Proposal for 2023 Seismic Hazard Model and Seismic Disaggregation Tool for Ecuador using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Patricio Palacios 1*, Carlos Celi 1† and José Poveda 2†
1 Facultad de Ingenieria, Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Ecuador, Ave 12 de Octubre, Quito, 170143, DMQ, Ecuador
2 Centre for Training and Research on Reduction of Seismic Risk (ROSE Centre, Scuola Universitaria Superiore, IUSS di Pavia, Pavia, 27100, Italy.
*Corresponding author(s). E-mail(s): [email protected] Contributing authors: [email protected]; [email protected]
Abstract. This work presents an updated proposal for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the continental Ecuador, a country that is consistently exposed to subduction and shallow crustal seismic events. A comprehensive seismic catalog has been compiled based on data from the Instituto Geofisico de la Escuela Politecnica Nacional (2023), incorporating historical seismic records dating from 1587 to 1976, processed and homogenized data spanning from 1901 to March 2013, and recorded information up to 2023. Subsequently, a series of procedures were carried out to shape, process, and homogenize the catalog. The study employs specified source zones from the research conducted by Beauval et al. (2018) and conducts various mathematical modeling processes to derive the resulting seismic hazard map. Utilizing compatible and harmonized ground motion prediction equations with the available dataset, the analysis is further supplemented with probabilistic methods based on initial conditions and logical trees. A standout feature of this research is the development of interactive tools for seismic disaggregation calculations, designed for applicability throughout the continental Ecuador. These Python-based tools are made available to researchers, policymakers, and the public. This model and the accompanying tools aim to enhance the understanding of seismic hazard in Ecuador, building upon previous efforts while leveraging them for a better grasp of this complex subject. However, it is acknowledged that the models generated in this research can be further explored considering advances in the state of the art, therefore, the determination of seismic hazard in the continental Ecuador should remain an ongoing endeavor involving continuous research and updates.
Updated Repository:
- February 11, 2024. Updated map.
- February 22, 2024. Updated name.
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It should be noted that this report is based on data collected and methodologies established up to the date of its preparation. Consequently, any changes in the understanding of seismology, geological conditions, or seismic hazard assessment methodologies may affect the validity of the conclusions presented in this document.
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