From 93822ed786379c1f878faeecf4c59b326b8a83fd Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vyacheslav Matyukhin Date: Tue, 28 Jan 2025 15:18:16 -0300 Subject: [PATCH 01/19] copy code from metaforecast repo --- apps/metaforecast/.dockerignore | 4 + apps/metaforecast/.eslintrc | 6 + apps/metaforecast/.github/workflows/ci.yaml | 77 + apps/metaforecast/.gitignore | 21 + apps/metaforecast/.vscode/settings.json | 3 + apps/metaforecast/LICENSE.md | 7 + apps/metaforecast/README.md | 121 + apps/metaforecast/codegen.yml | 32 + apps/metaforecast/docs/coding-style.md | 29 + apps/metaforecast/docs/configuration.md | 41 + apps/metaforecast/docs/graphql.md | 53 + apps/metaforecast/docs/infra.md | 45 + apps/metaforecast/docs/roadmap.md | 92 + apps/metaforecast/env.example | 17 + apps/metaforecast/graphql.config.yaml | 1 + .../input/givewellopenphil-questions.json | 3751 +++++++++++++++++ .../input/givewellopenphil-urls.txt | 38 + .../metaforecast-algolia-configuration.json | 61 + 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apps/metaforecast/src/web/urql.ts create mode 100644 apps/metaforecast/src/web/utils.ts create mode 100644 apps/metaforecast/src/web/worker/searchWithElastic.ts create mode 100644 apps/metaforecast/src/web/worker/uploadToImgur.ts create mode 100644 apps/metaforecast/tailwind.config.js create mode 100644 apps/metaforecast/tf/.gitignore create mode 100644 apps/metaforecast/tf/main.tf create mode 100644 apps/metaforecast/tf/outputs.tf create mode 100644 apps/metaforecast/tf/variables.tf create mode 100644 apps/metaforecast/tsconfig.json diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/.dockerignore b/apps/metaforecast/.dockerignore new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..639d050313 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/.dockerignore @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +/node_modules +/.git +/.github +/ops diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/.eslintrc b/apps/metaforecast/.eslintrc new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..8def063c68 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/.eslintrc @@ -0,0 +1,6 @@ +{ + "extends": ["next", "prettier"], + "rules": { + "next/no-document-import-in-page": "off" + } +} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/.github/workflows/ci.yaml b/apps/metaforecast/.github/workflows/ci.yaml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..733e0d692f --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/.github/workflows/ci.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,77 @@ +name: Create and publish a Docker image + +# Configures this workflow to run every time a change is pushed to the branch called `release`. +on: + push: + branches: + - master + +# Defines two custom environment variables for the workflow. These are used for the Container registry domain, and a name for the Docker image that this workflow builds. +env: + REGISTRY: ghcr.io + IMAGE_NAME: ${{ github.repository }} + +# There is a single job in this workflow. It's configured to run on the latest available version of Ubuntu. +jobs: + build-and-push-image: + runs-on: ubuntu-latest + # Sets the permissions granted to the `GITHUB_TOKEN` for the actions in this job. + permissions: + contents: write + packages: write + attestations: write + id-token: write + + steps: + - name: Checkout + uses: actions/checkout@v4 + + - name: Log in to registry + uses: docker/login-action@v3 + with: + registry: ${{ env.REGISTRY }} + username: ${{ github.actor }} + password: ${{ secrets.GITHUB_TOKEN }} + # This step uses [docker/metadata-action](https://github.com/docker/metadata-action#about) to extract tags and labels that will be applied to the specified image. The `id` "meta" allows the output of this step to be referenced in a subsequent step. The `images` value provides the base name for the tags and labels. + - name: Extract metadata (tags, labels) for Docker + id: meta + uses: docker/metadata-action@9ec57ed1fcdbf14dcef7dfbe97b2010124a938b7 + with: + images: ${{ env.REGISTRY }}/${{ env.IMAGE_NAME }} + tags: | + type=sha,format=long + type=ref,event=branch + + - name: Set up Docker Buildx + uses: docker/setup-buildx-action@v3 + + - name: Build and push Docker image + id: push + uses: docker/build-push-action@v5 + with: + context: . + file: ops/Dockerfile + push: true + tags: ${{ steps.meta.outputs.tags }} + labels: ${{ steps.meta.outputs.labels }} + cache-from: type=gha + cache-to: type=gha,mode=max + + # This step generates an artifact attestation for the image, which is an unforgeable statement about where and how it was built. + # It increases supply chain security for people who consume the image. + # For more information, see https://docs.github.com/en/actions/security-for-github-actions/using-artifact-attestations/using-artifact-attestations-to-establish-provenance-for-builds + - name: Generate artifact attestation + uses: actions/attest-build-provenance@v1 + with: + subject-name: ${{ env.REGISTRY }}/${{ env.IMAGE_NAME}} + subject-digest: ${{ steps.push.outputs.digest }} + push-to-registry: true + + - name: Commit new image tag + run: | + sed -i "s/^ tag:.*/ tag: sha-${{ fromJSON(steps.meta.outputs.json).labels['org.opencontainers.image.revision'] }}/" ./ops/chart/values.yaml + git config --global user.email "ops@quantifieduncertainty.org" + git config --global user.name "GitHub Actions" + git add . + git commit -m 'Update image tag' + git push origin ${{ github.ref_name }} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/.gitignore b/apps/metaforecast/.gitignore new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..09f05cf42f --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/.gitignore @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +# Security +**/betfaircertificates/ +**/secrets.json + +# Build artifacts +*.swp + +# next.js +/.next/ + +# misc +.DS_Store +*.pem + +# debug +npm-debug.log* + +# vercel +.vercel + +/.env* diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/.vscode/settings.json b/apps/metaforecast/.vscode/settings.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..25fa6215fd --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/.vscode/settings.json @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +{ + "typescript.tsdk": "node_modules/typescript/lib" +} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/LICENSE.md b/apps/metaforecast/LICENSE.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..9eacc8d76e --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/LICENSE.md @@ -0,0 +1,7 @@ +Copyright 2023 Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute. + +Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions: + +The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all copies or substantial portions of the Software. + +THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE. diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/README.md b/apps/metaforecast/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..6a315e51a1 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +## Move to Squiggle monorepo + +**This repository is deprecated.** + +To make things easier to maintain by [QURI](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/) team, we moved Metaforecast source code to [Squiggle monorepo](https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/squiggle). Refer to [apps/metaforecast](https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/squiggle/tree/main/apps/metaforecast) for the latest source code. + +## What this is + +[Metaforecast](https://metaforecast.org) is a search engine for probabilities from various prediction markes and forecasting platforms. Try searching "Trump", "China" or "Semiconductors". + +This repository includes the source code for both the website and the library that fetches forecasts needed to replace them. We also aim to provide tooling to integrate metaforecast with other services. + +[![](./public/screenshot-frontpage.png)](https://metaforecast.org) + +## How to run + +### 1. Download this repository + +``` +$ git clone https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast +$ cd metaforecast +$ pnpm install +``` + +### 2. Set up a database and environment variables + +You'll need a PostgreSQL instance, either local (see https://www.postgresql.org/download/) or in the cloud (for example, you can spin one up on https://www.digitalocean.com/products/managed-databases-postgresql or https://supabase.com/). + +Environment can be set up with an `.env` file. You'll need to configure at least `DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES`. + +See [./docs/configuration.md](./docs/configuration.md) for details. + +### 3. Actually run + +After installing and building (`pnpm run build`) the application, `pnpm run cli` starts a local CLI which presents the user with choices. If you would like to skip that step, use the option name instead, e.g., `pnpm run cli wildeford`. + +![](./public/screenshot-cli.png) + +`npm run next-dev` starts a Next.js dev server with the website on `http://localhost:3000`. + +So overall this would look like + +``` +$ git clone https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast +$ cd metaforecast +$ pnpm install +$ pnpm run build +$ pnpm run cli +$ pnpm run next-dev +``` + +### 4. Example: download the metaforecasts database + +``` +$ git clone https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast +$ cd metaforecast +$ pnpm install +$ node src/backend/manual/manualDownload.js +``` + +## Integrations + +Metaforecast has been integrated into: + +- Twitter, using our [@metaforecast](https://twitter.com/metaforecast) bot +- [Global Guessing](https://globalguessing.com/russia-ukraine-forecasts/), which integrates our dashboards +- [Fletcher](https://fletcher.fun/), a popular Discord bot. You can invoke metaforecast with `!metaforecast search-term` +- [Elicit](https://elicit.org/), which uses GPT-3 to deliver vastly superior semantic search (as opposed to fuzzy word matching). If you have access to the Elicit IDE, you can use the action "Search Metaforecast database. This is not being updated regularly. + +You can use our [GraphQL API](https://metaforecast.org/api/graphql) to build your own integration. + +We are also open to integrating our Elasticsearch instance with other trusted services (in addition to Fletcher.) + +In general, if you want to integrate metaforecast into your service, we want to hear from you. + +## Code layout + +- frontend code is in [src/pages/](./src/pages/), [src/web/](./src/web/) and in a few other places which are required by Next.js (e.g. root-level configs in postcss.config.js and tailwind.config.js) +- various backend code is in [src/backend/](./src/backend/) +- fetching libraries for various platforms is in [src/backend/platforms/](./src/backend/platforms/) +- rudimentary documentation is in [docs/](./docs) + +## What are "stars" and how are they computed + +Star ratings—e.g. ★★★☆☆—are an indicator of the quality of an aggregate forecast for a question. These ratings currently try to reflect my own best judgment and the best judgment of forecasting experts I've asked, based on our collective experience forecasting on these platforms. Thus, stars have a strong subjective component which could be formalized and refined in the future. You can see the code used to decide how many stars a forecast should get by looking at the function `calculateStars()` in the files for every platform [here](./src/backend/platforms). + +With regards the quality, I am most uncertain about Smarkets, Hypermind, Ladbrokes and WilliamHill, as I haven't used them as much. Also note that, whatever other redeeming features they might have, prediction markets rarely go above 95% or below 5%. + +## Tech stack + +Overall, the services which we use are: + +- Elasticsearch for search +- Vercel for website deployment +- Heroku for background jobs, e.g. fetching new forecasts +- Postgres on DigitalOcean for database + +## Various notes + +- This repository is released under the [MIT license](https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT). See `LICENSE.md` +- Commits follow [conventional commits](https://www.conventionalcommits.org/en/v1.0.0/#summary) +- For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters out questions with <10 predictions. +- The database is updated once a day, at 3:00 AM UTC, with the command `ts-node -T src/backend/flow/doEverythingForScheduler.ts`. The frontpage is updated after that, at 6:00 AM UTC with the command `ts-node -T src/backend/cli/index.ts frontpage`. It's possible that either of these two operations makes the webpage briefly go down. + +## To do + +- [x] Update Metaculus and Manifold Markets fetchers +- [x] Add markets from [Insight Prediction](https://insightprediction.com/). +- [ ] Update broken fetchers: + - [x] For Good Judgment + - [ ] Kalshi: Requires a US person to create an account to access their v2 api. +- [ ] Use to update stars calculation for Manifold. +- [ ] Add a few more snippets, with fetching individual questions, questions with histories, questions added within the last 24h to the /contrib folder (good first issue) +- [ ] Refactor code so that users can capture and push the question history chart to imgur (good first issue) +- [ ] Upgrade to [React 18](https://reactjs.org/blog/2022/03/08/react-18-upgrade-guide.html). This will require dealing with the workaround we used for [this issue](https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/36019#issuecomment-1103266481) +- [ ] Add database of resolutions +- [ ] Allow users to embed predictions in the EA Forum/LessWrong (in progress) +- [ ] Find a long-term mantainer for this project +- [ ] Allow users to record their own predictions +- [ ] Release snapshots (I think @niplav is working on this) +- [ ] ... diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/codegen.yml b/apps/metaforecast/codegen.yml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..a6d62e55ad --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/codegen.yml @@ -0,0 +1,32 @@ +schema: src/graphql/build-schema.js +documents: + - "src/**/*.graphql" + +# This should be updated to match your client files +# documents: 'client/**/!(*.d).{ts,tsx}' +generates: + # This will take your schema and print an SDL schema. + schema.graphql: + plugins: + - schema-ast + + src/graphql/types.generated.ts: + plugins: + - typescript + + src/graphql/introspection.json: + plugins: + - introspection: + minify: true + + src/: + preset: near-operation-file + presetConfig: + extension: .generated.tsx + baseTypesPath: graphql/types.generated.ts + plugins: + - typescript-operations: + strictScalars: true + scalars: + Date: number + - typed-document-node diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/docs/coding-style.md b/apps/metaforecast/docs/coding-style.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..60003f1884 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/docs/coding-style.md @@ -0,0 +1,29 @@ +# TypeScript + +- avoid `any`; get rid of any existing `any` whenever you can so that we can enable `"strict": true` later on in `tsconfig.json` +- define custom types for common data structures + - don't worry about `interface` vs `type`, [both are fine](https://www.typescriptlang.org/docs/handbook/2/everyday-types.html#differences-between-type-aliases-and-interfaces) + +## Typescript and React/Next + +- use `React.FC` type for React components, e.g. `const MyComponent: React.FC = ({ ... }) => { ... };` +- use `NextPage` for typing stuff in `src/pages/` +- use generic versions of `GetServerSideProps` and `GetStaticProps` + +# React + +- create one file per one component (tiny helper components in the same file are fine) +- name file identically to the component it describes (e.g. `const DisplayQuestions: React.FC = ...` in `DisplayQuestions.ts`) +- use named export instead of default export for all React components + - it's better for refactoring + - and it plays well with `React.FC` typing + +# Styles + +- use [Tailwind](https://tailwindcss.com/) +- avoid positioning styles in components, position elements from the outside (e.g. with [space-\*](https://tailwindcss.com/docs/space) or grid/flexbox) + +# General notes + +- use `const` instead of `let` whenever possible +- set up [prettier](https://prettier.io/) to format code on save diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/docs/configuration.md b/apps/metaforecast/docs/configuration.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..664a887b8b --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/docs/configuration.md @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +# Configuration + +All configuration is done through environment variables. + +Not all of these are necessary to run the code. The most important ones are: + +- `DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES` pointing to the working Postgres database + +Environment for production deployments is configured through Terraform, see [infra.md](./infra.md) for details. + +For local development you can write `.env` file by hand or import it from Heroku with `heroku config -s -a metaforecast-backend` and then modify accordingly. + +There's also a template configuration file in `../env.example`. + +## Database endpoints + +- `DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES`, of the form `postgres://username:password@domain.com:port/configvars`. (Disregard `DIGITALOCEAN_` prefix, you can use any endpoint you like). + +Elasticsearch: + +- `ELASTIC_HOST` (e.g. `https://metaforecast-elastic.k8s.quantifieduncertainty.org`) +- `ELASTIC_INDEX` (e.g. `metaforecast`) +- `ELASTIC_USER` (usually `elastic`) +- `ELASTIC_PASSWORD` + +## Platform cookies and keys + +Most of these are just session cookies, necessary to query INFER (previously CSET Foretell), Good Judgment Open and Hypermind (Hypermind is now deprecated). You can get these cookies by creating an account in said platforms and then making and inspecting a request (e.g., by making a prediction, or browsing questions). + +Note that not all of these cookies are needed to use all parts of the source code. For instance, to download Polymarket data, one could just interface with the Polymarket code. In particular, the code in this repository contains code to connect with the postgres database using read permissions, which are freely available. + +- `GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE` +- `INFER_COOKIE` +- `HYPERMINDCOOKIE` +- `GOOGLE_API_KEY`, necessary to fetch Peter Wildeford's predictions. +- `SECRET_BETFAIR_ENDPOINT` + +## Configuration flags + +- `POSTGRES_NO_SSL`, can be set to a non-empty value to disable SSL; can be useful for local development. +- `DEBUG_MODE`, usually `off`, which controls log verbosity. diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/docs/graphql.md b/apps/metaforecast/docs/graphql.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..e6a142e093 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/docs/graphql.md @@ -0,0 +1,53 @@ +Metaforecast website is implemented on top of GraphQL API. + +Tech stack: + +- [Pothos](https://pothos-graphql.dev/) on the backend for implementing our graphql server +- [urql](https://formidable.com/open-source/urql/) on the frontend +- [GraphQL Code Generator](https://www.graphql-code-generator.com/) for schema generation, queries generation and schema introspection + +Rationale for this stack can be found on [#32](https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast/issues/32) and [#21](https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast/issues/32) in comments. + +# Code layout + +List of all files used for graphql: + +- [schema.graphql](../schema.graphql), GraphQL schema generated by graphql-code-generator. +- [codegen.yml](../codegen.yml), graphql-code-generator [config](https://www.graphql-code-generator.com/docs/config-reference/codegen-config) +- [graphql.config.yaml](../graphql.config.yaml), [GraphQL Config](https://www.graphql-config.com/) for better VS Code integration ([VS Code GraphQL extension](https://marketplace.visualstudio.com/items?itemName=GraphQL.vscode-graphql) type-checks graphql files thanks to it) +- [src/pages/api/graphql.ts](../src/pages/api/graphql.ts) implements the GraphQL HTTP endpoint and GraphQL playground +- [src/web/urql.ts](../src/web/urql.ts) contains some helper functions. + +[src/graphql/](../src/graphql) dir contains GraphQL server code. + +`*.graphql` files in `src/web/**` contain GraphQL fragments, queries and mutations which are used on the frontend. + +`graphql-code-generator` converts those into `*.generated.ts` files which can be imported from the React components. + +# Notes on caching + +`urql` has both [document caching](https://formidable.com/open-source/urql/docs/basics/document-caching/) and [normalized caching](https://formidable.com/open-source/urql/docs/graphcache/normalized-caching/) (which we don't use yet). + +Unfortunately, it's useful only on a page level: since we like server-side rendering, we still have to hit `getServerSideProps` on navigation, even if we have data in cache. + +There are some possible workaround for this to make client-side navigation faster, but none of them are trivial to implement; relevant Next.js discussion to follow: https://github.com/vercel/next.js/discussions/19611 + +# Recipes + +**I want to check out what Metaforecast's GraphQL API is capable of** + +Go to [/api/graphql](https://metaforecast.org/api/graphql) and do some queries by hand. Note the "Docs" link in the top right corner. + +**I want to add a new query/mutation to our schema** + +Read the [Pothos](https://pothos-graphql.dev/) docs to learn how to implement new objects and fields. Add the new code somewhere in `src/graphql/schema/`. + +**I want to display a new piece of data on the metaforecast website** + +- add a query in a nearest `queries.graphql` file (if there isn't one, create it) +- run `gql-gen` (or keep it running with `gql-gen -w`) to get a `graphql.generated.ts` file +- use [useQuery](https://formidable.com/open-source/urql/docs/basics/react-preact/#queries) with your new `MyQueryDocument` which you can import from the `graphql.generated.ts` file + +If you need SSR, you'll also need to do **the same** query with **the same variables** from your page's `getServerSideProps` function. Check out any existing page which calls `ssrUrql`. + +(You might not need to use `useQuery` in your components if you're doing SSR and the page content is not dynamic, just pass the data from `getServerSideProps` in `props` and avoid GraphQL on the client side). diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/docs/infra.md b/apps/metaforecast/docs/infra.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..f2a2e12a63 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/docs/infra.md @@ -0,0 +1,45 @@ +# Terraform + +Infra is managed by [Terraform](https://www.terraform.io/) (WIP, not everything is migrated yet). + +Managed with Terraform: + +- Vercel +- Digital Ocean (database) +- Heroku + +TODO: + +- Elasticsearch +- Twitter bot +- DNS? + +## Recipes + +### Set up a new dev repo for managing prod + +1. Install [Terraform CLI](https://www.terraform.io/downloads) +2. `cd tf` +3. `terraform init` +4. Get a current version of prod tfvars configuration + - Source is in `metaforecast-notes-and-secrets` secret repo, `tf/prod.auto.tfvars` for now (will move to Terraform Cloud later) + - Store it in `tf/prod.auto.tfvars` (or somewhere else, there are [other ways](https://www.terraform.io/language/values/variables#assigning-values-to-root-module-variables)) +5. Get a current version of terraform state + - Source is in `metaforecast-notes-and-secrets` secret repo for now (will move to Terraform Cloud or [pg backend](https://www.terraform.io/language/settings/backends/pg) later) + - Store it in `tf/terraform.tfstate` + +Now everything is set up. + +Check with `terraform plan`; it should output `"No changes. Your infrastructure matches the configuration."`. + +### Edit environment variables in prod + +1. Update terraform state and vars from `metaforecast-notes-and-secrets` +2. Modify `tf/prod.auto.tfvars` as needed +3. Run `terraform apply` + - Check if proposed actions list is appropriate + - Enter `yes` + - Terraform will push the new configuration to Heroku and Vercel. +4. Push terraform state and vars back to `metaforecast-notes-and-secrets` + +(After we move to Terraform Cloud (1) and (4) won't be needed.) diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/docs/roadmap.md b/apps/metaforecast/docs/roadmap.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..ee9c2d4035 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/docs/roadmap.md @@ -0,0 +1,92 @@ +Metaforecast: Roadmap +===================== + +Note: Applies to both frontend and backend. Pull requests welcome. + +# Stabilization + +## Stabilize the api. +Importance: 5/5 + +Right now, the api is hosted in an ubuntu server, together with other services. Move it to it's own separate server, something like api.metaforecast.org, and document it. + +## Better documentation +Importance: 5/5 + +Right now, neither the API nor some of the functionality is that well documented. + +## Unify forecasting services +Importance: ?/5 + +Right now, I'm using various services to host various parts of metaforecast: +- Heroku 1: To host the service which updates the forecasts once a day +- Heroku 2: Host the metaforecast twitter bot +- Digital Ocean 1: Host the database +- Mongo: Host the legacy database +- Digital Ocean 2: Host the api server + +This could all be simplified. But this would require making an executive decision as to whether to go for scalability and greater expense, or to go for a cheaper but less scalable digitalocean server + +I think that a simplication would be to: + +1. Use one server for both external API and fetching probabilities each day +2. Use a separate Heroku server for the twitter bot. + +If I was doing this on my own, I would deploy 1. into a Njal.la server using Alpine Linux. However, more convenient options would be: + +- A Digital Ocean droplet using Ubuntu/Debian +- A Heroku instance. + +The biggest difference between Digital Ocean and Heroku is that I'm using [pm2](https://pm2.keymetrics.io/) on Digital Ocean, whereas Heroku has its own load balancer, logs, etc. + +## General code review +Importance: 3/5, but good first issue. Would also allow you to incorporate + +## Take over updating for INFER and Good Judgment Open +Right now, INFER and Good Judgment Open require me spending 1 min/week to update the predictions, but I find it inordinately annoying. This isn't automated, because I need to get the cookies manually. Automating this or taking over this would easily be worth $50/month to me. + +## Fix analytics +Importance: 3/5 + +After some build changes, our analytics (plausible.io) are not really working. Figure out how to fix this. + +# Improvements + +## Tools for forecasters +Importance: 3/5 for each tool, but 5/5 overall + +Create reminders, or alerts for question movements that people can sign up to. Create ways to more efficiently update predictions, or include google news predictions automatically. Create a way for forecasters to draw their own predictions. + +## Display forecast history +Importance: 5/5. +Create graphs + +This might involve creating a page for each prediction. + +## Allow users to save and star predictions +Importance: 2/5 + +Would be nice, but would be better do do some maintenance first. + +## Bring [predict, resolve and tally](https://github.com/NunoSempere/PredictResolveTally) functionality to metaforecast +Importance: 3/5 + +Improve the metaforecast twitter bot + +## Get news media to use more forecasting +Importance: 3/5, bad fit + +## Extract consensus forecast from similar questions. +Would require some thinking + +## Collaborate with Clay Graubard +He's been doing some high-quality quantitative journalism around Ukraine. Tools and improvements that he would find valuable are probably a good idea, particularly if they are reusable. + +## Improve dashboards +Importance: 3/5 + +Right now, dashboards exist in rudimentary form, but they could use some improvement. A particular request was to allow the embeddable dashboards to show/not show the title and description. The description could also be written in markdown but rendered into html. The hash which represents it should probably be of the whole thing (title, description, etc.), not just of the items. Dashboards could also be made searchable. + +## Add additional tooling / things you would find cool +I'm very up for paying for 20% of your time to work on features of your choice, or which you find particularly motivating to work on. You could also brainstorm stuff which would seem to be particularly valuable. + diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/env.example b/apps/metaforecast/env.example new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..9e35bb3e34 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/env.example @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +#### You can copy this file to `.env` and modify accordingly. +#### Documentation can be found in `docs/configuration.md`. + +# ELASTIC_HOST=https://metaforecast-elastic.k8s.quantifieduncertainty.org +# ELASTIC_INDEX=metaforecast +# ELASTIC_USER=elastic +# ELASTIC_PASSWORD=... + +# DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES=postgresql://...@localhost:5432/...?schema=public +# POSTGRES_NO_SSL=1 + +# DEBUG_MODE=off + +# INFER_COOKIE=... +# GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE=TODO +# GOOGLE_API_KEY=TODO +# SECRET_BETFAIR_ENDPOINT=TODO diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/graphql.config.yaml b/apps/metaforecast/graphql.config.yaml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..72edfcf827 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/graphql.config.yaml @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +schema: http://localhost:3000/api/graphql diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/input/givewellopenphil-questions.json b/apps/metaforecast/input/givewellopenphil-questions.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..d5f82ad9cf --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/input/givewellopenphil-questions.json @@ -0,0 +1,3751 @@ +[ + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-0", + "title": "OFTW moves more than $2.5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2020", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: One for the World — General Support", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-1", + "title": "Conditioned on it still being active, OFTW moves more than $5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2023", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: One for the World — General Support", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-2", + "title": "One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after one year", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2019", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-3", + "title": "One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after two years", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2020", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-4", + "title": "Zusha! is recommended as a top charity by year-end 2017", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-5", + "title": "Zusha! appears more cost-effective than AMF", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-6", + "title": "Zusha! appears roughly as cost-effective as AMF", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-7", + "title": "Zusha! appears less cost-effective than AMF (but is still a top charity recommendation)", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-8", + "title": "Good Ventures gives additional funding to Charity Science: Health in one year", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support. Resolution: 2017", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-9", + "title": "Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-10", + "title": "We will recommend another GiveWell Incubation Grant to Charity Science Health by August 2018", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-11", + "title": "Charity Science Health will be a GiveWell top charity by the end of 2019", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-12", + "title": "Good Ventures gives Results for Development a second grant of approximately the same size in 12 months", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Resolution: 2017", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-13", + "title": "Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Results for Development is a top charity by the end of 2019", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-14", + "title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-15", + "title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is not detected by the RCT", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Actual estimate was \"small probability, close to 0%\". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-16", + "title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-17", + "title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is either not detected by the RCT or is unclear", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-18", + "title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we either conclude as much or are uncertain enough that we choose not to pursue New Incentives further", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-19", + "title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we falsely believe it is higher and do pursue New Incentives further", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-20", + "title": "After seeing the RCT results, we are significantly uncertain about whether or not to recommend New Incentives as a top charity", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-21", + "title": "GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >3x as cost-effective as GiveDirectly", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-22", + "title": "GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >2x as cost-effective as AMF:", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Actual estimate was \"<10%\". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-23", + "title": "New Incentives becomes a top charity by November 2020", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-24", + "title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2016", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-25", + "title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2017", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-26", + "title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2018", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-27", + "title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least twice as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-28", + "title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least five times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-29", + "title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least ten times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-30", + "title": "New Incentives brings in at least $250,000 from a funder other than Good Ventures and the Lampert Family Foundation by the end of 2018", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-31", + "title": "New Incentives still operates in 2019", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-32", + "title": "We provide funding for an RCT of New Incentives' program", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-33", + "title": "New Incentives is a top charity at the end of 2019", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-34", + "title": "No Lean Season is a top charity at the end of giving season 2017", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (December 2016 grant)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-35", + "title": "We find a significant error in Evidence Action's financial documents in 2018", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-36", + "title": "An Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season becomes a top charity by the end of 2021", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-37", + "title": "The Deworm the World Initiative's room for more funding (including execution levels 1 and 2) exceeds $10 million as of November 2018", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-38", + "title": "GiveWell Incubation Grants provides at least $250,000 to an Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season by the end of 2018", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-39", + "title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2017", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-40", + "title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2018", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-41", + "title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2019", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-42", + "title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least five times as good as cash transfers", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-43", + "title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is less than twice as good as cash transfers", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-44", + "title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least ten times as good as cash transfers", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-45", + "title": "The study detects an effect that is too small relative to the cost of implementing the intervention for it to be worth scaling up", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-46", + "title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study yields a result that we're not confident in", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-47", + "title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study detects an effect that would be worth scaling up, but we are unable to find an implementer interested in doing so", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "(for instance, if GiveDirectly were to decide not to incorporate the intervention because it is too time-intensive or diverts attention from other activities, or because GiveDirectly interprets the study's results differently than we do). Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-48", + "title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughly", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-49", + "title": "GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage points", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-50", + "title": "GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively)", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-51", + "title": "Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successful", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-52", + "title": "Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes)", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-53", + "title": "Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline)", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-54", + "title": "The KLPS-4 survey significantly positively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that increases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-55", + "title": "The KLPS-4 survey significantly negatively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that decreases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-56", + "title": "This grant does not lead to any new top charities.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-57", + "title": "The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that is 1-2x the cost-effectiveness of our marginal spending on current top charities.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-58", + "title": "The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that's >2x as cost-effective as our marginal spending on current top charities", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-59", + "title": "The Beta incubator program has impacts that lead us to make a public case that it was extremely cost-effective overall", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "(i.e., it resulted in at least $10 million in spending at 15x the cost-effectiveness of cash transfers or more). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-60", + "title": "Our marginal spending on top charities will be 2.5x as cost-effective as cash or less (using our current cost-effectiveness estimate for cash)", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-61", + "title": "Following its RCT, we estimate that New Incentives is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-62", + "title": "Following its RCT, we estimate that Charity Science Health is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-63", + "title": "By end of 2018, we model the marginal cost-effectiveness of giving to our top charities at roughly 2x cash.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-64", + "title": "We publish a blog post on IDinsight's work on AMF's monitoring.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018). Resolution: February 2019", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-65", + "title": "Evidence Action raises a total of $6,120,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2022", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-66", + "title": "Evidence Action raises a total of $40,800,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2024", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-67", + "title": "The Indian government will allow Evidence Action to accept foreign donations to the Evidence Action India Foundation by the end of 2023", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-68", + "title": "Evidence Action will have hired a Chief Program Officer and at least one other leader by the end of 2019.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-69", + "title": "Evidence Action will have hired all new full-time positions for the fundraising function and senior leadership by the end of 2020", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-70", + "title": "Evidence Action will have finalized a strategy on its approach to compensation by the end of 2020", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-71", + "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 3x as cost-effective as cash", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-72", + "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 5x as cost-effective as cash", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-73", + "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 7.5x as cost-effective as cash", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-74", + "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 10x as cost-effective as cash", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-75", + "title": "The RCT results are inconclusive, such that after seeing them we have significant uncertainty about whether to make New Incentives a top charity", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-76", + "title": "We cite our learning experience from the New Incentives RCT as part of our reasoning for funding a future RCT", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "(including any RCTs related to current GiveWell Incubation Grant recipients, such as Evidence Action's Beta Incubator). Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-77", + "title": "The New Incentives RCT results are cited by another funder or agency when making a recommendation for or against pursuing CCTs for immunization, or as a reference in future research", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-78", + "title": "We believe direct funding of IFA in India is no more than 2x less cost-effective than we believe it is now", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "(as discussed above, we currently estimate it's roughly 9x as cost-effective as cash transfers, using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-79", + "title": "Evidence Action believes that it can add substantial value to India's IFA program and requests over $500,000 for a follow-up grant to move past scoping.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-80", + "title": "Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $6 million total on IFA technical assistance that GiveWell models as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-81", + "title": "Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-82", + "title": "Implied from other calculations: Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-83", + "title": "Nick produces a paper summarizing his work on this project.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-84", + "title": "Nick collects forecasts from at least 10 academics on at least four studies.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-85", + "title": "The academics' pooled forecast of the probability that New Incentives' intervention increases vaccine coverage by 15 percentage points differs from GiveWell's internal forecast by at least 10 percentage points", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "(for instance, the academics give a 45% chance while we give a 60% chance). Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-86", + "title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-87", + "title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least half as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-88", + "title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least twice as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-89", + "title": "Charity Science Health receives enough funding from other donors to continue its operations through the end of 2020.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/charity-science-exit-grant-july-2019#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Charity Science Health — Exit Grant", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-90", + "title": "The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, AND it will not find a statistically significant result on COVID-19.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-91", + "title": "The RCT will find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, but NOT COVID-19.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-92", + "title": "The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was lower than expected incidence of COVID-19 or self-reported respiratory symptoms.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. 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Resolution: June 1, 2021", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-102", + "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 0-10%.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. 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Resolution: June 1, 2021", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-104", + "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 20-30%.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-105", + "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 30-40%.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-106", + "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of >40%.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-107", + "title": "At least one academic paper will be published in a top 200 academic journal on the basis of this RCT.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-108", + "title": "Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in over 50,000 tweets according to altmetrics.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-109", + "title": "Conditional on a preprint being published the study will receive justified criticism.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Criticisms to be as bad as: https://metrics.stanford.edu/PNAS%20retraction%20request%20LoE%20061820; determined by a panel of three GiveWell researchers if it's not obvious. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-110", + "title": "Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, the WHO will publish an update to its guidance on masks mentioning this study.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-111", + "title": "Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, we will see at least one country with a population >20 million update its guidance on mask-wearing, explicitly referring to EITHER this evidence OR updated WHO guidance that refers to this evidence.", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. 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Resolution: April 1, 2021", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-117", + "title": "By the end of 2019 we will fund at least one long-term follow-up study because of this project", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-118", + "title": "By the end of 2019 we will fund at least two long-term follow-up studies because of this project", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", + "description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "id": "givewellopenphil-2021-119", + "title": "By the end of 2019 we renew the grant to fund further research into intervention areas where we could potentially fund long-term follow-up studies", + "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts", + 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[...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.\"\n\nThis estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his \"business as usual\" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Existential risk in the 21st century", + "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Will MacAskill (~2019)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Extinction risk in the next century", + "url": "https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours (~2017)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: Probably at or above 3%\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Risk of extinction over the next five centuries", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "John Leslie (~1996)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: At or above 30%\n\nThe probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Martin Rees (~2003)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ≤50% (\"no better than fifty-fifty\")\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Metaculus responders (~2021)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: Median: 1%. Mean: 7%.\n\nWhile the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'..\n\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100?.\n\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.).\n\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Existential disaster will do us in", + "url": "https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Nick Bostrom (~2002)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: Probably at or above 25%\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Gott III (~1993)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Wells (~2009)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.3-0.4%\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0035, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9965, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Global catastrophic risk per year.", + "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Simpson (~2016)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.2%\n\nBeard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about \"global catastrophic risk\".", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 50% (~1 in 2)\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years", + "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Ozzie Gooen (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: >20%\n\nI think it's fairly likely (>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Global Catastrophic Risk Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence", + "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Survey of AI experts (~2017)" + }, + "description": "The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0-10%\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century", + "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Ben Garfinkel (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~0.1-1%\n\nGarfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied \"I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.055, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.945, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe", + "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Rohin Shah (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~5%\n\nThis is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views\": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "AI-induced existential catastrophe", + "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Buck Schlegris (~2020)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years", + "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "James Fodor (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.05%\n\nThis was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Existential risk from AI", + "url": "https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Stuart Armstrong (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 5-30%\n\nI put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased.\" I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Chance of humanity not surviving AI", + "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40)", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Stuart Armstrong (~2014)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 50, 40, or 33%\n\nStated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted \"This number fluctuates a lot\". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an \"actually superintelligent\" AI, whereas for \"AI in general\" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more \"optimism\" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)", + "url": "https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Jaan Tallinn (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 33-50%\n\nThis comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said \"two obvious Schelling points\" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.415, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.585, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~3% (~1 in 30)\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.05%\n\nThis is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic", + "url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie (~2017)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8)\n\nThe fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include \"accidental\" release of a bioengineered pathogen.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.00004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism", + "url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie (~2017)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.00019% (0.0000019)\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0000019, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9999981, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0001%\n\nThe fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for \"synthetic biology\" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0001%\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years", + "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "James Fodor (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0002%\n\nThis was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.5%\n\nThis is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0100%\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~2% (~1 in 50)\n\nSee this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)", + "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~33% (\"about one in three\")\n\nOrd: \"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?\n\nMy best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.\"\"\n\nArden Koehler replies \"\"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?\"\"\n\nOrd replies: \"\"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about.\"\"", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Survey of experts in the AI field (~2016)" + }, + "description": "This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was \"4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)", + "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Rohin Shah (~2019)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\nThis is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”", + "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Rohin Shah (~2019)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates)\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.", + "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~20%\n\nThis may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.\n\"Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\n[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential", + "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~2%\n\nI give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper", + "url": "http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Luke Oman (~2012)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)\n\nI think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.000055, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.999945, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming", + "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming", + "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 30-40%\n\nArden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming", + "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming", + "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming", + "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.030000000000000027, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)" + }, + "description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)" + }, + "description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.1%\n\nReduced from his 5% unconditional probability", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)" + }, + "description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests", + "url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Adam Gleave (~2019)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\nSo, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless", + "url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Adam Gleave (~2019)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~20-30%\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem", + "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Rohin Shah (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~30%\n\nThere’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important", + "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Buck Schlegris (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~30%\n\nI haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years", + "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~50%\n\nBasically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\nToby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Soft AGI takeoff", + "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015", + "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all", + "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all", + "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled", + "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)", + "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.5%\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)", + "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century", + "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: ~5%\n\nI give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Per year chance of nuclear war", + "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez (~2019)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 1.10%\n\nIn this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.011, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.989, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia", + "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez (~2019)" + }, + "description": "Actual estimate: 0.38%\n\nIn this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.0038, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9962, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents", + "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.020000000000000018, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100", + "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens", + "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort", + "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort", + "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)", + "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + }, + { + "title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)", + "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/", + "platform": "X-risk estimates", + "moreoriginsdata": { + "author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)" + }, + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + } + } +] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/next-env.d.ts b/apps/metaforecast/next-env.d.ts new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..40c3d68096 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/next-env.d.ts @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +/// +/// + +// NOTE: This file should not be edited +// see https://nextjs.org/docs/app/building-your-application/configuring/typescript for more information. diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/ops/Dockerfile b/apps/metaforecast/ops/Dockerfile new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..71cd36fade --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/ops/Dockerfile @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +# Use the official Node.js 20 image for builds +ARG DOCKER_NODE_VERSION=20-bookworm-slim + +FROM node:$DOCKER_NODE_VERSION AS build + +WORKDIR /app + +# Install OpenSSL - necessary for Prisma client +# Mount caches via https://stackoverflow.com/a/72851168 +RUN --mount=type=cache,id=apt-lists,target=/var/lib/apt/lists,sharing=locked \ + --mount=type=cache,id=apt-cache,target=/var/cache/apt,sharing=locked \ + rm -f /etc/apt/apt.conf.d/docker-clean \ + && apt-get update \ + && apt-get install -y openssl + +# Install pnpm globally +RUN npm install -g pnpm + +COPY . . + +# Install dependencies +RUN --mount=type=cache,id=pnpm-store,target=/root/.local/share/pnpm/store/v3 pnpm install --frozen-lockfile + +ENV NODE_ENV=production + +RUN pnpm build diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/ops/chart/Chart.yaml b/apps/metaforecast/ops/chart/Chart.yaml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..48de9e839b --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/ops/chart/Chart.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +apiVersion: v2 +name: metaforecast +version: "0.1.0" diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/ops/chart/README.md b/apps/metaforecast/ops/chart/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..52e6f1ab3f --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/ops/chart/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +# Helm chart for Metaforecast + +## Notes + +The `image.tag` is updated automatically by the CI GitHub Action on each commit. + +The secret with the name matching the `envSecret` value, containing environment variables, should be created in the target Kubernetes cluster. See `env.example` at the root of the repository for the required variables. + +Elasticsearch is not deployed by default; you need to set up your own instance and provide its credentials in the secret. If you want to self-host Elastic in Kubernetes, you'll need to set up [ECK](https://www.elastic.co/guide/en/cloud-on-k8s/current/k8s-quickstart.html) (that's what we do at QURI) or some other configuration. diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/ops/chart/templates/jobs.yaml b/apps/metaforecast/ops/chart/templates/jobs.yaml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..d033c12dd7 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/ops/chart/templates/jobs.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,29 @@ +{{- range $jobname, $job := .Values.jobs }} +--- +apiVersion: batch/v1 +kind: CronJob +metadata: + name: {{ $.Release.Name }}-{{ $jobname }} +spec: + concurrencyPolicy: Forbid + schedule: {{ $job.schedule | required "schedule is required" }} + timeZone: Etc/UTC + jobTemplate: + metadata: + labels: + app: {{ $.Release.Name }} + cronjob: {{ $jobname }} + spec: + template: + spec: + restartPolicy: Never + containers: + - name: cronjob + image: "{{ required "image.name is required" $.Values.image.name }}:{{ required "image.tag is required" $.Values.image.tag }}" + imagePullPolicy: Always + envFrom: + - secretRef: + name: {{ $.Values.envSecret }} + command: + {{- $job.command | required "command is required" | toYaml | nindent 12 }} +{{- end }} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/ops/chart/values.yaml b/apps/metaforecast/ops/chart/values.yaml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..d05024bbcf --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/ops/chart/values.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +image: + name: ghcr.io/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast + # do not edit; this tag will be updated by the CI GitHub Action on each commit + tag: sha-474261cff1e4b5adbb90c7a2674e9ad5ccbb962d + +# Secret; you should create this in your k8s cluster. +envSecret: metaforecast-env + +jobs: + scheduler: + command: ['./node_modules/.bin/ts-node', '-T', 'src/backend/flow/doEverythingForScheduler.ts'] + schedule: '0 3 * * *' # every day at 3am + frontpage: + command: ['./node_modules/.bin/ts-node', '-T', 'src/backend/index.ts', 'frontpage'] + schedule: '0 6 * * *' # every day at 6am diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/package.json b/apps/metaforecast/package.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..828a789174 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/package.json @@ -0,0 +1,125 @@ +{ + "name": "metaforecast", + "version": "2.0.0", + "private": true, + "description": "Get forecasts from various platforms", + "repository": { + "type": "git", + "url": "git+https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast.git" + }, + "engines": { + "node": ">=20.x" + }, + "keywords": [ + "forecasts", + "predictions" + ], + "author": "Nuño Sempere", + "license": "MIT", + "bugs": { + "url": "https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast/" + }, + "homepage": "https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast#readme", + "scripts": { + "cli": "NODE_NO_WARNINGS=1 tsx src/backend/cli/index.ts", + "setCookies": "./src/backend/manual/setCookies.sh", + "dev": "next dev --turbopack", + "gen": "prisma generate", + "build": "pnpm run gen && next build", + "dbshell": ". .env && psql $DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES" + }, + "dependencies": { + "@atmina/urql-custom-scalars-exchange": "^1.1.0", + "@elastic/elasticsearch": "^8.15.1", + "@floating-ui/react-dom": "^0.7.2", + "@graphql-yoga/plugin-response-cache": "^3.10.0", + "@inquirer/prompts": "^7.2.3", + "@pothos/core": "^4.3.0", + "@pothos/plugin-prisma": "^4.3.1", + "@pothos/plugin-relay": "^4.3.0", + "@prisma/client": "^5.21.1", + "@tailwindcss/forms": "^0.4.1", + "@tailwindcss/typography": "^0.5.15", + "@types/chroma-js": "^2.4.4", + "@types/commander": "^2.12.5", + "@types/dom-to-image": "^2.6.7", + "@types/google-spreadsheet": "^3.3.0", + "@types/jsdom": "^21.1.7", + "@types/nprogress": "^0.2.3", + "@types/react": "^18.3.12", + "@types/react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.7", + "@types/textversionjs": "^1.1.4", + "@types/tunnel": "^0.0.7", + "@urql/core": "5.0.8", + "@urql/next": "^1.1.2", + "airtable": "^0.12.2", + "ajv": "^8.17.1", + "api": "^5.0.7", + "axios": "^1.1.0", + "chroma-js": "^2.4.2", + "clsx": "^2.1.1", + "commander": "^13.1.0", + "date-fns": "^4.1.0", + "dom-to-image": "^2.6.0", + "dotenv": "^16.4.5", + "fetch": "^1.1.0", + "fs": "^0.0.1-security", + "google-spreadsheet": "^3.3.0", + "graphql": "^16.9.0", + "graphql-yoga": "^5.8.0", + "html-to-image": "^1.11.11", + "https": "^1.0.0", + "isomorphic-fetch": "^3.0.0", + "jsdom": "^19.0.0", + "lodash": "^4.17.21", + "next": "15.0.2", + "next-plausible": "^3.12.3", + "nprogress": "^0.2.0", + "open": "^10.1.0", + "pg": "^8.13.1", + "postcss": "^8.4.47", + "prisma": "^5.21.1", + "re-resizable": "^6.10.0", + "react": "19.0.0-rc-02c0e824-20241028", + "react-component-export-image": "^1.0.6", + "react-compound-slider": "^3.4.0", + "react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.1.0", + "react-dom": "19.0.0-rc-02c0e824-20241028", + "react-dropdown": "^1.11.0", + "react-hook-form": "^7.38.0", + "react-icons": "^4.6.0", + "react-is": "19.0.0-rc-02c0e824-20241028", + "react-loading-skeleton": "^3.5.0", + "react-markdown": "^9.0.1", + "react-select": "^5.8.2", + "rehype-external-links": "^3.0.0", + "remark-gfm": "^4.0.0", + "tabletojson": "^2.0.7", + "tailwindcss": "^3.4.14", + "textversionjs": "^1.1.3", + "ts-node": "^10.9.2", + "tunnel": "^0.0.6", + "urql": "^4.2.0", + "victory": "^37.3.1", + "zod": "^3.24.1" + }, + "devDependencies": { + "@commander-js/extra-typings": "^13.1.0", + "@graphql-codegen/cli": "^5.0.3", + "@graphql-codegen/introspection": "^4.0.3", + "@graphql-codegen/near-operation-file-preset": "^3.0.0", + "@graphql-codegen/schema-ast": "^4.1.0", + "@graphql-codegen/typed-document-node": "^5.0.11", + "@graphql-codegen/typescript": "^4.1.1", + "@graphql-codegen/typescript-operations": "^4.3.1", + "@graphql-typed-document-node/core": "^3.2.0", + "@types/lodash": "^4.17.13", + "@types/pg": "^8.11.10", + "autoprefixer": "^10.4.20", + "eslint": "^8.57.1", + "eslint-config-next": "15.0.2", + "tsx": "^4.19.2", + "typescript": "5.6.3" + }, + "packageManager": "pnpm@8.15.5+sha512.b051a32c7e695833b84926d3b29b8cca57254b589f0649d899c6e9d0edb670b91ec7e2a43459bae73759bb5ce619c3266f116bf931ce22d1ef1759a7e45aa96f" +} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/postcss.config.js b/apps/metaforecast/postcss.config.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..12a703d900 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/postcss.config.js @@ -0,0 +1,6 @@ +module.exports = { + plugins: { + tailwindcss: {}, + autoprefixer: {}, + }, +}; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220407201706_init/migration.sql b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220407201706_init/migration.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..f4ecbdd74d --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220407201706_init/migration.sql @@ -0,0 +1,57 @@ +-- CreateTable +CREATE TABLE "dashboards" ( + "id" TEXT NOT NULL, + "title" TEXT NOT NULL, + "description" TEXT NOT NULL, + "contents" JSONB NOT NULL, + "timestamp" TIMESTAMP(6) NOT NULL, + "creator" TEXT NOT NULL, + "extra" JSONB NOT NULL, + + CONSTRAINT "dashboards_pkey" PRIMARY KEY ("id") +); + +-- CreateTable +CREATE TABLE "frontpage" ( + "id" SERIAL NOT NULL, + "frontpage_full" JSONB NOT NULL, + "frontpage_sliced" JSONB NOT NULL, + + CONSTRAINT "frontpage_pkey" PRIMARY KEY ("id") +); + +-- CreateTable +CREATE TABLE "history" ( + "id" TEXT NOT NULL, + "title" TEXT NOT NULL, + "url" TEXT NOT NULL, + "platform" TEXT NOT NULL, + "description" TEXT NOT NULL, + "options" JSONB NOT NULL, + "timestamp" TIMESTAMP(6) NOT NULL, + "stars" INTEGER NOT NULL, + "qualityindicators" JSONB NOT NULL, + "extra" JSONB NOT NULL, + "pk" SERIAL NOT NULL, + + CONSTRAINT "history_pkey" PRIMARY KEY ("pk") +); + +-- CreateTable +CREATE TABLE "questions" ( + "id" TEXT NOT NULL, + "title" TEXT NOT NULL, + "url" TEXT NOT NULL, + "platform" TEXT NOT NULL, + "description" TEXT NOT NULL, + "options" JSONB NOT NULL, + "timestamp" TIMESTAMP(6) NOT NULL, + "stars" INTEGER NOT NULL, + "qualityindicators" JSONB NOT NULL, + "extra" JSONB NOT NULL, + + CONSTRAINT "questions_pkey" PRIMARY KEY ("id") +); + +-- CreateIndex +CREATE INDEX "history_id_idx" ON "history"("id"); diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220422193152_frontpage_ids/migration.sql b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220422193152_frontpage_ids/migration.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..d46f7d1c2b --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220422193152_frontpage_ids/migration.sql @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +-- CreateTable +CREATE TABLE "FrontpageId" ( + "id" TEXT NOT NULL +); + +-- CreateIndex +CREATE UNIQUE INDEX "FrontpageId_id_key" ON "FrontpageId"("id"); + +-- AddForeignKey +ALTER TABLE "FrontpageId" ADD CONSTRAINT "FrontpageId_id_fkey" FOREIGN KEY ("id") REFERENCES "questions"("id") ON DELETE RESTRICT ON UPDATE CASCADE; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220423191830_drop_stars_column/migration.sql b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220423191830_drop_stars_column/migration.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..8ad6b6da84 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220423191830_drop_stars_column/migration.sql @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +/* + Warnings: + + - You are about to drop the column `stars` on the `history` table. All the data in the column will be lost. + - You are about to drop the column `stars` on the `questions` table. All the data in the column will be lost. + +*/ +-- AlterTable +ALTER TABLE "history" DROP COLUMN "stars"; + +-- AlterTable +ALTER TABLE "questions" DROP COLUMN "stars"; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220423192234_drop_old_frontpage_table/migration.sql b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220423192234_drop_old_frontpage_table/migration.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..4dee470c0c --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220423192234_drop_old_frontpage_table/migration.sql @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +/* + Warnings: + + - You are about to drop the `frontpage` table. If the table is not empty, all the data it contains will be lost. + +*/ +-- DropTable +DROP TABLE "frontpage"; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220425220646_history_relation/migration.sql b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220425220646_history_relation/migration.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..dd2a023e34 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220425220646_history_relation/migration.sql @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +ALTER TABLE "history" ADD COLUMN "idref" TEXT; + +ALTER TABLE "history" ADD CONSTRAINT "history_idref_fkey" FOREIGN KEY ("idref") REFERENCES "questions"("id") ON DELETE SET NULL ON UPDATE RESTRICT; + +UPDATE "history" SET idref = id WHERE id in (SELECT id FROM "questions"); diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220519104640_new_timestamps/migration.sql b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220519104640_new_timestamps/migration.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..ab404ff29b --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220519104640_new_timestamps/migration.sql @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +-- questions +ALTER TABLE "questions" + ADD COLUMN "fetched" TIMESTAMP(6), + ADD COLUMN "first_seen" TIMESTAMP(6); + +UPDATE "questions" + SET "fetched" = "timestamp", "first_seen" = "timestamp"; + +ALTER TABLE "questions" + ALTER COLUMN "fetched" SET NOT NULL, + ALTER COLUMN "first_seen" SET NOT NULL; + +-- history +ALTER TABLE "history" + ADD COLUMN "fetched" TIMESTAMP(6); + +UPDATE "history" SET "fetched" = "timestamp"; + +ALTER TABLE "history" + ALTER COLUMN "fetched" SET NOT NULL; + +-- populate first_seen +UPDATE questions + SET "first_seen" = h.fs + FROM ( + SELECT id, MIN(fetched) AS fs FROM history GROUP BY id + ) as h + WHERE questions.id = h.id; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220520195517_indices/migration.sql b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220520195517_indices/migration.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..761f54112b --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220520195517_indices/migration.sql @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +-- CreateIndex +CREATE INDEX "history_platform_idx" ON "history"("platform"); + +-- CreateIndex +CREATE INDEX "history_fetched_idx" ON "history"("fetched"); + +-- CreateIndex +CREATE INDEX "questions_platform_idx" ON "questions"("platform"); + +-- CreateIndex +CREATE INDEX "questions_fetched_idx" ON "questions"("fetched"); + +-- CreateIndex +CREATE INDEX "questions_first_seen_idx" ON "questions"("first_seen"); diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220526101259_no_timestamp_field/migration.sql b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220526101259_no_timestamp_field/migration.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..c80c7103ea --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220526101259_no_timestamp_field/migration.sql @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +/* + Warnings: + + - You are about to drop the column `timestamp` on the `history` table. All the data in the column will be lost. + - You are about to drop the column `timestamp` on the `questions` table. All the data in the column will be lost. + +*/ +-- AlterTable +ALTER TABLE "history" DROP COLUMN "timestamp"; + +-- AlterTable +ALTER TABLE "questions" DROP COLUMN "timestamp"; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220603165310_cascade_delete_frontpage/migration.sql b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220603165310_cascade_delete_frontpage/migration.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..854d18fe41 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20220603165310_cascade_delete_frontpage/migration.sql @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +-- DropForeignKey +ALTER TABLE "FrontpageId" DROP CONSTRAINT "FrontpageId_id_fkey"; + +-- AddForeignKey +ALTER TABLE "FrontpageId" ADD CONSTRAINT "FrontpageId_id_fkey" FOREIGN KEY ("id") REFERENCES "questions"("id") ON DELETE CASCADE ON UPDATE CASCADE; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20230808003420_idref_index/migration.sql b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20230808003420_idref_index/migration.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..251eea7a37 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/20230808003420_idref_index/migration.sql @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ +-- CreateIndex +CREATE INDEX "history_idref_idx" ON "history"("idref"); diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/migration_lock.toml b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/migration_lock.toml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..fbffa92c2b --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/migrations/migration_lock.toml @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +# Please do not edit this file manually +# It should be added in your version-control system (i.e. Git) +provider = "postgresql" \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/prisma/schema.prisma b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/schema.prisma new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..c72b9a9a4a --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/prisma/schema.prisma @@ -0,0 +1,227 @@ +generator client { + provider = "prisma-client-js" +} + +generator pothos { + provider = "prisma-pothos-types" +} + +datasource db { + provider = "postgresql" + url = env("DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES") +} + +model Dashboard { + id String @id + title String + description String + contents Json + timestamp DateTime @db.Timestamp(6) + creator String + extra Json + + @@map("dashboards") +} + +model Question { + /// E.g. "fantasyscotus-580" + id String @id + /// E.g. "In Wooden v. U.S., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision" + title String + /// E.g. "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/wooden-v-us/" + url String + /// E.g. "fantasyscotus" + platform String + /// E.g. "62.50% (75 out of 120) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 50.00% of the time." + description String + + // E.g.: + // [ + // { + // "name": "Yes", + // "probability": 0.625, + // "type": "PROBABILITY" + // }, + // { + // "name": "No", + // "probability": 0.375, + // "type": "PROBABILITY" + // } + // ] + options Json + fetched DateTime @db.Timestamp(6) + firstSeen DateTime @map("first_seen") @db.Timestamp(6) + + // { + // "numforecasts": 120, + // "stars": 2 + // } + qualityindicators Json + extra Json + + onFrontpage FrontpageId? + history History[] + + @@index([platform]) + @@index([fetched]) + @@index([firstSeen]) + @@map("questions") +} + +model History { + id String + idref String? + question Question? @relation(fields: [idref], references: [id], onDelete: SetNull, onUpdate: Restrict) + title String + url String + platform String + description String + options Json + fetched DateTime @db.Timestamp(6) + qualityindicators Json + extra Json + pk Int @id @default(autoincrement()) + + @@index([id]) + @@index([platform]) + @@index([fetched]) + @@index([idref]) + @@map("history") +} + +model FrontpageId { + question Question @relation(fields: [id], references: [id], onDelete: Cascade) + id String @unique +} + +// Manifold-specific tables + +enum ManifoldToken { + MANA + CASH +} + +// Documented in backend/platforms/manifold/apiSchema.ts +model ManifoldMarket { + id String @id + + creatorId String + creator ManifoldMarketUser @relation(fields: [creatorId], references: [id], onDelete: Cascade) + + // Market attributes + createdTime DateTime // When the market was created + closeTime DateTime? // Min of creator's chosen date, and resolutionTime + question String + + url String + + outcomeType String // BINARY, FREE_RESPONSE, MULTIPLE_CHOICE, NUMERIC, PSEUDO_NUMERIC, BOUNTIED_QUESTION, POLL, or ... + mechanism String // dpm-2, cpmm-1, or cpmm-multi-1 + + probability Float? + pool Json? // For CPMM markets, the number of shares in the liquidity pool. For DPM markets, the amount of mana invested in each answer. + p Float? // CPMM markets only, probability constant in y^p * n^(1-p) = k + totalLiquidity Float? // CPMM markets only, the amount of mana deposited into the liquidity pool + + value Float? // PSEUDO_NUMERIC markets only, the current market value, which is mapped from probability using min, max, and isLogScale. + min Float? // PSEUDO_NUMERIC markets only, the minimum resolvable value + max Float? // PSEUDO_NUMERIC markets only, the maximum resolvable value + isLogScale Boolean? // PSEUDO_NUMERIC markets only, if true `number = (max - min + 1)^probability + minstart - 1`, otherwise `number = min + (max - min) * probability` + + volume Float + volume24Hours Float + + isResolved Boolean + resolutionTime DateTime? + resolution String? + resolutionProbability Float? // Used for BINARY markets resolved to MKT + uniqueBettorCount Int + + lastUpdatedTime DateTime? + lastBetTime DateTime? + + token ManifoldToken? + siblingContractId String? // id of the prizecash or mana version of this question that you get to by toggling. + + // FullMarket specific fields + answers ManifoldMarketAnswer[] // Answers for multi markets + + // multi markets only, whether answers are dependant (that is add up to 100%, typically used when only one answer should win). Always true for dpm-2 multiple choice and free response + shouldAnswersSumToOne Boolean? + // multi markets only, who can add answers + addAnswersMode String? + + // Poll only. + // Poll options don't have ids, so storing them in a model would be problematic. + // .array( + // z.object({ + // text: z.string(), + // votes: z.number(), + // }) + // ) + options Json + + totalBounty Float? // bounty only + bountyLeft Float? // bounty only + + // Rich text content. See https://tiptap.dev/guide/output#option-1-json + description Json? + // string description without formatting, images, or embeds + textDescription String + + coverImageUrl String? + + // topics tagged in this market + groups ManifoldMarketGroup[] +} + +model ManifoldMarketUser { + id String @id + name String + username String + avatarUrl String? + + // TODO - more fields + + ManifoldMarket ManifoldMarket[] +} + +// Note: API documentation on this in https://docs.manifold.markets/api#get-v0marketmarketid is not correct. +// Refer to https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/blob/main/common/src/api/market-types.ts and https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/blob/main/common/src/answer.ts instead. +model ManifoldMarketAnswer { + id String @id + + marketId String + market ManifoldMarket @relation(fields: [marketId], references: [id], onDelete: Cascade) + + createdTime DateTime + + index Int + text String + probability Float + + pool Json? + + // TODO - more fields +} + +// "topic", e.g. https://manifold.markets/topic/covid-origins +model ManifoldGroup { + id String @id + + slug String @unique + name String + + groups ManifoldMarketGroup[] +} + +// many-to-many relation +model ManifoldMarketGroup { + marketId String + market ManifoldMarket @relation(fields: [marketId], references: [id], onDelete: Cascade) + + groupId String + group ManifoldGroup @relation(fields: [groupId], references: [id], onDelete: Cascade) + + @@unique([marketId, groupId]) +} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/public/icons/favicon.svg b/apps/metaforecast/public/icons/favicon.svg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..7e0f77c7d4 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/public/icons/favicon.svg @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ + + + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/public/icons/logo.svg b/apps/metaforecast/public/icons/logo.svg new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..d20878d2fe --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/public/icons/logo.svg @@ -0,0 +1,64 @@ + + image/svg+xml + + + + + + 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z*)$-@Q_p7Kjv4@|YuMo!K<`lF04w_`Xf8j4}ark+Ox8@t~u7@AaC(5=>f6mO}MAT0mt5~g1_SoI=UIml?3 zaoSdpP6R}pW8&)$g9Q)J^9=jqR>RjtN(8J2{{n&$;?YFiR*2z(VIJwSsCBDUu$X7@ z_hIbq!LsdHnIO|VPc(i4W_^5(_*gBs64cZ}L4Xrt3hsc6-Ze!wh)Bl={SPqxKP~WoYXQnabV^vv2?r^uh#eeE|* zOsveWz)94akq#YFnr?0WOOl>*{bP|uaaoyLe;p0BX3lL4U}Ec&#TcnW;N)Rg3)LwU)r57ZHKA1X0%gl`r!H+QQen_V2)FNOBHQ64=r zvqd7Z(@1ym8|9jMXAYE*5W%jw=Ur@T>vBTUcGQm_H6^<>duM=B!G`bOJz$^jc(puR ziJAnYJ#{UCV}@%sk#4O<4sUN)oGwFWow4=yrVS4lf-F;hVH~PCj@aF`v0>NL6gtM8 z`tlXGo$$>9)x5oJTeeGp5~z_Ef<`Q=__FuSqn0ntv-uey1axpw_h@+wQ3MqGDAb1_fB(R=R&4eWy~gWtI_Cn<(J$u ztb7018TwrP6gkD=AS0JyOrQl6&z`Zhv(wTJn3;(aldU>)R{7sEh-P|ijgG#5y=g07 z0L`=a!B38S6+*7%v!yL-&Ku*++YPFT2L)g82=d(7yT)IBJU`mAGG{aC&i(twO}A(N z9(%Z8q7+YC2ZgPgLI0d%)8nN-4I=N0>>I?<^F#RQ$iJwP)`_CUa%DTrxKd}_&Ly?y>RJ4@~uUbC+55D)S`~Uy| literal 0 HcmV?d00001 diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/schema.graphql b/apps/metaforecast/schema.graphql new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..b8e5e6e599 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/schema.graphql @@ -0,0 +1,225 @@ +input CreateDashboardInput { + """ + The creator of the dashboard, e.g. "Peter Parker" + """ + creator: String + + """The longer description of the dashboard""" + description: String + + """List of question ids""" + ids: [ID!]! + + """The title of the dashboard""" + title: String! +} + +type CreateDashboardResult { + dashboard: Dashboard! +} + +type Dashboard { + """ + The creator of the dashboard, e.g. "Peter Parker" + """ + creator: String! + + """The longer description of the dashboard""" + description: String! + id: ID! + + """The list of questions on the dashboard""" + questions: [Question!]! + + """The title of the dashboard""" + title: String! +} + +"""Date serialized as the Unix timestamp.""" +scalar Date + +type History implements QuestionShape { + description: String! + + """Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question""" + fetched: Date! + + """ + Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question, in ISO 8601 format + """ + fetchedStr: String! + + """History items are identified by their integer ids""" + id: ID! + options: [ProbabilityOption!]! + platform: Platform! + qualityIndicators: QualityIndicators! + + """Unique string which identifies the question""" + questionId: ID! + + """Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question""" + timestamp: Date! @deprecated(reason: "Renamed to `fetched`") + title: String! + + """ + Non-unique, a very small number of platforms have a page for more than one prediction + """ + url: String! +} + +type Mutation { + """ + Create a new dashboard; if the dashboard with given ids already exists then it will be returned instead. + """ + createDashboard(input: CreateDashboardInput!): CreateDashboardResult! +} + +type PageInfo { + endCursor: String + hasNextPage: Boolean! + hasPreviousPage: Boolean! + startCursor: String +} + +"""Forecasting platform supported by Metaforecast""" +type Platform { + """ + Short unique platform name, e.g. "xrisk" + """ + id: ID! + + """ + Platform name for displaying on frontend etc., e.g. "X-risk estimates" + """ + label: String! + lastUpdated: Date +} + +type ProbabilityOption { + name: String + + """0 to 1""" + probability: Float +} + +"""Various indicators of the question's quality""" +type QualityIndicators { + liquidity: Float + numForecasters: Int + numForecasts: Int + openInterest: Float + sharesVolume: Float + spread: Float + + """0 to 5""" + stars: Int! + tradeVolume: Float + volume: Float +} + +type Query { + """Look up a single dashboard by its id""" + dashboard(id: ID!): Dashboard + + """Get a list of questions that are currently on the frontpage""" + frontpage: [Question!]! + platforms: [Platform!]! + + """Look up a single question by its id""" + question(id: ID!): Question + questions(after: String, before: String, first: Int, last: Int, orderBy: QuestionsOrderBy): QueryQuestionsConnection! + + """ + Search for questions; uses Elasticsearch instead of the primary metaforecast database + """ + searchQuestions(input: SearchInput!): [Question!]! +} + +type QueryQuestionsConnection { + edges: [QueryQuestionsConnectionEdge!]! + pageInfo: PageInfo! +} + +type QueryQuestionsConnectionEdge { + cursor: String! + node: Question! +} + +type Question implements QuestionShape { + description: String! + + """Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question""" + fetched: Date! + + """ + Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question, in ISO 8601 format + """ + fetchedStr: String! + + """First timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question""" + firstSeen: Date! + + """ + First timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question, in ISO 8601 format + """ + firstSeenStr: String! + history: [History!]! + + """Unique string which identifies the question""" + id: ID! + options: [ProbabilityOption!]! + platform: Platform! + qualityIndicators: QualityIndicators! + + """Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question""" + timestamp: Date! @deprecated(reason: "Renamed to `fetched`") + title: String! + + """ + Non-unique, a very small number of platforms have a page for more than one prediction + """ + url: String! + visualization: String +} + +interface QuestionShape { + description: String! + + """Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question""" + fetched: Date! + + """ + Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question, in ISO 8601 format + """ + fetchedStr: String! + options: [ProbabilityOption!]! + platform: Platform! + qualityIndicators: QualityIndicators! + + """Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question""" + timestamp: Date! @deprecated(reason: "Renamed to `fetched`") + title: String! + + """ + Non-unique, a very small number of platforms have a page for more than one prediction + """ + url: String! +} + +enum QuestionsOrderBy { + FIRST_SEEN_DESC +} + +input SearchInput { + """List of platform ids to filter by""" + forecastingPlatforms: [String!] + + """Minimum number of forecasts on a question""" + forecastsThreshold: Int + limit: Int + query: String! + + """Minimum number of stars on a question""" + starsThreshold: Int +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/scripts/README.md b/apps/metaforecast/scripts/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..f7a4841a00 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/scripts/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +## User contributions + +This folder contains utilities and snippets contributed by users. We welcome contributions. diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/scripts/download-all.mjs b/apps/metaforecast/scripts/download-all.mjs new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..e3a92ee7f6 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/scripts/download-all.mjs @@ -0,0 +1,92 @@ +/* Imports */ +import fs from "fs"; +import axios from "axios"; + +/* Definitions */ +const VERBOSE = true; +let print = (message) => (VERBOSE ? console.log(message) : null); +let graphQLendpoint = "https://metaforecast.org/api/graphql"; +let buildQuery = (endCursor) => `{ + questions(first: 1000 ${!!endCursor ? `after: "${endCursor}"` : ""}) { + edges { + node { + id + title + url + description + options { + name + probability + } + qualityIndicators { + numForecasts + stars + } + firstSeenStr + fetchedStr + } + } + pageInfo { + endCursor + startCursor + } + } +} +`; + +/* Support functions */ +let getSomeMetaforecastPredictions = async (query) => { + let response = await axios({ + url: graphQLendpoint, + method: "POST", + headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" }, + data: JSON.stringify({ query: query }), + }) + .then((res) => res.data) + .then((res) => res.data); // not a typo + return response; +}; + +let save = (questions) => { + fs.writeFileSync("forecasts.json", JSON.stringify(questions, null, 4)); + let tsvHeaders = "title\tplatform\tdate\tforecast\n"; + let tsvRows = questions + .map( + (question) => + `${question.title}\t${question.platform}\t${ + question.timestamp + }\t${JSON.stringify(question.options)}` + ) + .join("\n"); + let tsvFile = tsvHeaders + tsvRows; + print("Saving results to results.tsv"); + fs.writeFileSync("forecasts.tsv", tsvFile); +}; + +let getNodes = (questions) => { + let edges = questions.edges; + let nodes = edges.map((edge) => edge.node); + return nodes; +}; +// main +let getAllMetaforecastPredictions = async () => { + print("Fetching forecasts"); + let results = []; + let firstQuery = await getSomeMetaforecastPredictions(buildQuery()); + results.push(...getNodes(firstQuery.questions)); + let endCursor = firstQuery.questions.pageInfo.endCursor; + while (endCursor) { + print("Cursor: " + endCursor); + let queryResults = await getSomeMetaforecastPredictions( + buildQuery(endCursor) + ); + let nodes = getNodes(queryResults.questions); + results.push(...nodes); + endCursor = queryResults.questions.pageInfo.endCursor; + } + //results = results.map((result) => result.node); + save(results); + return results; +}; + +getAllMetaforecastPredictions(); diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/scripts/download-first-seen-today.mjs b/apps/metaforecast/scripts/download-first-seen-today.mjs new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..d073a58b26 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/scripts/download-first-seen-today.mjs @@ -0,0 +1,91 @@ +/* Imports */ +import fs from "fs"; +import axios from "axios"; + +/* Definitions */ +const VERBOSE = true; +let ISO_DATE_TODAY = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10); +let print = (message) => (VERBOSE ? console.log(message) : null); +let graphQLendpoint = "https://metaforecast.org/api/graphql"; +let buildQuery = (endCursor) => `{ + questions(first: 1000 ${ + !!endCursor ? `after: "${endCursor}"` : "" + } orderBy: FIRST_SEEN_DESC) { + edges { + node { + id + title + url + description + options { + name + probability + } + qualityIndicators { + numForecasts + stars + } + firstSeenStr + fetchedStr + } + } + pageInfo { + endCursor + startCursor + } + } +} +`; + +/* Support functions */ +let getSomeMetaforecastPredictions = async (query) => { + let response = await axios({ + url: graphQLendpoint, + method: "POST", + headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" }, + data: JSON.stringify({ query: query }), + }) + .then((res) => res.data) + .then((res) => res.data); // not a typo + return response; +}; + +let save = (questions) => { + print("Saving Results"); + fs.writeFileSync("forecasts-today.json", JSON.stringify(questions, null, 4)); +}; + +let getNodes = (questions) => { + let edges = questions.edges; + let nodes = edges.map((edge) => edge.node); + return nodes; +}; +// main +let getAllMetaforecastPredictions = async () => { + print("Fetching forecasts"); + let results = []; + let firstQuery = await getSomeMetaforecastPredictions(buildQuery()); + let nodes = getNodes(firstQuery.questions); + let nodesToday = nodes.filter( + (node) => node.firstSeenStr.slice(0, 10) == ISO_DATE_TODAY + ); + results.push(...nodesToday); + let endCursor = firstQuery.questions.pageInfo.endCursor; + while (endCursor && nodesToday.length > 0) { + print("Cursor: " + endCursor); + let queryResults = await getSomeMetaforecastPredictions( + buildQuery(endCursor) + ); + let nodes = getNodes(queryResults.questions); + nodesToday = nodes.filter( + (node) => node.firstSeenStr.slice(0, 10) == ISO_DATE_TODAY + ); + results.push(...nodesToday); + endCursor = queryResults.questions.pageInfo.endCursor; + } + //results = results.map((result) => result.node); + save(results); + return results; +}; + +getAllMetaforecastPredictions(); diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/scripts/iframe-snippet.md b/apps/metaforecast/scripts/iframe-snippet.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..a02882234f --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/scripts/iframe-snippet.md @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +iframe snippet as used on [Global Guessing](https://globalguessing.com/russia-ukraine-forecasts/) + +```html + +``` diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/specification.json b/apps/metaforecast/specification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..c8b6af4f12 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/specification.json @@ -0,0 +1,48 @@ +{ + "id": "Unique string which identifies the question, not optional", + "title": " String, not optional", + "url": " String. A very few number of platforms have a page for more than one prediction.", + "platform": " String, not optional", + "description": " String, optional", + "options-description": " Optional. Saved as a string. If this is a binary question, it gets converted to having Yes/No options. The probabilities should be probabilities, i.e., normalized to 1 first. Eventually I'll want this to also include distributions.", + "options": [ + "description: optional. Some prediction platforms have distributions, rather than probabilities.", + { + "name": "Option 1", + "probability": "Number, 0 to 1", + "type": "for now just 'PROBABILITY', but could include others, like 'DISTRIBUTION'" + }, + { + "name": "Option 2", + "probability": "Number, 0 to 1", + "type": "for now just 'PROBABILITY', but could include others, like 'DISTRIBUTION'" + } + ], + "timestamp": " Timestamp at which metaforecast fetches the probability", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": "required, 0 to 5", + "numforecasts": " optional", + "numforecasters": " optional", + "liquidity": "optional", + "tradevolume": "optional", + "volume": "optional", + "address": "optional", + "other properties": "optional" + }, + "extra": { + "field_description": "arbitrary extra information", + "country_name": " country.country_name", + "regime_type": " country.regime_type", + "month": " country.month", + "year": " country.year", + "leader_name": " country.leader_name", + "month_risk": " country.month_risk", + "annual_risk": " country.annual_risk", + "risk_change_percent": " country.risk_change_percent", + "regime_years": " country.regime_years", + "leader_years": " country.leader_years", + "country_code": " country.country_code", + "country_abb": " country.country_abb", + "superforecastercommentary": "some analysis" + } +} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/Global.d.ts b/apps/metaforecast/src/Global.d.ts new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..9ba1744f06 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/Global.d.ts @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +// Workaround related to: https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/29788 +// https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/29788#issuecomment-1000595524 +declare type StaticImageData = { + src: string; + height: number; + width: number; + placeholder?: string; +}; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/_middleware.ts b/apps/metaforecast/src/_middleware.ts new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..c0f9e69226 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/_middleware.ts @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +import { NextURL } from "next/dist/server/web/next-url"; +import { NextRequest, NextResponse } from "next/server"; + +export async function middleware(req: NextRequest) { + const { pathname, searchParams } = req.nextUrl; + + if (pathname === "/dashboards") { + const dashboardId = searchParams.get("dashboardId"); + if (dashboardId) { + return NextResponse.redirect( + new URL(`/dashboards/view/${dashboardId}`, req.url) + ); + } + } else if (pathname === "/capture") { + return NextResponse.redirect(new URL("/", req.url)); + } else if (pathname === "/secretDashboard") { + const dashboardId = searchParams.get("dashboardId"); + if (dashboardId) { + const url = new URL(`/dashboards/embed/${dashboardId}`, req.url); + const numCols = searchParams.get("numCols"); + if (numCols) { + url.searchParams.set("numCols", numCols); + } + return NextResponse.redirect(url); + } else { + return NextResponse.rewrite(new NextURL("/404", req.url)); + } + } + + return NextResponse.next(); +} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/NavMenu.tsx b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/NavMenu.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..0367d31612 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/NavMenu.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,55 @@ +"use client"; + +import { FC } from 'react'; + +import clsx from 'clsx'; +import Link from 'next/link'; +import { useSelectedLayoutSegment } from 'next/navigation'; + +type MenuItem = { + segment: string | null; + link: string; + title: string; +}; + +const menu: MenuItem[] = [ + { + segment: null, + link: "/", + title: "Search", + }, + { + segment: "tools", + link: "/tools", + title: "Tools", + }, + { + segment: "about", + link: "/about", + title: "About", + }, +]; + +export const NavMenu: FC = () => { + const segment = useSelectedLayoutSegment(); + + return ( +
+ {menu.map((item) => ( + + {item.title} + + ))} +
+ ); +}; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/QueryForm.tsx b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/QueryForm.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..a4663367a4 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/QueryForm.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +import { ChangeEvent, FC } from "react"; + +type Props = { + defaultValue: string; + onChange: (v: string) => void; + placeholder: string; +}; + +export const QueryForm: FC = ({ + defaultValue, + onChange, + placeholder, +}) => { + const handleInputChange = (event: ChangeEvent) => { + event.preventDefault(); + onChange(event.target.value); // In this case, the query, e.g. "COVID.19" + }; + + return ( +
e.preventDefault()} className="w-full"> + e.preventDefault()} + /> +
+ ); +}; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/QuestionCardsList.tsx b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/QuestionCardsList.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..58e0552da2 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/QuestionCardsList.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,32 @@ +"use client"; +import { FC, use } from "react"; + +import { QuestionFragment } from "../../web/fragments.generated"; +import { QuestionCard } from "../../web/questions/components/QuestionCard"; +import { SearchUIContext } from "./SearchUIProvider"; + +type Props = { + results: QuestionFragment[]; +}; + +export const QuestionCardsList: FC = ({ results }) => { + const { showId } = use(SearchUIContext); + + if (!results) { + return null; + } + + return ( + <> + {results.map((result) => ( + + ))} + + ); +}; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/SearchForm.tsx b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/SearchForm.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..25feabbfb3 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/SearchForm.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +"use client"; +import debounce from "lodash/debounce"; +import React, { FC, use, useState } from "react"; + +import { type PlatformConfig } from "@/backend/types"; + +import { MultiSelectPlatform } from "../../web/common/MultiSelectPlatform"; +import { ButtonsForStars } from "../../web/display/ButtonsForStars"; +import { SliderElement } from "../../web/display/SliderElement"; +import { SearchQuery } from "./common"; +import { useSearchQuery, useUpdateSearchQuery } from "./hooks"; +import { QueryForm } from "./QueryForm"; +import { SearchUIContext } from "./SearchUIProvider"; + +export type Props = { + platformsConfig: PlatformConfig[]; +}; + +export const SearchForm: FC = ({ platformsConfig }) => { + // This is used _only_ to set the initial values of the form. + // It shouldn't be used for `updateRoute` calls - the values could be stale because search params update asynchronously. + // In other words, the form is uncontrolled. + const searchQuery = useSearchQuery( + platformsConfig.map((platform) => platform.name) + ); + + /* States */ + const [advancedOptions, showAdvancedOptions] = useState(false); + + const updateSearchQuery = useUpdateSearchQuery(); + + const submit = debounce((patch: Partial) => { + updateSearchQuery(patch); + }, 300); + + const onChangeStars = (value: number) => { + submit({ starsThreshold: value }); + }; + + /* Change the forecast threshold */ + const displayFunctionNumForecasts = (value: number) => { + return "# Forecasts > " + Math.round(value); + }; + const onChangeSliderForNumForecasts = (value: number) => { + submit({ + forecastsThreshold: Math.round(value), + }); + }; + + const onChangeSearchText = (value: string) => { + submit({ + query: value, + }); + }; + + const onChangeSelectedPlatforms = (value: string[]) => { + submit({ + forecastingPlatforms: value, + }); + }; + + const { showId, setShowId } = use(SearchUIContext); + + const onChangeShowId = () => setShowId(!showId); + + return ( +
+ + + {advancedOptions && ( +
+
+
+ +
+
+ +
+
+ +
+ +
+
+ )} +
+ ); +}; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/SearchScreen.tsx b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/SearchScreen.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..52d94ceb95 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/SearchScreen.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,135 @@ +import { + FC, + Suspense, +} from 'react'; + +import Skeleton from 'react-loading-skeleton'; + +import { Card } from '@/web/common/Card'; +import { QuestionFragment } from '@/web/fragments.generated'; +import { getUrqlRscClient } from '@/web/urql'; + +import { SearchQuery } from './common'; +import { + FrontpageDocument, + SearchDocument, +} from './queries.generated'; +import { QuestionCardsList } from './QuestionCardsList'; +import { ShowMore } from './ShowMore'; + +type SearchResult = { + results: QuestionFragment[]; + hasMore: boolean; +}; + +async function getResults(searchQuery: SearchQuery): Promise { + const client = getUrqlRscClient(); + + const withLimit = (results: QuestionFragment[]) => ({ + results: results.slice(0, searchQuery.limit), + hasMore: results.length > searchQuery.limit, + }); + + if (searchQuery.query) { + // search + + const response = await client.query(SearchDocument, { + input: { + ...searchQuery, + limit: searchQuery.limit + 1, + }, + }); + if (!response.data) { + throw new Error(`GraphQL query failed: ${response.error}`); + } + return withLimit(response.data.result); + } else { + // default front page, possibly with platform and stars filters + + // this is necessary because FrontpageDocument does not support filtering, and SearchDocument requires a text query + const filterManually = (results: QuestionFragment[]) => { + let filteredResults = [...results]; + if ( + searchQuery.forecastingPlatforms && + searchQuery.forecastingPlatforms.length > 0 + ) { + filteredResults = filteredResults.filter((result) => + searchQuery.forecastingPlatforms.includes(result.platform.id) + ); + } + if (searchQuery.starsThreshold === 4) { + filteredResults = filteredResults.filter( + (result) => result.qualityIndicators.stars >= 4 + ); + } + if (searchQuery.forecastsThreshold) { + // TODO / FIXME / remove? + } + return filteredResults; + }; + + const response = await client.query(FrontpageDocument, {}); + if (!response.data) { + throw new Error(`GraphQL query failed: ${response.error}`); + } + return withLimit(filterManually(response.data.result)); + } +} + +const LoadingSearchResultsList: FC = () => { + return ( +
+ {[...Array(9)].map((_, index) => ( + + + + ))} +
+ ); +}; + +const SearchResultsList: FC = ({ results, hasMore }) => { + const { length } = results; + + const roundedLength = + length % 3 !== 0 ? length + (3 - (Math.round(length) % 3)) : length; + + return ( + + ); +}; + +const InnerSearchScreen: FC<{ query: SearchQuery }> = async ({ query }) => { + const { results, hasMore } = await getResults(query); + + return ; +}; + +export const SearchScreen: FC<{ query: SearchQuery }> = async ({ query }) => { + return ( + }> + + + ); +}; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/SearchUIProvider.tsx b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/SearchUIProvider.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..cb3eea72bf --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/SearchUIProvider.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +"use client"; + +import { + createContext, + FC, + PropsWithChildren, + useState, +} from 'react'; + +export const SearchUIContext = createContext<{ + showId: boolean; + setShowId: (showId: boolean) => void; +}>({ + showId: false, + setShowId: () => {}, +}); + +export const SearchUIProvider: FC = ({ children }) => { + const [showId, setShowId] = useState(false); + + return ( + + {children} + + ); +}; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/ShowMore.tsx b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/ShowMore.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..a0fd696926 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/ShowMore.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,22 @@ +"use client"; +import { FC } from "react"; + +import { useSearchParams } from "next/navigation"; + +import { defaultLimit } from "./common"; +import { useUpdateSearchQuery } from "./hooks"; + +export const ShowMore: FC = () => { + const updateSearchQuery = useUpdateSearchQuery(); + const searchParams = useSearchParams(); + const limit = Number(searchParams.get("limit")) || defaultLimit; + + return ( + updateSearchQuery({ limit: limit * 2 })} + > + {" Show more,"} + + ); +}; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/about/page.tsx b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/about/page.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..9a5c93ccb5 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/about/page.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,40 @@ +import React from "react"; + +import ReactMarkdown from "react-markdown"; +import gfm from "remark-gfm"; + +import { Card } from "../../../web/common/Card"; + +const readmeMarkdownText = `# About + +This webpage is a search engine for probabilities. Given a query, it searches for relevant questions in various prediction markets and forecasting platforms. For example, try searching for "China", "North Korea", "Semiconductors", "COVID", "Trump", or "X-risk". In addition to search, we also provide various [tools](http://metaforecast.org/tools). + +We are very interested in integrating Metaforecast with other services, and the whole thing is [open source](https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast). So far, Metaforecast has been integrated with [Twitter](https://twitter.com/NunoSempere/status/1433160907308294144), [Fletcher](https://fletcher.fun/), [GlobalGuessing](https://globalguessing.com/russia-ukraine-forecasts/) and previously [Elicit](https://elicit.org/). + +You can read a longer writeup with thoughts and motivations [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tEo5oXeSNcB3sYr8m/introducing-metaforecast-a-forecast-aggregator-and-search), and an update thereto [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5hugQzRhdGYc6ParJ/metaforecast-update-better-search-capture-functionality-more). + +## Advanced search +If your initial search doesn't succeed, you might want to try tinkering with the advanced search. In particular, try increasing or decreasing the stars threshold, or changing the number of search results shown. + +## What are stars, and how are they computed? + +Star ratings—e.g. ★★★☆☆—are an indicator of the quality of an aggregate forecast for a question. These ratings currently try to reflect my own best judgment and the best judgment of forecasting experts I've asked, based on our collective experience forecasting on these platforms. Thus, stars have a strong subjective component which could be formalized and refined in the future. You can see the code used to decide how many stars to assign according to platform and various quality indicators [here](https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast/blob/master/src/utils/stars.js) + +Also note that, whatever other redeeming features they might have, prediction markets rarely go above 95% or below 5%. + +## Who is behind this? +[Nuño Sempere](https://nunosempere.github.io), with help from Ozzie Gooen, from the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/). We both have several other forecasting-related projects, but one which might be particularly worth highlighting is this [forecasting newsletter](http://forecasting.substack.com/). + +`; + +export default function AboutPage() { + return ( + + + + ); +} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/common.ts b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/common.ts new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..2c20379a58 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/common.ts @@ -0,0 +1,52 @@ +// code that can be used both on frontend and backend +export const defaultLimit = 21; + +export type SearchQuery = { + limit: number; + query: string; + starsThreshold: number; + forecastsThreshold: number; + forecastingPlatforms: string[]; // platform names +}; + +// it's not possible to use `forecastingPlatforms` on the frontend, because it relies on the backend code +export const defaultSearchQuery: Omit = { + limit: 21, + query: "", + starsThreshold: 2, + forecastsThreshold: 0, +}; + +export function searchParamsToQuery( + searchParams: { + [key: string]: string | string[] | undefined; + }, + defaultForecastingPlatforms: string[] +): SearchQuery { + // TODO - validate with zod + const searchQuery: SearchQuery = { + ...defaultSearchQuery, + forecastingPlatforms: defaultForecastingPlatforms, + }; + + if (searchParams.query) { + searchQuery.query = String(searchParams.query); + } + if (searchParams.starsThreshold) { + searchQuery.starsThreshold = Number(searchParams.starsThreshold); + } + if (searchParams.forecastsThreshold !== undefined) { + searchQuery.forecastsThreshold = Number(searchParams.forecastsThreshold); + } + if (searchParams.forecastingPlatforms !== undefined) { + searchQuery.forecastingPlatforms = String( + searchParams.forecastingPlatforms + ).split("|"); + } + + if (searchParams.limit) { + searchQuery.limit = Number(searchParams.limit); + } + + return searchQuery; +} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/dashboards/page.tsx b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/dashboards/page.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..f1df6fb969 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/dashboards/page.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,40 @@ +"use client"; +import { useRouter } from "next/navigation"; +import { useMutation } from "urql"; + +import { LineHeader } from "../../../web/common/LineHeader"; +import { CreateDashboardDocument } from "../../../web/dashboards/queries.generated"; +import { DashboardCreator } from "../../../web/display/DashboardCreator"; + +export default function () { + const router = useRouter(); + const [createDashboardResult, createDashboard] = useMutation( + CreateDashboardDocument + ); + + const handleSubmit = async (data: any) => { + const result = await createDashboard({ + input: { + title: data.title, + description: data.description, + creator: data.creator, + ids: data.ids, + }, + }); + const dashboardId = result?.data?.result?.dashboard?.id; + if (!dashboardId) { + throw new Error("Couldn't create a dashboard"); // TODO - toaster + } + router.push(`/dashboards/view/${dashboardId}`); + }; + + return ( +
+ Create a dashboard! + +
+ +
+
+ ); +} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/dashboards/view/[id]/page.tsx b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/dashboards/view/[id]/page.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..b5c68c8beb --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/dashboards/view/[id]/page.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,85 @@ +import Link from "next/link"; +import { notFound } from "next/navigation"; + +import { QuestionCardsList } from "@/app/(nav)/QuestionCardsList"; +import { InfoBox } from "@/web/common/InfoBox"; +import { LineHeader } from "@/web/common/LineHeader"; +import { + DashboardByIdDocument, + DashboardFragment, +} from "@/web/dashboards/queries.generated"; +import { getUrqlRscClient } from "@/web/urql"; + +const DashboardMetadata: React.FC<{ dashboard: DashboardFragment }> = ({ + dashboard, +}) => ( +
+ {dashboard.title ? ( +

+ {dashboard.title} +

+ ) : null} + + {dashboard.creator ? ( +

+ Created by:{" "} + {dashboard.creator === "Clay Graubard" ? ( + <> + @ + + Clay Graubard + + + ) : ( + dashboard.creator + )} +

+ ) : null} + + {dashboard.description ? ( +

+ {dashboard.description} +

+ ) : null} +
+); + +/* Body */ +export default async function ({ + params, +}: { + params: Promise<{ id: string }>; +}) { + const { id: dashboardId } = await params; + const client = getUrqlRscClient(); + + const dashboard = ( + await client.query(DashboardByIdDocument, { id: dashboardId }).toPromise() + ).data?.result; + + if (!dashboard) { + notFound(); + } + + return ( +
+ +
+ +
+ +
+ Dashboards cannot be changed after they are created. +
+ + + + Create your own dashboard + + +
+ ); +} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/hooks.ts b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/hooks.ts new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..d20f10195d --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/hooks.ts @@ -0,0 +1,39 @@ +import "client-only"; + +import { usePathname, useRouter, useSearchParams } from "next/navigation"; + +import { searchParamsToQuery, SearchQuery } from "./common"; + +// get a function that allows to update the search query +// used by SearchForm +export function useUpdateSearchQuery() { + const router = useRouter(); + + const currentParams = useSearchParams(); + const pathname = usePathname(); + + return (patch: Partial) => { + const params = new URLSearchParams(currentParams); + + for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(patch)) { + if (key === "forecastingPlatforms") { + params.set(key, (value as string[]).join("|")); + } else { + params.set(key, String(value)); + } + // TODO - filter out default values? + } + + router.replace(`${pathname}?${params}`, { scroll: false }); + }; +} + +export function useSearchQuery( + defaultForecastingPlatforms: string[] +): SearchQuery { + const currentParams = useSearchParams(); + return searchParamsToQuery( + Object.fromEntries(currentParams), + defaultForecastingPlatforms + ); +} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/layout.tsx b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/layout.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..8cc5a3af45 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/layout.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,56 @@ +import React, { + FC, + PropsWithChildren, +} from 'react'; + +import Link from 'next/link'; + +import { ErrorBoundary } from '../../web/common/ErrorBoundary'; +import { Logo2 } from '../../web/icons'; +import { NavMenu } from './NavMenu'; + +const Layout: FC = ({ children }) => { + // The correct way to do this would be by passing a prop to Layout, + // and to get the last updating using server side props. + + return ( +
+
+ +
+ +
+ {children} +
+ +
+
+
+ ); +}; + +export default Layout; diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/page.tsx b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/page.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..93932fa847 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/page.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ +import React from 'react'; + +import { + getPlatforms, + getPlatformsConfig, +} from '@/backend/platforms/registry'; + +import { searchParamsToQuery } from './common'; +import { SearchForm } from './SearchForm'; +import { SearchScreen } from './SearchScreen'; +import { SearchUIProvider } from './SearchUIProvider'; + +export default async function IndexPage({ + searchParams: searchParamsPromise, +}: { + searchParams: Promise<{ [key: string]: string | string[] | undefined }>; +}) { + const searchParams = await searchParamsPromise; + const searchQuery = searchParamsToQuery( + searchParams, + getPlatforms().map((platform) => platform.name) + ); + + return ( + + + + + ); +} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/queries.generated.tsx b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/queries.generated.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..ba3b63bc13 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/queries.generated.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +import * as Types from '../../graphql/types.generated'; + +import { TypedDocumentNode as DocumentNode } from '@graphql-typed-document-node/core'; +export type FrontpageQueryVariables = Types.Exact<{ [key: string]: never; }>; + + +export type FrontpageQuery = { __typename?: 'Query', result: Array<{ __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, fetched: number, visualization?: string | null, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } }> }; + +export type SearchQueryVariables = Types.Exact<{ + input: Types.SearchInput; +}>; + + +export type SearchQuery = { __typename?: 'Query', result: Array<{ __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, fetched: number, visualization?: string | null, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } }> }; + + +export const FrontpageDocument = {"kind":"Document","definitions":[{"kind":"OperationDefinition","operation":"query","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Frontpage"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","alias":{"kind":"Name","value":"result"},"name":{"kind":"Name","value":"frontpage"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"FragmentSpread","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"}}]}}]}},{"kind":"FragmentDefinition","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"},"typeCondition":{"kind":"NamedType","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"}},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"url"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"title"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"description"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"fetched"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"options"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"name"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"probability"}}]}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"platform"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"label"}}]}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"qualityIndicators"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"stars"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"numForecasts"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"numForecasters"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"volume"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"spread"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"sharesVolume"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"openInterest"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"liquidity"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"tradeVolume"}}]}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"visualization"}}]}}]} as unknown as DocumentNode; +export const SearchDocument = {"kind":"Document","definitions":[{"kind":"OperationDefinition","operation":"query","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Search"},"variableDefinitions":[{"kind":"VariableDefinition","variable":{"kind":"Variable","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"input"}},"type":{"kind":"NonNullType","type":{"kind":"NamedType","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"SearchInput"}}}}],"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","alias":{"kind":"Name","value":"result"},"name":{"kind":"Name","value":"searchQuestions"},"arguments":[{"kind":"Argument","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"input"},"value":{"kind":"Variable","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"input"}}}],"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"FragmentSpread","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"}}]}}]}},{"kind":"FragmentDefinition","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"},"typeCondition":{"kind":"NamedType","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"}},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"url"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"title"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"description"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"fetched"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"options"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"name"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"probability"}}]}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"platform"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"label"}}]}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"qualityIndicators"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"stars"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"numForecasts"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"numForecasters"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"volume"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"spread"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"sharesVolume"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"openInterest"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"liquidity"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"tradeVolume"}}]}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"visualization"}}]}}]} as unknown as DocumentNode; \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/queries.graphql b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/queries.graphql new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..8b62a0e2f4 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/queries.graphql @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +query Frontpage { + result: frontpage { + ...Question + } +} + +query Search($input: SearchInput!) { + result: searchQuestions(input: $input) { + ...Question + } +} diff --git a/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/questions/[id]/EmbedSection.tsx b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/questions/[id]/EmbedSection.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..7332f5deb8 --- /dev/null +++ b/apps/metaforecast/src/app/(nav)/questions/[id]/EmbedSection.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +"use client"; +import { FC } from "react"; + +import { Collapsible } from "@/web/common/Collapsible"; +import { CopyParagraph } from "@/web/common/CopyParagraph"; +import { QuestionWithHistoryFragment } from "@/web/fragments.generated"; +import { getBasePath } from "@/web/utils"; + +import { Section } from "./Section"; + +export const EmbedSection: FC<{ question: QuestionWithHistoryFragment }> = ({ + question, +}) => { + const url = `${getBasePath()}/questions/embed/${question.id}`; + return ( +
+ `} + buttonText="Copy HTML" + /> +
+ + {() =>