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20 changes: 20 additions & 0 deletions CHANGELOG.md
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Expand Up @@ -5,6 +5,24 @@ All notable changes to this project will be documented in this file.
The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/),
and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0.html).

## [0.11.13] - 2024-07-28 12:00:00

### Added

- Added three new pension types to the model: (i) defined benefits system, (ii) notional defined contribution system, and (iii) points system.

## [0.11.12] - 2024-07-26 01:00:00

### Bug Fix

- Fixes extrapolation of nested lists of tax function parameters.

## [0.11.11] - 2024-06-24 01:00:00

### Added

- Add new parameters for resource constraint tolerances for steady state and time path solution.

## [0.11.10] - 2024-06-17 01:00:00

### Added
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -253,6 +271,8 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
- Any earlier versions of OG-USA can be found in the [`OG-Core`](https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-Core) repository [release history](https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-Core/releases) from [v.0.6.4](https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-Core/releases/tag/v0.6.4) (Jul. 20, 2021) or earlier.


[0.11.13]: https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-Core/compare/v0.11.11...v0.11.13
[0.11.11]: https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-Core/compare/v0.11.10...v0.11.11
[0.11.10]: https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-Core/compare/v0.11.9...v0.11.10
[0.11.9]: https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-Core/compare/v0.11.8...v0.11.9
[0.11.8]: https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-Core/compare/v0.11.7...v0.11.8
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13 changes: 13 additions & 0 deletions docs/book/content/api/demographics.rst
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@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
.. _demographics:

Demographics Functions
=======================

**demographics.py modules**

ogcore.demographics
------------------------------------------

.. automodule:: ogcore.demographics
:members: get_un_data, get_fert, get_mort, get_pop, pop_rebin, get_imm_rates,
immsolve, get_pop_objs, pre_pop_solve
2 changes: 2 additions & 0 deletions docs/book/content/api/public_api.rst
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Expand Up @@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ There is also a link to the source code for each documented member.
:maxdepth: 1

aggregates
demographics
elliptical_u_est
execute
firm
Expand All @@ -22,6 +23,7 @@ There is also a link to the source code for each documented member.
parameter_plots
parameter_tables
parameters
pensions
tax
txfunc
utils
4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions docs/book/content/api/tax.rst
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Expand Up @@ -9,6 +9,6 @@ ogcore.tax
------------------------------------------

.. automodule:: ogcore.tax
:members: replacement_rate_vals, ETR_wealth, MTR_wealth, ETR_income,
MTR_income, get_biz_tax, net_taxes, income_tax_liab, pension_amount,
:members: ETR_wealth, MTR_wealth, ETR_income,
MTR_income, get_biz_tax, net_taxes, income_tax_liab,
wealth_tax_liab, bequest_tax_liab
155 changes: 151 additions & 4 deletions docs/book/content/theory/government.md
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Expand Up @@ -317,7 +317,151 @@ Businesses face a linear tax rate $\tau^{b}_{m,t}$, which can vary by industry a

#### Pensions

[TODO: Add description of government pensions and the relevant parameters]
The `OG-Core` model allows for four different systems for public pensions:

1. U.S.-style social security system
2. Defined benefit system
3. Notional defined contribution system
4. Points system

These can be selected with the `pension_system` parameter. Accepted values are `US-Style Social Security`, `Defined Benefits`, `Notional Defined Contribution`, `Points System`. We discuss each of these in turn below.

For all systems, $R$ represents the age at which the individual becomes eligible to receive the government provided retirement benefit.

##### U.S.-style social security system

Under the U.S.-style social security system, households over age $R$ received a pension amount that is a function of their earnings history. The earings history includes the highest earning `AIME_num_periods` prior to retirement (which OG-Core assumes happens at age $R$). This history determines the Average Indexed Monthly Earnings (AIME):

```{math}
:label: eqn:AIME
AIME_{j,R,t+R} = {\sum_{u=0}^{AIMEper} w_{t+u}e_{j,u,t+u}n{j,u,t+u}}{ 12 * AIMEper}
```

The AIME in turn, determines a household's (PIA) based on three rates and brackets:

```{math}
:label: eqn:PIA
PIAbase_{j,R,t+R} =
\begin{cases}
PIArate_1 \times AIME_{j,R,t+R}, \text{for } AIME_{j,R,t+R} \leq AIMEbkt_1 \\
PIArate_2 \times AIME_{j,R,t+R}, \text{for } AIMEbkt_1 < AIME_{j,R,t+R} \leq AIMEbkt_2 \\
PIArate_3 \times AIME_{j,R,t+R}, \text{for } AIMEbkt_2 < AIME_{j,R,t+R} \\
\end{cases}
```

The PIA is then capped at a maximum, set by the parameter `PIA_maxpayment`, $PIA_{j,R,t+R} = \max\{PIAbase_{j,R,t+R}, \text{ PIA max payment amount}\}$.

The replacement rate, $\theta_j$ is then calculated as annual earnings, with an adjustment for the wage rate.:

```{math}
:label: eqn:theta
\theta_{j,R,t+R} = \frac{PIA_{j,R,t+R} \times 12}{factor \times w_{t+R}}
```

Note that $aIME_{j,R,t+R}$ is a function of each households' earning history, but their choice of earning may depend on their retirement benefit. Solving this exactly would introduce and additional fixed point problem in both the steady state solution and in the time path solution. The latter would be extremely computationally taxing. Therefore, we make the simplification of determining the AIME for each type $j$ using the steady state solution and earnings for type $j$ in the steady state. This leads to some approximation error, but because $\theta_j$ is adjusted by the current wage rate, this approximation error is minized.

The pension amount for households under the US-style social security system is then:

```{math}
:label: eqn:ss_pension
pension_{j,s,t} = \theta_j \times w_t \quad \forall s > R
```


##### Defined benefit system

The defined benefit system pension amount is given as:

```{math}
:label: eqn:db_pension
pension{j,s,t} = \biggl[\frac{\sum_{s=R-ny}^{R-1}w_{t}e_{j,s,t}n_{j,s,t}}{ny}\biggr]\times Cy \times \alpha_{DB} \quad \forall s > R
```

where:
\begin{itemize}
\item $ny$ are the number of years over which average earnings are calculated
\item $Cy$ are the number of years of contributions. In our model, there is no exit from the labor force, so workers will contribute for $R$ years, but $Cy$ could be some number less than $R$ if there is a maximum number of years of contributions one can accrue under the DB system.
\item $\alpha_{DB}$ is the replacement rate per year of contribution.
\end{itemize}

Given this pension system and the fact that there is only variation in labor supply along the intensive margin (so we don't need to consider changes in $Cy$), the partial derivatives from the household section are given by:

```{math}
:label: eqn:db_deriv
\frac{\partial \theta_{j,u,t+u-s}}{\partial n_{j,s,t}} =
\begin{cases}
0 , & \text{if}\ s < R - Cy \\
w_{t}e_{j,s}\alpha_{DB}\times \frac{Cy}{ny}, & \text{if}\ R - Cy <= s < R \\
0, & \text{if}\ s \geq R \\
\end{cases}
```

##### Notional defined contribution system

The pension amount under a notional defined contribution system is given as:

```{math}
:label: eqn:ndc_pension
pension{j,s,t} = \biggl[\sum_{s=E}^{R-1}\tau^{p}_{t}w_{t}e_{j,s,t}n_{j,s,t}(1 + g_{NDC,t})^{R-s-1}\biggr]\delta_{R, t} \quad \forall s > R
```

where:

* $\tau^p$ is the pension contribution tax rate
* $g_{NDC,t}$ the rate of growth applied to contributions.
* For example, In the Italian system, $g_{NDC,t}$ is the mean nominal GDP growth rate in the 5 years before seniority
* i.e., $g_{NDC,t}=\prod_{j=i}^{R-1}\bar{g}_{j}$
* Note, this is not $g_y$. In the SS, it's $(\bar{g}_{y} + \bar{g}_{n})$, and in the transition path equilibrium, it's not a function of exogenous variables since the growth rate of nominal GDP is endogenous.
* $\delta_{R, t}$ is the conversion coefficient at time $t$ and its calculation is detailed below.

```{math}
\delta_{R} = (dir_{R} + ind_{R} - k)^{-1}
```

where $k$ is an adjustment that takes into account the number of payments per year. In particular, $k=0.5 - (6/13n)$, where $n$ is the number of payments per year. So if the payments are made monthly, $n=12$ and thus $k=0.4615$.

The $dir_{R, t}$ term is an adjustment to make the payments actuarially fair given mortality risk:

```{math}
dir_{R, t} = \sum_{u=0}^{E+S-R}\left[\prod_{s=R}^{u}(1-\hat{\rho}_{s, t})\right](1+\hat{g}_{y, t})^{-u}
```

where $\hat{\rho}_{s,t}$ are the mortality tables used in the pension system at time $t$ and $\hat{g}_{y, t}$ is the long run expected nominal GDP growth rate used in the pension system at time $t$.

Finally, $ind_{R}$ is an adjustment for survivor benefits. Since we model households (and not individuals), we set $ind_{R} = 0$ by default. This can be changed with the parameter `indR` if one would like to account for the fact that households lose members over time.

Given this pension system, the partial derivatives from the household section are given by:

```{math}
:label: eqn:ndc_deriv
\frac{\partial \theta_{j,u,t+u-s}}{\partial n_{j,s,t}} =
\begin{cases}
\tau^{p}_{t}w_{t}e_{j,s}(1+g_{NDC,t})^{u - s}\delta_{R,t}, & \text{if}\ s<R-1 \\
0, & \text{if}\ s \geq R \\
\end{cases}
```

##### Points system

Under a points system, the pension amount is given as:

```{math}
:label: eqn:ps_pension
pension{j,s,t} = \sum_{s=E}^{R-1}w_{t}e_{j,s,t}n_{j,s,t}\times v_{t} \quad \forall s > R
```

where $v_{t}$ is the value of a point at time $t$

Given this pension system, the partial derivatives from the household section are given by:

```{math}
:label: eqn:ps_deriv
\frac{\partial \theta_{j,u,t+u-s}}{\partial n_{j,s,t}} =
\begin{cases}
0 , & \text{if}\ s < R \\
w_{t}e_{j,s}v_{t}, & \text{if}\ s \geq R \\
\end{cases}
```

#### Lump sum transfers:

Expand All @@ -327,6 +471,7 @@ Businesses face a linear tax rate $\tau^{b}_{m,t}$, which can vary by industry a
:label: EqUnbalGBCtfer
TR_t = g_{tr,t}\:\alpha_{tr}\: p_t Y_t \quad\forall t
```

where total government transfers to households $TR_t$ and GDP ($p_t Y_t$) are in terms of the numeraire good and the term $Y_t$ is in terms of the composite good.

The time dependent multiplier $g_{tr,t}$ in front of the right-hand-side of {eq}`EqUnbalGBCtfer` will equal 1 in most initial periods. It will potentially deviate from 1 in some future periods in order to provide a closure rule that ensures a stable long-run debt-to-GDP ratio. We will discuss the closure rule in Section {ref}`SecUnbalGBCcloseRule`.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -417,8 +562,10 @@ Businesses face a linear tax rate $\tau^{b}_{m,t}$, which can vary by industry a

```{math}
:label: EqUnbalGBCgovRev
Rev_t &= \underbrace{\sum_{m=1}^M\Bigl[\tau^{corp}_{m,t}\bigl(p_{m,t}Y_{m,t} - w_t L_t\bigr) - \tau^{corp}_{m,t}\delta^\tau_{m,t}K_{m,t} - \tau^{inv}_{m,t}\delta_{M,t}K_{m,t}\Bigr]}_{\text{corporate tax revenue}} \\
&\quad + \underbrace{\sum_{s=E+1}^{E+S}\sum_{j=1}^J\lambda_j\omega_{s,t}\tau^{etr}_{s,t}\left(x_{j,s,t},y_{j,s,t}\right)\bigl(x_{j,s,t} + y_{j,s,t}\bigr)}_{\text{household tax revenue}} \quad\forall t
Rev_t &= \underbrace{\sum_{m=1}^M\Bigl[\tau^{corp}_{m,t}\bigl(p_{m,t}Y_{m,t} - w_t L_t\bigr) - \tau^{corp}_{m,t}\delta^\tau_{m,t}K_{m,t} - \tau^{inv}_{m,t}\delta_{M,t}K_{m,t}\Bigr]}_{\text{corporate income tax revenue}} \\
&\quad + \underbrace{\sum_{s=E+1}^{E+S}\sum_{j=1}^J\lambda_j\omega_{s,t}\tau^{etr}_{s,t}\left(x_{j,s,t},y_{j,s,t}\right)\bigl(x_{j,s,t} + y_{j,s,t}\bigr)}_{\text{household income tax revenue}} \\
&\quad + \underbrace{\sum_{s=E+1}^{E+S}\sum_{j=1}^J\sum_{i=1}^I\lambda_j\omega_{s,t}\tau^{c}_{i,t}p{i,t}c_{i,j,s,t}}_{\text{consumption tax revenue}} \\
&\quad + \underbrace{\sum_{s=E+1}^{E+S}\sum_{j=1}^J\lambda_j\omega_{s,t}\tau^{w}_{t}b_{j,s,t}}_{\text{wealth tax revenue}} \quad\forall t
```

where household labor income is defined as $x_{j,s,t}\equiv w_t e_{j,s}n_{j,s,t}$ and capital income $y_{j,s,t}\equiv r_{p,t} b_{j,s,t}$.
Expand All @@ -430,7 +577,7 @@ Businesses face a linear tax rate $\tau^{b}_{m,t}$, which can vary by industry a

```{math}
:label: EqUnbalGBCbudgConstr
D_{t+1} + Rev_t = (1 + r_{gov,t})D_t + G_t + I_{g,t} + TR_t + UBI_t \quad\forall t
D_{t+1} + Rev_t = (1 + r_{gov,t})D_t + G_t + I_{g,t} + Pensions_t + TR_t + UBI_t \quad\forall t
```

where $r_{gov,t}$ is the interest rate paid by the government defined in equation {eq}`EqUnbalGBC_rate_wedge` below, $G_{t}$ is government spending on public goods, $I_{g,t}$ is total government spending on infrastructure investment, $TR_{t}$ are non-pension government transfers, and $UBI_t$ is the total UBI transfer outlays across households in time $t$.
Expand Down
105 changes: 103 additions & 2 deletions docs/book/content/theory/stationarization.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -209,14 +209,16 @@ Where $\hat{MTR}^w_{j,s,t} = \left( \frac{h^{w}p_{w}\hat{b}_{j,s,t}}{(\hat{b}_{j
```{math}
:label: EqStnrzGovRev
\hat{Rev}_t &= \underbrace{\sum_{m=1}^M\Bigl[\tau^{corp}_{m,t}\bigl(p_{m,t}\hat{Y}_{m,t} - \hat{w}_t\hat{L}_t\bigr) - \tau^{corp}_{m,t}\delta^\tau_{m,t}\hat{K}_{m,t} - \tau^{inv}_{m,t}\hat{I}_{m,t}\Bigr]}_{\text{corporate tax revenue}} \\
&\qquad + \underbrace{\sum_{s=E+1}^{E+S}\sum_{j=1}^J\lambda_j\hat{\omega}_{s,t}\tau^{etr}_{s,t}\left(\hat{x}_{j,s,t},\hat{y}_{j,s,t}\right)\bigl(\hat{x}_{j,s,t} + \hat{y}_{j,s,t}\bigr)}_{\text{household tax revenue}} \quad\forall t
&\qquad + \underbrace{\sum_{s=E+1}^{E+S}\sum_{j=1}^J\lambda_j\hat{\omega}_{s,t}\tau^{etr}_{s,t}\left(\hat{x}_{j,s,t},\hat{y}_{j,s,t}\right)\bigl(\hat{x}_{j,s,t} + \hat{y}_{j,s,t}\bigr)}_{\text{household tax revenue}} \\
&\quad + \underbrace{\sum_{s=E+1}^{E+S}\sum_{j=1}^J\sum_{i=1}^I\lambda_j\omega_{s,t}\tau^{c}_{i,t}p{i,t}\hat{c}_{i,j,s,t}}_{\text{consumption tax revenue}} \\
&\quad + \underbrace{\sum_{s=E+1}^{E+S}\sum_{j=1}^J\lambda_j\omega_{s,t}\tau^{w}_{t}\hat{b}_{j,s,t}}_{\text{wealth tax revenue}} \quad\forall t
```

Every term in the government budget constraint {eq}`EqUnbalGBCbudgConstr` is growing at both the productivity growth rate and the population growth rate, so we stationarize it by dividing both sides by $e^{g_y t}\tilde{N}_t$. We also have to multiply and divide the next period debt term $D_{t+1}$ by $e^{g_y(t+1)}\tilde{N}_{t+1}$, leaving the term $e^{g_y}(1 + \tilde{g}_{n,t+1})$.

```{math}
:label: EqStnrzGovBC
e^{g_y}\left(1 + \tilde{g}_{n,t+1}\right)\hat{D}_{t+1} + \hat{Rev}_t = (1 + r_{gov,t})\hat{D}_t + \hat{G}_t + \hat{I}_{g,t} + \hat{TR}_t + \hat{UBI}_t \quad\forall t
e^{g_y}\left(1 + \tilde{g}_{n,t+1}\right)\hat{D}_{t+1} + \hat{Rev}_t = (1 + r_{gov,t})\hat{D}_t + \hat{G}_t + \hat{I}_{g,t} + \hat{Pensions}_t + \hat{TR}_t + \hat{UBI}_t \quad\forall t
```

The stationarized versions of the rule for total government infrastructure investment spending $I_{g,t}$ in {eq}`EqUnbalGBC_Igt` and the rule for government investment spending in each industry in {eq}`EqUnbalGBC_Igt` are found by dividing both sides of the respective equations by $e^{g_y t}\tilde{N}_t$.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -306,6 +308,105 @@ Where $\hat{MTR}^w_{j,s,t} = \left( \frac{h^{w}p_{w}\hat{b}_{j,s,t}}{(\hat{b}_{j
\end{split}
```


### Stationarized Pension System Equations

#### Stiationarized Notional Defined Contributions Equations

The stationarized NDC pension amount is given by:

```{math}
:label: eqn:ndc_amount_stationarized
\hat{\theta}_{j,u,t+u-s}=
\begin{cases}
0, & \text{if}\ u < R \\
\biggl[\sum_{s=E}^{R-1}\tau^{p}_{t}\frac{\hat{w}_{t}}{e^{g_{y}(u-s)}}e_{j,s}n_{j,s,t}(1 + g_{NDC,t})^{R-s-1}\biggr]\delta_{R, t}, & \text{otherwise}
\end{cases}
```


The stationarized derivative of the pension amount it slightly simpler since it involved only current period wages. We give the derivation first.

The FOC for the choice of labor supply is given by:

```{math}
\begin{split}
\biggl(\frac{1}{1 + \tau^{c}_{j,s,t}}\biggr)&\biggl(w_{t}e_{j,s} - \frac{\partial T_{j,s,t}}{\partial n_{j,s,t}}\biggr)c^{-\sigma}_{j,s,t} + \sum_{u=R}^{E+S}\beta^{u-s}\prod_{v=s}^{u}(1-\rho_{v})\frac{\partial \theta_{j,u,t+u-s}}{\partial n_{j,s,t}}c^{-\sigma}_{j,u,t+u-s}\biggl(\frac{1}{1+\tau^{c}_{j,u,t+u-s}}\biggr) \\
& = MDU_l(n_{j,s,t})e^{g_{y}t(1-\sigma)}
\end{split}
```

where we now pull the growth factor out of the marginal disutility of labor term to aid in the exposition of the stationarization. To stationarize this equation, we divide both sides through by $e^{g_{y}t(1-\sigma)}$.

```{math}
\begin{split}
\biggl(\frac{1}{1 + \tau^{c}_{j,s,t}}\biggr)&\biggl(\frac{w_{t}}{e^{g_{y}t}}e_{j,s} - \frac{\partial T_{j,s,t}}{\partial n_{j,s,t}}\biggr)\frac{c^{-\sigma}_{j,s,t}}{e^{g_{y}t(-\sigma)}} + \sum_{u=R}^{E+S}\beta^{u-s}\prod_{v=s}^{u}(1-\rho_{v})\frac{\partial \theta_{j,u,t+u-s}}{\partial n_{j,s,t}e^{g_{y}t}}\frac{c^{-\sigma}_{j,u,t+u-s}}{e^{g_{y}t(-\sigma)}}\biggl(\frac{1}{1+\tau^{c}_{j,u,t+u-s}}\biggr) \\
& = MDU_l(n_{j,s,t})\frac{e^{g_{y}t(1-\sigma)}}{e^{g_{y}t(1-\sigma)}}
\end{split}
```

Which we can write as:

```{math}
\begin{split}
\biggl(\frac{1}{1 + \tau^{c}_{j,s,t}}\biggr)&\biggl(\hat{w}_{t}e_{j,s} - \frac{\partial T_{j,s,t}}{\partial n_{j,s,t}}\biggr)\hat{c}^{-\sigma}_{j,s,t} + \sum_{u=R}^{E+S}\beta^{u-s}\prod_{v=s}^{u}(1-\rho_{v})\frac{\partial \hat{\theta}_{j,u,t+u-s}}{\partial n_{j,s,t}}\hat{c}^{-\sigma}_{j,u,t+u-s}e^{g_{y}(u-s)(-\sigma)}\biggl(\frac{1}{1+\tau^{c}_{j,u,t+u-s}}\biggr) \\
& = MDU_l(n_{j,s,t})
\end{split}
```

where $\frac{\partial \hat{\theta}_{j,u,t+u-s}}{\partial n_{j,s,t}}$ is given by:

```{math}
:label: eqn:ndc_deriv_stationarized
\frac{\partial \theta_{j,u,t+u-s}}{\partial n_{j,s,t}} =
\begin{cases}
\tau^{p}_{t}\hat{w}_{t}e_{j,s}(1+g_{NDC,t})^{u - s}\delta_{R,t}, & \text{if}\ s<R-1 \\
0, & \text{if}\ s \geq R \\
\end{cases}
```


#### Stationarized Defined Benefits Equations

Stationarized pension amount:

```{math}
:label: eqn:db_amount_staionarized
\hat{\theta}_{j,u,t+u-s} = \biggl[\frac{\sum_{s=R-ny}^{R-1}\frac{\hat{w}_{t}}{e^{g_{y}(u-s)}}e_{j,s}n_{j,s,t}}{ny}\biggr]\times Cy \times \alpha_{DB}, \ \ \forall u \geq R
```

Stationarized pension amount derivative:

```{math}
:label: eqn:db_deriv_stationarized
\frac{\partial \hat{\theta}_{j,u,t+u-s}}{\partial n_{j,s,t}} =
\begin{cases}
0 , & \text{if}\ s < R - Cy \\
\hat{w}_{t}e_{j,s}\alpha_{DB}\times \frac{Cy}{ny}, & \text{if}\ R - Cy <= s < R \\
0, & \text{if}\ s \geq R \\
\end{cases}
```

#### Stationarized Points System Equations

Stationarized pension amount:

```{math}
:label: eqn:ps_amount_stationarized
\hat{\theta}_{j,u,t+u-s} =\sum_{s=E}^{R-1}\frac{\hat{w}_{t}}{e^{g_{y}(u-s)}}e_{j,s}n_{j,s,t}v_{t}, \ \ \forall u \geq R
```

Stationarized pension amount derivative:

```{math}
:label: eqn:ps_deriv_stationarized
\frac{\partial \hat{\theta}_{j,u,t+u-s}}{\partial n_{j,s,t}} =
\begin{cases}
\hat{w}_{t}e_{j,s} v_{t}, & \text{if}\ s < R \\
0, & \text{if}\ s \geq R \\
\end{cases}
```

(SecStnrzMC)=
## Stationarized Market Clearing Equations

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1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions environment.yml
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Expand Up @@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ dependencies:
- setuptools
- scipy>=1.7.1
- pandas>=1.2.5
- numba
- matplotlib
- dask>=2.30.0
- dask-core>=2.30.0
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