Treat HP campaign args same as HP discount args

k8s/job.jsonnet

@@ -45,10 +45,32 @@ local job(name, args_excl_output) = {
     'extended_boiler_upgrade_scheme',
     '--intervention',
     'heat_pump_campaign',
-    '--campaign-target-heat-pump-awareness',
-    '0.8',
-    '--heat-pump-awareness-campaign-date',
-    '2028-01-01',
+    '--campaign-target-heat-pump-awareness-date',
+    '2028-01-01:0.5',
+    '--campaign-target-heat-pump-awareness-date',
+    '2034-01-01:0.75',
+    '--intervention',
+    'gas_oil_boiler_ban',
+    '--gas-oil-boiler-ban-date',
+    '2035-01-01',
+    '--gas-oil-boiler-ban-announce-date',
+    '2025-01-01',
+    '--heat-pump-awareness',
+    '0.25',
+    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-gas',
+    '0.0682',
+    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity',
+    '0.182',
+    '--heat-pump-installer-count',
+    '10000000000'
+  ]),
+  job('01b-%s-max-policy-extended-bus' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
+    '--intervention',
+    'extended_boiler_upgrade_scheme',
+    '--intervention',
+    'heat_pump_campaign',
+    '--campaign-target-heat-pump-awareness-date',
+    '2028-01-01:0.75',
     '--intervention',
     'gas_oil_boiler_ban',
     '--gas-oil-boiler-ban-date',

simulation/__main__.py

@@ -179,30 +179,58 @@ def check_string_is_isoformat_datetime(string) -> str:
     parser.add_argument("--price-gbp-per-kwh-oil", type=float, default=0.068)
 
     parser.add_argument(
-        "--heat-pump-awareness-campaign-date",
-        default=datetime.datetime(2028, 1, 1),
-        type=convert_to_datetime,
-    )
-
-    parser.add_argument(
-        "--campaign-target-heat-pump-awareness",
-        default=0.8,
-        type=float_between_0_and_1,
+        "--campaign-target-heat-pump-awareness-date",
+        action="append",
+        type=map_string_to_datetime_float_tuple,
+        help="A factor by which heat pump awareness will increase by a specified date.",
+        metavar="YYYY-MM-DD:heat_pump_awareness",
     )
 
     return parser.parse_args(args)
 
 
+def check_parsed_target_heat_pump_awareness(
+    campaigns: dict, initial_awareness: float
+) -> bool:
+    """Determine whether target heat pump awareness increases over the model horizon
+
+    Args:
+        campaigns (dict): modelled heat pump awareness campaigns
+        initial_awareness (float): initial (t=0) heat pump awareness
+
+    Returns:
+        bool: True if target awareness values are set to increase over model horizon
+    """
+
+    campaigns_date_ordered = sorted(campaigns)
+    _, awareness_factors = zip(*campaigns_date_ordered)
+    awareness_factors = list(awareness_factors)
+    awareness_factors.insert(0, initial_awareness)
+
+    increasing_awareness = all(
+        [
+            awareness_factors[i - 1] < awareness_factors[i]
+            for i in range(1, len(awareness_factors))
+        ]
+    )
+    return increasing_awareness
+
+
 def validate_args(args):
     if args.gas_oil_boiler_ban_announce_date > args.gas_oil_boiler_ban_date:
         raise ValueError(
             f"Boiler ban announcement date must be on or before ban date, got gas_oil_boiler_ban_date:{args.gas_oil_boiler_ban_date}, gas_oil_boiler_ban_announce_date:{args.gas_oil_boiler_ban_announce_date}"
         )
 
-    if args.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness < args.heat_pump_awareness:
-        raise ValueError(
-            f"Campaign target awareness must be greater than or equal to the population heat pump awareness, got campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness:{args.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness}, heat_pump_awareness:{args.heat_pump_awareness}"
+    if args.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness_date is not None:
+        # Check that target awareness inputs increase over the model horizon
+        increasing_awareness = check_parsed_target_heat_pump_awareness(
+            args.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness_date, args.heat_pump_awareness
         )
+        if not increasing_awareness:
+            raise ValueError(
+                f"Campaign target awareness must be greater than or equal to the population heat pump awareness, got campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness:{args.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness_date}, heat_pump_awareness:{args.heat_pump_awareness}"
+            )
 
 
 if __name__ == "__main__":
@@ -243,8 +271,7 @@ def validate_args(args):
             args.heat_pump_installer_count,
             args.heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate,
             ENGLAND_WALES_ANNUAL_NEW_BUILDS if args.include_new_builds else None,
-            args.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness,
-            args.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date,
+            args.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness_date,
         )
 
         with smart_open.open(args.history_file, "w") as file:

simulation/agents.py

@@ -633,7 +633,6 @@ def proba_of_becoming_heat_pump_aware_required_to_reach_campaign_target(
     def update_heat_pump_awareness(self, model) -> None:
         if (
             InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_CAMPAIGN in model.interventions
-            and model.current_datetime >= model.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date
             and model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep
             < model.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness
             and not self.is_heat_pump_aware

simulation/costs.py

@@ -157,20 +157,20 @@
 
 # Grant cap is set to £250M for 2024-’25, SOURCE: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/boiler-upgrade-scheme-budget-increase-and-approval-to-over-allocate-vouchers/approval-to-increase-the-budget-and-over-allocate-vouchers-for-the-boiler-upgrade-scheme-november-2024
 # Grant cap is set to £1.54B for 2025-’28, SOURCE: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/families-business-and-industry-to-get-energy-efficiency-support
-# Assume limited spend of £515M per annum during 2025-’28, unless the grant was underspent in year in which case the underspent amount gets carried forward to the future years
-# Assume £515M PA grant will be extended to 2035.
+# Assume limited spend of per annum during 2025-’28, unless the grant was underspent in year in which case the underspent amount gets carried forward to the future years
+# Assume grant will be extended to 2035.
 BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME_GRANT_CAP = {
     2024: 250_000_000,
-    2025: 765_000_000,
-    2026: 1280_000_000,
+    2025: 545_000_000,
+    2026: 1025_000_000,
     2027: 1795_000_000,
-    2028: 2310_000_000,
-    2029: 2825_000_000,
-    2030: 3340_000_000,
-    2031: 3855_000_000,
-    2032: 4370_000_000,
-    2033: 4885_000_000,
-    2034: 5400_000_000,
+    2028: 2565_000_000,
+    2029: 3335_000_000,
+    2030: 4105_000_000,
+    2031: 4875_000_000,
+    2032: 5645_000_000,
+    2033: 6415_000_000,
+    2034: 7185_000_000,
 }
 
 

simulation/model.py

@@ -47,8 +47,9 @@ def __init__(
         heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate: float,
         annual_new_builds: Optional[Dict[int, int]],
         heat_pump_awareness: float,
-        campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness: float,
-        heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date: datetime.datetime,
+        heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule: Optional[
+            List[Tuple[datetime.datetime, float]]
+        ],
         population_heat_pump_awareness: List[bool],
     ):
         self.start_datetime = start_datetime
@@ -79,8 +80,11 @@ def __init__(
         self.heat_pump_installations_at_current_step = 0
         self.annual_new_builds = annual_new_builds
         self.heat_pump_awareness = heat_pump_awareness
-        self.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness = campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness
-        self.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date = heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date
+        self.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule = (
+            sorted(heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule)
+            if heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule
+            else None
+        )
 
         self.population_heat_pump_awareness = population_heat_pump_awareness
         self.num_households_heat_pump_aware = sum(population_heat_pump_awareness)
@@ -211,6 +215,24 @@ def heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep(self) -> float:
             + self.num_households_switching_to_heat_pump_aware
         ) / self.household_count
 
+    @property
+    def campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness(self) -> float:
+
+        if self.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule:
+
+            step_dates, awareness_factors = zip(
+                *self.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule
+            )
+
+            index = bisect(step_dates, self.current_datetime)
+            current_date_precedes_first_campaign_date = index == 0
+
+            if current_date_precedes_first_campaign_date:
+                return self.heat_pump_awareness
+            return awareness_factors[index - 1]
+
+        return self.heat_pump_awareness
+
     def increment_timestep(self):
         self.current_datetime += self.step_interval
         self.boiler_upgrade_scheme_cumulative_spend_gbp += (
@@ -282,8 +304,9 @@ def create_and_run_simulation(
     heat_pump_installer_count: int,
     heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate: float,
     annual_new_builds: Dict[int, int],
-    campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness: float,
-    heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date: datetime.datetime,
+    heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule: Optional[
+        List[Tuple[datetime.datetime, float]]
+    ],
 ):
 
     population_heat_pump_awareness = [
@@ -308,8 +331,7 @@ def create_and_run_simulation(
         heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate=heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate,
         annual_new_builds=annual_new_builds,
         heat_pump_awareness=heat_pump_awareness,
-        campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness=campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness,
-        heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date=heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date,
+        heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule=heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule,
         population_heat_pump_awareness=population_heat_pump_awareness,
     )
 

simulation/tests/common.py

@@ -58,8 +58,7 @@ def model_factory(**model_attributes):
         "heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate": 0,
         "annual_new_builds": None,
         "heat_pump_awareness": 0.5,
-        "campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness": 0.8,
-        "heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date": datetime.datetime(2028, 1, 1),
+        "heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule": None,
         "population_heat_pump_awareness": [],
     }
 

simulation/tests/test_agents.py

@@ -705,8 +705,10 @@ def test_heat_pump_awareness_updated_after_successful_campaign(
             start_datetime=datetime.datetime(2025, 1, 1),
             step_interval=relativedelta(months=1),
             interventions=[InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_CAMPAIGN],
-            heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date=datetime.datetime(2025, 3, 1),
-            campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness=1.0,
+            heat_pump_awareness=0.0,
+            heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule=[
+                (datetime.datetime(2025, 3, 1), 1.0)
+            ],
         )
         agent = household_factory(is_heat_pump_aware=False)
         model.add_agents([agent])
@@ -751,9 +753,10 @@ def test_heat_pump_awareness_does_not_increase_when_campaign_target_is_same_as_c
             start_datetime=datetime.datetime(2025, 1, 1),
             step_interval=relativedelta(months=1),
             interventions=[InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_CAMPAIGN],
-            heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date=datetime.datetime(2025, 2, 1),
+            heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule=[
+                (datetime.datetime(2025, 2, 1), 0.0)
+            ],
             heat_pump_awareness=0.0,
-            campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness=0.0,
             population_heat_pump_awareness=[False],
         )
         agent = household_factory(is_heat_pump_aware=False)

simulation/tests/test_main.py

@@ -10,7 +10,11 @@
 
 import simulation.__main__
 from abm import read_jsonlines
-from simulation.__main__ import parse_args, validate_args
+from simulation.__main__ import (
+    check_parsed_target_heat_pump_awareness,
+    parse_args,
+    validate_args,
+)
 from simulation.constants import InterventionType
 
 
@@ -299,11 +303,17 @@ def test_campaign_target_less_than_heat_pump_awareness_raises_value_error(
         args = parse_args(
             [
                 *mandatory_local_args,
-                "--campaign-target-heat-pump-awareness",
-                "0.1",
+                "--campaign-target-heat-pump-awareness-date",
+                "2024-03-01:0.1",
                 "--heat-pump-awareness",
                 "0.5",
             ]
         )
+
+        increasing_awareness = check_parsed_target_heat_pump_awareness(
+            args.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness_date, args.heat_pump_awareness
+        )
+        assert not increasing_awareness
+
         with pytest.raises(ValueError):
             validate_args(args)

simulation/tests/test_model.py

@@ -245,6 +245,36 @@ def test_model_installs_heat_pumps_in_existing_builds_when_there_is_capacity(sel
         assert 0 < capacity_new_build < capacity_existing_build
         assert model.has_heat_pump_installation_capacity
 
+    def test_heat_pump_awareness_campaign_is_intial_awareness_if_no_campaign_schedule_passed(
+        self,
+    ):
+
+        model = model_factory(heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule=None)
+
+        assert model.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness == model.heat_pump_awareness
+
+    def test_heat_pump_awareness_changes_when_crosses_campaign_schedule_date(
+        self,
+    ):
+
+        model = model_factory(
+            start_datetime=datetime.datetime(2024, 2, 1),
+            heat_pump_awareness=0.25,
+            heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule=[
+                (datetime.datetime(2024, 2, 2), 0.5),
+                (datetime.datetime(2024, 2, 3), 0.7),
+            ],
+            step_interval=datetime.timedelta(minutes=1440),
+        )
+
+        assert model.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness == 0.25
+
+        model.increment_timestep()
+        assert model.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness == 0.5
+
+        model.increment_timestep()
+        assert model.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness == 0.7
+
 
 class test_household_agents:
 
@@ -344,9 +374,10 @@ def test_all_household_agents_become_heat_pump_aware_with_100_per_cent_campaign_
             start_datetime=datetime.datetime(2025, 1, 1),
             step_interval=relativedelta(months=1),
             interventions=[InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_CAMPAIGN],
-            heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date=datetime.datetime(2025, 2, 1),
             heat_pump_awareness=0.0,
-            campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness=campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness,
+            heat_pump_awareness_campaign_schedule=[
+                (datetime.datetime(2025, 2, 1), campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness)
+            ],
             population_heat_pump_awareness=population_heat_pump_awareness,
         )
         model.add_agents([household_agents])