Skip to content
New issue

Have a question about this project? Sign up for a free GitHub account to open an issue and contact its maintainers and the community.

By clicking “Sign up for GitHub”, you agree to our terms of service and privacy statement. We’ll occasionally send you account related emails.

Already on GitHub? Sign in to your account

Implement overdispersed SIR and SEIR models #2451

Merged
merged 23 commits into from
Apr 29, 2020
Merged

Implement overdispersed SIR and SEIR models #2451

merged 23 commits into from
Apr 29, 2020

Conversation

fritzo
Copy link
Member

@fritzo fritzo commented Apr 28, 2020

Addresses #2426

This adds two new compartmental models with overdispersed infection distributions to model superspreading individuals.

Tested

  • added unit tests
  • added to examples/contrib/epidemiology/sir.py
  • sanity checked locally

pyro/contrib/epidemiology/seir.py Outdated Show resolved Hide resolved
distribution acts as an overdispersed Binomial distribution, adapting the
more standard NegativeBinomial distribution that acts as an overdispersed
Poisson distribution [1,2] to the setting of finite populations. To
preserve Markov structure, we follow [2] and assume all infections by a
Copy link
Collaborator

Choose a reason for hiding this comment

The reason will be displayed to describe this comment to others. Learn more.

To preserve Markov structure, we follow [2] and assume all infections by a single individual occur on the single time step where that individual makes an I -> R transition.

can you please explain in more detail?

Copy link
Member Author

Choose a reason for hiding this comment

The reason will be displayed to describe this comment to others. Learn more.

done

pyro/contrib/epidemiology/sir.py Show resolved Hide resolved
@fritzo fritzo changed the base branch from infection-dist to dev April 28, 2020 23:26
@fritzo fritzo dismissed martinjankowiak’s stale review April 28, 2020 23:26

The base branch was changed.

@fritzo fritzo removed the Blocked label Apr 28, 2020
@fritzo
Copy link
Member Author

fritzo commented Apr 29, 2020

Thanks for reviewing!

@eb8680 eb8680 merged commit dcba941 into dev Apr 29, 2020
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment
Projects
None yet
Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

3 participants