feat: Given a day of the voting date find the hour that maximizes the probability that the upgrade happens during working hours

[stedfn]

Usage:

python3 estimate_epoch_start_time.py --chain_id mainnet --voting_date_day "2024-10-23" --timezone cet

Example Output

Epoch -1: 13 hours, 19 minutes
Epoch -2: 13 hours, 15 minutes
Epoch -3: 13 hours, 23 minutes
Epoch -4: 13 hours, 17 minutes

Exponential weighted average epoch length: 13 hours, 18 minutes
Predicted start of epoch 1: 2024-10-22 05:18:32 CEST+0200 Tuesday
Predicted start of epoch 2: 2024-10-22 18:37:26 CEST+0200 Tuesday
Predicted start of epoch 3: 2024-10-23 07:56:19 CEST+0200 Wednesday
Predicted start of epoch 4: 2024-10-23 21:15:12 CEST+0200 Wednesday
Predicted start of epoch 5: 2024-10-24 10:34:05 CEST+0200 Thursday
Predicted start of epoch 6: 2024-10-24 23:52:58 CEST+0200 Thursday
Predicted start of epoch 7: 2024-10-25 13:11:51 CEST+0200 Friday
Predicted start of epoch 8: 2024-10-26 02:30:45 CEST+0200 Saturday
Predicted start of epoch 9: 2024-10-26 15:49:38 CEST+0200 Saturday
Predicted start of epoch 10: 2024-10-27 04:08:31 CET+0100 Sunday

Voting hours on 2024-10-23 UTC that result in upgrade during working hours (UTC 8:00-22:00):
- 00:00, Upgrade Epoch: 4
- 01:00, Upgrade Epoch: 4
- 02:00, Upgrade Epoch: 4
- 03:00, Upgrade Epoch: 4
- 04:00, Upgrade Epoch: 4
- 05:00, Upgrade Epoch: 4
- 06:00, Upgrade Epoch: 5
- 07:00, Upgrade Epoch: 5
- 08:00, Upgrade Epoch: 5
- 09:00, Upgrade Epoch: 5
- 10:00, Upgrade Epoch: 5
- 11:00, Upgrade Epoch: 5
- 12:00, Upgrade Epoch: 5
- 13:00, Upgrade Epoch: 5
- 14:00, Upgrade Epoch: 5
- 15:00, Upgrade Epoch: 5
- 16:00, Upgrade Epoch: 5
- 17:00, Upgrade Epoch: 5
- 18:00, Upgrade Epoch: 5
- 19:00, Upgrade Epoch: 5

[codecov]

Codecov Report

All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests ✅

Project coverage is 71.59%. Comparing base (8be015e) to head (7bc1d6d).
Report is 67 commits behind head on master.

Additional details and impacted files

@@            Coverage Diff             @@
##           master   #12204      +/-   ##
==========================================
- Coverage   71.84%   71.59%   -0.26%     
==========================================
  Files         827      836       +9     
  Lines      166716   167470     +754     
  Branches   166716   167470     +754     
==========================================
+ Hits       119783   119899     +116     
- Misses      41718    42339     +621     
- Partials     5215     5232      +17     

Flag	Coverage Δ
backward-compatibility	0.16% <ø> (-0.01%)	⬇️
db-migration	0.16% <ø> (-0.01%)	⬇️
genesis-check	1.25% <ø> (-0.01%)	⬇️
integration-tests	38.83% <ø> (-0.10%)	⬇️
linux	71.23% <ø> (-0.29%)	⬇️
linux-nightly	71.17% <ø> (-0.25%)	⬇️
macos	54.25% <ø> (-0.28%)	⬇️
pytests	1.56% <ø> (-0.01%)	⬇️
sanity-checks	1.37% <ø> (-0.01%)	⬇️
unittests	65.36% <ø> (-0.29%)	⬇️
upgradability	0.21% <ø> (-0.01%)	⬇️

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[VanBarbascu]

Looks great! Thanks for taking the time to work on this!