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Today, we know more about the universe than about our society. It's time to use the power of information technology to explore social and economic life on Earth and discover options for a sustainable future. Together, we can manage the challenges of the 21st century, combining the best of all knowledge.
The Apocalypse Dynamics simulator is an Articial Intelligence program aimed at saving the world.
As a reminder, intelligence has been defined in many ways like the capacity for logic, understanding, learning, reasoning, planning, critical thinking, and problem-solving. More generally, it can be described as the ability to process information to achieve goals. Intelligence in machines is called artificial intelligence, which is commonly implemented in computer systems using programs and, sometimes, specialized hardware.
Apocalypse Dynamics is developed though collective human intelligence thanks to open source softwares.
The ultimate goal of the Apocalypse Dynamics software is to understand and manage complex, global, socially interactive systems, with a focus on sustainability and resilience. Revealing the hidden laws and processes underlying societies probably constitutes the most pressing scientific grand challenge of our century and is equally important for the development of novel robust, trustworthy and adaptive information and communication technologies (ICT), based on socially inspired paradigms.
We think that integrating ICT, Complexity Science and the Social Sciences will create a paradigm shift, facilitating a symbiotic co-evolution of ICT and society. Data from our Apocalypse Dynamics system will be leveraged to develop models of techno-socio-economic-environmental systems. In turn, insights from these models will inform the development of a new generation of socially adaptive, self-organized ICT systems.
The Apocalypse Dynamics project wants science to catch up with the speed at which new problems and opportunities are arising in our changing world as consequences of globalization, technological, demographic and environmental change, and make a contribution to strengthening our societies’ adaptiveness, resilience, and sustainability. The Apocalypse Dynamics project will do so by leveraging existing scientific models and combining these with the best established methods in areas like multi-scale computer modelling, social super-computing, large-scale data mining and participatory platforms.
Apocalypse Dynamics is based on the famous World 3 model; which is a model for computer simulation of interactions between population, industrial growth, food production and limits in the ecosystems of the earth. The initial model was produced and used by a Club of Rome study that produced the world 3 model and the book "The Limits to Growth" (1972). The creators of the model were Dennis Meadows, project manager, and a team of 16 researchers.
The model was documented in the book "Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World". It added new features to Jay W. Forrester's World2 model. Since World3 was originally created, it has had minor tweaks to get to the World3/91 model used in the book Beyond the Limits, later improved to get the World3/2000 model distributed by the Institute for Policy and Social Science Research and finally the World3/2004 model used in the book "Limits to Growth: the 30 year update".
World3 is one of several global models that have been generated throughout the world (Mesarovic/Pestel Model, Bariloche Model, MOIRA Model, SARU Model, FUGI Model) and is probably the model that generated the spark for all later models.
Using a methodology developed by pioneering systems-scientist Jay Forrester, and under the supervision of Dennis Meadows , a group of researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology produced the first Report to the Club of Rome. Considered a classic in the sustainability movement, "The Limits to Growth" was the first study to question the viability of continued growth in the human ecological footprint.
The ApocalypseDynamics library permits users to model a sustainable future according to the principles of system dynamics originated by J.W. Forrester in the 1960's. The field of system dynamics is well established, hence, the novelty and value of this library is not to be seen in the modeling principles of system dynamics themselves, rather, in the combination of system dynamics modeling with the Apocalypse predicament.
Modelica has object-oriented programming, multi-formalism and physical modeling capabilities. The ApocalypseDynamics library will benefit of the collaborative development of new features and back-tests of the models.
The documentation is included in the source code package.
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SystemDynamics v2.1 (2013-10-16)
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SystemDynamics 2.1is based on SystemDynamics Version 2.0 that was developed by Prof. Cellier and his students, and has been primarily updated in order for it to work with MSL 3.2.1. The diagrams have been corrected from the old graphical definitions and some icons have been added.
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Version v2.0 (2007-09-13)
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SystemDynamics 2.0constitutes a completely reworked release of the SystemDynamics library. This version is based in part on Version 1.0, and in part on a different and independently created version of a System Dynamics library for Dymola/Modelica, a version that had been developed by Prof. Cellier and his students at the University of Arizona, and had been around in a much reduced form since 2001.
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- Version v1.0 (2002-04-09)
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SystemDynamics 1.0constituted the first official release of the SystemDynamics library. That version was created by Stefan Fabricius in 2002, at a time when Stefan worked as a Ph.D. student at ETH Zurich.
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Apocalypse Dynamics is a trademark of Abak Consulting Gmbh.
Corresponding Author: Arnaud Dorthe
Other Main Author: Prof. François Cellier, Dr. Stefan Fabricius, Prof. Dennis L. Meadows, Prof. Donella H. Meadows, Dr. Jorgen Randers, Dr. William W. Behrens III, Dr Roger F. Naill, Prof. Jay W. Forester, Alexander King, Aurelio Peccei, Thomas Malthus, Jesus of Nazareth, The Maya