CBO Feb 2024 update

cps_stage1/stage1.py

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
 
 def main(syr=2014):
     SYR = str(syr)  # Start year of CPS
-    EYR = 2033  # Last year in our extrapolation
+    EYR = 2034  # Last year in our extrapolation
 
     # Read in state SOI estimates
     soi_estimates = pd.read_csv(

cps_stage1/stage_2_targets.csv

@@ -1,24 +1,24 @@
-,2014,2015,2016,2017,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033
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+,2014,2015,2016,2017,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034
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+Joint,55128595,57272012,57201828,57987204,57069122,56986429,57984256,58893878,59687730,60393376,61104535,61788129,62482750,63182883,63888529,64605200,65327385,66060595,66799319,67543555,68304329,69065104,69842417,70619730
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+Pension,663223262,689991999,693626543,729187412,776568117,800178866,846471849,889515039,925594384,996293984,1069779122,1093456192,1156992981,1219534934,1278031226,1337787642,1397212446,1458626920,1521102551,1586827977,1654941006,1725839572,1798329875,1872743525
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cps_stage2/solver.jl

@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ function Solve_func(year, tol)
 
 end
 
-year_list = [x for x in 2014:2033]
+year_list = [x for x in 2014:2034]
 tol = 0.70
 
 # Run solver function for all years and tolerances (in order)

cps_stage2/stage2.py

@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@
 STAGE_1_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "puf_stage1", "Stage_I_factors.csv")
 STAGE_2_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "cps_stage1", "stage_2_targets.csv")
 START_YEAR = 2014
-END_YEAR = 2033
+END_YEAR = 2034
 
 # Read hashes used to see which years can be skipped
 with open(Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "datahashes.json")) as f:

docs/book/content/methods/CBO_Baseline_Updating_Instructions.md

@@ -47,9 +47,9 @@ As previously mentioned, most of the variables we used can be found in the
 To manually update these variables download the latest file and copy/paste the 
 specific variables.
 
-Previous Document: May 2022
+Previous Document: February 2023
 
-Current Document: February 2023
+Current Document: February 2024
 
 | Variable | Name In CBO Document                                |
 |----------|-----------------------------------------------------|
@@ -70,9 +70,9 @@ Current Document: February 2023
 
 Source: [Revenue Projections, By Category (CBO)](https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#7)
 
-Previous: [February 2023](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2023-02/51138-2023-02-Revenue.xlsx)
+Previous: [February 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/51138-2024-02-Revenue.xlsx)
 
-Current: [February 2023](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2023-02/51138-2023-02-Revenue.xlsx)
+Current: [February 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/51138-2024-02-Revenue.xlsx)
 
 In the revenue projections file, the data is in the `Capital Gains Realizations`
 tab under the `Capital Gains Realizations` column.
@@ -81,9 +81,9 @@ tab under the `Capital Gains Realizations` column.
 
 Source: [IRS Publication 6187 Table 1B](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/projections-of-federal-tax-return-filings)
 
-Previous: [Fall 2021 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/21projpub6187tables.xls)
+Previous: [Fall 2022 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/22projpub6187tables.xlsx)
 
-Current: [Fall 2022 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/22projpub6187tables.xlsx)
+Current: [Fall 2023 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/23projpub6187tables.xlsx)
 
 The projections in the publication typically end a few years before the
 10-year projections do. We use the growth rate from the final year in the
@@ -96,9 +96,9 @@ Source: [OASI Trust Fund Annual Trustees Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/)
 Table VI.C4. Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Table VI.C4, Column:
 `Scheduled Benefits: Intermediate Level`
 
-Previous: [2019 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2019/tr2019.pdf)
+Previous: [2023 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2023/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
 
-Current: [2020 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2020/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
+Current: [2023 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2023/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
 
 Projections are taken directly from the `Scheduled Benefits: Intermediate Level`
 column of this table.
@@ -108,7 +108,7 @@ column of this table.
 Source: [BLS Database](http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAM?output_view=pct_1mth)
 
 Series ID: CUSR0000SAM
-Access Date: March 07 2023
+Access Date: 
 
 Manual Instructions:
 
@@ -124,9 +124,9 @@ Manual Instructions:
 
 Source: [CBO Unemployment Compensation projections](https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs#24)
 
-Previous: [March 2020](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-03/51316-2020-03-unemployment.pdf)
+Previous: [February 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/51316-2024-02-unemployment.xlsx)
 
-Current: [May 2022](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2022-05/51316-2022-05-unemployment.xlsx)
+Current: [February 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/51316-2024-02-unemployment.xlsx)
 
 Note: Change the `Total Benefits` number from the table to be in terms of
 billions rather than millions of dollars

environment.yml

@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ dependencies:
 - python-chromedriver-binary
 - tabulate
 - pre-commit
-- taxcalc>=3.0.0
+- taxcalc>=3.5.0
 - pip
 - pip:
   - requests-html