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fixpdf
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juanitorduz committed Jan 13, 2025
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40 changes: 16 additions & 24 deletions Presentations/amld_2025/amld_2025.html
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Expand Up @@ -391,41 +391,33 @@ <h2>Attribution Decomposition</h2>
<h2>Return on Ad Spend (ROAS)</h2>

<img data-src="amld_2025_files/static/images/roas_posterior.png" class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center r-stretch" width="1000"></section>
<section id="out-of-sample-forecasting" class="slide level2 smaller">
<section id="out-of-sample-forecasting" class="slide level2">
<h2>Out-of-sample Forecasting</h2>
<div class="columns">
<div class="column" style="width:50%;">
<div style="text-align:center;">
<div>

</div>
<div class="quarto-layout-panel" data-layout="[[50,50]]">
<div class="quarto-layout-row quarto-layout-valign-bottom">
<div class="quarto-layout-cell" style="flex-basis: 50.0%;justify-content: flex-start;">
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center">
<figure>
<p><img data-src="amld_2025_files/static/images/tscv.png" class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center" width="500"></p>
<p><img data-src="amld_2025_files/static/images/tscv.png" width="500"></p>
<figcaption>Prediction accuracy (CRPS)</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
</div><div class="column" style="width:50%;">
<div title="Model Evaluation Framework">
<div class="callout callout-tip callout-titled callout-style-default">
<div class="callout-body">
<div class="callout-title">
<div class="callout-icon-container">
<i class="callout-icon"></i>
</div>
<p><strong>Model Evaluation Framework</strong></p>
</div>
<div class="callout-content">
<p>Evaluate the model on the holdout set:</p>
<ul>
<li>Prediction accuracy (CRPS)</li>
<li>Parameter Stability</li>
</ul>
<div class="quarto-layout-cell" style="flex-basis: 50.0%;justify-content: flex-start;">
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center">
<figure>
<p><img data-src="amld_2025_files/static/images/tscv_alpha.png" width="500"></p>
<figcaption>Parameter Stability</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center">
<figure>
<p><img data-src="amld_2025_files/static/images/tscv_alpha.png" class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center" width="900"></p>
</figure>
</div>
</div></div>
</section>
<section id="time-varying-parameters" class="slide level2">
<h2>Time-varying Parameters</h2>
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24 changes: 5 additions & 19 deletions Presentations/amld_2025/amld_2025.qmd
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Expand Up @@ -207,29 +207,15 @@ mmm.plot_components_contributions(original_scale=True);

![](amld_2025_files/static/images/roas_posterior.png){fig-align="center" width="1000"}

## Out-of-sample Forecasting {.smaller}
## Out-of-sample Forecasting

::: {.columns}

::: {.column width="50%"}

![](amld_2025_files/static/images/tscv.png){fig-align="center" width="500"}

:::
::: {style="text-align:center;"}

::: {layout=[[50,50]] layout-valign="bottom"}

::: {.column width="50%"}

::: {.callout-tip title="Model Evaluation Framework"}

Evaluate the model on the holdout set:

- Prediction accuracy (CRPS)
- Parameter Stability

:::
![Prediction accuracy (CRPS)](amld_2025_files/static/images/tscv.png){fig-align="center" width="500"}

![](amld_2025_files/static/images/tscv_alpha.png){fig-align="center" width="900"}
![Parameter Stability](amld_2025_files/static/images/tscv_alpha.png){fig-align="center" width="500" }

:::

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