Update Worldview.md

content/inquiries/Worldview.md

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-My worldview has evolved over the years, influenced by experience and observation.  To take stock of my 'worldview' today, I've distilled my personal beliefs into three 'observations' and from these a prediction of the near future that I hope to live to see.
+My worldview has evolved over the years, influenced by experience and observation.  My 'worldview' today is informed by my perspectives on tribes, empire and technology.   From these I have synthesized my personal prediction of a near future that I hope to live to see.
 
-**Observation #1: (Kith and Kin)** Humans in their current form have lived on Earth for around 200,000 years, in what Paul Seabright called a society of [‘murder, reciprocity, trust, hoarding and stealing’](https://www.amazon.com/Company-Strangers-Natural-History-Economic/dp/0691146462) that arose when early man was forced from the trees into the more brutal environment of the savannahs.  To understand the [soap opera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soap_opera) enveloping modern politics, academe, celebrity gossip, and war, look no further than these societies of [150](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar%27s_number) or so naked apes.  Take away the technology (see Observation #3) and little has changed.  Our brains have shrunk about 10% over this period, so if anything we are a bit stupider than our forebears.  If we had truly advanced beyond primitive society, we would be solving our problems and looking for efficient ways to implement those solutions.  Instead, our first choice as the arbiter of social problems is tribal warfare (see Observation #2).  Mechanized war gives us the power to act out our grievances from the comfort of our La-Z-Boy.  We declare war on countries, but also on arbitrary individuals (terrorists and criminals, but who decides who belongs to these groups?) and even bizarrely, on abstractions (cancer, drugs, communists, hate).  Our greatest and most expensive innovations have been arbitrary, amorphous conflicts of choice.  In the boredom of modern life, [War Is a Force that Gives Us Meaning](https://www.amazon.com/War-Force-that-Gives-Meaning/dp/1400034639).
+**Tribes:** Humans in their current form have lived on Earth for around 200,000 years, in what Paul Seabright called a society of [‘murder, reciprocity, trust, hoarding and stealing’](https://www.amazon.com/Company-Strangers-Natural-History-Economic/dp/0691146462) that arose when early man was forced from the trees into the more brutal environment of the savannahs.  To understand the [soap opera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soap_opera) enveloping modern politics, academe, celebrity gossip, and war, look no further than these societies of [150](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar%27s_number) or so naked apes.  Take away the technology and little has changed today.  Our brains have shrunk about 10% over this period, so if anything we are a bit stupider than our forebears.  If we had truly advanced beyond primitive society, we would be solving our problems and looking for efficient ways to implement those solutions.  Instead, our first choice as the arbiter of social problems is tribal warfare.  Mechanized war gives us the power to act out our grievances from the comfort of our La-Z-Boy.  We declare war on countries, but also on arbitrary individuals (terrorists and criminals, however arbitrarily defined) and even bizarrely, on abstractions (cancer, drugs, communists, hate).  Our greatest and most expensive innovations have been arbitrary, amorphous and ever more bloody conflicts of choice.  In the boredom of modern life, [War Is a Force that Gives Us Meaning](https://www.amazon.com/War-Force-that-Gives-Meaning/dp/1400034639).
 
 
-**Observation #2: (Tribes)** Humans are naturally tribal creatures, sharing this trait with all social animals.  Tribalism arises as a coping mechanism for inadequate brains and as a way of internalizing the trust that lubricates reciprocity. But to move beyond [Dunbar's number](https://theconversation.com/dunbars-number-why-my-theory-that-humans-can-only-maintain-150-friendships-has-withstood-30-years-of-scrutiny-160676) we needed inventions to overcome the limits of human consciousness.  That was religion, probably first practiced on an industrial scale by the Pharaohs.  Egyptian and Babylonian priests created elaborate cosmologies to predict crop cycles and used them to maintain order in large societies.  Ancient religions were the arbiters of law, science, and behavior, specializations that have since unbundled into their own professions.  They were as attractive for the entertainment they provided, as for the enlightenment they promised.  Religions offered tribal identity, which in large-scale societies could be fluid.   Rulers would interview priests to determine the best religion.  Constantine the Great went through four religions before choosing Christianity as his tool to command the Roman Empire. In a world where travel and communication were scarce, expensive, and time-consuming, religions were suggestive rather than absolute. Pope Innocent IV's papal bull _Ad Extirpanda_ was a clever innovation that changed that, allowing the Church to torture heretics (however defined).  The  truly devoted were enthusiastic practitioners, inventing many artful instruments of edification as the Protestant Reformation took off.  Religions have always been bloody affairs, and modern religions weaponize available technology for mind control -- very successfully. Religion is the defining technology of tribalism writ large.  Those who would be kings need it, and tailor religion to serve their profligacy.
+**Empire:** Humans are naturally tribal creatures, sharing this trait with all social animals.  Tribalism arises as a coping mechanism for inadequate brains and as a way of internalizing the trust that lubricates reciprocity. But to move beyond [Dunbar's number](https://theconversation.com/dunbars-number-why-my-theory-that-humans-can-only-maintain-150-friendships-has-withstood-30-years-of-scrutiny-160676) we needed inventions to overcome the limits of human consciousness.  That was religion, probably first practiced on an industrial scale by the Pharaohs.  Egyptian and Babylonian priests created elaborate cosmologies to predict crop cycles and used them to maintain order in large societies.  Ancient religions were the arbiters of law, science, and behavior, specializations that have since unbundled into their own professions.  They were as attractive for the entertainment they provided, as for the enlightenment they promised.  Religions offered tribal identity, which in large-scale societies could be fluid.   Rulers would interview priests to determine the best religion.  Constantine the Great went through four religions before choosing Christianity as his tool to command the Roman Empire. In a world where travel and communication were scarce, expensive, and time-consuming, religions were suggestive rather than absolute. Pope Innocent IV's papal bull _Ad Extirpanda_ was a clever innovation that changed that, allowing the Church to torture heretics (however defined).  The  truly devoted were enthusiastic practitioners, inventing many artful instruments of edification as the Protestant Reformation took off.  Religions have always been bloody affairs, and modern religions weaponize available technology for mind control -- very successfully.  As [Niel Gaiman](https://www.amazon.com/American-Gods-Neil-Gaiman/dp/0380973650/ref=asc_df_0380973650/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=312114918153&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=14977556065872423235&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9029978&hvtargid=pla-432992956489&psc=1&tag=&ref=&adgrpid=58874700661&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvadid=312114918153&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=14977556065872423235&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9029978&hvtargid=pla-432992956489&gclid=Cj0KCQiAj_CrBhD-ARIsAIiMxT-XHLTqXOsT14Fe8V3MQJwXzUGaGOXv28CTwfDOtML8lgJSjChpSd4aAt0BEALw_wcB) writes of a host of seductive new Gods to worship, manifestations of modern life and technology -- Internet, media, modern transport.  Religion is the defining technology of tribalism writ large and the handmaiden of empire.  Those who would be emperors need clergy, and tailor religion to serve messianic delusions.
 
 
 
-**Observation #3: (Technology)** Tool use has been in vogue throughout the animal kingdom since before humans. But two human innovations propelled technology to the forefront -- speech and social groups. Speech arose perhaps 60,000 years ago, initially mimicking animal sounds and depicting routes and waypoints (the speech areas in our brain were repurposed from pathfinding duties).  Human groups that could communicate and synchronize their actions could overpower edible creatures many times human size.  Good thing, as human brains require a lot of fat and protein to operate.  Only in the past 10,000 years have humans overcome the [Gossip Trap](https://www.theintrinsicperspective.com/p/the-gossip-trap) to harness and disseminate innovations.  Our wild ride started then, with new technologies serving up an [exponential growth](https://lucept.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/william-nordhaus-the-cost-of-light.pdf) in efficiency and a kaleidoscope of capabilities.  Track through any [history of the world](https://www.amazon.com/World-History-Simon-Sebag-Montefiore/dp/0525659536) and you see that family and tribal aspirations are thwarted by a [three-generation curse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancestral_sin).  Technology dictates the trajectory of human evolution, not families, or nations, or tribes.
+**Technology:** Tool use has been in vogue throughout the animal kingdom since before humans. But two human innovations propelled technology to the forefront -- speech and social groups. Speech arose perhaps 60,000 years ago, initially mimicking animal sounds and depicting routes and waypoints (the speech areas in our brain were repurposed from pathfinding duties).  Human groups that could communicate and synchronize their actions could overpower edible creatures many times human size.  Good thing, as human brains require a lot of fat and protein to operate.  Only in the past 10,000 years have humans overcome the [Gossip Trap](https://www.theintrinsicperspective.com/p/the-gossip-trap) to harness and disseminate innovations.  Our wild ride started then, with new technologies serving up an [exponential growth](https://lucept.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/william-nordhaus-the-cost-of-light.pdf) in efficiency and a kaleidoscope of capabilities.  Track through any [history of the world](https://www.amazon.com/World-History-Simon-Sebag-Montefiore/dp/0525659536) and you see that family and tribal aspirations are thwarted by a [three-generation curse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancestral_sin).  Technology dictates the trajectory of human evolution, not families, or nations, or tribes.
 
 In the 1950's [I. J. Good](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity) postulated the emergence of superintelligence surpassing human intelligence, which John von Neumann termed "the singularity."  [Vernor Vinge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernor_Vinge) popularized the idea and Raymond Kurzweil gave it a date of 2045 -- that's 20 years from now. I believe this is accurate, but what exactly would this mean?  A "singularity" is a term that mathematicians use to describe the collapse of a theory, e.g., a black hole.  The popular press, probably which has studied this no further than rerunning James Cameron's apocalyptic films on Netflix, concludes the worst -- collapse of civilization, inhuman abuse by untethered machines, and (horrors) the death of God.  This type of sensational nonsense sells copy but fails to acknowledge that we are already segueing into the singularity.  It's not just the much ballyhooed ChatGPT, but we see driverless Waymo cars carrying their riders and driving better than 90% of the drivers on the road, working 24 hours a day and never getting drunk or tired.  We find robots, humanoid or not, increasingly finding jobs at the warehouse or assembly-line, relieving humans of tedious or dangerous tasks.  At some point, it will become feasible to move all of the humans out of a corporation and have the corporation just run itself -- [Elon Musk's 'Alien Dreadnought'](https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-elon-musk-alien-dreadnought-factory-update).  If companies can run themselves profitably and efficiently, why not governments.  Governments, which are notoriously inefficient and dysfunctional, will run much, much better when machines are in control.