Merge pull request #316 from PSLmodels/taxcalc-new-version

Use next Tax-Calculator version
PSLmodels · Dec 1, 2024 · 4fba122 · 4fba122
2 parents 33a1f10 + ee90eb5
commit 4fba122
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diff --git a/setup.py b/setup.py
@@ -2,13 +2,13 @@
 
 setup(
     name="tmd",
-    version="0.6.0",
+    version="0.6.1",
     packages=find_packages(),
     python_requires=">=3.10,<3.13",
     install_requires=[
         "policyengine_us==1.55.0",
         "tables",  # required by policyengine_us
-        "taxcalc>=4.3.3",
+        "taxcalc>=4.3.4",
         "scikit-learn",
         "torch",
         "tensorboard",

diff --git a/tests/expected_tax_expenditures b/tests/expected_tax_expenditures
@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 paytax 1595.0
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 iitax 2507.0
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 ctc 130.2
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 eitc 69.6
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 social_security_partial_taxability 35.9
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 niit -54.0
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 cgqd_tax_preference 220.9
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 qbid 58.0
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 salt 21.2
-YR,KIND,EST= 2026 paytax 1852.5
-YR,KIND,EST= 2026 iitax 3160.8
-YR,KIND,EST= 2026 ctc 44.7
-YR,KIND,EST= 2026 eitc 78.1
-YR,KIND,EST= 2026 social_security_partial_taxability 47.7
-YR,KIND,EST= 2026 niit -53.8
-YR,KIND,EST= 2026 cgqd_tax_preference 224.8
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 paytax 1579.5
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 iitax 2527.0
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 ctc 129.0
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 eitc 68.3
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 social_security_partial_taxability 35.8
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 niit -52.5
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 cgqd_tax_preference 219.7
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 qbid 52.1
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 salt 21.1
+YR,KIND,EST= 2026 paytax 1832.8
+YR,KIND,EST= 2026 iitax 3188.6
+YR,KIND,EST= 2026 ctc 43.9
+YR,KIND,EST= 2026 eitc 77.1
+YR,KIND,EST= 2026 social_security_partial_taxability 47.5
+YR,KIND,EST= 2026 niit -52.1
+YR,KIND,EST= 2026 cgqd_tax_preference 222.2
 YR,KIND,EST= 2026 qbid -0.0
-YR,KIND,EST= 2026 salt 165.5
+YR,KIND,EST= 2026 salt 165.0
diff --git a/tests/test_misc.py b/tests/test_misc.py
@@ -57,8 +57,8 @@ def compare(name, act, exp, tol):
     compare("wght_sum", wght.sum(), 184e6, 0.01)
     hiagi = agi >= 1e6
     compare("wght_sum_hiagi", (wght * hiagi).sum(), 0.875e6, 0.01)
-    compare("wght_itax_sum", (wght * itax).sum(), 1595e9, 0.01)
-    compare("wght_itax_sum_hiagi", ((wght * itax) * hiagi).sum(), 902e9, 0.01)
+    compare("wght_itax_sum", (wght * itax).sum(), 1666e9, 0.01)
+    compare("wght_itax_sum_hiagi", ((wght * itax) * hiagi).sum(), 911e9, 0.01)
     # count weighted number of tax units with zero agi by filing status
     agi0 = agi == 0
     compare("wght_sum_agi0_fs0", (wght * agi0).sum(), 16.22e6, 0.01)

diff --git a/tests/test_tax_revenue.py b/tests/test_tax_revenue.py
@@ -10,13 +10,26 @@
 FIRST_CYR = 2021
 LAST_CYR = 2033
 
-DEFAULT_RELTOL_ITAX = 0.10
+DEFAULT_RELTOL_ITAX = 0.010
 RELTOL_ITAX = {
-    2022: 0.13,
+    2021: 0.095,
+    2022: 0.090,
+    2024: 0.060,
+    2025: 0.050,
+    2026: 0.100,
+    2027: 0.060,
+    2028: 0.070,
+    2029: 0.075,
+    2030: 0.080,
+    2031: 0.085,
+    2032: 0.090,
+    2033: 0.090,
 }
-DEFAULT_RELTOL_PTAX = 0.02
+DEFAULT_RELTOL_PTAX = 0.010
 RELTOL_PTAX = {
-    2021: 0.05,
+    2021: 0.095,
+    2022: 0.020,
+    2024: 0.020,
 }
 
 
@@ -93,7 +106,7 @@ def test_tax_revenue(
     else:
         if emsg:
             reltol = RELTOL_ITAX.get(year, DEFAULT_RELTOL_ITAX)
-            emsg += f"\nRELTOL_ITAX= {reltol:4.2f}"
+            emsg += f"\nRELTOL_ITAX= {reltol:5.3f}"
             reltol = RELTOL_PTAX.get(year, DEFAULT_RELTOL_PTAX)
-            emsg += f"\nRELTOL_PTAX= {reltol:4.2f}"
+            emsg += f"\nRELTOL_PTAX= {reltol:5.3f}"
             raise ValueError(emsg)
diff --git a/tmd/areas/weights/xx.log b/tmd/areas/weights/xx.log
diff --git a/tmd/create_taxcalc_growth_factors.py b/tmd/create_taxcalc_growth_factors.py
@@ -11,9 +11,14 @@
 LAST_YEAR = 2074
 
 AWAGE_INDEX = 6
+ASCHCI_INDEX = 7
+ASCHEI_INDEX = 9
+AINTS_INDEX = 11
 ADIVS_INDEX = 12
 ACGNS_INDEX = 13
 ASOCSEC_INDEX = 14
+AUCOMP_INDEX = 15
+
 
 PGFFILE = STORAGE_FOLDER / "input" / "puf_growfactors.csv"
 TGFFILE = STORAGE_FOLDER / "output" / "tmd_growfactors.csv"
@@ -37,12 +42,15 @@ def create_factors_file():
 
     # adjust some factors in order to calibrate tax revenue after FIRST_YEAR
     # ... adjust 2022 factors to hit 2023 tax revenue targets:
-    # ...... adjustments to hit 2023 PTAX target of 1591.3
-    gfdf.iat[2022 - FIRST_YEAR, AWAGE_INDEX] += 0.099
-    # ...... adjustments to hit 2023 ITAX target of 2505.3
-    gfdf.iat[2022 - FIRST_YEAR, ADIVS_INDEX] += -0.039
-    gfdf.iat[2022 - FIRST_YEAR, ACGNS_INDEX] += -0.039
-    gfdf.iat[2022 - FIRST_YEAR, ASOCSEC_INDEX] += -0.192
+    # ...... adjustments to hit 2023 CBO PTAX target of 1580.0
+    gfdf.iat[2022 - FIRST_YEAR, AWAGE_INDEX] += 0.16
+    # ...... adjustments to hit 2023 CBO ITAX target of 2512.3
+    gfdf.iat[2022 - FIRST_YEAR, ASOCSEC_INDEX] += -0.19
+    gfdf.iat[2022 - FIRST_YEAR, ASCHCI_INDEX] += -0.30
+    gfdf.iat[2022 - FIRST_YEAR, ASCHEI_INDEX] += -0.30
+    gfdf.iat[2022 - FIRST_YEAR, ADIVS_INDEX] += -0.04
+    gfdf.iat[2022 - FIRST_YEAR, ACGNS_INDEX] += -0.04
+    gfdf.iat[2022 - FIRST_YEAR, AUCOMP_INDEX] += -0.50
 
     # add rows thru LAST_YEAR by copying values for last year in PUF file
     if LAST_YEAR > last_puf_year:

diff --git a/tmd/examination/results4.md b/tmd/examination/results4.md
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 Phase 4+ National Data Examination Results
 ==========================================
 
-**RESULTS AS OF 2024-11-17**
+**RESULTS AS OF 2024-11-30**
 
 This project is developing a new dataset for use by income and payroll
 tax microsimulation models.  The project is progressing in several
@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ For more on the source of the federal agency estimates and on how the
 model-plus-dataset estimates are generated, see the [examination
 methods](./methods.md) document.  The model used to generate the
 following Phase 6 estimates is [Tax-Calculator
-4.3.3](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator/blob/master/docs/about/releases.md)).
+4.3.4](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator/blob/master/docs/about/releases.md)).
 
 <br>
 
@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ following Phase 6 estimates is [Tax-Calculator
 | CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | 1580.0 | 1829.9 | CBO    |
-| 1595.0 | 1852.5 | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset |
+| 1579.5 | 1832.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset |
 
 <br>
 
@@ -37,7 +37,7 @@ following Phase 6 estimates is [Tax-Calculator
 | CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | 2512.3 | 2849.4 | CBO                              |
-| 2507.0 | 3160.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset |
+| 2527.0 | 3188.6 | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset |
 
 <br>
 
@@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ following Phase 6 estimates is [Tax-Calculator
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | 122.1  | 57.6   | JCT (assumes less than 100% participation) |
 | 108.6  | 55.7   | TSY (probably assumes less than 100% participation) |
-| 130.2  | 44.7   | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset (100% participation) |
+| 129.0  | 43.9   | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset (100% participation) |
 
 <br>
 
@@ -57,7 +57,7 @@ following Phase 6 estimates is [Tax-Calculator
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | 71.9   | 78.0   | JCT (assumes less than 100% participation) |
 | 63.6   | 71.2   | TSY (probably assumes less than 100% participation) |
-| 69.6   | 78.1   | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset (100% participation) |
+| 68.3   | 77.1   | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset (100% participation) |
 
 <br>
 
@@ -67,7 +67,7 @@ following Phase 6 estimates is [Tax-Calculator
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | 45.9   |  56.4  | JCT    |
 | 31.4   |  38.4  | TSY    |
-| 35.9   |  47.7  | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset |
+| 35.8   |  47.5  | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset |
 
 <br>
 
@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ following Phase 6 estimates is [Tax-Calculator
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | -56.5  | -53.8  | JCT    |
 |  ----  |  ----  | TSY    |
-| -54.0  | -53.8  | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset |
+| -52.5  | -52.1  | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset |
 
 <br>
 
@@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ following Phase 6 estimates is [Tax-Calculator
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | 259.3  | 239.8  | JCT    |
 | 153.9  | 182.4  | TSY    |
-| 220.9  | 224.8  | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset |
+| 219.7  | 222.2  | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset |
 
 <br>
 
@@ -97,7 +97,7 @@ following Phase 6 estimates is [Tax-Calculator
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | 56.2   |  0.0   | JCT    |
 | 50.4   |  0.0   | TSY    |
-| 58.0   |  0.0   | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset |
+| 52.1   |  0.0   | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset |
 
 <br>
 
@@ -107,4 +107,4 @@ following Phase 6 estimates is [Tax-Calculator
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 |  21.2  | 151.3  | JCT    |
 |  26.5  | 149.0  | TSY    |
-|  21.2  | 165.5  | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset |
+|  21.1  | 165.0  | Tax-Calculator + phase 6 dataset |