbermann-apologizes-to-stewart.html |  12 +
 _posts/2010-01-27-terraforming-mars.html      |  14 +
 .../2010-01-27-who-defends-h1n1-warning.html  |  24 ++
 ...-28-objections-to-bayesian-statistics.html |  17 +
 ...2010-01-28-yudof-interview-in-nytimes.html |  18 +
 _posts/2010-02-02-google-mars.html            |  14 +
 _posts/2010-02-05-google-health-corps.html    |  13 +
 ...ician-in-rtp-nc-and-the-dc-metro-area.html |  18 +
 _posts/2010-02-06-superbowl-ad-cost.html      |  14 +
 ...uring-your-prior-probability-accuracy.html |  16 +
 .../2010-02-15-moguls-scoring-revealed.html   | 110 ++++++
 ...-20-ucsb-5-in-environmental-economics.html |  21 ++
 _posts/2010-02-23-metrumrg-is-hiring.html     |  23 ++
 ...-25-oregon-state-university-is-hiring.html |  18 +
 ...3-beetle-population-dynamics-forecast.html |  17 +
 _posts/2010-03-03-student-forecasts.html      |  12 +
 ...epartment-of-statistics-virginia-tech.html |  26 ++
 ...3-05-analysis-of-approval-rating-data.html |  29 ++
 ...0-03-05-daily-exchange-rates-forecast.html |  26 ++
 ...-05-predicting-first-year-college-gpa.html |  20 +
 ...-of-the-minimum-temperature-in-goleta.html |  19 +
 ...0-03-06-intraday-stock-price-forecast.html |  24 ++
 .../2010-03-06-studying-gas-prices-in-la.html |  19 +
 .../2010-03-07-california-birth-outlook.html  |  19 +
 ...egular-retail-gasoline-price-forecast.html |  20 +
 .../2010-03-07-lake-temperature-forecast.html |  20 +
 ...-08-forecast-of-plasma-glucose-levels.html |  20 +
 ...lion-a-trillion-is-there-a-difference.html |  14 +
 ...-10-postdoc-position-at-umass-amherst.html |  30 ++
 _posts/2010-03-10-r-videos.html               |  12 +
 _posts/2010-03-15-march-madness.html          |  24 ++
 ...h-data-for-california-and-mississippi.html |  19 +
 ...ular-retail-gasoline-price-forecast-2.html |  19 +
 ...ture-in-goleta-based-on-a-sutse-model.html |  25 ++
 ...-and-forecast-of-approval-rating-data.html |  52 +++
 ...cting-academic-achievement-in-college.html |  22 ++
 ...-03-18-intraday-stock-prices-forecast.html |  23 ++
 ...change-rates-forecast-using-dlm-model.html |  22 ++
 ...010-03-19-lake-temperature-forecast-2.html |  20 +
 .../2010-03-19-modeling-gas-prices-in-la.html |  20 +
 ...ecast-means-of-suicides-and-homicides.html |  25 ++
 ...010-03-23-priors-are-model-extensions.html |  22 ++
 _posts/2010-03-25-technical-writing.html      |  20 +
 ...010-04-20-ucsb-statistics-ranked-55th.html |  15 +
 _posts/2010-05-03-post-doc-opportunity.html   |  51 +++
 ...ith-notation-in-applied-bayesian-work.html |  12 +
 ...-05-27-japans-foot-and-mouth-outbreak.html |  27 ++
 ...2010-06-23-valencia-9-invited-program.html |  14 +
 ...-25-bugs-in-packages-contributed-to-r.html |  14 +
 ...010-07-01-classic-statistics-articles.html |  12 +
 ...15-obtaining-quick-bibtex-information.html |  17 +
 ...010-09-20-legionnaires-outbreak-in-uk.html |  25 ++
 ...10-09-28-measles-outbreak-in-zimbabwe.html |  15 +
 .../2010-09-29-ucsb-statsappprob-ranking.html |  51 +++
 _posts/2010-10-13-cuda-troubles.html          |  22 ++
 .../2010-10-13-getting-started-with-cuda.html |  23 ++
 .../2010-10-22-cholera-outbreak-in-haiti.html |  19 +
 ...news-editor-for-significance-magazine.html |  16 +
 _posts/2010-11-03-chicken-pox-vaccine.html    |  24 ++
 _posts/2010-11-15-counting-cholera.html       |  17 +
 _posts/2010-12-30-mcmski-poster.html          |  15 +
 ...-04-200-countries-200-years-4-minutes.html |  20 +
 _posts/2011-01-04-phd-writing-skills.html     |  18 +
 _posts/2011-01-04-tweet-test.html             |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-08.html |  25 ++
 _posts/2011-01-12-seminar-today-2.html        |  19 +
 ...-12-statistics-and-applied-psychology.html |  18 +
 _posts/2011-01-13-phds-lacking-skills.html    |  28 ++
 ...itter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-15-2.html |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-15.html |  14 +
 _posts/2011-01-20-the-nocebo-effect.html      |  18 +
 _posts/2011-01-21-bank-failure-rate.html      |  22 ++
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-22.html |  18 +
 _posts/2011-01-24-glm-data-sets.html          |  17 +
 ...roximate-bayesian-computation-seminar.html |  22 ++
 ...-01-28-uci-systems-biology-conference.html |  21 ++
 ...itter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-29-2.html |  16 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-29.html |  14 +
 ...-02-02-egyptians-fighting-for-freedom.html |  17 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-05.html |  18 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-12.html |  15 +
 ...itter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-19-2.html |  27 ++
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-19.html |  26 ++
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-26.html |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-03-05.html |  15 +
 _posts/2011-03-09-possible-h2n2-pandemic.html |  33 ++
 _posts/2011-03-30-sweave-on-macosx.html       |  39 ++
 ...itter-weekly-updates-for-2011-04-16-2.html |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-04-16.html |  14 +
 ...itter-weekly-updates-for-2011-05-14-2.html |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-05-14.html |  14 +
 ...-open-problems-in-bayesian-statistics.html |  23 ++
 ...8-19-matt-damon-on-why-teachers-teach.html |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-08-20.html |  19 +
 _posts/2011-08-25-printer-software.html       | 124 ++++++
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-08-27.html |  15 +
 ...-tests-to-create-confidence-intervals.html |  27 ++
 _posts/2011-08-29-default-priors.html         |  15 +
 ...r-variance-parameters-are-informative.html |  15 +
 _posts/2011-08-31-jcgs-code.html              |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-03.html |  28 ++
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-10.html |  16 +
 ...11-09-14-venting-lessons-from-a-virus.html |  21 ++
 ...-15-the-scientific-basis-for-bachmann.html |  20 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-17.html |  15 +
 _posts/2011-09-19-reproducible-research.html  |  20 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-24.html |  19 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-01.html |  21 ++
 ...1-10-06-how-do-you-calculate-a-median.html |  17 +
 ...left-pointing-arrow-or-twiddles-error.html |  86 +++++
 ...11-10-07-expected-variable-name-error.html |  57 +++
 ...er-of-items-not-equal-to-size-of-node.html |  39 ++
 ...0-07-unknown-type-of-logical-function.html |  73 ++++
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-08.html |  15 +
 ...cance-article-on-statistical-graphics.html |  23 ++
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-15.html |  18 +
 _posts/2011-10-19-finding-an-advisor.html     |  35 ++
 ...-posteriors-dont-agree-with-intuition.html |  23 ++
 ...2011-10-21-no-error-error-in-openbugs.html |  57 +++
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-22.html |  24 ++
 ...ft-pointing-arrow-or-twiddles-error-2.html |  15 +
 ...-10-26-expected-variable-name-error-2.html |  15 +
 ...s-component-of-node-is-not-stochastic.html |  15 +
 ...n-not-sample-node-too-many-iterations.html |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-29.html |  16 +
 _posts/2011-11-02-models.html                 | 148 ++++++++
 ...2011-11-03-compstat-making-r-packages.html |  24 ++
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-11-05.html |  19 +
 ...2011-11-11-bayesians-vs-non-bayesians.html |  25 ++
 ...kl-divergence-versus-chi-square-tests.html |  32 ++
 ...11-mathematical-vs-statistical-models.html |  18 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-11-12.html |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-11-19.html |  15 +
 ...ontingent-at-the-2011-isds-conference.html |  31 ++
 ...al-position-at-university-of-arkansas.html |  64 ++++
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-12-10.html |  53 +++
 ...1-12-15-convergence-to-a-distribution.html |  29 ++
 ...itter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-07-2.html |  17 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-07.html |  16 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-14.html |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-21.html |  18 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-28.html |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-02-04.html |  16 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-02-18.html |  15 +
 _posts/2012-02-20-current-flu-status.html     |  29 ++
 _posts/2012-02-21-publishing-datasets.html    |  44 +++
 ...tatisticians-get-the-statistics-wrong.html |  23 ++
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-04-14.html |  16 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-04-21.html |  17 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-04-28.html |  19 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-05-05.html |  15 +
 ...e-fixed-but-unknown-even-to-bayesians.html |  17 +
 ...ompensation-to-professor-compensation.html |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-06-23.html |  16 +
 ...12-06-24-scientist-shortage-is-a-myth.html |  22 ++
 ...itter-weekly-updates-for-2012-06-30-2.html |  26 ++
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-06-30.html |  25 ++
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-07-14.html |  18 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-07-21.html |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-08-04.html |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-08-18.html |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-09-01.html |  15 +
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-09-29.html |  15 +
 ...g-trends-in-lowhigh-abundance-species.html | 129 +++++++
 ...twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-10-06.html |  16 +
 227 files changed, 6393 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-09-23-a-much-better-template-heckerped.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-09-28-added-a-calendar.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-09-30-all-models-are-wrong-but-some-are-useful.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-01-google-wave.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-02-kitchen-safe-digital-recipe-book.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-02-student-blogging.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-05-dealing-with-bibtex-files.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-05-qmss-ucsb.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-07-another-reason-to-get-an-iphone.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-08-meandering-river-video.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-12-forecasting-datasets.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-13-baltic-dry-index.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-13-economists-talk-climate-change-at-ucsb.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-13-particle-mcmc-at-rss.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-14-debt-as-a-percentage-of-gdp.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-15-all-space-missions-on-one-map.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-16-an-inconvenient-truth-graph.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-21-seminar-today.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-26-bioengineering-insights.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-27-housing-starts.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-28-core-faculty-member-of-qmss.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-28-swine-flu-mortality-rates-bubble-chart.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-29-classy-california-governor.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-29-mars-missions.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-29-u-s-homeownership-rate.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-30-h1n1-deaths.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-10-30-motorola-droid.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-11-03-october-economic-summary-in-graphs.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-11-05-multi-level-models-in-stata-sas-or-r.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-11-05-national-data-buoy-center.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-11-06-cdc-adds-daily-flu-tracking.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-11-06-employment-recession.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-11-12-synthetic-biology.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-11-13-7-things-good-parents-do-that-screw-kids-up-for-life.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-11-23-student-fee-hikes.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-12-01-flu-update.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-12-07-hit-by-spammers.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-12-09-flu-update-2.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-12-13-garmin-communicator-agreement.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-12-13-garmin-software-license-agreement.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-12-13-garmin-terms-and-conditions.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-12-16-vista-service-pack-2.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-12-28-hp-image-zone-software.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-12-29-logitech-webcam-software-license.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-12-30-e-coli-o157h7-outbreak.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-12-30-gmail-terms-of-service.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-12-31-password-safe-agreement.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2009-12-31-weekly-flu-update.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-02-h1n1-vaccine-recall.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-03-google-help-forum-terms-of-servic.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-04-chase-auto-pay-terms.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-04-mars-spirit-dead.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-05-reducing-drug-resistant-staph-infections.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-06-windows-service-pack-3.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-11-because-the-grass-is-always-greener.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-12-health-care-quality-versus-cost.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-12-vlc-terms.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-13-uc-living-well.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-19-weekly-flu-update-2.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-25-existing-home-sales-decline-sharply-in-december.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-25-stewart-comments-on-olbermann.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-26-mars-spirit-rover-not-moving.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-26-olbermann-apologizes-to-stewart.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-27-terraforming-mars.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-27-who-defends-h1n1-warning.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-28-objections-to-bayesian-statistics.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-01-28-yudof-interview-in-nytimes.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-02-02-google-mars.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-02-05-google-health-corps.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-02-05-phd-level-research-biostatistician-in-rtp-nc-and-the-dc-metro-area.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-02-06-superbowl-ad-cost.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-02-08-measuring-your-prior-probability-accuracy.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-02-15-moguls-scoring-revealed.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-02-20-ucsb-5-in-environmental-economics.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-02-23-metrumrg-is-hiring.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-02-25-oregon-state-university-is-hiring.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-03-beetle-population-dynamics-forecast.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-03-student-forecasts.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-04-opening-assistant-director-of-lisa-department-of-statistics-virginia-tech.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-05-analysis-of-approval-rating-data.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-05-daily-exchange-rates-forecast.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-05-predicting-first-year-college-gpa.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-06-forecast-of-the-minimum-temperature-in-goleta.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-06-intraday-stock-price-forecast.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-06-studying-gas-prices-in-la.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-07-california-birth-outlook.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-07-california-regular-retail-gasoline-price-forecast.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-07-lake-temperature-forecast.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-08-forecast-of-plasma-glucose-levels.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-10-a-million-a-billion-a-trillion-is-there-a-difference.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-10-postdoc-position-at-umass-amherst.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-10-r-videos.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-15-march-madness.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-17-a-tale-of-two-states-birth-data-for-california-and-mississippi.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-17-california-regular-retail-gasoline-price-forecast-2.html
 create mode 100644 _posts/2010-03-17-forecast-of-the-minimum-temperature-in-goleta-based-on-a-sutse-model.html
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diff --git a/_posts/2009-09-23-a-much-better-template-heckerped.html b/_posts/2009-09-23-a-much-better-template-heckerped.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..baeb0822
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-09-23-a-much-better-template-heckerped.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: A much better template - Heckerped
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Administrative
+layout: post
+---
+This template looks promising. I found it at <a title="imJTk.com" href="http://imjtk.com/" target="_blank">http://imjtk.com/</a> as a free template. The downsides are the first two links under blogroll and the attribution. Apparently for $35 I can get rid of these, but I think I will wait a bit longer to see if I like this template over all. One upside is that the header images seem easy to modify, but I don't have to worry about that initially since I actually like the images (except for the one I already deleted). 
diff --git a/_posts/2009-09-28-added-a-calendar.html b/_posts/2009-09-28-added-a-calendar.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..0338f541
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-09-28-added-a-calendar.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Added a calendar
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Administrative
+layout: post
+---
+During my job interviews last winter, somebody mentioned they had created a professional google calendar. The purpose of this calendar was to ease the burden of scheduling appointments with students by allowing students to suggest a time when the instructor was available. I have done the same, although at the moment my free time is abundant. The calendar can be found <a title="My Professional Calendar" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/calendar/" target="_self">here</a>.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-09-30-all-models-are-wrong-but-some-are-useful.html b/_posts/2009-09-30-all-models-are-wrong-but-some-are-useful.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..8302eea2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-09-30-all-models-are-wrong-but-some-are-useful.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: All models are wrong, but some are useful
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Modeling
+layout: post
+---
+I was perusing <a>Bobby Gramacy's introductory slides</a> for his Bayesian Inference course here at UCSB. On slide 11, he mentions the saying "All models are wrong, but some are useful." Googling for this phrase, I found a <a href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2008/06/all_models_are.html">post</a> by Andrew Gelman about this phrase where he reiterates the point that all models are wrong and the goal of posterior model checking is "to understand what aspects of the data are captured by the model and what aspects are not."
+
+My addition to this conversation focuses on the second half of the saying. The fact that all models are wrong should not discourage anybody from trying to model in the first place. Instead, modelers need to understand what scientific question is being asked and build a model to answer that question. A model will be useful if it can answer the question of interest.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-01-google-wave.html b/_posts/2009-10-01-google-wave.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..7eed6ea7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-01-google-wave.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Google wave
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Tools
+layout: post
+---
+<a title="Google wave" href="http://wave.google.com/" target="_blank">Google wave</a> is an in-development project that blurs the distinction between email, instant messaging, blogs, etc. It is meant as an online communication and collaboration tool. To incorporate this technology in the way we do work, it would great if the tool allowed users to mark up pdfs or images. I am only half-way through the video so perhaps it already does.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-02-kitchen-safe-digital-recipe-book.html b/_posts/2009-10-02-kitchen-safe-digital-recipe-book.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..8a8dad63
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-02-kitchen-safe-digital-recipe-book.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Kitchen-safe digital recipe book
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+I have had a few ideas for inventions. One of them is a digital recipe book with a touchscreen for navigation. Yesterday I decided to search to see if this product exists and sure enough it does. The <a href="http://www.mydemy.com/">Demy</a> is retailing for $300 and from their website
+
+<blockquote>The Demy is the first and only kitchen-safe digital recipe reader that will revolutionize the way you cook. The Demy holds your personal recipe collection in one compact, sleek device. Featuring a high-resolution color touchscreen, an uncluttered interface and many special tools to make any cook’s job easier.</blockquote>
+
+Good features include timers, measurement converters, and substitution suggestions. From reading the comments on amazon, it appears the Demy has a few problems to resolve including the inability to delete the default recipes and any cookbooks and tying the unit to a particular website. I would add to this that the Demy cannot be wall-mounted (as far as I can tell), no wifi, and cannot play music (streaming iTunes would be great). So although this is a step in the right direction it seems a bit pricey for what you get, still I'm happy somebody is working on the product.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-02-student-blogging.html b/_posts/2009-10-02-student-blogging.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..b1212e16
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-02-student-blogging.html
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Student blogging
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Modeling
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<a title="First student post on aguanomics" href="http://aguanomics.com/2009/10/hong-kong-taxinomics.html" target="_blank">Here</a> is a post by a student in EEP100 at Berkeley on the <a title="Aguanomics" href="http://aguanomics.com/" target="_blank">aguanomics</a> blog. This is the first of a series of posts by students.
+
+I'm considering implementing this for my PSTAT 262MC class on Applied Bayesian Time Series. My thought is to require students to post twice during the quarter. The first post will try to forecast a time series using just intuition, i.e. no math/stats. The second post will try to forecast a time series (possibly the same one) using a statistical model based approach.
+
+Any thoughts?
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-05-dealing-with-bibtex-files.html b/_posts/2009-10-05-dealing-with-bibtex-files.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..1864c8e9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-05-dealing-with-bibtex-files.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: dealing with bibTeX files
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Tools
+layout: post
+---
+After reading <a href="http://xianblog.wordpress.com/2009/10/06/merging-bibtex-files/">this post</a> about merging bibTeX files, it reminded me of a program I used in the writing of my dissertation. The program, <a href="http://www.molspaces.com/cb2bib/">cb2Bib</a>, is a &ldquo;free, open source, and multiplatform application for rapidly extracting unformatted, or unstandardized bibliographic references from email alerts, journal Web pages, and PDF files.&rdquo; This program in addition to an institutional subscription to <a href="http://www.statindex.org/">statindex.org</a> helped tremendously in quickly incorporating references.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-05-qmss-ucsb.html b/_posts/2009-10-05-qmss-ucsb.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..a2ebbe34
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-05-qmss-ucsb.html
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: QMSS @ UCSB
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Statistics
+- UCSB
+layout: post
+---
+To all Ph.D. students at the <a href="http://www.ucsb.edu/">University of California, Santa Barbara</a>, please check out the <a href="http://www.qmss.ucsb.edu/">quantitative methods in the social sciences</a> (QMSS) program. From the website:
+<blockquote>Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences (QMSS) at UCSB is an interdisciplinary Ph.D. emphasis available to students who wish to develop and use cutting-edge quantitative methods in social science research. Our curriculum is designed to provide students with the rigorous mathematical and statistical background necessary for advanced quantitative work, while also providing a broad interdisciplinary perspective on the use of quantitative methods in the social sciences. A growing number of departments and faculty participate in the emphasis and our weekly colloquia, which features speakers engaged in quantitative research across all social science disciplines.</blockquote>
+I recommend any student interested in quantitative analysis in their field check out QMSS.
+
+<strong>Forecast:</strong> Students with a QMSS emphasis will be more marketable than their counterparts without it.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-07-another-reason-to-get-an-iphone.html b/_posts/2009-10-07-another-reason-to-get-an-iphone.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..606a42ad
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-07-another-reason-to-get-an-iphone.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Another reason to get an iPhone
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+My current verizon contract is up and although I get a discount for being a UCSB employee, I'm not sure I want to continue with verizon. I like the idea of a do-everything device such as an iPhone or an android phone. This <a href="http://tech.slashdot.org/story/09/10/07/1133243/ATampT-To-Allow-VoIP-On-iPhone?from=rss">article</a> gives another reason to get an iPhone, namely AT&amp;T is going to allow VoIP over their data network. This would allow me to avoid the lack-of-minutes situation I am experiencing right now. (Tomorrow I will have all my minutes back.) My only hesitation here is that I would be doubling my monthly expense to get an iPhone plus data plan and I can't seem to justify it yet.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-08-meandering-river-video.html b/_posts/2009-10-08-meandering-river-video.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..f96d5ada
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-08-meandering-river-video.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Meandering river video
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Science
+layout: post
+---
+I heard about this video on <a title="NPR" href="http://www.npr.org/" target="_blank">National Public Radio</a>'s <a title="Science Friday" href="http://www.sciencefriday.com/" target="_blank">Science Friday</a>.
+<object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="320" height="255" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"><param name="flashvars" value="&amp;file=http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.flv?http://media.libsyn.com/media/sciencefriday/river-100209.flv&amp;height=255&amp;width=320&amp;frontcolor=0xffffff&amp;backcolor=0xeeeecc&amp;lightcolor=0xFFFFFF&amp;showdigits=false&amp;autostart=false&amp;showicons=false&amp;usefullscreen=true&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;image=http://www.sciencefriday.com/video/videoicon/river.jpg&amp;callback=http://www.sciencefriday.com/test/vidstats.php&amp;id=10244&amp;showdownload=true&amp;link=http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp4?http://media.libsyn.com/media/sciencefriday/river-100209.mp4" /><param name="src" value="http://www.sciencefriday.com/tools/players/mediaplayer.swf" /><param name="wmode" value="opaque" /><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="320" height="255" src="http://www.sciencefriday.com/tools/players/mediaplayer.swf" allowfullscreen="true" wmode="opaque" flashvars="&amp;file=http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.flv?http://media.libsyn.com/media/sciencefriday/river-100209.flv&amp;height=255&amp;width=320&amp;frontcolor=0xffffff&amp;backcolor=0xeeeecc&amp;lightcolor=0xFFFFFF&amp;showdigits=false&amp;autostart=false&amp;showicons=false&amp;usefullscreen=true&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;image=http://www.sciencefriday.com/video/videoicon/river.jpg&amp;callback=http://www.sciencefriday.com/test/vidstats.php&amp;id=10244&amp;showdownload=true&amp;link=http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp4?http://media.libsyn.com/media/sciencefriday/river-100209.mp4"></embed></object>
+The video is of a mini meandering river constructed in a laboratory. Apparently this has been attempted for a hundred years without success. From a scientific perspective the question is what are the necessary components to allow/force a river to meander. The key ingredients are course and fine sediment as well as vegetation for bank strength. The findings are published <a title="Meandering river article" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/40/16936.abstract?sid=bf970e2d-ebf0-4452-8245-471ff061cebf" target="_blank">here</a> in the <a title="PNAS" href="http://www.pnas.org/" target="_blank">Proceedings for the National Academy of Sciences</a>.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-12-forecasting-datasets.html b/_posts/2009-10-12-forecasting-datasets.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..6733b7ba
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-12-forecasting-datasets.html
@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Forecasting datasets
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Datasets
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+As part my of PSTAT 262 (Applied Bayesian Time Series) next semester, I plan on having students pick out a data set to make both non-model and model based forecasts for the series. My only requirement for the data are that the correct forecasts cannot already exist.  An additional suggestion is that the forecasts come true soon so that forecasts can be compared with realizations.
+
+Examples of <strong>unacceptable</strong> datasets are
+<ul>
+	<li>Dow Jones Index from 1990-2000</li>
+	<li>Dollars spent on US health care until 2005</li>
+	<li>Abundance of passenger pigeons</li>
+</ul>
+Examples of <strong>acceptable</strong> datasets are
+<ul>
+	<li>Yearly average S&amp;P 500 Index from 1949 to present</li>
+	<li>Mean global temperature in the past millennium</li>
+	<li>Median U.S. House price for the past 40 years</li>
+</ul>
+Examples of <strong>ideal</strong> datasets are
+<ul>
+	<li>Daily price of Coca-Cola stock since 2000</li>
+	<li>Number of daily airline passengers for the past 5 years</li>
+	<li>Weekly sunspot activity since 1977</li>
+</ul>
+Students will be asked to forecast their time series at two different time points: a relatively short forecast and one relatively long.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-13-baltic-dry-index.html b/_posts/2009-10-13-baltic-dry-index.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..9f4baaff
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-13-baltic-dry-index.html
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Baltic Dry Index
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Datasets
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+As mentioned in a previous <a href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/10/12/forecasting-datasets/">post</a>, I will be asking students in my PSTAT 262 class to choose and analyze a data set. I thought posting some suggestions on this blog would be a good way to introduce some possibilities.
+
+Shown below is a time series found at <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/baltic-dry-index-2/">Barry Ritholtz's blog</a> which tracks the cost of moving goods via the sea.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Baltic Dry Index" src="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/10-9-09-BDI.gif" alt="" width="500" height="375" />
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-13-economists-talk-climate-change-at-ucsb.html b/_posts/2009-10-13-economists-talk-climate-change-at-ucsb.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..df2c4460
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-13-economists-talk-climate-change-at-ucsb.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Economists talk climate change at UCSB
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Science
+layout: post
+---
+Oh man, I wish I had known about <a title="Economists talk climate change at UCSB" href="http://www.independent.com/news/2009/oct/12/economists-talk-climate-change-ucsb/" target="_blank">this</a> ahead of time.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-13-particle-mcmc-at-rss.html b/_posts/2009-10-13-particle-mcmc-at-rss.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..8f8f6f92
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-13-particle-mcmc-at-rss.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Particle MCMC at RSS
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Statistics
+layout: post
+---
+Tomorrow (14th Oct) at the Royal Statistical Society a <a title="Particle MCMC" href="http://www.rss.org.uk/main.asp?page=1836#Oct2009Meeting" target="_blank">paper is being read</a> entitled `Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.' The <a title="Particle MCMC paper" href="http://www.rss.org.uk/pdf/Andrieu_et_al._14.10.09.pdf" target="_blank">paper</a> uses sequential Monte Carlo methods to provide a proposal for the joint distribution of latent states in a state-space model.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-14-debt-as-a-percentage-of-gdp.html b/_posts/2009-10-14-debt-as-a-percentage-of-gdp.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..02da17a5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-14-debt-as-a-percentage-of-gdp.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Debt as a percentage of GDP
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Datasets
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<a title="PSTAT 262 Datasets" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/10/12/forecasting-datasets/" target="_self">Previously</a> I announced a plan to have students in my PSTAT 262 class model and forecast actual time series. Here is another example of a possible dataset for modeling which concerns US Debt from (almost) all sources as a percentage of GDP. As mentioned <a title="Link to original article" href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/quarterly-review-and-outlook-q3-2009/" target="_blank">here</a>, this debt does not include a few trillion in “off balance sheet” financing, contingent unfunded pension plans for corporate and state and local governments, or unfunded liabilities of the U.S. government for such items as Medicare, Social Security and other programs.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Debt as a percentage of GDP" src="http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-filesystemfile.ashx/__key/CommunityServer.Blogs.Components.WeblogFiles/john_5F00_mauldins_5F00_outside_5F00_the_5F00_box/jmotb101209image001_5F00_5BE06BA1.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="320" />
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-15-all-space-missions-on-one-map.html b/_posts/2009-10-15-all-space-missions-on-one-map.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..20fea42f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-15-all-space-missions-on-one-map.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: All space missions on one map
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Science
+layout: post
+---
+This is a pretty cool figure.
+
+<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/adamcrowe/4002050596/sizes/o/"><img class="alignnone" title="All space missions on one map" src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2445/4002050596_0c2b6c4dd2_o.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="243" /></a>
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-16-an-inconvenient-truth-graph.html b/_posts/2009-10-16-an-inconvenient-truth-graph.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..f8432d80
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-16-an-inconvenient-truth-graph.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: An inconvenient truth graph
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Datasets
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+Ever since watching <a title="An inconvenient truth" href="http://www.climatecrisis.net/" target="_blank">An inconvenient truth</a>, I have wondered about this figure that shows an apparent relationship between carbon dioxide and global temperature.  I couldn't find a better version of this picture.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Carbon dioxide - global temperature" src="http://farm1.static.flickr.com/167/380193705_4e21e9ea2a.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="358" />
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-21-seminar-today.html b/_posts/2009-10-21-seminar-today.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..85e009e9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-21-seminar-today.html
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Seminar today
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Statistics
+layout: post
+---
+I will be giving a seminar today in my department entitled `A sequential Monte Carlo primer.' The idea is to give those who are unfamiliar with the field an introduction. More can be read <a title="A sequential Monte Carlo primer" href="http://www.pstat.ucsb.edu/seminars.htm#Niemi" target="_blank">here</a> and obviously can be heard by coming to <span style="font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">South Hall 5607F @ 3:15 PM, refreshments available at 3PM.
+</span>
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-26-bioengineering-insights.html b/_posts/2009-10-26-bioengineering-insights.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..6ccac869
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-26-bioengineering-insights.html
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Bioengineering insights
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- UCSB
+layout: post
+---
+I'm currently attending <a title="Bioengineering Insights 2009" href="http://engineering.ucsb.edu/insights2009/" target="_blank">Bioengineering Insights 2009</a>. It is a one-day conference on the interdisciplinary research effort at UCSB and with industry in the fields of biology, engineering, chemistry, physics and (with any luck) statistics. The opening keynote address was given by <a title="Lee Hood" href="http://www.systemsbiology.org/Scientists_and_Research/Faculty_Groups/Hood_Group" target="_blank">Lee Hood</a> of the <a title="Institute for Systems Biology" href="http://www.systemsbiology.org/" target="_blank">Institute for Systems Biology</a>. He gave an overview talk about the work his group is doing at ISB and where he believes medicine is headed in the future. In particular, promoted the idea of P4 medicine, where the P's stand for Predictive, Preventive, Personalized, and Participatory and more information can be found <a title="P4 Medicine" href="http://www.systemsbiology.org/Intro_to_ISB_and_Systems_Biology/Predictive_Preventive_Personalized_and_Participatory" target="_blank">here</a>.
+
+I attended Session A: Systems Biology this morning and learned alot about research going on at UCSB. The speakers were <a title="Linda Petzold" href="http://www.me.ucsb.edu/dept_site/people/new_faculty_pages/petzold_page.html" target="_blank">Linda Petzold</a>, <a title="Cherie Briggs" href="http://www.lifesci.ucsb.edu/eemb/faculty/briggs/" target="_blank">Cherie Briggs</a>,<a title="Jean Carlson" href="http://www.physics.ucsb.edu/~carlson/" target="_blank"> Jean Carlson</a>, <a title="Megan Valentine" href="http://www.me.ucsb.edu/valentinelab/index.html" target="_blank">Megan Valentine</a>, and <a title="David Low" href="http://www.lifesci.ucsb.edu/mcdb/faculty/low/" target="_blank">David Low</a>. In particular, I think my research would mesh well with Linda Petzold and her work on Post-traumatic stress disorder, Cherie Briggs and her SIR-type modeling of  fungal infections in frogs, or David Low and his Markov chain approach to understanding a 1kilobase pair region of the bacterial genome. Overall I thought Session A was full of exciting new research topics.
+
+<cite>
+</cite>
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-27-housing-starts.html b/_posts/2009-10-27-housing-starts.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..7e579cfc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-27-housing-starts.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Housing starts
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Datasets
+layout: post
+---
+<a title="PSTAT 262 Project" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/10/12/forecasting-datasets/" target="_self">Previously</a> I have mentioned a plan to have students analyze a data set.  <a title="Current housing starts" href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/200909-housing-starts.JPG" target="_blank">Here</a> is an interesting dataset concerning housing starts. From wikipedia, <a title="Housing starts definition" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_starts" target="_blank">housing starts</a> "refers to the number of privately owned new homes (technically housing units) on which construction has been started in a given period." This index gives an indication of how the housing market is doing. 
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Housing starts index" src="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/200909-housing-starts.JPG" alt="" width="580" height="422" />
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-28-core-faculty-member-of-qmss.html b/_posts/2009-10-28-core-faculty-member-of-qmss.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..48975ee5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-28-core-faculty-member-of-qmss.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Core faculty member of QMSS
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- QMSS
+layout: post
+---
+Previously I discussed the <a title="QMSS post" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/10/05/qmss-ucsb/" target="_blank">Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences</a> program here at UCSB. I am now a core faculty member of this program as can be seen <a title="QMSS participants" href="http://www.qmss.ucsb.edu/participants.html" target="_blank">here</a>. This means I can serve as a QMSS advisor, although students can probably get more information by visiting the <a title="QMSS curriculum" href="http://www.qmss.ucsb.edu/curriculum.html" target="_blank">QMSS curriculum page</a>. I can also be the outside representative on a QMSS student's dissertation committee which is a requirement for the QMSS program. So I hope students start knocking down my door, although I'll be happy if one shows up.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-28-swine-flu-mortality-rates-bubble-chart.html b/_posts/2009-10-28-swine-flu-mortality-rates-bubble-chart.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..50f6f186
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-28-swine-flu-mortality-rates-bubble-chart.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Swine flu mortality rates - bubble chart
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Science
+layout: post
+---
+Andrew Gelman over at his <a href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/%7Ecook/movabletype/mlm/" target="_blank">Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science</a> blog often brings up figures that he thinks are good, bad, and ugly. I would like to continue that tradition here. I saw the figure below on Barry Ritholtz's <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog" target="_blank">The Big Picture</a> blog. Now, Barry's blog has nothing to do with statistics or swine flu, but since everybody is interested in swine flu these days, he decided to put this figure on his blog. From a probabilistic perspective, the point of the figure is very clear, <em>conditional on having the disease what is the probability of dying from it</em>. I would be very interested in this quantity if I had the disease, but since I don't have any of these diseases (that I am aware of), I don't care. The quantity I'm interested in is my marginal probability of dying from the disease. (Certainly I would prefer a conditional probability where we condition on my age, gender, geographical location, etc, but that is asking a bit much). So although this is an interesting and colorful figure, it has no relevance (yet) to my situation, although I will be happy to know that my chances of surviving swine flu once I get it are pretty good.
+
+Separately, why is the subtitle "Average % of infected who die"? Shouldn't it just be `% of infected who die'?
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Disease fatalities" src="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/disease_fatalities_550.gif" alt="" width="550" height="741" />
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-29-classy-california-governor.html b/_posts/2009-10-29-classy-california-governor.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..badc9fce
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-29-classy-california-governor.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Classy California governor
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+Having just moved to the state of California and having previously lived in a state where Jesse "the Body" Ventura used to be governor, I am severely disappointed with our governor and this veto letter. Perhaps, just maybe, the governor would have more cooperation with the legislature if he didn't treat them with such disrespect.<img class="aligncenter" title="Governor Schwarzeneggers Fuck You letter" src="http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/threatlevel/2009/10/1027fu.jpg" alt="" width="451" height="328" />
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-29-mars-missions.html b/_posts/2009-10-29-mars-missions.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..89f83882
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-29-mars-missions.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Mars missions
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Mars
+layout: post
+---
+If you don't know it yet, you will probably find out soon enough that I am a huge fan of Mars, the planet not the candy bar. This is a great picture of all the missions to Mars which I learned about through The Big Picture blog.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Mars missions" src="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/mars-missions-.jpg" alt="" width="580" height="773" />
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-29-u-s-homeownership-rate.html b/_posts/2009-10-29-u-s-homeownership-rate.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..f04d9fc0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-29-u-s-homeownership-rate.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: U.S. Homeownership Rate
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+Here is another example of a possible dataset for analysis in my PSTAT 262 course this winter. For more details about the project, see <a title="PSTAT 262 Project" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/10/12/forecasting-datasets/" target="_self">here</a>. Unfortunately I was not able to easily incorporate the picture into this post, so you will have to visit the figure at the <a title="U.S. Homeownership Rate" href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/q3-record-rental-vacancy-rate.html" target="_blank">Calculated Risk</a> blog.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-30-h1n1-deaths.html b/_posts/2009-10-30-h1n1-deaths.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..e785ee51
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-30-h1n1-deaths.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: H1N1 deaths
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- H1N1 flu
+layout: post
+---
+The other day, I criticized a graphic describing swine flu deaths in terms of its relevance to me. The figure below provides the estimates of the marginal probability of dying from different causes including H1N1 (swine flu). Of course, I will still complain and say, I'd prefer to see a figure that is conditional on my being a U.S. resident. Still this figure provides exactly the type of perspective that is needed concerning the impact swine flu is currently having on the world.
+
+With that being said, I believe public health officials are mainly worried about the possibility of H1N1 mutating into something that is much more contagious, or more importantly more deadly. If this happens soon, the world will still not have enough immunity (either through having been infected already or a vaccine) and the deaths could be catastrophic.
+
+[This image is no longer available. That's what I get for linking to the image rather than downloading it and linking to my own version.]
diff --git a/_posts/2009-10-30-motorola-droid.html b/_posts/2009-10-30-motorola-droid.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..59a7c535
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-10-30-motorola-droid.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Motorola droid
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+<a title="iPhone decision" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/10/07/another-reason-to-get-an-iphone/" target="_self">Previously</a> I have mentioned I'm in the market to get a new phone. The Motorola Droid is a possible alternative to getting an iPhone. This <a title="Motorola Droid preview" href="http://www.boygeniusreport.com/2009/10/23/motorola-droid-preview/" target="_blank">review</a> is pretty enthusiastic and the full specifications can be found <a title="Motorola Droid specs" href="http://www.motorola.com/Consumers/US-EN/Consumer-Product-and-Services/Mobile-Phones/ci.Motorola-DROID-US-EN.alt" target="_blank">here</a>. What is unclear to me at this point is what plan I will need to have to use the functionality of the Droid. I do not want to pay anymore than I currently am, which only gives me voice and free Verizon In calls (I pay per text message). So I understand I will not be able to use phone features that involve sending data over Verizon's network, but will I be able to take advantage of all the other functionality? I presume yes, but will need to find out before I jump in.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-11-03-october-economic-summary-in-graphs.html b/_posts/2009-11-03-october-economic-summary-in-graphs.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..e17bb4b3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-11-03-october-economic-summary-in-graphs.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: October Economic Summary in Graphs
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Datasets
+layout: post
+---
+<a title="October economic summary" href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/october-economic-summary-in-graphs.html" target="_blank">Here</a> are a number of datasets that could possibly be used for a <a title="PSTAT projects" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/10/12/forecasting-datasets/" target="_self">project in PSTAT 262</a>. All the time series indicate, in some fashion, our current economic condition.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-11-05-multi-level-models-in-stata-sas-or-r.html b/_posts/2009-11-05-multi-level-models-in-stata-sas-or-r.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..576c7ca3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-11-05-multi-level-models-in-stata-sas-or-r.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Multi-level models in Stata, SAS, or R
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+Today on Andrew Gelman's blog he discusses whether it is better to use Stata, SAS, or R to run <a title="Multi-level models with large datasets" href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2009/11/computing_power.html" target="_blank">multi-level models on large datasets</a>. Since I am in the process of (possibly) creating a short course on R and since I know very little about Stata and SAS, the topic was definitely of interest. As Gelman often does, there is no distinct correct answer (I like this btw....too many people believe they know the correct answer). Basically he says that if the data in all sub-groups is large, then analysis can be performed separately for all subgroups. In this case, any of the above software packages might work fine. But if an analysis needs to use the entire dataset, then he suggests that Stata &gt; SAS &gt;&gt; R (Stata is better than SAS, but both are much better than R).
diff --git a/_posts/2009-11-05-national-data-buoy-center.html b/_posts/2009-11-05-national-data-buoy-center.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..297335ae
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-11-05-national-data-buoy-center.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: National Data Buoy Center
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Datasets
+layout: post
+---
+The plot below from the <a title="National Buoy Data Center" href="http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/tour/virtr5.shtml" target="_self">National Data Buoy Center</a> is from two different stations (no idea where they are located) measuring air pressure. Although the data shown in this plot isn't current, data of this sort would be appropriate for my <a title="PSTAT 262 Project" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/10/12/forecasting-datasets/" target="_self">PSTAT 262 project</a>. Apparently the upshot of this particular figure was to decide that the buoy at 42043 has a bias in its reporting of air pressure since it is consistently above the air pressure at station 42035. Any reason to think the air pressure might just be consistently higher there? I have no idea, so I guess I will take the analyst word for it.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Ocean buoy data" src="http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/tour/42043_42035_baro_plot.gif" alt="" width="581" height="436" />
diff --git a/_posts/2009-11-06-cdc-adds-daily-flu-tracking.html b/_posts/2009-11-06-cdc-adds-daily-flu-tracking.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..e85765b2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-11-06-cdc-adds-daily-flu-tracking.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: CDC adds daily flu tracking
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- H1N1 flu
+layout: post
+---
+This story that I picked up on <a title="slashdot article" href="http://science.slashdot.org/story/09/11/06/1217203/CDC-Adopts-Near-Real-Time-Flu-Tracking-System?from=rss" target="_blank">slashdot</a> says that the Centers for Disease Control have partnered with GE Healthcare to receive data on 14 million patients in their network. (Of course, I cannot actually find an announcement from the CDC about this.) The data will be collected on a daily basis and provide information on flu prevalence and spread. To see the current information the CDC uses for flu surveillance go <a title="CDC flu surveillance" href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluactivity.htm" target="_blank">here</a> and for the most recent flu activity go <a title="CDC most recent flu activity" href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/" target="_blank">here</a>.  Compared to previous CDC surveillance, this method has the advantage of a huge database with timely responses. Of course, samples will still need to be analyzed to classify flu as seasonal or H1N1 (or other variants) which will add some delay in knowing which flu is active and when. My hope is that the CDC allows easier access to the data. I understand we will not receive the medical records for individuals, but some summary statistics on a reasonable spatial/time scale would be helpful.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-11-06-employment-recession.html b/_posts/2009-11-06-employment-recession.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..cf4ba0e4
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-11-06-employment-recession.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Employment recession
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Datasets
+layout: post
+---
+Originally posted by the blog <a title="Calculated risk" href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/11/employment-report-190k-jobs-lost-102.html" target="_blank">Calculated Risk</a> and then duplicated on The Big Picture, the figure below shows employment numbers for various recessions in U.S. history. Obviously this data is relevant to many people at the moment. Anybody in my PSTAT 262 care to take a stab at this data as part of their <a title="PSTAT 262 Project" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/10/12/forecasting-datasets/" target="_self">project</a>?
+
+I am curious why the data seem so jumpy in earlier years relative to the smooth curve for the current recession. Bad data gathering techniques? Untrustworthy news sources led to businesses not reacting at the same time?
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Employment recession" src="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/EmploymentRecessionsOct.jpg" alt="" width="581" height="377" />
diff --git a/_posts/2009-11-12-synthetic-biology.html b/_posts/2009-11-12-synthetic-biology.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..b5b2031f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-11-12-synthetic-biology.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Synthetic biology
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Systems Biology
+layout: post
+---
+<a title="Synthetic biology" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_biology" target="_blank">Synthetic biology</a> holds a lot of promise for developing organisms that perform functions that would otherwise require delicate and expensive devices. Imagine a bacteria designed to eat oil. Put some on an oil spill and they will clean up the area with minimal human intervention. They could even be dropped in from the air.
+
+National Public Radio's Science Friday had a <a title="SciFri" href="http://www.sciencefriday.com/program/archives/200911063" target="_blank">segment</a> on iGem, International Genetically Engineered Machine competition. This year's winner was a group of undergraduates from Cambridge who designed a set of bacteria which <a title="iGem Winners" href="http://2009.igem.org/Team:Cambridge" target="_blank">turn colors in response to stimulus</a>, literally (see image below). Imagine a developing country with possible arsenic in the water. Put some of the questionable water on a petri dish with these bacteria. If they turn green, the water is good and if they turn red you should try another well. This is a great advancement since no specialized equipment, e.g. flow cytometer, is necessary. Hopefully this machine will get incorporated into the <a title="BioBricks" href="http://bbf.openwetware.org/" target="_blank">BioBrick registry</a> which maintains a list of building blocks for creation of genetically engineered machines.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Colored bacteria" src="http://2009.igem.org/wiki/images/2/27/RAINBOW.png" alt="" width="580" height="193" />
diff --git a/_posts/2009-11-13-7-things-good-parents-do-that-screw-kids-up-for-life.html b/_posts/2009-11-13-7-things-good-parents-do-that-screw-kids-up-for-life.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..da6e7329
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-11-13-7-things-good-parents-do-that-screw-kids-up-for-life.html
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: 7 Things "Good Parents" Do (That Screw Kids Up for Life)
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- Science
+layout: post
+---
+This title is taken directly from this <a title="article" href="http://www.cracked.com/article/195_7-things-good-parents-do-that-screw-kids-up-life/" target="_blank">article</a> which discusses research implies or explicitly says a number of "good" parent tactics are actually bad for your child. The actual list of things that seem good, but aren't are
+<ul>
+	<li>Giving Your Kids a Creative Name</li>
+	<li>Teaching Them To Be Themselves</li>
+	<li>Making Them Play Sports</li>
+	<li>Starting Them In School Early</li>
+	<li>Warning Them About Strangers</li>
+	<li>Heaping Praise On Them</li>
+	<li>Showing Them Educational Videos</li>
+</ul>
+The fantastic part of this article is the undertone of sarcasm. Just to be clear, the article states that the above tactics are actually bad for your child according to recent published scientific research. But by saying it in a sarcastic way, the author really says the science is shoddy and these tactics are still good.
+
+From a statistics viewpoint, the research is interesting and following the links provided some of the discussion is right on. For example, following the link under "Giving Your Kids a Creative Name", the 153rd comment (which happened to be at the top of the list when I looked) hits the nail on the head. The comment points out that the authors didn't control for minority ethnic groups. So while the authors were trying to say that kids with creative names have a worse time in life, they instead just ended up showing that minority ethnic groups have a worse time.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-11-23-student-fee-hikes.html b/_posts/2009-11-23-student-fee-hikes.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d347533e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-11-23-student-fee-hikes.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Student fee hikes
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+There is an interesting <a title="protest discussion" href="http://www.env-econ.net/2009/11/why-students-protesting-tuition-hikes-in-california-are-wellintentioned-but-misguided.html" target="_blank">discussion</a> over at <a title="Environmental economics" href="http://www.env-econ.net/" target="_blank">Environmental Economics</a> discussing the UC student protests against raising student fees. The economic argument they are making is that if university tuition and fees remain the same while at the same time the university is receiving less state subside then the amount (or quality) of instruction occurring will decrease. They then ask the question: is this really what students want?
diff --git a/_posts/2009-12-01-flu-update.html b/_posts/2009-12-01-flu-update.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..4b88e43f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-12-01-flu-update.html
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Flu update
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "1"
+tags: 
+- H1N1 flu
+layout: post
+---
+Since disease surveillance is one of my areas of interest, I thought it would be good if I gave an update of the current progress of influenza. The two main sources I use for tracking influenza are the <a title="CDC flu" href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/" target="_blank">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</a> and <a title="Google flutrends" href="http://www.google.org/flutrends/us/" target="_blank">Google.org's flu trends</a>. Overall, the good news is that it appears the peak of H1N1 flu occurred around a month ago. Before you get too excited, I suspect we will see a second peak in February which will predominantly be seasonal flu. The height of this peak, and therefore the severity of the season flu, will depend on how well the vaccine matches the circulating strains. At this point it is too early to tell how well the vaccine will match.
+
+The CDC data is based on samples taken at reporting laboratories across the United States. Among the quantities of interest are the number of samples positive for flu and what the subtype is for these samples. In the past week (week 46), 1,880 (20.5%) samples tested positive for influenza and 1,478 (78.9%) of these were H1N1. So H1N1 is still the predominant flu strain around the U.S. Compare these numbers to the week 42 numbers where 8,268 (42.1%) samples tested positive and 5,453 (66.1%) were H1N1.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Flu week 46" src="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2009-2010/images/image461.gif" alt="" width="580" height="435" />
+
+The Google flutrends data are based on the number of google searches for flu-like terms. The actual terms are unknown to avoid the possibility of gaming the system. The google data shows that the peak of flu was also around a month ago and has been steadily decreasing since. The most recent data point suggests a leveling off of this decrease and therefore a possibility of a new peak upcoming. I guess we'll see.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-12-07-hit-by-spammers.html b/_posts/2009-12-07-hit-by-spammers.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..ff6b6c90
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-12-07-hit-by-spammers.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Hit by spammers
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Administrative
+layout: post
+---
+I'm sure my vast audience has realized that I got hit by a spammer. I was interested in how long this would take. Since my first post was on September 9th, that means it took about two and a half months.
+
+Comments are now being held for moderation while I look into a spam filter for comments. Sorry for the inconvenience.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-12-09-flu-update-2.html b/_posts/2009-12-09-flu-update-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..943721ed
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-12-09-flu-update-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Flu update
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- H1N1 flu
+layout: post
+---
+<a title="week 48" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/12/01/flu-update/" target="_self">Last flu update</a>
+
+Again this week the flu level has decreased.  The relevant numbers are provided in the table at the CDC flu site (<a title="CDC flu weekly" href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/" target="_blank">temporary link </a>and <a title="CDC flu week 47" href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2009-2010/weekly47.htm" target="_blank">permanent link</a> *). Of the 6,224 samples tested, only 956 (15.4%) were positive for influenza A. Both the total and the percentage are down from 1,880 (20.5%) last week. Of these 708 (74.5%) were H1N1 which is slightly lower than the same percentage last week 1,478 (78.9%). So the flu epidemic in the U.S. seems to be subsiding which is also in agreement with <a title="Google flutrends" href="http://www.google.org/flutrends/us/" target="_blank">google flutrends</a> data. As mentioned previously, I suspect we will see a second peak of non-H1N1 flu in January-February.
+
+One comment on the CDC site that I had not seen before was
+<blockquote>Seventeen influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported. Twelve of these deaths were associated with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus infection and five were associated with an influenza A virus for which the subtype was undetermined.</blockquote>
+The question is: what is the probability that the undetermined subtypes were in fact H1N1? Let's assume the absence of subtype information is not a result of the subtype, e.g. randomly those 5 were chosen to not be subtyped. Then an estimate of this probability is 74.5% (the empirical percentage of H1N1 of all influenza A viruses).
+
+Should we also use the information that the 12 that were subtyped were ALL H1N1? Yes, we should. The reason is that this provides information about the virulency of H1N1 vs non-H1N1, e.g. how deadly the different viruses are. To then calculate the above probability, we need to use Bayes Rule and estimates of 1) the probability of a death if an infant contracts H1N1 and 2) the overall death rate for infants contracting any influenza A strain. At this point, I don't have this information.
+
+* The temporary link will work until CDC updates the page with the new week information. At this point, the temporary link will point to week 48 (and a week later to week 49 and so on). The permanent link currently does not exist, but as soon as the CDC updates the weekly information, it should come alive. How does the CDC not create a permanent page immediately?
diff --git a/_posts/2009-12-13-garmin-communicator-agreement.html b/_posts/2009-12-13-garmin-communicator-agreement.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..a9f0851a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-12-13-garmin-communicator-agreement.html
@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Garmin communicator agreement
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- License agreements
+layout: post
+---
+In order to register my Garmin nuvi, in addition to the <a title="myGarmin terms and conditions" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/12/13/garmin-terms-and-conditions/" target="_blank">Garmin terms and conditions</a> to create a myGarmin account, I also need to agree to the Garmin communicator plug-in agreement, seen below:
+
+<blockquote>LICENSE AGREEMENT FOR GARMIN SOFTWARE
+====================================================
+
+THIS PRODUCT AND SOFTWARE ARE OWNED BY GARMIN LTD. OR ITS SUBSIDIARIES ("GARMIN") AND IS PROTECTED UNDER COPYRIGHT LAWS, INTERNATIONAL COPYRIGHT TREATIES AND OTHER INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY LAWS. THIS PRODUCT AND SOFTWARE ARE LICENSED, NOT SOLD. THIS PRODUCT AND SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LICENSE WHICH DEFINES WHAT YOU MAY DO WITH THE PRODUCT AND SOFTWARE AND CONTAINS USAGE RESTRICTIONS AND LIMITATIONS ON WARRANTIES AND/OR REMEDIES.
+ 
+IMPORTANT - READ THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF THIS END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT (THE "AGREEMENT") CAREFULLY BEFORE DOWNLOADING, INSTALLING, OR OTHERWISE USING THE GARMIN COMMUNICATOR SOFTWARE APPLICATION (THE "PRODUCT") OR THE USB SOFTWARE AND THE myGARMIN AGENT™ SOFTWARE (TOGETHER, THE "SOFTWARE").  BY DOWNLOADING, INSTALLING, USING, OR OTHERWISE ACCESSING THE PRODUCT AND THE SOFTWARE, YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE READ THIS AGREEMENT, THAT YOU UNDERSTAND IT, THAT YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY ITS TERMS AND CONDITIONS, AND THAT YOU ARE AT LEAST 18 YEARS OF AGE.  IF YOU DO NOT AGREE TO THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF THIS AGREEMENT, PROMPTLY EXIT THIS PAGE WITHOUT DOWNLOADING AND/OR USING THE PRODUCT OR THE SOFTWARE. 
+
+1. LICENSE: Subject to the terms and limitations set forth herein, Garmin ("we" or "us") grants you a limited non-exclusive license to use the Product and the Software in accordance with the terms of this Agreement.  All rights not expressly stated herein are reserved by Garmin, and Garmin disclaims any and all implied licenses.  The copyright and all other rights to the Product and the Software will remain with us. You must reproduce any copyright or other notice marked on the Product and the Software on all copies you make.
+ 
+2. YOU MAY: 
+
+	a) install and use one royalty free copy of the Product on a single computer or network for the sole purpose of enabling communication between your Garmin manufactured GPS device and a Garmin website or between your Garmin manufactured GPS device and a third-party website who has separately enabled the Garmin Communicator API to allow communication between your Garmin device and the third-party's website; and 
+
+	b) install and use one copy of the Software on a single computer or network for personal use of the Software in accordance with this Agreement. 
+
+3. YOU MUST NOT:  
+
+	a) make copies of the Product or Software except as expressly permitted in Section 2 of this Agreement; 
+
+	b) translate, reverse engineer, decompile, or disassemble the Product or Software;
+
+	c) remove or alter any copyright, trademark or other proprietary rights notices contained in the Software or any other Garmin content;
+
+	d) rent, lease, loan, sub-license, distribute, assign, or transfer the Product or Software;
+
+	e) transmit any viruses, worms, defects, Trojan horses, or any items of a destructive nature; 
+
+	f) use the Product or Software for any unauthorized purpose or in violation of any applicable laws or regulations;
+
+	g) modify the Product or Software or merge all or any part of the Product or Software with another program; or
+
+	h)  use the Product to communicate to or with any devices or products other than those GPS devices manufactured and distributed by or for Garmin and/or its subsidiaries.
+
+4. TERM:  This License will continue for as long as you use the Product or the Software.  However, this License will terminate automatically without notice from GARMIN if you fail to comply with any of its terms or conditions.  Upon termination you must immediately cease using the Product and the Software and remove the Product and the Software from your computer. The Limitations of Warranties and Liability set out below will continue in force even after any termination.
+
+5. LIMITATION OF WARRANTIES AND LIABILITY: THE PRODUCT AND SOFTWARE ARE PROVIDED ON AN "AS IS" BASIS, WITHOUT ANY  WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, OR ANY WARRANTY ARISING BY LAW, STATUTE, USAGE OF TRADE, OR COURSE OF DEALING. YOU ASSUME ALL RESPONSIBILITY AND RISK FOR THE USE OF THE PRODUCT AND SOFTWARE AND FOR THE USE OF ANY THIRD-PARTY WEBSITE, AND GARMIN DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY FOR ANY LOSS, INJURY OR DAMAGE RESULTING FROM USE OF THE PRODUCT AND THE SOFTWARE AND ANY THIRD-PARTY WEBSITE, WHETHER DIRECT OR INDIRECT, AND WHETHER OR NOT GARMIN HAS BEEN ADVISED OF OR HAS KNOWLEDGE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH LOSS, INJURY OR DAMAGE. IN NO EVENT WILL GARMIN HAVE ANY LIABILITY TO YOU OR ANY OTHER PERSON OR ENTITY FOR ANY COMPENSATORY, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR EXEMPLARY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOSS OF REVENUE OR PROFIT, LOST OR DAMAGED DATA OR OTHER COMMERCIAL OR ECONOMIC LOSS, EVEN IF WE HAVE BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES, OR THEY ARE FORESEEABLE.  WE ARE ALSO NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR CLAIMS BY A THIRD PARTY.   GARMIN'S TOTAL AGGREGATE LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ITS OBLIGATIONS UNDER THIS AGREEMENT OR OTHERWISE WITH RESPECT TO THE PRODUCT OR THE SOFTWARE WILL NOT EXCEED $1.00.  THE LIMITATIONS IN THIS SECTION WILL APPLY WHETHER OR NOT THE ALLEGED BREACH OR DEFAULT IS A BREACH OF A FUNDAMENTAL CONDITION OR TERM OR A FUNDAMENTAL BREACH. Some states do not allow the exclusion of incidental or consequential damages or the limitation of duration of an implied warranty so the above limitations may not apply to you. 
+
+6. RESTRICTED RIGHTS:  If this Product or Software is acquired by or for the U.S. Government, then it is provided with Restricted Rights.  Use, duplication, or disclosure by the U.S. Government is subject to restrictions as set forth in subparagraph (c)(1)(ii) of The Rights in Technical Data and Computer Software clause at DFARS 252.227-7018, or  subparagraphs (c)(1) and (2) of the Commercial Computer Software - Restricted Rights at 48 CFR 52.227-19, or clause 18-52.227-86(d) of the NASA Supplement to the FAR, as applicable.  The contractor/manufacturer is Garmin International, Inc., 1200 East 151st Street, Olathe, KS 66062, USA.
+
+7. EXPORT CONTROLS: You agree not to export or re-export the Product or the Software to any country in violation of the export control laws of the United States of America.
+
+8. GENERAL:  This Agreement is the entire agreement between us with respect to the subject matter hereof, superseding any other agreement or discussions, oral or written, and may not be changed except by a signed agreement. This Agreement will be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of the State of Kansas, United States of America. If any provision of this License is declared by a court of competent jurisdiction to be invalid, illegal, or unenforceable, such a provision will be severed from the Agreement and the other provisions will remain in full force and effect.
+
+9. EAR: The Product or Software may contain information that is subject to the Export Administration Regulations ("EAR") issued by the United States Department of Commerce (15 C.F.R., Chapter VII Subchapter C) and that may not be exported, released or disclosed to certain destinations and foreign nationals except in compliance with U.S. law.  The preceding statement is required to be included on any and all reproductions in whole or in part of the Product or Software.
+
+10.  INDEMNIFICATION:  You agree to indemnify and hold harmless Garmin, and its subsidiaries, affiliates, officers, agents, and employees, advertisers, licensors, and partners, from and against any third party claim arising from or in any way related to your use of the Product or Software, violation of this Agreement or any other actions connected with use of any content, including any liability or expense arising from all claims, losses, damages (actual and consequential), suits, judgments, litigation costs and attorneys' fees, of every kind and nature. 
+
+11.  INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY: You acknowledge that Garmin owns all right, title and interest, including without limitation all intellectual property rights, in and to the Product and Software and that you will not acquire any right, title or interest in or to the Product or Software, except the limited license expressly set forth in this Agreement.
+
+12.  COLLECTION, USE AND SHARING OF YOUR INFORMATION:  When you download and install the Product and the Software, if applicable to your Garmin device you will upload to Garmin from your device certain historical information that is stored on your device, including track logs (a track log consists of a list of spatial points and the times your device was at given spatial points), and information related to advertisements included with certain applications on your device, such as which advertisements were viewed on your device, how often they were clicked and how often certain actions such as saving a coupon or calling or routing to a location corresponding to an advertisement were performed.  You should review our Privacy Statement, which can be found at www.garmin.com/product/privacy, for more information regarding the ways in which we collect, use and share this information.  BY DOWNLOADING AND INSTALLING THE PRODUCT AND THE SOFTWARE, YOU CONSENT TO THE COLLECTION, USE AND SHARING OF THIS INFORMATION IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS PARAGRAPH AND OUR PRIVACY STATEMENT.</blockquote>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2009-12-13-garmin-software-license-agreement.html b/_posts/2009-12-13-garmin-software-license-agreement.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..2bb225c3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-12-13-garmin-software-license-agreement.html
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Garmin software license agreement
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- License agreements
+layout: post
+---
+I am on my third license agreement to register my Garmin nuvi. First I had to agree to the <a title="myGarmin terms and conditions" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/12/13/garmin-terms-and-conditions/>myGarmin terms and conditions</a>, then I had to agree to the <a title="Garmin communicator plug-in agreement" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/12/13/garmin-communicator-agreement/">Garmin communicator plug-in agreement</a>, and now I have to agree to the Garmin software license agreement.
+<blockquote>GARMIN™ SOFTWARE LICENSE AGREEMENT
+
+This download offers free firmware upgrades for select Garmin units. These upgrades are specific to the specific GPS units and software versions listed.
+
+Warning:
+This software should only be uploaded to the unit for which it is intended. If this software is uploaded to a GPS unit other than the product it is designed for, it will render the unit inoperative.If the software upload fails, and subsequent upload attempts prove unsuccessful, the unit may need to be returned to Garmin for service.
+
+Software License Agreement
+
+By downloading, installing, or using this software, you agree to be bound by the terms and conditions of the following license agreement. Please read this agreement carefully. Garmin Corporation ("Garmin") grants you a limited, non-exclusive license to use the upgrade software ("Software") in binary executable form in the normal operation of the applicable Garmin products. Title, ownership rights, and intellectual property rights in and to the Software remain in Garmin. This license is personal to you and you may make copies of the software only for your personal use. You agree that this license agreement does not need to be signed for it to take effect. The software is provided on an "as is" basis without warranty of any kind -- either expressed or implied -- including, without limitation, any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Garmin does not warrant the performance of the software or that the software will meet your requirements or operate error free. You acknowledge that this Software is the property of Garmin and is protected under United States of America copyright laws and international copyright treaties. You further acknowledge that the structure, organization, and code of the Software are valuable trade secrets of Garmin and that the Software in source code form remains a valuable trade secret of Garmin. You agree not to decompile, disassemble, modify, reverse assemble, reverse engineer, or reduce to human readable form the Software or any part thereof or create any derivative works based on the Software. You agree not to export or re-export the Software to any country in violation of the export control laws of the United States of America.
+
+The items or Software may contain information that is subject to the Export Administration Regulations (EAR) issued by the United States Department of Commerce (15 C.F.R., Chapter VII Subchapter C) and that may not be exported, released or disclosed to certain destinations and foreign nationals except in compliance with U.S. law. The preceding statement is required to be included on any and all reproductions in whole or in part of this item or Software.</blockquote>
diff --git a/_posts/2009-12-13-garmin-terms-and-conditions.html b/_posts/2009-12-13-garmin-terms-and-conditions.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c41d1e44
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-12-13-garmin-terms-and-conditions.html
@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Garmin terms and conditions
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- License agreements
+layout: post
+---
+I have been thinking about posting all the license agreements that I have agreed to and not actually read. I think the state of our legal system is out of date and these agreements are just one symptom. By posting it here, perhaps my readers will alert me when I have agreed to something ridiculous, but I'm not holding my breath. Not because I think I won't agree to something ridiculous, but why should you read my agreements if I don't. 
+
+Below is my first license agreement that must be agreed to in order to register my Garmin nuvi.
+
+
+
+<blockquote>myGarmin™ Terms of Use
+
+This document states the Terms and Conditions (the "Terms" or the "Agreement") under which you may use the myGarmin document portal (the "Portal"). As used herein, the term "you" refers to any person, entity, and/or organization granted access to the myGarmin portal. Please read these Terms carefully. By accessing and using the Portal, you accept and agree to be bound, without limitation or qualification, by these Terms. If you do not accept any of the Terms stated here, do not use the Portal. Garmin may, at its sole discretion, modify or revise these Terms at any time by updating this posting. You are bound by any such modification or revision and should therefore visit this page periodically to review the Terms.
+
+Registration
+
+In order to gain access to the Portal, you will be required to register with Garmin and be approved for access to the Portal. If you are granted access, you will be required enter your username and password before entering the Portal. You may not share your username or password with any third party.
+
+Use of Materials and Confidentiality
+
+Garmin authorizes you to view and download a single copy of certain Materials and documents designated for your viewing on the Portal for the sole purpose as described in the Portal documentation, which is incorporated into this Agreement by reference. The contents of the Portal, such as posted documents, text, graphics, images, drawings, and other materials (collectively, the "Materials") are the sole and exclusive property of Garmin and may constitute trade secrets or proprietary or confidential information of Garmin (hereinafter "Confidential Materials") if designated as confidential or proprietary by Garmin either in the Materials or in the Portal documentation. You agree not to disclose any of the Materials to any person or entity without the prior written consent of an authorized representative of Garmin, provided that you may disclose necessary portions of the Materials to any of your employees who have a need to receive such Materials for the limited purpose stated in the Portal and who have signed appropriate written agreements sufficient to compel such employee to comply with your confidentiality obligations hereunder. You shall take all necessary reasonable precautions to keep confidential the Materials viewed or downloaded from the Portal and prevent their unauthorized use. You agree to be responsible for enforcing the terms of this Agreement as to your employees and to take such action, including appropriate legal action, as may be necessary to prevent any unauthorized use or disclosure of Garmin's Materials by such employees.
+
+You agree not to use the Materials to reverse engineer, decompile, or disassemble any products or technology of Garmin. You may not, without the prior written permission of Garmin, "mirror" any Materials contained on the Portal. Further, unauthorized use of the Materials may violate copyright, trademark, and other laws. You shall notify Garmin immediately upon discovery of any unauthorized use or disclosure of any Materials and shall cooperate with Garmin in every reasonable way to help it regain possession of the Materials and prevent any further unauthorized use or disclosure.
+
+Copyright
+
+The copyright in all Materials posted to the Portal is held by Garmin or by the original creator of the Materials. Except as stated herein, none of the Materials may be copied, reproduced, distributed, republished, downloaded, displayed, posted or transmitted in any form or by any means, including but not limited to, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Garmin or the copyright owner.
+
+Garmin's Liability
+
+The Materials may contain inaccuracies or typographical errors. Garmin makes no representations about the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or timeliness of the Materials or about the results to be obtained from using the Portal and the Materials. Any use of the Portal and the Materials is at your own risk. Changes are periodically made to the Portal and may be made at any time. Some Materials on the Portal may be provided by third parties, and Garmin shall not be held responsible for any such Materials provided by third parties.
+
+GARMIN DOES NOT WARRANT THAT THE PORTAL WILL OPERATE ERROR-FREE OR THAT THIS PORTAL OR ITS SERVER ARE FREE OF COMPUTER VIRUSES OR OTHER HARMFUL GOODS. IF YOUR USE OF THE PORTAL OR THE MATERIALS RESULTS IN THE NEED FOR SERVICING OR REPLACING EQUIPMENT OR LOSS OF DATA, GARMIN IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR THOSE COSTS.
+
+THE PORTAL AND MATERIALS ARE PROVIDED ON AN 'AS IS' BASIS WITHOUT ANY WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND. GARMIN AND ITS SUPPLIERS, TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY, NON-INFRINGEMENT OF PROPRIETARY OR THIRD PARTY RIGHTS, AND THE WARRANTY OF FITNESS FOR PARTICULAR PURPOSE. GARMIN AND ITS SUPPLIERS MAKE NO WARRANTIES ABOUT THE ACCURACY, RELIABILITY, COMPLETENESS, OR TIMELINESS OF THE MATERIALS AND PORTAL.
+
+Disclaimer of Certain Damages
+
+IN NO EVENT SHALL GARMIN OR ITS SUBSIDIARIES, AFFILIATED COMPANIES, OFFICERS, DIRECTORS OR EMPLOYEES BE LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, INCIDENTAL, EXEMPLARY, AND CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, LOST PROFITS, OR DAMAGES RESULTING FROM LOST DATA OR BUSINESS INTERRUPTION) RESULTING FROM THE USE OR INABILITY TO USE THE PORTAL AND THE MATERIALS, WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT, OR ANY OTHER LEGAL THEORY, AND WHETHER OR NOT GARMIN IS ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES. SOME STATES DO NOT ALLOW THE EXCLUSION OR LIMITATION OF INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, SO THE ABOVE LIMITATION OR EXCLUSION MAY NOT APPLY TO YOU, IN WHICH CASE SUCH EXCLUSION OR LIMITATION APPLIES TO THE FULLEST EXTENT ALLOWABLE UNDER THE APPLICABLE LAW.
+
+Export Control
+
+The United States controls the export of products and information. You agree to comply with such restrictions and not to export or re-export the Materials to countries or persons prohibited under the export control laws. By downloading the Materials, you are agreeing that you are not in a country where such export is prohibited and that you are not on the U.S. Commerce Department's Table of Denial Orders or the U.S. Treasury Department's list of Specially Designated Nationals. You are responsible for compliance with the laws of your local jurisdiction regarding the import, export, or re-export of the Materials.
+
+General
+
+All legal issues arising from or related to the use of the Portal shall be construed in accordance with and determined by the laws of the State of Kansas applicable to contracts entered into and performed within the State of Kansas without respect to its conflict of laws principles. By using this Portal, you agree that the exclusive forum for any claims or causes of action arising out of your use of this Portal is the United States District Court for the District of Kansas, or any Kansas State court sitting in Johnson County.
+
+If any provision of this Agreement is found to be invalid by any court having competent jurisdiction, the invalidity of such provision shall not affect the validity of the remaining provisions of this Agreement, which shall remain in full force and effect. No waiver of any term of this Agreement shall be deemed a further or continuing waiver of such term or any other term. Any changes to this Agreement must be made in writing, signed by an authorized representative of Garmin.
+
+If you violate any of these Terms, your permission to use the Portal automatically terminates.
+
+Return Of Materials
+
+At the termination of your right to access the Portal or otherwise upon the written request by Garmin, you shall within ten (10) business days after receipt of such request, return to Garmin all documents and other Materials obtained from the Portal.
+
+Indemnity
+
+You agree to defend, indemnify, and hold harmless Garmin and its officers, directors, employees, agents, and affiliated companies from and against any claims, actions, damages, or demands, including without limitation reasonable legal and accounting fees, arising from or relating to your use of the Portal or your breach of the terms of this Agreement.</blockquote>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2009-12-16-vista-service-pack-2.html b/_posts/2009-12-16-vista-service-pack-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..effdcc55
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-12-16-vista-service-pack-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Vista Service Pack 2
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- License agreements
+layout: post
+---
+It seems that as I've already agreed to the Software license terms for the original Windows Vista, this seems excessive.
+
+<blockquote>MICROSOFT SOFTWARE LICENSE TERMS
+WINDOWS VISTA SERVICE PACK 2
+Microsoft Corporation (or based on where you live, one of its affiliates) licenses this supplement to you.  If you are licensed to use Windows Vista (the “software”), you may use this supplement. You may not use it if you do not have a license for the software.  You may use a copy of this supplement with each validly licensed copy of the software.
+The following license terms describe additional terms for the software.  These terms and the license terms for the software apply to your use of the supplement. If there is a conflict, these supplemental license terms apply. The changes include:
+·	additional privacy disclosures about Internet-based services
+·	proof of license for the software
+This list highlights some of the changes. The terms below govern your use of the software.
+By using this supplement, you accept these terms.  If you do not accept them, do not use this supplement.
+If you comply with these license terms, you have the rights below.
+1.	INTERNET-BASED SERVICES. Microsoft provides Internet-based services with the software.  It may change or cancel them at any time. The following are in addition to the Windows Vista license terms.
+
+a.	Consent for Internet-Based Services.  The software features described below and in the Windows Vista Privacy Statement connect to Microsoft or service provider computer systems over the Internet.  In some cases, you will not receive a separate notice when they connect.  You may switch off these features or not use them.  For more information about these features, see the Windows Vista Privacy Statement at http://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?Linkid=96553.  By using these features, you consent to the transmission of this information.  Microsoft does not use the information to identify or contact you.
+
+Computer Information.  The following features use Internet protocols, which send to the appropriate systems computer information, such as your Internet protocol address, the type of operating system, browser and name and version of the software you are using, and the language code of the device where you installed the software.  Microsoft uses this information to make the Internet-based services available to you.
+
+·	Plug and Play and Plug and Play Extensions.  You may connect new hardware to your device, with directly or over a network.  Your device may not have the drivers needed to communicate with that hardware.  If so, the update feature of the software can obtain the correct driver from Microsoft and install it on your device.  An administrator can disable this update feature. 
+
+·	Malicious Software Removal.  During setup of the software, if you select “Get important updates for installation”, the software may check for and remove certain malicious software (“Malware”) from your device during setup.  The Malware that will be removed, if found, is listed and periodically updated at http://www.support.microsoft.com/?kbid=890830. When the software checks your device for Malware, a report will be sent to Microsoft about any Malware detected, specific information relating to the detection, errors that occurred while the software was checking for Malware, and other information about your device that will help us improve this and other Microsoft products and services. No information included in these reports will be used to identify or contact you. You may disable the software’s reporting functionality by following the instructions found at http://www.support.microsoft.com/?kbid=890830. For more information, read the Windows Malicious Software Removal Tool privacy statement at http://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=113995.
+
+·	Network Awareness.  This feature determines whether a system is connected to a network by either passive monitoring of network traffic or active DNS or HTTP queries.  The query only transfers standard TCP/IP or DNS information for routing purposes.  You can switch off the active query feature through a registry setting.
+
+2.	PROOF OF LICENSE.
+Proof of License for Online Purchase of Electronic Download Software.  If you purchased and downloaded the software online from Microsoft, the information in your purchase confirmation email is your proof of license.  You may access your license information using your Windows Live ID to access your account on the Microsoft Store
+
+VistaSP2_RM.0_UPGR_RTL_en-us</blockquote>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2009-12-28-hp-image-zone-software.html b/_posts/2009-12-28-hp-image-zone-software.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..6804e486
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-12-28-hp-image-zone-software.html
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: HP Image Zone Software
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- License agreements
+layout: post
+---
+All I was trying to do was update the driver for an HP Photosmart 8450 printer. The CD with drivers has been lost so I had to search. Googling for an answer brought me to a site (hp.com) that said it had the driver I needed. What I actually ended up downloading was an exe file which presumably updates the necessary drivers. But why do I need to agree to the terms just to get a driver for a product I already have?
+
+<blockquote>LICENSE TERMS 
+FOR 
+HP IMAGE ZONE SOFTWARE 
+
+These License Terms govern your Use of the HP Image Zone Software. 
+1.    License Grant.    HP grants you a license to Use one copy of the Software.  "Use" includes using, storing, loading, installing, executing, and displaying the Software.  You may not modify the Software or disable any licensing or control features of the Software.   
+2.   Ownership.   The Software is owned and copyrighted by HP or its third party suppliers.  Your license confers no title to, or ownership in, the Software and is not a sale of any rights in the Software.  HP's third party suppliers may protect their rights in the event of any violation of these License Terms.
+3.   Copies and Adaptations.   You may only make copies or adaptations of the Software for archival purposes or when copying or adaptation is an essential step in the authorized Use of the Software. You must reproduce all copyright notices in the original Software on all copies or adaptations. You may not copy the Software onto any public network.
+4.   No Disassembly.   You may not Disassemble the Software unless HP's prior written consent is obtained.  "Disassemble" includes disassembling, decompiling, decrypting, and reverse engineering.   In some jurisdictions, HP's consent may not be required for limited Disassembly.  Upon request, you will provide HP with reasonably detailed information regarding any Disassembly. 
+5.   Transfer.   Your license will automatically terminate upon any transfer of the Software.  Upon transfer, you must deliver the Software, including all copies and related documentation, to the transferee.  The transferee must accept these License Terms as a condition of the transfer.
+6.   Termination.    HP may terminate your license, upon notice, for failure to comply with any of these License Terms.  Upon termination, you must immediately destroy the Software, together with all copies, adaptations and merged portions in any form.
+7.   Export Requirements.   You may not export or re-export the Software or any copy or adaptation in violation of any applicable laws or regulations.
+8.   U.S. Government Restricted Rights.   The Software has been developed entirely at private expense.  It is delivered and licensed, as defined in any applicable DFARS, FARS, or other equivalent federal agency regulation or contract clause, as either "commercial computer software" or "restricted computer software", whichever is applicable.  You have only those rights provided for such Software by the applicable clause or regulation or by these License Terms. 
+</blockquote>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2009-12-29-logitech-webcam-software-license.html b/_posts/2009-12-29-logitech-webcam-software-license.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..88dc88c9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-12-29-logitech-webcam-software-license.html
@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Logitech webcam software license
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- License agreements
+layout: post
+---
+Trying to install a Logitech webcam required me to agree to this software license. What if I decide to not agree to this license? Will a store allow me to return the product once it has been opened?
+
+
+<blockquote>Software License Agreement
+
+Logitech is willing to license thIS software to you only on the condition that you accept all of the terms contained in this license agreement. This is a legal agreement between you (either an individual end-user or an entity) and Logitech (“Agreement”).  By using this software, you are agreeing to be bound by the terms and conditions of this Agreement.  If you do not agree to the terms and conditions of this Agreement, promptly return the software and other items that are part of this product in their original package with your sales receipt to your point of purchase for a full refund, or if you have downloaded this software from a Logitech web site, then you must stop using the software and destroy any copies of the software in your possession or control.
+
+
+1.	Grant of Agreement.  Subject to the terms and conditions of this Agreement, Logitech and its suppliers grant to you a nonexclusive license to use one copy of the software program and any documentation accompanying this Agreement (“Software”) on one computer only with the Logitech product you have purchased.  No other rights are granted.  The Software is in use if it is loaded on the computer's permanent or temporary memory. For backup purposes only, you may make one copy of the Software. You must include on the backup copy all copyright and other notices included on the Software as supplied by Logitech. Installation on a network server for the sole purpose of your internal distribution of the Software is permitted only if you have purchased an individual Software license for each networked computer to which the Software is distributed.
+
+2.	Restrictions. The Software contains copyrighted material, trade secrets, and other proprietary materials of Logitech and its licensors.  You agree that in order to protect those proprietary materials, except as expressly permitted by applicable law, neither you nor a third party acting on your behalf will:  (i) decompile,  disassemble or reverse engineer the Software; (ii) modify or create derivative works of the Software; (iii)  use the Software in any manner to provide service bureau, commercial time-sharing or other computer services to third parties; (iv) transmit the Software or provide its functionality, in whole or in part, over the Internet or other network (except as expressly permitted above); or (v) sell, distribute, rent, lease, sublicense or otherwise transfer the Software to a third party, except upon a permanent transfer of the Logitech product using the Software; provided that: (a) all Software updates are included in the transfer, (b) you do not retain a copy of the Software, and (c) the transferee agrees to be bound by the terms and conditions in this Agreement.
+
+3.	Ownership.  The Software is licensed, not sold, to you for use only under the terms and conditions of this Agreement, and Logitech reserves all rights not expressly granted to you in this Agreement.  Logitech and/or its licensors retain title to the Software, and all intellectual property rights therein. 
+
+4.	Termination. This Agreement is effective until terminated. Upon any violation of any of the provisions of this Agreement, rights to use the Software shall automatically terminate and the Software must be returned to Logitech or all copies of the Software destroyed. You may also terminate this Agreement at any time by destroying all copies of the Software in your possession or control.  If Logitech makes a request via public announcement or press release to stop using the copies of the Software, you will comply immediately with this request.  The provisions of paragraphs 3, 7, 8 and 12 will survive any termination of this Agreement.
+
+5.	Limited Product Warranty.  Logitech warrants to you that the Software will substantially conform to its published documentation and the media containing the Software shall be free from defects in material, each for a period of ninety (90)  days from the date of purchase.  Logitech's limited warranty is nontransferable and is limited to the original purchaser.  This warranty gives you specific legal rights, and you may also have other rights which vary under local laws.
+
+6.	Remedies.  Logitech's entire liability and your exclusive remedy for any breach of warranty shall be, at Logitech's option, to: (a) repair or replace the Software or media, provided that the Software or media is returned to the point of purchase or such other place as Logitech may direct, with a copy of the sales receipt,or (b) refund the price paid.  Any replacement Software or media will be warranted for the remainder of the original warranty period or thirty (30) days,whichever is longer. These remedies are void if failure of the Software or media has resulted from accident, abuse, or misapplication.
+
+7.	disclaimer of warranty. the warranties expressly set forth in this agreement replace all other warranties. Logitech AND ITS SUPPLIERS expressly disclaim all other warranties, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose and noninfringement of third-party rights with respect to the software OR MEDIA, and any warranties of non-interference or accuracy of informational content.  No Logitech dealer, agent, or employee is authorized to make any modification, extension, or addition to this warranty.  Some jurisdictions do not allow limitations on how long an implied warranty lasts, so the above limitation may not apply to you.
+
+8.	limitation of liability. In no event will Logitech or its SUPPLIERS be liable for any costs of procurement of substitute products or services, lost profits, loss of information or data, or any other special, indirect, consequential, or incidental damages arising in any way out of the sale of, use of, or inability to use any logitech product or service, even if Logitech has been advised of the possibility of such damages. In no case shall Logitech's AND ITS SUPPLIERS’ TOTAL liability exceed the actual money paid for the LOGITECH product OR SERVICE GIVING RISE TO THE LIABILITY.    Some jurisdictions do not allow the exclusion or limitation of incidental or consequential damages, so the above limitation or exclusion may not apply to you.  The above limitations will not apply in case of personal injury where and to the extent that applicable law requires such liability.
+
+9.	U.S. Government Restricted Rights. Use, duplication, or disclosure by the U.S. Government is subject to restrictions set forth in this Agreement and as provided in DFARS 227.7202-1(a) and 227.7202-3(a) (1995), DFARS 252.227-7013(c)(1)(ii) (OCT 1988) FAR 12.212(a) (1995), FAR 52.227-19, or FAR 52.227-14 (ALT III), as applicable. Logitech Inc. 6505 Kaiser Drive, Fremont, CA 94555.
+
+10.	Export Law Assurances.  You agree and certify that neither the Software nor any other technical data received from Logitech will be exported outside the United States except as authorized and as permitted by the laws and regulations of the United States.  If you have rightfully obtained the Software outside of the United States, you agree that you will not re-export the Software nor any other technical data received from Logitech, except as permitted by the laws and regulations of the United States and the laws and regulations of the jurisdiction in which you obtained the Software.
+
+11.	Agents and Third Party Purchasers.  If you are acquiring the Software on behalf of another person or entity, you represent and warrant that you have the authority to bind the party or entity for which you are acquiring the Software to the terms and conditions of this Agreement.
+
+12.	General Terms and Conditions.  This Agreement will be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of the United States and the State of California, without regard to or application of its choice of law rules or principles. If for any reason a court of competent jurisdiction finds any provision of this Agreement, or portion thereof, to be unenforceable, that provision of the Agreement shall be enforced to the maximum extent permissible so as to affect the intent of the parties, and the remainder of this Agreement shall continue in full force and effect.  This Agreement constitutes the entire agreement between the parties with respect to the use of the Software and supersedes all prior or contemporaneous understandings, communications or agreements, written or oral, regarding such subject matter.  Logitech may, in its sole discretion, modify portions of this Agreement at any time.  Logitech may notify you of any changes by posting notice of such modifications on Logitech’s web site(s) or sending notice via e-mail, postal mail or other means.  Your continued use of the Software following notice of such modifications shall be deemed to be your acceptance of any such modifications to the Agreement.  If you do not agree to any such modifications, you must immediately stop using the Software and destroy all copies of the Software in your possession or control.   
+
+The Software is protected by United States copyright law and international treaty.  Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of the Software is subject to civil and criminal penalties.
+
+Copyright (c) 1996-2008 Logitech.  All Rights Reserved
+</blockquote>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2009-12-30-e-coli-o157h7-outbreak.html b/_posts/2009-12-30-e-coli-o157h7-outbreak.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..7bc78b92
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-12-30-e-coli-o157h7-outbreak.html
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: E. coli O157:H7 outbreak
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- E. coli
+layout: post
+---
+This outbreak is now a bit outdated (the CDC's final update was Nov 24th), but for completeness I will include it here. For the latest on all E. coli outbreaks, you can visit the <a title="CDC E.coli" href="http://www.cdc.gov/ecoli/" target="_blank">CDC E. coli site</a>. The <a title="2009 E. coli outbreak" href="http://www.cdc.gov/ecoli/2009/index.html" target="_blank">O157:H7</a> outbreak has its first reported illness on September 17, 2009,  and the last on November 6, 2009. With no recent reported illnesses, this outbreak does not seem to be of serious current concern, but please note the beef recall on the bottom of this post.
+
+Nonetheless, prepares of beef should check the package and look for the following (taken from the CDC site):
+<blockquote>Most of the beef packages in the recall bear the establishment number "Est. 492" inside the USDA mark of inspection and have identifying package dates of "091409", "091509" or "091609".</blockquote>
+The map below shows the locations of persons affected with E. coli o157:H7. For those in the vicinity there seems to be little to worry about since the epicenter of the outbreak appears to be in the northeast with only 1 case in California. I'm curious if this person in California had traveled to the northeast and was actually infected there.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="E. coli O157:H7 infection map" src="http://www.cdc.gov/ecoli/images/maps/2009/11/24_map.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="321" />
+
+The only new news about this outbreak is that a <a title="O157:H7 Beef recall" href="http://www.fsis.usda.gov/News_&amp;_Events/Recall_067_2009_Release/index.asp" target="_blank">recall</a> was announced relating to the O157:H7 outbreak. On Dec 24, 2009, <a title="National Steak and Poultry" href="http://www.nationalsteak.com/" target="_blank">National Steak and Poultry</a> recalled about 248,000 pounds of beef that may be contaminated.  For more information visit <a title="National Steak and Poultry 2009 recall" href="http://www.nationalsteak.com/Recall.htm" target="_blank">their site</a> or the <a title="USDA 2009 recall" href="http://www.fsis.usda.gov/News_&amp;_Events/Recall_067_2009_Release/index.asp" target="_blank">USDA's</a>.
diff --git a/_posts/2009-12-30-gmail-terms-of-service.html b/_posts/2009-12-30-gmail-terms-of-service.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..964e5007
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-12-30-gmail-terms-of-service.html
@@ -0,0 +1,251 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Gmail terms of service
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- License agreements
+layout: post
+---
+I realize this blog is getting a bit off-topic during this holiday season. What should primarily be statistics and science discussion has turned into posts of software licenses and terms of service. This is certainly due to the computer tech support I provide when visiting my parents and my in-laws. Once the quarter starts up, I suspect the number of these types of posts will decrease dramatically. Of course, my first couple of posts will probably be of this variety as I attempt to upgrade from Windows Vista to Windows 7.
+
+Creating new gmail accounts required me to agree to these terms of service:
+
+
+<blockquote>Google Terms of Service
+
+Welcome to Google!
+
+1. Your relationship with Google
+
+    1.1 Your use of Google’s products, software, services and web sites (referred to collectively as the “Services” in this document and excluding any services provided to you by Google under a separate written agreement) is subject to the terms of a legal agreement between you and Google. “Google” means Google Inc., whose principal place of business is at 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States. This document explains how the agreement is made up, and sets out some of the terms of that agreement.
+
+    1.2 Unless otherwise agreed in writing with Google, your agreement with Google will always include, at a minimum, the terms and conditions set out in this document. These are referred to below as the “Universal Terms”.
+
+    1.3 Your agreement with Google will also include the terms of any Legal Notices applicable to the Services, in addition to the Universal Terms. All of these are referred to below as the “Additional Terms”. Where Additional Terms apply to a Service, these will be accessible for you to read either within, or through your use of, that Service.
+
+    1.4 The Universal Terms, together with the Additional Terms, form a legally binding agreement between you and Google in relation to your use of the Services. It is important that you take the time to read them carefully. Collectively, this legal agreement is referred to below as the “Terms”.
+
+    1.5 If there is any contradiction between what the Additional Terms say and what the Universal Terms say, then the Additional Terms shall take precedence in relation to that Service.
+
+2. Accepting the Terms
+
+    2.1 In order to use the Services, you must first agree to the Terms. You may not use the Services if you do not accept the Terms.
+
+    2.2 You can accept the Terms by:
+
+        (A) clicking to accept or agree to the Terms, where this option is made available to you by Google in the user interface for any Service; or
+
+        (B) by actually using the Services. In this case, you understand and agree that Google will treat your use of the Services as acceptance of the Terms from that point onwards.
+
+    2.3 You may not use the Services and may not accept the Terms if (a) you are not of legal age to form a binding contract with Google, or (b) you are a person barred from receiving the Services under the laws of the United States or other countries including the country in which you are resident or from which you use the Services.
+
+    2.4 Before you continue, you should print off or save a local copy of the Universal Terms for your records.
+
+3. Language of the Terms
+
+    3.1 Where Google has provided you with a translation of the English language version of the Terms, then you agree that the translation is provided for your convenience only and that the English language versions of the Terms will govern your relationship with Google.
+
+    3.2 If there is any contradiction between what the English language version of the Terms says and what a translation says, then the English language version shall take precedence.
+
+4. Provision of the Services by Google
+
+    4.1 Google has subsidiaries and affiliated legal entities around the world (“Subsidiaries and Affiliates”). Sometimes, these companies will be providing the Services to you on behalf of Google itself. You acknowledge and agree that Subsidiaries and Affiliates will be entitled to provide the Services to you.
+
+    4.2 Google is constantly innovating in order to provide the best possible experience for its users. You acknowledge and agree that the form and nature of the Services which Google provides may change from time to time without prior notice to you.
+
+    4.3 As part of this continuing innovation, you acknowledge and agree that Google may stop (permanently or temporarily) providing the Services (or any features within the Services) to you or to users generally at Google’s sole discretion, without prior notice to you. You may stop using the Services at any time. You do not need to specifically inform Google when you stop using the Services.
+
+    4.4 You acknowledge and agree that if Google disables access to your account, you may be prevented from accessing the Services, your account details or any files or other content which is contained in your account.
+
+    4.5 You acknowledge and agree that while Google may not currently have set a fixed upper limit on the number of transmissions you may send or receive through the Services or on the amount of storage space used for the provision of any Service, such fixed upper limits may be set by Google at any time, at Google’s discretion.
+
+5. Use of the Services by you
+
+    5.1 In order to access certain Services, you may be required to provide information about yourself (such as identification or contact details) as part of the registration process for the Service, or as part of your continued use of the Services. You agree that any registration information you give to Google will always be accurate, correct and up to date.
+
+    5.2 You agree to use the Services only for purposes that are permitted by (a) the Terms and (b) any applicable law, regulation or generally accepted practices or guidelines in the relevant jurisdictions (including any laws regarding the export of data or software to and from the United States or other relevant countries).
+
+    5.3 You agree not to access (or attempt to access) any of the Services by any means other than through the interface that is provided by Google, unless you have been specifically allowed to do so in a separate agreement with Google. You specifically agree not to access (or attempt to access) any of the Services through any automated means (including use of scripts or web crawlers) and shall ensure that you comply with the instructions set out in any robots.txt file present on the Services.
+
+    5.4 You agree that you will not engage in any activity that interferes with or disrupts the Services (or the servers and networks which are connected to the Services).
+
+    5.5 Unless you have been specifically permitted to do so in a separate agreement with Google, you agree that you will not reproduce, duplicate, copy, sell, trade or resell the Services for any purpose.
+
+    5.6 You agree that you are solely responsible for (and that Google has no responsibility to you or to any third party for) any breach of your obligations under the Terms and for the consequences (including any loss or damage which Google may suffer) of any such breach.
+
+6. Your passwords and account security
+
+    6.1 You agree and understand that you are responsible for maintaining the confidentiality of passwords associated with any account you use to access the Services.
+
+    6.2 Accordingly, you agree that you will be solely responsible to Google for all activities that occur under your account.
+
+    6.3 If you become aware of any unauthorized use of your password or of your account, you agree to notify Google immediately at http://www.google.com/support/accounts/bin/answer.py?answer=48601.
+
+7. Privacy and your personal information
+
+    7.1 For information about Google’s data protection practices, please read Google’s privacy policy at http://www.google.com/privacy.html. This policy explains how Google treats your personal information, and protects your privacy, when you use the Services.
+
+    7.2 You agree to the use of your data in accordance with Google’s privacy policies.
+
+8. Content in the Services
+
+    8.1 You understand that all information (such as data files, written text, computer software, music, audio files or other sounds, photographs, videos or other images) which you may have access to as part of, or through your use of, the Services are the sole responsibility of the person from which such content originated. All such information is referred to below as the “Content”.
+
+    8.2 You should be aware that Content presented to you as part of the Services, including but not limited to advertisements in the Services and sponsored Content within the Services may be protected by intellectual property rights which are owned by the sponsors or advertisers who provide that Content to Google (or by other persons or companies on their behalf). You may not modify, rent, lease, loan, sell, distribute or create derivative works based on this Content (either in whole or in part) unless you have been specifically told that you may do so by Google or by the owners of that Content, in a separate agreement.
+
+    8.3 Google reserves the right (but shall have no obligation) to pre-screen, review, flag, filter, modify, refuse or remove any or all Content from any Service. For some of the Services, Google may provide tools to filter out explicit sexual content. These tools include the SafeSearch preference settings (see http://www.google.com/help/customize.html#safe). In addition, there are commercially available services and software to limit access to material that you may find objectionable.
+
+    8.4 You understand that by using the Services you may be exposed to Content that you may find offensive, indecent or objectionable and that, in this respect, you use the Services at your own risk.
+
+    8.5 You agree that you are solely responsible for (and that Google has no responsibility to you or to any third party for) any Content that you create, transmit or display while using the Services and for the consequences of your actions (including any loss or damage which Google may suffer) by doing so.
+
+9. Proprietary rights
+
+    9.1 You acknowledge and agree that Google (or Google’s licensors) own all legal right, title and interest in and to the Services, including any intellectual property rights which subsist in the Services (whether those rights happen to be registered or not, and wherever in the world those rights may exist). You further acknowledge that the Services may contain information which is designated confidential by Google and that you shall not disclose such information without Google’s prior written consent.
+
+    9.2 Unless you have agreed otherwise in writing with Google, nothing in the Terms gives you a right to use any of Google’s trade names, trade marks, service marks, logos, domain names, and other distinctive brand features.
+
+    9.3 If you have been given an explicit right to use any of these brand features in a separate written agreement with Google, then you agree that your use of such features shall be in compliance with that agreement, any applicable provisions of the Terms, and Google's brand feature use guidelines as updated from time to time. These guidelines can be viewed online at http://www.google.com/permissions/guidelines.html (or such other URL as Google may provide for this purpose from time to time).
+
+    9.4 Other than the limited license set forth in Section 11, Google acknowledges and agrees that it obtains no right, title or interest from you (or your licensors) under these Terms in or to any Content that you submit, post, transmit or display on, or through, the Services, including any intellectual property rights which subsist in that Content (whether those rights happen to be registered or not, and wherever in the world those rights may exist). Unless you have agreed otherwise in writing with Google, you agree that you are responsible for protecting and enforcing those rights and that Google has no obligation to do so on your behalf.
+
+    9.5 You agree that you shall not remove, obscure, or alter any proprietary rights notices (including copyright and trade mark notices) which may be affixed to or contained within the Services.
+
+    9.6 Unless you have been expressly authorized to do so in writing by Google, you agree that in using the Services, you will not use any trade mark, service mark, trade name, logo of any company or organization in a way that is likely or intended to cause confusion about the owner or authorized user of such marks, names or logos.
+
+10. License from Google
+
+    10.1 Google gives you a personal, worldwide, royalty-free, non-assignable and non-exclusive licence to use the software provided to you by Google as part of the Services as provided to you by Google (referred to as the “Software” below). This licence is for the sole purpose of enabling you to use and enjoy the benefit of the Services as provided by Google, in the manner permitted by the Terms.
+
+    10.2 You may not (and you may not permit anyone else to) copy, modify, create a derivative work of, reverse engineer, decompile or otherwise attempt to extract the source code of the Software or any part thereof, unless this is expressly permitted or required by law, or unless you have been specifically told that you may do so by Google, in writing.
+
+    10.3 Unless Google has given you specific written permission to do so, you may not assign (or grant a sub-licence of) your rights to use the Software, grant a security interest in or over your rights to use the Software, or otherwise transfer any part of your rights to use the Software.
+
+11. Content licence from you
+
+    11.1 You retain copyright and any other rights you already hold in Content which you submit, post or display on or through, the Services. By submitting, posting or displaying the content you give Google a perpetual, irrevocable, worldwide, royalty-free, and non-exclusive licence to reproduce, adapt, modify, translate, publish, publicly perform, publicly display and distribute any Content which you submit, post or display on or through, the Services. This licence is for the sole purpose of enabling Google to display, distribute and promote the Services and may be revoked for certain Services as defined in the Additional Terms of those Services.
+
+    11.2 You agree that this licence includes a right for Google to make such Content available to other companies, organizations or individuals with whom Google has relationships for the provision of syndicated services, and to use such Content in connection with the provision of those services.
+
+    11.3 You understand that Google, in performing the required technical steps to provide the Services to our users, may (a) transmit or distribute your Content over various public networks and in various media; and (b) make such changes to your Content as are necessary to conform and adapt that Content to the technical requirements of connecting networks, devices, services or media. You agree that this licence shall permit Google to take these actions.
+
+    11.4 You confirm and warrant to Google that you have all the rights, power and authority necessary to grant the above licence.
+
+12. Software updates
+
+    12.1 The Software which you use may automatically download and install updates from time to time from Google. These updates are designed to improve, enhance and further develop the Services and may take the form of bug fixes, enhanced functions, new software modules and completely new versions. You agree to receive such updates (and permit Google to deliver these to you) as part of your use of the Services.
+
+13. Ending your relationship with Google
+
+    13.1 The Terms will continue to apply until terminated by either you or Google as set out below.
+
+    13.2 If you want to terminate your legal agreement with Google, you may do so by (a) notifying Google at any time and (b) closing your accounts for all of the Services which you use, where Google has made this option available to you. Your notice should be sent, in writing, to Google’s address which is set out at the beginning of these Terms.
+
+    13.3 Google may at any time, terminate its legal agreement with you if:
+
+        (A) you have breached any provision of the Terms (or have acted in manner which clearly shows that you do not intend to, or are unable to comply with the provisions of the Terms); or
+
+        (B) Google is required to do so by law (for example, where the provision of the Services to you is, or becomes, unlawful); or
+
+        (C) the partner with whom Google offered the Services to you has terminated its relationship with Google or ceased to offer the Services to you; or
+
+        (D) Google is transitioning to no longer providing the Services to users in the country in which you are resident or from which you use the service; or
+
+        (E) the provision of the Services to you by Google is, in Google’s opinion, no longer commercially viable.
+
+    13.4 Nothing in this Section shall affect Google’s rights regarding provision of Services under Section 4 of the Terms.
+
+    13.5 When these Terms come to an end, all of the legal rights, obligations and liabilities that you and Google have benefited from, been subject to (or which have accrued over time whilst the Terms have been in force) or which are expressed to continue indefinitely, shall be unaffected by this cessation, and the provisions of paragraph 20.7 shall continue to apply to such rights, obligations and liabilities indefinitely.
+
+14. EXCLUSION OF WARRANTIES
+
+    14.1 NOTHING IN THESE TERMS, INCLUDING SECTIONS 14 AND 15, SHALL EXCLUDE OR LIMIT GOOGLE’S WARRANTY OR LIABILITY FOR LOSSES WHICH MAY NOT BE LAWFULLY EXCLUDED OR LIMITED BY APPLICABLE LAW. SOME JURISDICTIONS DO NOT ALLOW THE EXCLUSION OF CERTAIN WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OR THE LIMITATION OR EXCLUSION OF LIABILITY FOR LOSS OR DAMAGE CAUSED BY NEGLIGENCE, BREACH OF CONTRACT OR BREACH OF IMPLIED TERMS, OR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES. ACCORDINGLY, ONLY THE LIMITATIONS WHICH ARE LAWFUL IN YOUR JURISDICTION WILL APPLY TO YOU AND OUR LIABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW.
+
+    14.2 YOU EXPRESSLY UNDERSTAND AND AGREE THAT YOUR USE OF THE SERVICES IS AT YOUR SOLE RISK AND THAT THE SERVICES ARE PROVIDED "AS IS" AND “AS AVAILABLE.”
+
+    14.3 IN PARTICULAR, GOOGLE, ITS SUBSIDIARIES AND AFFILIATES, AND ITS LICENSORS DO NOT REPRESENT OR WARRANT TO YOU THAT:
+
+        (A) YOUR USE OF THE SERVICES WILL MEET YOUR REQUIREMENTS,
+
+        (B) YOUR USE OF THE SERVICES WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, TIMELY, SECURE OR FREE FROM ERROR,
+
+        (C) ANY INFORMATION OBTAINED BY YOU AS A RESULT OF YOUR USE OF THE SERVICES WILL BE ACCURATE OR RELIABLE, AND
+
+        (D) THAT DEFECTS IN THE OPERATION OR FUNCTIONALITY OF ANY SOFTWARE PROVIDED TO YOU AS PART OF THE SERVICES WILL BE CORRECTED.
+
+    14.4 ANY MATERIAL DOWNLOADED OR OTHERWISE OBTAINED THROUGH THE USE OF THE SERVICES IS DONE AT YOUR OWN DISCRETION AND RISK AND THAT YOU WILL BE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DAMAGE TO YOUR COMPUTER SYSTEM OR OTHER DEVICE OR LOSS OF DATA THAT RESULTS FROM THE DOWNLOAD OF ANY SUCH MATERIAL.
+
+    14.5 NO ADVICE OR INFORMATION, WHETHER ORAL OR WRITTEN, OBTAINED BY YOU FROM GOOGLE OR THROUGH OR FROM THE SERVICES SHALL CREATE ANY WARRANTY NOT EXPRESSLY STATED IN THE TERMS.
+
+    14.6 GOOGLE FURTHER EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES AND CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES AND CONDITIONS OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NON-INFRINGEMENT.
+
+15. LIMITATION OF LIABILITY
+
+    15.1 SUBJECT TO OVERALL PROVISION IN PARAGRAPH 14.1 ABOVE, YOU EXPRESSLY UNDERSTAND AND AGREE THAT GOOGLE, ITS SUBSIDIARIES AND AFFILIATES, AND ITS LICENSORS SHALL NOT BE LIABLE TO YOU FOR:
+
+        (A) ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL CONSEQUENTIAL OR EXEMPLARY DAMAGES WHICH MAY BE INCURRED BY YOU, HOWEVER CAUSED AND UNDER ANY THEORY OF LIABILITY.. THIS SHALL INCLUDE, BUT NOT BE LIMITED TO, ANY LOSS OF PROFIT (WHETHER INCURRED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY), ANY LOSS OF GOODWILL OR BUSINESS REPUTATION, ANY LOSS OF DATA SUFFERED, COST OF PROCUREMENT OF SUBSTITUTE GOODS OR SERVICES, OR OTHER INTANGIBLE LOSS;
+
+        (B) ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE WHICH MAY BE INCURRED BY YOU, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LOSS OR DAMAGE AS A RESULT OF:
+
+            (I) ANY RELIANCE PLACED BY YOU ON THE COMPLETENESS, ACCURACY OR EXISTENCE OF ANY ADVERTISING, OR AS A RESULT OF ANY RELATIONSHIP OR TRANSACTION BETWEEN YOU AND ANY ADVERTISER OR SPONSOR WHOSE ADVERTISING APPEARS ON THE SERVICES;
+
+            (II) ANY CHANGES WHICH GOOGLE MAY MAKE TO THE SERVICES, OR FOR ANY PERMANENT OR TEMPORARY CESSATION IN THE PROVISION OF THE SERVICES (OR ANY FEATURES WITHIN THE SERVICES);
+
+            (III) THE DELETION OF, CORRUPTION OF, OR FAILURE TO STORE, ANY CONTENT AND OTHER COMMUNICATIONS DATA MAINTAINED OR TRANSMITTED BY OR THROUGH YOUR USE OF THE SERVICES;
+
+            (III) YOUR FAILURE TO PROVIDE GOOGLE WITH ACCURATE ACCOUNT INFORMATION;
+
+            (IV) YOUR FAILURE TO KEEP YOUR PASSWORD OR ACCOUNT DETAILS SECURE AND CONFIDENTIAL;
+
+    15.2 THE LIMITATIONS ON GOOGLE’S LIABILITY TO YOU IN PARAGRAPH 15.1 ABOVE SHALL APPLY WHETHER OR NOT GOOGLE HAS BEEN ADVISED OF OR SHOULD HAVE BEEN AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SUCH LOSSES ARISING.
+
+16. Copyright and trade mark policies
+
+    16.1 It is Google’s policy to respond to notices of alleged copyright infringement that comply with applicable international intellectual property law (including, in the United States, the Digital Millennium Copyright Act) and to terminating the accounts of repeat infringers. Details of Google’s policy can be found at http://www.google.com/dmca.html.
+
+    16.2 Google operates a trade mark complaints procedure in respect of Google’s advertising business, details of which can be found at http://www.google.com/tm_complaint.html.
+
+17. Advertisements
+
+    17.1 Some of the Services are supported by advertising revenue and may display advertisements and promotions. These advertisements may be targeted to the content of information stored on the Services, queries made through the Services or other information.
+
+    17.2 The manner, mode and extent of advertising by Google on the Services are subject to change without specific notice to you.
+
+    17.3 In consideration for Google granting you access to and use of the Services, you agree that Google may place such advertising on the Services.
+
+18. Other content
+
+    18.1 The Services may include hyperlinks to other web sites or content or resources. Google may have no control over any web sites or resources which are provided by companies or persons other than Google.
+
+    18.2 You acknowledge and agree that Google is not responsible for the availability of any such external sites or resources, and does not endorse any advertising, products or other materials on or available from such web sites or resources.
+
+    18.3 You acknowledge and agree that Google is not liable for any loss or damage which may be incurred by you as a result of the availability of those external sites or resources, or as a result of any reliance placed by you on the completeness, accuracy or existence of any advertising, products or other materials on, or available from, such web sites or resources.
+
+19. Changes to the Terms
+
+    19.1 Google may make changes to the Universal Terms or Additional Terms from time to time. When these changes are made, Google will make a new copy of the Universal Terms available at http://www.google.com/accounts/TOS?hl=en and any new Additional Terms will be made available to you from within, or through, the affected Services.
+
+    19.2 You understand and agree that if you use the Services after the date on which the Universal Terms or Additional Terms have changed, Google will treat your use as acceptance of the updated Universal Terms or Additional Terms.
+
+20. General legal terms
+
+    20.1 Sometimes when you use the Services, you may (as a result of, or through your use of the Services) use a service or download a piece of software, or purchase goods, which are provided by another person or company. Your use of these other services, software or goods may be subject to separate terms between you and the company or person concerned. If so, the Terms do not affect your legal relationship with these other companies or individuals.
+
+    20.2 The Terms constitute the whole legal agreement between you and Google and govern your use of the Services (but excluding any services which Google may provide to you under a separate written agreement), and completely replace any prior agreements between you and Google in relation to the Services.
+
+    20.3 You agree that Google may provide you with notices, including those regarding changes to the Terms, by email, regular mail, or postings on the Services.
+
+    20.4 You agree that if Google does not exercise or enforce any legal right or remedy which is contained in the Terms (or which Google has the benefit of under any applicable law), this will not be taken to be a formal waiver of Google’s rights and that those rights or remedies will still be available to Google.
+
+    20.5 If any court of law, having the jurisdiction to decide on this matter, rules that any provision of these Terms is invalid, then that provision will be removed from the Terms without affecting the rest of the Terms. The remaining provisions of the Terms will continue to be valid and enforceable.
+
+    20.6 You acknowledge and agree that each member of the group of companies of which Google is the parent shall be third party beneficiaries to the Terms and that such other companies shall be entitled to directly enforce, and rely upon, any provision of the Terms which confers a benefit on (or rights in favor of) them. Other than this, no other person or company shall be third party beneficiaries to the Terms.
+
+    20.7 The Terms, and your relationship with Google under the Terms, shall be governed by the laws of the State of California without regard to its conflict of laws provisions. You and Google agree to submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts located within the county of Santa Clara, California to resolve any legal matter arising from the Terms. Notwithstanding this, you agree that Google shall still be allowed to apply for injunctive remedies (or an equivalent type of urgent legal relief) in any jurisdiction.
+
+April 16, 2007
+</blockquote>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2009-12-31-password-safe-agreement.html b/_posts/2009-12-31-password-safe-agreement.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..ad54a11d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-12-31-password-safe-agreement.html
@@ -0,0 +1,208 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Password safe agreement
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- License agreements
+layout: post
+---
+Below is the license associated with the program <a title="Password safe" href="http://passwordsafe.sourceforge.net/" target="_blank">password safe</a>. This nifty program allows saving all of your passwords in one convenient location. Then inputting one password allows access to all of your others. This allows me to have very secure passwords for banks and other investment accounts while not having to actually remember them. 
+
+
+<blockquote>Artistic License 2.0
+
+Copyright (c) 2000-2006, The Perl Foundation.
+
+Everyone is permitted to copy and distribute verbatim copies of this
+license document, but changing it is not allowed.
+
+Preamble
+--------
+This license establishes the terms under which a given free software
+Package may be copied, modified, distributed, and/or
+redistributed. The intent is that the Copyright Holder maintains some
+artistic control over the development of that Package while still
+keeping the Package available as open source and free software.
+
+You are always permitted to make arrangements wholly outside of this
+license directly with the Copyright Holder of a given Package. If the
+terms of this license do not permit the full use that you propose to
+make of the Package, you should contact the Copyright Holder and seek
+a different licensing arrangement.
+
+Definitions
+-----------
+"Copyright Holder" means the individual(s) or organization(s) named
+in the copyright notice for the entire Package.
+
+"Contributor" means any party that has contributed code or other
+material to the Package, in accordance with the Copyright Holder's
+procedures.
+
+"You" and "your" means any person who would like to copy, distribute,
+or modify the Package.
+
+"Package" means the collection of files distributed by the Copyright
+Holder, and derivatives of that collection and/or of those files. A
+given Package may consist of either the Standard Version, or a
+Modified Version.
+
+"Distribute" means providing a copy of the Package or making it
+accessible to anyone else, or in the case of a company or
+organization, to others outside of your company or organization.
+
+"Distributor Fee" means any fee that you charge for Distributing this
+Package or providing support for this Package to another party. It
+does not mean licensing fees.
+
+"Standard Version" refers to the Package if it has not been modified,
+or has been modified only in ways explicitly requested by the
+Copyright Holder.
+
+"Modified Version" means the Package, if it has been changed, and such
+changes were not explicitly requested by the Copyright Holder.
+
+"Original License" means this Artistic License as Distributed with the
+Standard Version of the Package, in its current version or as it may
+be modified by The Perl Foundation in the future.
+
+"Source" form means the source code, documentation source, and
+configuration files for the Package.
+
+"Compiled" form means the compiled bytecode, object code, binary, or
+any other form resulting from mechanical transformation or translation
+of the Source form.
+
+Permission for Use and Modification Without Distribution
+--------------------------------------------------------
+
+(1) You are permitted to use the Standard Version and create and use
+Modified Versions for any purpose without restriction, provided that
+you do not Distribute the Modified Version.
+
+Permissions for Redistribution of the Standard Version
+------------------------------------------------------
+
+(2) You may Distribute verbatim copies of the Source form of the
+Standard Version of this Package in any medium without restriction,
+either gratis or for a Distributor Fee, provided that you duplicate
+all of the original copyright notices and associated disclaimers. At
+your discretion, such verbatim copies may or may not include a
+Compiled form of the Package.
+
+(3) You may apply any bug fixes, portability changes, and other
+modifications made available from the Copyright Holder. The resulting
+Package will still be considered the Standard Version, and as such
+will be subject to the Original License.
+
+Distribution of Modified Versions of the Package as Source
+----------------------------------------------------------
+(4) You may Distribute your Modified Version as Source (either gratis
+or for a Distributor Fee, and with or without a Compiled form of the
+Modified Version) provided that you clearly document how it differs
+from the Standard Version, including, but not limited to, documenting
+any non-standard features, executables, or modules, and provided that
+you do at least ONE of the following:
+
+(a) make the Modified Version available to the Copyright Holder of
+the Standard Version, under the Original License, so that the
+Copyright Holder may include your modifications in the Standard
+Version.
+(b) ensure that installation of your Modified Version does not
+prevent the user installing or running the Standard Version. In
+addition, the Modified Version must bear a name that is different
+from the name of the Standard Version.
+(c) allow anyone who receives a copy of the Modified Version to make
+the Source form of the Modified Version available to others under
+(i) the Original License or
+(ii) a license that permits the licensee to freely copy, modify and
+redistribute the Modified Version using the same licensing terms
+that  apply to the copy that the licensee received, and requires
+that the Source form of the Modified Version, and of any works
+derived from it, be made freely available in that license fees are
+prohibited but Distributor Fees are allowed.
+
+Distribution of Compiled Forms of the Standard Version or Modified
+------------------------------------------------------------------
+Versions without the Source
+---------------------------
+(5) You may Distribute Compiled forms of the Standard Version without
+the Source, provided that you include complete instructions on how to
+get the Source of the Standard Version. Such instructions must be
+valid at the time of your distribution. If these instructions, at any
+time while you are carrying out such distribution, become invalid, you
+must provide new instructions on demand or cease further
+distribution. If you provide valid instructions or cease distribution
+within thirty days after you become aware that the instructions are
+invalid, then you do not forfeit any of your rights under this
+license.
+
+(6) You may Distribute a Modified Version in Compiled form without the
+Source, provided that you comply with Section 4 with respect to the
+Source of the Modified Version.
+
+Aggregating or Linking the Package
+----------------------------------
+(7) You may aggregate the Package (either the Standard Version or
+Modified Version) with other packages and Distribute the resulting
+aggregation provided that you do not charge a licensing fee for the
+Package. Distributor Fees are permitted, and licensing fees for other
+components in the aggregation are permitted. The terms of this license
+apply to the use and Distribution of the Standard or Modified Versions
+as included in the aggregation.
+
+(8) You are permitted to link Modified and Standard Versions with
+other works, to embed the Package in a larger work of your own, or to
+build stand-alone binary or bytecode versions of applications that
+include the Package, and Distribute the result without restriction,
+provided the result does not expose a direct interface to the
+Package.
+
+Items That are Not Considered Part of a Modified Version
+--------------------------------------------------------
+(9) Works (including, but not limited to, modules and scripts) that
+merely extend or make use of the Package, do not, by themselves, cause
+the Package to be a Modified Version. In addition, such works are not
+considered parts of the Package itself, and are not subject to the
+terms of this license.
+
+General Provisions
+------------------
+(10) Any use, modification, and distribution of the Standard or
+Modified Versions is governed by this Artistic License. By using,
+modifying or distributing the Package, you accept this license. Do not
+use, modify, or distribute the Package, if you do not accept this
+license.
+
+(11) If your Modified Version has been derived from a Modified Version
+made by someone other than you, you are nevertheless required to
+ensure that your Modified Version complies with the requirements of
+this license.
+
+(12) This license does not grant you the right to use any trademark,
+service mark, tradename, or logo of the Copyright Holder.
+
+(13) This license includes the non-exclusive, worldwide,
+free-of-charge patent license to make, have made, use, offer to sell,
+sell, import and otherwise transfer the Package with respect to any
+patent claims licensable by the Copyright Holder that are necessarily
+infringed by the Package. If you institute patent litigation
+(including a cross-claim or counterclaim) against any party alleging
+that the Package constitutes direct or contributory patent
+infringement, then this Artistic License to you shall terminate on the
+date that such litigation is filed.
+
+(14) Disclaimer of Warranty: THE PACKAGE IS PROVIDED BY THE COPYRIGHT
+HOLDER AND CONTRIBUTORS "AS IS' AND WITHOUT ANY EXPRESS OR
+IMPLIED WARRANTIES. THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, OR NON-INFRINGEMENT ARE
+DISCLAIMED TO THE EXTENT PERMITTED BY YOUR LOCAL LAW. UNLESS
+REQUIRED BY LAW, NO COPYRIGHT HOLDER OR CONTRIBUTOR WILL BE
+LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL
+DAMAGES ARISING IN ANY WAY OUT OF THE USE OF THE PACKAGE, EVEN
+IF ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGE.
+
+The End</blockquote>
diff --git a/_posts/2009-12-31-weekly-flu-update.html b/_posts/2009-12-31-weekly-flu-update.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..cce8c96f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2009-12-31-weekly-flu-update.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Weekly flu update
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- H1N1 flu
+layout: post
+---
+The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has provided its week 50 update (week ending Dec 19, 2009). Current link is <a title="CDC weekly" href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/" target="_blank">here</a> and the permanent link is <a title="CDC week 50 2009 flu update " href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2009-2010/weekly50.htm" target="_blank">here</a> (current link will be incorrect once week 51 update is available at which point the permanent link will be correct). The overall influenza trend is still decreasing and is almost entirely H1N1. <a title="Google flu trends" href="http://www.google.org/flutrends/us/" target="_blank">Google echoes this trend</a>. I am still waiting to see if a second outbreak of non-H1N1 will occur.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-02-h1n1-vaccine-recall.html b/_posts/2010-01-02-h1n1-vaccine-recall.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..8a8a1a2c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-02-h1n1-vaccine-recall.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: H1N1 vaccine recall
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- H1N1 flu
+layout: post
+---
+On December 18, 2009 some lots of the H1N1 vaccine were recalled. An <a title="Sanofi H1N1 recall faq" href="http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/vaccination/sanofi_parents_qa.htm" target="_blank">faq</a> is available at the CDC, but the gist is that the recall is due to a loss of efficacy of certain lots of the H1N1 vaccine produced by <a title="Sanofi Pasteur" href="http://www.sanofipasteur.com/" target="_blank">Sanofi Pasteur</a> for children aged 6-35 months. The CDC advice to parents is that if your child got vaccinated using a vial from these recalled lots your child will be adequately immunized. This is true even if both shots were from the recalled lots since the efficacy was just barely below the desired threshold. Having worked closely with quality control in the past, I believe this conclusion. Control thresholds such as efficacy are defined with a margin so that the true efficacy threshold is much lower than the control threshold. It does remind me though that my daughter got her first H1N1 vaccine and it has been 28 days since her first so she is eligible to get her second.
+
+On a slightly different note, I'm disappointed by the lack of immediate information on the Sanofi Pasteur website relating to the recall. Under press releases on the homepage, I see a press release from Dec 16 and the next from Dec 23, neither relating to the recall. I would expect a company that is providing vaccine to the US population to be very upfront about a recall.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-03-google-help-forum-terms-of-servic.html b/_posts/2010-01-03-google-help-forum-terms-of-servic.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..10b4fe80
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-03-google-help-forum-terms-of-servic.html
@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Google help forum terms of service
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- License agreements
+layout: post
+---
+Seriously, I need to sign a term of service to get on a help forum???? Aren't I provided free testing service by reporting issues or responding to them?
+
+<blockquote>Google Help Forum Terms of Service
+
+Welcome to Google Help Forum! Before you begin using Google Help Forum, you must read and agree to these Google Help Forum Terms of Service ("Terms of Service") and the following terms and conditions and policies, including any future amendments (collectively, the "Agreement"):
+
+    * Google Terms of Service - Google's general terms and conditions (http://www.google.com/terms_of_service.html)
+    * Google Privacy Policy - How we maintain and protect your personal information in Google Help Forum (http://www.google.com/privacy.html)
+    * Google Help Forum Posting Guidelines - How we promote the exchange of information in the community. (http://www.google.com/support/bin/static.py?page=tos_forum.html)
+
+Although we may attempt to notify you when major changes are made to these Terms of Service, you should periodically review the most up-to-date version at http://www.google.com/support/forum/tos. Google may, in its sole discretion, modify or revise these Terms of Service and policies at any time, and you agree to be bound by such modifications or revisions. If you do not accept and abide by this Agreement, you may not use Google Help Forum. In the event of an inconsistency between the Google Help Forum Terms of Service and either Google's general Terms of Service http://www.google.com/intl/en/terms_of_service.html) or the Google Privacy Policy (http://www.google.com/privacy.html), the Google Help Forum Terms of Service shall control. Nothing in this Agreement shall be deemed to confer any third-party rights or benefits.
+
+1. Description of Service. Google Help Forum is an online community where Google users ask and answer questions on a variety of topics. You will be responsible for all activities occurring under your username and for keeping your password secure. You understand and agree that Google Help Forum is provided to you on an AS IS and AS AVAILABLE basis. Google disclaims all responsibility and liability for the availability, timeliness, security or reliability of Google Help Forum or content within Google Help Forum. Google also reserves the right to modify, suspend or discontinue Google Help Forum with or without notice at any time and without any liability to you.
+
+You must be at least thirteen (13) years of age to use Google Help Forum. Google reserves the right to refuse service to anyone at any time without notice for any reason.
+
+2. Proper Use. You agree that you are responsible for your own use of Google Help Forum, for any posts you make, and for any consequences thereof. You agree that you will use Google Help Forum in compliance with all applicable local, state, national, and international laws, rules and regulations, including any laws regarding the transmission of technical data exported from your country of residence and all United States export control laws.
+
+You agree to abide by the Google Help Forum Posting Guidelines (http://www.google.com/support/bin/static.py?page=tos_forum.html) and the rules and restrictions therein. Google may, in its sole discretion, modify or revise the Google Help Forum Posting Guidelines at any time, and you agree to be bound by such modifications or revisions.
+
+Violation of any of the foregoing, including the Google Help Forum Posting Guidelines (http://www.google.com/support/bin/static.py?page=tos_forum.html), may result in immediate termination of this Agreement, and may subject you to state and federal penalties and other legal consequences. Google reserves the right, but shall have no obligation, to investigate your use of Google Help Forum in order to (a) determine whether a violation of the Agreement has occurred or (b) comply with any applicable law, regulation, legal process or governmental request.
+
+Much of the content of Google Help Forum -- including the contents of specific postings -- is provided by and is the responsibility of the person or people who made such postings. Google does not actively monitor the content of Google Help Forum, and takes no responsibility for such content. Instead, Google merely provides access to such content as a service to you.
+
+By its very nature, Google Help Forum may carry offensive, harmful, inaccurate or otherwise inappropriate material, or in some cases, postings that have been mislabeled or are otherwise deceptive. We expect that you will use caution and common sense and exercise proper judgment when using Google Help Forum.
+
+Google does not endorse, support, represent or guarantee the truthfulness, accuracy, or reliability of any communications posted via Google Help Forum or endorse any opinions expressed via Google Help Forum. You acknowledge that any reliance on material posted via Google Help Forum will be at your own risk.
+
+Participants in Google Help Forum only have moderation privileges when logged into an account with such privileges. It is within Google's sole discretion to grant users moderation privileges. Such individuals may not perform moderation functions when utilizing other accounts, and in no instance is Google responsible for the activities of these users.
+
+3. Privacy. As a condition of using Google Help Forum, you agree to the terms of the Google Privacy Policy (http://www.google.com/privacy.html), which may be updated from time to time, as expressed in the most recent version that exists at the time of your use. You agree that Google may access or disclose your personal information, including the content of your communications, if Google is required to do so in order to comply with any valid legal process or governmental request (such as a search warrant, subpoena, statute, or court order), or as otherwise provided in these Terms of Service and the general Google Privacy Policy. Personal information collected by Google may be stored and processed in the United States or any other country in which Google Inc. or its agents maintain facilities. By using Google Help Forum, you consent to any such transfer of information outside of your country.
+
+4. General Practices Regarding Use and Storage. You agree that Google has no responsibility or liability for the deletion of, or the failure to store or to transmit, any content and other communications maintained by Google Help Forum. Google retains the right to create limits on use and storage at our sole discretion at any time with or without notice.
+
+5. Content of Google Help Forum. You understand that all information (such as data files, written text, computer software, music, audio files or other sounds, photographs, videos, other images, or profile information) which you may have access to as part of, or through your use of, Google Help Forum are the sole responsibility of the person from which such content originated. All such information is referred to below as the "Content". Google takes no responsibility for third-party Content (including, without limitation, any viruses or other disabling features), nor does Google have any obligation to monitor such third-party Content. Google reserves the right at all times to remove or refuse to distribute any Content on Google Help Forum, such as Content which violates the terms of this Agreement. Google also reserves the right to access, read, preserve, and disclose any information as it reasonably believes is necessary to (a) satisfy any applicable law, regulation, legal process or governmental request, (b) enforce this Agreement, including investigation of potential violations hereof, (c) detect, prevent, or otherwise address fraud, security or technical issues, (d) respond to user support requests, or (e) protect the rights, property or safety of Google, its users and the public. Google will not be responsible or liable for the exercise or non-exercise of its rights under this Agreement.
+
+6. Intellectual Property Rights. Google's Intellectual Property Rights. You acknowledge that Google owns all right, title and interest in and to Google Help Forum, including all intellectual property rights (the "Google Rights"). Google Rights are protected by U.S. and international intellectual property laws. Accordingly, you agree that you will not copy, reproduce, alter, modify, or create derivative works from Google Help Forum. You also agree that you will not use any robot, spider, other automated device, or manual process to monitor or copy any Content from Google Help Forum. As described immediately below, Google Rights do not include third-party Content used as part of Google Help Forum, including the Content appearing on Google Help Forum.
+
+Your Intellectual Property Rights. Google claims no ownership or control over any Content submitted, posted or displayed by you on or through Google Help Forum. You or a third party licensor, as appropriate, retain all patent, trademark and copyright to any Content you submit, post or display on or through Google services and you are responsible for protecting those rights, as appropriate. By submitting, posting or displaying Content on or through Google services which are intended to be available to the members of the public, you grant Google a worldwide, non-exclusive, royalty-free license to reproduce, publish, modify, and distribute such Content on Google products and services for the purpose of displaying and distributing Google products and services. Google furthermore reserves the right to refuse to accept, post, display or transmit any Content in its sole discretion.
+
+You represent and warrant that you have all the rights, power and authority necessary to grant the rights granted herein to any Content submitted by you.
+
+7. No Resale of the Service. Unless expressly authorized in writing by Google, you agree not to reproduce, duplicate, copy, sell, trade, resell or exploit for any commercial purposes (a) any portion of Google Help Forum (b) use Google Help Forum, or (c) access to Google Help Forum.
+
+8. Representations and Warranties. You represent and warrant that (a) all of the information provided by you to Google to participate in Google Help Forum is correct and current; and (b) you have all necessary right, power and authority to enter into this Agreement and to perform the acts required of you hereunder.
+
+9. Termination; Suspension. Google may, in its sole discretion, at any time and for any reason, terminate Google Help Forum, terminate this Agreement, or suspend or terminate your account. In the event of termination, your account will be disabled and you may not be granted access to your account or any files or other content contained in your account although residual copies of information may remain in our system for some time for back-up purposes. Sections 2, 3, 5 - 7, and 9 - 13 of the Agreement, along with applicable provisions of the general Terms of Service (including the section regarding limitation of liability), shall survive expiration or termination.
+
+10. Indemnification. You agree to hold harmless and indemnify Google, and its subsidiaries, affiliates, officers, agents, and employees from and against any third-party claim arising from or in any way related to your use of Google Help Forum, including any liability or expense arising from all claims, losses, damages (actual and consequential), suits, judgments, litigation costs and attorneys' fees, of every kind and nature. In such a case, Google will provide you with written notice of such claim, suit or action.
+
+11. Copyright Information. It is our policy to respond to notices of alleged infringement that comply with the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. If you believe that your copyright has been infringed on Google Community Help, please refer to http://www.google.com/dmca.html for information on how to file or respond to a notice of infringement.
+
+12. Notices. You agree that Google may provide you with notices, including those regarding changes to the Agreement, by email, regular mail, or postings on Google services.
+
+13. Third Party Sites. Sometimes when you use Google Help Forum, you may access (as a result of, or through your use of Google Help Forum a third party web site or service. Your use of these web sites or services may be subject to separate terms between you and the company or person concerned. If so, this Agreement does not affect your legal relationship with these other companies or individuals, but your activities with third parties on Google Help Forum must still comply with this Agreement. Google is in no way responsible for the third party web site or the service, and its associated content, and does not endorse any content available through the third party web site or service.
+</blockquote>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-04-chase-auto-pay-terms.html b/_posts/2010-01-04-chase-auto-pay-terms.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..b560a3b7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-04-chase-auto-pay-terms.html
@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Chase auto-pay terms
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- License agreements
+layout: post
+---
+Another terms and conditions I won't read. This time to sign up for automatic payment of a credit card.
+
+<blockquote>AUTOPAY PROGRAM AUTHORIZATION FORM To complete your request for enrollment into the AutoPay program, please agree to the information below. To ensure proper withdrawal of your payment, please confirm you provided the proper routing and transit number from the bottom of your check on the Enroll Payment Account screen. To ensure that your AutoPay is processed successfully, you may want to consider overdraft protection, which is available at most financial institutions. For information about overdraft protection, please contact your bank. We will notify you by email when your AutoPay is established. Until then, please continue to make payments on your account as you normally do. If you have any questions, please call us at the toll-free number on the back of your card.
+
+Description of amounts to be withdrawn based on what you have chosen:
+
+The FULL AMOUNT DUE, as shown on the monthly statement in the box marked New Balance. The balance may range from $0 up to your credit line plus any charges over your credit line that are included in the New Balance.
+
+The AutoPay amount will never be more than the New Balance, or Minimum Payment Due, as applicable. However, it may be less because payments, returned purchases, and other credits can reduce the AutoPay amount, if they post to the account between the Closing Date and the date your payment is processed.
+
+For example:
+$1,000.00	New Balance, due on 1/15/XX
+-$100.00	Extra Payment 1/1/XX
+-$100.00 	Merchant Credit 1/1/XX
+$800.00 	AutoPay Amount 1/15/XX
+
+For some credit card products (e.g. Visa Signature/World MasterCard), your statement refers to your credit line as your "credit access line" or "revolving credit line/amount".
+
+Please carefully read the following and click on the Accept button to indicate that you have accepted the terms of the AutoPay agreement and have requested enrollment. Please enroll my credit card account in the AutoPay Program. I understand that my credit card payments will be deducted automatically from the designated account each month on my due date. The routing and transit number as well as the account number I provided on the Enroll Payment Account screen will be used to withdraw my monthly payment (the bank must be in the United States). I also understand that the amount of the payments may vary each month and that my monthly statement will be my only notice of the deducted AutoPay amount. Please print a copy of this agreement and keep it for your records.
+
+Rev. 12/09</blockquote>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-04-mars-spirit-dead.html b/_posts/2010-01-04-mars-spirit-dead.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..afe5063b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-04-mars-spirit-dead.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Mars Spirit dead?
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Mars
+layout: post
+---
+I am currently reading Roving Mars by Steve Squyres, a <a title="Steve Squyres" href="http://www.astro.cornell.edu/people/facstaff-detail.php?pers_id=112" target="_blank">professor of astronomy</a> at Cornell University. (In all honesty I am actually listening to the book on CD, which is a great way to pass the time driving around MN). So it is a timely coincidence that Mars Spirit is in the news. The original mission design for Mars Spirit called for a 3-month lifetime. After almost 6 years, it <a title="Mars spirit" href="http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/3217/end-road-nasas-mars-rover" target="_blank">appears</a> that Mars Spirit might finally end its mission. Its tragic fate? Getting stuck in the sand. Even in its precarious position, Spirit has made a new discovery finding sulfates within its sand trap. So please, raise a glass for Mars Spirit.
+
+<img class="alignnone" title="Mars Spirit" src="http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/files/imagecache/news/files/news/20100904_spirit_rover.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="300" />
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-05-reducing-drug-resistant-staph-infections.html b/_posts/2010-01-05-reducing-drug-resistant-staph-infections.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..58ffeaa8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-05-reducing-drug-resistant-staph-infections.html
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Reducing drug resistant staph infections
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Science
+layout: post
+---
+Methicillin-resistant <em>Staphylococcus aureus</em> infections are a health-care concern around the globe. In the U.S. the mortality rate for this infection is 6.3 (interval estimate 3.3-7.5) per 100,000 according to <a title="MRSA report" href="http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/298/15/1763" target="_blank">this report</a>. In addition, <a title="MRSA lancet report" href="http://www.thelancetstudent.com/2008/03/28/mrsa-a-growing-global-problem/" target="_blank">infections acquired in hospitals</a> increase hospital stay, require longer treatment and management, increase in infectious control demands. The puts a large financial burden on healths systems, e.g. it costs the <a title="UK's NHS" href="http://www.nhs.uk/" target="_blank">UK's NHS</a> ~1 billion [pounds] per annum. In the US this costs gets incorporated into the premiums that individuals and employers pay.
+
+Fortunately the <a title="Norway MRSA approach" href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091231/ap_on_re_us/when_drugs_stop_working_norway_s_answer" target="_blank">solution appears simple</a>:
+<ul>
+	<li>Prescribe fewer antibiotics.</li>
+	<li>MRSA patients are isolated and medical staff who test positive stay at home.</li>
+	<li>Track each individual case by strain and test anyone who has been in contact with an infected person.</li>
+</ul>
+The first point is key. Antibiotic-resistant infectious agents are selected for when people use antibiotics. If fewer people use antibiotics, then fewer resistant strains will exist making antibiotic use more effective. Unfortunately our current system over prescribes antibiotics. As an anecdote, I recently had my annual physical and during this physical my doctor prescribed an antibiotic for a cyst in my nostril telling me to use it as a precaution. I purchased the prescription and used it twice and now the cyst is basically gone. In this case the antibiotic was unnecessary.
+
+If this <a title="MRSA AP article" href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091231/ap_on_re_us/when_drugs_stop_working_norway_s_answer" target="_blank">AP article</a> is to be believed, Norway has put this system in place and is the most infection-free country in the world. Perhaps we should take a page out of their book.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-06-windows-service-pack-3.html b/_posts/2010-01-06-windows-service-pack-3.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..1a2d5123
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-06-windows-service-pack-3.html
@@ -0,0 +1,338 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Windows service pack 3
+meta: 
+  _oembed_a44cda5e37e98c02a1142d5b302a4a8a: "{{unknown}}"
+  _oembed_2fa324eaad10cccf33fd4aadd22b475c: "{{unknown}}"
+  _oembed_8283e29fcc078efe4c9ecdbe5b7842f2: "{{unknown}}"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- License agreements
+layout: post
+---
+(Edited on Jan 6, 2010 @ 8:24 - Somehow in my upgrading to wordpress 2.9.0 part of this post got lost. I went to the eula analyzer link and pasted the eula from there.)
+
+User agreement for Windows XP service pack 3. I tried out the suggestion on a previous post of an online eula analyzer. The results can be found <a title="Microsoft Windows XP service pack 3" href="http://www.spywareguide.com/analyze/go.php?key=fb7b481499db464a32bb7984fa29c840&amp;anmode=0" target="_blank">here</a>. One interesting output from this analysis is that the reading level of the analysis is beyond twelfth grade level under all 4 metrics the site uses. So how is a high school graduate supposed to agree to terms that he can't even read? I wonder if this has been tested in the legal system. The second interesting result is the analyzer found two reference to tracking or monitoring: one in section 5 and the other in section 9. So what if I do not agree with these terms? Apparently my only recourse is to not install the service pack. So Microsoft gets to make a poor operating system that I purchase. This OS needs to be updated to maintain maximum functionality and protection against exploits, so I am basically forced to agree to whatever terms they can dream up.
+<blockquote>SUPPLEMENTAL END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT FOR
+MICROSOFT SOFTWARE
+
+MICROSOFT WINDOWS XP SERVICE PACK 3
+
+PLEASE READ THIS SUPPLEMENTAL END-USER
+LICENSE AGREEMENT ('SUPPLEMENTAL EULA')
+CAREFULLY. BY INSTALLING OR USING THE
+SOFTWARE THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS SUPPLEMENTAL
+EULA, YOU AGREE TO THE TERMS OF THIS
+SUPPLEMENTAL EULA. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE, DO
+NOT INSTALL OR USE THE SOFTWARE AND, IF
+APPLICABLE, RETURN IT TO THE PLACE OF
+PURCHASE FOR A FULL REFUND.
+
+1. General
+
+If you acquired the accompanying Microsoft
+software from the manufacturer
+("Manufacturer") of the computer system or
+computer system component ('HARDWARE') with
+which you acquired the Microsoft software
+product(s) identified on the Certificate of
+Authenticity ("COA") affixed to the HARDWARE
+or on the associated product documentation,
+this Supplemental EULA is a legal agreement
+between you (either an individual or a single
+entity) and the Manufacturer.
+
+If you acquired the accompanying Microsoft
+software from a source other than the
+Manufacturer, this Supplemental EULA is a
+legal agreement between you (either an
+individual or a single entity) and Microsoft
+Corporation or one of its affiliates
+('Microsoft').
+
+The accompanying Microsoft software includes
+computer software and may include associated
+media, printed materials, 'online' or
+electronic documentation, and Internet-based
+services (collectively, the 'OS Components').
+The OS Components are provided to update,
+supplement, or replace existing functionality
+of Microsoft Windows XP Professional Edition
+or Microsoft Windows XP Home Edition (the 'OS
+Software'). Your use of the OS Components is
+subject to the terms and conditions of the
+end user license agreement (either from
+Microsoft or the Manufacturer) under which
+you have previously licensed the OS Software
+(the 'OS Software EULA') and this
+Supplemental EULA.
+Reference to tracking or monitoring.
+To the extent that any
+terms in this Supplemental EULA conflict with
+terms in the applicable OS Software EULA, the
+terms of this Supplemental EULA control.
+
+IF YOU DO NOT HAVE A VALIDLY LICENSED COPY
+OF THE OS SOFTWARE, YOU ARE NOT AUTHORIZED TO
+INSTALL, COPY OR OTHERWISE USE THE OS
+COMPONENTS AND YOU HAVE NO RIGHTS UNDER THIS
+SUPPLEMENTAL EULA.
+
+For purposes of this Supplemental EULA,
+references to 'Computer' mean 'Workstation
+Computer' or 'COMPUTER' as defined in the OS
+Software EULA.
+
+The following license terms describe
+additional terms for the OS Software as
+supplemented with the OS Components
+(collectively, 'SOFTWARE'). The changes
+include:
+
+* additional information about the
+validation functions of the Software, which
+determine whether the software is counterfeit,
+improperly licensed or a non-genuine Windows
+product; and
+
+* additional privacy disclosures about
+Internet-based services.
+Reference to tracking or monitoring.
+
+
+This list highlights some of the changes.
+The terms below govern your use of the
+SOFTWARE.
+
+2. MANDATORY ACTIVATION
+
+Activation associates the use of the
+SOFTWARE with a specific computer.During
+activation, the SOFTWARE will send
+information about the SOFTWARE and the
+Computer to Microsoft.This information
+includes the version, language and product
+key of the SOFTWARE, the Internet protocol
+address of the Computer, and information
+derived from the hardware configuration of
+the Computer.For more information, see
+http://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?Linkid=103743.
+By using the SOFTWARE, you consent to the
+transmission of this information.If properly
+licensed, you have the right to use the
+version of the SOFTWARE installed during the
+installation process up to a period of 30
+days permitted for activation.Unless the
+SOFTWARE is activated, you have no right to
+use the SOFTWARE after the time permitted for
+activation.This is to prevent its unlicensed
+use.You are not permitted to bypass or
+circumvent activation.If the Computer is
+connected to the Internet, the SOFTWARE may
+automatically connect to Microsoft for
+activation.You can also activate the
+SOFTWARE manually by Internet or telephone.
+If you do so, Internet and telephone service
+charges may apply.Some changes to your
+computer components or the SOFTWARE may
+require you to reactivate the SOFTWARE.The
+SOFTWARE will remind you to activate it until
+you do.
+
+3. VALIDATION
+
+The SOFTWARE may check periodically whether
+a properly licensed copy of the SOFTWARE is
+installed.Validation may be required for
+certain Microsoft software to be downloaded,
+installed or used.If you have a properly
+licensed copy of the SOFTWARE installed, you
+receive special benefits, see http://go.
+microsoft.com/fwlink/?linkid=39157. If the
+software detects that a properly licensed
+copy of the SOFTWARE is not installed, you
+will receive a notification and periodic
+reminders to install a properly licensed copy
+of the SOFTWARE.During or after a validation
+check, the SOFTWARE may send information
+about the SOFTWARE, the device and the
+results of the validation check to Microsoft.
+This information includes, for example, the
+version and product key of the SOFTWARE, any
+unauthorized changes made to the validation,
+licensing or activation functions of the
+SOFTWARE, any related malicious or
+unauthorized software found and the Internet
+protocol address of the device.Microsoft
+does not use the information to identify or
+contact you.By using the SOFTWARE, you
+consent to the transmission of this
+information.For more information about
+validation and what is sent during or after a
+validation check, see http://go.microsoft.
+com/fwlink/?Linkid=96551.
+
+4. INTERNET-BASED SERVICES.
+
+Microsoft provides Internet-based services
+with the SOFTWARE.It may change or cancel
+them at any time.
+
+4.1 Consent for Internet-Based Services.The
+software features described below in Section
+4.2 and in the Privacy Statement connect to
+Microsoft or service provider computer
+systems over the Internet.In some cases, you
+will not receive a separate notice when they
+connect.You may switch off these features or
+not use them.For more information about
+these features, see the Privacy Statement at
+http://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?Linkid=103743.
+By using these features, you consent to the
+transmission of this information.Microsoft
+does not use the information to identify or
+contact you.
+
+4.2 Computer Information.The following
+features use Internet protocols, which send
+to the appropriate systems computer
+information, such as your Internet protocol
+address, the type of operating system,
+browser and name and version of the software
+you are using, and the language code of the
+Computer where you installed the SOFTWARE.
+Microsoft uses this information to make the
+Internet-based services available to you.
+
+?? Plug and Play.You may connect new
+hardware to your Computer.Your Computer may
+not have the drivers needed to communicate
+with that hardware.If so, the update feature
+of the software can obtain the correct driver
+from Microsoft and install it on your
+Computer.An administrator can disable this
+update feature.
+
+?? Windows Update.To enable the proper
+functioning of the Windows Update service in
+the SOFTWARE (if you use it), updates or
+downloads to the Windows Update service will
+be required from time to time and downloaded
+and installed without further notice to you.
+
+?? Web Content Features.Under the SOFTWARE's
+default configuration, if you are connected
+to the Internet, several features of the
+SOFTWARE are enabled by default to retrieve
+content from Microsoft computer systems and
+display it to you.When you activate such a
+feature, it uses standard Internet protocols,
+which transmit the type of operating system,
+browser and language code of your Computer to
+the Microsoft computer system so that the
+content can be viewed properly from your
+Computer.These features only operate when
+you activate them, and you may choose to
+switch them off or not use them.Examples of
+these features include Windows Catalog,
+Search Assistant, and the Headlines and
+Search features of Help and Support Center.
+
+?? Digital Certificates.The SOFTWARE uses
+digital certificates based on the x.509
+standard.These digital certificates confirm
+the identity of Internet users sending x.509
+standard encrypted information.The software
+retrieves certificates and updates
+certificate revocation lists.These security
+features operate only when you use the
+Internet.
+
+?? Auto Root Update.The Auto Root Update
+feature updates the list of trusted
+certificate authorities.You can switch off
+the Auto Root Update feature.
+
+?? Windows Media Player.Some features of
+Windows Media Player automatically contact
+Microsoft computer systems if you use Windows
+Media Player or specific features of it:
+features that (A) check for new codecs if
+your Computer does not have the correct ones
+for content you attempt to play (this feature
+may be switched off), and (B) check for new
+versions of Windows Media Player (this
+feature will operate only when you are using
+Windows Media Player). The provisions in this
+paragraph do not apply to the KN and N
+versions of Microsoft Windows XP SP3 as they
+do not include Windows Media Player.
+
+?? Windows Media Digital Rights Management.
+Content providers are using the digital
+rights management technology for Windows
+Media contained in this SOFTWARE ('WM-DRM')
+to protect the integrity of their content
+("Secure Content") so that their intellectual
+property, including copyright, in such
+content is not misappropriated.Portions of
+this SOFTWARE and third party applications
+such as media players use WM-DRM to play
+Secure Content ('WM-DRM Software'). If the WM-
+DRM Software's security has been compromised,
+owners of Secure Content ("Secure Content
+Owners") may request that Microsoft revoke
+the WM-DRM Software's right to copy, display
+and/or play Secure Content.Revocation does
+not alter the WM-DRM Software's ability to
+play unprotected content.A list of revoked
+WM-DRM Software is sent to your Computer
+whenever you download a license for Secure
+Content from the Internet.Microsoft may, in
+conjunction with such license, also download
+revocation lists onto your Computer on behalf
+of Secure Content Owners.Secure Content
+Owners may also require you to upgrade some
+of the WM-DRM components in this SOFTWARE
+('WM-DRM Upgrades') before accessing their
+content.When you attempt to play such
+content, WM-DRM Software built by Microsoft
+will notify you that a WM-DRM Upgrade is
+required and then ask for your consent before
+the WM-DRM Upgrade is downloaded.WM-DRM
+Software built by third parties may do the
+same.If you decline the upgrade, you will
+not be able to access content that requires
+the WM-DRM Upgrade; however, you will still
+be able to access unprotected content and
+Secure Content that does not require the
+upgrade.WM-DRM features that access the
+Internet, such as acquiring new licenses
+and/or performing a required WM-DRM Upgrade,
+can be switched off.When these features are
+switched off, you will still be able to play
+Secure Content if you have a valid license
+for such content already stored on your
+Computer.The provisions in this paragraph do
+not apply to the KN and N versions of
+Microsoft Windows XP SP3 as they do not
+include WM-DRM.
+
+4.3 Use of Information.Microsoft may use
+the computer information to improve
+Microsoft's software and services.Microsoft
+may also share it with others, such as
+hardware and software vendors.They may use
+the information to improve how their products
+run with Microsoft software.
+
+4.4 Misuse of Internet-based Services.You
+may not use these services in any way that
+could harm them or impair anyone else's use
+of them.You may not use the services to try
+to gain unauthorized access to any service,
+data, account or network by any means.
+
+EULAID:XPSP3_RTM_UPD_UNF_EN </blockquote>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-11-because-the-grass-is-always-greener.html b/_posts/2010-01-11-because-the-grass-is-always-greener.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..e81f4864
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-11-because-the-grass-is-always-greener.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Because the grass is always greener
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+<a title="Internet browses" href="http://sixrevisions.com/tools/10-web-browsers-you-probably-havent-heard-of/" target="_blank">Here</a> is an article about 10 internet browsers you (probably) haven't heard of. I actually have heard of 1, Konqueror, although I haven't actually used it. I am pretty fickle with my internet browsers except that I avoid IE at all costs. A while back Opera was my choice since, at the time, it was blazingly fast. Now I'm mainly using Firefox due to its plug-ins, e.g. <a title="FireFTP" href="http://fireftp.mozdev.org/" target="_blank">FireFTP</a> and <a title="xmarks" href="http://www.xmarks.com/" target="_blank">Xmarks</a>. Last time I checked Xmarks did not work on Chrome or Safari, but it appears that it does now. I tried <a title="Chrome" href="http://www.google.com/chrome" target="_blank">Chrome</a> for a while, but I couldn't stand its lack of ability to open up a simple pdf within the browsers. I ended up always right-clicking on pdfs and clicking on the download icon at the bottom (the icon is fantastic, much better than Firefox's separate window). Has anybody tried any of these browsers (or others) and you think it is the best thing since sliced bread? If I had to choose one of the list based solely on the screenshot, I would definitely choose <a title="Lunascape" href="http://www.lunascape.tv/" target="_blank">Lunascape</a>.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Lunascape" src="http://images.sixrevisions.com/2010/01/16-03_lunascape.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="371" />
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-12-health-care-quality-versus-cost.html b/_posts/2010-01-12-health-care-quality-versus-cost.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..3597d177
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-12-health-care-quality-versus-cost.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Health care quality versus cost
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+As the healthcare debate rages on, I'm happy to see a statistical analysis of some basic health care information. Let's think about `health care quality' versus `health care cost.' On one hand, health care cost is a pretty easy number to arrive at since, after all, people track how much is spent on health care. On the other hand, health care quality is not so easy to define. <a title="Health care quality analysis" href="http://docs.google.com/View?id=dgzd4rk_256cx9zjg2j" target="_blank">This analysis</a>, which I originally found <a title="Post on health care quality" href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2010/01/more_on_health.html" target="_blank">here</a>, produces the plot seen below. The analysis does what I would do to determine a value for health care quality. It performs a principal components analysis on many health care variables, e.g. number of doctors, number of mri machines, etc. The first principal component score provides a measure of health care quality. It seems immediately clear from this figure that the US is wasting a lot of money relative to the health care it is actually providing. My only caveat here is that some basic measures were not included in the principal components analysis including life expectancy and infant mortality among others.<img class="aligncenter" title="Health care quality versus cost" src="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/mlm/std-pc1-vs-cost-gelman.png" alt="" width="480" height="480" />
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-12-vlc-terms.html b/_posts/2010-01-12-vlc-terms.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..0c6f1018
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-12-vlc-terms.html
@@ -0,0 +1,355 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: draft
+published: false
+title: VLC terms
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+
+
+<blockquote>                    GNU GENERAL PUBLIC LICENSE
+                       Version 2, June 1991
+
+ Copyright (C) 1989, 1991 Free Software Foundation, Inc.
+ 51 Franklin Street, Fifth Floor, Boston, MA  02110-1301, USA
+ Everyone is permitted to copy and distribute verbatim copies
+ of this license document, but changing it is not allowed.
+
+                            Preamble
+
+  The licenses for most software are designed to take away your
+freedom to share and change it.  By contrast, the GNU General Public
+License is intended to guarantee your freedom to share and change free
+software--to make sure the software is free for all its users.  This
+General Public License applies to most of the Free Software
+Foundation's software and to any other program whose authors commit to
+using it.  (Some other Free Software Foundation software is covered by
+the GNU Library General Public License instead.)  You can apply it to
+your programs, too.
+
+  When we speak of free software, we are referring to freedom, not
+price.  Our General Public Licenses are designed to make sure that you
+have the freedom to distribute copies of free software (and charge for
+this service if you wish), that you receive source code or can get it
+if you want it, that you can change the software or use pieces of it
+in new free programs; and that you know you can do these things.
+
+  To protect your rights, we need to make restrictions that forbid
+anyone to deny you these rights or to ask you to surrender the rights.
+These restrictions translate to certain responsibilities for you if you
+distribute copies of the software, or if you modify it.
+
+  For example, if you distribute copies of such a program, whether
+gratis or for a fee, you must give the recipients all the rights that
+you have.  You must make sure that they, too, receive or can get the
+source code.  And you must show them these terms so they know their
+rights.
+
+  We protect your rights with two steps: (1) copyright the software, and
+(2) offer you this license which gives you legal permission to copy,
+distribute and/or modify the software.
+
+  Also, for each author's protection and ours, we want to make certain
+that everyone understands that there is no warranty for this free
+software.  If the software is modified by someone else and passed on, we
+want its recipients to know that what they have is not the original, so
+that any problems introduced by others will not reflect on the original
+authors' reputations.
+
+  Finally, any free program is threatened constantly by software
+patents.  We wish to avoid the danger that redistributors of a free
+program will individually obtain patent licenses, in effect making the
+program proprietary.  To prevent this, we have made it clear that any
+patent must be licensed for everyone's free use or not licensed at all.
+
+  The precise terms and conditions for copying, distribution and
+modification follow.
+
+                    GNU GENERAL PUBLIC LICENSE
+   TERMS AND CONDITIONS FOR COPYING, DISTRIBUTION AND MODIFICATION
+
+  0. This License applies to any program or other work which contains
+a notice placed by the copyright holder saying it may be distributed
+under the terms of this General Public License.  The "Program", below,
+refers to any such program or work, and a "work based on the Program"
+means either the Program or any derivative work under copyright law:
+that is to say, a work containing the Program or a portion of it,
+either verbatim or with modifications and/or translated into another
+language.  (Hereinafter, translation is included without limitation in
+the term "modification".)  Each licensee is addressed as "you".
+
+Activities other than copying, distribution and modification are not
+covered by this License; they are outside its scope.  The act of
+running the Program is not restricted, and the output from the Program
+is covered only if its contents constitute a work based on the
+Program (independent of having been made by running the Program).
+Whether that is true depends on what the Program does.
+
+  1. You may copy and distribute verbatim copies of the Program's
+source code as you receive it, in any medium, provided that you
+conspicuously and appropriately publish on each copy an appropriate
+copyright notice and disclaimer of warranty; keep intact all the
+notices that refer to this License and to the absence of any warranty;
+and give any other recipients of the Program a copy of this License
+along with the Program.
+
+You may charge a fee for the physical act of transferring a copy, and
+you may at your option offer warranty protection in exchange for a fee.
+
+  2. You may modify your copy or copies of the Program or any portion
+of it, thus forming a work based on the Program, and copy and
+distribute such modifications or work under the terms of Section 1
+above, provided that you also meet all of these conditions:
+
+    a) You must cause the modified files to carry prominent notices
+    stating that you changed the files and the date of any change.
+
+    b) You must cause any work that you distribute or publish, that in
+    whole or in part contains or is derived from the Program or any
+    part thereof, to be licensed as a whole at no charge to all third
+    parties under the terms of this License.
+
+    c) If the modified program normally reads commands interactively
+    when run, you must cause it, when started running for such
+    interactive use in the most ordinary way, to print or display an
+    announcement including an appropriate copyright notice and a
+    notice that there is no warranty (or else, saying that you provide
+    a warranty) and that users may redistribute the program under
+    these conditions, and telling the user how to view a copy of this
+    License.  (Exception: if the Program itself is interactive but
+    does not normally print such an announcement, your work based on
+    the Program is not required to print an announcement.)
+
+These requirements apply to the modified work as a whole.  If
+identifiable sections of that work are not derived from the Program,
+and can be reasonably considered independent and separate works in
+themselves, then this License, and its terms, do not apply to those
+sections when you distribute them as separate works.  But when you
+distribute the same sections as part of a whole which is a work based
+on the Program, the distribution of the whole must be on the terms of
+this License, whose permissions for other licensees extend to the
+entire whole, and thus to each and every part regardless of who wrote it.
+
+Thus, it is not the intent of this section to claim rights or contest
+your rights to work written entirely by you; rather, the intent is to
+exercise the right to control the distribution of derivative or
+collective works based on the Program.
+
+In addition, mere aggregation of another work not based on the Program
+with the Program (or with a work based on the Program) on a volume of
+a storage or distribution medium does not bring the other work under
+the scope of this License.
+
+  3. You may copy and distribute the Program (or a work based on it,
+under Section 2) in object code or executable form under the terms of
+Sections 1 and 2 above provided that you also do one of the following:
+
+    a) Accompany it with the complete corresponding machine-readable
+    source code, which must be distributed under the terms of Sections
+    1 and 2 above on a medium customarily used for software interchange; or,
+
+    b) Accompany it with a written offer, valid for at least three
+    years, to give any third party, for a charge no more than your
+    cost of physically performing source distribution, a complete
+    machine-readable copy of the corresponding source code, to be
+    distributed under the terms of Sections 1 and 2 above on a medium
+    customarily used for software interchange; or,
+
+    c) Accompany it with the information you received as to the offer
+    to distribute corresponding source code.  (This alternative is
+    allowed only for noncommercial distribution and only if you
+    received the program in object code or executable form with such
+    an offer, in accord with Subsection b above.)
+
+The source code for a work means the preferred form of the work for
+making modifications to it.  For an executable work, complete source
+code means all the source code for all modules it contains, plus any
+associated interface definition files, plus the scripts used to
+control compilation and installation of the executable.  However, as a
+special exception, the source code distributed need not include
+anything that is normally distributed (in either source or binary
+form) with the major components (compiler, kernel, and so on) of the
+operating system on which the executable runs, unless that component
+itself accompanies the executable.
+
+If distribution of executable or object code is made by offering
+access to copy from a designated place, then offering equivalent
+access to copy the source code from the same place counts as
+distribution of the source code, even though third parties are not
+compelled to copy the source along with the object code.
+
+  4. You may not copy, modify, sublicense, or distribute the Program
+except as expressly provided under this License.  Any attempt
+otherwise to copy, modify, sublicense or distribute the Program is
+void, and will automatically terminate your rights under this License.
+However, parties who have received copies, or rights, from you under
+this License will not have their licenses terminated so long as such
+parties remain in full compliance.
+
+  5. You are not required to accept this License, since you have not
+signed it.  However, nothing else grants you permission to modify or
+distribute the Program or its derivative works.  These actions are
+prohibited by law if you do not accept this License.  Therefore, by
+modifying or distributing the Program (or any work based on the
+Program), you indicate your acceptance of this License to do so, and
+all its terms and conditions for copying, distributing or modifying
+the Program or works based on it.
+
+  6. Each time you redistribute the Program (or any work based on the
+Program), the recipient automatically receives a license from the
+original licensor to copy, distribute or modify the Program subject to
+these terms and conditions.  You may not impose any further
+restrictions on the recipients' exercise of the rights granted herein.
+You are not responsible for enforcing compliance by third parties to
+this License.
+
+  7. If, as a consequence of a court judgment or allegation of patent
+infringement or for any other reason (not limited to patent issues),
+conditions are imposed on you (whether by court order, agreement or
+otherwise) that contradict the conditions of this License, they do not
+excuse you from the conditions of this License.  If you cannot
+distribute so as to satisfy simultaneously your obligations under this
+License and any other pertinent obligations, then as a consequence you
+may not distribute the Program at all.  For example, if a patent
+license would not permit royalty-free redistribution of the Program by
+all those who receive copies directly or indirectly through you, then
+the only way you could satisfy both it and this License would be to
+refrain entirely from distribution of the Program.
+
+If any portion of this section is held invalid or unenforceable under
+any particular circumstance, the balance of the section is intended to
+apply and the section as a whole is intended to apply in other
+circumstances.
+
+It is not the purpose of this section to induce you to infringe any
+patents or other property right claims or to contest validity of any
+such claims; this section has the sole purpose of protecting the
+integrity of the free software distribution system, which is
+implemented by public license practices.  Many people have made
+generous contributions to the wide range of software distributed
+through that system in reliance on consistent application of that
+system; it is up to the author/donor to decide if he or she is willing
+to distribute software through any other system and a licensee cannot
+impose that choice.
+
+This section is intended to make thoroughly clear what is believed to
+be a consequence of the rest of this License.
+
+  8. If the distribution and/or use of the Program is restricted in
+certain countries either by patents or by copyrighted interfaces, the
+original copyright holder who places the Program under this License
+may add an explicit geographical distribution limitation excluding
+those countries, so that distribution is permitted only in or among
+countries not thus excluded.  In such case, this License incorporates
+the limitation as if written in the body of this License.
+
+  9. The Free Software Foundation may publish revised and/or new versions
+of the General Public License from time to time.  Such new versions will
+be similar in spirit to the present version, but may differ in detail to
+address new problems or concerns.
+
+Each version is given a distinguishing version number.  If the Program
+specifies a version number of this License which applies to it and "any
+later version", you have the option of following the terms and conditions
+either of that version or of any later version published by the Free
+Software Foundation.  If the Program does not specify a version number of
+this License, you may choose any version ever published by the Free Software
+Foundation.
+
+  10. If you wish to incorporate parts of the Program into other free
+programs whose distribution conditions are different, write to the author
+to ask for permission.  For software which is copyrighted by the Free
+Software Foundation, write to the Free Software Foundation; we sometimes
+make exceptions for this.  Our decision will be guided by the two goals
+of preserving the free status of all derivatives of our free software and
+of promoting the sharing and reuse of software generally.
+
+                            NO WARRANTY
+
+  11. BECAUSE THE PROGRAM IS LICENSED FREE OF CHARGE, THERE IS NO WARRANTY
+FOR THE PROGRAM, TO THE EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW.  EXCEPT WHEN
+OTHERWISE STATED IN WRITING THE COPYRIGHT HOLDERS AND/OR OTHER PARTIES
+PROVIDE THE PROGRAM "AS IS" WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESSED
+OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF
+MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  THE ENTIRE RISK AS
+TO THE QUALITY AND PERFORMANCE OF THE PROGRAM IS WITH YOU.  SHOULD THE
+PROGRAM PROVE DEFECTIVE, YOU ASSUME THE COST OF ALL NECESSARY SERVICING,
+REPAIR OR CORRECTION.
+
+  12. IN NO EVENT UNLESS REQUIRED BY APPLICABLE LAW OR AGREED TO IN WRITING
+WILL ANY COPYRIGHT HOLDER, OR ANY OTHER PARTY WHO MAY MODIFY AND/OR
+REDISTRIBUTE THE PROGRAM AS PERMITTED ABOVE, BE LIABLE TO YOU FOR DAMAGES,
+INCLUDING ANY GENERAL, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES ARISING
+OUT OF THE USE OR INABILITY TO USE THE PROGRAM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED
+TO LOSS OF DATA OR DATA BEING RENDERED INACCURATE OR LOSSES SUSTAINED BY
+YOU OR THIRD PARTIES OR A FAILURE OF THE PROGRAM TO OPERATE WITH ANY OTHER
+PROGRAMS), EVEN IF SUCH HOLDER OR OTHER PARTY HAS BEEN ADVISED OF THE
+POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
+
+                     END OF TERMS AND CONDITIONS
+
+            How to Apply These Terms to Your New Programs
+
+  If you develop a new program, and you want it to be of the greatest
+possible use to the public, the best way to achieve this is to make it
+free software which everyone can redistribute and change under these terms.
+
+  To do so, attach the following notices to the program.  It is safest
+to attach them to the start of each source file to most effectively
+convey the exclusion of warranty; and each file should have at least
+the "copyright" line and a pointer to where the full notice is found.
+
+    <one line to give the program's name and a brief idea of what it does.>
+    Copyright (C) <year>  <name of author>
+
+    This program is free software; you can redistribute it and/or modify
+    it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
+    the Free Software Foundation; either version 2 of the License, or
+    (at your option) any later version.
+
+    This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
+    but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
+    MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the
+    GNU General Public License for more details.
+
+    You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
+    along with this program; if not, write to the Free Software
+    Foundation, Inc., 51 Franklin Street, Fifth Floor, Boston, MA  02110-1301, USA
+
+
+Also add information on how to contact you by electronic and paper mail.
+
+If the program is interactive, make it output a short notice like this
+when it starts in an interactive mode:
+
+    Gnomovision version 69, Copyright (C) year name of author
+    Gnomovision comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY; for details type `show w'.
+    This is free software, and you are welcome to redistribute it
+    under certain conditions; type `show c' for details.
+
+The hypothetical commands `show w' and `show c' should show the appropriate
+parts of the General Public License.  Of course, the commands you use may
+be called something other than `show w' and `show c'; they could even be
+mouse-clicks or menu items--whatever suits your program.
+
+You should also get your employer (if you work as a programmer) or your
+school, if any, to sign a "copyright disclaimer" for the program, if
+necessary.  Here is a sample; alter the names:
+
+  Yoyodyne, Inc., hereby disclaims all copyright interest in the program
+  `Gnomovision' (which makes passes at compilers) written by James Hacker.
+
+  <signature of Ty Coon>, 1 April 1989
+  Ty Coon, President of Vice
+
+This General Public License does not permit incorporating your program into
+proprietary programs.  If your program is a subroutine library, you may
+consider it more useful to permit linking proprietary applications with the
+library.  If this is what you want to do, use the GNU Library General
+Public License instead of this License.
+</blockquote>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-13-uc-living-well.html b/_posts/2010-01-13-uc-living-well.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..586c3cec
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-13-uc-living-well.html
@@ -0,0 +1,120 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: UC Living well
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+This was a statement I had to agree to take an online health assessment through my health insurance. Since this is a completely voluntary action and because it involves potentially sensitive information, I am okay with having to agree to something. Of course, I still haven't read it, so I really have no idea what I'm agree to.
+
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+
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+
+Use of the StayWell websites constitutes your agreement with Terms of Use.
+
+Copyright ©2009 The StayWell Company. StayWell and StayWell Online are registered trademarks of The StayWell Company. </blockquote>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-19-weekly-flu-update-2.html b/_posts/2010-01-19-weekly-flu-update-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..5b8fa6ff
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-19-weekly-flu-update-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Weekly flu update
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- H1N1 flu
+layout: post
+---
+It has been a while since I last had a <a title="Previous weekly flu update" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/12/31/weekly-flu-update/" target="_self">weekly flu update post</a>. Mainly this is because all is pretty quiet on the flu front. Last week gave a momentary uptick that suggested a possible second epidemic peak, but this week's data does not agree. The <a title="Flu weekly" href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/" target="_blank">week 1 data</a> (possible <a title="Week 1 2009-2010" href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2009-2010/weekly01.htm" target="_blank">permalink</a>) tested only 3,886 specimens of which only 139 were positive for influenza. Of these, 78 were H1N1 while another 59 had no sub-typing available (a possible maximum of 137). I'm still waiting for that second epidemic peak, but will be happy if it never materializes.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Week 1 update" src="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2009-2010/images/image011.gif" alt="" width="500" height="375" />
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-25-existing-home-sales-decline-sharply-in-december.html b/_posts/2010-01-25-existing-home-sales-decline-sharply-in-december.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..ca3b16fd
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-25-existing-home-sales-decline-sharply-in-december.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Existing home sales decline sharply in December
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Datasets
+layout: post
+---
+From <a title="Existing home sales decline" href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/01/existing-home-sales-decline-sharply-in.html?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29" target="_blank">CalculatedRisk</a>, I hear that existing home sales have dropped sharply in December. Home sales, in a seasonal-adjusted annual rate (SAAR), were 6.54 million in November and dropped to 5.45 million in December (still up 15% from December last year). On CalculatedRisk, Bill McBride comments that this drop is due in large part because there was probably a rush to home buying in November to take advantage of the first-time home buyers credit. This credit has now been <a title="IRS " href="http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=204671,00.html" target="_blank">extended</a> to April 30, 201. With people rushing to buy homes, I still have to wonder if we aren't pushing people to buy homes they cannot afford.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Existing home decline" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/photos/EHSDec2009.jpg" alt="" width="580" height="389" />
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-25-stewart-comments-on-olbermann.html b/_posts/2010-01-25-stewart-comments-on-olbermann.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d47c8f50
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-25-stewart-comments-on-olbermann.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Stewart comments on Olbermann
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+As a fan of both Jon Stewart and Keith Olbermann, I really enjoyed this <a title="Stewart comment on Olbermann" href="http://www.indecisionforever.com/2010/01/22/jon-stewarts-special-comment-on-keith-olbermann/" target="_blank">Special Comment</a> by Stewart about recent remarks Olbermann had for the newly elected Senator from Massachusetts. I had seen the Olbermann comments previously and thought they were a bit thin (where's my <a title="Sarcasm emoticon" href="http://mashable.com/2010/01/15/sarcmark/" target="_blank">sarcasm emoticon</a>?) on the supporting facts against senator-elect <a title="Scott Brown" href="http://www.brownforussenate.com/" target="_blank">Scott Brown</a>.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-26-mars-spirit-rover-not-moving.html b/_posts/2010-01-26-mars-spirit-rover-not-moving.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..3e204365
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-26-mars-spirit-rover-not-moving.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Mars Spirit rover not moving
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Mars
+layout: post
+---
+I guess my <a title="Mars Spirit dead" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/01/04/mars-spirit-dead/" target="_self">previous post</a> indicating that Mars Spirit might be dead was a bit premature. In fact, Mars Spirit appears unable to move from its current location, but its instruments are still working and therefore it can still perform scientific inquiry for however far out its arms and cameras will reach. Still, it <a title="BBC story" href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8481798.stm" target="_blank">appears that NASA has given up</a> on the possibility of Mars Spirit rover ever moving from its current location (shown below) due mainly to failure of 2 of the 6 wheels.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Mars Spirit resting place" src="http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47188000/jpg/_47188892_sola1899_hazcam_2f294958090effb1dnp1254l0m1_br.jpg" alt="" width="466" height="400" />
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-26-olbermann-apologizes-to-stewart.html b/_posts/2010-01-26-olbermann-apologizes-to-stewart.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..3807f150
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-26-olbermann-apologizes-to-stewart.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Olbermann apologizes to Stewart
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+In a follow-up to my <a title="Stewart comments on Olbermann" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/01/25/stewart-comments-on-olbermann/" target="_blank">post</a> yesterday pointing out Jon Stewart's special comment on Keith Olbermann. Last night, we had <a title="Olbermann apologizes to Stewart" href="http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/01/olbermann-responds-to-stewart-youre-right-i-have-been-a-little-over-the-top-lately-point-taken-sorry.php" target="_blank">Olbermann apologize to Stewart</a> for being `a little over the top.' It certainly beats the `I apologize if you misunderstood me' or `I apologize if you feel bad' type of apologies, so that's something.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-27-terraforming-mars.html b/_posts/2010-01-27-terraforming-mars.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..11512d8b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-27-terraforming-mars.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Terraforming Mars
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Mars
+layout: post
+---
+Have you ever thought about the possibility of living on Mars? National Geographic recently put out a time-table for terraforming Mars that it might take about 1,000 years. Even then, humans on Mars would need to use scuba gear to go outside. The basic idea of the terraforming is to release carbon dioxide (CO2) into the martian atmosphere by crashing the planet with meteors to release CO2 or create factories to produce CO2. I wondered about the possibility of transporting CO2 from Earth to Mars, solving two problems at the same time. This doesn't seem likely since transportation to Mars is a huge cost, but perhaps we will create technology that will make that transportation cheaper. 
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Terraformed Mars" src="http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/img/big-idea/mars-page2.jpg" alt="" width="580" height="500" />
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-27-who-defends-h1n1-warning.html b/_posts/2010-01-27-who-defends-h1n1-warning.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..7452f2e2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-27-who-defends-h1n1-warning.html
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: WHO defends H1N1 warning
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- H1N1 flu
+layout: post
+---
+When H1N1 initially emerged, there were fears of a global catastrophe. In hindsight, it appears H1N1 is actually milder than most seasonal flu. In light of this hindsight, institutions (governments, hospitals, etc) are wondering how real the threat of catastrophe was and whether the WHO's alarmist warnings were influenced by corporate interests, namely vaccine producers. Predictably, <a title="WHO H1N1 vaccines" href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8481211.stm" target="_blank">WHO officials say there is no link</a> and an internal investigation is on-going. So I suppose we should expect to hear something in mid-2014 (sarcasm emoticon anyone?).
+
+I see the story perhaps somewhat differently. Initially H1N1 (then called swine flu) was a big concern. The first reports coming out of Mexico were that mortality rate was high and those dying were young to middle-aged individuals. The mortality rate was inevitably high because the denominator was too small, i.e. many more people already had H1N1 we just didn't realize it. Those affected was probably biased as well since an autopsy, or other reason for death measure, is less likely to be performed on older individuals than on seemingly healthy middle-aged individuals.
+
+&lt;speculation&gt;I can see a situation where WHO was very concerned and called up vaccine manufacturers to ask how quickly a vaccine could be produced. In turn , maybe WHO gave the vaccine producers some kind of guarantee about purchasing vaccine. With this guarantee, vaccine producers ramped up production capabilities. As data rolled in that provided information about the lethality of H1N1, the question is whether the WHO should still have been pushing the vaccine or not.&lt;/speculation&gt;
+
+I will be curious to see whether there is any truth to this speculation.
+
+On a separate note, my favorite quote from the above linked article is
+<blockquote>Dr Fukuda rejected comparisons between seasonal flu and swine flu - describing them as like comparing oranges to apples.
+
+Seasonal flu figures were based on statistical models, whereas every swine flu death had been confirmed in a laboratory, he said.</blockquote>
+I wonder how he meant this statement. My guess is that he doesn't trust the statistical model flu figures whereas he is confidence in the H1N1 flu laboratory confirmed deaths. My interpretation is that clearly the swine flu deaths have been under-counted, similar to how the <a title="Census undercount" href="http://www.gnocdc.org/articles/censustrust.html" target="_blank">census undercounts minority groups</a>.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-28-objections-to-bayesian-statistics.html b/_posts/2010-01-28-objections-to-bayesian-statistics.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..e59ebc7a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-28-objections-to-bayesian-statistics.html
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Objections to Bayesian statistics
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Statistics
+layout: post
+---
+I remember reading Andrew Gelman's <a title="Problems with Bayesianism" href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2008/04/problems_with_b.html" target="_blank">blog on 1 April 2008</a>. The title of the post was "Why I don't like Bayesian statistics''. Seeing as how Gelman's work is pretty Bayesian, I was a bit confused until I realized it was April Fool's Day. Gelman edited this blog post and published it in <a title="Bayesian Analysis" href="http://ba.stat.cmu.edu/" target="_blank">Bayesian Analysis</a>, a journal specifically for all things Bayesian. You can find the <a title="Objections to Bayesianism" href="http://ba.stat.cmu.edu/vol03is03.php" target="_blank">article as well as 4 comments and a rejoinder here</a>. There are no truly anti-Bayesians here, but the articles give a look into some of the questions of Bayesian analysis that are answered and some that are not.
+
+I did learn a few things while reading these articles. One in particular stands out. The comment is in reference to most Bayesian analysis using conjugate priors out of convenience rather than truly representing prior information. These conjugate priors are typically used for computational reasons. Kadane points out that any prior can be well approximated by mixtures of conjugate priors. Using these mixtures allows accurately capturing prior information, but also retaining computational simplicity.
+
+Finally, I'll end this post with a quote that comments on the objective versus subject statistical analysis debate that appears in non-Bayesian as well as Bayesian statistical analyses.
+<blockquote>Statistics is made of subjective procedures that yield objectively testable results.</blockquote>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-01-28-yudof-interview-in-nytimes.html b/_posts/2010-01-28-yudof-interview-in-nytimes.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..9819157f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-01-28-yudof-interview-in-nytimes.html
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Yudof interview in NYTimes
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- UCSB
+layout: post
+---
+I have a history with <a title="Mark Yudof" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Yudof" target="_blank">Mark Yudof</a>. Okay, it's not really much of a history, but he was the president of the University of MN when I was a master's student there. Now he is the president of the University of California system. He was <a title="Yudof NYTimes interview" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/27/magazine/27fob-q4-t.html?_r=2" target="_blank">interviewed recently by the NYTimes</a>. I can't imagine him coming off any worse. Basically my take home message from this interview is that we pay him $540,000/year, provide a pension and housing allowing for him to smile, shake hands, and tell jokes.
+
+Here is a quote from the article:
+<blockquote>How did you get into education?
+I don’t know. It’s all an accident. I thought I’d go work for a law firm.</blockquote>
+
+Seriously?? Is he trying to get fired? My guess is that he is because he has some sort of golden parachute and he doesn't want to deal with the problems at the UC system. 
diff --git a/_posts/2010-02-02-google-mars.html b/_posts/2010-02-02-google-mars.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..1a5c7353
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-02-02-google-mars.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Google Mars
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Mars
+layout: post
+---
+While reading about the <a title="Google lab experiments" href="http://www.networkworld.com/slideshows/2010/020210-10-coolest-google-labs-experiments-colbin.html?ts#slide11" target="_blank">10 best google labs experiments</a>, I found out that Google has a <a title="Google mars" href="http://www.google.com/mars/" target="_blank">map of Mars</a>. There is also an option to see a google-earth view of Mars.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Google Mars" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/dc/GoogleMars.png" alt="" width="350" height="222" />
diff --git a/_posts/2010-02-05-google-health-corps.html b/_posts/2010-02-05-google-health-corps.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..00a4cf0b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-02-05-google-health-corps.html
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Google health corps
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+If I were a recent college grad (and especially if job prospects were looking slim), I would think about entering the <a title="Google health corps" href="http://blog.google.org/2010/02/applications-now-open-for-2010-2011.html" target="_blank">Google Health Corps</a>.From the link:
+<blockquote>GHC is a unique program that enhances a fellow's cultural experience by pairing cross cultural teams - one fellow from the host country and one international fellow. Once accepted, all chosen fellows must complete a summer training course sponsored by <a href="http://www.stanford.edu/">Stanford University</a>. This year GHC has 32 open positions with locations ranging from Burundi, Rwanda, New Jersey, Malawi, and Massachusetts. We believe that Global Health Corps offers a unique experience that enables young professionals to gain valuable experience for strengthening global public health equity.</blockquote>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-02-05-phd-level-research-biostatistician-in-rtp-nc-and-the-dc-metro-area.html b/_posts/2010-02-05-phd-level-research-biostatistician-in-rtp-nc-and-the-dc-metro-area.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..37da8b4a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-02-05-phd-level-research-biostatistician-in-rtp-nc-and-the-dc-metro-area.html
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: PhD level Research Biostatistician in RTP, NC, and the DC Metro area
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Jobs
+layout: post
+---
+I received this in my LinkedIn mailbox and yes, my name is spelled incorrectly:
+<blockquote>Hi Jared. RTI is looking for a PhD level Research Biostatistician in RTP, NC, and the DC Metro area. Do you know anybody who may be interested? I’ll be glad to send you the job description or it can be found on RTI’s website, Job ID#12422.
+
+Thanks.
+
+Ellen Benzine
+RTI International</blockquote>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-02-06-superbowl-ad-cost.html b/_posts/2010-02-06-superbowl-ad-cost.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..5370791b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-02-06-superbowl-ad-cost.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Superbowl ad cost
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Datasets
+layout: post
+---
+Here is a graph of the cost of a 30-second superbowl ad that I borrowed from the <a title="Big Picture superbowl ad" href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/the-superbowl-as-an-economic-indicator/" target="_blank">The Big Picture blog</a>. The title of the post there is `The Superbowl As An Economic Indicator'. If it was a good indicator, why the big jump in 2009. Clearly everyone knew that the economy was declining last year, but yet the spending on a 30 second commercial was a larger than expected increase over the previous year.
+
+<a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/30second0204101_big.gif"><img class="aligncenter" title="Superbowl ad cost" src="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/30second0204101_big.gif" alt="Superbowl ad cost" width="580" height="440" /></a>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-02-08-measuring-your-prior-probability-accuracy.html b/_posts/2010-02-08-measuring-your-prior-probability-accuracy.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..a7b16670
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-02-08-measuring-your-prior-probability-accuracy.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Measuring your prior probability accuracy
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Statistics
+layout: post
+---
+When performing a subjective Bayesian analysis, one aspect of the analysis is to build a prior based on subject matter knowledge from an expert. This process is called prior elicitation. It is common that experts (and others) will underestimate their own uncertainty. From the <a title="Pharyngula post" href="http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2010/02/measure_your_rq.php" target="_blank">Pharyngula blog</a>, I recently found a <a title="Projectionpoint" href="http://projectionpoint.com/" target="_blank">website</a> measuring what they call `risk intelligence' or RQ. The idea behind the website is to measuring how accurately you estimate your own uncertainty in your knowledge about facts in this world. This type of assessment might be valuable in adjusting the self-estimated prior uncertainty to a more realistic estimate of uncertainty. Since I will tell you how the test works below, I would suggest you try out the quiz for yourself by going <a title="Risk intelligence quiz" href="http://projectionpoint.com/test1.php" target="_blank">here</a> before I give away any secrets.
+
+The test asks you to give your probability of 50 statements being true where you can choose from the probabilities 0%-100% in steps of 10%. It then lumps all the questions you gave X% to and calculates the percentage of statements in that group that were true. It compares X% to the percentage that are true. Do this for all percentages and then add up the absolute (?) differences and you have a measure of how accurately people estimate their own uncertainty. So I took the quiz and you can find the results by going <a title="RQ quiz results" href="http://www.projectionpoint.com/test_results.php?url=GypmMaI1HFxfhOMhfV&amp;returning_user=true" target="_blank">here</a> and using the drop down box to choose the test results from 2010-02-05. I scored a 60, which the test says is average. Some of the interesting results are that I choose 0% three times and 1 of the 3 times the statement was actually true. Of the times I chose 90% only half of the answers were true. In fact, of the times I choose 60,70,80, and 90% only half of all these answers were true. At least I got all the 100% answers correct.
+
+Just to get an understanding of how the test works, I retook the quiz and answered 50% to all questions. The resulting RQ score was 52. I'm guessing you can get a zero only if you answer 0% and 100% for all answers and in exactly the incorrect way. I'd be curious if you can get an RQ of 100, if you answer all questions 0% or 100% correctly. I don't know what the quiz would do with the percentages 10%-90% since you never actually answered those to any questions.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-02-15-moguls-scoring-revealed.html b/_posts/2010-02-15-moguls-scoring-revealed.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..0a2f70dc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-02-15-moguls-scoring-revealed.html
@@ -0,0 +1,110 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Moguls scoring revealed
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+I'm a big fan of the Olympics. My family was watching Men's Moguls last night and we were completely baffled by the scoring. I am writing this post to reveal how moguls are scored (almost). I still have a question that I haven't figured out. From <a title="Mogul scoring" href="http://wiki.fisski.com/index.php/Mogul_Judging_And_Scoring" target="_blank">Fisski</a> as well as the commentators, the basics of the scoring are clear. Scoring is comprised of 3 components: turns, air, and speed. Turns and air are judged while speed is objective. In turns, 5 judges score the run with he lowest and highest scores thrown out. The final score gives 50% weight to turns, 25% to air, and 25% to speed.
+
+This all seems pretty clear, the difficulty comes when we try to decipher the scores provided by NBC as we are watching the coverage. The most striking example was when the last skier, Guilbaut Colas, completed his run and we saw the scores. It turned out that he was 6th while the American, Bryon Wilson,  remained in 3rd. Looking at the scores (table below) provided by NBC this is completely perplexing.
+<table border="1">
+<tbody>
+<tr>
+<td></td>
+<td>Rank</td>
+<td>Turn - J1</td>
+<td>Turn - J2</td>
+<td>Turn - J3</td>
+<td>Air - J1</td>
+<td>Air - J2</td>
+<td>Speed</td>
+<td>Total</td>
+</tr>
+<tr>
+<td>Wilson</td>
+<td>3</td>
+<td>4.7</td>
+<td>4.5</td>
+<td>4.6</td>
+<td>1.9</td>
+<td>2.0</td>
+<td>6.82</td>
+<td>26.08</td>
+</tr>
+<tr>
+<td>Colas</td>
+<td>6</td>
+<td>4.7</td>
+<td>4.6</td>
+<td>4.6</td>
+<td>2.2</td>
+<td>2.2</td>
+<td>7.33</td>
+<td>25.74</td>
+</tr>
+</tbody>
+</table>
+In this table, I have already thrown out the highest and lowest turn scores. From these numbers, it is pretty clear Colas is the better skier. He had 0.1 more for turns, 0.5 more for air, and 0.51 more for speed. Yet Colas is 6th and Wilson was 3rd!! What is going on here?!?!?!
+
+Previously we had seen perplexing results that generated a hypothesis. The skiers (both men and women) who did harder air tricks always received less points for air according to the NBC scores. Since this suggests that all skiers should do easier tricks, we thought something might be up. Finally, we found the <a title="Vancouver 2010" href="http://www.vancouver2010.com/olympic-freestyle-skiing/schedule-and-results/mens-moguls-final_frm020101oP.html" target="_blank">vancouver2010</a> site with all the results from the Olympics.
+
+In the table shown above, only the scores for the first jump are shown. The missing information is the scores for the second jump as well as the degree of difficulty for the jumps. So the table above should be updated to the table shown below.
+<table border="1">
+<tbody>
+<tr>
+<td></td>
+<td>Rank</td>
+<td>Turn - J1</td>
+<td>Turn - J2</td>
+<td>Turn - J3</td>
+<td>Air1 - J1</td>
+<td>Air1 - J2</td>
+<td>DoD1</td>
+<td>Air2 - J1</td>
+<td>Air2 - J2</td>
+<td>DoD2</td>
+<td>Speed</td>
+<td>Total</td>
+</tr>
+<tr>
+<td>Wilson</td>
+<td>3</td>
+<td>4.7</td>
+<td>4.5</td>
+<td>4.6</td>
+<td>1.9</td>
+<td>2.0</td>
+<td>1.41</td>
+<td>2.2</td>
+<td>2.2</td>
+<td>1.24</td>
+<td>6.82</td>
+<td>26.08</td>
+</tr>
+<tr>
+<td>Colas</td>
+<td>6</td>
+<td>4.7</td>
+<td>4.6</td>
+<td>4.6</td>
+<td>2.2</td>
+<td>2.2</td>
+<td>1.24</td>
+<td>1.6</td>
+<td>1.7</td>
+<td>1.09</td>
+<td>7.33</td>
+<td>25.74</td>
+</tr>
+</tbody>
+</table>
+Now it is at least clear how Wilson beat Colas. Wilson's second air had exactly the same degree of difficulty and scores as Colas's first air. But Wilson's first air had better scores and higher degree of difficulty than Colas's second air. This was enough to overcome the lower turn and speed scores.
+
+We are pretty close at this point, but still not quite there. It seems pretty clear that to get the total turn score, you simply add up the 3 judges turn scores. The speed score is what it is. Fiswiki says the air judges are scores are averaged but it doesn't say whether they are averaged for each jump or the total for both jumps are averaged. Either way the math doesn't work out. The closest I can get is to compute the judges scores for both jumps independently and then average these, but with that calculation Wilson should have had a 26.10 and Colas a 25.76. Perhaps the reported judges scores are just rounded?
+
+Anybody have any thoughts?
diff --git a/_posts/2010-02-20-ucsb-5-in-environmental-economics.html b/_posts/2010-02-20-ucsb-5-in-environmental-economics.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..fb2815bc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-02-20-ucsb-5-in-environmental-economics.html
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: "UCSB #5 in environmental economics"
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- UCSB
+layout: post
+---
+From <a title="environmental economics rankings" href="http://www.env-econ.net/2010/02/john-loves-rankings.html" target="_blank">Environmental Economics</a> who do not name their source other than ``from the inbox'', UCSB is #5 in the country in environmental economics.
+<blockquote>FYI, the top seven universities in environmental economics, as rated by REPEC are
+#1 -- MIT
+#2 -- Universitys of  Zurich
+#3 -- Harvard
+#4 -- Free University, Amsterdam
+#5 -- University of California, Santa Barbara
+#6 -- University of Maryland
+#7 -- Columbia University</blockquote>
+And <a title="environmental economics institutions" href="http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.env.html" target="_blank">UCSB is #7 among all institutions</a>.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-02-23-metrumrg-is-hiring.html b/_posts/2010-02-23-metrumrg-is-hiring.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..ca27ebd5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-02-23-metrumrg-is-hiring.html
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: MetrumRG is hiring
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+<a title="MetrumRG" href="http://metrumrg.com/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=5&amp;Itemid=6" target="_blank">MetrumRG is looking for Bayesian statisticians</a>:
+<blockquote>Senior Scientists / Principal Scientists
+
+MetrumRG is selectively seeking enthusiastic and energetic individuals to join a team of scientists in a unique working environment at the level of Senior Scientist or Principal Scientist. As a member of the MetrumRG team, you will participate in the research, development, and application of quantitative data analysis methods in biomedical sciences through collaborations with both academia and the pharma/biotech industry. Job responsibilities include modeling and simulation to support drug development and clinical trials, consultation and technical guidance for clients, preparation of reports and presentations, and participation in MetrumRG training courses. You will also be expected to develop your own research interests, present and publish results, and expand your scientific knowledge and skills through professional development opportunities. Ideal candidates will have a post-graduate degree in pharmacokinetics, statistics, bioengineering, other related quantitative sciences, or relevant work experience, excellent written and verbal communication skills, prior experience in applying modeling and simulation tools such as NONMEM, ADAPT or BUGS to quantitative decision making, and experience with programming/statistical tools such as SPLUS, R, or SAS. Experience with Bayesian data analysis is highly desirable.
+
+Participate in the research, development and application of quantitative modeling and simulation methods in biomedical sciences with both academic and pharma/biotech industry collaborators. Enjoy the flexibility and rewards that are only available in a growing small business atmosphere.
+
+The MetrumRG offices are located in Tariffville, CT, a vibrant New England town situated in the Farmington River Valley. MetrumRG also offers the flexibility and professional rewards that come from working in a small, focused business environment. MetrumRG offers a competitive salary and full benefits package.
+
+Interested individuals should email Marc and paste a resume into the message box. We prefer to hear directly from candidates; no recruiters please.
+
+Metrum Research Group is an equal opportunity employer.</blockquote>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-02-25-oregon-state-university-is-hiring.html b/_posts/2010-02-25-oregon-state-university-is-hiring.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..68b9677f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-02-25-oregon-state-university-is-hiring.html
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Oregon State University is hiring
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+From my inbox
+<blockquote>The Statistics Department at Oregon State University is hiring a
+tenure-track assistant professor, to start 16 September 2010, and an
+instructor, to start 16 June 2010. Could you please forward the attached
+announcements to your graduate students, post docs, or others who may be
+interested?</blockquote>
+Go <a title="Oregon State University" href="http://www.stat.oregonstate.edu/JobAnnounce" target="_blank">here </a>for more information.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-03-beetle-population-dynamics-forecast.html b/_posts/2010-03-03-beetle-population-dynamics-forecast.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..9782210d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-03-beetle-population-dynamics-forecast.html
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Beetle population dynamics forecast
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size:85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span><hr>
+
+A laboratory strain of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Callosobruchus_maculatus"><em>Callosbruchus maculatus</em></a>, a beetle, was used to study population dynamics. Initially 50 beetles were placed in a main container with 1 petri dish containing 5g of beans. Every 3 days 5g of fresh beans were added to this container on a new petri dish while petri dishes with beans that had been added 18 days earlier were transferred to a separate `emergence' container. Adults found in the emergence container were transfered to the main container. Three replicates of this experiment counting total adult beetles every 3 days for a total of 408 days are shown in the figure below. My forecast (95% interval) for the number of beetles on day 414 and day 438 are 100 (90, 110) and 300 (275, 325), respectively.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Google Mars" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/beetle.jpg" alt="" width="580" />
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-03-student-forecasts.html b/_posts/2010-03-03-student-forecasts.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c5500526
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-03-student-forecasts.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Student forecasts
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<a title="Student blogging suggestion" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2009/10/02/student-blogging/" target="_self">Having heard no complains when I suggested it</a>, I have adopted an<a title="Here they come" href="http://aguanomics.com/2009/10/here-they-come.html" target="_blank"> idea</a> stolen from David Zetland's <a title="Aguanomics" href="http://aguanomics.com/" target="_blank">aguanomics blog</a>. For the next two weeks, you will see blog posts from students in PSTAT 262MC, Applied Bayesian Time Series. The assignment consists of two blog posts. Each student's first post will introduce a data set and provide forecasts for two future time points. The second post will describe the model used to analyze the data set as well as model predictions for those same two time points. Following aguanomics, their grade will be based solely on submission and not on quality. I welcome constructive comments from my readers (however few there are).
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-04-opening-assistant-director-of-lisa-department-of-statistics-virginia-tech.html b/_posts/2010-03-04-opening-assistant-director-of-lisa-department-of-statistics-virginia-tech.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..fc452866
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-04-opening-assistant-director-of-lisa-department-of-statistics-virginia-tech.html
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Opening - Assistant Director of LISA, Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Jobs
+layout: post
+---
+From the inbox:
+
+<blockquote>Assistant Director of LISA, Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech
+
+The Laboratory for Interdisciplinary Statistical Analysis (LISA) in the Department of Statistics at Virginia Tech is seeking applicants for a research, non-tenure-track position to begin August 10, 2010. Qualified candidates should have particular interest in biomedical applications and must be committed to the role of statistician/biostatistician as interdisciplinary researcher and collaborator. Appointment will be at the assistant research professor level.
+
+As the Assistant Director of LISA-the university's source for expert statistical analysis since 1948-the successful candidate will encounter a wide range of research problems. Responsibilities will include providing statistical collaboration and consulting services to faculty and graduate students from a variety of departments within Virginia Tech as well as to clients outside the university, supporting the training and mentoring of graduate students in statistical analysis and the practice of statistical collaboration, supporting the department's service teaching program, developing educational tools to improve the statistical literacy of the university community, and working with departmental faculty in obtaining funded projects with researchers in other departments or university units. A Ph.D. in statistics, biostatistics, or a closely related field is required.
+
+Nestled in the scenic Blue Ridge Mountains, Virginia Tech is a public land-grant university serving the Commonwealth of Virginia, the nation, and the world community. The Department of Statistics, founded in 1949, is one of the oldest in the nation.  It has added eight new faculty in the past four years as part of an expansion that is expected to continue for several more years. In fulfillment of its mission to provide statistical service, research, and education, LISA (the Laboratory for Interdisciplinary Statistical Analysis) offers free statistical collaboration, walk-in consulting, and short courses to all Virginia Tech faculty, staff, and students. Please see www.lisa.stat.vt.edu<http://www.lisa.stat.vt.edu> for a complete description of the position responsibilities, the Department of Statistics, and LISA.
+
+All applications, including a cover letter, curriculum vitae, and a statement of research and teaching goals should be submitted electronically to http://listings.jobs.vt.edu (posting #0100040). Separately, mail three letters of recommendation to Eric Vance, Search Chair, Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061-0439.  Direct questions to Dr. Vance at ervance@vt.edu<mailto:ervance@vt.edu> or by phone at 540-231-4597. Review of applications will begin April 5, 2010.
+
+Virginia Tech is committed to recruiting, selecting, promoting, and retaining women, persons of color, veterans, and persons with disabilities. The university is a recipient of an NSF Advance grant which opens up a wide range of networking and development opportunities to women in science and engineering (www.advance.vt.edu<http://www.advance.vt.edu>). We strongly value diversity in the university and seek to assure equality in education and employment.</blockquote>
+
+
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-05-analysis-of-approval-rating-data.html b/_posts/2010-03-05-analysis-of-approval-rating-data.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..3e315c73
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-05-analysis-of-approval-rating-data.html
@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Analysis of approval rating data
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size:85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span><hr>
+
+<p> <img class="alignleft" title="Major polls" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/rich [thumbnails].jpg" alt="rich [thumbnails].jpg"/>Rich Harang says:
+Approval rating data has been collected from <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#polls">Real Clear Politics</a>,summarizing President Obama's approval ratings from the end of January, 2009, through present day.  We have collected a subset from five different polling organizations (CBS, CNN, FOX news, Gallup, and Rassmussen; all of which were selected on the basis that they had more than 15 samples available) from January 2009 through the present (see figure).
+</p> 
+<p> 
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Major polls" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/major-polls.png" alt="major-polls.png"/>
+</p> 
+<p> 
+There are clear poll-to-poll biases: Rassmussen, for instance, appears to be consistently lower than the bulk of the other pollsters, while CNN appears to trend higher than the rest.  These biases appear to be fairly consistent over time, however we would like to quantify them, see if they drift over time, and try to find the "true" approval rating for President Obama over time based on this sparse data.
+</p> 
+<p> 
+As the data appears to have "momentum", we will fit a local linear model, in which the slope of the approval rating changes over time, and apply a linear model to account for pollster biases.  Due to the large sample sizes, we can treat the data as approximately normal, and due to the consistent polling sizes and popluations for each pollster (e.g. Rassmussen typically samples 1500 likely voters over the course of 4 days, while FOX news typically samples 900
+registered voters over 2 days), we can treat the variance for each pollster as fixed but unknown.
+</p> 
+<p> 
+Rigorous eyeball-based analysis suggests that our model should predict a mean approval rating of roughly 0.47 at a three-week horizon, and 0.41 or so at a three-month horizon.  The actual observed data point will depend on the poll used, however we may guess that any Rassmussen poll will likely be 3-5 points below the mean, and a CNN poll will likely be 1-2 points above the mean.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-05-daily-exchange-rates-forecast.html b/_posts/2010-03-05-daily-exchange-rates-forecast.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..69afdfd7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-05-daily-exchange-rates-forecast.html
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Daily Exchange Rates forecast
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size:85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span><hr>
+
+<p> <img class="alignleft" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/chi-yang [thumbnails].jpg" alt="chi-yang [thumbnails].jpg"/>Chi-Yang Chiu says:
+
+Taiwan dollar (TWD) and Philippine peso (PHP) were used to study the daily exchange rates compared to the US dollar (USD). In finance, exchange rate is the price of one country's currency expressed in another country's currency. 
+
+Figure 1 shows 913 data points of the exchange rates of TWD and PHP to USD from September 1st 2007 to March 1st 2010. The type of the rate here is interbank rate which is an official rate quoted in the media, as in the Wall Street Journal. 
+
+The plots indicate these two currencies have similar trends. They all went down from September 2007 to March 2008 and then went up to the January 2009 and then went down moderately to the end.  
+
+My short term forecast (95% interval) for the exchange rates of TWD and PHP to USD on March 11 2010 are 32.10 (31.95, 32.25) and 46.30 (46.15, 46.45) respectively. And my long term forecast (95% interval) on May 27 2010 are 32.85(32.65, 33.05) and 45.90(45.75, 46.15). 
+
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/rate.jpg" alt="rate.jpg"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-05-predicting-first-year-college-gpa.html b/_posts/2010-03-05-predicting-first-year-college-gpa.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..980c4d38
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-05-predicting-first-year-college-gpa.html
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Predicting first-year college GPA
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size:85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span><hr>
+
+<p> <img class="alignleft" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/igor [thumbnails].jpg" alt="igor [thumbnails].jpg"/>Igor Himelfarb says:
+
+The data consists n = 2638 points of information of first year college GPA (FYGPA), high school GPA (HSGPA), SAT scores (SATCR, SATM, and SATW), and Income for college-bound high school seniors.  The data is divided into 12 years starting from 1997 and ending at 2008.  Each data point corresponds to a self-reported, particular value for a particular student.  No violation of normality was found for all variables except Income.  Dynamic regression will be estimated predicting FYGPA from HSGPA and SAT’s.  My prediction (95% interval) that in year 2010, for a student who scored 500 on each of the SAT’s and had HSGPA = 3.5, FYGPA will be equal to 2.43. 
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="1" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/igor1.jpg" alt="" width=580/>
+<img class="aligncenter" title="2" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/igor2.jpg" alt="" width=580/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-06-forecast-of-the-minimum-temperature-in-goleta.html b/_posts/2010-03-06-forecast-of-the-minimum-temperature-in-goleta.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..83d99968
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-06-forecast-of-the-minimum-temperature-in-goleta.html
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Forecast of the minimum temperature in Goleta
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size:85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span><hr>
+
+<p> <img class="alignleft" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/gabe [thumbnails].jpg" alt="gabe [thumbnails].jpg"/>Gabriele Lillacci says:
+
+In planning what plants and crops to grow for the season, and also in determining which vegetables can be productively grown in a given area, it is important to know the date after which the daily minimum temperature can be expected not to go under a certain threshold for the rest of the season, and the date after which the threshold will be consistently crossed (consistently meaning 3 or more times in a 30-day period). These are called "last frost date" and "end of season date" respectively. Given a threshold of 38 F, the two dates were 3/5 and 11/30 respectively in 2009 at the Santa Barbara Municipal Airport. This problem served as a motivation to try to forecast the minimum temperature on the same dates in 2010. Minimum temperature data were obtained from 3 airport locations in coastal southern California, namely the Santa Barbara Municipal Airport (SBA), the Santa Maria Public Airport (SMX) and the Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). For each location, daily observations from 01/01/2001 to 12/31/2009 are provided. The total number of observations is 3287 for each location. A plot of this data set is shown in the figure below. My forecast (95% interval) for the minimum temperature on 3/5/2010 and 11/30/2010 are 40 F (35 F, 45 F) and 37 F (32 F, 42 F) respectively.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/gabe-blog1.jpg" alt="gabe-blog1.jpg"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-06-intraday-stock-price-forecast.html b/_posts/2010-03-06-intraday-stock-price-forecast.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..7ccc609a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-06-intraday-stock-price-forecast.html
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Intraday stock price forecast
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size:85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span><hr>
+
+<p> <img class="alignleft" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/varvara [thumbnails].jpg" alt="varvara [thumbnails].jpg"/>Varvara Kulikova says:
+
+<p class="p1">High frequency trading data represent intraday trading activity for an equity on the exchange market. The data set for the analysis had been obtained from the TAQ database of the NYSE via Wharton Research Data Services located at http://wrds.wharton.upenn.edu.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p> 
+<p class="p1">The information available in the data is a record of each transaction occurring at NYSE during regular trading hours, from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. EST. This information includes a time stamp at which each trade had occurred (up to a second), a corresponding price (number of dollars per share) and volume (in number of shares). The trading data had been obtained for three selected stocks: DELL, IBM and Microsoft (MSFT) on October 1, 2009.</p> 
+<p class="p1">A figure below illustrates average price at which trades occur at a particular second and total volume of these trades for three stocks on this day.</p> 
+<p class="p1">The day had been split up into one-second intervals, which correspond to 27,401 time points per trading day. Each of those time points was matched with the time points for average trades for all three stocks. Some of these intervals have no trades for any stocks, some have trades for some stocks, and some have trades for all three stocks.</p> 
+<p class="p1">My forecast (68% interval) for the opening average price of stocks (DELL,IBM,MSFT) in the morning (9:30:00) of next day October 2, 2009 would be 15.1(15, 15.2), 118.8(118.6,119) and 24.87 (24.77,24.97) respectively. Also on October 2, 2009 around noon (12:30 pm EST) the forecast for mean prices would be 14.8(14.7, 14.9), 117.2(117,117.4) and 24.42 (24.32,24.52) <span class="Apple-converted-space">       </span></p> 
+<p class="p2"><br></p> 
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/Stockprices_volume_regscale2.jpg" alt="Stockprices_volume_regscale.jpg" width="580"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-06-studying-gas-prices-in-la.html b/_posts/2010-03-06-studying-gas-prices-in-la.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..71670be9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-06-studying-gas-prices-in-la.html
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Studying Gas Prices in LA
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size:85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span><hr>
+
+<p> <img class="alignleft" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/nate [thumbnails].jpg" alt="nate [thumbnails].jpg"/>Nate Bennett says:
+
+The Energy Information Administration, a subsidiary of the Department of Energy, keeps track of the average weekly price for a gallon of gas in many major metropolitan areas in the US, and they also keep track of the average weekly spot price for a barrel of crude oil. The price of gasoline has been used to predict the traffic flows on the major freeways in LA County, thus a model that predicts this price would be of use to economists. Since gas is derived by refining crude oil, it makes to model the trends for both of these jointly since the demand for both gas and oil are highly correlated as seen in the figure below. Also one can use the price of oil to predict the cost of gas. My gas price prediction (95% Interval) for January 11 is $3.05 ($2.95, $3.15), for March 15 is $3.10 ($2.90, $3.30), and for January 3, 2011 is $3.30 ($3.00, $3.60). My oil price prediction (95% Interval) for January 11 is $75 ($70, $80), for March 15 is $78 ($70, $86), and for January 3, 2011 is $86 ($74, $98).
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/Picture_for_Blog_1.jpg" alt="Picture_for_Blog_1.jpg"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-07-california-birth-outlook.html b/_posts/2010-03-07-california-birth-outlook.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..ccfc68c6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-07-california-birth-outlook.html
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: California birth outlook
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size:85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span><hr>
+
+<p> <img class="alignleft" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/anastasia [thumbnails].jpg" alt="anastasia [thumbnails].jpg"/>Anastasia Zavodny says:
+
+Annual live births for the state of <a href="http://www.cdph.ca.gov/data/statistics/Documents/VSC-2008-0201.pdf"><i>California</i></a> were analyzed. The data were recorded on an annual basis for the years 1960 through 2008, with no missing observations. Throughout this period, there is evidence of three birth "booms" - one from the late 1960's until 1970, a large "boom" from the mid 1970's until 1990, and lastly, one from the late 1990's through 2007. Overall, the number of live births in California has increased by nearly twenty thousand from the recorded level in 1960. The last recorded observation indicates that a downward trend in state-wide births may be beginning. Preliminary evidence appears to support this hypothesis; however, there is a high likelihood that the state will soon experience another "boom" in births, as those children born during the beginning portion of the large "boom" of the mid 1970's  through 1990 are now of peak child-bearing age.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/anastasia_blog1.JPG" alt="anastasia_blog1.JPG"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-07-california-regular-retail-gasoline-price-forecast.html b/_posts/2010-03-07-california-regular-retail-gasoline-price-forecast.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..e06d91e2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-07-california-regular-retail-gasoline-price-forecast.html
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: California Regular Retail Gasoline Price Forecast
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size:85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span><hr>
+
+<p> <img class="alignleft" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/bin [thumbnails].jpg" alt="bin [thumbnails].jpg"/>Bin Ren says:
+
+The data is about California regular retail gasoline prices. Regular gasoline is the gasoline having an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. The data consists of 510 weekly California regular all formulations retail gasoline prices from May 22, 2000 to Feb 22, 2010 and are collected by telephone from a sample of approximately 900 retail gasoline outlets. The price includes all taxes and is the pump price paid by a consumer as of 8:00 a.m. Monday. The data is shown in the picture below.  My forecast (95% interval) of regular all formulations retail gasoline price in week 515 (Mar 29 2010) and week 540 (Sep 20 2010) is 285.4428 (235,335), and 340 (100, 480).
+
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/Bin_blog1_pic.jpeg" alt="Bin_blog1_pic.jpeg"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-07-lake-temperature-forecast.html b/_posts/2010-03-07-lake-temperature-forecast.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..37a5cd99
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-07-lake-temperature-forecast.html
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Lake temperature forecast
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size:85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span><hr>
+
+<p> <img class="alignleft" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/hamid [thumbnails].jpg" alt="hamid [thumbnails].jpg"/>Hamid Ghofrani says:
+
+The surface temperatures (in Celsius) for lakes Michigan, Tahoe and Caspian were recorded by NASA via satellite on a random number of days for each month starting from January of 1985 and ending on December of 2008. The daily measurements were recorded at either noon or midnight or both in a random fashion. For Lake Michigan, My one month forecast (95% interval) for January 2009 and the one year forecast for 2009 are 3 (2.6,3.8) and 12 (11,13.14) respectively. The plot of the lake temperatures (in Celsius) for all the three lakes along with their trend component (after removing the annual seasonal component from the data are shown below.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/hamid-blog1.jpg" alt="hamid-blog1.jpg"/>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-08-forecast-of-plasma-glucose-levels.html b/_posts/2010-03-08-forecast-of-plasma-glucose-levels.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..e15aabe5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-08-forecast-of-plasma-glucose-levels.html
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Forecast of Plasma Glucose Levels
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size:85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span><hr>
+
+<p> <img class="alignleft" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/susie [thumbnails].jpg" alt="susie [thumbnails].jpg"/>Susie Kang says:
+
+Blood glucose levels over three periods of 7 days were collected from 86 insulin-dependent individuals and analyzed to provide insight on diabetes management, with respect to insulin dosing.  Transcutaneous sensors, which were inserted in the abdominal region, collected glycated glucose level information every 5 minutes, for 7 days.  This information was initially masked during the first period, but later revealed to the subjects.  The figure below shows hourly blood glucose levels for a patient over a period of one week.  My forecast (95% interval) for plasma blood glucose levels at 3 AM and 6 PM are 150 and 200, respectively. 
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/susie.jpg" alt="susie.jpg"/>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-10-a-million-a-billion-a-trillion-is-there-a-difference.html b/_posts/2010-03-10-a-million-a-billion-a-trillion-is-there-a-difference.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..6009949d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-10-a-million-a-billion-a-trillion-is-there-a-difference.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: A million, a billion, a trillion - is there a difference?
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+It annoyed me when Congress spent time discussing the bonuses paid to bankers of failed companies. Although this is a despicable practice, there are much bigger issues to discuss. Certainly there are reasons Congress spent time on this issue including, but not limited to, the relative ease of understanding the bonuses relative to, say, understanding our economy and the reasons for collapse. Still I think it is a reasonable request that Congress spend their time in proportion to the fiscal effect the topic has on the American people. But when we are talking about 150 billion in bonuses paid to bankers versus 1.5 trillion for the bail-out, it is hard to understand how much bigger 1.5 trillion is than 150 billion. After all, they are both big numbers. The graphic below provides a representation of a million versus a billion versus a trillion where a million is represented by one pixel (in the original picture, click on this picture to be taken to the original).
+
+<a href="http://i.imgur.com/C5hAo.gif"><img class="aligncenter" title="1.5 Trillion" src="http://i.imgur.com/C5hAo.gif" alt="" width="580" height="740" /></a>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-10-postdoc-position-at-umass-amherst.html b/_posts/2010-03-10-postdoc-position-at-umass-amherst.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..3c3e60b0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-10-postdoc-position-at-umass-amherst.html
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Postdoc position at UMass-Amherst
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Jobs
+layout: post
+---
+From the inbox. A postdoc position at UMass-Amherst.
+
+
+<blockquote>Dear colleagues,
+
+We have a postdoc position we haven't filled yet.  Please pass this along to interested students.  At this point, they should get in touch directly with me, soon, instead of going through mathjobs.  Due to NSF regulations, we need a US citizen or permanent resident.
+
+Michael
+
+
+
+
+
+==========================================================
+Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Five College consortium (Amherst, Hampshire, Mount Holyoke, and Smith Colleges and the University of Massachusetts Amherst).  Duties include teaching at the liberal arts colleges, research at the University of Massachusetts, and consulting throughout the Five Colleges.  Three years.  A Ph.D. in Statistics and experience with applied statistics are required.  Ideal for a new PhD to explore careers in large and small academic institutions.
+
+Applications should be submitted online at http://www.mathjobs.org. Applicants should provide a curriculum vita, evidence of strength in teaching and research, and arrange for three letters of recommendation. For additional information please contact Michael Lavine (lavine@math.umass.edu or 413-545-0560). Funding from NSF.  US citizens and permanent residents preferred.  Applications completed before December 16, 2009 will receive full consideration. UMass Amherst is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.  Women and members of minority groups are encouraged to apply.
+===========================================================</blockquote>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-10-r-videos.html b/_posts/2010-03-10-r-videos.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..21e52206
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-10-r-videos.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: R videos
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+Found on Christian Robert's <a href="http://xianblog.wordpress.com/2010/03/10/introducing-r-on-video/" target="_blank">blog</a>, here is a set of <a href="http://dist.stat.tamu.edu/pub/rvideos/" target="_blank">introductory R videos</a>.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-15-march-madness.html b/_posts/2010-03-15-march-madness.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..82a1c191
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-15-march-madness.html
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: March madness
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+It's that time of year again. If anybody in SB has a pool that I can join, let me know. And, if you do, probably stop reading at this point.
+
+For the rest of you, here is <a href="http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/article/ncaa-brackets-how-to-win-your-march-madness-pool/403055/?tag=main;related-link-0" target="_blank">an article</a> from <a title="moneywatch" href="http://moneywatch.bnet.com/" target="_blank">CBS's moneywatch</a> that has quotes from yours truly about how to win office pools. Fortunately I am accurately quoted and the article's author <a href="http://moneywatch.bnet.com/search/?q=Sarah+Lorge+Butler">Sarah Lorge Butler</a> did a very good job of getting all the information accurate. The only thing I would add is that the scoring scheme in the pool is key which is where the site <a title="Poologic.com" href="http://www.poologic.com/" target="_blank">poologic.com</a> comes in handy.
+
+Here are my quotes from the article:
+<blockquote>According to efficient market theory, “all the available information about teams is available in the Vegas odds, and so things like location and injuries are already taken into account without having to look into the details,” says Jarad Niemi, an assistant professor in the department of statistics and applied probability at UC Santa Barbara.
+
+...
+
+But picking against favorites isn’t just a good betting strategy — it’s also very much in the spirit of March Madness. “It’s fun to watch these games you could otherwise care less about when you’re rooting for the underdog,” Niemi says. “At worst, it does no damage to your pool sheet; at best, it can help you.”
+
+Will you feel like an idiot if you’re not in the running going into the Final Four? Possibly. You can handle it. Says Niemi: “If Kansas goes the whole way, everyone else will say, ‘Couldn’t you see this coming?’ And you tell them, ‘Wait till next year.’”</blockquote>
+My favorite quote is the middle one. It really is fun being contrarian since you can almost always cheer for the underdog and it will help your pool entry.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-17-a-tale-of-two-states-birth-data-for-california-and-mississippi.html b/_posts/2010-03-17-a-tale-of-two-states-birth-data-for-california-and-mississippi.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..0b202df2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-17-a-tale-of-two-states-birth-data-for-california-and-mississippi.html
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: "A Tale of Two States: Birth data for California and Mississippi"
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size: 85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span>
+
+<hr /><img class="alignleft" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/anastasia [thumbnails].jpg" alt="anastasia [thumbnails].jpg" />Anastasia Zavodny says:
+
+As discussed in my <a href="https://gauchospace.ucsb.edu/courses/mod/assignment/pstat262_blog1.txt">previous blog entry</a>, the analyzed data is that of yearly births for the states of California and Mississippi. These data are available and here presented from 1960 through 2008, with no missing observations. While California exhibits evidence of three birth "booms" over this time period, Mississippi births decline over the decade of the 1960's and enter a state of flux, or "waves," over the following decades. In both states it appears a downward trend is beginning in births. It would be predicted that in the short-term forecast the births in both states will decrease to 550,000 and 42,000 respectively. These numbers are expected to again increase, as the children born in the "boom" of the 1980's begin having children of their own.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/anastasia_blog2.JPG" alt="anastasia_blog2.jpg"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-17-california-regular-retail-gasoline-price-forecast-2.html b/_posts/2010-03-17-california-regular-retail-gasoline-price-forecast-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..ada9e434
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-17-california-regular-retail-gasoline-price-forecast-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: California Regular Retail Gasoline Price Forecast
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size: 85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span>
+
+<hr /><img class="alignleft" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/bin [thumbnails].jpg" alt="bin [thumbnails].jpg" />Bin Ren says:
+
+My model finally includes local level component and seasonal component. The period of seasonal compenent is 52 weeks, because every year there are periodic transportation peaks which lead to a high demand of gasoline. I use two harmonics in the model, due to the fact in my <a href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/07/california-regular-retail-gasoline-price-forecast/">previous post</a>previous post that there are overall two peaks for summer and winter. Some rare events such as economic ressesion, are considered as random noise. Based on my model, forecast (95% interval) of regular all formulations retail gasoline price in week 515 (Mar 29 2010 which is 5 week after last observation) and week 540 (Sep 20 2010 which is 30 weeks after last observation) is 319.1046 (285.5028, 356.6612), and 319.7633 (244.3232, 418.4972).
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/Bin_blog2_pic.jpg" alt="Bin_blog2_pic.jpg"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-17-forecast-of-the-minimum-temperature-in-goleta-based-on-a-sutse-model.html b/_posts/2010-03-17-forecast-of-the-minimum-temperature-in-goleta-based-on-a-sutse-model.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..098091b5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-17-forecast-of-the-minimum-temperature-in-goleta-based-on-a-sutse-model.html
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Forecast of the minimum temperature in Goleta based on a SUTSE model
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size: 85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span>
+
+<hr /><img class="alignleft" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/gabe [thumbnails].jpg" alt="gabe [thumbnails].jpg" />Gabriele Lillacci says:
+
+As explained in <a href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/06/forecast-of-the-minimum-temperature-in-goleta/">Blog 1</a>, the model and the forecasts that are described in the following are based on data of the daily minimum temperature measured at 3 airport locations in Southern California. Two remarks on the data set are in order. (1) Data for January 2010 became available in the past few days, so this information was included as well. (2) For reasons of computational feasibility, only a subset of the data set could be actually used. For the above reasons, the actual inference and forecast process was based on daily observations from 1/1/2008 to 1/31/2010.
+
+The modeling was carried out in two stages. First, a univariate dynamic linear model (DLM) was fit for each location. Then, in order to take full advantage of the structure of the data set, the individual models were combined to produce a seemingly unrelated time series equations (SUTSE) model. Each univariate DLM contains a Fourier form seasonal component (with a period of 365 and 2 harmonics) and a local level component. The periodicity of the data seems to be constant over time, therefore the evolution variance of the seasonal component is set to 0. On the other hand, the evolution variance of the local level component and the overall observation variance are parameters to be estimated. The SUSTE model was obtained by combining the three univariate DLMs and by allowing ``crosstalk'' among them. Both evolution covariances in the local level components and observation covariances were allowed.
+
+Inference for the SUTSE model was performed by Gibbs sampling. Four Markov chains were run starting from different initial conditions, each for 5000 iterations. The first 1000 iterations of each chain were discarded as burn-in. No lack of convergence was detected using the Gelman-Rubin diagnostic. Mixing was assessed by looking at trace plots and by computing ergodic means.
+
+The figure below shows a one-year-ahead forecast of the daily minimum temperature in Goleta based on the total 16000 post burn-in MCMC samples. The thick black central line represents the median, while the dashed lines show the 95% credible interval. The red lines highlight the two chosen forecast dates, 3/5/2010 and 11/30/2010 (see <a href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/06/forecast-of-the-minimum-temperature-in-goleta/">Blog 1</a> for details). The two forecasts (95% interval) are 41.82 (6.09, 77.56) and 40.42 (-60.78, 141.67) respectively.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/gabe_blog2.jpg" alt="gabe_blog2.jpg"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-18-analysis-and-forecast-of-approval-rating-data.html b/_posts/2010-03-18-analysis-and-forecast-of-approval-rating-data.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..253f989b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-18-analysis-and-forecast-of-approval-rating-data.html
@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Analysis and forecast of approval rating data
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size: 85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span>
+
+<hr /><img class="alignleft" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/rich [thumbnails].jpg" alt="rich [thumbnails].jpg" />Richard Harang says:
+
+<p>As discussed my <a href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/05/analysis-of-approval-rating-data/">previous post</a> on the topic, we are attempting to analyze both President Obama's approval ratings and the biases of various pollsters, and forecast them over the next three to twelve weeks.</p> 
+<p> 
+We modeled both Obama's approval rating and the biases of the pollsters through a series of independent random walks with unknown variance, and considered the observable output of each poll to be the sum of two unknown processes evolving in time &ndash; Obama's "true" approval rating and the pollster's bias at the time the survey concluded &ndash; and an error term with unknown variance and unknown covariance between the pollsters.
+</p> 
+<p> 
+Our original goal was to obtain forecasts for 3 and 12 weeks of approval rating data.  This was accomplished, however the combined variances of the approval rating and the pollsters are so large that the corresponding prediction intervals are relatively uninformative.  
+</p> 
+<p> 
+The table below shows our predictions for observations from each pollster after 3 and 12 weeks, as well as the estimate for the true approval rating.  
+</p> 
+<table border="2" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="6" rules="groups" frame="hsides"> 
+<col align="left"></col><col align="left"></col><col align="left"></col> 
+<thead> 
+<tr><th></th><th>3 Week</th><th>12 Week</th></tr> 
+</thead> 
+<tbody> 
+<tr><td>Gallup</td><td>51.6 (33.8, 69.5)</td><td>51.5 (31.4, 72.1)</td></tr> 
+<tr><td>Rasmussen</td><td>47.2 (30.3, 64.2)</td><td>47.3 (27.7, 66.8)</td></tr> 
+<tr><td>CNN</td><td>50.3 (31.8, 69.1)</td><td>50.5 (29.6, 71.7)</td></tr> 
+<tr><td>CBS</td><td>46.6 (29.4, 63.6)</td><td>46.6 (27.0, 66.1)</td></tr> 
+<tr><td>FOX news</td><td>49.1 (28.1, 70.2)</td><td>48.9 (23.3, 75.0)</td></tr> 
+</tbody> 
+<tbody> 
+<tr><td>True approval rating</td><td>49.0 (41.7, 56.1)</td><td>49.0 (39.2, 58.9)</td></tr> 
+</tbody> 
+</table> 
+ 
+ 
+ 
+<p> 
+The two plots below present the 95% prediction intervals for Rasmussen and CBS, the two polls identified as the most often biased, for three and twelve weeks into the future.  The estimated "true" approval rating over the past 59 weeks with 95% credible sets is plotted on both figures for reference.
+</p> 
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/richard_blog2.png" alt="richard_blog2.png"/>
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/richard_blog2-2.png" alt="richard_blog2-2.png"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-18-exploring-factors-predicting-academic-achievement-in-college.html b/_posts/2010-03-18-exploring-factors-predicting-academic-achievement-in-college.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..84f77a1c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-18-exploring-factors-predicting-academic-achievement-in-college.html
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Exploring Factors Predicting Academic Achievement in College
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size: 85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span>
+
+<hr /><img class="alignleft" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/igor [thumbnails].jpg" alt="igor [thumbnails].jpg" />Igor Himelfarb says:
+
+Exploring Factors Predicting Academic Achievement in College
+
+To predict first year college GPA (FYGPA) in college-bound senior, a dynamic regression model was constructed where dependent series were FYGPA and independent series contained three SAT scores (Critical Reading, Math, and Writing) and high school GPA (HSGPA).  Due to the structure of the data, mean value instead of the actual values for each variable was extracted at each time point and used in the analysis.  The model presumed not to have linear trend or seasonality. A plot of two series (Yt and Xt) against time are presented in <a href="https://gauchospace.ucsb.edu/courses/mod/assignment/view.php?id=89781">Blog 1</a>.  The nature of the data seems to support a simple, straight line regression where θt represents the regression parameter vector.  A one-step forecast is presented in the attached file.  
+
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/igor_blog2.jpg" alt="igor_blog2.jpg"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-18-intraday-stock-prices-forecast.html b/_posts/2010-03-18-intraday-stock-prices-forecast.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c0311b3f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-18-intraday-stock-prices-forecast.html
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Intraday stock prices forecast
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size: 85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span>
+
+<hr /><img class="alignleft" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/varvara [thumbnails].jpg" alt="varvara [thumbnails].jpg" />Varvara Kulikova says:
+
+<p class="p1">In my <a href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/06/intraday-stock-price-forecast/">previous post</a> the multivariate time series are presented for three stocks.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p> 
+<p class="p2"><br></p> 
+<p class="p1">To model this high frequency data a simple multivariate Dynamic Linear Model had been used in the form of SUTSE (Seemingly unrelated Time Series Equations) model with linear trend component. Unknown parameters in the model are observation variance-covarince and evolution variance-covarince matrices. To perform the analysis a Bayesian approach in the form of Gibbs sampler had been employed. Prior distributions for the parameters are wishart with initial values and certainty defined based on the data. Missing observations had been imputed for time points with at least one missing observation (out of three) in the Gibbs sampler aswell.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p> 
+<p class="p2"><br></p> 
+<p class="p1">Forecast (in red) for 5 seconds ahead with corresponding confidence intervals (green dashed lines) is illustrated on the picture along with actual values for these<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>future 5 seconds (in black). The forecast is based on the first 300 observations (5min) of the original dataset. Values for DELL,IBM and MSFT stock prices at 9:35:01am EST with 95% confidence bounds are 15.21492 (15.14671,15.28314) , 119.4038 (119.3249, 119.4828), 25.40109 (25.32586,25.47633). Although, the actual values at 9:35:01am EST are NA (DELL), 119.4233 (IBM) and 25.42 (MSFT).</p>
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/varvara_blog2.jpg" alt="varvara_blog2.jpg"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-19-daily-exchange-rates-forecast-using-dlm-model.html b/_posts/2010-03-19-daily-exchange-rates-forecast-using-dlm-model.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..6abb9f09
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-19-daily-exchange-rates-forecast-using-dlm-model.html
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Daily Exchange Rates Forecast (Using DLM model)
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size: 85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span>
+
+<hr /><img class="alignleft" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/chi-yang [thumbnails].jpg" alt="chi-yang [thumbnails].jpg" />Chi-yang Chiu says:
+
+
+Consider the daily Taiwan/US and Philippine/US exchange rates, plotted in my <a href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/05/daily-exchange-rates-forecast/">previous post</a> SUTSE bivariate local growth model are used to analysis these two time series.
+
+The short term model based forecast (95% interval) for the exchange rates of TWD and PHP to USD on March 11 2010 are 32.15 (31.63, 32.74) and 46.36 (45.30, 47.44) respectively. And the long term model based forecast (95% interval) on May 27 2010 are 32.22(29.07, 35.71) and 46.05(41.34, 51.31).
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/chiyang-blog2.jpeg" alt="chiyang-blog2.jpeg"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-19-lake-temperature-forecast-2.html b/_posts/2010-03-19-lake-temperature-forecast-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d23350c7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-19-lake-temperature-forecast-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Lake Temperature forecast
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size: 85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span>
+
+<hr /><img class="alignleft" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/hamid [thumbnails].jpg" alt="hamid [thumbnails].jpg" />Hamid Ghofrani says:
+
+The temperature of three lakes( lake Michigan, Lake Tahoe and Lake caspian) were presented at the <a href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/07/">previous post</a>. The multivariate Dynamic Linear Model method was used To model the temperatures for these lakes. Due to the multivariate nature of the data,the SUTSE (Seemingly unrelated Time Series Equations) model including linear trend and seasonal components were used. Within Bayesian framework, Gibbs sampling with wishart priors was used to estimate the  unknown parameters (the observation and evolution variance/covariance matrices for the linear trend components). No Covariance structure (both for the observation and evolution) was considered for the seasonal component. The forcasted temperature and their %95 confidence bounds for the one step ahead future month( Jan 2009), all in Celsious are as following . Lake Michigan 8.9(6.15,11.62), Lake Tahoe 11.35(8.74,13.88) and Lake Caspian 15.43(13.4,17.4). Because of very strong seasonality, the deseasend temperature(mean level temperature) of the three lakes for the two months ahead forecasts( January and February of 2009) are shown below. 
+
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/hamid_blog2.jpg" alt="hamid_blog2.jpg"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-19-modeling-gas-prices-in-la.html b/_posts/2010-03-19-modeling-gas-prices-in-la.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..8eb40a42
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-19-modeling-gas-prices-in-la.html
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Modeling Gas Prices in LA
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size: 85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span>
+
+<hr /><img class="alignleft" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/nate [thumbnails].jpg" alt="nate [thumbnails].jpg" />Nathan Bennett says:
+
+Previoiusly I posted about the weekly gas prices in LA and weekly oil prices in the U.S.  See my <a href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/06/studying-gas-prices-in-la/">previous post</a> for a detailed description of the data sets that I am studying.  For this analysis I used a multivariate linear trend model with a seasonal component. The linear trend portion of the model was allowed to change with time.  This portion of the model estimates the mean effect and slope for the data at each time point, and allows for a dependency in the evolution of the mean effect and slope.  Since gas prices peak each year during the summer months, I used the first two harmonics of a Fourier seasonal model with a fixed period of 52 weeks.  Moreover, I did not consider any evolution variance (or covariance) for this part of the model.  This combined model does a good job modeling the data and gives reasonable predicted values.  The model yields gas price predictions (95% Intervals) of $3.09 ($2.86, $3.32) for January 11 and $3.86 ($1.64, $6.08) for March 15; the model yields oil price predictions (95% Intervals) of $75.32 ($70.40, $80.23) for January 11 and $96.47 ($40.18, $152.77) for March 15.  The figure below is a plot of the data and has these predicted values and bounds.  While the model does give rather reasonable predictions for one and ten weeks into the future, the error bounds for these predicted values grow very rapidly.  Hence, the one week estimate is a pretty good estimate of the prices, but the ten week prediction is probably not very accurate.
+
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/nate_blog2.jpg" alt="nate_blog2.jpg"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-22-model-based-forecast-means-of-suicides-and-homicides.html b/_posts/2010-03-22-model-based-forecast-means-of-suicides-and-homicides.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..b18c5f7e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-22-model-based-forecast-means-of-suicides-and-homicides.html
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Model-Based Forecast Means of Suicides and Homicides
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 262
+layout: post
+---
+<span style="font-size: 85%;">This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (<a title="Student blogging background" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2010/03/03/student-forecasts/" target="_self">background post</a>).
+Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.</span>
+
+<hr /><img class="alignleft" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/susie [thumbnails].jpg" alt="susie [thumbnails].jpg" />Susie Kang says:
+
+Since the data for both time series—annual gun-related suicides and homicides--show neither a linear trend nor seasonality, the data are best described as a local level model, or a random walk with errors.
+
+For 2005 (1 year out), the model-based forecast mean for gun-related suicides is 0.958, with 95% confidence interval (0.231, 1.685), and the model-based forecast mean for gun-related homicides is 0.196, with 95% confidence interval (-0.120, 0.512).
+
+For 2014 (10 years beyond the last time point of the model), the model-based forecast mean for gun-related suicides is 0.958, the same as that for 2005, but with a larger 95% confidence interval (-0.420, 2.335).  Similarly, the 2014 model-based forecast mean for gun-related homicides is 0.958, the same as that for 2005, but with larger 95% confidence interval (-0.185, 0.577).
+
+In my <a href=" http://pstatmc.blogspot.com/2010/03/intro-forecast-of-suicides-and.html">previous post</a>, my predictions had unrealistically tighter bounds for 2005 and 2014: 0.8 suicides with 95% confidence interval (0.7, 0.9) and 0.15 homicides, with 95% confidence interval (0.1, 0.2).
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/susie_blog2.jpg" alt="susie_blog2.jpg"/>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-23-priors-are-model-extensions.html b/_posts/2010-03-23-priors-are-model-extensions.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..1f541a93
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-23-priors-are-model-extensions.html
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Priors are model extensions
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Modeling
+layout: post
+---
+I have recently finished grading the final projects for my PSTAT 262MC course _Applied Bayesian Time Series_. The students had in common a desire to make their priors as non-informative as possible. Given the student's lack of exposure to Bayesian methodologies, about half had taken a 10-week introduction to Bayesian methods, I guess I shouldn't be surprised. But I realize that I didn't make my views on the topic clear and convincing.
+
+This <a title="priors as model components" href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2010/03/more_on_misunde.html" target="_blank">post</a> by Andrew Gelman is exactly how I think about priors. Here is the quote:
+<blockquote>1. Siegfried describes prior probability as "an informed guess about the expected probability of something in advance of the study." He immediately qualifies this: "Often this prior probability is more than a mere guess -- it could be based, for instance, on previous studies." Still, I disagree with his first sentence. I agree that sometimes--often!--a prior distributions is not constructed using previous studies. But when it's not, I'd call it a model or an assumption, not a guess.
+
+Why does this matter? Mere semantics? Not quite.<strong> I put the prior distribution on the same philosophical dimension as the likelihood </strong>[emphasis added by me].<strong> </strong>I have no problem with you calling my prior distribution an "informed guess" if you'll also describe your normal distribution or your logistic regression as "informed guesses." My point: the prior distribution, and also the likelihood (in most cases) are assumptions, they're mathematical models, not really "guesses" at the truth so much as useful approximations to the truth. Or, more to the point, approximations to the truth that give useful inferences for quantities of interest.</blockquote>
+To take an example from class. Consider an example where you have a scalar outcome variable and a scalar covariate for observations that are taken in time. One possibility is to model the data using simple linear regression with no intercept. This model has two parameters: the regression coefficient and the error variance. A Bayesian analysis for this problem requires specifying a prior on these two parameters and a non-informative prior is proportional to the inverse of the variance.
+
+Now, an alternative model is dynamic regression with no intercept. Specifically the regression coefficient is now allowed to varying in time and we assume a random walk for its variation. This model requires priors on three different parameters: the initial regression coefficient, the evolution variance, and the error variance. In analogy with the static regression, we could place a joint prior on the initial regression coefficient and the error variance that is non-informative and proportional to the inverse of the error variance. The question is: what prior should we place on the evolution variance?
+
+At one extreme, a non-informative prior on the evolution variance could be used and would allow the regression parameter to vary however the data sees fit. On the other extreme, we could use a point-mass at zero prior which is equivalent to the static regression model. In the middle, a prior that enforces small but non-zero values will make the regression parameter vary smoothly. So the choice of prior is really a choice over how we believe the model should behave. If we were okay with the static regression model, but wanted some flexibility for a time-varying regression parameters, then allowing a dynamic model with an informative prior on the evolution variance is a good approach. There is no need for the statistical modeler to immediately jump to a non-informative prior for all parameters.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-03-25-technical-writing.html b/_posts/2010-03-25-technical-writing.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..fb480e4d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-03-25-technical-writing.html
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Technical writing
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- UCSB
+layout: post
+---
+As I come off grading the reports turned in for my Applied Bayesian Time Series course and as I head into the next quarter where I will teach Statistical Consulting, I have been thinking about how to describe good writing to students. Now, I really claim to be no expert on the topic, but I think that I can generally avoid many of the obvious pitfalls. These pitfalls are usually not obvious until somebody points them out at which point you cannot believe you ever fell into them in the first place.
+
+It was a happy coincidence that a blog I normally read, <a title="Environmental economics" href="http://www.env-econ.net/" target="_blank">environmental economics</a>, posted some advice for `<a title="Economical writing" href="http://www.env-econ.net/2010/03/economical-writing.html" target="_blank">economical writing</a>.' In particular, I liked this point
+<blockquote>"5. Tables are writing." This is a big one for me. One of my committee members told me that your data and regression tables should be standalone. Don't include your mnemonic in the list of variables; i.e., use "Smoke less" instead of "SMKLSS."</blockquote>
+This is relevant for figures as well. The reader should not need to read the text to understand the figure. This means that the axis labels, legends, and caption should tell the story. Some of the points I just don't understand
+<blockquote>"15. Watch out for bad words." For example: via, intra, and/or, respectively, thus, overall, basic, factor, etc. We had a nice discussion of "respectively."</blockquote>
+Huh? Perhaps this is particular to how these words are used, but I don't think they are inherently <em>bad</em> in their own right.
+
+I am a fan of <a title="Strunk &amp; White" href="http://www.bartleby.com/141/" target="_blank">Strunk &amp; White</a> for their brevity. They boil down English grammar into a few specific rules and principles. Of course, there are always times that rules need to be broken.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-04-20-ucsb-statistics-ranked-55th.html b/_posts/2010-04-20-ucsb-statistics-ranked-55th.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..004a9c30
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-04-20-ucsb-statistics-ranked-55th.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: UCSB Statistics ranked 55th
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- UCSB
+layout: post
+---
+The 2010 US News &amp; World Report is out for graduate school rankings. In the statistics category, <a title="US News &amp; World Reprot" href="http://grad-schools.usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/best-graduate-schools/top-statistics-schools/rankings/page+3" target="_blank">UCSB is ranked 55th</a> in the country with a composite score of 2.5 (the top school had 4.9). This is the ranking for graduate schools as I surmised by the URL, so clearly we have some work to improve our ranking in that category.
+
+It is nice to see that statistics has its own category within Science schools. 
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Science Schools" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/science-schools.png" alt="" width="437" height="220" />
diff --git a/_posts/2010-05-03-post-doc-opportunity.html b/_posts/2010-05-03-post-doc-opportunity.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..08629dac
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-05-03-post-doc-opportunity.html
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Post-doc opportunity
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Jobs
+- Statistics
+- Systems Biology
+layout: post
+---
+From the inbox:
+
+
+
+<blockquote>As a result of recent research grant awards there are outstanding opportunities at the Inference Group of the University of Glasgow for two ambitious post-doctoral research associates with an excellent research background in computational statistics. Both of these posts are of three years duration in the first place. A further post-doctoral position will become available within the group later in the year.
+
+The Inference Research Group at Glasgow is at the forefront of developing advanced statistical methodology for scientific applications in particular at the life-sciences interface and presents tremendous substantive collaborative opportunities with major biological research groups in Inflammatory Response, Cancer Research, Pathway Signaling, Parasitology, Cardiac Systems, Plant Biology, and Medical Statistics.  The group led by M. Girolami is very well resourced with current research income in excess of 2M and two dedicated high-performance computing clusters supporting seven post-doctoral researchers and six PhD candidates.
+
+Informal enquiries and further details are available from Prof Mark Girolami (girolami@dcs.gla.ac.uk)
+
+Position. 1. Research Associate
+We seek a post-doctoral research associate to work on the development and application of advanced statistical methodology for nonlinear dynamical system models of biochemical processes. This will be as part of an exciting and ambitious integrated multi-disciplinary project studying the metabolism of the parasitic protozoan Trypanosoma brucei. The project will be led by Professor Mark Girolami at the University of Glasgow.
+
+The purpose of the position is to develop theory and methods for appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based inference over nonlinear differential equations that will exhibit high degrees of evolutionary redundancy.  Other areas of investigation will include model-based experiment design and software emulation as well as cluster-based computation for MCMC.
+
+The focus of application will be on practical inference over dynamic system models of metabolic and protein based regulation in trypanosomes as they respond to oxidative stress with particular emphasis on pathways implicated in redox metabolism in these parasites.
+
+The project is part of a pan-European programme to determine regulation of these pathways at the levels of transcription, translation and metabolic control in conjunction with world leading biologists.
+
+The ideal applicant will have experience in the development and application of MCMC methods for Bayesian inference, experiment design and software emulation. A genuine interest in Systems Biology is required. Some background in high performance computing development for MCMC would be preferred.
+
+This post is linked to the BBSRC funded project The Silicon Trypanasome
+
+Informal enquiries and further details are available from Prof Mark Girolami (girolami@dcs.gla.ac.uk)
+
+Position. 2. Research Associate
+We seek a post-doctoral research associate to work on developing Bayesian methods to assist in the systematic and rational choice of mathematical models describing natural systems in population and systems biology. This will be part of a collaborative three-centre BBSRC funded research project that includes the University of Glasgow, Imperial College London, and Royal Holloway University of London.
+
+The purpose of this position is to build upon the work reported in the recent Science signalling paper from the Girolami group (http://stke.sciencemag.org/content/vol3/issue113/cover.dtl) where the rationale design of biological experiments to assess the evidential support for competing signalling pathway topologies was enabled employing estimates of Bayes factors. From a methodological perspective the development of probabilistic methods for the solution of differential equations and the exploitation of the recently developed Riemann manifold Monte Carlo methods along with current advances in estimating marginal likelihoods is anticipated.
+
+The ideal applicant will have an extensive background in the development of Bayesian methodology and have recent experience at the life sciences interface.
+
+This post is linked to the BBSRC funded project Inference-based Modelling in Population and Systems Biology.
+
+Informal enquiries and further details are available from Prof Mark Girolami (girolami@dcs.gla.ac.uk)
+This post has initial funding for 36 months
+</blockquote>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2010-05-07-problem-with-notation-in-applied-bayesian-work.html b/_posts/2010-05-07-problem-with-notation-in-applied-bayesian-work.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..668d99f0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-05-07-problem-with-notation-in-applied-bayesian-work.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Problem with notation in applied Bayesian work
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Bayesian
+layout: post
+---
+One hurdle newcomers have to applied Bayesian work is understand the notation. Coming from a mathematical background, one might think that p(x) is the same function as p(y) just evaluated at x and y, respectively. Instead in Bayesian notation, these typically refer to the marginal density (or mass) function for x and y, respectively. Similarly p(x|y) is not the same function as p(y|x), but instead the first is the function describing the conditional density (or mass) function of x given y and the second is the conditional density (or mass) function of y given x. Attempts to rectify this notation seem to make the notation overly complicated and therefore, the differences are made implicit. For more discussion of this, please see <a title="Bayesian notation" href="http://lingpipe-blog.com/2009/10/13/whats-wrong-with-probability-notation/" target="_blank">this post</a>.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-05-27-japans-foot-and-mouth-outbreak.html b/_posts/2010-05-27-japans-foot-and-mouth-outbreak.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..49dbd83f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-05-27-japans-foot-and-mouth-outbreak.html
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Japan's foot-and-mouth outbreak
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Science
+layout: post
+---
+Well, if I cannot bring you any new content of my own, I can at least bring you disease outbreak news from around the world. There is a current outbreak of foot-and-mouth in Japan causing wide-spread havoc with both the livestock it infects and the politicians charged with keeping them safe. A news article from <a title="Japan's foot-and-mouth" href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/health/2010-05/25/c_13315157.htm" target="_blank">here</a>.
+<blockquote><span>TOKYO, May 25 (Xinhua) -- Japan's Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Hirotaka Akamatsu, apologized Tuesday for the government's handling of the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Miyazaki Prefecture, southern Japan, having previously said his conscience was clear.
+
+"I feel deeply sorry that it has spread this much," Akamatsu told a session of the House of Representatives committee on agriculture, forestry and fisheries.
+
+The farm minister, according to sources close to the matter, was forced to offer an official apology as the epidemic has caused damage to both livestock and the livelihoods of farmers in Miyazaki Prefecture, on a level not seen in Japan before. "I have done what was deemed necessary," said Akamatsu referring to the culling of more than 300,000 cows and pigs in the Miyazaki area and the government's decision to slaughter 49 stud bulls essential for the production of the region's lucrative, high-end Wagyu beef.
+
+With just five prized stud bulls left, the local livestock industry has been dealt a devastating hammer blow it may never fully recover from.
+
+Akamatsu, who took an overseas trip after the outbreak of the disease was announced, expressed his intention to fully investigate the government's handling of the outbreak and efforts to contain the spread of the disease, once the situation is fully under control.
+
+"It is necessary to examine if the handling was really appropriate," Akamatsu said in response to questions by an opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmaker.
+
+Akamatsu, who previously remarked he has "nothing at all to reflect on" over the issue, will face a no-confidence motion filed against him by the main opposition LDP as early as this week.
+
+</span></blockquote>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-06-23-valencia-9-invited-program.html b/_posts/2010-06-23-valencia-9-invited-program.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..dcf87372
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-06-23-valencia-9-invited-program.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Valencia 9 invited program
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- Bayesian
+layout: post
+---
+While reading Christian Robert's blog <a title="Valencia 9 highlights" href="http://xianblog.wordpress.com/2010/06/23/comments-for-valencia-9/" target="_blank">highlighting some of the discussion of the invited program for Valencia 9</a>, I realized that the <a title="Valencia 9 program" href="http://www.bayesian.org/events/valencia/valenciam.html" target="_blank">entire invited program</a> was available on the Valencia website. For anybody who is interested in the cutting-edge of Bayesian statistics, this meeting is the premiere source and it is great to have free online access to the publications on the Valencia website.
+
+In particular I'd like to highlight <a title="Mark Huber's homepage" href="http://www.cmc.edu/pages/faculty/MHuber/" target="_blank">Mark Huber</a>'s paper entitled <a title="TPA paper" href="http://www.uv.es/bernardo/Huber.pdf" target="_blank">Using TPA for Bayesian inference</a>. I highlight it not because it is a brilliant paper, although it might be....Mark is certainly brilliant, but instead because TPA in the title stands for `Tootsie Pop Algorithm.' I kid you not. Crazy Bayesians!
diff --git a/_posts/2010-06-25-bugs-in-packages-contributed-to-r.html b/_posts/2010-06-25-bugs-in-packages-contributed-to-r.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..b5b2acec
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-06-25-bugs-in-packages-contributed-to-r.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Bugs in packages contributed to R
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+I have taught a <a title="R short course" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/teaching/introduction-to-statistical-analysis-in-r/" target="_self">short-course</a> and a seminar on an introduction to R for folks at the <a title="NRRI" href="http://www.nrri.umn.edu/" target="_blank">Natural Resources Research Institute</a> and for the <a title="QMSS" href="http://www.qmss.ucsb.edu/" target="_blank">Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences </a>here at UCSB, respectively. I espouse the free and open source nature of R as a virtue as well as access to hundreds (thousands?) of contributed packages available from CRAN (and of course packages not available on CRAN). Since contributed packages are not error checked other than the checks that CRAN makes, I always get asked the question about `how can you trust a package?' My answer to this question has been two-folds: 1) check it versus something that you know works and 2) if it has been around for a while then chances are that errors have been found and corrected. Any thoughts about other ways to respond?
+
+I thought about this recently when reading Christian Robert's blog <a title="Robert schoolmath" href="http://xianblog.wordpress.com/2010/06/14/bug-in-schoolmath/" target="_blank">pointing out a post about errors in the package `schoolmath'. </a> This was actually reported on a<a title="Gunther schoolmath" href="http://perfdynamics.blogspot.com/2010/06/primes-in-r-part-iii-schoolmath-is.html" target="_blank"> blog post by Neil Gunther</a>. The problem involves finding prime numbers, so be wary!
diff --git a/_posts/2010-07-01-classic-statistics-articles.html b/_posts/2010-07-01-classic-statistics-articles.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..cfd3958f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-07-01-classic-statistics-articles.html
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: draft
+published: false
+title: Classic statistics articles
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+This page is more of a bookmark for me, b
diff --git a/_posts/2010-09-15-obtaining-quick-bibtex-information.html b/_posts/2010-09-15-obtaining-quick-bibtex-information.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..dadaa940
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-09-15-obtaining-quick-bibtex-information.html
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: obtaining quick bibtex information
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+tags: 
+- LaTeX
+layout: post
+---
+I have been gone for a while, but I hope my whole readership hasn't left (not that there was any to begin with). I decided to write after reading this <a title="db" href="http://www.cfd-online.com/Forums/main/12303-extract-bibtex-data-pdf-ps-files.html" target="_blank">discussion board pos</a>t about how to extract bibtex information from a file. The relevant entry is reproduced here:
+<blockquote>The way i do it is using the electronic god called google.Go to  scholar.google.com and and make sure to turn on show link to import  citations to bibtex in scholar preferences and type the paper name in  search bar.A sign will come below each paper ( import into bibtex ) and  if you click on it will take you to a page with citation.Copy paste into  bibtex.</blockquote>
+So go to <a title="google scholar" href="http://scholar.google.com/" target="_blank">scholar.google.com</a> and click on `Scholar preferences'. At the very bottom [at the time of this post], it says `Show links to import citations into [BibTeX].' Now, when you search for an article using scholar, an additional link is available that says `Import into BibTeX.' Click on it and you can cut-and-paste the link.
+
+Wow is that easy!
diff --git a/_posts/2010-09-20-legionnaires-outbreak-in-uk.html b/_posts/2010-09-20-legionnaires-outbreak-in-uk.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..10370212
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-09-20-legionnaires-outbreak-in-uk.html
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Legionnaires outbreak in UK
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+tags: 
+- Legionnaires
+- Science
+layout: post
+---
+There is an on-going outbreak of Legionnaires in South Wales. Currently <a title="Legionnaires outbreak" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-11375050" target="_blank">21 people have contacted Legionnaires</a> as part of this outbreak and <a title="Legionnaires outbreak" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-11375050" target="_blank">2 have died</a>.According to WHO
+<blockquote>Legionellosis is a generic term describing the pneumonic and non-pneumonic forms of infection with <em>Legionella</em>.
+
+The non-pneumonic form is an acute, self-limiting  influenza-like illness usually lasting 2-5 days. The incubation period  is from a few and up to 48 hours. The main symptoms are fever, chills,  headache, malaise and muscle pain (myalgia). No deaths are associated  with this type of infection.
+
+Legionnaires’ disease has an incubation period of two to ten  days (but up to 16 days has been recorded in some recent well-documented  outbreaks). Initially, symptoms are fever, loss of appetite, headache,  malaise and lethargy. Some patients may also have muscle pain, diarrhoea  and confusion. There is also usually an initial mild cough, but as many  as 50% of patients can present phlegm. Blood-streaked phlegm or  hemoptysis occurs in about one-third of the patients. The severity of  disease ranges from a mild cough to a rapidly fatal pneumonia. Death  occurs through progressive pneumonia with respiratory failure and/or  shock and multi-organ failure.
+
+Untreated Legionnaires’ disease usually worsens during the  first week. In common with other risk factors causing severe pneumonia,  the most frequent complications of legionellosis are respiratory  failure, shock and acute kidney and multi-organ failure. Recovery always  requires antibiotic treatment, and is usually complete, after several  weeks or months. In rare occasions, severe progressive pneumonia or  ineffective treatment for pneumonia can result brain in sequelae.
+
+The death rate as a result of legionnella is dependent on: the  severity of the disease, the appropriateness of initial anti-microbial  treatment, the setting where legionella was acquired, and host factors  (i.e. the disease is usually more serious in patients with  immuno-suppression). The case fatality rate may be as high as 40 - 80  per 100 in untreated immuno-suppressed patients and can be reduced to 5 -  30 per 100 through appropriate case management and depending on the  severity of the clinical signs and symptoms. For persons able to develop  an immune response the death rate is usually within the range of 10 -  15%.</blockquote>
+At this point the source of the disease is unknown. According to a quote in the BBC:
+<blockquote>Our investigations show that there is no single building visited by all the people linked to the outbreak. The sources, or source, are therefore likely to be industrial processes such as cooling towers.</blockquote>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-09-28-measles-outbreak-in-zimbabwe.html b/_posts/2010-09-28-measles-outbreak-in-zimbabwe.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..641aacee
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-09-28-measles-outbreak-in-zimbabwe.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Measles outbreak in Zimbabwe
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+tags: 
+- Science
+layout: post
+---
+Apparently<a title="Zimbabwe measles" href="http://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/Measles-kills-70-children-in-Zim-20100923" target="_blank"> there is an on-going outbreak of measles in Zimbabwe</a>. Here is <a title="Zimbabwe measles - WHO" href="http://www.who.int/hac/crises/zwe/sitreps/24may_2june2010/en/index.html" target="_blank">some information</a> at the World Health Organization. According to the WHO, as of the 2nd of June, there have been 8173 cases and 517 deaths. (It is unclear to me where the first linked report of 70 deaths got their information.) In response to this outbreak, a nation-wide vaccination campaign was initiated in May and concluded on June 2nd after 5 million children were vaccinated. I have no idea how to get information post June 2nd, but I'd be curious about the current state of measles in Zimbabwe. Below is a map from <a title="Summary report" href="http://www.who.int/hac/crises/zwe/sitreps/24may_2june2010/en/index.html" target="_blank">this WHO page</a> that I believe is from the May-June time frame, of course the legend is so small I can't even tell what the numbers are.
+
+<img class="aligncenter" title="Zimbabwe measles map" src="http://www.who.int/hac/crises/zwe/sitreps/zim_map_9une10web.jpg" alt="" width="210" height="148" />
diff --git a/_posts/2010-09-29-ucsb-statsappprob-ranking.html b/_posts/2010-09-29-ucsb-statsappprob-ranking.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..76509af5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-09-29-ucsb-statsappprob-ranking.html
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: UCSB Stats&AppProb Ranking
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+tags: 
+- NRC
+- Rankings
+- Statistics
+- UCSB
+layout: post
+---
+New National Research Council rankings have come out for the 2005-2006 school year. All the data are available at the <a title="Rankings" href="http://www.nap.edu/rdp/" target="_blank">National Academies Press</a> and can be downloaded for free by providing your email address (link toward bottom of the page). They provide two ranking systems: 1) a regression-based approach where relative to weights to different categories are derived by providing faculty with samples of schools to rate and 2) survey where weights to categories are directly assigned by faculty. Here are the results for the top schools (out of 61 ranked programs) as well as Duke and UCSB since I have a personal connection there.In order to get a single ranked list for each approach, I sorted first by the 5th-percentile and then sub-sorted by the 95-percentile. Frankly I don't know how to even interpret the 5th and 95th-percentiles.
+
+For the regression-based approach:
+
+[1] STANFORD UNIVERSITY
+[2] HARVARD UNIVERSITY
+[3] UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA-BERKELEY
+[4] IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
+[5] UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN-ANN ARBOR
+[6] NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY
+[7] UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON
+[8] UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO
+[9] JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
+[10] TEXAS A &amp; M UNIVERSITY
+...
+[19] DUKE UNIVERSITY
+...
+[47] UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA-SANTA BARBARA
+
+
+For the survey-weighted approach:
+
+[1] STANFORD UNIVERSITY
+[2] HARVARD UNIVERSITY
+[3] UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
+[4] UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA-BERKELEY
+[5] UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO
+[6] UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN-ANN ARBOR
+[7] CORNELL UNIVERSITY
+[8] PENN STATE UNIVERSITY
+[9] UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHAPEL HILL
+[10] UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON
+[11] IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
+[12] DUKE UNIVERSITY
+...
+[52] UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA-SANTA BARBARA
diff --git a/_posts/2010-10-13-cuda-troubles.html b/_posts/2010-10-13-cuda-troubles.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..765d7718
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-10-13-cuda-troubles.html
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: CUDA troubles
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+tags: 
+- CUDA
+- Win7
+- x64
+layout: post
+---
+This is likely a common title for a post*, but I'll use it anyway. The first roadblock I hit was trying to build an example CUDA program that came with the SDK. In particular, I think the problem is the combination of CUDA, Win7, and x64, although certainly other combinations could have the same problem. Similar to a number of individuals in <a title="first CUDA program blog post" href="http://llpanorama.wordpress.com/2008/05/21/my-first-cuda-program/" target="_blank">this blog post</a>, I had linker issues.
+
+The resolution (I think) of this problem is that I had to install the x64 compiler which did not install with Visual Studio 2008 the first time (why not??). Trying to start the upgrade from the DVD didn't work, but starting it from Add/Remove programs did. The installation required a file that is found on the Visual Studio 2008 SP1 disc, which I don't have since I downloaded SP1. So I downloaded the required file, SQLSysClrTypes.msi, and ran it. After that ran, I cancelled out of the Visual Studio upgrade which gave me an error message (suggested on some discussion board...apparently the error message is indicating something wasn't installed, but that something is exactly what the msi installed...bizarre, but I guess we're in the clear).
+
+Finally, I had to make a number of suggested changes to the properties -&gt; linker in Visual Studio for it to actual compile using the x64 information. These changes are detailed half-way down <a href="http://llpanorama.wordpress.com/2008/05/21/my-first-cuda-program/" target="_blank">this page</a>. Now, I am able to get my example project to build, although not without warnings. Now how do I run it?
+
+Did I mention that I'm consider going mac? This frustration with Microsoft is certainly increasing energy required to break the potential barrier of that transition.
+
+* I should have clarified before even attempting this CUDA blog posting that I am a naive statistical programmer. That is, I write scripts, mainly in R, MATLAB, and (rarely) C, to perform some statistical analysis and I have little understanding of what is going on under the hood. In this post in particular, I throw out words like `build' and `linker' without really understanding what I am talking about. Sure, I have a general sense for what they mean, but no depth whatsoever.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-10-13-getting-started-with-cuda.html b/_posts/2010-10-13-getting-started-with-cuda.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..44b8675b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-10-13-getting-started-with-cuda.html
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Getting started with CUDA
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+tags: 
+- CUDA
+layout: post
+---
+I've recently gotten interested in parallel programming using graphics cards. A graduate student of mine has been working on the development of the code, but recently I've decided to try some coding myself. My plan with these posts is to outline the steps required for getting up and running with CUDA development on a Win7 machine using Visual Studio 2008. Yes this has probably been done before, but isn't this what the internet is all about...massively repeated information. So here goes my approach and I hope it is helpful to someone.
+
+The very first step is to download the <a title="Getting started" href="http://developer.download.nvidia.com/compute/cuda/2_3/docs/CUDA_Getting_Started_2.3_Windows.pdf" target="_blank">Getting started guide for windows</a>. This document will step you through the process to ensure that you have the correct hardware and software on your computer to enable CUDA development and execution. The only difference from the instructions that I found were the directory paths even though I installed into the default directory. I think this is a Win7 (possibly also Vista) discrepancy from WinXP. So instead of
+
+C:\Documents and Settings\All Users\Application Data\NVIDIA Corporation\NVIDIA GPU Computing SDK
+
+I had to use
+
+C:\ProgramData\NVIDIA Corporation\NVIDIA GPU Computing SDK 3.2
+
+Now, I realize that I had previously installed a CUDA SDK and have already installed version 3.2 despite the documentation suggesting that you uninstall previous version of the SDK. I am now uninstalling the previous version (post installation of version 3.2). If I have problems in the future, I will uninstall/reinstall version 3.2.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-10-22-cholera-outbreak-in-haiti.html b/_posts/2010-10-22-cholera-outbreak-in-haiti.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..80b610c5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-10-22-cholera-outbreak-in-haiti.html
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Cholera outbreak in Haiti
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+tags: 
+- cholera
+- Disease
+- Haiti
+- outbreak
+- Outbreak
+layout: post
+---
+From <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11608551">this news source</a>, I learned there is a cholera outbreak in Haiti. <a href="http://newsrss.bbc.co.uk/rss/newsonline_world_edition/front_page/rss.xml">My RSS feed for BBC world news</a>, says that at least 135 people have died from the disease, whereas <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11599777">this BBC article from yesterday</a> says that only 50 people have died. Perhaps they found the other 85 people in the course of one day, but that seems doubtful.
+
+And why does the World Health Organization not have this <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/country/hti/en/">Haiti cholera outbreak</a> up yet?
diff --git a/_posts/2010-10-29-news-editor-for-significance-magazine.html b/_posts/2010-10-29-news-editor-for-significance-magazine.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..de421cc4
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-10-29-news-editor-for-significance-magazine.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: News editor for Significance Magazine
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+tags: 
+- Science
+- significance magazine; zimbabwe; vaccination
+layout: post
+---
+For those who read this blog, I'm sure you realize the content doesn't appear as quickly as on most blogs. After a year or so of having this blog, I realize the effort it takes even to have just a half-thought idea to post about. I still like having the blog, but my original goal of a post a day is just unreasonable.
+
+I found out that <a href="http://www.significancemagazine.com">Significance Magazine</a> (a new joint venture of the American Statistical Association and the Royal Statistical Association) requested applications for a news editor. Not really knowing what this meant, I sent in a couple of articles from my blog postings last year. Apparently they were impressed or at least in desperate need of news editors and they invited me on board. My first posting there is about using Bayes' rule to <a href="http://www.significancemagazine.org/details/webexclusive/870031/Vaccination-by-religion.html">determine vaccination rates by religion in Zimbabwe</a>. Hope you enjoy!
diff --git a/_posts/2010-11-03-chicken-pox-vaccine.html b/_posts/2010-11-03-chicken-pox-vaccine.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..8052af09
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-11-03-chicken-pox-vaccine.html
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Chicken pox vaccine
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+tags: 
+- awareness
+- Disease
+- society costs
+- vaccination
+layout: post
+---
+My mom is a bit of a skeptic about the medical establishment. Not that there aren't reasons to be skeptical, but I don't think Mercola is the ultimate source of information. Recently she sent me an email complaining about the chicken pox vaccine and that its main purpose is for parents who don't want to have to stay home with their kids. My response to her is below, but the gist is that the main purpose is to reduce societal costs due to lost productivity due to parents staying home with their kids. Rather than looking at the problem as a selfish act by parents, we should be looking at the economic impact on society. I apologize in advance for the links to web articles, but I shy away from sending my mom links to the scientific literature. Here is what I sent:
+<blockquote>With regard to the chicken pox vaccine, I understand what you are saying in terms of chicken pox generally being a mild disease. But it still causes ~150 deaths per year in the US and costs $1B to US society due to hospitalization and lost productivity (see links below). These deaths are of previously healthy individuals unlike deaths from influenza which kills immuno-compromised individuals. From briefly searching, it appears that the cost of the vaccination program is on par with the hospitalization cost of the disease. This means that the benefit of the vaccine is due to decreased societal costs due to lost productivity, i.e. parents staying home with sick kids. From a societal point of view, this is a very reasonable reason to create a vaccine.
+
+<a title="Chicken pox story" href="http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2005/02/02/chicken-pox-050102.html" target="_blank">http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2005/02/02/chicken-pox-050102.html</a>
+<a title="Chicken pox facts" href="http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2005/02/02/chicken-pox-050102.html" target="_blank">http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/artic/facts_about_chickenpox_varicella_cdc_oc.htm</a>
+
+The question about shingles after vaccination is interesting. Pre-vaccine, the vast majority of individuals contracted chicken pox, so I'm guessing the incidence rate for shingles will be equivalent before and after the vaccine was introduced. It will be interesting to see how the severity of shingles for vaccinated individuals compares to that for unvaccinated individuals. I have seen quotes saying that it is less severe for those who had the vaccine. I think this is disingenuous since the vaccine has only been around for 15 years and we already know that shingles is less severe in younger individuals. It will take another 30-40 years to determine what happens with the severity of shingles.
+
+With regard to many vaccines at the same time, it is my belief (based only on the data of my two children) that for healthy children this is not a problem at all, but for immuno-compromised individuals it could be an issue.</blockquote>
diff --git a/_posts/2010-11-15-counting-cholera.html b/_posts/2010-11-15-counting-cholera.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..5024822e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-11-15-counting-cholera.html
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Counting cholera
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+tags: 
+- Cholera
+layout: post
+---
+My most<a title="Cholera cases" href="http://www.significancemagazine.org/details/webexclusive/876959/Cholera-in-Haiti---how-many-cases.html" target="_blank"> recent post to significance magazine concerned the under-reporting of disease outbreak cases</a>. In particular, as of Nov 9th the current numbers for the cholera epidemic in Haiti is <a title="PAHO cholera Haiti" href="http://new.paho.org/disasters/index.php?option=com_content&amp;task=view&amp;id=1423&amp;Itemid=1" target="_blank">11,125 and 724</a>. Given these numbers it is hard to get a handle on how many cases there really are.
+
+As an estimate, we can use the numbers from a <a title="Cholera science friday segment" href="http://www.sciencefriday.com/program/archives/201010296" target="_blank">recent Science Friday segment</a> where the CDC's Eric Mintz was interviewed. In the iterview Dr. Mintz said that in an epidemic typically 75% of individuals who are exposed to cholera have essentially no symptoms. Of the other 25%, 2/3 have mild diarrhea and most of the rest of only moderate diarrhea. If I understood the interview correctly, of all of those exposed about 2% will have severe diarrhea and vomiting which can quickly cause dehydration and stroke and then lead to death. If we assume these are the cases that get hospitalized then, as of Nov 9th, we would have had 556,250 people exposed which would act as an upper bound. If instead, everybody with moderate diarrhea or worse was hospitalized then we would have had 133,500 exposed which acts as a lower bound.
+
+Also included in the Science Friday segment is the natural protection we have against cholera. As can be expected, the severity of the disease is linked to the amount of the bacterium <em><a title="Vibrio cholerae" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vibrio_cholerae">Vibrio cholerae</a></em> that is ingested, but also linked to severity is the pH of the stomach and blood type. A more acidic stomach will kill more of the bacterium before it can enter the small intestine and cause cholera symptoms. So children and those taking antacids will be more susceptible to the disease. According to the interview, those with a blood type of O are more susceptible to cholera although the reasons for this are unclear at this point.
diff --git a/_posts/2010-12-30-mcmski-poster.html b/_posts/2010-12-30-mcmski-poster.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c6d74ef8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2010-12-30-mcmski-poster.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: MCMSki poster
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+tags: 
+- Bayesian
+layout: post
+---
+It appears <a title="Xian MCMSki poster" href="http://xianblog.wordpress.com/2010/12/28/poster-at-mcmski-iii/" target="_blank">others</a> are posting their MCMSki III posters on their blogs, so I thought I would follow suit. This poster is based on work by me and Matt Wheeler to perform Bayesian inference in stochastic chemical kinetic models on a general purpose graphical processing unit.
+
+<a href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/presentations/JaradNiemi-MCMSki-poster.jpg"><img class="aligncenter" title="MCMSki poster" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/presentations/JaradNiemi-MCMSki-poster-thumb.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="354" /></a>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-04-200-countries-200-years-4-minutes.html b/_posts/2011-01-04-200-countries-200-years-4-minutes.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..382cfa5c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-04-200-countries-200-years-4-minutes.html
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: 200 Countries, 200 Years, 4 Minutes
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- data visualization
+- Statistics
+- video
+layout: post
+---
+Here is a video looking at the change in life expectancy and median income for countries of the world for the past 200 years
+
+<object width="560" height="340"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/jbkSRLYSojo?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/jbkSRLYSojo?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="560" height="340"></embed></object>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-04-phd-writing-skills.html b/_posts/2011-01-04-phd-writing-skills.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..2c074bd1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-04-phd-writing-skills.html
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: PhD writing skills
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT 230
+- Statistics
+layout: post
+---
+Xian recently posted on his blog about about the <a title="Xian's blog" href="http://xianblog.wordpress.com/2010/12/23/lacking-skills/" target="_blank">lack of writing skills in statistics PhD students in France</a>. Certainly the same issue is true here in the U.S. Since I am only a second year assistant professor, I am not far removed from being a graduate student and feel that my writing skills could be vastly better. As it is, it still takes me a long time to prepare a manuscript that is anywhere near publishable although vastly less time than it took per page when writing my thesis, the quality of which is much worse.
+
+Xian had some specific suggestions for how to improve the writing skills of PhD students, but basically it comes down to requiring students to write more, read more, and give/get feedback. The suggestion in the post was to have PhD students write shorter pieces earlier in their career and provide them with feedback. I plan on incorporating these ideas into PSTAT 230 - Statistical Consulting which I will teach this spring.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-04-tweet-test.html b/_posts/2011-01-04-tweet-test.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d6c648db
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-04-tweet-test.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Tweet test
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "no"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+I've installed Twitter Tools and it is supposed to create a tweet everytime I post. This is testing to see if it works.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-08-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-08.html b/_posts/2011-01-08-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-08.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c51dc84c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-08-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-08.html
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-01-08
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>sad story of a father dying 10 days after his wedding from H1N1 <a href="http://bbc.in/fkZyOd" rel="nofollow">http://bbc.in/fkZyOd</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/21198100647383040" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>the esmeralda printer in building 937 on UCSB&#039;s campus was pretty painless <a href="http://bit.ly/eCjbqk" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/eCjbqk</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/22039412934189057" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>off to MCMSKi <a href="http://madison.byu.edu/mcmski/" rel="nofollow">http://madison.byu.edu/mcmski/</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/22413506305335296" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>New blog post: 200 Countries, 200 Years, 4 Minutes <a href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2011/01/04/200-countries-200-years-4-minutes/" rel="nofollow">http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2011/01/04/200-countries-200-years-4-minutes/</a> #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23tt" class="aktt_hashtag">tt</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/22416377809739776" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>New blog post: PhD writing skills <a href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2011/01/04/phd-writing-skills/" rel="nofollow">http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2011/01/04/phd-writing-skills/</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/22661385120911361" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>great talk by Jeff Rosenthal (<a href="http://www.probability.ca/jeff/" rel="nofollow">http://www.probability.ca/jeff/</a>) about MCMC theory at #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23MCMSki3" class="aktt_hashtag">MCMSki3</a>  R package (<a href="http://www.probability.ca/amcmc/" rel="nofollow">http://www.probability.ca/amcmc/</a>) <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/22693734990741504" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/ryanjparker" class="aktt_username">ryanjparker</a> no kidding, if he is smart enough to get a degree at Stanford, he is smart enough to do it while playing in the NFL <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/23154000685699074" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>another great session at #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23MCMSki3" class="aktt_hashtag">MCMSki3</a>  in particular Colin Fox&#039;s talk concerning how MCMC samplers relate to linear iterative solvers <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/23194830381252610" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>for those interested, here (<a href="http://bit.ly/hgjLYP" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/hgjLYP</a>) are my posts at significancemagazine.org <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/23197581517524993" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Mike Newton&#039;s talk at #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23MCMSki3" class="aktt_hashtag">MCMSki3</a> ranked results by lower percentile which I had done with player contribution in bb <a href="http://bit.ly/fzCwIX" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/fzCwIX</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/23422891819278336" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>cabaret at #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23MCMSki3" class="aktt_hashtag">MCMSki3</a> was a success highlighted by an appearance by the Crash Test Dummies (yes, you read that right) <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/23637462924398592" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-12-seminar-today-2.html b/_posts/2011-01-12-seminar-today-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..223ec7eb
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-12-seminar-today-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Seminar today
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Outbreak
+- pstat
+- seminar
+- Statistics
+layout: post
+---
+<a title="Mike Ludkovski" href="http://www.pstat.ucsb.edu/faculty/ludkovski/" target="_blank">Mike Ludkovski</a> and I will be giving a joint seminar today in PSTAT (Sobel Room, South Hall 5607F on UCSB campus) at 3:30, refreshments at 3:15. We will be talking about our recent work on optimal control of disease outbreak using an influenza example. It is a hard problem with much work to be done. Come and join us! More information can be found in the <a title="SCID paper" href="http://www.bepress.com/scid/vol2/iss1/art5" target="_blank">published paper</a>.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-12-statistics-and-applied-psychology.html b/_posts/2011-01-12-statistics-and-applied-psychology.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..89ce5913
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-12-statistics-and-applied-psychology.html
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Statistics and Applied Psychology
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- PSTAT
+layout: post
+---
+Statistics and Applied Psychology is apparently our new departmental name. I don't think the probabilists are going to be happy.
+
+<a href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2011/01/12/statistics-and-applied-psychology/psych/" rel="attachment wp-att-870"><img src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/psych.jpg" alt="" title="Statistics and Applied Psychology" width="320" height="213" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-870" /></a>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-13-phds-lacking-skills.html b/_posts/2011-01-13-phds-lacking-skills.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..f76606ae
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-13-phds-lacking-skills.html
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: PhDs lacking skills
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Statistics
+layout: post
+---
+...what? say it ain't so.
+
+In a follow up to my post about <a title="PhD writing skills" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2011/01/04/phd-writing-skills/" target="_self">writing skills of PhD students</a>, this post points to the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) bulletin where this discussion got started. <a title="Luke Bornn" href="http://www.stat.ubc.ca/~l.bornn/" target="_blank">Luke Bornn</a>, a PhD student at the University of British Columbia and editor of the Students' Corner in the bulletin, <a title="Q&amp;A" href="http://www.bayesian.org/bulletin/1012.pdf" target="_blank">asks this question of a number of a high profile Bayesians</a>. My favorite entry (probably due to the orangutan analogy) is by <a title="Kerrie Mengersen" href="http://www.eng.newcastle.edu.au/eecs/cdsc/Staff/KerrieMengersen.html" target="_blank">Kerrie Mengersen</a>, repeated here
+<blockquote>Recent studies have shown that orangutans quickly recognise when they are being copied by a human and respond with delight, trying increa- singly outrageous activities which lead to mutual entertainment and understanding.
+PhD students could spend more time with orangutans. Extrapolating wildly from these stu- dies, they could learn three important skills.
+1. Translation
+A very common comment by employers is that statistics PhD students need to develop commu- nication skills. An orangutan likes clear, succinct and informative messages. What is it that you do? Why should I care? What does your technical work mean? Practise talking about your work to every orangutan that you meet, including those in pubs, in suits and sitting in conference rooms. Find a level of communication that works for you and for them.
+2. Integration
+
+Whether they remain in research lab or ven- ture into the jungle of the ‘real world’, most sta- tistics PhD students will work as part of a team. Like the orangutan, team members are more like- ly to respond enthusiastically to your ideas and involvement if they see that you are trying to un- derstand them. What is their perspective of the problem? What are their needs, timelines, skills and perspectives? How can you work together for mutual benefit and push each other to new achievements and insights?
+3. Differentiation
+It may come as a surprise, but most people in the world don’t know what a statistician does. It may come as more of a surprise that neither do most statisticians. Interacting with an orangu- tan will help to identify what it is that you do that is different. What is your (ecological) niche? What do you contribute that is different from an information scientist, a computer scientist, a ma- thematician, a spatial scientist, an engineer? And again, why is this important? Why should the orangutan interact with you? Importantly, decla- re yourself as a statistician. If we don’t recognise ourselves, how do we expect others to recognise us and demand our unique skills?
+Apart from these three attributes, orangutans can also teach life skills like swinging through trees and scratching your head with your foot. These are always useful additions for a student’s cv.</blockquote>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-15-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-15-2.html b/_posts/2011-01-15-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-15-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..5aee01c1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-15-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-15-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-01-15
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>just finished #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23geekdadbook" class="aktt_hashtag">geekdadbook</a> and found it inspiring, but not very prescriptive perhaps <a href="http://geekdadbook.com/" rel="nofollow">http://geekdadbook.com/</a> provides the details, we&#039;ll see <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/23919180398989312" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-15-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-15.html b/_posts/2011-01-15-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-15.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..bbe14fb9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-15-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-15.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: future
+published: false
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-01-15
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>just finished #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23geekdadbook" class="aktt_hashtag">geekdadbook</a> and found it inspiring, but not very prescriptive perhaps <a href="http://geekdadbook.com/" rel="nofollow">http://geekdadbook.com/</a> provides the details, we&#039;ll see <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/23919180398989312" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-20-the-nocebo-effect.html b/_posts/2011-01-20-the-nocebo-effect.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..db54bdca
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-20-the-nocebo-effect.html
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: The Nocebo Effect
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+tags: 
+- Science
+layout: post
+---
+This is just a fun video about side-effects of placebos. I need to start lecturing like this.
+
+<iframe title="YouTube video player" class="youtube-player" type="text/html" width="560" height="345" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/O1Q3jZw4FGs" frameborder="0" allowFullScreen></iframe>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-21-bank-failure-rate.html b/_posts/2011-01-21-bank-failure-rate.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..f717d9d7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-21-bank-failure-rate.html
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Bank failure rate
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- bank failures
+- Economy
+- FDIC
+- recession
+- Statistics
+layout: post
+---
+I read the <a title="Calculated Risk Blog" href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/" target="_blank">Calculated Risk blog</a> and they often post <a title="Recent bank failures" href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/bank-failure-4-to-6-in-2011.html" target="_blank">the most recent bank failures</a>. It got me to wondering whether the bank failure rate is still on the rise or is finally decreasing. I decide to look up the data and it was surprisingly easy to find as a <a title="Bank Failure csv file" href="http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.csv" target="_blank">csv</a> downloadable from this <a title="FDIC Bank Failure LIst" href="http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html" target="_blank">FDIC page</a> (a big shout-out to the FDIC for making this data so easily obtainable!). Below is a figure of the FDIC insured bank failures all the way back to about 2000. Clearly observed is the calm before the storm of 2008. I will be trying to keep this updated while I also improve the figure for readability, but for now...this is what you get.
+
+<a rel="attachment wp-att-900" href="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/2011/01/21/bank-failure-rate/banks/"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-900" title="Bank Failure Rate" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/banks.png" alt="" width="480" height="480" /></a>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-22-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-22.html b/_posts/2011-01-22-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-22.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..082388ed
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-22-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-22.html
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-01-22
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>decision question from lunch:how do you optimally price housing when you have a finite ordered list of possible buyers? <a href="http://bit.ly/ieHjvN" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/ieHjvN</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/27859185844621312" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>why is the submission process so hard? I have a pdf, but the system cannot seem to `convert&#039; it to a pdf....yes, it conforms to all specs <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/28469756747063296" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>anybody know how to remove table of contents from a LaTeX file? I mean the links that show up in reader bookmarks (not \tableofcontents) <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/28507427435450368" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>to get no bookmarks in LaTeX use \usepackage[bookmarks=false]{hyperref} <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/28513733449883648" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-24-glm-data-sets.html b/_posts/2011-01-24-glm-data-sets.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..4cde0ab9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-24-glm-data-sets.html
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: GLM data sets
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Datasets
+- PSTAT 220B
+layout: post
+---
+When teaching courses it is often nice to have data sets for us in lectures or for homework or projects. I decided I will use my blog as a resource to help me (and anybody else who reads this blog) organize and find data sets. The most recent <a title="Datasets" href="http://www.sci.usq.edu.au/staff/dunn/Datasets/index.html" target="_blank">database of datasets</a> I have found is by <a title="Peter Dunn" href="http://www.sci.usq.edu.au/staff/dunn/Datasets/index.html" target="_blank">Peter Dunn</a>. These datasets are split up by categories: datasets from books, glms, application, and reported statistics. Of particular interest to me currently is the availability data sets useful for PSTAT 220B - Generalized Linear Models.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-25-approximate-bayesian-computation-seminar.html b/_posts/2011-01-25-approximate-bayesian-computation-seminar.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..b1f3a9d7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-25-approximate-bayesian-computation-seminar.html
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Approximate Bayesian Computation seminar
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Bayesian
+layout: post
+---
+Googling for information on approximate Bayesian computation algorithms, I found this <a title="Wilkinson ABC seminar" href="http://videolectures.net/aispds08_wilkinson_abc/" target="_blank">seminar given by Richard Wilkinson</a>. I really like that this site has both video of Richard and as well as the slides which automatically transition while you are watching the presentation. I'm sure somebody had to put the timings in behind the scenes and I appreciate that. I'm still confused as to why I don't see an ABC-Gibbs sampler method in my searching of ABC methods. In particular, I mean a method where
+<ol>
+	<li>[latex]\theta\sim p(\theta|D')[/latex]</li>
+	<li>[latex]D'\sim p(\cdot|\theta)[/latex] where $latex D'$ is accepted if it is reasonably close to the true data $latex D$ in the ABC fashion</li>
+</ol>
+This seems like a straight-forward "ABC" algorithm that does not appear to be covered in what I have read of the ABC literature. Probably this is a deficiency of my reading rather than a deficiency of the literature. I'm guessing that it is a special case (somehow) of one of the algorithms that have already been outlined. Anybody help me out?
+
+P.S. Yes, I really need to get a LaTeX plugin. [I beat my own post to press and installed the plug-in.]
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-28-uci-systems-biology-conference.html b/_posts/2011-01-28-uci-systems-biology-conference.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..926bd738
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-28-uci-systems-biology-conference.html
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: UCI Systems Biology conference
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- conference
+- Systems Biology
+- systems biology
+- uci
+layout: post
+---
+I am headed to the first <a href="http://ccbs.bio.uci.edu/SoCalSysBio/index.html">Annual SoCal SysBio (Southern California Systems Biology) conference</a> this weekend. Should be an interesting time.
+
+<img alt="" src="http://ccbs.bio.uci.edu/SoCalSysBio/images/sample4.png" title="UCI Systems Biology poster" class="aligncenter" width="180" height="250" />
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-29-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-29-2.html b/_posts/2011-01-29-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-29-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..1ad765f7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-29-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-29-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-01-29
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>According to @<a href="http://twitter.com/Klout" class="aktt_username">Klout</a>, @<a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT" class="aktt_username">NiemiPSTAT</a>&#039;s Klout score is 12.  How influential are you?  <a href="http://bit.ly/ibFBBL" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/ibFBBL</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/29681702318116864" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-01-29-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-29.html b/_posts/2011-01-29-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-29.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..34e246d7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-01-29-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-01-29.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: future
+published: false
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-01-29
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>According to @<a href="http://twitter.com/Klout" class="aktt_username">Klout</a>, @<a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT" class="aktt_username">NiemiPSTAT</a>&#039;s Klout score is 12.  How influential are you?  <a href="http://bit.ly/ibFBBL" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/ibFBBL</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/29681702318116864" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-02-02-egyptians-fighting-for-freedom.html b/_posts/2011-02-02-egyptians-fighting-for-freedom.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c9464d1d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-02-02-egyptians-fighting-for-freedom.html
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Egyptians fighting for freedom
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+<iframe title="YouTube video player" class="youtube-player" type="text/html" width="560" height="345" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/ThvBJMzmSZI?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowFullScreen></iframe>
+
diff --git a/_posts/2011-02-05-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-05.html b/_posts/2011-02-05-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-05.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..6e725448
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-02-05-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-05.html
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-02-05
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>interesting talk by Gentry Patrick of #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23UCSD" class="aktt_hashtag">UCSD</a> at #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23SoCalSysBio" class="aktt_hashtag">SoCalSysBio</a> conference: time-lapse fluorescent microscopy of nerve cells <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/31476780640501760" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>disappointed Xiaohui Xie of #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23UCI" class="aktt_hashtag">UCI</a> didn&#039;t talk about his RJMCMC method for obtaining MLEs in his talk this morning at #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23SoCalSysBio" class="aktt_hashtag">SoCalSysBio</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/31477935642779648" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>great slides by Bruce Hay of #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23CalTech" class="aktt_hashtag">CalTech</a> at #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23SoCalSysBio" class="aktt_hashtag">SoCalSysBio</a>  great graphical depiction of concepts and perfect use with Comic Sans (I&#039;m serious) <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/31507341845209088" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>great talk by Bernie Daigle yesterday at the SysBio meeting about analyzing microarray data using the R::limma package <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/32490325452787712" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-02-12-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-12.html b/_posts/2011-02-12-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-12.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..009bafcc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-02-12-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-12.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-02-12
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>when putting dates in filenames, can we all agree on the convention YYYYMMDD for alphabetical ordering and unambiguous months-days? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/35762773753339904" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-02-19-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-19-2.html b/_posts/2011-02-19-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-19-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..9ebe27da
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-02-19-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-19-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-02-19
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>useful trick: \only&lt;1-| handout:0&gt;{\multiinclude[&lt;+&gt;][format=pdf]{file}}
+    \only&lt;beamer:0| handout:1&gt;{\includegraphics{file-1}} <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37285467325988864" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>watching jeopardy ibm challenge <a href="http://www-943.ibm.com/innovation/us/watson/" rel="nofollow">http://www-943.ibm.com/innovation/us/watson/</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37359610272677888" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>really Watson chooses the daily double as its first jeopardy clue?? did the programmers create an algorithm for the most likely daily double <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37360135588290560" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> after going for the daily double is now systematically going through the $200 clues? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37360597959974913" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>category `name the decade&#039; and #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> &#039;s top answers are 1950s, kingdom (?), and it&#039;s a small world (?) <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37361173963866113" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> certainly seems quicker in buzzing in than the human contestants <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37361531758841856" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>first question a human gets right in a while is due to #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> not being above his confidence threshold...what is that anyway? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37362335530090496" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>from the #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23jeopardy" class="aktt_hashtag">jeopardy</a> infomercial it appears as if the #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> coders don&#039;t know what they&#039;ve programmed, although I&#039;m sure that is the editing <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37364083539976193" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>hmm #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> gets terminal wrong (and didn&#039;t turn orange!!) and he was 97% confident...what is confidence anyway? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37364398850965504" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>we&#039;ve got a game here on #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23jeopardy" class="aktt_hashtag">jeopardy</a>  human vs #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37365848817532928" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>R graph gallery: <a href="http://addictedtor.free.fr/graphiques/" rel="nofollow">http://addictedtor.free.fr/graphiques/</a> from Bernie Daigle <a href="http://www.cs.ucsb.edu/~cse/people.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.cs.ucsb.edu/~cse/people.html</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37589387323768832" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>watching day 3 of jeopardy&#039;s #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23ibm" class="aktt_hashtag">ibm</a> challenge. it appear #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> needs those precious seconds for computation as he loses on short questions <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/38742156046905344" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-02-19-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-19.html b/_posts/2011-02-19-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-19.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..09755780
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-02-19-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-19.html
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: future
+published: false
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-02-19
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>useful trick: \only&lt;1-| handout:0&gt;{\multiinclude[&lt;+&gt;][format=pdf]{file}}
+    \only&lt;beamer:0| handout:1&gt;{\includegraphics{file-1}} <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37285467325988864" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>watching jeopardy ibm challenge <a href="http://www-943.ibm.com/innovation/us/watson/" rel="nofollow">http://www-943.ibm.com/innovation/us/watson/</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37359610272677888" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>really Watson chooses the daily double as its first jeopardy clue?? did the programmers create an algorithm for the most likely daily double <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37360135588290560" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> after going for the daily double is now systematically going through the $200 clues? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37360597959974913" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>category `name the decade&#039; and #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> &#039;s top answers are 1950s, kingdom (?), and it&#039;s a small world (?) <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37361173963866113" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> certainly seems quicker in buzzing in than the human contestants <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37361531758841856" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>first question a human gets right in a while is due to #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> not being above his confidence threshold...what is that anyway? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37362335530090496" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>from the #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23jeopardy" class="aktt_hashtag">jeopardy</a> infomercial it appears as if the #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> coders don&#039;t know what they&#039;ve programmed, although I&#039;m sure that is the editing <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37364083539976193" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>hmm #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> gets terminal wrong (and didn&#039;t turn orange!!) and he was 97% confident...what is confidence anyway? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37364398850965504" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>we&#039;ve got a game here on #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23jeopardy" class="aktt_hashtag">jeopardy</a>  human vs #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37365848817532928" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>R graph gallery: <a href="http://addictedtor.free.fr/graphiques/" rel="nofollow">http://addictedtor.free.fr/graphiques/</a> from Bernie Daigle <a href="http://www.cs.ucsb.edu/~cse/people.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.cs.ucsb.edu/~cse/people.html</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/37589387323768832" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>watching day 3 of jeopardy&#039;s #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23ibm" class="aktt_hashtag">ibm</a> challenge. it appear #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23watson" class="aktt_hashtag">watson</a> needs those precious seconds for computation as he loses on short questions <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/38742156046905344" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-02-26-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-26.html b/_posts/2011-02-26-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-26.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..fcfbd82b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-02-26-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-02-26.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-02-26
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>the website I always use to remember how to trim latex images: <a href="http://www.andy-roberts.net/misc/latex/latextutorial5.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.andy-roberts.net/misc/latex/latextutorial5.html</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/41264290153504768" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-03-05-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-03-05.html b/_posts/2011-03-05-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-03-05.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..70feaaa3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-03-05-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-03-05.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-03-05
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>why do Mac&#039;s skip drop down boxes when tabbing in firefox? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/43047334183043072" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-03-09-possible-h2n2-pandemic.html b/_posts/2011-03-09-possible-h2n2-pandemic.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..b7bb9005
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-03-09-possible-h2n2-pandemic.html
@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Possible H2N2 pandemic
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- H2N2
+- infectivity
+- Influenza
+- morbidity
+- mortality
+- Optimal decisions
+layout: post
+---
+According to this <a title="BBC H2N2 report" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12691894">BBC report</a> about a <a title="Nature" href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v471/n7337/full/471157a.html">Nature article</a>, the author's of said article suggest that the public be vaccinated against a possible H2N2 outbreak. Again, according to the BBC report, they suggest that the immunity in those below age 50 is `very low.' Therefore if an H2N2 outbreak occurs, it may have little difficulty in sweeping through the US population with possibly debilitating results. And since a vaccine already exists from a 1950s H2N2 outbreak, we can already produce the vaccine. The alternative options are 1) stockpile the vaccine so that it is ready to go the minute the outbreak is discovered or 2) start producing it once the outbreak is discovered and vaccinate as the vaccine is produced. The BBC reports that the authors suggest that a mass vaccination campaign now is the most cost effective option.
+
+[In the Nature comments article, the authors say that it would be a one-time program followed by ongoing vaccination in children...so this point is moot.] One difficulty I have with this approach is that it is not a one-time vaccination campaign as suggested by the authors. It is more similar to the regular vaccinations children receive for measles and other diseases. Yes, it would be a mass vaccination campaign for large segment of the population but then would be ongoing addition to the vaccination schedules for children. Of course the alternative action would be to just have a mass vaccination campaign every 50 years or so, but that doesn't seem like a very sustainable model.
+
+The second (and more meaningful) difficulty I have with this approach is that there is so much uncertainty in the future H2N2 outbreak that appears to be unaccounted for. In particular
+<ul>
+	<li>when will a H2N2 outbreak occur?</li>
+	<li>how infective will the strain be?</li>
+	<li>what will the morbidity and mortality be for the strain?</li>
+</ul>
+All three of these questions are important to in making a decision about whether to do a mass vaccination campaign. For example, if we don't expect an outbreak to occur in the next 100 years, then it makes no sense to vaccinate. If we expect an outbreak but its infectivity is really low, then it will make sense to start production once the vaccine has broken out. If the outbreak will occur soon and it is highly infective, then it still only makes sense to do a mass vaccination campaign now if the morbidity and mortality of the strain is high. What do we know about these three questions and what is our uncertainty around that knowledge? With that we can create an optimal vaccination plan.
+
+P.S. Thanks to my <a title="Michael Ludkovski" href="http://www.pstat.ucsb.edu/faculty/ludkovski/">next door office mate</a> who found the article in the comments section of Nature.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-03-30-sweave-on-macosx.html b/_posts/2011-03-30-sweave-on-macosx.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c4075027
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-03-30-sweave-on-macosx.html
@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Sweave on MacOSX
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _wp_old_slug: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+tags: 
+- LaTeX
+- Mac OSX
+- R
+- Sweave
+layout: post
+---
+Because it took me a while to figure this all out, I thought I would post it. The aim here is to create Sweave files in TeXShop with the ability to compile to a pdf in one click (or command-T [can't figure out how to insert the command symbol]). Here's what I did mainly thanks to <a title="Aaron Rendahl" href="http://www.stat.umn.edu/~arendahl/computing/index.html">Aaron Rendahl</a>.
+<ol>
+	<li>Save <a href="http://cran.r-project.org/contrib/extra/scripts/Sweave.sh">Sweave.sh</a> into ~/Library/TeXShop/bin</li>
+	<li>In terminal, type `chmod +x ~/Library/TeXShop/bin/Sweave.sh</li>
+	<li>Create ~/Library/TeXShop/Engines/Sweave.engine with the following content:
+<blockquote>#!/bin/bash
+~/Library/TeXShop/bin/Sweave.sh  -ld "$1"</blockquote>
+</li>
+	<li>In terminal, type `chmod +x ~/Library/TeXShop/Engines/Sweave.engine'</li>
+</ol>
+If you want to also have an engine that doesn't clean up after itself, create ~/Library/TeXShop/Engines/Sweave.engine with the following content:
+<blockquote>#!/bin/bash
+~/Library/TeXShop/bin/Sweave.sh  -nc -ld "$1"</blockquote>
+and in terminal typing `chmod +x ~/Library/TeXShop/Engines/SweaveNoClean.engine'.
+
+Now, if you don't want to include Sweave.sty in every directory where you are creating a Sweave document, just do the following obtained from <a title="Code snippet" href="http://codesnippets.joyent.com/posts/show/1972">here</a>:
+<ol>
+	<li>In terminal type, `mkdir -p ~/Library/texmf/tex/latex'</li>
+	<li>In terminal type, `cd ~/Library/texmf/tex/latex'</li>
+	<li>In terminal type, `ln -s /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Resources/share/texmf Sweave'</li>
+</ol>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-04-16-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-04-16-2.html b/_posts/2011-04-16-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-04-16-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..793f5d61
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-04-16-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-04-16-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-04-16
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>to create a filled circle in tikz use \draw [fill] (.5,.5) circle(.03); why is it that I can find `semithick&#039; before i can find `fill&#039;? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/58586438102564865" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-04-16-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-04-16.html b/_posts/2011-04-16-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-04-16.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..1265262f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-04-16-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-04-16.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: future
+published: false
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-04-16
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>to create a filled circle in tikz use \draw [fill] (.5,.5) circle(.03); why is it that I can find `semithick&#039; before i can find `fill&#039;? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/58586438102564865" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-05-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-05-14-2.html b/_posts/2011-05-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-05-14-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..52ebf6b9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-05-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-05-14-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-05-14
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>thanks Leah for sending this link about current educational systems <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDZFcDGpL4V" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDZFcDGpL4V</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/68015929304416256" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-05-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-05-14.html b/_posts/2011-05-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-05-14.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..ee6d0118
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-05-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-05-14.html
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: future
+published: false
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-05-14
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>thanks Leah for sending this link about current educational systems <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDZFcDGpL4V" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDZFcDGpL4V</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiPSTAT/statuses/68015929304416256" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-05-16-open-problems-in-bayesian-statistics.html b/_posts/2011-05-16-open-problems-in-bayesian-statistics.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..343c9f4d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-05-16-open-problems-in-bayesian-statistics.html
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Open problems in Bayesian statistics
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Bayesian
+layout: post
+---
+In a <a title="ISBA bulletin" href="http://members.bayesian.org/sites/default/files/fm/bulletins/1103.pdf" target="_blank">recent bulletin</a> for the <a title="ISBA" href="http://bayesian.org/" target="_blank">International Society for Bayesian Statistics</a>, the new president, <a title="Michael Jordan" href="http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~jordan/" target="_blank">Michael Jordan</a>, requested responses from top academic Bayesians and asked them what the currently open problems are in Bayesian statistics. As a quick summary, the list is (in Michael Jordan's order):
+<ol>
+	<li>Model selection and hypothesis testing</li>
+	<li>Computation and statistics</li>
+	<li>Bayesian/frequentist relationships</li>
+	<li>Priors</li>
+	<li>Nonparametrics and semiparametrics</li>
+</ol>
+Some additional discussion by <a title="Andrew Gelman" href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2011/04/what_are_the_op.html" target="_blank">Andrew Gelman</a> can be found at the <a title="The Statistics Forum" href="http://statisticsforum.wordpress.com/2011/04/28/what-are-the-open-problems-in-bayesian-statistics/" target="_blank">statistics forum</a>. I thought this list and the associated discussion would be useful for graduate students who are entertaining a thesis in Bayesian statistics.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-08-19-matt-damon-on-why-teachers-teach.html b/_posts/2011-08-19-matt-damon-on-why-teachers-teach.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..4c90ea1a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-08-19-matt-damon-on-why-teachers-teach.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Matt Damon on why teachers teach
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+<iframe width="640" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/WFHJkvEwyhk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-08-20-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-08-20.html b/_posts/2011-08-20-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-08-20.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..851f66ca
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-08-20-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-08-20.html
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-08-20
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>It&#039;s not good when an ISP can&#039;t keep their own website up: qwest.com <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/103211210475962368" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>hmm....how do I find out about my departmental disabilities liaison? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/103467088160636929" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>on the Gregorc style delineator I&#039;m AS:33, CR:24, AR:22, CS:21 <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/103471494448955392" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>the most interesting session of the day was one on Team Based Learning <a href="http://t.co/nyvvaFH" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/nyvvaFH</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/103593524657782784" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/ryanjparker" class="aktt_username">ryanjparker</a> nice work on passing the exam, no how&#039;s that paper coming along :) <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/103938454043361280" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-08-25-printer-software.html b/_posts/2011-08-25-printer-software.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c090011d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-08-25-printer-software.html
@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: draft
+published: false
+title: Printer software
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "no"
+tags: 
+- License agreements
+layout: post
+---
+ ENGLISH
+
+APPLE INC. 
+SOFTWARE LICENSE AGREEMENT FOR MAC OS X 
+Single Use, Family Pack and Leopard Upgrade Licenses for use on Apple-branded Systems
+
+PLEASE READ THIS SOFTWARE LICENSE AGREEMENT ("LICENSE") CAREFULLY BEFORE USING THE APPLE SOFTWARE.  BY USING THE APPLE SOFTWARE, YOU ARE AGREEING TO BE BOUND BY THE TERMS OF THIS LICENSE, UNLESS YOU RETURN THE APPLE SOFTWARE IN ACCORDANCE WITH APPLE’S RETURN POLICY. IF YOU ARE ACCESSING THE APPLE SOFTWARE ELECTRONICALLY, SIGNIFY YOUR AGREEMENT TO BE BOUND BY THE TERMS OF THIS LICENSE BY CLICKING THE "AGREE " BUTTON. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE TO THE TERMS OF THIS LICENSE, DO NOT USE THE APPLE SOFTWARE AND CLICK “DISAGREE”. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE TO THE TERMS OF THE LICENSE, YOU MAY RETURN THE APPLE SOFTWARE WITHIN THE RETURN PERIOD TO THE APPLE STORE OR AUTHORIZED DISTRIBUTOR WHERE YOU OBTAINED IT FOR A REFUND, SUBJECT TO APPLE’S RETURN POLICY FOUND AT http://www.apple.com/legal/sales_policies/. FOR APPLE SOFTWARE INCLUDED WITH YOUR PURCHASE OF HARDWARE, YOU MUST RETURN THE ENTIRE HARDWARE/SOFTWARE PACKAGE IN ORDER TO OBTAIN A REFUND. 
+
+IMPORTANT NOTE: This software may be used to reproduce, modify, publish and distribute materials.  It is licensed to you only for reproduction, modification, publication and distribution of non-copyrighted materials, materials in which you own the copyright, or materials you are authorized or legally permitted to reproduce, modify, publish or distribute. If you are uncertain about your right to copy, modify, publish or distribute any material, you should contact your legal advisor.
+
+1. General. The Apple software (including Boot ROM code), any third party software, documentation, interfaces, content, fonts and any data accompanying this License whether preinstalled on Apple-branded hardware, on disk, in read only memory, on any other media or in any other form (collectively the “Apple Software”) are licensed, not sold, to you by Apple Inc. (“Apple”) for use only under the terms of this License. Apple and/or Apple’s licensors retain ownership of the Apple Software itself and reserve all rights not expressly granted to you. The terms of this License will govern any software upgrades provided by Apple that replace and/or supplement the original Apple Software product, unless such upgrade is accompanied by a separate license in which case the terms of that license will govern. 
+
+Title and intellectual property rights in and to any content displayed by or accessed through the Apple Software belongs to the respective content owner. Such content may be protected by copyright or other intellectual property laws and treaties, and may be subject to terms of use of the third party providing such content. This License does not grant you any rights to use such content nor does it guarantee that such content will continue to be available to you.
+
+2. Permitted License Uses and Restrictions.  
+A. Single Use License. Subject to the terms and conditions of this License, unless you have purchased a Family Pack or Upgrade license for the Apple Software, you are granted a limited non-exclusive license to install, use and run one (1) copy of the Apple Software on a single Apple-branded computer at a time. You agree not to install, use or run the Apple Software on any non-Apple-branded computer, or to enable others to do so. This License does not allow the Apple Software to exist on more than one computer at a time, and you may not make the Apple Software available over a network where it could be used by multiple computers at the same time. 
+
+B. Family Pack License. If you have purchased a Family Pack license, then subject to the terms and conditions of this License, you are granted a limited non-exclusive license to install, use and run one (1) copy of the Apple Software on up to a maximum of five (5) Apple-branded computers at a time as long as those computers are located in the same household and used by persons who occupy that same household. By "household" we mean a person or persons who share the same housing unit such as a home, apartment, mobile home or condominium, but shall also extend to student members who are primary residents of that household but residing at a separate on-campus location. The Family Pack License does not extend to business or commercial users. 
+
+C. Leopard Upgrade Licenses. If you have purchased an Upgrade for Mac OS X Leopard license, then subject to the terms and conditions of this License, you are granted a limited non-exclusive license to install, use and run one (1) copy of the Apple Software on a single Apple-branded computer as long as that computer has a properly licensed copy of Mac OS X Leopard already installed on it. If you have purchased a Family Pack Upgrade for Mac OS X Leopard license, then subject to the terms and conditions of this License, you are granted a limited non-exclusive license to install, use and run one (1) copy of the Apple Software on up to a maximum of five (5) Apple-branded computers at a time as long as those computers are located in the same household (as defined above), are used by persons who occupy that same household, and each such computer has a properly licensed copy of Mac OS X Leopard already installed on it. The Family Pack Upgrade for Mac OS X Leopard License does not extend to business or commercial users.
+
+D.  Fonts. Subject to the terms and conditions of this License, you may use the fonts included with the Apple Software to display and print content while running the Apple Software; however, you may only embed fonts in content if that is permitted by the embedding restrictions accompanying the font in question.  These embedding restrictions can be found in the Font Book/Preview/Show Font Info panel.
+
+E. Voices. Subject to the terms and conditions of this License, you may use the system voices included in the Apple Software (“System Voices”) (i) while running the Apple Software and (ii) to create your own original content and projects for your personal, non-commercial use. No other use of the System Voices is permitted by this License, including but not limited to the use, reproduction, display, performance, recording, publishing or redistribution of any of the System Voices in a profit, non-profit, public sharing or commercial context.
+
+F. You may make one copy of the Apple Software (excluding the Boot ROM code and other Apple firmware that is embedded or otherwise contained in Apple-branded hardware) in machine-readable form for backup purposes only; provided that the backup copy must include all copyright or other proprietary notices contained on the original. Apple Boot ROM code and firmware is provided only for use on Apple-branded hardware and you may not copy, modify or redistribute the Apple Boot ROM code or firmware, or any portions thereof.
+
+G. If you use Setup/Migration Assistant to transfer software from one Apple-branded computer to another Apple-branded computer, please remember that continued use of the original copy of the software may be prohibited once a copy has been transferred to another computer, unless you already have a licensed copy of such software on both computers. You should check the relevant software license agreements for applicable terms and conditions. Third party software and services may not be compatible with this Apple Software and installation of this Apple Software may affect the availability and usability of such third party software or services.
+
+H. Certain components of the Apple Software, and third party open source programs included with the Apple Software, have been or may be made available by Apple on its Open Source web site (http://www.opensource.apple.com/) (collectively the "Open-Sourced Components"). You may modify or replace only these Open-Sourced Components; provided that: (i) the resultant modified Apple Software is used, in place of the unmodified Apple Software, on a single Apple-branded computer; and (ii) you otherwise comply with the terms of this License and any applicable licensing terms governing use of the Open-Sourced Components. Apple is not obligated to provide any updates, maintenance, warranty, technical or other support, or services for the resultant modified Apple Software.
+
+You expressly acknowledge that if failure or damage to Apple hardware results from modification of the Open-Sourced Components of the Apple Software, such failure or damage is excluded from the terms of the Apple hardware warranty.
+
+I. You may not and you agree not to, or to enable others to, copy (except as expressly permitted by this License), decompile, reverse engineer, disassemble, attempt to derive the source code of, decrypt, modify, or create derivative works of the Apple Software or any services provided by the Apple Software, or any part thereof (except as and only to the extent any foregoing restriction is prohibited by applicable law or to the extent as may be permitted by licensing terms governing use of Open-Sourced Components). You agree to use the Apple Software and the Services (as defined in Section 5 below) in compliance with all applicable laws, including local laws of the country or region in which you reside or in which you download or use the Apple Software and Services.
+
+J. Apple has provided as part of the Apple Software package, and may provide as an upgrade, update or supplement to the Apple Software, access to certain third party software or services as a convenience. To the extent that the Apple Software contains or provides access to any third party software or services, Apple has no express or implied obligation to provide any technical or other support for such software or services. Please contact the appropriate software vendor, manufacturer or service provider directly for technical support and customer service related to its software, service and/or products.
+
+3. Transfer. You may not rent, lease, lend, sell, redistribute or sublicense the Apple Software.  Subject to the restrictions set forth below, you may, however, make a one-time permanent transfer of all of your license rights to the Apple Software (in its original form as provided by Apple) to another party, provided that: (a) the transfer must include all of the Apple Software, including all its component parts (excluding Apple Boot ROM code and firmware), original media, printed materials and this License; (b) you do not retain any copies of the Apple Software, full or partial, including copies stored on a computer or other storage device; and (c) the party receiving the Apple Software reads and agrees to accept the terms and conditions of this License.  You may not rent, lease, lend, redistribute, sublicense or transfer any Apple Software that has been modified or replaced under Section 2H above. All components of the Apple Software are provided as part of a bundle and may not be separated from the bundle and distributed as standalone applications. Apple Software provided with a particular Apple-branded hardware product may not run on other models of Apple-branded hardware.
+
+Updates: If an Apple Software update completely replaces (full install) a previously licensed version of the Apple Software, you may not use both versions of the Apple Software at the same time nor may you transfer them separately.
+
+NFR (Not for Resale) and Evaluation Copies: Notwithstanding other sections of this License, Apple Software labeled or otherwise provided to you on a promotional or not-for-resale basis may only be used for demonstration, testing and evaluation purposes and may not be resold or transferred. 
+
+Apple System Restore Copies: Restore CDs or DVDs that may accompany an Apple hardware bundle, or are otherwise provided by Apple in connection with an Apple hardware bundle, contain a copy of the Apple Software that is to be used for diagnostic and restorative purposes only.  These CDs and DVDs may be resold or transferred only as part of the Apple hardware bundle.
+
+Academic Copies: If the Apple Software package has an academic label or if you acquired the Apple Software at an academic discount, you must be an Eligible Educational End User to use the Apple Software. "Eligible Educational End Users" means students, faculty, staff and administration attending and/or working at an educational institutional facility (i.e., college campus, public or private K-12 schools).
+
+4. Consent to Use of Data. 
+A. Diagnostic Data. You agree that Apple and its subsidiaries and agents may collect, maintain, process and use diagnostic, technical and related information, including but not limited to information about your computer, system and application software, and peripherals, that is gathered periodically to facilitate the provision of software updates, product support and other services to you (if any) related to the Apple Software, and to verify compliance with the terms of this License. Apple may use this information, as long as it is in a form that does not personally identify you, to improve our products or to provide services or technologies to you.  
+
+B. Location Data.  Apple and its partners and licensees may provide certain services through the Apple Software that rely upon location information. To provide these services, where available, Apple and its partners, licensees and third party developers may transmit, collect, maintain, process and use your location data, including the real-time geographic location of your computer. The location data collected by Apple is collected in a form that does not personally identify you and may be used by Apple and its partners, licensees and third party developers to provide location-based products and services. By using any location-based services provided by or through the Apple Software, you agree and consent to Apple's and its partners', licensees' and third party developers’ transmission, collection, maintenance, processing and use of your location data to provide such products and services. You may withdraw this consent at any time by not using the location-based features or by disabling the Location Services setting in the Apple Software. The Location Services setting is found in Security preferences within System Preferences. Not using these features will not impact the non location-based functionality of the Apple Software. When using third party applications or services on your computer that use or provide location data, you are subject to and should review such third party's terms and privacy policy on use of location data by such third party applications or services.
+
+At all times your information will be treated in accordance with Apple’s Customer Privacy Policy which can be viewed at: www.apple.com/legal/privacy/.
+
+5. Services and Third Party Materials.  
+A. The Apple Software may enable access to Apple's iTunes Store and other Apple and third party services and web sites (collectively and individually, "Services"). Use of these Services requires Internet access and use of certain Services requires you to accept additional terms and may be subject to additional fees. By using this software in connection with an iTunes Store account, you agree to the latest iTunes Store Terms and Conditions, which you may access and review at http://www.apple.com/legal/itunes/ww/.  
+
+B. You understand that by using any of the Services, you may encounter content that may be deemed offensive, indecent, or objectionable, which content may or may not be identified as having explicit language, and that the results of any search or entering of a particular URL may automatically and unintentionally generate links or references to objectionable material. Nevertheless, you agree to use the Services at your sole risk and that Apple shall have no liability to you for content that may be found to be offensive, indecent, or objectionable. 
+
+C. Certain Services may display, include or make available content, data, information, applications or materials from third parties (“Third Party Materials”) or provide links to certain third party web sites. By using the Services, you acknowledge and agree that Apple is not responsible for examining or evaluating the content, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, copyright compliance, legality, decency, quality or any other aspect of such Third Party Materials or web sites. Apple, its officers, affiliates and subsidiaries do not warrant or endorse and do not assume and will not have any liability or responsibility to you or any other person for any third-party Services, Third Party Materials or web sites, or for any other materials, products, or services of third parties. Third Party Materials and links to other web sites are provided solely as a convenience to you. 
+
+D. Financial information displayed by any Services is for general informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as investment advice. Before executing any securities transaction based upon information obtained through the Services, you should consult with a financial or securities professional who is legally qualified to give financial or securities advice in your country or region. Location data provided by any Services is for basic navigational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon in situations where precise location information is needed or where erroneous, inaccurate, time-delayed or incomplete location data may lead to death, personal injury, property or environmental damage. Neither Apple nor any of its content providers guarantees the availability, accuracy, completeness, reliability, or timeliness of stock information, location data or any other data displayed by any Services. 
+
+E. You agree that the Services contain proprietary content, information and material that is owned by Apple and/or its licensors, and is protected by applicable intellectual property and other laws, including but not limited to copyright, and that you will not use such proprietary content, information or materials in any way whatsoever except for permitted use of the Services or in any manner that is inconsistent with the terms of this License or that infringes any intellectual property rights of a third party or Apple. No portion of the Services may be reproduced in any form or by any means. You agree not to modify, rent, lease, loan, sell, distribute, or create derivative works based on the Services, in any manner, and you shall not exploit the Services in any unauthorized way whatsoever, including but not limited to, using the Services to transmit any computer viruses, worms, trojan horses or other malware, or by trespass or burdening network capacity. You further agree not to use the Services in any manner to harass, abuse, stalk, threaten, defame or otherwise infringe or violate the rights of any other party, and that Apple is not in any way responsible for any such use by you, nor for any harassing, threatening, defamatory, offensive, infringing or illegal messages or transmissions that you may receive as a result of using any of the Services.
+
+F. In addition, Services and Third Party Materials that may be accessed, linked to or displayed through the Apple Software are not available in all languages or in all countries. Apple makes no representation that such Services and Materials are appropriate or available for use in any particular location. To the extent you choose to access such Services or Materials, you do so at your own initiative and are responsible for compliance with any applicable laws, including but not limited to applicable local laws. Apple and its licensors reserve the right to change, suspend, remove, or disable access to any Services at any time without notice. In no event will Apple be liable for the removal of or disabling of access to any such Services. Apple may also impose limits on the use of or access to certain Services, in any case and without notice or liability. 
+
+6. Termination. This License is effective until terminated. Your rights under this License will terminate automatically or otherwise cease to be effective without notice from Apple if you fail to comply with any term(s) of this License. Upon the termination of this License, you shall cease all use of the Apple Software and destroy all copies, full or partial, of the Apple Software. Sections 7, 8, 9, 10, 13 and 14 of this License shall survive any such termination.
+
+7. Limited Warranty on Media. Apple warrants the media on which the Apple Software is recorded and delivered by Apple to be free from defects in materials and workmanship under normal use for a period of ninety (90) days from the date of original retail purchase. Your exclusive remedy under this Section shall be, at Apple’s option, a refund of the purchase price of the product containing the Apple Software or replacement of the Apple Software which is returned to Apple or an Apple authorized representative with a copy of the receipt. THIS LIMITED WARRANTY AND ANY IMPLIED WARRANTIES ON THE MEDIA INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, OF SATISFACTORY QUALITY, AND OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, ARE LIMITED IN DURATION TO NINETY (90) DAYS FROM THE DATE OF ORIGINAL RETAIL PURCHASE. SOME JURISDICTIONS DO NOT ALLOW LIMITATIONS ON HOW LONG AN IMPLIED WARRANTY LASTS, SO THE ABOVE LIMITATION MAY NOT APPLY TO YOU. THE LIMITED WARRANTY SET FORTH HEREIN IS THE ONLY WARRANTY MADE TO YOU AND IS PROVIDED IN LIEU OF ANY OTHER WARRANTIES (IF ANY) CREATED BY ANY DOCUMENTATION, PACKAGING OR OTHERWISE. THIS LIMITED WARRANTY GIVES YOU SPECIFIC LEGAL RIGHTS, AND YOU MAY ALSO HAVE OTHER RIGHTS WHICH VARY BY JURISDICTION.
+
+8. Disclaimer of Warranties. YOU EXPRESSLY ACKNOWLEDGE AND AGREE THAT, TO THE EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, USE OF THE APPLE SOFTWARE AND ANY SERVICES PERFORMED BY OR THROUGH THE APPLE SOFTWARE (COLLECTIVELY “SERVICES”) IS AT YOUR SOLE RISK AND THAT THE ENTIRE RISK AS TO SATISFACTORY QUALITY, PERFORMANCE, ACCURACY AND EFFORT IS WITH YOU. EXCEPT FOR THE LIMITED WARRANTY ON MEDIA SET FORTH ABOVE AND TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, THE APPLE SOFTWARE AND SERVICES ARE PROVIDED “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE”, WITH ALL FAULTS AND WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, AND APPLE AND APPLE'S LICENSORS (COLLECTIVELY REFERRED TO AS “APPLE” FOR THE PURPOSES OF SECTIONS 8 and 9) HEREBY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES AND CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE APPLE SOFTWARE AND SERVICES, EITHER EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES AND/OR CONDITIONS OF MERCHANTABILITY, OF SATISFACTORY QUALITY, OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, OF ACCURACY, OF QUIET ENJOYMENT, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT OF THIRD PARTY RIGHTS. APPLE DOES NOT WARRANT AGAINST INTERFERENCE WITH YOUR ENJOYMENT OF THE APPLE SOFTWARE AND SERVICES, THAT THE FUNCTIONS CONTAINED IN, OR SERVICES PERFORMED OR PROVIDED BY, THE APPLE SOFTWARE WILL MEET YOUR REQUIREMENTS, THAT THE OPERATION OF THE APPLE SOFTWARE OR SERVICES WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR ERROR-FREE, THAT ANY SERVICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MADE AVAILABLE, THAT THE APPLE SOFTWARE OR SERVICES WILL BE COMPATIBLE OR WORK WITH ANY THIRD PARTY SOFTWARE, APPLICATIONS OR THIRD PARTY SERVICES, OR THAT DEFECTS IN THE APPLE SOFTWARE OR SERVICES WILL BE CORRECTED. INSTALLATION OF THIS SOFTWARE MAY AFFECT THE USABILITY OF THIRD PARTY SOFTWARE, APPLICATIONS OR THIRD PARTY SERVICES. YOU FURTHER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE APPLE SOFTWARE AND SERVICES ARE NOT INTENDED OR SUITABLE FOR USE IN SITUATIONS OR ENVIRONMENTS WHERE THE FAILURE OR TIME DELAYS OF, OR ERRORS OR INACCURACIES IN THE CONTENT, DATA OR INFORMATION PROVIDED BY, THE APPLE SOFTWARE OR SERVICES COULD LEAD TO DEATH, PERSONAL INJURY, OR SEVERE PHYSICAL OR ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION THE OPERATION OF NUCLEAR FACILITIES, AIRCRAFT NAVIGATION OR COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS, AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL, LIFE SUPPORT OR WEAPONS SYSTEMS. NO ORAL OR WRITTEN INFORMATION OR ADVICE GIVEN BY APPLE OR AN APPLE AUTHORIZED REPRESENTATIVE SHALL CREATE A WARRANTY. SHOULD THE APPLE SOFTWARE OR SERVICES PROVE DEFECTIVE, YOU ASSUME THE ENTIRE COST OF ALL NECESSARY SERVICING, REPAIR OR CORRECTION.  SOME JURISDICTIONS DO NOT ALLOW THE EXCLUSION OF IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR LIMITATIONS ON APPLICABLE STATUTORY RIGHTS OF A CONSUMER, SO THE ABOVE EXCLUSION AND LIMITATIONS MAY NOT APPLY TO YOU. 
+
+9. Limitation of Liability. TO THE EXTENT NOT PROHIBITED BY APPLICABLE LAW, IN NO EVENT SHALL APPLE BE LIABLE FOR PERSONAL INJURY, OR ANY INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, INDIRECT OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WHATSOEVER, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, DAMAGES FOR LOSS OF PROFITS, LOSS OF DATA, BUSINESS INTERRUPTION OR ANY OTHER COMMERCIAL DAMAGES OR LOSSES, ARISING OUT OF OR RELATED TO YOUR USE OR INABILITY TO USE THE APPLE SOFTWARE AND SERVICES OR ANY THIRD PARTY SOFTWARE OR APPLICATIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPLE SOFTWARE, HOWEVER CAUSED, REGARDLESS OF THE THEORY OF LIABILITY (CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE) AND EVEN IF APPLE HAS BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES. SOME JURISDICTIONS DO NOT ALLOW THE LIMITATION OF LIABILITY FOR PERSONAL INJURY, OR OF INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, SO THIS LIMITATION MAY NOT APPLY TO YOU. In no event shall Apple's total liability to you for all damages (other than as may be required by applicable law in cases involving personal injury) exceed the amount of fifty dollars ($50.00).  The foregoing limitations will apply even if the above stated remedy fails of its essential purpose.
+
+10. Digital Certificates.
+A. General. The Apple Software contains functionality that allows it to accept digital certificates either issued from Apple or from third parties. YOU ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO RELY ON A CERTIFICATE WHETHER ISSUED BY APPLE OR A THIRD PARTY. YOUR USE OF DIGITAL CERTIFICATES IS AT YOUR SOLE RISK. TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, APPLE MAKES NO WARRANTIES OR REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE, ACCURACY, SECURITY, OR NON-INFRINGEMENT OF THIRD PARTY RIGHTS WITH RESPECT TO DIGITAL CERTIFICATES.  You agree that (a) you will not falsify or misuse any certificate; (b) you will use Digital Certificates for legal purposes only and in accordance with any applicable Certificate Policy, Certificate Practice Statement or other Certificate Authority business practice disclosures; (c) you are solely responsible for preventing any unauthorized user from making use of your Digital Certificates; and (d) you will revoke any certificate that you have reason to believe has been compromised. 
+
+B. Use of Digital Certificates in iChat. The Apple Software allows you to encrypt your iChat communications. This feature uses digital certificates to verify that the iChat is coming from the iChat screen name that appears in the iChat window and to encrypt and decrypt the chat.  It does not verify the identity of the person using that screen name. Apple does not guarantee that there will be no hacking or intrusions into the chat. YOUR USE OF THIS FEATURE IN CONNECTION WITH ICHAT IS AT YOUR SOLE RISK. APPLE MAKES NO WARRANTIES OR REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE, ACCURACY, SECURITY, OR NON-INFRINGEMENT OF THIRD PARTY RIGHTS WITH RESPECT TO THE USE OF DIGITAL CERTIFICATES AND/OR ENCRYPTION IN ICHAT. By using the Apple Software, you agree that (a) you will take no action that interferes with the normal operation of digital certificates or encryption used in an iChat session or otherwise falsify the digital certificate used to validate a screen name; (b) you will use the encrypted iChat function solely for legal purposes; (c) you are solely responsible for preventing any unauthorized user from having access to any certificate or private key stored on your computer; and (d) you will revoke any certificate that you have reason to believe is compromised. Apple’s Certificate Policy and Certificate Practice Statements may be found at: http://www.apple.com/certificateauthority.
+
+11. Export Control. You may not use or otherwise export or reexport the Apple Software except as authorized by United States law and the laws of the jurisdiction in which the Apple Software was obtained. In particular, but without limitation, the Apple Software may not be exported or re-exported (a) into any U.S. embargoed countries or (b) to anyone on the U.S. Treasury Department's list of Specially Designated Nationals or the U.S. Department of Commerce Denied Person’s List or Entity List. By using the Apple Software, you represent and warrant that you are not located in any such country or on any such list. You also agree that you will not use the Apple Software for any purposes prohibited by United States law, including, without limitation, the development, design, manufacture or production of missiles, nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.
+
+12. Government End Users. The Apple Software and related documentation are "Commercial Items", as that term is defined at 48 C.F.R. §2.101, consisting of "Commercial Computer Software" and "Commercial Computer Software Documentation", as such terms are used in 48 C.F.R. §12.212 or 48 C.F.R. §227.7202, as applicable. Consistent with 48 C.F.R. §12.212 or 48 C.F.R. §227.7202-1 through 227.7202-4, as applicable, the Commercial Computer Software and Commercial Computer Software Documentation are being licensed to U.S. Government end users (a) only as Commercial Items and (b) with only those rights as are granted to all other end users pursuant to the terms and conditions herein.  Unpublished-rights reserved under the copyright laws of the United States.
+
+13. Controlling Law and Severability. This License will be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of the State of California, excluding its conflict of law principles. This License shall not be governed by the United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods, the application of which is expressly excluded. If for any reason a court of competent jurisdiction finds any provision, or portion thereof, to be unenforceable, the remainder of this License shall continue in full force and effect.  
+
+14. Complete Agreement; Governing Language. This License constitutes the entire agreement between you and Apple relating to the use of the Apple Software and supersedes all prior or contemporaneous understandings regarding such subject matter.  No amendment to or modification of this License will be binding unless in writing and signed by Apple. Any translation of this License is done for local requirements and in the event of a dispute between the English and any non-English versions, the English version of this License shall govern, to the extent not prohibited by local law in your jurisdiction.
+
+15. Third Party Acknowledgements. 
+A. Portions of the Apple Software utilize or include third party software and other copyrighted material. Acknowledgements, licensing terms and disclaimers for such material are contained in the electronic documentation for the Apple Software, and your use of such material is governed by their respective terms. Use of the Google Safe Browsing Service is subject to the Google Terms of Service (http://www.google.com/terms_of_service.html) and to Google's Privacy Policy (http://www.google.com/privacypolicy.html).
+
+B. Certain software libraries and other third party software included with the Apple Software are free software and licensed under the terms of the GNU General Public License (GPL) or the GNU Library/Lesser General Public License (LGPL), as the case may be. You may obtain a complete machine-readable copy of the source code for such free software under the terms of the GPL or LGPL, as the case may be, without charge except for the cost of media, shipping, and handling, upon written request to Apple. The GPL/LGPL software is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY, without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  A copy of the GPL and LGPL is included with the Apple Software.
+
+C. The Apple Software includes certain software licensed under the IBM Public License Version 1.0 (IPL) or the Common Public License Version 1.0 (CPL). A copy of the source code for the IPL and CPL licensed software may be found in Apple’s Open Source repository. See Apple's Open Source web site (http://www.opensource.apple.com/) for information on how to obtain the source code. THE IPL AND CPL SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS, WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF TITLE, NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  NEITHER APPLE, IBM NOR ANY OTHER CONTRIBUTOR TO THE IPL AND CPL SOFTWARE SHALL HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, EXEMPLARY, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, LOST PROFITS), HOWEVER CAUSED AND ON ANY THEORY OF LIABILITY, WHETHER IN CONTRACT, STRICT LIABILITY, OR TORT (INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) ARISING IN ANY WAY OUT OF THE USE OR DISTRIBUTION OF THE IPL AND CPL SOFTWARE OR THE EXERCISE OF ANY RIGHTS GRANTED HEREUNDER, EVEN IF ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
+
+D. MPEG-2 Notice. To the extent that the Apple Software contains MPEG-2 functionality, the following provision applies: ANY USE OF THIS PRODUCT OTHER THAN CONSUMER PERSONAL USE IN ANY MANNER THAT COMPLIES WITH THE MPEG-2 STANDARD FOR ENCODING VIDEO INFORMATION FOR PACKAGED MEDIA IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT A LICENSE UNDER APPLICABLE PATENTS IN THE MPEG-2 PATENT PORTFOLIO, WHICH LICENSE IS AVAILABLE FROM MPEG LA, L.L.C, 250 STEELE STREET, SUITE 300, DENVER, COLORADO 80206.
+
+E. Use of MPEG-4. This product is licensed under the MPEG-4 Visual Patent Portfolio License for the personal and non-commercial use of a consumer for (i) encoding video in compliance with the MPEG-4 Visual Standard (“MPEG-4 Video”) and/or (ii) decoding MPEG-4 video that was encoded by a consumer engaged in a personal and non-commercial activity and/or was obtained from a video provider licensed by MPEG LA to provide MPEG-4 video. No license is granted or shall be implied for any other use. Additional information including that relating to promotional, internal and commercial uses and licensing may be obtained from MPEG LA, LLC. See http://www.mpegla.com. 
+
+F. H.264/AVC Notice.  To the extent that the Apple Software contains AVC encoding and/or decoding functionality, commercial use of H.264/AVC requires additional licensing and the following provision applies: THE AVC FUNCTIONALITY IN THIS PRODUCT IS LICENSED HEREIN ONLY FOR THE PERSONAL AND NON-COMMERCIAL USE OF A CONSUMER TO (i) ENCODE VIDEO IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE AVC STANDARD ("AVC VIDEO") AND/OR (ii) DECODE AVC VIDEO THAT WAS ENCODED BY A CONSUMER ENGAGED IN A PERSONAL AND NON-COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY AND/OR AVC VIDEO THAT WAS OBTAINED FROM A VIDEO PROVIDER LICENSED TO PROVIDE AVC VIDEO. INFORMATION REGARDING OTHER USES AND LICENSES MAY BE OBTAINED FROM MPEG LA L.L.C. SEE HTTP://WWW.MPEGLA.COM. 
+
+G. AMR Notice. The Adaptive Multi-Rate ("AMR") encoding and decoding functionality in this product is not licensed to perform cellular voice calls, or for use in any telephony products built on the QuickTime architecture for the Windows platform. The AMR encoding and decoding functionality in this product is also not licensed for use in a cellular communications infrastructure including:  base stations, base station controllers/radio network controllers, switching centers, and gateways to and from the public switched network.
+
+H. FAA Notice. Aircraft Situation Display and National Airspace System Status Information data (collectively “Flight Data”) displayed through the Apple Software is generated by the Federal Aviation Administration. You agree not to redistribute Flight Data without the prior written consent of the FAA. The FAA and Apple disclaim all warranties, expressed or implied (including the implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose), regarding the use and accuracy of the Flight Data. You agree that the FAA and Apple shall not be liable, either collectively or individually, for any loss, damage, claim, liability, expense, or penalty, or for any indirect, special, secondary, incidental, or consequential damages deriving from the use of the Flight Data. The Apple Software is not sponsored or endorsed by the FAA. The FAA is not responsible for technical or system problems, and you should not contact the FAA regarding such problems or regarding operational traffic flow issues.
+
+I. Use of Adobe Color Profiles. You may use the Adobe Color Profile software included with the Apple Software pursuant to this License, but Adobe is under no obligation to provide any support for the Color Profiles hereunder, including upgrades or future versions of the Profiles or other items. In addition to the provisions of Sections 7 and 8 above, IN NO EVENT WILL ADOBE BE LIABLE TO YOU FOR ANY DAMAGES, CLAIMS OR COSTS WHATSOEVER.  The Adobe Color Profile software distributed with the Apple Software is also available for download from Adobe at www.adobe.com.
+
+16. Yahoo Search Service Restrictions. The Yahoo Search Service available through Safari is licensed for use only in the following countries and regions: Argentina, Aruba, Australia, Austria, Barbados, Belgium, Bermuda, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Cayman Islands, Chile, Colombia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Grenada, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Jamaica, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Malta, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Norway, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, The Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkey, UK, Uruguay, US and Venezuela.
+
+EA0560
+Rev.  7-15-09
diff --git a/_posts/2011-08-27-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-08-27.html b/_posts/2011-08-27-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-08-27.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..e02b98ce
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-08-27-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-08-27.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-08-27
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>the website for team-based learning, unsurprisingly is teambasedlearning.org <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/106812436878852096" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-08-28-should-we-invert-hypothesis-tests-to-create-confidence-intervals.html b/_posts/2011-08-28-should-we-invert-hypothesis-tests-to-create-confidence-intervals.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..692ee6c8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-08-28-should-we-invert-hypothesis-tests-to-create-confidence-intervals.html
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Should we invert hypothesis tests to create confidence intervals
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+Since I have taught this topic in intro stat courses, I was interested to hear that <a href="http://andrewgelman.com/2011/08/why_it_doesnt_m/" title="Andrew Gelamn blog" target="_blank">Andrew Gelman does not think that inverting hypothesis tests is a generally valid means of obtaining confidence intervals</a>. The crux of the matter is the graph:
+
+<img alt="" src="http://andrewgelman.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/invert.png" title="Width of CIs from inverting hypotheses" class="aligncenter" width="400" height="300" />
+Points where the red line is on the x-axis are points where the model does not fit the data and therefore it makes no sense to obtain a confidence interval for a parameter in an irrelevant model. This is no problem since the red line being on the x-axis means a zero-width confidence interval which would be very suspicious.
+
+The main problem are points just left of where the red line meets the x-axis. These are points where the model fits the data poorly, but a confidence interval is incredibly narrow. So there is no indication that (from the confidence interval) that the model is poor and therefore it is tempting to believe the confidence interval is true (or has the correct coverage).
+
+There is a lot of discussion about this post on Gelman's page, but one comment suggested that a Bayesian credible interval would have this same problem. Unfortunately Gelman's response does not address this central point. I would agree with the comment since the problem being reported is what happens when the model fits the data poorly. 
+
+Gelman's final comment is also a bit bizarre since he states ``inverting hypothesis tests is not a good general principle for obtaining interval estimates. You’re mixing up two ideas: inference within a model and checking the fit of a model.'' No, you are not mixing the two ideas since the hypothesis test that is used to create the confidence interval is still done within the model. 
+
+<strong>Bottom line:</strong> You should always do model checking prior to inference. If the model fits poorly, then the inference is most likely irrelevant.
+
diff --git a/_posts/2011-08-29-default-priors.html b/_posts/2011-08-29-default-priors.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..b67c80b6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-08-29-default-priors.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Default priors
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+As I'm making my way through old Gelman posts, I found <a href="http://andrewgelman.com/2011/08/default_priors/" title="Andrew Gelamn blog" target="_blank">this post</a> which might particularly be interesting to students in my STAT 615 class (Advanced Bayesian methods) where he discusses default prior choices for hierarchical models. His preference is for weakly informative priors, e.g. t, half-t, and Ga(2,1A) for non-varying parameters, variance parameters, and hierarchical scale parameters.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-08-30-inverse-gamma-priors-for-variance-parameters-are-informative.html b/_posts/2011-08-30-inverse-gamma-priors-for-variance-parameters-are-informative.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..f72514a1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-08-30-inverse-gamma-priors-for-variance-parameters-are-informative.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Inverse gamma priors for variance parameters are informative
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+I guess I need to go figure out why <a href="http://andrewgelman.com/2011/08/understanding_h/" title="Andrew Gelamn blog" target="_blank">Gelman says that inverse-gamma priors for variance parameters are informative</a> and therefore suggests (I'm assuming based on my previous post) half-t priors. I guess the answer is in <a href="http://ba.stat.cmu.edu/journal/2006/vol01/issue03/gelman.pdf" title="Andrew Gelamn blog" target="_blank">this paper</a>. And apparently this is implemented in blmer/bglmer in R.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-08-31-jcgs-code.html b/_posts/2011-08-31-jcgs-code.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..6c0161c7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-08-31-jcgs-code.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: JCGS code
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+tags: 
+- Software
+layout: post
+---
+I published a paper in 2010 in the Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics titled `<a href="http://pubs.amstat.org/doi/abs/10.1198/jcgs.2010.08117" title="JCGS paper">Adaptive mixture modelling Metropolis methods for Bayesian analysis of non-linear state-space models</a>' and can be obtained here. In the supplemental material I provided <a href='http://jaradniemi.com/2011/08/31/jcgs-code/am4_code/' rel='attachment wp-att-1061'>code</a> as well as another example of the use of this method. My goal with adding the code was to allow people to reproduce the example in the paper. I spent a lot of time trying to make sure the code was complete and accurate, but recently I have received several emails/posts from people who have had difficulties running the code. I am setting this post up to log difficulties and solutions.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-09-03-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-03.html b/_posts/2011-09-03-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-03.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..533798cf
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-09-03-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-03.html
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-09-03
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>the 2004 presidential election was stolen? <a href="http://t.co/Fl4F1fV" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/Fl4F1fV</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/107905072968646656" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>about parallel independent RNG streams in JAGS <a href="http://t.co/aMFRFG7" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/aMFRFG7</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/107921595397455872" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>problems with Bayesian model averaging <a href="http://t.co/2eXazat" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/2eXazat</a>  <a href="http://t.co/KH4FYg2" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/KH4FYg2</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/107928378715287552" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo <a href="http://t.co/aHDCMD7" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/aHDCMD7</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/107928989804412928" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Special Issue in Statistical Science titled Bayesian Methods that Frequentists Should Know <a href="http://t.co/57XWf6a" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/57XWf6a</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/107930498856271872" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>RNGs on GPUs <a href="http://t.co/IZ4Y89s" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/IZ4Y89s</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/107931380226334721" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>estimating the # of components in a normal mixture model needs an explanation of what a component encoded in the prior <a href="http://t.co/Y2mJIIf" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/Y2mJIIf</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/107932154712948736" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Lego video of Bayesian spatio-temporal model of cancer rates in Queensland, Australia <a href="http://t.co/UKPY9Q8" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/UKPY9Q8</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/108182904928075776" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>a new mutant strain of bird flu resistant to current vaccines <a href="http://t.co/gk4jhG2" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/gk4jhG2</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/108323096733302784" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>quick video explaining statistics...really only 22,000 people in the US us stats everyday for their job?? <a href="http://t.co/vK8wnxj" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/vK8wnxj</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/108323742400249856" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>new inlets in the Outer Banks of North Carolina...nature is impressive  <a href="http://t.co/hZawbRS" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/hZawbRS</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/108381314402619392" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>wow 150 measles cases in the U.S. so far this year <a href="http://t.co/sXw6Efh" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/sXw6Efh</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/108980075881431040" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>wow. this really got by the IRB, intentionally affecting people with the flu? <a href="http://t.co/ULDEwtJ" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/ULDEwtJ</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/109044487292071937" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>man...why can&#039;t I spell...previous tweet: affecting -&gt; infecting <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/109054230148550657" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-09-10-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-10.html b/_posts/2011-09-10-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-10.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..b7c8e987
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-09-10-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-10.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-09-10
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>wild polioviris isolated from 4 children in Hetian prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China <a href="http://t.co/dwjfcBt" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/dwjfcBt</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/111133971533934592" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>airports wasting billions for our ``security&#039;&#039;, I think about this every time I fly since it doesn&#039;t make me feel safer <a href="http://t.co/lmZeKi1" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/lmZeKi1</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/112255033436938240" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-09-14-venting-lessons-from-a-virus.html b/_posts/2011-09-14-venting-lessons-from-a-virus.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..59b5902c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-09-14-venting-lessons-from-a-virus.html
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Venting - Lessons from a Virus
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Outbreak
+layout: post
+---
+A <a href="http://www2c.cdc.gov/podcasts/download.asp?af=h&f=8621036" title="H1N1 experiences" target="_blank">pdf put out by the CDC to describe experiences during the H1N1 outbreak</a> claims 
+
+
+<blockquote>communicating the experiences of a pandemic can be just as
+valuable as exchanging data</blockquote>
+
+I call BS. In a field where data is extremely hard to come by due to HIPAA regulations and insurance companies ``owning'' data, outbreak data is extremely valuable. Certainly it is far more valuable than some selected experiences. 
diff --git a/_posts/2011-09-15-the-scientific-basis-for-bachmann.html b/_posts/2011-09-15-the-scientific-basis-for-bachmann.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d6d1c9f9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-09-15-the-scientific-basis-for-bachmann.html
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: The scientific basis for Bachmann
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Disease
+- Politics
+layout: post
+---
+A quote from Michele Bachmann regarding her reporting that the HPV vaccine has "very significant consequences" based on a distraught mother who believes the HPV vaccine caused her child to become mentally retarded. The implication here is that Bachmann believes that the HPV vaccine causes mental retardation or at least something as severe. When asked about this on a <a title="Bachmann quote" href="http://www.hannity.com/videos?uri=channels/400391/1484677" target="_blank">conservative talk show (starts around 8:30)</a>, Bachmann says:
+<blockquote>I have no idea. ... All I was doing is reporting what this woman told me last night at the debate.</blockquote>
+I think this sums up Bachmann's approach quite well: find one person who will say something and portray it as truth.
+
+Bachmann then says that we should have an opt-in policy for vaccines rather than opt-out which displays a clear lack of understanding of how many public health interventions work, i.e. by stopping the spread of a disease.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-09-17-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-17.html b/_posts/2011-09-17-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-17.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..dc073e83
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-09-17-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-17.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-09-17
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>must have back to school apps <a href="http://t.co/9IHrsJY" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/9IHrsJY</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/112707644170571776" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-09-19-reproducible-research.html b/_posts/2011-09-19-reproducible-research.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..a4324199
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-09-19-reproducible-research.html
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Reproducible research
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Science
+- Statistics
+layout: post
+---
+A new paper in <a title="AoAS paper" href="http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS?service=UI&amp;version=1.0&amp;verb=Display&amp;handle=euclid.aoas/1267453942" target="_blank">Annals of Applied Statistics by Keith Baggerly and Kevin Coombes</a> discusses Forensic bioinformatics. I heard Keith talk about this at <a href="http://madison.byu.edu/mcmski/" title="MCMSki3" target="_blank">MCMSki3</a>. Basically, the Baggerly and Coombes looked at a few bioinformatics papers, tried to reproduce some statistical analyses, and failed. In failing, Baggerly and Coombes realized the authors of those papers had not done what they said they had done. So Baggerly and Coombes reverse engineered what was actually done with <a href="http://andrewgelman.com/2011/09/reproducibility-in-practice/" title="Gelman blog" target="_blank">astounding results</a>, e.g. training data with sensitive/resistant labels reversed and <a href="http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2009/09/18/make-up-your-own-rules-of-probability/" title="John Cook blog" target="_blank">bizarre probability laws [P(A,B) = max(P(A),P(B))</a>. 
+
+The authors suggest (and <a href="http://andrewgelman.com/2011/09/reproducibility-in-practice/" title="Andrew Gelman blog" target="_blank">this blog post suggests</a>) that all analyses should be able to be run immediately by reviewers to verify results. One way of doing this is to use <a href="http://www.stat.umn.edu/~charlie/Sweave/" title="Sweave" target="_blank">Sweave</a> which is a combination R/LaTeX document that 1) runs all R analyses and then 2) compiles the LaTeX document containing all the R output. 
+
+I've used Sweave to create a 2-day short course on R which I found very valuable, but yet I cannot seem to incorporate it into standard practice when writing papers. We'll see if that changes.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-09-24-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-24.html b/_posts/2011-09-24-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-24.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..edf1b254
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-09-24-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-09-24.html
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-09-24
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>I&#039;m all for big goals, but the &quot;privately led public initiative&quot; makes me think <a href="http://t.co/mSJOcwh0" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/mSJOcwh0</a> is gonna fail <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/115971972487319552" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>moneyball in theaters on Sep 23rd <a href="http://t.co/Tmw7ZtVv" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/Tmw7ZtVv</a> I&#039;m sure it will gloss over the statistics <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/116140489362780160" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>just learned about svn revert <a href="http://t.co/TkhOdjJ9" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/TkhOdjJ9</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/116212959906238464" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>to check MD5SUM on a mac use `openssl md5 [filename]&#039; thanks <a href="http://t.co/PZ46uN5z" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/PZ46uN5z</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/116513057324273666" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>really there is no Iowa State letterhead in LaTeX? <a href="http://t.co/ZZ9AyvpF" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/ZZ9AyvpF</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/116525566139699200" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-01-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-01.html b/_posts/2011-10-01-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-01.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..35cf7200
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-01-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-01.html
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-10-01
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>this post at TheBigPicture blog has a myriad of plots concerning the economic recession <a href="http://t.co/kAwwH7MB" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/kAwwH7MB</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/118427920753631232" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>ISU interviewing pres. candidates this am and announcing the next pres. this pm, how could this turn out poorly? <a href="http://t.co/rgdAeXci" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/rgdAeXci</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/118781627370446848" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>the ISU presidency has already gone poorly, it&#039;s now 4:30 and no word as to who is the next university president <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/118799707291136000" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/ryanjparker" class="aktt_username">ryanjparker</a> it certainly means that it didn&#039;t go as smoothly as the board members were hoping <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/118802426714271744" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>doh, there it is <a href="http://t.co/oYXGQTp7" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/oYXGQTp7</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/118802587251245056" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>stealing one from North Carolina: Steven Leath <a href="http://t.co/DYicfKBV" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/DYicfKBV</a> (can&#039;t even find a good unc.edu link) <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/118803966317441025" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>articles on the philosophy of Bayesian statistics <a href="http://t.co/UpfLhLfm" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/UpfLhLfm</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/119787306344394752" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-06-how-do-you-calculate-a-median.html b/_posts/2011-10-06-how-do-you-calculate-a-median.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..b27e8c13
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-06-how-do-you-calculate-a-median.html
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: How do you calculate a median?
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+Anybody want to explain how the median on the figure below is 1350? I grabbed this figure from <a href="http://www.scientificcomputing.com/articles-HPC-Competing-with-C-and-Java-100411.aspx" title="CUDA vs OpenCL" target="_blank">an article on CUDA vs OpenCL and who will win for parallel computing</a>. As far as I can tell, it has rank on the x-axis and speed-up on the y-axis. Since there are 100 observations, the median will be the average of the 50th and 51st observations, which both look to be around 300. I tried to calculate a mean giving the benefit of the doubt to all speed-ups and I only got 605. How could they possibly get 1350? 
+<img alt="" src="http://www.scientificcomputing.com/uploadedImages/Images/09_2011/Competing%20Figure%201_web.jpg" title="Median figure" class="alignnone" width="701" height="387" /> 
+Separately, in the top 100 NVIDIA showcases, the last 40 or so are under 200-fold speed-up? In my applications, I have seen 200-fold speed-ups. Am I on the list? I'm guessing not, so how do I get on the list?
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-07-expected-left-pointing-arrow-or-twiddles-error.html b/_posts/2011-10-07-expected-left-pointing-arrow-or-twiddles-error.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..fd10f8c2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-07-expected-left-pointing-arrow-or-twiddles-error.html
@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: expected left pointing arrow <  - or twiddles ~ error
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- expected left pointing arrow &lt; - or twiddles ~ error
+- OpenBUGS
+layout: post
+---
+So this seemingly helpful OpenBUGS error was throwing me off. Code:
+<code>
+n <- 100
+p <- 5
+x <- matrix(rnorm(n*p),n,p)
+b <- rnorm(p,0,.1)
+rho <- exp(x%*%b)
+N <- rpois(n,rho)
+y <- rbinom(n,N,.5)
+
+library(R2OpenBUGS)
+
+model <- function() {
+  for (i in 1:n) {
+    y[i] ~ dbin(0.5,N[i])
+    N[i] ~ dpois(rho[i])
+    rho[i] <- exp(inprod(x[i,],b))
+    #rho[i] <- exp(x[i,1]*b[1]+x[i,2]*b[2]+x[i,3]*b[3]+x[i,4]*b[4]+x[i,5]*b[5])
+  }
+  for (i in 1:p) {
+    b[i] ~ dnorm(0,1)
+  }
+}
+
+fn <- file.path(tempdir(), "model.txt")
+write.model(model,fn)
+
+data <- list(n=n,p=p,y=y,x=x)
+inits <- list(list(b=rep(0,p),N=y))
+parameters <- c("b","N")
+
+sim <- bugs(data,inits,parameters,fn,n.chains=1,n.burnin=1e3,n.thin=1,n.iter=1e4)
+</code>
+caused this error:
+<code>
+OpenBUGS version 3.2.1 rev 781
+type 'modelQuit()' to quit
+OpenBUGS> expected left pointing arrow <  - or twiddles ~ error pos 197 (error on line 10)
+OpenBUGS> model must be checked before data is loaded
+OpenBUGS> model must be checked before compiling
+OpenBUGS> model must have been compiled but not updated to be able to change RN generator
+OpenBUGS> model must be compiled before initial values loaded
+OpenBUGS> model must be compiled before generating initial values
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before updating
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before monitors used
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before monitors used
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before monitors used
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before monitors used
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before monitors used
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before monitors used
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before DIC can be monitored
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before updating
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before monitors used
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before monitors used
+OpenBUGS> DIC monitor not set
+OpenBUGS> 
+</code>
+which was caused by 
+<code>
+rho[i] <- exp(inprod(x[i,],b))
+</code>
+and can be remedied by either
+<code>
+rho[i] <- exp(inprod(x[i,],b[]))
+</code>
+or
+<code>
+rho[i] <- exp(x[i,1]*b[1]+x[i,2]*b[2]+x[i,3]*b[3]+x[i,4]*b[4]+x[i,5]*b[5])
+</code>
+the former is what I was going for.
+
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-07-expected-variable-name-error.html b/_posts/2011-10-07-expected-variable-name-error.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..5b87bd99
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-07-expected-variable-name-error.html
@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: expected variable name error
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- expected variable name error
+- OpenBUGS
+layout: post
+---
+I have recently started using <a href="http://www.openbugs.info/" title="OpenBUGS" target="_blank">OpenBUGS</a> and am again frustrated with the lack of helpfulness of the error codes. More importantly, there is a lack of online resources for determining what the error codes mean. Therefore I have decided to start logging my errors and the fixes that I found. 
+
+This code:
+<code>y <- rbinom(1,10,.5)
+
+library(R2OpenBUGS)
+
+model <- function() {
+  y ~ dbin(0.5,N)
+  N ~ dpois(10)
+}
+
+fn <- file.path(tempdir(), "model.txt")
+write.model(model,fn)
+
+data <- list(y)
+inits <- list(list(N=10))
+parameters <- c("N")
+
+sim <- bugs(data,inits,parameters,fn,n.chains=1,n.burnin=1,n.thin=1,n.iter=3)
+</code>
+produced the following error in the log file:
+<code>OpenBUGS version 3.2.1 rev 781
+type 'modelQuit()' to quit
+OpenBUGS> model is syntactically correct
+OpenBUGS> expected variable name error pos 5 (error on line 1)
+OpenBUGS> model compiled
+OpenBUGS> OpenBUGS> initial values loaded but chain contain uninitialized variables
+OpenBUGS> initial values generated, model initialized
+OpenBUGS> 1 updates took 0 s
+OpenBUGS> monitor set
+OpenBUGS> monitor set
+OpenBUGS> monitor set
+OpenBUGS> monitor set
+OpenBUGS> deviance set
+OpenBUGS> </code>
+which was due to the line 
+<code>
+data <- list(y)</code>
+which should have been
+<code>
+data <- list(y=y)</code>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-07-number-of-items-not-equal-to-size-of-node.html b/_posts/2011-10-07-number-of-items-not-equal-to-size-of-node.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..720614c2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-07-number-of-items-not-equal-to-size-of-node.html
@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: number of items not equal to size of node
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- number of items not equal to size of node
+- OpenBUGS
+layout: post
+---
+No code to show here, but I received this error:
+<code>
+OpenBUGS version 3.2.1 rev 781
+type 'modelQuit()' to quit
+OpenBUGS> model is syntactically correct
+OpenBUGS> data loaded
+OpenBUGS> model compiled
+OpenBUGS> OpenBUGS> number of items not equal to size of node error pos 1212 (error on line 1)
+OpenBUGS> initial values generated, model initialized
+OpenBUGS> update error for node <N[3]> algorithm discrete slice updater error can not sample node  too many iterations 
+OpenBUGS> monitor set
+OpenBUGS> monitor set
+OpenBUGS> monitor set
+OpenBUGS> monitor set
+OpenBUGS> inference can not be made when sampler is in adaptive phase
+OpenBUGS> inference can not be made when sampler is in adaptive phase
+OpenBUGS> inference can not be made when sampler is in adaptive phase
+OpenBUGS> inference can not be made when sampler is in adaptive phase
+OpenBUGS> can not calculate deviance for this model
+OpenBUGS> update error for node <N[3]> algorithm discrete slice updater error can not sample node  too many iterations 
+OpenBUGS> inference can not be made when sampler is in adaptive phase
+OpenBUGS> no monitors set
+</code>
+It turns out that an initialized parameter vector was not the same size as parameter vector inside OpenBUGS. Making sure they were the same length solved the problem.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-07-unknown-type-of-logical-function.html b/_posts/2011-10-07-unknown-type-of-logical-function.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..ed3e349d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-07-unknown-type-of-logical-function.html
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: unknown type of logical function
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- OpenBUGS
+- unknown type of logical function
+layout: post
+---
+Code: <code>
+n <- 10
+x <- rnorm(n)
+b <- rnorm(n)
+rho <- exp(x*b)
+N <- rpois(n,rho)
+y <- rbinom(n,N,.5)
+
+library(R2OpenBUGS)
+
+model <- function() {
+  for (i in 1:n) {
+    y[i] ~ dbin(0.5,N[i])
+    N[i] <- dpois(rho[i])
+    rho[i] <- exp(x[i]*b)
+  }
+  b ~ dnorm(0,1)
+}
+
+fn <- file.path(tempdir(), "model.txt")
+write.model(model,fn)
+
+data <- list(n=n,y=y,x=x)
+inits <- list(list(N=10))
+parameters <- c("N")
+
+sim <- bugs(data,inits,parameters,fn,n.chains=1,n.burnin=1,n.thin=1,n.iter=1e3)
+</code>
+produced the error:
+<code>
+OpenBUGS version 3.2.1 rev 781
+type 'modelQuit()' to quit
+OpenBUGS> unknown type of logical function error pos 76 (error on line 5)
+OpenBUGS> model must be checked before data is loaded
+OpenBUGS> model must be checked before compiling
+OpenBUGS> model must have been compiled but not updated to be able to change RN generator
+OpenBUGS> model must be compiled before initial values loaded
+OpenBUGS> model must be compiled before generating initial values
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before updating
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before monitors used
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before monitors used
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before monitors used
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before monitors used
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before DIC can be monitored
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before updating
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before monitors used
+OpenBUGS> model must be initialized before monitors used
+OpenBUGS> DIC monitor not set
+OpenBUGS> 
+</code>
+due to:
+<code>
+    N[i] <- dpois(rho[i])
+</code>
+which should have been 
+<code>
+    N[i] ~ dpois(rho[i])
+</code>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-08-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-08.html b/_posts/2011-10-08-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-08.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d14f85a7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-08-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-08.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-10-08
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>Installing rgdal on Mac OS X <a href="http://t.co/9r8E5NnK" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/9r8E5NnK</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/121961618014867457" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-14-significance-article-on-statistical-graphics.html b/_posts/2011-10-14-significance-article-on-statistical-graphics.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..f88bfbd6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-14-significance-article-on-statistical-graphics.html
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Significance article on statistical graphics
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+I recently received the following common on my <a title="About Jarad Niemi" href="http://jaradniemi.com/">About page</a>:
+<blockquote>i would deeply appreciate a copy or pdf of your latest article statistical graphics Making information clear — and beautiful, published in significance 8(3) 2011
+
+Thanks in advance,
+
+Pablo</blockquote>
+First, I have now figured out how to disable comments on pages so that the comments can stay on my blog. Second, the article can now be found on my publications page.
+
+The main purpose of the <a title="Significance magazine" href="http://www.significancemagazine.org/view/index.html" target="_blank">Significance</a> article is to try helping people who are typically using the default settings from R/Excel/anything when creating plots. These plots can typically be made much better very quickly. In the article, we make a few suggestions based on trying to `put yourself in the reader's shoes.'
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-15-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-15.html b/_posts/2011-10-15-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-15.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..dffe1e07
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-15-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-15.html
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-10-15
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>worldwide measles outbreak...213 cases in the US <a href="http://t.co/d6cR4GxO" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/d6cR4GxO</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/123829111301996545" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/ISDS" class="aktt_username">ISDS</a> little coordination between any disease transmission monitors and modelers due to data use restrictions <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/124156136709558274" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Kerberos -&gt; TicketViewer in MacOSX 10.6 (in case you ISU folks are trying to mount afs) <a href="http://t.co/IvGeHBX6" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/IvGeHBX6</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/124873365843476480" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/ISDS" class="aktt_username">ISDS</a> oh really? no email for me (either way). I even tried checking AbstractCentral. I suppose `the check is in the mail.&#039; <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/124884349085691905" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-19-finding-an-advisor.html b/_posts/2011-10-19-finding-an-advisor.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..18e58d2d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-19-finding-an-advisor.html
@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Finding an advisor
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Statistics
+layout: post
+---
+A recent chat with a graduate student:
+<blockquote>
+<div>4:32 PM Student: Can I ask you a research question?</div>
+<div> me: sure</div>
+<div> Student: or more practically, how did you realize you wanted to research what you do research?</div>
+<div>  To put it into context</div>
+<div>4:33 PM me: I went to talk with professors and grab the best thing I found</div>
+<div>  and the advisor that I thought i would get along with the best</div>
+<div>  in the end it came down more to my scientific background fitting with the research than my statistical interest</div>
+<div> Student: makes sense</div>
+<div>4:34 PM I am trying to come up with an idea for an NSF application where you need to propose some sort of idea of what you want to study</div>
+<div>4:35 PM me: I would still go and talk with professors....I bet the NSF proposals from graduate students that get funding have a heavy influence from an advisor</div>
+<div> Student: yah</div>
+<div>4:36 PM what is your recommendation for broaching this stuff with other professors?</div>
+<div>4:37 PM because I definitely have areas of interest outside of statistics but the biggest challenge is figuring out a way to merge them with statistics in a meaningful way</div>
+<div>4:38 PM me: email them and ask to meet for 30 mins to discuss their research, let them know you are looking for an advisor, and plan on submitting an NSF proposal</div>
+<div>  before each meeting try to do some background reading on what their research entails</div>
+<div>4:39 PM i.e. read their website, read abstracts for recent papers (knowing you probably won't understand much), but it will help you come up with questions to ask that will make clear you have tried to come prepared</div>
+<div>4:40 PM Student: yah</div>
+<div>  thanks for the advice</div>
+<div>4:41 PM me: np</div></blockquote>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-20-modifying-priors-when-posteriors-dont-agree-with-intuition.html b/_posts/2011-10-20-modifying-priors-when-posteriors-dont-agree-with-intuition.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c5bcb329
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-20-modifying-priors-when-posteriors-dont-agree-with-intuition.html
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: modifying priors when posteriors don't agree with intuition
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Bayesian
+layout: post
+---
+I'm a big fan of <a title="Andrew Gelman blog" href="http://andrewgelman.com/" target="_blank">Andrew Gelman</a>, but the quote below from a <a title="Half-Cauchy priors for hierarchical variance parameters" href="http://ba.stat.cmu.edu/journal/2006/vol01/issue03/gelman.pdf" target="_blank">2006 article</a> worries me
+<blockquote> We view any noninformative or weakly-informative prior distribution as inherently
+provisional--after the model has been fit, one should look at the posterior distribution
+and see if it makes sense. If the posterior distribution does not make sense, this implies
+that additional prior knowledge is available that has not been included in the model,
+and that contradicts the assumptions of the prior distribution that has been used. It is
+then appropriate to go back and alter the prior distribution to be more consistent with
+this external knowledge.</blockquote>
+Isn't this exactly the potential problem that fuels anti-Bayesian sentiment?
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-21-no-error-error-in-openbugs.html b/_posts/2011-10-21-no-error-error-in-openbugs.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..ba8f6860
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-21-no-error-error-in-openbugs.html
@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: `No error' error in OpenBUGS
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+tags: 
+- initial values
+- no error
+- OpenBUGS
+layout: post
+---
+The following code produce no output and no error code in the OpenBUGS log file. Here is the code:
+<blockquote>kimodel &lt;- function() {
+for (i in 1:N) {
+y[i] ~ dbin(p[i],1)
+logit(p[i]) &lt;- b[ki[i],1]+b[ki[i],2]*dist[i]
+}
+
+for (k in 1:K) { b[k,1:2] ~ dmnorm(mu[1:2],Tau[1:2,1:2])  }
+
+for (j in 1:2) { mu[j] ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6) }
+}
+
+fn &lt;- file.path(tempdir(),"kimodel.txt")
+write.model(kimodel,fn)
+
+K &lt;- 4
+N &lt;- 25*4
+b &lt;- matrix(rnorm(K*2),K,2)
+b[,2] &lt;- 0
+dist &lt;- runif(N,18,60)
+ki &lt;- rep(1:4,each=25)
+y &lt;- rbinom(N,1,1/(1+exp(-b[ki,1]-b[ki,2]*dist)))
+
+data &lt;- list(N=N,K=K,y=y,ki=ki,dist=dist, Tau=diag(2))
+parameters &lt;- c("b","mu")
+
+nburn=1e4
+ki.sim &lt;- bugs(data,NULL,parameters,fn,n.chains=1,n.burnin=nburn,n.thin=1,n.iter=nburn*2)</blockquote>
+Which produced the following log file:
+<blockquote>OpenBUGS version 3.2.1 rev 781
+type 'modelQuit()' to quit
+OpenBUGS&gt; model is syntactically correct
+OpenBUGS&gt; data loaded
+OpenBUGS&gt; model compiled
+OpenBUGS&gt; OpenBUGS&gt; initial values generated, model initialized
+OpenBUGS&gt;</blockquote>
+and error in R. Apparently the offending line was
+<blockquote>for (j in 1:2) { mu[j] ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6) }</blockquote>
+which works when the precision is 1.0E-1 but not when it is 1.0E-2 or by initializing with reasonable values for mu through the inits argument. Since inits=NULL, the chain was initialized with a draw from the distribution which was, apparently, too far in the tails for the algorithm to work well. The only piece that is unfortunate here is that no error was provided in the log file. In the future, I will certainly be aware of my initial values when developing OpenBUGS models.
+
+&nbsp;
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-22-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-22.html b/_posts/2011-10-22-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-22.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..6d8872a3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-22-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-22.html
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-10-22
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/ISDS" class="aktt_username">ISDS</a> doesn&#039;t sound encouraging: &quot;CDC ...cannot... publish on any data without the express consent and notification of the jurisdiction&quot; <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/125947775505539073" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/ISUCy" class="aktt_username">ISUCy</a> @CycloneMBB 45% (59/131) <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/125980758992101377" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>putting here as a reminder for me to read <a href="http://t.co/6mp4PXOI" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/6mp4PXOI</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/126412724208025600" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>sorry I missed #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23SchoolTransmissionCoordinate" class="aktt_hashtag">SchoolTransmissionCoordinate</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/126720998983745536" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>can we bring dorm water battles to ISU? <a href="http://t.co/skVIWORu" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/skVIWORu</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/126735244366848001" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Stat @<a href="http://twitter.com/iastate" class="aktt_username">iastate</a> is hiring! <a href="http://t.co/gp9Kuhzf" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/gp9Kuhzf</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/126739825557647361" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>handy code for getting stock quotes in R only using base R functions <a href="http://t.co/mmheRnRQ" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/mmheRnRQ</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/126749431801458689" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>for easy website creation, I suggest <a href="http://t.co/KMTZT7Xn" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/KMTZT7Xn</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/126777219795263489" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>anybody help in understanding lmer formulas? <a href="http://t.co/BtQbGDtY" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/BtQbGDtY</a> helps, but I&#039;d like to see the model in math rather than words <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/127038929697390592" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>From <a href="http://t.co/SjQKRM0t" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/SjQKRM0t</a>, I found out about <a href="http://t.co/giKTWmUq" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/giKTWmUq</a>, infographics on $ about financial disparity in the US <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/127046130461712384" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-26-expected-left-pointing-arrow-or-twiddles-error-2.html b/_posts/2011-10-26-expected-left-pointing-arrow-or-twiddles-error-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..73dd1120
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-26-expected-left-pointing-arrow-or-twiddles-error-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: expected left pointing arrow <  - or twiddles ~ error
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- OpenBUGS
+layout: post
+---
+<a title="expected left pointing arrow or twiddles error" href="http://jaradniemi.com/2011/10/07/expected-left-pointing-arrow-or-twiddles-error/">Previously</a> this error was caused by not putting in the brackets for a vector, e.g. v[]. This time the error was caused by trying to include an if statement which is not supported by OpenBUGS. (At least as far as I can gather from the <a title="WinBUGS FAQ" href="http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs/faqs/contents.shtml#q15" target="_blank">WinBUGS FAQ</a>.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-26-expected-variable-name-error-2.html b/_posts/2011-10-26-expected-variable-name-error-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d3cb7a94
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-26-expected-variable-name-error-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: expected variable name error
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- OpenBUGS
+layout: post
+---
+I had another OpenBUGS expected variable name error. (Sorry, no code this time.)<a title="expected variable name error" href="jaradniemi.com/2011/10/07/expected-variable-name-error/"> Looking back at my own blog</a>, I realized that the error had been in my creation of the variable data that contains all of the variables that OpenBUGS uses. In that case, I had forgotten to give the variable in the list a name, i.e. data &lt;- list(y), so that data$y did not exist. In this case, all variables had the correct names, but I had accidentally included a variable that OpenBUGS did not need. I'm not sure why this should cause an error since I would think OpenBUGS would just disregard any extra variables (possibly with a warning). To reiterate, make sure all of your data passed to the function bugs are used in the OpenBUGS code.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-27-this-component-of-node-is-not-stochastic.html b/_posts/2011-10-27-this-component-of-node-is-not-stochastic.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..17863e87
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-27-this-component-of-node-is-not-stochastic.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: this component of node is not stochastic
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- OpenBUGS
+layout: post
+---
+Occurred when I tried to initialize something that was part of the data.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-27-update-error-for-node-algorithm-discrete-slice-updater-error-can-not-sample-node-too-many-iterations.html b/_posts/2011-10-27-update-error-for-node-algorithm-discrete-slice-updater-error-can-not-sample-node-too-many-iterations.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..3c93a299
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-27-update-error-for-node-algorithm-discrete-slice-updater-error-can-not-sample-node-too-many-iterations.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: update error for node...algorithm discrete slice updater error can not sample node  too many iterations
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- OpenBUGS
+layout: post
+---
+This OpenBUGS error was caused by bad initial values. In particular, I had inits=NULL which means that each chain generates its own initial values from the prior. The sampled values were terribly far from reasonable values causing the discrete slice updater to fail.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-10-29-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-29.html b/_posts/2011-10-29-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-29.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d33a3e7f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-10-29-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-10-29.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-10-29
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>Fifth confirmed H3N2 case <a href="http://t.co/jQsJu7g2" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/jQsJu7g2</a> and a picture showing the reassortment to create this variant <a href="http://t.co/XUDEXv0Y" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/XUDEXv0Y</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/129223447376166912" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>comments on the Yu and Meng ASIS Gibbs sampler paper <a href="http://t.co/X9qrVaRl" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/X9qrVaRl</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/129618435624800256" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-11-02-models.html b/_posts/2011-11-02-models.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..466728f3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-11-02-models.html
@@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Models
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Modeling
+- Statistics
+layout: post
+---
+In <a title="Andrew Gelman blog" href="http://andrewgelman.com/2011/10/when-people-meet-this-guy-can-they-resist-the-temptation-to-ask-him-what-hes-doing-for-breakfast/" target="_blank">Andrew Gelman</a> style, I am going to start turning some emails into blog posts. Mainly the motivation here is when there is material that I believe will be useful to a broader audience than just the recipient of the email. For those who are considering emailing me, I will ask you whether I can post to the blog or not (unless you are <a title="Chicken pox vaccine" href="http://jaradniemi.com/2010/11/03/chicken-pox-vaccine/">my mother</a>, in which case I won't ask). The additional benefit is that if others have words of wisdom they wish to add, they can do so here (at least for a limited time).
+
+Without further ado, from Eric:
+<blockquote>Data: I'm trying to work out how to analyze data where some variables
+are measured daily and others are a final result at the end of a
+growing season.  When you are doing the epidemiology studies - it
+seems the cases are counted up based on time, and then interventions
+are specific events.  Are these specific events incorporated into the
+models themselves (becoming an independent variable?) or just shown on
+the charts to visualize the effect?
+
+
+How often do you run into over fitting issues?  That is one of our
+concerns with our data set is that we have so many variables.
+
+Also the data set doesn't seem to neatly fit into any of the normal
+tools (statistics or data mining) that are out there.  But probably
+that is just because I'm not up to speed on what the
+scientific/statistical world normally does.  We have at least one
+dependent variable (yield) which is measured as a continuous variable,
+and we have dozens of independent variables, some of which are
+continuous, some are binary, and some are labels with many options
+(soil type, last year's crop type etc).  From what I've read so far,
+some techniques want all binary/label type independent variables, and
+other techniques use only continuous independent variables.  Do I need
+to 'artificially' break a continuous variable into a binary label
+(i.e. instead of using rainfall amounts, bin certain time periods
+(days/months/growing season ?) as low rain fall and high rain fall?
+Or are there some methods out there I should be reading up on?
+
+
+When I read your research interest "I build models to represent the
+fluctuations of protein levels within cells. These models are
+non-linear, multivariate processes that include both intrinsic and
+extrinsic noise as well as measurement error." I substituted in my
+application and thought maybe the same tools should be used.  (We have
+a multivariate situation, and things like the meteorological data
+could have a lot of measurement error.   But now I'm wondering if
+there is a big distinction for the term 'model'.  Does your 'model'
+include the connotation that it is a continuous system, that can
+(possibly) reach a steady state, but not a final destination?  So in
+our situation where we will reach the end of a growing system, does
+that call for entirely different methods from what you are doing?  Are
+Markov chains a subset of regression analysis, or an entirely
+different thing?</blockquote>
+My response:
+
+For me a model is a statistical model which describes a generative
+process for how the data actually observed arose. This is in contrast
+to most mathematical models which could never have generated the data
+yet may describe the data very well. It is unclear to me what computer
+scientists think a model is. In machine learning, unsupervised and
+supervised learning try to partition the data into groups. AFAIK, this
+is done typically without a statistical model. In statistics, we do
+the same thing (but we call it clustering and classification) and it
+is always based on a statistical model. The model could be continuous
+or discrete, it could have a steady-state or not, etc.
+
+Markov chains are stochastic (random) processes. They are chains
+because the observations from the process have an order. They are
+Markov because the evolution only depends on the most recent
+observation, not the whole history of observations. Markov chains can
+be used as models for data, although my main use for Markov chains is
+in estimating parameters through a technique called Markov chain Monte
+Carlo.
+
+Regression analysis attempts to identify the relationship between one
+dependent variable (outcome) and several independent variables
+(covariates or explanatory variables). If you say regression or linear
+regression, the outcome is typically thought of as being continuous
+while Poisson regression would be for count data and logistic
+regression would be for binary data. There are many other
+possibilities for continuous, count, and binary regressions, but these
+are the most common. Regression analysis does provide a model for data
+if you want it to.
+
+The term multivariate specifically refers to the outcome and whether
+it is a scalar or not. The latter being multivariate data. This has no
+relevance to how many covariates you have which may be numerous.
+
+The situation you described where you have one continuous outcome
+(yield) and many possible covariates that may be continuous, binary,
+or label (nominal or factor), the standard approach would use linear
+regression. Regression will accommodate all of these covariates with
+ease, i.e. no artificial breaking of continuous covariates. But the
+`linear' in linear regression means that you are making a linear
+assumption about the relationship between yield and each covariate. If
+this assumption is poor, it might be advantageous to break the
+continuous covariate into a partition preferably with 3 or more
+categories. Also, you are allowed to take a function of a covariate,
+e.g. logarithm which would assume that there is a linear relationship
+between outcome and the logarithm of that covariate.
+In addition to the covariates you have and functions of those
+covariates, you can have additional covariates called interactions
+which is simply the product of the covariates.
+
+Given all these covariate possibilities, overfitting is certainly an
+issue. If you have n data points and p covariates (where p is the sum
+of all covariates, functions of covariates, and interactions), then if
+n&gt;&gt;p (n is much larger than p) you may not need to worry about
+overfitting. If n and p are of similar order, then overfitting will be
+a series concern. If n&lt;p, you have the so called large p, small n
+problem, which there are also methods for. There are many ways of
+dealing with overfitting. The simplest is to use a model selection
+critierion such as AIC or BIC which weigh the benefit of adding
+additional parameters versus model complexity. (With a model that is
+complex enough we can fit the data perfectly, but the model will be of
+limited use.) The difference between AIC and BIC is how much they
+penalize complexity with BIC penalizing more and therefore preferring
+simpler models. Combine this with an automatic stepwise selection
+procedure to get some sense for what covariates are important.
+
+There are many other statistical methods that deal with
+non-linearities, interactions, and overfitting, e.g. multivariate
+adaptive regression splines (MARS) and Bayesian adaptive regression
+trees (BART). I'm not familiar enough with these (or other techniques)
+to know whether they require continuous covariates, although I can't
+imagine that they would.
+
+For your particular data analysis, the art will be in creating
+important covariates. For predicting yield, I would suspect the
+relevant covariates would be things like fertilizer, water,
+insecticide, etc. Perhaps the amount of water(ing) on the field is
+measured daily. Rather than taking these daily measurements as the
+covariates, you should feel free to create your own. For example, I
+can imagine that average water(ing) and standard deviation of
+water(ing) would be two relevant covariates. The former gives a sense
+for the total amount of water the field had while the second provides
+information about how that water was distributed, e.g. a little bit
+everyday or a lot every 2 weeks. Farmers may be able to give you more
+insight into the (perceived) importance of water at different times
+during the growing season which would suggest alternative/additional
+covariates.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-11-03-compstat-making-r-packages.html b/_posts/2011-11-03-compstat-making-r-packages.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..4f117675
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-11-03-compstat-making-r-packages.html
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: "CompStat: making R packages"
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+tags: 
+- Computational Statistics (CompStat) working group
+- R
+- Statistics
+layout: post
+---
+In my <a title="working groups" href="http://www.stat.iastate.edu/researchdiscussiongroups/index.html" target="_blank">Computational Statistics working group</a> yesterday, <a title="Yihui Xie homepage" href="http://yihui.name/" target="_blank">Yihui Xie</a> (a graduate student in the department) gave a <a title="Yihui talk" href="http://yihui.github.com/slides/r-dev-lessons.html" target="_blank">talk</a> about his experiences creating R packages. Yihui maintain 7 R packages: <a title="R::animation" href="http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/animation/index.html" target="_blank">animation</a>, <a title="R::formatR" href="http://cran.r-project.org/package=formatR" target="_blank">formatR</a>, <a title="R::Rd2roxygen" href="http://cran.r-project.org/package=Rd2roxygen" target="_blank">Rd2roxygen</a>, <a title="R::R2SWF" href="http://cran.r-project.org/package=R2SWF" target="_blank">R2SWF</a>, <a title="R::MSG" href="http://cran.r-project.org/package=MSG" target="_blank">MSG</a>, <a title="R::iBUGS" href="http://cran.r-project.org/package=iBUGS" target="_blank">iBUGS</a>, and <a title="R::fun" href="http://cran.r-project.org/package=fun" target="_blank">fun</a>. With two more in the works: <a title="R::cranvas" href="https://github.com/ggobi/cranvas/" target="_blank">cranvas</a> and <a title="R::knitr" href="https://github.com/yihui/knitr" target="_blank">knitr</a>. From the talk, the ones that I was particularly interested in are
+<ul>
+	<li>formatR which allows you to write sloppy R code and have formatR fix it up as well as convert = signs to -&gt; (or vice versa),</li>
+	<li>Rd2roxygen which is a counterpart to <a title="R::roxygen" href="http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/roxygen/index.html" target="_blank">roxygen</a> and aims at easing the process of documenting R packages by allowing the developer to write one document that contains both the code as well as the help documentation. roxygen separates these into their .R and .Rd files while Rd2roxygen does the opposite, i.e. when you want to update something in your code</li>
+	<li>iBUGS which is aimed at easing the massive number of arguments required when using <a title="R::R2WinBUGS" href="http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/R2WinBUGS/index.html" target="_blank">R2WinBUGS</a>. I did give this one a shot and it appears to mainly be a GUI for setting these arguments which doesn't interest me as much.</li>
+	<li>knitr which is meant to be an alternative to <a title="Sweave" href="http://www.stat.uni-muenchen.de/~leisch/Sweave/" target="_blank">Sweave</a> for creating living documents.</li>
+</ul>
+Give 'em a shot.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-11-05-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-11-05.html b/_posts/2011-11-05-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-11-05.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..91d92b6b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-11-05-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-11-05.html
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-11-05
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>in Stat. Sci. (with discussion): Bayesian procedures having (more precisely, not having) the correct confidence <a href="http://t.co/kmz9zu4e" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/kmz9zu4e</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/131048510861754368" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>supporting broader impacts at ISU <a href="http://t.co/29Q7hJ3K" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/29Q7hJ3K</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/131091776114143232" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>high speed internet access for rural america <a href="http://t.co/pnBKd3eC" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/pnBKd3eC</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/131396635333885952" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>wow, how did Google mess up its Reader this badly? I&#039;m switching, any suggestions? <a href="http://t.co/TDLL5Hgi" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/TDLL5Hgi</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/131783169358827521" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>trying <a href="http://t.co/e6oHBEk1" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/e6oHBEk1</a> but don&#039;t like it, suggestions? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/131784961765285889" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-11-11-bayesians-vs-non-bayesians.html b/_posts/2011-11-11-bayesians-vs-non-bayesians.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..a8f065e2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-11-11-bayesians-vs-non-bayesians.html
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: draft
+published: false
+title: Bayesians vs non-Bayesians
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Bayesian
+layout: post
+---
+From Eric,
+<blockquote>So as a Bayesian statistician, are you in the minority or the majority of statisticians?  I ran across Gelman's 2008 article articulating some stereotypical concerns, now I'm wondering how much of a flash point Bayes is.</blockquote>
+Bayesian analysis was certainly a flash point about a decade ago, but is becoming more accepted as it proves itself in practice. We are definitely in the minority, but this minority has only been created due to computational resources. Had we had computers in the early 1900s, I'm convinced we would have been doing Bayesian statistics and perhaps just now would have been talking about p-values and confidence intervals, i.e. the history would have been reversed. The question is where is the future going and, particularly for us, where is the short-term future, i.e. during our lifetime. Clearly the trend is going more Bayesian. Many statistics departments are specifically hiring Bayesians. My department is incorporating Bayesian ideas into its core master's curriculum because it believes that graduate students with a master's degree in statistics without knowledge of Bayesian ideas is doing a disservice to those students. .
+
+<a title="Objections to Bayesian statistics" href="http://ba.stat.cmu.edu/journal/2008/vol03/issue03/gelman.pdf" target="_blank">Gelman's article</a> (<a title="Bayesian analysis" href="http://ba.stat.cmu.edu/vol03is03.php" target="_blank">comments and rejoinder</a>) does a reasonable job of laying down some anti-Bayesian arguments (although most of them he doesn't believe), although the presentation could have been improved, i.e. bullet points. I think the main objection to Bayesian analysis is using a prior because it is `drawn from thin air.' Of course, the likelihood (statistical model) is also drawn from thin air. So really the argument is against an additional assumption, i.e. the prior. In many models an objective prior exists and the results exactly match the MLE and confidence intervals. This is great because now you get interpretation from both perspectives.
+
+There should be an additional article with anti-frequentist ideas. Here are some main issues:
+- Limited coherence to frequentist procedures, i.e. p-values depend on your test statistic, confidence intervals depend on your parameterization, etc.
+- You require asymptotic normality, how large a sample size is necessary anyway?
+- Even in simple examples, you violate the likelihood principle.
+- As a scientist what does a p-value mean to me? i.e. if my p-value is 0.05, what is the probability of the null hypotheses being true. (In a <a title="P-value interpretation" href="http://www.isds.duke.edu/~berger/papers/99-13.html" target="_blank">very simple setup you can show that the probability of the null is at least 23%</a>. See also the <a title="Pvalue applet" href="http://www.isds.duke.edu/~berger/applet2/pvalue.html" target="_blank">applet</a> and <a title="applet paper" href="http://www.isds.duke.edu/~berger/applet2/applet.pdf" target="_blank">associated paper</a>.)
+- As a scientist, what does being 95% confident mean? I want to know where my parameter is, not what will happen with the interval if I repeat the experiment over and over and over. I'm gonna do the experiment once, maybe twice, shouldn't that be enough to tell me where the parameter is?
diff --git a/_posts/2011-11-11-kl-divergence-versus-chi-square-tests.html b/_posts/2011-11-11-kl-divergence-versus-chi-square-tests.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c8e21040
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-11-11-kl-divergence-versus-chi-square-tests.html
@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: draft
+published: false
+title: KL divergence versus Chi-square tests
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+tags: 
+- Statistics
+layout: post
+---
+<div>From the inbox:</div>
+<blockquote>
+<div>
+
+For the Vector-Item pattern algorithm, we have been finding a distribution histogram of our data and then comparing it against a random distribution using Chi squared tests to determine if the distributions are significantly different.  One of the other graduate students has been looking at the Kullback–Leibler divergence:
+<blockquote>Actually I am looking to how can I say that the divergence between two distribution is significant or not? like if I apply KLD(P|Q) and I get a value say 0.0002 nats, So Is this value (0.0002) significant or not.
+Like as you said for Chi Squared test, we have a table the we can obtain the P-value to decide significance of the Chi Squared test result. Is there a table for KLD test?</blockquote>
+</div></blockquote>
+<div>
+<div>I'm not sure what you mean by a random distribution, somehow I'm guessing you don't mean a random probability distribution, but perhaps you do. What is the null hypothesis in this case?  Usually we test goodness-of-fit with a probability distribution possibly with unknown parameters. I'm guessing you mean either 1) a random histogram drawn from some distribution or 2) you test versus many distributions and you are calling process by which you obtain these distributions random.</div>
+<div>I have no idea what the vector-item pattern algorithm is, but you could certainly create a table for the KLD test. Do a simulation study where you compare two independent realizations from whatever mechanism is generating your random distributions. Calculate the KLD. Repeat this procedure so that you have an entire histogram of KLD values. Then compare the KLD obtained with your data histogram vs this histogram and calculate the percentage of KLD values that are larger.</div>
+<blockquote>
+<div>Everything I have read so far (mostly Wikipedia) uses divergence in a maximizing or minimizing context.  But I see both Chi squared and Divergence are listed as measures of "statistical difference".</div>
+<div>Any thoughts on the pro/con of using Chi Squared vs. KL Divergence as a way to compare actual data with a random distribution to test the null hypothesis?</div></blockquote>
+<div>The chi-squared statistic is very general in that it comes up whenever you have a test statistic that has a chi-squared distribution. I'm guessing perhaps you take your histogram and bin it somehow and then have counts in the bins. The sum of the squared differences between the observed and expected divided by expected which gives Pearson's goodness-of-fit test. This test is usually reasonable if bin counts are greater than 5. Why not try both and see when they agree and when they disagree? Perhaps that will give some insight into what is going on.</div>
+<blockquote>
+<div>I saw on the Wikipedia article that Kullback and Liebler originally defined the divergence as <img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/math/7/f/f/7ff1f435ab3bc3cb4654ab665e7e57a2.png" alt=" D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P\|Q) + D_{\mathrm{KL}}(Q\|P)\, \!" /> to make it symmetric. Any idea why this fell out of favor and is no longer used?  (Just idle curiosity on my part for this question.)</div></blockquote>
+<div>Perhaps because you often have a distribution you want to use a reference in which case the symmetry is unimportant?</div>
+</div>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-11-11-mathematical-vs-statistical-models.html b/_posts/2011-11-11-mathematical-vs-statistical-models.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..91e53e46
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-11-11-mathematical-vs-statistical-models.html
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: draft
+published: false
+title: Mathematical vs statistical models
+meta: 
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Statistics
+layout: post
+---
+I'd like to flesh out my ideas about the different types of models people use. In continuation of a <a title="models" href="http://jaradniemi.com/2011/11/02/models/">previous discussion</a>, Eric writes:
+<blockquote>I asked a CS prof that works with simulations/models about the difference between mathematical and statistical models.  I might be exaggerating a bit... but he seemed to think it was a trivial issue - we should just pick the appropriate model for the problem we are trying to solve with worrying about semantics!</blockquote>
+Previously I had defined a statistical model as a generative model for the data. In my definition a mathematical model could be made into a statistical model by adding randomness that allows for the data that are actually observed. For example, a mathematical model could be y=a+bx where y and x are known and a and b are parameters to be estimated. A statistical version (regression) is y=a+bx+e where e is now given a probability distribution, e.g. normal with mean zero and unknown variance. One inferential advantage to the latter is that we can estimate a and b and provide uncertainty about their estimates.
+
+Many people do not worry about this step and just estimate the parameters and treat them as the truth. This will provide overconfidence in any predictions that are being made.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-11-12-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-11-12.html b/_posts/2011-11-12-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-11-12.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..b7e44d72
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-11-12-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-11-12.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-11-12
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>a website about approximate Bayesian computation <a href="http://t.co/XHn1GKvQ" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/XHn1GKvQ</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/133915288050737152" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-11-19-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-11-19.html b/_posts/2011-11-19-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-11-19.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..4a74ea8f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-11-19-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-11-19.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-11-19
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>why don&#039;t academics all put copies of their papers on their websites (this is usually allowed for under copyright agreements)...annoying <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/137004982976266241" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-12-07-iowa-contingent-at-the-2011-isds-conference.html b/_posts/2011-12-07-iowa-contingent-at-the-2011-isds-conference.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..8d021a3e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-12-07-iowa-contingent-at-the-2011-isds-conference.html
@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Iowa Contingent at the 2011 ISDS Conference
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+tags: 
+- ISDS
+layout: post
+---
+Here are the list of presenters from Iowa at the 2011 ISDS Conference (if I've left you off, please let me know).
+<ul>
+	<li>Philip Polgreen</li>
+	<li>Geoffrey Fairchild</li>
+	<li>Eric Foster</li>
+	<li>Jason Fries</li>
+	<li>Tina McCarty</li>
+	<li>Aaron Miller</li>
+	<li>Mauricio Monsalve</li>
+	<li>Jarad Niemi</li>
+	<li>Alessio Signorini</li>
+	<li>Jacob Simmering</li>
+	<li>Sean Tolentino</li>
+	<li>Chao Yang</li>
+	<li>Ming Yang</li>
+</ul>
+I believe everybody but me is from the <a title="Computational Epidemiology" href="http://compepi.cs.uiowa.edu/" target="_blank">Computational Epidemiology</a> group in the <a title="Computer Science at University of Iowa" href="https://www.cs.uiowa.edu/" target="_blank">Computer Science Department</a> at the <a title="University of Iowa" href="http://www.uiowa.edu/" target="_blank">University of Iowa</a>.
diff --git a/_posts/2011-12-08-bayesian-spatialtemporal-position-at-university-of-arkansas.html b/_posts/2011-12-08-bayesian-spatialtemporal-position-at-university-of-arkansas.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c064dc3e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-12-08-bayesian-spatialtemporal-position-at-university-of-arkansas.html
@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Bayesian spatial/temporal position at University of Arkansas
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+From <a title="Giovanni Petris" href="http://definetti.uark.edu/~gpetris/" target="_blank">Giovanni Petris</a>:
+<blockquote>
+Tenure Track Position Assistant Professor
+
+The University Of Arkansas Department Of Mathematical Sciences invites
+applications for one or more tenure-track Assistant Professor
+positions to begin in August 2012. Candidates who wish to be
+considered for short term positions should indicate this on their
+application. These positions are open to all candidates whose research
+interests match those of the faculty, with preference in the general
+areas of statistics (in particular Bayesian inference, state space
+models, spatial statistics, and analysis of functional data),
+probability, low dimensional topology, geometric group theory,
+algebraic geometry, commutative algebra and related
+subjects. Candidates are required to have received a Ph.D. or
+equivalent degree in Mathematics, Statistics, or a closely related
+area by the start of their appointment. Applicants should exhibit
+evidence of outstanding research potential and commitment to
+teaching. Additional information is available on our website:
+http://math.uark.edu. For questions e-mail: math2012@uark.edu. The
+application should include curriculum vitae, a publication list, and
+brief descriptions of research interests and teaching
+philosophy. Applicants should also arrange for at least four letters
+of recommendation to be sent, at least one of which must address the
+applicant's teaching experience and capabilities. Applicants are
+strongly encouraged to submit all application materials electronically
+via MathJobs (http://www.mathjobs.org), including a complete AMS
+Standard Cover Sheet, or ASA JobWeb
+(http://jobs.amstat.org). Applications can also be mailed to:
+
+Department of Mathematical Sciences
+Tenure-track Hiring Committee
+SCEN 301
+1 University of Arkansas
+Fayetteville, AR 72701
+
+Completed applications received by December 12, 2011 will receive full
+consideration. Late applications will continue to be accepted and
+reviewed as necessary to fill the position. The Department of
+Mathematical Sciences is committed to increasing the number of women
+and minority faculty. The University of Arkansas is an Affirmative
+Action/EOE institution committed to achieving diversity in its faculty
+and staff. The University is especially interested in applications
+from qualified candidates who would contribute to the diversity of all
+program area. The University of Arkansas also has a commitment to be
+responsive to the needs of dual career couples. For additional
+information about the University of Arkansas, see the University's Web
+Site: http://www.uark.edu/. All applicants are subject to public
+disclosure under the Arkansas Freedom of Information Act and persons
+hired must have proof of legal authority to work in the United States.</blockquote>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-12-10-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-12-10.html b/_posts/2011-12-10-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-12-10.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..ab90a45f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-12-10-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2011-12-10.html
@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-12-10
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>my poster on a measles outbreak in Zimbabwe in 2010 for #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> <a href="http://t.co/bS65ycvc" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/bS65ycvc</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/143709440867188736" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>catching up on my @<a href="http://twitter.com/sciencemagazine" class="aktt_username">sciencemagazine</a> reading, photos help catch E. coli outbreak in sprouts <a href="http://t.co/j79XPjl4" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/j79XPjl4</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144069934077583361" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>catching up on @<a href="http://twitter.com/sciencemagazine" class="aktt_username">sciencemagazine</a> reading, new vaccine research lobbying group <a href="http://t.co/oXVEmWaM" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/oXVEmWaM</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144070772145651712" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>+1 for #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> providing in-room wireless access, -1 for no access in conference rooms (no real-time commentary) <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144439867017936896" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>+1 #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> turns out there is (some) wireless access, Philip Polgreen currently promoting #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23Iowa" class="aktt_hashtag">Iowa</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144444155362422785" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Philip Polgreen&#039;s website #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> <a href="http://t.co/KEHtj1Yy" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/KEHtj1Yy</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144445238369468417" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Marcel Salathe website <a href="http://t.co/VekDUWu4" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/VekDUWu4</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144445787273830400" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/marcelsalathe" class="aktt_username">marcelsalathe</a> #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> sure, but the information still has to be broadly distributed <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144446977017528320" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> @<a href="http://twitter.com/marcelsalathe" class="aktt_username">marcelsalathe</a> collecting lots of twitter data <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144447620784455680" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Mark Smolinski mentions that we should ask people directly rather than using passive systems <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144448688729755648" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Smolinski mentions <a href="http://t.co/jWPzr4Ck" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/jWPzr4Ck</a> a site with self-reporting flu symptoms <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144449056989655041" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Smolinski introduces <a href="http://t.co/CcuwPvzE" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/CcuwPvzE</a> perhaps has the possibility to get information on recovery rates? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144449481054765057" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/a_signorini" class="aktt_username">a_signorini</a> agreed. perhaps a suggestion for next year (otherwise we will have two different tags) <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144450539818725376" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> @<a href="http://twitter.com/kasshout" class="aktt_username">kasshout</a> speaking, here is his blog <a href="http://t.co/A5dWalbw" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/A5dWalbw</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144451024466358273" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> biosense2.0 came out in Nov&#039;11 <a href="http://t.co/1coD23Ho" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/1coD23Ho</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144451743600742401" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> to learn how to make optimal decisions (as was just asked), come see my talk 2pm Wed in Georgia 2,3 <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144455850067632129" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/SteveDavis92" class="aktt_username">SteveDavis92</a> I think it means signal coverage #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144458973368692736" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Farzad mentions <a href="http://t.co/DRoPFNax" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/DRoPFNax</a> as providing immediate user feedback <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144459317783965696" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> e-Health evaluation: Bellagio call to action <a href="http://t.co/tfs5nK4w" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/tfs5nK4w</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144467979202080769" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> six #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23Iowa" class="aktt_hashtag">Iowa</a> talks in a row in Georgia 2,3 <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144507231545733120" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>new LAS dean <a href="http://t.co/LJ6GUXxO" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/LJ6GUXxO</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144510437176786944" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Sriram Somanchi now speaking in Spatial Cluster Detection I, GA 2/3 <a href="http://t.co/CoEJFagz" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/CoEJFagz</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144527766375772160" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/2011ISDSConference" class="aktt_username">2011ISDSConference</a> Somanchi learning graph structure for disease outbreaks <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144528130076442625" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Daniel Neill detecting previously unseen outbreaks <a href="http://t.co/MRnAfwTC" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/MRnAfwTC</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144532592400674816" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Luis Duczmal discussing Voronoi based spatial scan statistics <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144538111882444800" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> starting the day off irregular with Skyler Speakman GA 2/3 <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144763973416390656" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Ana Corberan with a Bayesian approach to the spatio-temporal detection problem GA 2/3 <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144774241269714945" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Yevgeniy Elbert talking about finding clusters of unusual patient ZIP codes GA 2/3 <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144779609697824768" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23Influenza" class="aktt_hashtag">Influenza</a> #H3N2 in #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23Iowa" class="aktt_hashtag">Iowa</a> in children who have fully recovered <a href="http://t.co/U4FhPaOa" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/U4FhPaOa</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144786886832041986" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> use of ESSENCE (<a href="http://t.co/f6e7OoE2" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/f6e7OoE2</a>) in the VA discussed by Howard Burkom (<a href="http://t.co/dqWiFxrv" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/dqWiFxrv</a>) GA 2/3 <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144788211359682560" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Anne Fouillet (<a href="http://t.co/mNWPtyCl" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/mNWPtyCl</a>) analyzing ED visits in Paris  GA 2/3 <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144793002253099008" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Eric Lau discussing the use of DLMs (<a href="http://t.co/3JGAFhgU" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/3JGAFhgU</a>) for disease surveillance <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144799350000848896" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> joint presentation by Lana Deyneka and Howard Burkom about time-of-arrival clusters in EDs <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144802341990834176" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011IDSDConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011IDSDConference</a> Jason Fries (<a href="http://t.co/YvJkJSya" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/YvJkJSya</a>) on incorporating user authority <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144811913061203969" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Jason Fries (<a href="http://t.co/l4xbvutz…" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/l4xbvutz…</a>) on incorporating user authority GA 2/3 <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144815282635018241" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Dina Passman (@notjustanepi) discussing the 2010 Haiti Earthquake GA 2/3 <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144816783432482817" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> research meeting GA 9/10, house data securely,  allow algorithms to run on the data, generate analysis report <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144838693985845248" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Res.Meet. possible sub-committees: methodology developers vs methodology seekers <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144839622613151744" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%232011ISDSConference" class="aktt_hashtag">2011ISDSConference</a> Alex Garza &quot;to see a good catfight, don&#039;t put 3 lawyers into a room. put 3 modelers into a room&quot; <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/144854258947342338" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2011-12-15-convergence-to-a-distribution.html b/_posts/2011-12-15-convergence-to-a-distribution.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..529f28fc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2011-12-15-convergence-to-a-distribution.html
@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Convergence to a distribution
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+tags: 
+- Bayesian
+- convergence
+- MCMC
+- multimodal
+- random-walk Metropolis
+layout: post
+---
+A non-stats colleague asked me yesterday about what happens to an MCMC chain when the posterior is multimodal. I believe their mindset is that convergence happens to a point since this is the way the many algorithms work, e.g. <a title="optimization" href="http://www.amazon.com/Practical-Methods-Optimization-R-Fletcher/dp/0471494631/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1323971801&amp;sr=8-2" target="_blank">hill-climbing algorithms</a>. MCMC chains, as typically used in Bayesian analysis, don't converge to a point rather they <strong>converge to a distribution</strong>. So an MCMC chain will explore the entire posterior which includes all modes of that posterior.
+
+Take a simple example where the posterior is a equal-weighted mixture of two normal distributions both with variance 1. The means of these distributions are positive and negative some known constant, in the example below I used 3. If the constant is sufficiently large, then the distribution is multimodal and an MCMC algorithm will alternate (although not every iteration) between the two modes as it samples. Below I implemented a random-walk Metropolis algorithm that samples from this distribution. From the partial traceplot it is clear that this algorithm gets stuck in both modes for a few iterations before making its way to the other mode.
+
+Of course problems can get much more complicated and more sophisticated algorithms, e.g. <a title="Simulated annealing " href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulated_annealing" target="_blank">simulated annealing</a> and <a title="Parallel tempering" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_tempering" target="_blank">parallel tempering</a> (see chapter 10 of <a title="Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo" href="http://www.amazon.com/Handbook-Chapman-Handbooks-Statistical-Methods/dp/1420079417/ref=sr_1_sc_2?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1323972259&amp;sr=1-2-spell" target="_blank">this book</a> for recent developments), are necessary for exploring these posteriors.
+
+<a href="http://jaradniemi.com/2011/12/15/convergence-to-a-distribution/convergencetodistribution/" rel="attachment wp-att-1182"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1182" title="convergenceToDistribution" src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/convergenceToDistribution.png" alt="" width="480" height="480" /></a>
+
+<script src="https://gist.github.com/1482981.js"> </script>
+
+Edit: Trying out <a href="https://gist.github.com/" title="Gist" target="_blank">gist.github.com</a>. How can I decease the font size?
diff --git a/_posts/2012-01-07-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-07-2.html b/_posts/2012-01-07-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-07-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..902d2139
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-01-07-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-07-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-01-07
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>RT @<a href="http://twitter.com/CNN" class="aktt_username">CNN</a>: Professor questions Iowa&#039;s place in elections and creates a stir. <a href="http://t.co/TaBj1HIu" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/TaBj1HIu</a> not a good way 2 treat your employer <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/153130365085679616" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>RT @<a href="http://twitter.com/TheAtlantic" class="aktt_username">TheAtlantic</a>: Fuel is now the most valuable U.S. export -- and we have regulations to thank for that <a href="http://t.co/vIJx3UvM" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/vIJx3UvM</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/154955620297080834" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-01-07-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-07.html b/_posts/2012-01-07-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-07.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..96dd6f3a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-01-07-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-07.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: future
+published: false
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-01-07
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: ""
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>RT @<a href="http://twitter.com/CNN" class="aktt_username">CNN</a>: Professor questions Iowa&#039;s place in elections and creates a stir. <a href="http://t.co/TaBj1HIu" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/TaBj1HIu</a> not a good way 2 treat your employer <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/153130365085679616" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>RT @<a href="http://twitter.com/TheAtlantic" class="aktt_username">TheAtlantic</a>: Fuel is now the most valuable U.S. export -- and we have regulations to thank for that <a href="http://t.co/vIJx3UvM" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/vIJx3UvM</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/154955620297080834" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-01-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-14.html b/_posts/2012-01-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-14.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..947c58a9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-01-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-14.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-01-14
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>RT @<a href="http://twitter.com/AP" class="aktt_username">AP</a>: &#039;No Child Left Behind&#039; a failure, a surprise? <a href="http://t.co/RAuKeYWA" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/RAuKeYWA</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/155854764096225280" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-01-21-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-21.html b/_posts/2012-01-21-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-21.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..30f9d181
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-01-21-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-21.html
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-01-21
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>whooping cough outbreak in WI. Ashland being hit hard <a href="http://t.co/P4DChn2r" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/P4DChn2r</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/158205284903419906" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>a Des Moines register article on Iowa State&#039;s new president <a href="http://t.co/EZapxvvQ" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/EZapxvvQ</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/158919911207477250" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>black-out of #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23Wikipedia" class="aktt_hashtag">Wikipedia</a> is going to backfire! I&#039;m against #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23SOPA" class="aktt_hashtag">SOPA</a> and I have no idea what #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23PIPA" class="aktt_hashtag">PIPA</a> is, but censoring yourself is not the soln. <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/159694927230537730" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/ryanjparker" class="aktt_username">ryanjparker</a> good tip, but they are censoring themselves to create awareness...I&#039;m more pissed at #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23wikipedia" class="aktt_hashtag">wikipedia</a> than I am at my legislators <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/159719927979327488" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-01-28-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-28.html b/_posts/2012-01-28-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-28.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..dfe3f8dd
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-01-28-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-28.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-01-28
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>my CompEpi (<a href="http://t.co/OqVzoYZD" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/OqVzoYZD</a>) seminar talk <a href="http://t.co/tp7jFkdk" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/tp7jFkdk</a> from yesterday <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/160906897933860864" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-02-04-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-02-04.html b/_posts/2012-02-04-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-02-04.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d7028044
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-02-04-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-02-04.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-02-04
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/hadleywickham" class="aktt_username">hadleywickham</a> (<a href="http://t.co/rhKnRaWs" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/rhKnRaWs</a>) just gave a talk on the psychology of data visualization @<a href="http://twitter.com/IowaStateU" class="aktt_username">IowaStateU</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/165518679201685505" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/hadleywickham" class="aktt_username">hadleywickham</a> where&#039;d you get the data for the diamond price by quality? gotta add that to my list of Simpson&#039;s Paradox examples <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/165519332653285376" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-02-18-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-02-18.html b/_posts/2012-02-18-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-02-18.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..20f4292c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-02-18-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-02-18.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-02-18
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/nytimes" class="aktt_username">nytimes</a> <a href="http://t.co/BBphJI9M" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/BBphJI9M</a> &quot;It’s like an arms race to hire statisticians nowadays.&quot; <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/170193361611923456" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-02-20-current-flu-status.html b/_posts/2012-02-20-current-flu-status.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..45c37370
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-02-20-current-flu-status.html
@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Current flu status
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+tags: 
+- Influenza
+layout: post
+---
+Since me and my family are current `under the weather' I thought I would check in on the current flu status. I looked at 3 sources of information about influenza: <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm" title="CDC Flu" target="_blank">CDC</a>, <a href="http://www.google.org/flutrends/us/#US" title="US Google Flu Trends" target="_blank">Google Flu Trends</a>, and <a href="https://flunearyou.org/" title="Flu Near You" target="_blank">Flu Near You</a>. The US-wide time series for this year from these sites is provided below. 
+
+Of the default plots that each of these sites has, Google is the only one with a quick way of comparing this season to other seasons (dark blue line [current] vs light blue lines [previous]). So far it has been a pretty mild flu season. But taking a look at the CDC and Flu Near You sites, it looks like the number of cases has been dramatically increasing in the past couple of weeks. 
+
+The main question of interest is how high will the peak go and how wide will it be. Based on nothing more than my absolute guess, I believe we will see 2 more weeks of increased flu activity, i.e. the peak will be 201208 on the CDC plot. I believe the max height will be 4.3 on Flu Near You and 18% on the CDC percent positive. Let's see what happens.
+
+
+CDC Flu data:
+<a href="http://jaradniemi.com/2012/02/20/current-flu-status/cdcflu20022012/" rel="attachment wp-att-1212"><img src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/cdcFlu20022012.png" alt="" title="cdcFlu20022012" width="619" height="448" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1212" /></a>
+
+Google Flu Trends:
+<a href="http://jaradniemi.com/2012/02/20/current-flu-status/flutrends20022012/" rel="attachment wp-att-1210"><img src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/fluTrends20022012.png" alt="" title="fluTrends20022012" width="605" height="236" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1210" /></a>
+
+Flu Near Your (no idea why they start the plot at the peak of last year's season):
+<a href="http://jaradniemi.com/2012/02/20/current-flu-status/flunearyou20022012/" rel="attachment wp-att-1211"><img src="http://jaradniemi.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/fluNearYou20022012.png" alt="" title="fluNearYou20022012" width="695" height="342" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1211" /></a>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-02-21-publishing-datasets.html b/_posts/2012-02-21-publishing-datasets.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..fa0f6d9c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-02-21-publishing-datasets.html
@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Publishing datasets
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _oembed_2173bfe2765c12272dd2b7df8ff1a270: "{{unknown}}"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Datasets
+- Science
+layout: post
+---
+From the inbox:
+
+
+<blockquote>Dear Dr. Niemi,
+
+I am writing to invite you to submit a manuscript to the recently launched journal Dataset Papers in Cell Biology, which is part of a series of journals published by Datasets International (http://www.datasets.com/). Dataset Papers in Cell Biology is an open access journal that is focused entirely on the publication of Dataset Papers, which are relatively short articles that describe a piece of experimental or observational data that an author has collected. Alongside each Dataset Paper, a copy of the underlying data that is described in the paper will be made freely available for readers to download.
+
+Authors are welcome to submit Dataset Papers that describe either a piece of data that has already been discussed in a traditional research article, or a manuscript describing a new set of data that has not yet been discussed in a research article. Manuscripts submitted to Dataset Papers in Cell Biology should contain a detailed explanation of the methodology and materials used in conducting the experiment, as well as enough metadata about the accompanying dataset to make this data clear and useful for other researchers. More detailed information can be found in the journal's author guidelines, which are located at http://www.datasets.com/journals/cb/guidelines/.
+
+The journal has a distinguished Editorial Board composed of leading cell biology researchers from around the world, a list of whom can be found at http://www.datasets.com/journals/cb/editors/. Dataset Papers in Cell Biology is published using an open access publication model, meaning that all interested readers are able to freely access the journal online without the need for a subscription. The journal does not currently require any page charges, color charges, or article processing charges, and authors will not be charged any fee for the hosting of their underlying data.
+
+Manuscripts should be submitted to the journal online at http://mts.datasets.com/author/submit/cb/. Once a manuscript has been accepted for publication, it will undergo language copyediting, typesetting, and reference validation in order to provide the highest publication quality possible.
+
+Please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions about the journal.
+
+Best regards,
+
+Soha Labib
+
+-----------------------------------------
+Soha Labib
+Editorial Office
+Dataset Papers in Cell Biology
+Datasets International
+http://www.datasets.com/
+-----------------------------------------</blockquote>
+
+This is fantastic! I hope that funding agencies start recognizing scientist who create valuable data sets. There is no reason that a scientist should be an expert at the techniques required to generate high quality data sets and the analysis of those data. If there was some measure of how often a scientists data set was used, then perhaps there would be a way to reward scientists for creating these valuable data sets. Publishing the experimental protocol and the data created is certainly a step in the right direction since the paper can be referenced and those references can be counted.
diff --git a/_posts/2012-04-13-its-annoying-when-the-high-and-mighty-statisticians-get-the-statistics-wrong.html b/_posts/2012-04-13-its-annoying-when-the-high-and-mighty-statisticians-get-the-statistics-wrong.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..1f4d83ac
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-04-13-its-annoying-when-the-high-and-mighty-statisticians-get-the-statistics-wrong.html
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: It's annoying when the high-and-mighty statisticians get the statistics wrong
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+I'm having a conversation with my mother about the evidence for acupuncture being an effective treatment. This is not my area of expertise nor my mom's, but through discussions my mom is now starting to scour the primarily literature for evidence. I think this is great! In trying to understand where I think the evidence is, I came across the website <a href="http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/" title="Science-based Medicine" target="_blank">Science-based Medicine</a> which has a <a href="http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/index.php/acupuncture-for-migraine/" title="Science-based Medicine" target="_blank">post</a> about a <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22231691" title="Acupuncture study" target="_blank">particular acupuncture study</a>. 
+
+The post proceeds to point out all the deficiencies in the study. Of course, you can do this with all studies and all statistical analyses, i.e. you can always include more variables, more treatments, more parameters in your model. I did agree that I wasn't sure what the point of the electrical stimulation was and that this appears to unnecessarily complicate the study and analysis. I also agree that the study seemed to be set up as a confirmatory study with the primary outcome being the number of migraines in the 5-8 weeks after randomization. The <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22231691" title="Acupuncture study" target="_blank">original study</a> mentions that the acupuncture groups had fewer migraines, but the result was not statistical significant (p>0.05). 
+
+My main problem with the post from Science-based Medicine is this statement:
+<blockquote>we can conclude that acupuncture does not work for migraines.</blockquote>
+This is making the statistical error of accepting the null hypothesis when, in fact, all the pvalue tells you is that your sample size was insufficient to reject the null hypothesis. 
+
+I realize this post makes me a bit high-and-mighty, but I am willing to give people who aren't so high-and-mighty some leeway. In particular, the researchers who are generating the data are working under time, money, and publication pressure. They probably didn't include a full control group because then people would have complained that the patients weren't blinded. They needed to have found something significant for their manuscript to get published at all. They were honest in their abstract about their primary outcome and its statistical insignificance. For those who are interested in discrediting acupuncture (again I have no idea if there is any real effect), they should just have stopped with `the primary outcome in this blinded study of acupuncture showed no significant difference between sham acupuncture and 3 particular acupuncture practices.'
diff --git a/_posts/2012-04-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-04-14.html b/_posts/2012-04-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-04-14.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..226e34b2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-04-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-04-14.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-04-14
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>Department of Statistical Science 25th Anniversary Conference website <a href="http://t.co/4AIVjsNS" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/4AIVjsNS</a> #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23StatSci25" class="aktt_hashtag">StatSci25</a> @<a href="http://twitter.com/StatSciDuke" class="aktt_username">StatSciDuke</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/190165028685627392" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>I like the new @<a href="http://twitter.com/StatSciDuke" class="aktt_username">StatSciDuke</a> website <a href="http://t.co/85Or27wY" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/85Or27wY</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/190165223653638145" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-04-21-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-04-21.html b/_posts/2012-04-21-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-04-21.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..78e7a0c9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-04-21-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-04-21.html
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-04-21
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>Nice! #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23SumatraPDF" class="aktt_hashtag">SumatraPDF</a> viewer for Syncing with #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23WinEdt" class="aktt_hashtag">WinEdt</a> <a href="http://t.co/Kjj6SNvr" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/Kjj6SNvr</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/192430407881457664" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>a plug for #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23statistics" class="aktt_hashtag">statistics</a> in @<a href="http://twitter.com/sciencemagazine" class="aktt_username">sciencemagazine</a> <a href="http://t.co/jcJ6WyEZ" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/jcJ6WyEZ</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/192673047281545216" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>check it out <a href="http://t.co/Pcgmvc5C" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/Pcgmvc5C</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/192702186025779201" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-04-28-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-04-28.html b/_posts/2012-04-28-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-04-28.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c8f6ba34
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-04-28-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-04-28.html
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-04-28
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>funny R error: &gt; ????influence.measures
+Contacting Delphi...the oracle is unavailable.
+We apologize for any inconvenience. <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/195236719405178880" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>listening to a STAT 544 talk on Leishmaniasis (<a href="http://t.co/eB7HdHb0" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/eB7HdHb0</a>) ... nasty disease <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/195503484261511169" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>empirical Bayes isn&#039;t Bayes: <a href="http://t.co/K7npkOXg" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/K7npkOXg</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/195914487268786178" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-05-05-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-05-05.html b/_posts/2012-05-05-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-05-05.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..85516242
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-05-05-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-05-05.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-05-05
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>an interactive graphic about clustering of US senators: <a href="http://t.co/NKLcgMt0" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/NKLcgMt0</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/197061913358778368" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-06-15-parameters-are-fixed-but-unknown-even-to-bayesians.html b/_posts/2012-06-15-parameters-are-fixed-but-unknown-even-to-bayesians.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..512d6930
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-06-15-parameters-are-fixed-but-unknown-even-to-bayesians.html
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: parameters are fixed but unknown even to Bayesians
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+When I was introduced to Bayesian statistics, I heard the phrase: "for Bayesians, parameters are random". I took this at face value for years even though I didn't believe it. Instead, I thought of parameters as fixed, but our uncertainty about their value assigned a probability distribution. I was happy to find this <a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1006.5366v4" title="arXiv" target="_blank">arXiv article</a> to be published as a discussion paper in <a href="http://amstat.tandfonline.com/loi/tas" title="The American Statistician" target="_blank">The American Statistician</a> that states "Actually, for Bayesians as much as any other statistician, parameters are fixed but unknown. It is the knowledge about these unknowns that Bayesians model as random." 
+
+On a different note, I still don't understand the doomsday argument discussed in the paper. 
diff --git a/_posts/2012-06-18-university-president-compensation-to-professor-compensation.html b/_posts/2012-06-18-university-president-compensation-to-professor-compensation.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..fad5599c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-06-18-university-president-compensation-to-professor-compensation.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: University president compensation to professor compensation
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: []
+
+layout: post
+---
+<a href="http://www.env-econ.net/2012/05/picture-of-the-day-outlier.html" target="_blank">Environmental economics has a post</a> showing that Ohio State University (OSU) is an outlier when you plot the average full professor compensation versus the university president's compensation. I'm not sure this seems like a reasonable plot to make perhaps instead plot total full professor compensation versus president compensation. The rationale here is that a larger university should on average pay its president more, but by using average professor compensation the size of the university is eliminated as an explanatory variable. OSU is a large university and therefore would be expected to pay its president quite a bit. With that being said, $2M seems like a lot for a college president. 
diff --git a/_posts/2012-06-23-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-06-23.html b/_posts/2012-06-23-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-06-23.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d762637c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-06-23-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-06-23.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-06-23
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>detecting pancreatic cancer with a piece of paper <a href="http://t.co/8TyPHCPM" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/8TyPHCPM</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/215086078791651329" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>the Department of Statistics at @<a href="http://twitter.com/IowaStateU" class="aktt_username">IowaStateU</a> is searching for a new chair <a href="http://t.co/D94Ewhjt" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/D94Ewhjt</a> apply by 9/21/2012 for full consideration <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/215545498818449408" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-06-24-scientist-shortage-is-a-myth.html b/_posts/2012-06-24-scientist-shortage-is-a-myth.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c4ea0a3d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-06-24-scientist-shortage-is-a-myth.html
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Scientist shortage is a myth
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Jobs
+- Science
+layout: post
+---
+This is the title of a <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2012/06/scientist_shortage_is_a_myth_.html" title="slate" target="_blank">slate article</a> by a medicinal chemist. He goes on to say:
+
+
+<blockquote>But there’s an even larger problem with the “more scientists, no matter what” view. In R&D, the rate-limiting step (to use a term from my chemical background) is usually not the number of people working on a problem. Not after a certain point, at any rate. Automation and miniaturization have been changing that, as in so many other industries. We can test more compounds and generate even bigger server-choking piles of data faster than ever before. The problem is figuring out what all of those numbers mean and what they’re telling us to do next. </blockquote>
+
+Right. So we don't need more "scientists", we need more mathematicians, statisticians, and computer scientists. 
+
diff --git a/_posts/2012-06-30-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-06-30-2.html b/_posts/2012-06-30-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-06-30-2.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..2e108ec6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-06-30-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-06-30-2.html
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-06-30
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23ISBA2012" class="aktt_hashtag">ISBA2012</a> Fruhwirth-Schnatter (<a href="http://t.co/WWrWIWYZ" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/WWrWIWYZ</a>): why do we need DP mixtures when we have finite mixtures? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217438423986880513" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>F-S: one of the most important papers in mixture modeling is Rousseau and Mengersen 2011 JRSS-B #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217439445828382721" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>what a ringtone! #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217441073960722432" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>F-S: in finite mixtures, choose the number of components using RJMCMC or marginal likelihood when there are duplicated components <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217443105144705026" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>use of technology when teaching math <a href="http://t.co/0KffDK8O" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/0KffDK8O</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217444039904071681" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Andriy Norets (<a href="http://t.co/tHblVNxo" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/tHblVNxo</a>) up next in Bayesian econometrics at #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217445959477628930" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>John Geweke talking about parallel computing environments in Bayesian econometrics #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217450135792271361" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>and here&#039;s his website (<a href="http://t.co/uUdkYEWw" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/uUdkYEWw</a>) #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217450567868493826" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Geweke: GPU parallel processing is here to stay! Perhaps will make a bigger impact than the MCMC revolution. #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217453213329276928" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Bayesian econometrics discussion by Robert Kohn (<a href="http://t.co/XCVnzYFx" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/XCVnzYFx</a>) #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217456728701272064" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>if only all rooms had wireless, then we could have more real time tweets about the talks #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217621141760643073" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>great run up to Hokoku Mausoleum this morning <a href="http://t.co/J3SZKQCs" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/J3SZKQCs</a> #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217756306038198272" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-06-30-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-06-30.html b/_posts/2012-06-30-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-06-30.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..de5a50c1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-06-30-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-06-30.html
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: future
+published: false
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-06-30
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>#<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23ISBA2012" class="aktt_hashtag">ISBA2012</a> Fruhwirth-Schnatter (<a href="http://t.co/WWrWIWYZ" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/WWrWIWYZ</a>): why do we need DP mixtures when we have finite mixtures? <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217438423986880513" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>F-S: one of the most important papers in mixture modeling is Rousseau and Mengersen 2011 JRSS-B #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217439445828382721" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>what a ringtone! #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217441073960722432" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>F-S: in finite mixtures, choose the number of components using RJMCMC or marginal likelihood when there are duplicated components <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217443105144705026" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>use of technology when teaching math <a href="http://t.co/0KffDK8O" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/0KffDK8O</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217444039904071681" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Andriy Norets (<a href="http://t.co/tHblVNxo" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/tHblVNxo</a>) up next in Bayesian econometrics at #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217445959477628930" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>John Geweke talking about parallel computing environments in Bayesian econometrics #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217450135792271361" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>and here&#039;s his website (<a href="http://t.co/uUdkYEWw" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/uUdkYEWw</a>) #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217450567868493826" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Geweke: GPU parallel processing is here to stay! Perhaps will make a bigger impact than the MCMC revolution. #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217453213329276928" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Bayesian econometrics discussion by Robert Kohn (<a href="http://t.co/XCVnzYFx" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/XCVnzYFx</a>) #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217456728701272064" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>if only all rooms had wireless, then we could have more real time tweets about the talks #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217621141760643073" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>great run up to Hokoku Mausoleum this morning <a href="http://t.co/J3SZKQCs" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/J3SZKQCs</a> #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23isba2012" class="aktt_hashtag">isba2012</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/217756306038198272" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-07-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-07-14.html b/_posts/2012-07-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-07-14.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..aefaf63e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-07-14-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-07-14.html
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-07-14
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>vastly different results for &quot;counting the dead&quot; due to infectious diseases and other causes <a href="http://t.co/LOedcyyd" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/LOedcyyd</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/223105417172099072" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>per 1000 healthy men screened for PSA: 1 death prev, but 1 blood clot, two heart attacks, and 40 impot/incon prod <a href="http://t.co/X9R52q4Y" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/X9R52q4Y</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/223106703586111488" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Amstat News suggestions for getting the most out of #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23jsm2012" class="aktt_hashtag">jsm2012</a> <a href="http://t.co/sp15nzWw" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/sp15nzWw</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/223109506639478784" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>whew...finally got scipy to install. used macports <a href="http://t.co/uigKIFuI" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/uigKIFuI</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/223543579061141504" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-07-21-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-07-21.html b/_posts/2012-07-21-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-07-21.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..bca2425a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-07-21-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-07-21.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-07-21
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>just signed the petition to form the BayesComp section of ISBA <a href="http://t.co/kX7cbPAZ" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/kX7cbPAZ</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/224845572656472064" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-08-04-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-08-04.html b/_posts/2012-08-04-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-08-04.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..b122f76f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-08-04-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-08-04.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-08-04
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>benchmarking BLAS implementations in R <a href="http://t.co/LFo9NPW1" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/LFo9NPW1</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/230687709767815169" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-08-18-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-08-18.html b/_posts/2012-08-18-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-08-18.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..db09b6b1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-08-18-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-08-18.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-08-18
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>@<a href="http://twitter.com/hadleywickham" class="aktt_username">hadleywickham</a> becoming a fan of the #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23testthat" class="aktt_hashtag">testthat</a> R package <a href="http://t.co/5AGCRfW8" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/5AGCRfW8</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/235505170535034881" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-09-01-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-09-01.html b/_posts/2012-09-01-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-09-01.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..cc492203
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-09-01-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-09-01.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-09-01
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>some thoughts on Bayesian analysis of Big Data <a href="http://t.co/OJwWDhqf" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/OJwWDhqf</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/241607070938435584" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-09-29-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-09-29.html b/_posts/2012-09-29-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-09-29.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..8ebf2bb2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-09-29-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-09-29.html
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-09-29
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>I&#039;ve just updated my professional profile on LinkedIn. Connect with me and view my profile. <a href="http://t.co/yB2QzW4s" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/yB2QzW4s</a> #<a href="http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23in" class="aktt_hashtag">in</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/250240554204536833" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-10-04-detecting-trends-in-lowhigh-abundance-species.html b/_posts/2012-10-04-detecting-trends-in-lowhigh-abundance-species.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..ff250d90
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-10-04-detecting-trends-in-lowhigh-abundance-species.html
@@ -0,0 +1,129 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Detecting trends in low/high abundance species
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  _edit_last: "2"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+  _aktt_hash_meta: "#tt"
+tags: 
+- R
+- Science
+layout: post
+---
+
+<p>From the inbox:</p>
+
+<blockquote>
+<p>What is the best answer to this question posed below as a comment on the technical report we are writing regarding our forest bird trend data?  If we have a bias in detecting trends for abundant or common species vs. uncommon or rare species, then I need to state this.  I suspect that it is easier to detect a trend for a common species because there are more observations to work with … hence, more difficult for a rare species?</p>
+
+<p>General statistical question – is detection of significant increase more likely than detection of significant decrease due in part to issues of sample size? Given that declining species probably are less common to begin with, wouldn’t it be more difficult to detect significant trends for those species?</p>
+</blockquote>
+
+<p>My response:</p>
+
+<p>It sounds like two different questions to me:</p>
+
+<ul>
+<li>Is it easier to detect an increase than to detect a decrease?</li>
+</ul>
+
+<p>No, since the problem is symmetric. Take the exact same dataset and reverse the years, if there is a significant increase in one direction, it will be a significant decrease in the opposite direction.</p>
+
+<ul>
+<li>Is it easier to detect trends in more abundant species?</li>
+</ul>
+
+<p>The answer is complicated. On one hand, an average of one individual increase per year is easier to detect in a rare species than in a common species. On the other hand, an average of a 10% increase in individuals per year is easier to detect in a common species than in a rare species. This is due to the signal-to-noise ratio which is high for the rare species in the former case but high for the common species in the latter. It is not clear to me that either of these are fair comparisons. I&#39;m sure we could determine the break even point which will depend on how rare is rare and how common is common as well as how many observations are taken for each mean (iirc the data point for each year is the mean of all surveys in that season).</p>
+
+<p>A reply:</p>
+
+<blockquote>
+<p>Does the abundance matter, or is it only the signal:noise ratio as it would seem.  i.e. greater ratio gives greater power regardless of abundance.</p>
+</blockquote>
+
+<p>My response:</p>
+
+<p>My answer was based on assuming a Poisson model for each survey with mean that changes from year to year. This mean would effectively be the abundance.Since the Poisson distribution has a variance that is equal to the mean, the noise (let&#39;s define it as the square root of the abundance) is directly related to the abundance. So yes, abundance matters through its effect on the noise.</p>
+
+<p>If abundance starts at 1 and increases 1 per year, then over 9 years the signal is 9 while the noise ranges from 1 to 3. In contrast, if abundance starts at 100 and increases 1 per year, then over 9 years the signal is 9 while the noise is ~10. The former has a signal-to-noise ratio about 3 while the latter is about 1. But this makes sense since a 1 individual increase is much more meaningful if you only started with 1 than if you started with 100. So to try and make the comparison reasonable, let abundance in the latter case increase 100 each year (so that the relative increase in the two scenarios is the same). Now over 9 years the signal is 900 while the noise ranges from 10 to 30. So the signal to noise ratio is ~30. The break even point here is if the high abundance scenario increases by 30 over the 9 years because then the signal would be 30 and the noise would be ~10 and thus the signal-to-noise about 3. </p>
+
+<p>Let&#39;s try a simulation and see what happens. My goal here is to create a situation where the pvalue associated with a linear increase in Poisson observations is approximately the same when you start at a Poisson mean of 1 and a Poisson mean of 100. </p>
+
+<p>Consider data over 10 years.</p>
+
+<pre><code class="r">n = 10
+x = 1:n
+</code></pre>
+
+<p>Simulate counts for a rare species and perform a regression on year (x). </p>
+
+<pre><code class="r">set.seed(1)
+lambda = 1:n
+y = rpois(n, lambda)
+summary(lm(y ~ x))
+</code></pre>
+
+<pre><code>## 
+## Call:
+## lm(formula = y ~ x)
+## 
+## Residuals:
+##    Min     1Q Median     3Q    Max 
+## -2.982 -1.136 -0.173  1.395  2.454 
+## 
+## Coefficients:
+##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(&gt;|t|)    
+## (Intercept)   -1.200      1.276   -0.94  0.37435    
+## x              1.436      0.206    6.99  0.00011 ***
+## ---
+## Signif. codes:  0 &#39;***&#39; 0.001 &#39;**&#39; 0.01 &#39;*&#39; 0.05 &#39;.&#39; 0.1 &#39; &#39; 1 
+## 
+## Residual standard error: 1.87 on 8 degrees of freedom
+## Multiple R-squared: 0.859,   Adjusted R-squared: 0.842 
+## F-statistic: 48.8 on 1 and 8 DF,  p-value: 0.000114
+</code></pre>
+
+<p>Simulate counts for a common species (using the same random number seed to make the comparison more direct) and perform a regression on year (x).</p>
+
+<pre><code class="r">set.seed(1)
+lambda = seq(100, 190, length = n)
+y = rpois(n, lambda)
+summary(lm(y ~ x))
+</code></pre>
+
+<pre><code>## 
+## Call:
+## lm(formula = y ~ x)
+## 
+## Residuals:
+##    Min     1Q Median     3Q    Max 
+## -20.29  -6.88   3.21   8.74   9.74 
+## 
+## Coefficients:
+##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(&gt;|t|)    
+## (Intercept)    96.20       7.65   12.58  1.5e-06 ***
+## x               9.02       1.23    7.32  8.2e-05 ***
+## ---
+## Signif. codes:  0 &#39;***&#39; 0.001 &#39;**&#39; 0.01 &#39;*&#39; 0.05 &#39;.&#39; 0.1 &#39; &#39; 1 
+## 
+## Residual standard error: 11.2 on 8 degrees of freedom
+## Multiple R-squared: 0.87,    Adjusted R-squared: 0.854 
+## F-statistic: 53.6 on 1 and 8 DF,  p-value: 8.24e-05
+</code></pre>
+
+<p>I got a number of 90 rather than 30 increase for the high abundance case, but this seems in the ballpark. </p>
+
+<p>The bottom line with this analysis would be that to detect a one individual increase per year when you started at 1 individual would be as hard as detecting a 3 to 9 individual increase per year when you started at 100 individuals.</p>
+
+<p>All of this was based on a single Poisson observation each year. You take multiple surveys per year and take their mean. Taking the mean is going to decrease the noise by a factor of the square root of the number of surveys you take each year. In addition, there is probably more noise than a Poisson model would give due to weather, time of day, time of year, etc. It is not clear how these would ultimately impact your ability to detect a trend.</p>
+
+<p>Another comment from the reply:</p>
+
+<blockquote>
+<p>I believe the length of the series on the x-axis also matters a great deal, so that more years gives you a lot more power nonwithstanding signal-to-noise.  But, that&#39;s a third question.</p>
+</blockquote>
+
+<p>Agreed. If the increase is consistent then having more years will give you more power.</p>
diff --git a/_posts/2012-10-06-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-10-06.html b/_posts/2012-10-06-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-10-06.html
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..1a8f824b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/_posts/2012-10-06-twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-10-06.html
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+--- 
+type: post
+status: publish
+published: true
+title: Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-10-06
+meta: 
+  aktt_tweeted: "1"
+  aktt_notify_twitter: "yes"
+tags: 
+- Tweets
+layout: post
+---
+<ul class="aktt_tweet_digest">
+	<li>This is the command I always forget when setting up a new git repository: git remote add origin <a href="mailto:git@github.com">git@github.com</a>:jarad/repositoryname.git  <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/253890860347977729" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+	<li>Let the passion follow you: <a href="http://t.co/zz4GJQIW" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/zz4GJQIW</a>  <a href="http://twitter.com/NiemiSTAT/statuses/253973027145003009" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
+</ul>