COVID-19 SUPPRESSION USING A TESTING/QUARANTINE STRATEGY: A multi-paradigm simulation approach based on a SEIRTQ compartmental model
This repository contains the mutliparadigm simulations that produced the results presented in this paper published in the proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference 2022.
The ODE simulations where performed using the cv19gm library
The agents based simulations where performed using the Net-Logo library, version 6.1.1.
During the current COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions represent the first-line of defense to tackle the dispersion of the disease. One of the main non-pharmaceutical interventions is testing, which consists on the application of clinical tests aiming to detect and quarantine infected people. Here, we extended the SEIR compartmental model into a SEIRTQ model, adding new states representing the testing (T) and quarantine (Q) dynamics. In doing so, we have characterized the effects of a set of testing and quarantine strategies using a multi-paradigm approach, based on ordinary differential equations and agent based modelling. Our simulations suggest that iterative testing over 10% of the population could effectively suppress the spread of COVID-19 when testing results are delivered within 1 day. Under these conditions, a reduction of at least 95% of the infected individuals can be achieved, along with a drastic reduction in the number of super-spreaders.