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thibautjombart committed Mar 26, 2020
2 parents 847bcfa + fbca747 commit b1e71be
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3 changes: 2 additions & 1 deletion app/app.R
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Expand Up @@ -99,11 +99,12 @@ ui <- navbarPage(
)),
tabPanel("Information",
fluidPage(style="padding-left: 40px; padding-right: 40px; padding-bottom: 40px;",
includeMarkdown("info.md"))),
includeMarkdown("include/info.md"))),
tabPanel("Acknowledgements",
fluidPage(style="padding-left: 40px; padding-right: 40px; padding-bottom: 40px;",
includeMarkdown("ack.md")))


)


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17 changes: 10 additions & 7 deletions app/info.md → app/include/info.md
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Expand Up @@ -26,21 +26,24 @@ The following values are specified by the user to tailor the model to a particul
- *Required*
* **Number of admissions on that date**
- *Required*
- Either critical admissions or non-critical admissions
* **Duration of the forecast**, i.e. how far ahead to predict
- Default: 14 days
* **Assumed reporting level in %**
- Default: 7 days
* **Assumed reporting level (%)**
- Default: 100%, i.e. all admissions reported
* **Assumed doubling time**, in days. This is the estimated time taken for the epidemic to double in size, and serves as a measure of transmission intensity.
- Default: *look for sensible number from literature*
* **Uncertainty in doubling time**, in days. Since the doubling time is an estimated parameter, it is necessary to incorporate the potential error associated with it. Lower / upper bound will be doubling time +/- this value.
- Default: *?*
* **Assumed doubling time (days)** This is the estimated time taken for the epidemic to double in size, and serves as a measure of transmission intensity.
- Default: 2
- Plausible ranges 1.8 - 9.3. See [Muniz-Rodriguez et al 2020](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.05.20020750v4.full.pdf), [Zhao et al 2020](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/02/29/2020.02.26.20028449.full.pdf), [Wu et al 2020](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7), [Li et al 2020](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316), [Cheng et al 2020](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s15010-020-01401-y.pdf) and [Granozio 2020](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.08661.pdf) for references.
* **Uncertainty in doubling time (days)** Since the doubling time is an estimated parameter, it is necessary to incorporate the potential error associated with it. Lower / upper bound will be doubling time +/- this value.
- Default: 1
* **Number of simulations** to incorporate uncertainty in the duration of stay.
Default: 50 simulated durations of stay per admission
Default: 10 simulated durations of stay per admission

### Pre-set model parameters

Two options for duration of hospitalisation are provided to match the results of <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext">Zhou et al 2020</a>:


* Long-stay: discretised Weibull (shape:*?*, scale:*?*) to aim for a median of 11
days, IQR 7-14
* Short-stay: discretised Weibull (shape:2, scale:10) to aim for a median of 8
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