Figure TS.12 shows land-related changes relative to the 1850-1900 as a function of global warming levels.
Figure subpanels
The figure has six panels, with input data provided for all panels in subdirectories named Extremes, ModelSnow/sncbin and WaterCyclePanels.
List of data provided This dataset contains:
- Relative frequency and intensity changes of 1-in-10- and 1-in-50-year extreme daily heat (TXx) in CMIP6 models (ScenarioMIP) with respect to 1850-1900. Medians and 5, 17, 83, 95 percentiles.
- Relative frequency and intensity changes of 1-in-10- and 1-in-50-year extreme daily precipitation rates (Rx1day) in CMIP6 models (ScenarioMIP) with respect to 1850-1900. Medians and 5, 17, 83, 95 percentiles.
- Relative frequency and intensity changes of 1-in-10-year drought events in CMIP6 models (ScenarioMIP) with respect to 1850-1900. Medians and 5, 17, 83, 95 percentiles.
- Monthly NH snow cover extent changes (in %), dependent on the GWL (with respect to 1850-1900), for CMIP6 models (historical + ScenarioMIP), with respect to snow cover extent at 0°C GWL (1850-1900)
- Average precipitable water (annual mean), precipitation rate (annual mean + interannual variability), and runoff (annual mean + interannual variability) over tropical land (|latitude|<30°), in the CMIP6 models that reach +5°C GWL in SSP5-8.5.
- Average precipitable water (annual mean), precipitation rate (annual mean + interannual variability), and runoff (annual mean + interannual variability) over tropical land (|latitude|>30°), in the CMIP6 models that reach +5°C GWL in SSP5-8.5.
Data provided in relation to figure
Panel a:
- Data file: Extremes/TXx_freq_change_10_year_event.csv; relates to the orange clock symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
- Data file: Extremes/TXx_intens_change_10_year_event.csv; relates to the orange thermometer symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
- Data file: Extremes/TXx_freq_change_50_year_event.csv; relates to the brown clock symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
- Data file: Extremes/TXx_intens_change_50_year_event.csv; relates to the brown thermometer symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
Panel b:
- Data file: Extremes/Rx1day _freq_change_10_year_event.csv; relates to the orange clock symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
- Data file: Extremes/Rx1day _intens_change_10_year_event.csv; relates to the orange rain cloud symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
- Data file: Extremes/Rx1day _freq_change_50_year_event.csv; relates to the brown clock symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
- Data file: Extremes/Rx1day _intens_change_50_year_event.csv; relates to the brown rain cloud symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
Panel c:
- Data file: Extremes/drought _freq_change_10_year_event.csv; relates to the orange clock symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
- Data file: Extremes/drought _intens_change_10_year_event.csv; relates to the orange drop symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
Panel d: Data files: sncbin/sncbin_{model}_historical+ssp{xyy}.nc. For each model and scenario, these files contain a table that gives the snow cover extent changes for each month of the year and for 0.2°C-wide temperature bins. The colours represent the 5 scenarios (see legend, standard IPCC scenario colour code). Each dot represents one GWL (0.2°C bins) for one model and one scenario. The linear multi-model regression lines are coloured dependent on the scenario they represent.
Panel e:
- Data files: WaterCyclePanels/Hydro_vars_change_20210201_derived_tropic.json. Multi-model mean precipitable water, precipitation, and runoff (annual mean and interannual variability (standard deviation)).
Left part of the panel:
-
Black full line: Precipitable water, annual mean, multi-model mean
-
Brown full line: Runoff, annual mean, multi-model mean
-
Brown dashed line: Runoff, interannual variability, multi-model mean
-
Blue full line: Precipitation, annual mean, multi-model mean
-
Blue dashed line: Precipitation, interannual variability, multi-model mean
Right part of the panel: 17-83% inter-model ranges for the +5°C GWL. Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data.
Panel a: The Python script Extremes/TS2-Land-Extremes-202110.py reads the csv data sheets and plots the panel.
Panel b: The Python script Extremes/TS2-Land-Extremes-202110.py reads the csv data sheets and plots the panel.
Panel c: The Python script Extremes/TS2-Land-Extremes-202110.py reads the csv data sheets and plots the panel.
Panel d: The Python script ModelSnow/AR6TS2-Snow.py reads the csv data sheets and plots the panel.
Panel e: The Python script WaterCyclePanels/TS12-WaterCycle.py reads the json data sheets and plots the panel.
All the cvs data above are available in the CEDA catalogue here: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/e046adc115b04395937e793c9f3dbcb1