12. Bayesian Auto-Regressive Time Series Analysis.ipynb

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    {
     "name": "stderr",
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     "text": [
      "/usr/lib/python3/dist-packages/h5py/__init__.py:36: FutureWarning: Conversion of the second argument of issubdtype from `float` to `np.floating` is deprecated. In future, it will be treated as `np.float64 == np.dtype(float).type`.\n",
      "  from ._conv import register_converters as _register_converters\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import pymc3 as pm\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "ename": "ModuleNotFoundError",
     "evalue": "No module named 'fbprophet'",
     "output_type": "error",
     "traceback": [
      "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m",
      "\u001b[0;31mModuleNotFoundError\u001b[0m                       Traceback (most recent call last)",
      "\u001b[0;32m<ipython-input-12-27ada42098e3>\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m<module>\u001b[0;34m()\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m      6\u001b[0m \u001b[0;32mimport\u001b[0m \u001b[0mtheano\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m      7\u001b[0m \u001b[0;32mimport\u001b[0m \u001b[0mtheano\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mtensor\u001b[0m \u001b[0;32mas\u001b[0m \u001b[0mtt\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 8\u001b[0;31m \u001b[0;32mfrom\u001b[0m \u001b[0mfbprophet\u001b[0m \u001b[0;32mimport\u001b[0m \u001b[0mProphet\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m",
      "\u001b[0;31mModuleNotFoundError\u001b[0m: No module named 'fbprophet'"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import pymc3 as pm\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "from scipy import stats\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import theano\n",
    "import theano.tensor as tt\n",
    "from fbprophet import Prophet"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
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  {
   "cell_type": "code",
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    {
     "ename": "KeyError",
     "evalue": "'Year'",
     "output_type": "error",
     "traceback": [
      "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m",
      "\u001b[0;31mKeyError\u001b[0m                                  Traceback (most recent call last)",
      "\u001b[0;32m/usr/lib/python3/dist-packages/pandas/core/indexes/base.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mget_loc\u001b[0;34m(self, key, method, tolerance)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   2524\u001b[0m             \u001b[0;32mtry\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m:\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m-> 2525\u001b[0;31m                 \u001b[0;32mreturn\u001b[0m \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_engine\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mget_loc\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mkey\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[1;32m   2526\u001b[0m             \u001b[0;32mexcept\u001b[0m \u001b[0mKeyError\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m:\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;32mpandas/_libs/index.pyx\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mpandas._libs.index.IndexEngine.get_loc\u001b[0;34m()\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;32mpandas/_libs/index.pyx\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mpandas._libs.index.IndexEngine.get_loc\u001b[0;34m()\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;32mpandas/_libs/hashtable_class_helper.pxi\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mpandas._libs.hashtable.PyObjectHashTable.get_item\u001b[0;34m()\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;32mpandas/_libs/hashtable_class_helper.pxi\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mpandas._libs.hashtable.PyObjectHashTable.get_item\u001b[0;34m()\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;31mKeyError\u001b[0m: 'Year'",
      "\nDuring handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:\n",
      "\u001b[0;31mKeyError\u001b[0m                                  Traceback (most recent call last)",
      "\u001b[0;32m<ipython-input-10-b9c7224e3785>\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m<module>\u001b[0;34m()\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 1\u001b[0;31m \u001b[0mdf\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mindex\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mdf\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m[\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m'Year'\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m]\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[1;32m      2\u001b[0m \u001b[0mdf\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mdrop\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m'Year'\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m,\u001b[0m\u001b[0maxis\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m\u001b[0;36m1\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m,\u001b[0m\u001b[0minplace\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m\u001b[0;32mTrue\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m      3\u001b[0m \u001b[0mdf\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mdf\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0msum\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0;36m1\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;32m/usr/lib/python3/dist-packages/pandas/core/frame.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m__getitem__\u001b[0;34m(self, key)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   2137\u001b[0m             \u001b[0;32mreturn\u001b[0m \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_getitem_multilevel\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mkey\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   2138\u001b[0m         \u001b[0;32melse\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m:\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m-> 2139\u001b[0;31m             \u001b[0;32mreturn\u001b[0m \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_getitem_column\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mkey\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[1;32m   2140\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   2141\u001b[0m     \u001b[0;32mdef\u001b[0m \u001b[0m_getitem_column\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0mkey\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m:\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;32m/usr/lib/python3/dist-packages/pandas/core/frame.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m_getitem_column\u001b[0;34m(self, key)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   2144\u001b[0m         \u001b[0;31m# get column\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   2145\u001b[0m         \u001b[0;32mif\u001b[0m \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mcolumns\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mis_unique\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m:\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m-> 2146\u001b[0;31m             \u001b[0;32mreturn\u001b[0m \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_get_item_cache\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mkey\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[1;32m   2147\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   2148\u001b[0m         \u001b[0;31m# duplicate columns & possible reduce dimensionality\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;32m/usr/lib/python3/dist-packages/pandas/core/generic.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m_get_item_cache\u001b[0;34m(self, item)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   1840\u001b[0m         \u001b[0mres\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mcache\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mget\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mitem\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   1841\u001b[0m         \u001b[0;32mif\u001b[0m \u001b[0mres\u001b[0m \u001b[0;32mis\u001b[0m \u001b[0;32mNone\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m:\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m-> 1842\u001b[0;31m             \u001b[0mvalues\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_data\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mget\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mitem\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[1;32m   1843\u001b[0m             \u001b[0mres\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_box_item_values\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mitem\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0mvalues\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   1844\u001b[0m             \u001b[0mcache\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m[\u001b[0m\u001b[0mitem\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m]\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mres\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;32m/usr/lib/python3/dist-packages/pandas/core/internals.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mget\u001b[0;34m(self, item, fastpath)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   3841\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   3842\u001b[0m             \u001b[0;32mif\u001b[0m \u001b[0;32mnot\u001b[0m \u001b[0misna\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mitem\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m:\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m-> 3843\u001b[0;31m                 \u001b[0mloc\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mitems\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mget_loc\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mitem\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[1;32m   3844\u001b[0m             \u001b[0;32melse\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m:\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   3845\u001b[0m                 \u001b[0mindexer\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mnp\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0marange\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mlen\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mitems\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m[\u001b[0m\u001b[0misna\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mitems\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m]\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;32m/usr/lib/python3/dist-packages/pandas/core/indexes/base.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mget_loc\u001b[0;34m(self, key, method, tolerance)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   2525\u001b[0m                 \u001b[0;32mreturn\u001b[0m \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_engine\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mget_loc\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mkey\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   2526\u001b[0m             \u001b[0;32mexcept\u001b[0m \u001b[0mKeyError\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m:\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m-> 2527\u001b[0;31m                 \u001b[0;32mreturn\u001b[0m \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_engine\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mget_loc\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_maybe_cast_indexer\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mkey\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[1;32m   2528\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   2529\u001b[0m         \u001b[0mindexer\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mget_indexer\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m[\u001b[0m\u001b[0mkey\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m]\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0mmethod\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m\u001b[0mmethod\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0mtolerance\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m\u001b[0mtolerance\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;32mpandas/_libs/index.pyx\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mpandas._libs.index.IndexEngine.get_loc\u001b[0;34m()\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;32mpandas/_libs/index.pyx\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mpandas._libs.index.IndexEngine.get_loc\u001b[0;34m()\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;32mpandas/_libs/hashtable_class_helper.pxi\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mpandas._libs.hashtable.PyObjectHashTable.get_item\u001b[0;34m()\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;32mpandas/_libs/hashtable_class_helper.pxi\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mpandas._libs.hashtable.PyObjectHashTable.get_item\u001b[0;34m()\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[0;31mKeyError\u001b[0m: 'Year'"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df.index = df['Year']\n",
    "df.drop('Year',axis=1,inplace=True)\n",
    "df = df.sum(1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
 ],
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