- Marina Hu
- Allison Huang
- Samuel Lee
- Audrey Liang
- Lilian Xia
In this study, we investigate the relationship between COVID-19 rates and violent crime rates in the top 15 most populated counties in California from July 2020 to March 2022. Exisiting reserach indicates significant shifts in crime rates during the pandemic; however, the specific relationship between COVID-19 and crime rates remains unclear. Our research primarily aimed to explore this topic and determine whether it is possible to predict changes in crime rates based on fluctuations in COVID-19 metrics. Utilizing datasets encompassing violent crime rates and COVID-19 rates (cases, deaths, positive tests, and hospitalization), we conducted exploratory data analysis on individual datasets and regression analysis on a merged dataset to examine potential correlations.
Upon plotting a scatterplot matrix visualization and performing an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis, we found lack of significant relationship between COVID-19 trends and violent crime rates. Despite our initial research suggesting a potential link between the pandemic and increasing crime rates, our findings do not support this assertion. Factors such as socioeconomic variables, demographic factors, and long-term trends in crime rates could potentially confound the relationship between COVID-19 and violent crime. Additionally, the limited timeframe of the dataset and the choice of analytical methods may have influenced the outcomes. Nevertheless, these findings underscore the complexity of the interplay between public health crises and crime dynamics, urging for further research to explore additional variables and employ diverse analytical approaches.