diff --git a/macro/macro_parameters.py b/macro/macro_parameters.py index 00e6829..069853f 100644 --- a/macro/macro_parameters.py +++ b/macro/macro_parameters.py @@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ ###################### # Change Defaults # -###################### +# ##################### sharkfin_portfolio = init_portfolio.copy() sharkfin_portfolio["cycles"] = 0 # 0 for infinite horizon @@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ ###################### # Annual Parameters # -###################### +# ##################### annual_params = sharkfin_portfolio.copy() annual_params["CRRA"] = 5 @@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ ###################### # Quarterly Parameters # -###################### +# ##################### quarterly_params = annual_params.copy() quarterly_params["DiscFac"] = annual_params["DiscFac"] ** (1 / 4) @@ -36,3 +36,36 @@ quarterly_params["PermShkStd"] = list(np.asarray(annual_params["PermShkStd"]) / 2) quarterly_params["TranShkStd"] = list(4 * np.asarray(annual_params["TranShkStd"])) quarterly_params["aXtraMax"] = 4 * annual_params["aXtraMax"] + +############################################################################### +# --- Computing the risky expectations from the dividend statistics + +from sharkfin.utilities import price_dividend_ratio_random_walk, lucas_expected_rate_of_return, ror_quarterly, sig_quarterly + + +"" +def expected_quarterly_returns(dgr, dst): + # dgr - daily dividend growth rate + # dst - daily dividend standard deviation + + pdr = price_dividend_ratio_random_walk( + quarterly_params["DiscFac"], + annual_params["CRRA"], + dgr, + dst, + 60 + ) + + (ror, sig) = lucas_expected_rate_of_return(pdr, dgr, dst) + return ror_quarterly(ror, 60), sig_quarterly(sig, 60) + + + +"" +expected_quarterly_returns(1.0000882, 0.00258) + +"" + + +"" +