From a91b32c81142e5a69a87a72e59f3cbd5525d4c53 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Piet Stam Date: Sun, 21 Jul 2019 21:49:35 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] Added new section New section about betting results --- NL_eredivisie_2014_2019.Rmd | 25 ++++++++++++++++++++++++- NL_eredivisie_2014_2019.html | 31 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++---- 2 files changed, 51 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) diff --git a/NL_eredivisie_2014_2019.Rmd b/NL_eredivisie_2014_2019.Rmd index cb2743d..0a4ac28 100644 --- a/NL_eredivisie_2014_2019.Rmd +++ b/NL_eredivisie_2014_2019.Rmd @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ --- title: "Bayesian estimation of a Poisson model for Dutch football matches odds" author: "Piet Stam" -date: "July 20th, 2019" +date: "July 21st, 2019" output: html_document --- @@ -34,6 +34,7 @@ knitr::knit_hooks$set(purl = knitr::hook_purl) - [Predicting the future](#prediction) - [Betting on the match outcome](#matchbetting) - [Betting on the correct score](#scorebetting) + - [Betting results](#bettingresults) 5. [Appendix](#appendix) - [Who do you call?](#contact) @@ -513,6 +514,28 @@ The most likely result is 1 - 1 with a predicted payout of 9.70, which can be co [Return to table of contents](#index) +## Betting results + +As the English say: "put your money where your mouth is". So, at the time, I placed a 1 euro bet on three potential outcomes of the AZ-PSV match: + +* a 0-0 equalizer +* a 1-1 equalizer +* an AZ win over PSV + +I uploaded my official betting ticket to GitHub as proof: + +![](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/8238853/61595945-b8fa5580-abfd-11e9-83ea-4933f6bcd9ee.PNG) + +As the true outcome of this match was a 1-0 victory of AZ over PSV, the results of my betting adventure are a loss, a loss and a win, respectively. Here you can find the official ticket with my betting results (in reverse order): + +![](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/8238853/61595949-c283bd80-abfd-11e9-8f93-8efb7131be60.PNG) + +So, with a 3 euro stake I earned 4.15 euro, which means a profit margin of 1.15 / 3 = 38%. + +For those interested, my bets were placed on [the Dutch Lottery website](https://toto.nederlandseloterij.nl/) (disclosure: I do *not* own shares in that company) and I posted about my one-off betting experience [on LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/de-bal-rond-piet-stam/) (in Dutch) at the time. + +[Return to table of contents](#index) + # Appendix ## Who do you call? diff --git a/NL_eredivisie_2014_2019.html b/NL_eredivisie_2014_2019.html index 38dff0d..c5e975c 100644 --- a/NL_eredivisie_2014_2019.html +++ b/NL_eredivisie_2014_2019.html @@ -180,7 +180,7 @@

Bayesian estimation of a Poisson model for Dutch football matches odds

Piet Stam

-

July 20th, 2019

+

July 21st, 2019

@@ -213,6 +213,7 @@

Table of contents

  • Predicting the future
  • Betting on the match outcome
  • Betting on the correct score
    • +
  • Betting results
  • Appendix