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Power-Prediction

Produce a temporal prediction of overall substation power generation & consumption.

Requirements

  • Perform literature review
  • Be able to predict the next hour's consumption/generation with >90% accuracy
  • Be able to predict up to 12 hours from current period

Input

  • Missing Data? Use a polynomial fit of other points to fill it in
  • Submodels for discrete power sources. (e.g. unique submodel for three different types of solar panels)

Output

Report for each substation:

  • Generation (single number in KW/h)
  • Consumption (single number in KW/h)
  • Accuracy
  • Error
  • Deviation and other statistics that we may find useful for validation

Data

  • Freq of 10 m, for one year
  • wind direction & amplitude (No direct measurement from wind turbines)
  • diesel generator output can be considered the demand, little buffer
  • temperature of environment (affects power generation from solar and power consumption from populace)

Consider:

  • school days (consumes more power than usual)
  • build dynamically so that more sources of energy can be added to model

Tips

  • Pull any additional data we may need
  • Angle of the sun
  • Utilize momentum in calculations (SMA for the previous hours leading up to the estimation time)

Credits