statistical ovr version two

src/common/constants.basketball.ts

@@ -275,6 +275,7 @@ const PLAYER_STATS_TABLES = {
 			"dbpm",
 			"bpm",
 			"vorp",
+			"sovr",
 		],
 	},
 	gameHighs: {

src/common/getCols.ts

@@ -1186,6 +1186,12 @@ const sportSpecificCols = bySport<{
 			sortType: "number",
 			title: "VORP",
 		},
+		"stat:sovr": {
+			desc: "Statistical Overall",
+			sortSequence: ["desc", "asc"],
+			sortType: "number",
+			title: "sOVR",
+		},
 		"stat:fgAtRim": {
 			desc: "At Rim Made",
 			sortSequence: ["desc", "asc"],

src/common/processPlayerStats.basketball.ts

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ const straightThrough = [
 	"obpm",
 	"dbpm",
 	"vorp",
+	"sovr",
 	"yearsWithTeam",
 	"astp",
 	"blkp",

src/ui/util/helpers.ts

@@ -243,6 +243,7 @@ const roundOverrides: Record<
 		obpm: "oneDecimalPlace",
 		dbpm: "oneDecimalPlace",
 		vorp: "oneDecimalPlace",
+		sovr: "noDecimalPlace",
 		fgMax: "noDecimalPlace",
 		fgaMax: "noDecimalPlace",
 		tpMax: "noDecimalPlace",

src/worker/core/player/stats.basketball.ts

@@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ const stats = {
 		"obpm",
 		"dbpm",
 		"vorp",
+		"sovr",
 	] as const,
 	raw: [
 		"gp",

src/worker/core/player/value.ts

@@ -82,10 +82,6 @@ const value = (
 		pr.pot = pr.pot - options.ovrMean + defaultOvrMean;
 	}
 
-	// From linear regression OVR ~ PER
-	const slope = 1.531;
-	const intercept = 31.693;
-
 	// 1. Account for stats (and current ratings if not enough stats)
 	const ps = p.stats.filter(playerStats => !playerStats.playoffs);
 	let current = pr.ovr;
@@ -94,36 +90,39 @@ const value = (
 	if (isSport("basketball") && ps.length > 0) {
 		const ps1 = ps.at(-1); // Most recent stats
 
+		// weights and values for the last few years
+		// this is a prior
+		let m0 = 2000;
+		let v0 = pr.ovr;
+
+		let m1 = 0;
+		let v1 = 0;
+		const w1 = 1;
+
+		let m2 = 0;
+		let v2 = 0;
+		const w2 = 0.1;
+
 		// PER may be undefined for exhibition game players from old historical seasons. See ps2 check below too.
-		if (Object.hasOwn(ps1, "per")) {
-			if (ps.length === 1 || ps[0].min >= 2000) {
+		if (Object.hasOwn(ps1, "sovr")) {
+			if (ps.length >= 1 && ps1.sovr > 0) {
 				// Only one year of stats
-				current = intercept + slope * ps1.per;
-
-				if (ps1.min < 2000) {
-					current = (current * ps1.min) / 2000 + pr.ovr * (1 - ps1.min / 2000);
-				}
-			} else {
+				v1 = ps1.sovr;
+				m1 = w1 * ps1.min;
+				//console.log("ONE YEAR");
+			}
+			if (ps.length >= 2) {
 				// Two most recent seasons
 				const ps2 = ps[ps.length - 2];
 
-				if (Object.hasOwn(ps2, "per")) {
-					if (ps1.min + ps2.min > 0) {
-						current =
-							intercept +
-							(slope * (ps1.per * ps1.min + ps2.per * ps2.min)) /
-								(ps1.min + ps2.min);
-
-						if (ps1.min + ps2.min < 2000) {
-							current =
-								(current * (ps1.min + ps2.min)) / 2000 +
-								pr.ovr * (1 - (ps1.min + ps2.min) / 2000);
-						}
-					}
+				if (Object.hasOwn(ps2, "sovr") && ps2.sovr > 0) {
+					v2 = ps2.sovr;
+					m2 = w2 * ps2.min;
+					//console.log("TWO YEAR");
 				}
 			}
-
-			current = 0.8 * pr.ovr + 0.2 * current; // Include some part of the ratings
+			const total_w = m0 + m1 + m2;
+			current = (m0 / total_w) * v0 + (m1 / total_w) * v1 + (m2 / total_w) * v2;
 		}
 	}
 

src/worker/db/getCopies/playersPlus.ts

@@ -385,6 +385,7 @@ export const weightByMinutes = bySport({
 		"obpm",
 		"dbpm",
 		"bpm",
+		"sovr",
 	],
 	football: [],
 	hockey: [],

src/worker/util/advStats.basketball.ts

@@ -149,6 +149,51 @@ const calculatePER = (
 		ewa: EWA,
 	};
 };
+// just for fun
+const calculateSOVR = (
+	players: any[],
+	teamsByTid: Record<string, Team>,
+	league: any,
+) => {
+	const paceAdj: Record<number, number> = {};
+	for (const t of Object.values(teamsByTid)) {
+		paceAdj[t.tid] = t.stats.pace === 0 ? 1 : league.pace / t.stats.pace;
+	}
+
+	const sOvr: number[] = [];
+
+	for (let i = 0; i < players.length; i++) {
+		const t_pace = paceAdj[players[i].tid];
+
+		const p_mp = t_pace * (players[i].stats.min + 5);
+		const p_orb = (36 * players[i].stats.orb) / p_mp;
+		const p_drb = (36 * players[i].stats.drb) / p_mp;
+		const p_trb = p_orb + p_drb;
+		const p_ast = (36 * players[i].stats.ast) / p_mp;
+		const p_tov = (36 * players[i].stats.tov) / p_mp;
+		const p_stl = (36 * players[i].stats.stl) / p_mp;
+		const p_blk = (36 * players[i].stats.blk) / p_mp;
+		const p_pf = (36 * players[i].stats.pf) / p_mp;
+		const p_pts = (36 * players[i].stats.pts) / p_mp;
+		const p_pm = (36 * players[i].stats.pm) / p_mp;
+		const p_const = 1;
+
+		// normalized
+		const pa_sovr =
+			37.97 * p_const +
+			0.54 * p_trb +
+			0.64 * p_ast +
+			-1.38 * p_tov +
+			5.23 * p_stl +
+			2.3 * p_blk +
+			-2.6 * p_pf +
+			0.96 * p_pts;
+		0.27 * p_pm; // normal
+		sOvr[i] = pa_sovr;
+	}
+
+	return { sovr: sOvr };
+};
 
 // https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html
 /**
@@ -749,6 +794,7 @@ const advStats = async () => {
 			"pf",
 			"drb",
 			"pts",
+			"pm",
 		],
 		ratings: ["pos"],
 		season: g.get("season"),
@@ -863,6 +909,7 @@ const advStats = async () => {
 		...calculatePercentages(players, teamsByTid),
 		...calculateRatings(players, teamsByTid, league),
 		...calculateBPM(players, teamsByTid, league),
+		...calculateSOVR(players, teamsByTid, league),
 	};
 	await advStatsSave(players, playersRaw, updatedStats);
 };

src/worker/views/roster.ts

@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@ const updateRoster = async (
 	) {
 		const stats = bySport({
 			baseball: ["gp", "keyStats", "war"],
-			basketball: ["gp", "min", "pts", "trb", "ast", "per"],
+			basketball: ["gp", "min", "pts", "trb", "ast", "per", "sovr"],
 			football: ["gp", "keyStats", "av"],
 			hockey: ["gp", "amin", "keyStats", "ops", "dps", "ps"],
 		});