New betting strategy for the academy

[kongzii]

A new betting strategy migrated from https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling/blob/main/prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/betting_strategies/market_moving.py.

The idea is simple: How much and on what outcome do we need to bet, if we want to move market's probability to X? (credits for original implementation to https://github.com/evangriffiths in our PMAT repository 🥇 )

Output from running example.py:

current_p_yes=0.91
target_p_yes=0.85, new_p_yes=0.00, bet_outcome_index=1, bet_amount=33032215489420764044200
target_p_yes=0.85, new_p_yes=0.00, bet_outcome_index=1, bet_amount=16516107744710382022100
target_p_yes=0.85, new_p_yes=0.00, bet_outcome_index=1, bet_amount=8258053872355191011050
target_p_yes=0.85, new_p_yes=0.00, bet_outcome_index=1, bet_amount=4129026936177595505525
target_p_yes=0.85, new_p_yes=0.01, bet_outcome_index=1, bet_amount=2064513468088797752762
target_p_yes=0.85, new_p_yes=0.03, bet_outcome_index=1, bet_amount=1032256734044398876381
target_p_yes=0.85, new_p_yes=0.10, bet_outcome_index=1, bet_amount=516128367022199438190
target_p_yes=0.85, new_p_yes=0.26, bet_outcome_index=1, bet_amount=258064183511099719095
target_p_yes=0.85, new_p_yes=0.50, bet_outcome_index=1, bet_amount=129032091755549859547
target_p_yes=0.85, new_p_yes=0.70, bet_outcome_index=1, bet_amount=64516045877774929773
target_p_yes=0.85, new_p_yes=0.81, bet_outcome_index=1, bet_amount=32258022938887464886
target_p_yes=0.85, new_p_yes=0.86, bet_outcome_index=1, bet_amount=16129011469443732443
target_p_yes=0.85, new_p_yes=0.84, bet_outcome_index=1, bet_amount=24193517204165598664
target_p_yes=0.85, new_p_yes=0.85, bet_outcome_index=1, bet_amount=20161264336804665553
---
current_p_yes=0.91
target_p_yes=0.95, new_p_yes=1.00, bet_outcome_index=0, bet_amount=33032215489420764044200
target_p_yes=0.95, new_p_yes=1.00, bet_outcome_index=0, bet_amount=16516107744710382022100
target_p_yes=0.95, new_p_yes=1.00, bet_outcome_index=0, bet_amount=8258053872355191011050
target_p_yes=0.95, new_p_yes=1.00, bet_outcome_index=0, bet_amount=4129026936177595505525
target_p_yes=0.95, new_p_yes=1.00, bet_outcome_index=0, bet_amount=2064513468088797752762
target_p_yes=0.95, new_p_yes=0.99, bet_outcome_index=0, bet_amount=1032256734044398876381
target_p_yes=0.95, new_p_yes=0.97, bet_outcome_index=0, bet_amount=516128367022199438190
target_p_yes=0.95, new_p_yes=0.95, bet_outcome_index=0, bet_amount=258064183511099719095

[kongzii]

Based on the comment from https://github.com/valory-xyz/trader/pull/201/files, I executed

autonomy ipfs add

inside of trader/packages/kongzii/betting_strategies/market_moving_bet, but I'm getting this error:

Processing package: /Users/peter/Dropbox/Projects/Gnosis/trader/packages/kongzii/betting_strategies/market_moving_bet
Traceback (most recent call last):
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/bin/autonomy", line 8, in <module>
    sys.exit(cli())
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/click/core.py", line 1126, in __call__
    return self.main(*args, **kwargs)
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/click/core.py", line 1051, in main
    rv = self.invoke(ctx)
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/click/core.py", line 1657, in invoke
    return _process_result(sub_ctx.command.invoke(sub_ctx))
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/click/core.py", line 1657, in invoke
    return _process_result(sub_ctx.command.invoke(sub_ctx))
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/click/core.py", line 1393, in invoke
    return ctx.invoke(self.callback, **ctx.params)
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/click/core.py", line 752, in invoke
    return __callback(*args, **kwargs)
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/click/decorators.py", line 26, in new_func
    return f(get_current_context(), *args, **kwargs)
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/aea_cli_ipfs/core.py", line 85, in add
    package_hash = register_package(ipfs_tool, dir_path, no_pin)
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/aea_cli_ipfs/core.py", line 178, in register_package
    register_item_to_local_registry(
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/aea_cli_ipfs/registry.py", line 150, in register_item_to_local_registry
    registry_data[f"{item_type}s"][str(public_id)] = str(package_hash)
KeyError: 'customs'

can someone give me an advice what to do, please?

[dvilelaf]

Please follow the required package structure (see this as reference).
trader/packages/<author>/customs/<package_name>

[kongzii]

Moved, sorry I missed that. Is this repository-design decision, or is it enforced by the framework?

But, unfortunately, I'm still getting the error above :(

Processing package: /Users/peter/Dropbox/Projects/Gnosis/trader/packages/kongzii/customs/market_moving_bet
Traceback (most recent call last):
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/bin/autonomy", line 8, in <module>
    sys.exit(cli())
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/click/core.py", line 1126, in __call__
    return self.main(*args, **kwargs)
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/click/core.py", line 1051, in main
    rv = self.invoke(ctx)
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/click/core.py", line 1657, in invoke
    return _process_result(sub_ctx.command.invoke(sub_ctx))
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/click/core.py", line 1657, in invoke
    return _process_result(sub_ctx.command.invoke(sub_ctx))
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/click/core.py", line 1393, in invoke
    return ctx.invoke(self.callback, **ctx.params)
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/click/core.py", line 752, in invoke
    return __callback(*args, **kwargs)
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/click/decorators.py", line 26, in new_func
    return f(get_current_context(), *args, **kwargs)
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/aea_cli_ipfs/core.py", line 85, in add
    package_hash = register_package(ipfs_tool, dir_path, no_pin)
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/aea_cli_ipfs/core.py", line 178, in register_package
    register_item_to_local_registry(
  File "/Users/peter/Library/Caches/pypoetry/virtualenvs/trader-ZP1nLyMi-py3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/aea_cli_ipfs/registry.py", line 150, in register_item_to_local_registry
    registry_data[f"{item_type}s"][str(public_id)] = str(package_hash)
KeyError: 'customs'