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What is this?

This repository contains the results of a research project I conducted to determine the actual performance of a trading person that was selling thir trading signals (at the time, I'm not sure if they're still in business).

Why?

At the time, I was curious to determine whether it'd be possible to pass a prop firm challenge using such paid signals, but I was a bit skeptical of the results claimed by this individual.

How?

I built a simple backtesting engine, which parsed the Telegram messages into serialized trade signals, and then ran it through the engine to determine the result of the trade. I then put the results into a notebook to play with the numbers and determine the results.

These metrics were taken into consideration:

  • Overall cumulative results
  • Monthly cumulative results
  • Total drawdown
  • Daily drawdown
  • Trading frequency
  • Custom "Challenge Pass" metric
  • And more

You can check out the notebook here.

Screenshots

These are some example screenshots from the analysis:

Cumulative Result Example Drawdown Example Streak Distribution Example

So what did you find?

The analysis was somewhat inconclusive, as there wasn't enough evidence to determine that they were lying or that they were really profitable as they claimed. I think I can say with some degree of certainty that prop firm challenges are strategically too hard to be beaten by traders in general, let alone by a distributed strategy of doubtful performance.