ARIMA-models-and-time-series-analysis

Cowboy Cigarettes (TM, est. 1890) is the US's longest-running cigarette manufacturer. Like many cigarette companies, however, they haven't always been that public about their sales and marketing data. The available post-war historical data runs for only 11 years after they resumed production in 1949; stopping in 1960 before resuming again in 1970. Data from 1949-1960 will be used to predict whether the manufacturer's cigarette sales actually increased, decreased, or stayed the same. Predicting the future, from the perspective of the past, is the goal of this project. Mean squared error will be used to assess several ARIMA models after stationarity, seasonality, residuals and trends are determined. Finally, future sales in the early 1960's will be predicted.