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Impact-of-the-COVID-19 Pandemic: Modeling and Forecasting using Affectedness Variables

These notebooks represent the calculation of selected affectedness variables to model and forecast the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results are part of the "Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Pandemie" results report, which was prepared by the Pricing Methodology Working Group and can be found at the DAV website. This report deals with issues of modeling and forecasting in the design of tariffs, taking into account the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It concerns actuaries in property-casualty insurance in the context of the execution of actuarial tasks in the design of tariffs.


The German Association of Actuaries (Deutsche Aktuarvereinigunge.V., DAV) is the professional representation of all actuaries in Germany. It was founded in 1993 and has more than 6,000 members today. More than 700 members are involved in thirteen committees and in over 60 working groups as a voluntary commitment.

The Data Science Challenge is an initiative of the Actuarial Data Science Committee of the DAV to encourage the engagement with machine learning and data science within the insurance industry.

Please note that the repositories provided on GitHub are published by the DAV. The content of linked websites is the sole responsibility of their operators. The DAV is not responsible for the code and data linked and referred to in the repositories.

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