initial

.gitignore

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+
+# Editors
+.vscode/
+.idea/
+
+# Vagrant
+.vagrant/
+
+# Mac/OSX
+.DS_Store
+
+# Windows
+Thumbs.db
+
+# Source for the following rules: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/github/gitignore/master/Python.gitignore
+# Byte-compiled / optimized / DLL files
+__pycache__/
+*.py[cod]
+*$py.class
+
+# C extensions
+*.so
+
+# Distribution / packaging
+.Python
+build/
+develop-eggs/
+dist/
+downloads/
+eggs/
+.eggs/
+lib/
+lib64/
+parts/
+sdist/
+var/
+wheels/
+*.egg-info/
+.installed.cfg
+*.egg
+MANIFEST
+
+# PyInstaller
+#  Usually these files are written by a python script from a template
+#  before PyInstaller builds the exe, so as to inject date/other infos into it.
+*.manifest
+*.spec
+
+# Installer logs
+pip-log.txt
+pip-delete-this-directory.txt
+
+# Unit test / coverage reports
+htmlcov/
+.tox/
+.nox/
+.coverage
+.coverage.*
+.cache
+nosetests.xml
+coverage.xml
+*.cover
+.hypothesis/
+.pytest_cache/
+
+# Translations
+*.mo
+*.pot
+
+# Django stuff:
+*.log
+local_settings.py
+db.sqlite3
+
+# Flask stuff:
+instance/
+.webassets-cache
+
+# Scrapy stuff:
+.scrapy
+
+# Sphinx documentation
+docs/_build/
+
+# PyBuilder
+target/
+
+# Jupyter Notebook
+.ipynb_checkpoints
+
+# IPython
+profile_default/
+ipython_config.py
+
+# pyenv
+.python-version
+
+# celery beat schedule file
+celerybeat-schedule
+
+# SageMath parsed files
+*.sage.py
+
+# Environments
+.env
+.venv
+env/
+venv/
+ENV/
+env.bak/
+venv.bak/
+
+# Spyder project settings
+.spyderproject
+.spyproject
+
+# Rope project settings
+.ropeproject
+
+# mkdocs documentation
+/site
+
+# mypy
+.mypy_cache/
+.dmypy.json
+dmypy.json

actual_results.csv

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+Nat,Lab,Grn,Act,NZF,TPM
+38.08,26.91,11.60,8.64,6.08,3.08

app.py

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+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+import scipy.stats as stats
+
+# Load expected results from CSV
+pollster_df = pd.read_csv('pollsters.csv', dtype={'Pollster': str, 'Nat': float, 'Lab': float, 'Grn': float, 'Act': float, 'NZF': float, 'TPM': float})
+
+# Load actual results from CSV
+actual_df = pd.read_csv('actual_results.csv', dtype={'Nat': float, 'Lab': float, 'Grn': float, 'Act': float, 'NZF': float, 'TPM': float})
+
+# Assuming there is only one row in actual results, extract the actual values
+actual_values = actual_df.iloc[0].values.astype(float)  # Ensure the data is float
+
+# Prepare a list to hold the results
+results = []
+
+# Calculate SSD, R^2, and Chi-Squared for each pollster
+for index, row in pollster_df.iterrows():
+    pollster_name = row['Pollster']
+    expected_values = row[1:].values.astype(float)  # Ensure the expected values are float
+
+    # Calculate SSD
+    ssd = np.sum((actual_values - expected_values) ** 2)
+
+    # Calculate R^2
+    mean_actual = np.mean(actual_values)
+    ss_total = np.sum((actual_values - mean_actual) ** 2)
+    ss_residual = np.sum((actual_values - expected_values) ** 2)
+    r_squared = 1 - (ss_residual / ss_total)
+
+    # Normalize expected values for Chi-Squared Test
+    observed_sum = np.sum(actual_values)
+    expected_sum = np.sum(expected_values)
+
+    if observed_sum != expected_sum:
+        scale_factor = observed_sum / expected_sum
+        expected_values = expected_values * scale_factor
+
+    # Calculate Chi-Squared
+    chi2, p_value = stats.chisquare(f_obs=actual_values, f_exp=expected_values)
+
+    # Append results to the list
+    results.append({
+        'Pollster': pollster_name,
+        'SSD': ssd,
+        'R^2': r_squared,
+        'Chi-Squared': chi2,
+        'P-Value': p_value
+    })
+
+# Create a DataFrame from the results
+results_df = pd.DataFrame(results)
+
+# Save results to a CSV file
+results_df.to_csv('polling_analysis_results.csv', index=False)
+
+print("Results have been saved to polling_analysis_results.csv")

polling_analysis_results.csv

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+Pollster,SSD,R^2,Chi-Squared,P-Value
+Newshub/Reid,24.74289999999999,0.9738166181952858,1.2514020129913814,0.9398520247581366
+1 News/Verian,9.416899999999996,0.9900348670480497,1.0750806622159517,0.9562855588314804
+TPU/Curia,8.000899999999994,0.9915333037161635,0.48405589248880365,0.992695473066957
+Talbot Mills,2.2069000000000005,0.9976646187267934,0.13866283519136488,0.9996375157201542
+Roy Morgan,80.04689999999998,0.9152929306999673,3.625606513416443,0.6044727353025233
+Guardian/Esntl,35.57289999999999,0.9623561174073808,2.2534329815298286,0.8130814264933469

pollsters.csv

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+Pollster,Nat,Lab,Grn,Act,NZF,TPM
+Newshub/Reid,34.5,27.5,14.9,8.8,6.8,2.7
+1 News/Verian,37.0,28.0,14.0,9.0,6.0,2.0
+TPU/Curia,35.9,27.9,10.6,9.1,6.9,3.7
+Talbot Mills,38.0,27.0,13.0,9.0,6.4,3.1
+Roy Morgan,30.5,26.0,15.0,11.5,7.5,3.0
+Guardian/Esntl,34.0,30.3,10.6,7.9,8.2,1.9

requirements.txt

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+numpy==2.1.2
+pandas==2.2.3
+python-dateutil==2.9.0.post0
+pytz==2024.2
+scipy==1.14.1
+six==1.16.0
+tzdata==2024.2