This repository contains the results of a research project I conducted to determine the actual performance of a trading person that was selling thir trading signals (at the time, I'm not sure if they're still in business).
At the time, I was curious to determine whether it'd be possible to pass a prop firm challenge using such paid signals, but I was a bit skeptical of the results claimed by this individual.
I built a simple backtesting engine, which parsed the Telegram messages into serialized trade signals, and then ran it through the engine to determine the result of the trade. I then put the results into a notebook to play with the numbers and determine the results.
These metrics were taken into consideration:
- Overall cumulative results
- Monthly cumulative results
- Total drawdown
- Daily drawdown
- Trading frequency
- Custom "Challenge Pass" metric
- And more
You can check out the notebook here.
These are some example screenshots from the analysis:
The analysis was somewhat inconclusive, as there wasn't enough evidence to determine that they were lying or that they were really profitable as they claimed. I think I can say with some degree of certainty that prop firm challenges are strategically too hard to be beaten by traders in general, let alone by a distributed strategy of doubtful performance.