diff --git a/packages/publisher/src/calculate-versions.ts b/packages/publisher/src/calculate-versions.ts
index 000e4d6ad4..77cebe1af3 100644
--- a/packages/publisher/src/calculate-versions.ts
+++ b/packages/publisher/src/calculate-versions.ts
@@ -42,9 +42,9 @@ async function computeAndSaveChangedPackages(
 async function computeChangedPackages(allPackages: AllPackages, log: LoggerWithErrors): Promise<ChangedPackages> {
   log.info("# Computing changed packages...");
   const changedTypings = await mapDefinedAsync(allPackages.allTypings(), async (pkg) => {
-    const { version, needsPublish } = await fetchTypesPackageVersionInfo(pkg, /*publish*/ true, log);
-    if (needsPublish) {
-      log.info(`Need to publish: ${pkg.desc}@${version}`);
+    const { incipientVersion } = await fetchTypesPackageVersionInfo(pkg, log);
+    if (incipientVersion) {
+      log.info(`Need to publish: ${pkg.desc}@${incipientVersion}`);
       for (const { name } of pkg.packageJsonDependencies) {
         await pacote.manifest(name, { cache: defaultCacheDir }).catch((cause) => {
           throw cause.code === "E404"
@@ -57,8 +57,12 @@ async function computeChangedPackages(allPackages: AllPackages, log: LoggerWithE
       }
       const latestVersion = pkg.isLatest
         ? undefined
-        : (await fetchTypesPackageVersionInfo(allPackages.getLatest(pkg), /*publish*/ true)).version;
-      return { pkg, version, latestVersion };
+        : await fetchTypesPackageVersionInfo(allPackages.getLatest(pkg), log);
+      return {
+        pkg,
+        version: incipientVersion,
+        latestVersion: latestVersion?.incipientVersion || latestVersion?.publishedVersion,
+      };
     }
     return undefined;
   });
diff --git a/packages/retag/src/index.ts b/packages/retag/src/index.ts
index 453ec04db1..6f65274eea 100644
--- a/packages/retag/src/index.ts
+++ b/packages/retag/src/index.ts
@@ -62,14 +62,18 @@ async function tag(dry: boolean, nProcesses: number, name?: string) {
   if (name) {
     const pkg = await AllPackages.readSingle(name);
     const version = await getLatestTypingVersion(pkg);
-    await updateTypeScriptVersionTags(pkg, version, publishClient, consoleLogger.info, dry);
-    await updateLatestTag(pkg.fullNpmName, version, publishClient, consoleLogger.info, dry);
+    if (version) {
+      await updateTypeScriptVersionTags(pkg, version, publishClient, consoleLogger.info, dry);
+      await updateLatestTag(pkg.fullNpmName, version, publishClient, consoleLogger.info, dry);
+    }
   } else {
     await nAtATime(10, await AllPackages.readLatestTypings(), async (pkg) => {
       // Only update tags for the latest version of the package.
       const version = await getLatestTypingVersion(pkg);
-      await updateTypeScriptVersionTags(pkg, version, publishClient, consoleLogger.info, dry);
-      await updateLatestTag(pkg.fullNpmName, version, publishClient, consoleLogger.info, dry);
+      if (version) {
+        await updateTypeScriptVersionTags(pkg, version, publishClient, consoleLogger.info, dry);
+        await updateLatestTag(pkg.fullNpmName, version, publishClient, consoleLogger.info, dry);
+      }
     });
   }
   // Don't tag notNeeded packages
@@ -109,15 +113,20 @@ export async function updateLatestTag(
   }
 }
 
-export async function getLatestTypingVersion(pkg: TypingsData): Promise<string> {
-  return (await fetchTypesPackageVersionInfo(pkg, /*publish*/ false)).version;
+export async function getLatestTypingVersion(pkg: TypingsData): Promise<string | undefined> {
+  return (await fetchTypesPackageVersionInfo(pkg)).publishedVersion;
 }
 
+/**
+ * Used for two purposes: to determine whether a @types package has changed since it was last published, and to get a package's version in the npm registry.
+ * We ignore whether the cached metadata is fresh or stale: We always revalidate if the content hashes differ (fresh or not) and never revalidate if they match (stale or not).
+ * Because the decider is the content hash, this isn't applicable to other npm packages.
+ * Target JS packages and not-needed stubs don't have content hashes.
+ */
 export async function fetchTypesPackageVersionInfo(
   pkg: TypingsData,
-  canPublish: boolean,
   log?: LoggerWithErrors
-): Promise<{ version: string; needsPublish: boolean }> {
+): Promise<{ publishedVersion?: string; incipientVersion?: string }> {
   const spec = `${pkg.fullNpmName}@~${pkg.major}.${pkg.minor}`;
   let info = await pacote
     .manifest(spec, { cache: defaultCacheDir, fullMetadata: true, preferOffline: true })
@@ -125,7 +134,7 @@ export async function fetchTypesPackageVersionInfo(
       if (cause.code !== "E404" && cause.code !== "ETARGET") throw cause;
     });
   if (!info) {
-    return { version: `${pkg.major}.${pkg.minor}.0`, needsPublish: true };
+    return { incipientVersion: `${pkg.major}.${pkg.minor}.0` };
   }
   if (info._cached && info.typesPublisherContentHash !== pkg.contentHash) {
     if (log) {
@@ -141,6 +150,10 @@ export async function fetchTypesPackageVersionInfo(
       `Package ${pkg.name} has been deprecated, so we shouldn't have parsed it. Was it re-added?`
     );
   }
-  const needsPublish = canPublish && pkg.contentHash !== info.typesPublisherContentHash;
-  return { version: needsPublish ? semver.inc(info.version, "patch")! : info.version, needsPublish };
+  return {
+    publishedVersion: info.version,
+    ...(((pkg.contentHash === info.typesPublisherContentHash) as {}) || {
+      incipientVersion: semver.inc(info.version, "patch")!,
+    }),
+  };
 }
diff --git a/packages/retag/test/index.test.ts b/packages/retag/test/index.test.ts
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..3736f35873
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/retag/test/index.test.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+import * as util from "util";
+import { fetchTypesPackageVersionInfo } from "../src/";
+
+jest.mock("pacote", () => ({
+  async manifest(spec: string) {
+    switch (spec) {
+      case "@types/already-published@~1.2": // An already-published @types package.
+        return { version: "1.2.3", typesPublisherContentHash: "already-published-content-hash" };
+      case "@types/first-publish@~1.2": // A new, not-yet-published @types package.
+        // eslint-disable-next-line no-throw-literal
+        throw { code: "E404" };
+    }
+    throw new Error(`Unexpected npm registry fetch: ${util.inspect(spec)}`);
+  },
+}));
+
+const unchangedTypesPackage = {
+  fullNpmName: "@types/already-published",
+  major: 1,
+  minor: 2,
+  contentHash: "already-published-content-hash",
+};
+const changedTypesPackage = {
+  fullNpmName: "@types/already-published",
+  major: 1,
+  minor: 2,
+  contentHash: "changed-content-hash",
+};
+const firstPublishTypesPackage = {
+  fullNpmName: "@types/first-publish",
+  major: 1,
+  minor: 2,
+};
+
+test("Increments already-published patch version", () => {
+  return expect(fetchTypesPackageVersionInfo(changedTypesPackage as never)).resolves.toEqual({
+    publishedVersion: "1.2.3",
+    incipientVersion: "1.2.4",
+  });
+});
+
+test("Doesn't increment unchanged @types package version", () => {
+  return expect(fetchTypesPackageVersionInfo(unchangedTypesPackage as never)).resolves.toEqual({
+    publishedVersion: "1.2.3",
+  });
+});
+
+test("First-publish version", () => {
+  return expect(fetchTypesPackageVersionInfo(firstPublishTypesPackage as never)).resolves.toEqual({
+    incipientVersion: "1.2.0",
+  });
+});